Pre-Mailbag: Draft Philosophy
by Dave on May 24, 2010 11:48 PM PDT
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PrintI'm working on catching up on the mailbag questions, which is an enormous task. Hopefully I'll have something up tomorrow. However I'll tackle one question that's been repeated a few times: what I think the Blazers should do in the draft.
I need to do some more research and talk to a few people before I'm ready to come out with a list of specific names, so I'll hold off on that. But I can tell you that the overriding concern when drafting at #22 is to get the best player available. While this is generally the case I think you can make an argument that enough good (or at least comparable) players are around in the low single-digits and higher teens that you worry about position and skills. By the 20's you're just hoping a guy can play, either right away at a modest level or someday at a high one. Sure thing or project, you take the best one you can find and call it good.
This fits in pretty well with Portland's situation at the moment. You can really make a case for any position being important. We have no idea which Blazers will get moved in the next couple of years but it's a sure bet that some of them will. Even not knowing specifics certain situations are clear:
- If Greg Oden can't play the 22nd pick won't make much difference. But even if he can, Joel Przybilla might not be more than a year with this team and Marcus Camby won't be more than two. A project center slated to be an eventual back-up would fit in well.
- Camby is probably the main reserve power forward as well. After him you have Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham, neither of whom are sure things at the position or even in the league. Power forwards are also among the easier players to pick up late in the first round.
- The Blazers appear to have solid rotations at small forward and shooting guard with Batum/Webster and Roy/Fernandez/Bayless. How many of those players will be around, though? Reserve shooting guard is particularly in question. An athletic wing scorer with some height could help the Blazers down the road.
- As much as it turns my stomach to suggest drafting another point guard, this is the least secure position of all. Andre Miller is a short-term solution. Jerryd Bayless is an open question at point. Even if he is the eventual answer, who backs him up?
I believe the Blazers will explore moving up, as the draft has been at the heart of their philosophy for Kevin Pritchard's entire tenure. This is what they do best. But the statute of limitations on how much rookies can help this team is starting to run out. I don't see a pressing need for another young guy to rely on. Moving way up implies just that. However you also have to consider that Portland has movable pieces to do just that: young, inexpensive, talented players. As we mentioned on last week's podcast, Portland's financial situation may preclude them from keeping those players as they exit their rookie contracts. Resetting a couple of them for a promising young draftee may make sense. In the end, I don't believe this will happen though.
Moving out of the first round is a possibility for those same financial reasons. The Blazers had success in the second round last year. But Portland has historically been a buyer of picks, not a seller.
Drafting and stashing another European player is also an option. This technique is starting to make me nervous, however. At a certain point you do need productive players coming into your system, even if they are lower-tier players. Nicolas Batum has been the great success story. Is there another like him out there? But then you have to look at Sergio Rodriguez...gone. Rudy Fernandez...discontented. Joel Freeland, Petteri Koponen, and Victor Claver...not over here yet. Maybe you say that in two years when some of the current Blazers are ready to move on these guys will be ready to fill in. But that's still a big "if". Do they have the talent? Will they sign the contract? How long will it take them to assimilate?
The most likely route is also the most practical: just take a guy you can get at 22 and develop him in your system, in this league from the start. Maybe he doesn't set the world on fire. But maybe you don't need that. If he fills a spot eventually, good enough.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Quick question for you Dave
Are we going to do another Blazers’ Edge mock draft this year?
"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
-Dave
As for the Blazers...They are officially the NBA equivalent of a movie serial killer
-basketbawful
To me the obvious is,
how far can we move up with Rudy + #22 + either euro or 2nd round pick. If we can move into the mid lottery 4-12 area great. Otherwise BPA or trade out of the 1st round altogether, use the MLE & above all good health next year. I would sacrifice playoff seeding to be healthy in the postseason. Go Blazers!
Somebody step up! - Mike Rice
Dave
Are you ever going to review Nate’s performance?
by thebigoutdoors on May 25, 2010 12:58 AM PDT reply actions
been wondering the same thing since the last day of the season
where is Dave’s opinion!!!!
If there is one thing we learned this year, it's that no position is secure.
If that equates to a strong draft pick, or a wheel and deal that puts a solid 2nd year or vet in a hole I dunno. If we do draft, however, I’d love to see a genuine understudy at the 2/3. I know that sounds silly, but if Rudy walks, and Rex goes all out 1/2, it would be great to have a young guy content to fill Roy’s big ole shoes.
Marty? Nope. He’s a pop guy. Improving his hustle, yes, but not enough off the dribble. Ditto Rudy. Dante’s a 3/4.
I think we can find that at 22.
If not, gimme a 7-foot sleeper. Somebody for Greg to abuse/be Center insurance.
Ah heck, I dunno.
facebook.com/year5000
by Y5k on May 25, 2010 12:59 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I agree with the generalities
We all don’t have access to a team of scouts and the use of advanced statistics to get into KP’s head. It’s hard to know who the best kids coming out of school or overseas are that will also fit our system, culture, character and role requirements.
I have faith that KP will “wow” me with whoever he does pick and trade for.
Quincy Pondexter.
Not like the Utah Jazz... it's about REAL jazz. Go Dawgs, Go Blazers, Go Tarheels!
by jazzaholic17 on May 25, 2010 1:10 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Little brother of Buster Poindexter?
Not so sure that’s a good idea … but I hear when he lights up, he gets (wait for it) HOT HOT HOT!
facebook.com/year5000
Let's make it another one of these drafts ...
… where Santa brings us the best two players overall and we walk away smiling, Roy and Aldridge in tow. Or maybe that comes via a draft-day trade this year.
facebook.com/year5000
'course, that means a few of our boys in black and red
might have to hit the road
(sorry, but once I start up a Buster Poindexter binge, it’s an all night party )
facebook.com/year5000
Hit the road jack
with that humor.
"I come to you now, at the turn of the tide." -- Brandon "Gandalf" Roy, April 24th, 2010
If we were to move up it would have to be cheap...
No more than like a combo of Rudy+Bayless+Martell+Picks.. in which case I would be looking to fill their shoes which honestly doesn’t make much sense to me unless they give a killer workout and would be an obvious improvement with our core.
If we were looking at a slasher for the SG position, I could see Jordan Crawford and Sylven Landesberg being that
And they would likely still be there for our first or even second pick. Or there are a few combo PG/SG players available especially in the 2nd round, but that role is held down by Jerryd until further notice and we have one stored away in Europe with Petteri.
If we are looking for a true center to back up and not moving high up in the draft, my vote would probably go to Solomon Alabi who is not a polished player at all but has just the same upside as Hasheem Thabeet last year, only he’ll go about 20 picks later.
I wish Joel Freeland would come over sooner rather than later to fill the backup PF/C position, but he’s probably at least a year away wanting to see the roster clear up. He’s playing better and better in the ACB (top 5 in PER) and the playoffs and just helped to eliminate fellow Blazers stashed pick Victor Claver and his team.
Why don't the internationals come over for summer league?
Play with the new draftee’s and rooks too. We could run a stacked lineup. I would be looking for:
STARTERS
PG: Patty Mills
SG: Draft Pick X
SF: Victor Claver
PF: Joel Freeland
C: Jeff Pendergraph
SECOND UNIT
PG/SG: Petteri Koponen
SF/PF: Dante Cunningham
C: Draft Pick Y
The Blazers have a ton of talent stacked on the roster and overseas. If you include all of the players the team has the rights for the only positions that aren’t four deep are SG and True Center. Coupled with other factors such as: Rudy’s mojo, Bayless having short arms, Oden’s questionable future and Camby’s advanced age, the 2 and 5 are the only positions we could really justify drafting players at with the roster as currently constructed.
According to KP, they are in discussion with the NBA and FIBA if players under contract abroad can even play in summer league (if they want to). Probably Portland would have to at least insure them, like international teams have to insure players for European/World/Olympics tournaments.
Koponen currently has a stress fracture in his foot and will be out until about August before playing internationally for Finland in the Eurobasket Qualifier (not qualified for the world championships).
Mills will play PG
Cunningham, Pendergraph and the draft choice(s) will also be on the SL roster
(it’s amusing that you would put Dante in the 2nd unit…6th man for improved bench scoring—in the summer league?)
Claver, Freeland and Koponen are not coming over, per KP a few weeks ago
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Eric Bledsoe
A true point guard that played # 2 next to Wall at Kentucky…This would allow several options. Bledsoe could play either position and is better than Bayless at point guard…Bayless could possibly move to 2 and backup Roy (a more natural position for him). If they trade Bayless then Bledsoe would be a better fit in a 3 guard rotation than Bayless. I say this, because I think Bledsoe is a better player than Bayless (especially at point guard)…however , although he is a sleeper in the draft, he could go as high as 9 or 10 and we may have to deal up to get him.
the issue, it seems, is that we have no attractive players to deal with…Most teams would want Batum…but Bayless, Rudy, & Webster have little value…
I don’t know if they are interested in Bledsoe or not, because KP has a history of alternative and hidden agendas when it comes to acquiring players (IMO)moving up in the draft may not be that costly this year, because the concensus is, that after # 5, the best you could do is get a decent rotation player. Most of the teams in the lottery are there because they need a compliment of players and not just one guy. So getting some multiple players for one unproven guy, may make sense to them. Especially if jockying for financial position is involved (extra team deals more likely)
Portland has had an excellent draft record of acquiring young prospect players with potential, but getting difference makers is essentially an educated crap shoot. Especially when you get automatically introduced to the afterlife=durability and team/style fit.
( IMO ) Concerns for us would be point guard and center. Only because of the importance I would put on these two positions…Bledsoe could be a good route to take in the draft because he may be under the radar and cost us less than getting into the top five. We have plenty of average to above average players with potential…If we are indeed looking to move up, we have to be looking at getting an immediate rotation player that won’t ride the bench.
I like Bledsoe
but he played more of a shooting guard 2 role at Kentucky, and they say he’s a small 2 more than a PG.
who knows…
Elitism - It's lonely at the top. But it's comforting to look down upon everyone at the bottom.
by thankyouforblaze on May 25, 2010 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Our ACB players, IMHO:
Claver will be 22 years old in August, and he´s far from ready to play in the NBA. I seriously doubt he´d be able to contribute for an NBA team if he ever goes to the NBA. He´s a very good guy, but he doesn´t have killer instinct, and it will harm his career. Although he´d like to give it a try in the NBA, he´ll probably play in Europe for his whole career.
Freeland is not much better than Dante.
We basically saved money drafting these players.
I could see Freeland playing well together with Dante, or in a rotation. Dante is a PF/SF, while Freeland is considerably taller and would be a PF/C. As for Claver, yeah he’s not yet the leader of his own team and has to become a more consistent producer before coming to the NBA. I currently would rank Freeland #1 in terms of talent, and Koponen #1 in terms of need for him on the team as the roster is currently composed.
We basically saved money drafting these players.
Thank you for truth-telling, though you’ll likely be crucified for it because KP walks on water around here. (In America where football is king, this is called “punting” your draft choices)
Claver should be flipped in a deal asap, the likelihood of him being a successful player for Portland is very small, IMO. What’s he going to to, come to the NBA and be Batum’s backup? That hypothetical role will surely convince him to sign Portland after what happened to Rudy and Sergio…
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Not punting
Just rolling the dice. If it works out — great! If not, no real big loss. So far it looks like the Euros may not work out. If he’d have drafted Americans, they’d be riding the pine. No big diff.
However, if even one of these Euros does work out (and it could be argued that Rudy has already, and Nic clearly has), then you have a player who talent-wise should be a lottery pick.
The risk has been worth it.
Only they would have had the option of drafting fellow international players Casspi and Beaubois with the same pick
Long-term I still like Claver, but it was definitely nothing to help the team within a year or two.
Agreed
Not that all of the Euro picks have worked out, of course (all of the American picks haven’t worked out either).
I was mostly trying to explain how the strategy of drafting Euro’s is (generally speaking) more uncertain than drafting Americans. When you are drafting late in the 1st round the downside risk is pretty minimal, so the uncertainty on the upside is actually beneficial. Kind of like a call option.
In other words, picking Euros late in the 1st is a good strategy. Of course, any specific pick can always be questioned.
At best, Victor Claver could give Portland what Seattle had in Vladimir Radmanovic when ...
Nate McMillan was at the helm. That, as far as I’m concerned, isn’t an encouraging proposition.
So yeah, I’m with two4larue here. Claver’s name should be incldued as a sweetener in potential trades this summer, for I don’t see much of a future for him here in the long run.
Saying they drafted the wrong Euro could be a valid criticism.
But that’s a different argument than saying their strategy of drafting Euros is flawed.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Yup
I don’t think the strategy of drafting International players is flawed since it widens the talent pool and makes it possible to keep players that develop on someone else’s time and dime. And even the Claver pick can be easily defended, since without his ankle injury he would have likely been a lottery pick in any given year, and at that time we had 3 small forwards who filled his role and any player would have had a problem to crack that rotation. Like Casspi, who wanted to come over right now while it was known that Claver would prefer (and need) more years in Spain.
you've got to kiss a lot of frogs before you get a prince?
In baseball they use this analogy for drafting young pitchers. It’s estimated that 80% of them will have arm trouble and never make it past AA, so you keep throwing stuff at the wall and hope it sticks. The flip side is that the Blazers actually have saved payroll by stashing Euros, and the avenues to convince these young men to come to the US and play in the NBA are drying up. Portland’s roster is deep, the agents for the Euros are going to look at “what’s the best opportunity for my client?” and steer them away from PDX, where they will definitely play more and very possibly make more money. Unless the player has a “dream” to play in the NBA (like Rudy) he’ll follow the advice of his rep
With all of these facts well known, would you still “roll the dice” on a Euro and hope that he’s the next Batum, or do you draft a domestic player who is easier to convince to play in Vegas and who won’t bolt to Europe, unless you cut him loose and he has no choice?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Even if you count Koponen, Claver and Freeland as unequivocal busts, our record drafting Euros is not that bad. We have one great pick (Batum) one very good pick (Fernandez) one average pick (Rodriguez) and three non-contributors.
Freeland came out of the ‘06 draft, so the American alternatives were awful. Koponen was basically free (we got him for a second round pick and cash). The only player we’ve spent much for and appears to have disappointed is then Claver.
I'd draft the Euro
But mostly because I don’t see any real upside to drafting a domestic player that low in the draft, and a little upside is better than none. I think almost all of the time a known quantity is drafted in the last 1st round, he ends up being an average bench player at best. But following up on Ben’s WARP theory, those guys can be found in the D-league just as easy, so why not swing for the fences? You’ll probably strike out, but an out is out. And hey, you just might hit one over the fence.
As far as Claver goes, yeah, he’s almost certainly a strike out, and if you can use him and spare parts to move up, then by all means, do it.
Again, I’m mostly talking about strategy when drafting low in the first round, not any one player in particular.
The Blazer scouts say this draft is 35 deep
Portland should be able to get a couple of decent domestic players drafting in the late first, early 2nd round. This year’s class is thin on Euros
I’m just saying take a year off. If they want to resume selecting Euros next year (when the prospects will be better) then we’ll revisit that next May
Assuming KP, Born and Buchanan are still around, of course…
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
FYI - I'm not arguing that Portland should employ the Euro stash strategy ...
… this draft.
I’m in the camp of drafting the best player available, regardless of position. If they have a couple guys who rank pretty even on their board, then perhaps use position as the deciding factor.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I'd argue against drafting a young PF in this draft, even if he was the BPA
because Portland just selected 2 of them last year (and passed on a better one…)
If the Blazers pick another PF (like Damien James, etc) this year, they’re basically saying that they don’t think Pendergraph is good to be good enough, and Jeff was someone that they were high enough on last year to pass on Blair at #31
So while the BPA is a nice concept, every roster has needs. IMO, one of the reasons KP tries to “move around” on the draft board is to fill those specific needs, rather than being stuck choosing the “BPA” when his original spot on the board comes up
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The flaw in your argument is that we already have evidence to the contrary.
Rudy came over knowing that he had a RoY and All-Star playing in front of him.
Batum came over knowing that he was unlikely to crack the rotation and most likely ticketed for the D-League.
Every player has a different set of motivations. Some guys prefer staying in Europe. Sometimes it’s the money. Sometimes it is a matter of comfort level. It could be a combination of both. However there appears to be a rather widespread feeling among the best European players to compete at the highest level and that is still the NBA. I’m making a bit of an assumption here, but it is my opinion that people who are truely competative want to play against the best. While money can be a powerful draw, the flip side of the coin is that the money will be there in the NBA once they prove they can hack it. It therefore becomes an issue of deferment. Are you willing to put off a big payday by a few years in order to achieve your primary dream?
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Are you willing to put off a big payday by a few years in order to achieve your primary dream?
In Rudy’s case, the answer was yes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a serious case of buyer’s remorse, already. If reports were true, he had an offer from CSKA on the table after the Olympics that would’ve paid him 3-4x what he was slotted to earn by choosing the NBA. Portland couldn’t offer him one dime more than the 24th pick in the draft is due per the CBA, and it was a huge bargain and a feather in KP and PA’s cap that they got him to agree to come over.
Exactly what was “promised” Rudy (beside the chance to fulfill his dream to “play against the best”) you and I will never know, but based on Rudy’s comments after he was on the team for a few months, he had expected to be given a more-important role in the offense, regardless of Roy or anyone else. I’ve read reports that as early as the winter of ‘08 Rudy had asked to be traded because he wasn’t content being a corner spot-up shooter in McMillian’s offense. A proposal was put in motion with Phoenix, and the Blazer’s brain trust decided not to pull the trigger by the narrowest of margins. (Believe it, or don’t)
Shorthly afterwards, Nate made some comments about how Rudy was ready to be given more responsibility in the offense. This could’ve been merited by Rudy’s improved play on the court, or simply a case of the head coach being a good soldier and following orders from HQ.
Following the season, when the news broke re: Portland’s offer to Hedo, Rudy was quoted in Spain questioning Turk’s hypothetical role on the roster, at the same time raising concerns again about his role with the Blazers.
What ‘s happened since this past season began should be fresh in everyone’s memories, Rudy arrived at fall camp with a bad back and numb leg. He received surgery. He was passed over by Bayless as a starting SG when Roy tweaked his hammy. His posse left town and he told Eggers that he had lost his confidence—which was evident by his play in March-April
Players tend to think they’re better than they are, especially stars who have only known accolades until they reach the level where their skills are ordinary. Coming out of Beijing it looked like the sky was the limit for #5. KP was excited. Paul Allen was excited. Nate McMillian was excited. The Blazer fans had high expectations for the Spanish connection.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the bull ring, the matador dropped his cape and the bull wasn’t fooled. The NBA can be a tough business and the other teams aren’t going to be impressed for long with your alley-oops. They’ll scout you to death and find your weaknesses, then exploit them. If you don’t have a counter move or two up your sleeve, you’ll be a one-season wonder. That’s what Sergio found out, and that’s where we sit with Rudy right now. His one skill that Portland needs the most (outside shot) has deserted him. He is the matador without a cape, and the league will show him no mercy
Sergio and Rudy are a cautionary tale, and Victor Claver would be wise to consult with them before making his decision to travel to the US to play pro ball. The Blazer’s front office would be wise to not put too many of their eggs in the basket labeled “glossy imports”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Rudy is a very good all-around player, and Sergio is a good offensive PG in the right system but an awful defender.
Rudy´s efficiency in his last ACB season was 25 per game average, the second best since the ACB provides stats on line. The record is owned by Marc Gasol, and Rudy´s would be the best if we consider the minutes they played per game. Until that season, Rudy had been improving every year, so it was not just a good season. His play in the Olympics, his first NBA season and his play in the Eurochampionship were not an anomaly (the only anomaly was his dunk on Howard). The anomaly was this season, once we couldn´t keep Rudy happy.
This year, New York offense was stagnant without Sergio and completely fluid with him. His defense is borderline criminal. He´s still 23 though.
I'm not saying they're bad players
I just don’t think they got what they bargained for, when they came to the NBA. Especially playing for a coach like McMillian. Why the Blazers would keep drafting Spaniards (without replacing the coach/system) is beyond me, it’s like the definition of insanity. I’m not a Nate-basher, BTW. I just think the roster parts he’s been handed don’t fit well together, it’s been like he’s been asked to make an automobile engine work that has half Japanese parts and the other half German
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree with you in most of your comments about this subject.
I just meant that they´re not “a one-season wonder”.
In Blazer lore, I'm afraid that they will come to be known that way
It’s not one person’s fault, it’s just circumstances and team/coaching dynamics
I hope Rudy finds happiness and his confidence is restored, but I don’t expect this to happen in a Blazer’s uniform
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Saving money is not a bad thing.
It is not as if we know that Portland had several offers on the table from other teams to acquire those picks, each offering a sure fire rotation guy in return.
Additionally, these guys potentially retain trade value – i.e. they add to Portland’s flexibility in making future deals. What good does drafting a guy that you owe guaranteed money to but can’t crack your rotation? If you don’t put him on the roster, you are paying a guy for zero return. If you do, you lose a roster spot for a guy that could be a bigger contributor. Drafting a Euro is a nice middle ground.
And we are talking about picks that are what – #21 or below? If one out of six becomes a rotation player, that’s a pretty decent showing. So far Portland has managed a starter with star potential, a guy who’s lasted 4 years and managed to crack the rotation of two teams and another guy who made the rotation his first two seasons. That’s more than respectable. Even if Rudy and Sergio are both out of the league or buried on a bench somewhere two years from now, Batum makes it a sucessful strategy.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
What good does drafting a guy that you owe guaranteed money to but can’t crack your rotation?
I agree, which is why I’ve suggested that Portland trade down and out of the first round, if they aren’t able to trade up and secure the player that they desire the most. I’d rather spend the BAE on a known veteran this summer then use the same money at #22 and choose a guy who might never dress down for the team on a regular basis. Euro stash counts against the cap, check out storyteller’s website and you’ll see those green numbers down at the bottom Portland’s roster that are added back into the total payroll, every summer.
If these guys never come over, the draft choice was ultimately punted. The front office and fans can justify it any way that they want, but if a team goes through all the trouble to scout players and acquire draft choices and they choose kids who play out their young careers for another team in a different country, it’s a sunk cost. No matter how you spin it (I’m not saying Portland did wrong or that I could do better, I’m just saying what is)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
What is your opinion of Koponen?
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I haven´t followed him, but it seems that the Draftexpress profile might be accurate. "best case: Beno Udrih".
The problem is that he should become Benoi Udrih before he goes to Portland, because the Blazers are not going to give him playing time to develope his game and acclimate with his teammates. Europeans, especially guards, are used to play through chemistry with their teammates.
I share the same fear with Dave, I think that KP may have misheard the draft the stash cries and thought portlanders were saying, "Draft and Stash"
The good thing is we got brandon roy because of his mistake, the bad is we have used a bunch of draft picks on guys who may not ever have an impact on an NBA team.
Just like every other team in the NBA.
Is there a team out there with a perfect drafting record?
Are there any that stand head and shoulders above the rest?
The Spurs come to mind and they’ve used the Euro strategy quite extensively. OKC may be a contender in this category – after being a major bust for a while. Portland’s draft record under Pritchard probably ranks pretty high. (Notice a trend here? All guys out of the RC Buford school.)
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
depth
Blazers main problem is still that they have a lot of players who are good enough to be rotation players in the NBA but not good enough to make you a championship contender.
Some of these young guys may develop into that given time, but I don’t know if Paul Allen is willing to let the team simmer for 3-4 years and see if it can organically grow into a championship contender without the injection of some higher caliber talent.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they do some trading to get a high draft pick. Clearly if have a high draft pick and pick the right guy, there are rookies that can be impact players in the NBA from day 1.
I kind of hope they don’t trade away Batum, or even Cunningham for that matter.
Maybe they could get a high draft pick if they trade away Bayless and Webster and the #22 pick. Both have been playing decent lately and should have some trade value. To work the salaries they would have to take someone in return, maybe that would be part of a deal too, they would take some boat anchor guy whose salary balances out Baylesses and Websters. Then they could put the washed up guy out of the rotation, and would thus wind up reducing their excessive depth, by getting rid of two rotation players and replacing them with one (the guy they get with the high draft pick they trade for).
I should save this post in case they wind up doing this deal then I can boast about predicting it.
Exactly
I think too many of our own fans overrate our depth. We had depth at center last year. Now that’s up in the air. We had a “glut,” not depth, at the 1/2 positions last year of people who were all role players good at 1 or 2 things (if even), not consistent contributors. One could argue that we had depth when we had Miller coming off the bench behind Blake, but I like to think it never happened. Look through the NBA, and most teams who are .500 or more have this type of depth. We aren’t any deeper than the average playoff team. I think we could have real depth with consistent bench contributors, but at this point, it’s not easy to know what we’re going to get from them game-to-game.
While there are rookies that can be impact players from day 1, I don’t think we can trade high enough for them. Even lottery picks may not have impacts from day one, even if they were known for it in college (Thabeet, Corey Brewer, JJ Redick, etc.). We’d have to get lucky and get a Blair-type player, someone whose skills (energy and hustle in his case) are more likely to translate to the NBA. I could see us nabbing one of these players with our draft pick, but now we have a glut of PFs.
"OK Kids! Who wants a basketball? That's why I love my Chevy Silverado."
on the other hand
On the other hand, if they did the trade I suggested, what they really need as Dave pointed out is a point guard, I believe Wall is the only good point guard in this year’s draft, so if you traded up to the #4 or #5 pick or something like that you won’t be able to get a good point guard, so you would have to draft someone at another position and then trade him to another team for a point guard.
Add that in the mix and this deal gets pretty complicated. I think that probably makes for a deal that’s too complicated to be realistic. Although, KP seems to enjoy stitching together complicated deals.
I say it every year...
…I love this time of year, I also hate it.
Seems like every fan comes in with a shot gun blast of opinion as to what The Blazers should do or will do. My observation over many, many years is that the off-season usually becomes a snipers rifle scope shot of executing a specific that becomes or is possible. Just like last off-season, the art of the possible is very hard to predict.
It’s even a little harder this off-season because we have no idea how united or into this draft ownership and management might or might not be. Nothing is going to happen that Paul Allen doesn’t OK, and you have to wonder what his immediate team goals are, and how much faith does he have in Kevin Pritchard. Maybe it’s being overblown? Maybe it’s not..but we just don’t know.
So I love this time of year, and all the speculation. But I also get tired of it. Anybody not behind the Blazer of Oz Curtain of Paul Allen, Larry Miller and Kevin Pritchard can’t really know what is going to happen, because with a draft and an off-season you never can really predict what might become possible, or what that seemed possible might become impossible.
In the past, Kevin Pritchard has always said The Blazers define who they want in a draft, then do everything possible to get that person. That’s a general shot gun blast of an explanation of off-season draft philosophy. There’s just too much unknown, for anyone I think, to really know.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Can’t we all just agree to the assumption that no one here knows exactly what is going on behind closed doors of the upper management. It is my understanding that everyone on this blog is here to make known their opinions and guesses. Anything said in these posts is obviously 100% a guess based on rumors, observations, and opinions, sometimes all 3.
picture me rollin'
of course - what's your point?
of course no one here has insider, upper management insight….we are fans that follow closely and voice/discuss our opinions, that’s why it’s a blog/forum site and not ESPN
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Portland has built its team championship potential by having top 10 lottery picks
otherwise the team has gone for the best player available for the potential cost of that player. That’s why this year I would trade with a team that could (might? ) be in the lottery next season.
I've always liked the idea of trying to trade up ...
… in some future draft.
It’s a way to potentially improve the value of your pick and to basically stash it for future use. The risk is being able to accurately predict the future performance of the team you are trading with.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Yes...
I’ll give you that, at least on willingness to make moves, Kevin would at least have to be called a very, very active sniper.
I guess it just seems like every year, you hear everything. Seems like there is always the speculation that we are going to move up into the top 4 pick range…and/or obtain the #1 coveted free agent (We’ve even heard the inevitable LeBron Rumors/Speculation).
I enjoy it, I understand fans like to speculate….but at times I just like to step back, admit that I really have no idea what might happen and just let it unfold.
Going into last off-season did too many people think Victor Claver and Andre Miller? Very few peoples crystal ball was that accurate.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
It’s even a little harder this off-season because we have no idea how united or into this draft ownership and management might or might not be. Nothing is going to happen that Paul Allen doesn’t OK, and you have to wonder what his immediate team goals are, and how much faith does he have in Kevin Pritchard.
Extremely good point. We already heard that the front office was ready to deal Rudy at the deadline, but the owner wouldn’t rubber stamp it. I hear Bedgers saying that “KP needs to make a knockout deal” to save his job, but nothing Portland’s GM does happens in a vacuum. If the deal turns out favorably, Allen will think it was his superior decision-making. But if the trade or draft choice goes south or even sideways? Heads will roll. This is the pattern of the last 20 years of Blazer history
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Smeone please educate me on this:
I recall seeing some press that from a dollars-to-win standpoint, having young players (particularly) rookies is the most cost-effective way of producing wins.
Are there stats on this that back up that theory?
It wreaks havoc on the blogs and the hearts-and-minds of the fans to constantly have rookies churning through the system only to leave us like so many one-night stands. But assuming there’s a core group of Batum, Roy, LMA, and (please gods) Oden, I can see a never-ending cycle of rookies coming through the draft if only to enable the large salaries the core will command.
Is that a viable strategy? If so, it makes every bit of sense to jettison a large chunk of the roster (Webster, Rudy, etc) to make room for newer (and still cheap) rookies.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
yes rookies are a great bargain
You get a lot of production for your money on first round rookie contracts. Pelton did some statistical analysis in this article.
The problem with relying completely on rookies to flesh out the roster surrounding the core players is that while their production is on average a good deal, it also varies a lot and is more difficult to predict than for veteran players. So if a team has a highly acute, short term need, and filling that need is an important step toward championship contention, it might be worth it to pay a premium for a more known quantity. However, if you are looking to address multiple needs over a longer time-frame, the draft should definitely be an option. The Blazers have enough long term question marks (delineated by Dave above) that we should be looking to use the draft to consistently refresh the supporting cast with cheap talent and selected veteran acquisitions to resolve the areas of most acute need.
by atomiccafe on May 25, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec, well said
All of my thoughts written much more clearly than I could have hoped to write them.
the challenge is to ID the keepers
and flip the non-keepers while their trade value is the highest
Yes, it creates a revolving-door and the back-end of the roster, but no team can afford to pay 8-9 players past their 3 year rookie salaries. Especially not if you have a few “max salaries” for your starts mixed in.
My message remains “don’t fall in love with all of these young players” The keepers will separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Don’t sleep on the slackers and let their trade value dip or you’ll get stuck in a never-ending cycle of making the playoffs and getting bounced in the first round. The Blazers were in such a cycle, just about every year from 1981 to 1989 and it took innovative scouting and drafting from Bucky B to pull them out of the rut (not to mention dealing away “popular” players, like Paxson, etc)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
eh...
“The most likely route is also the most practical: just take a guy you can get at 22 and develop him in your system, in this league from the start. Maybe he doesn’t set the world on fire. But maybe you don’t need that. If he fills a spot eventually, good enough.”
That sounds like guys we already have (Pendy, Cunningham… maybe Mills). Unless we are going to grab a quality backup point guard, I think we try to trade our picks away.
by andyisnumerouno on May 25, 2010 8:20 AM PDT reply actions
Dominque Jones
DJ can play the 1-2, but is taller/longer than Jerryd so the 2 of them could play alongside each other
I think KP will take Rudy and #22 try to trade up to the 10-12 level, but if his plans fall through and DJ is still around at 22, he’d be a rookie “swing” guard who could step in right away and play 15-20 mpg off the bench in combination with either Miller, Roy or Bayless
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Portland needs to pick
someone that can be traded for some shooting, especially consistent 3-point shooting.
Portland needs more fire power, either a swift, penetrating point guard or a three-point shooting assassin.
Penetrating guard
you’re not going to find any guards at 22 in this draft who can penetrate and get to the FT line better than DJ. His DX profile also mentions he’s able to make plays for his teammates off of the pick-and-roll
If all the Blazers want is a “swift, penetrating” guard, they can keep Patty Mills. It’s what you do after you get past the first line of defense that counts
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Interesting
You mean like Jerryd Bayless and Patty Mills?
"OK Kids! Who wants a basketball? That's why I love my Chevy Silverado."
That's exactly my point
We already have some penetrating point guards with decent potential (probably won’t be starting guards, but will be good off the bench). Both of them are 3 pt shooters too (Bayless to a lesser extent). Is it really worth it to try to pick up another rookie?
Personally, I don’t like combo guards. I think a pure pg like Steve Nash is what the Blazers need most. I don’t think this year’s draft has what the Blazers need.
by andyisnumerouno on May 26, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions
+1
Jones is the anti Rudy, he can slash/board and get after people on Defense. He should be able to provide big time scoring punch off the bench and COULD be starter potential when Miller retires.
Jones has been getting good reports in his workouts and plays with a lot of fire.
by Rip City Reign on May 25, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Nate likes to put the other team in the penalty
Jones fits the profile of a Blazer guard who penetrates and creates contact
He’ll have to work on his shooting mechanics, but that’s a skill that can be coached-up with reps and professional instruction
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't see us standing pat
I think we either trade up into the lottery for an impact draft prospect, or trade away the pick, leading to the eventual acquisition of a sharpshooter. I would hinge on the latter; we just need a proven bomber the stretch the floor at this point. We have all the pieces to contend, and we don’t need any more roster filler than we already have.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
Exactly
That is why I wouldn’t understand us picking up a mediocre rookie. We have enough role players (and pretty decent ones!).
I also agree that we need to get a sharpshooter. My question (and I know I’m beating a dead horse here)… we have a sharpshooter in Rudy Fernandez… do we take the risk in keeping him around another year? As far as sharpshooters go, he should be near the top of the list (if he SHOOTS!!).
by andyisnumerouno on May 25, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think we have decent role players on the bench
I think we have decent prospects who are still trying to become role players. Steve Blake was probably the best example of a role player on the Blazers, but he took too many of Miller’s minutes. Joel is a perfect example of a role player. We could count on these guys for what we needed from them, in almost every game.
Camby can become a really good role player if Oden’s healthy. Joel can reprise his role if he’s healthy.
What roles do our bench players fulfill exactly? Martell, when he’s hot, hits the 3s we’ve always wanted from him. When he’s off, he bricks them off the backboard. Fortunately, his defense has picked up.
Rudy, when he’s into the game, hits the 3s we absolutely need from him. When he’s missing, he’ll usually come through in other departments (smart help D, loose balls). Sometimes, he’ll just disappear.
Bayless, when he’s playing against softer defenses, does get to the rim, but he’s still working on a consistent jump shot and court vision. At various points this year though, we saw him rendered useless in some games after the opposing team learned to stay near the hoop, had a shot blocker or stood and took charges. Jason Collins and Channing Frye are far from being paint defenders or guys with high defensive IQ.
I’m with you, against drafting more prospects, unless we can get a steal somewhere. Roy is now 26, which should mean he’s entering his peak years starting next season. I think we need guys we can count on for the next 3-4 years, if that’s our window. Not more players who we hope will grow into role players.
"OK Kids! Who wants a basketball? That's why I love my Chevy Silverado."
I'm with you on your player evaluations.
I would add one point – Rudy and Bayless will be entering just their 3rd year in the league. There is plenty of reason to expect improvement as they gain experience.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I believe they can improve as well
It’s just a matter of how much time we’re willing to give them, and if we think they’ll become the guys we envisioned (PG/sixth man scoring). If they can do this consistently in the next one or even two years, I think we’ll be ok this dept. too (main issue is still Greg’s health), but sometimes I wonder if we could make simple moves for a couple of vets (young vets who are just approaching their primes like Ronnie Brewer, Bass) or guys like Darren Collison, Blair, whoever has shown that they can play in this league with everyone else right out of the draft.
I’m not good at knowing who’s likely to bite on trades or which teams want to give up players or rebuild, due to the giant FA situation. I do think we’ll see an addition during the offseason. I’d be fine with Mike Miller too.
"OK Kids! Who wants a basketball? That's why I love my Chevy Silverado."
It's interesting to tie BPA strategy to picking in the last 1st
to me this philosophy should be used in all cases up and down the draft board. it seems like a disproportionate amount of the biggest draft mistakes and reaches can be linked to teams choosing to use criteria other than BPA.
Trade up & taking on a undesirable contract
I’d be OK if Portland simply takes pick #22, #44 to complete their 44 man roster. I think Przybilla’s trade value will be much higher come January, February.
But……
Philly is said to be shopping it’s #2 pick, in a package for someone willing to take on Elton Brand’s pick. Later, I’ll do an analysis of lottery picks and their undesirable contracts. I’m sure that Rip Hamilton/ Detroit’s #7 pick would also be included in that pick. But meanwhile……allow me to dream:
Przybilla, Webster, and Fernandez for Elton Brand, Pick #2 (Evan Turner)
Miller (1+1 yrs)/ Bayless
Roy/ Turner (the next Brandon Roy?)
Batum/ Cunningham
Aldridge/ Brand (3 years, $51M)
Oden/ Camby (2 years, $22M)
While Cunningham is listed as the backup SF, in reality – a #2 pick will come in with the expectation of playing time so Turner might get that at the 1, 2, or 3 – as he again has similar flexibility as to the oftenly compared Roy. Brand has a perfect “grind it out” style of game that would be a nice contrast to Aldridge who has received much criticism for his finesse style of play.
Maybe Philly gets a better offer or decides this is just too offensive to the fanbase – but if it were on the table, I certainly would – wouldn’t you?
by Mad Matt the Road Warrior on May 25, 2010 9:49 AM PDT reply actions
sorry for the typos - is there an edit function for comments?
overuse and misplacement of the word “picks” and meant to say “complete their 15 man roster”…Hope the intent is still clear
by Mad Matt the Road Warrior on May 25, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
only thing is - you have a TON of money tied up at the PF position and only 1 of them on the floor at a time
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
If it brings a guy who performs like Tyreke Evans did this season ...
… you can live with it. The value is in the guy you draft, not in what Brand brings. If he contributes at all, it is a bonus.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Yeah, of course I would
But how do you see Roy and Turner fitting together?
In that dream scenario, I could see them as a pretty deadly 1-2 punch. Turner is very good at driving to the rim to score – like Roy. At least he would take defensive focus off Roy, and enable him to take less of a beating inside. And he is very flexible, you could use Turner on the ball in a second unit just as well as a wing player on the first unit. Admittedly he is less good as a catch and shoot player, so playing him off Miller and Roy might be not ideal and we would need either Roy taking more outside shots or a PG with a better jumpshot. And over time, Turner’s shooting percentage in spot-up situations could likely be further improved by a good shooting coach.
They'd need to play a lot of zone defense
Roy+Turner in the backcourt would be susceptible to penetrating guards, whether they are 1s or 2s
Oden and Pryz could help deal with the drivers, but they’d be at risk of foul trouble. Batum can’t defend everybody out on the perimeter
And I can hear the suggestion now…we’d just slide Brandon to 3 and let Evan play the 2…that worked so well with Rudy! Of course Roy didn’t like this idea before, and he hasn’t been able to stay healthy when defending larger (or smaller) players for the last couple of years. So here’s a suggestion: let’s leave #7 exclusively at SG for a whole season and see how he does?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
he will play the 3 in the nba...not quick enough to be a 2 IMO
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think speed/quickness will be a problem with Turner
He is excellent in transition (better than Roy), and has good handles and crafty stutter moves when driving to the rim in half court sets. His straight line speed might not be at the top of the class (no results yet afaik), but he looks to have very good “game speed”.
i was speaking more on the defensive end of things
he definitely can score in the open floor/transition, but he doesn’t have that Kobe type of quickness
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
then he's taking PT away from Nic?
I don’t think the Blazers need to be drafting another starting SF. If you’re thinking “deal Batum to move up to #2 and select Turner” then I’m saying let’s keep Frenchy. Think about this…if you put Batum on the Buckeyes next fall, how would Nic compare to what Turner did this year?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Just thinking how it might work—I don’t really have any interest in Turner. He doesn’t seem to fill a real need. Cousins/Favors would be a better match long term, with Camby’s horizon being pretty short.
i think Favors will be a stud
but we would have to give up someone major to get him – and at that point I’m not sure with LMA making big bucks on the roster already
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
you'd have to give up either LMA or Nic to get Favors
I don’t think KP will deal LMA, and he better not trade Nic
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I feel like this team needs to do somthing...
I don’t feel there are enough pieces for a true contender yet. We need a shot blocking defensive presence in the post, and by that I mean a long term guy.
Possibly but I meant last season.
If you recall when everyone was healthy the team did not look good.
quibble
Rudy Fernandez…discontented.
I like to bag on Rudy as much as the next guy, but despite his regression this past season, he remains an excellent pick. Per Winshares (not a perfect metric yada yada), he is the 11th most productive player from his draft class. That doesn’t even take into account that he has played one less year than the peers in front of him, outside Marc Gasol! Had he played that year at the same level as his poor sophomore effort, his WS jumps to 6th, behind only Noah, Gasol, Horford, Durant and Landry (tied w/Thaddeus Young). Rudy Fernandez is not an argument against drafting Euros.
I’ll also note that Sergio was picked 27th in the 2006 draft, and is 13th in Winshares from that class. The 2006 draft class was absolutely awful, so it’s not like we were alone in picking up a crappy player late in the first round.
by atomiccafe on May 25, 2010 10:13 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
he didn't say he was bad, he said he was discontented, which is true
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I know, but he’s using it as evidence in favor of not picking more European players. Is a little bit of whininess from an otherwise productive player enough to render a good pick a bad one? And does it provide evidence against picking European players? Maybe it’s food for thought, but I think on the whole Rudy is evidence FOR picking Euros. They have played at a higher level and are ready to contribute immediately, as seen by his excellent rookie season. His contributions outweigh his complaining.
i somewhat agree
but I think one thing that has really changed, especially over the last 4-5 years, is that there isn’t the desire from Euros to jump to the NBA as much as there used to be. Part of that is the lack of success many have had coming over, but a large part of that is that the basketball, and just as importantly, the pay scales are becoming equal with the NBA experience. Part of that is the value of the Euro compared to the dollar, lack of taxes, etc. but it’s also because basketball has become huge over there, and they’re just as much heroes and sports icons there as they would be in the NBA.
After the ‘92 Dream Team, everyone wanted to come play in the NBA because it was the “promised land”. But now, players like Ricky Rubio, Rudy, etc. can stay in their home country, get paid big, and still be sports stars, without having to do it on the NBA stage. Players like Brandon Jennings and Josh Childress have helped accelerate that by actually jumping the US to play overseas, and I think we’ll be seeing a lot more of that as time goes on, guys are going to go where they’ll get paid whether that’s here or somewhere else.
Ricky Rubio is the best prospect in Europe right now, and the TWolves drafted him, and they’re not going to be able to have his services for at least 2-3 years afterward, if ever.
I think you have to take all of that into consideration these days
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
yep, I agree with this
When you’re evaluating a European player you have to consider how likely they are to come over. For a team like the T’Wolves, that can be devastating. For the Blazers, it’s not the end of the world to have Freeland overseas, because he can get some playing time and maybe come over next off-season as Camby is sort of eased out of a major role.
Well, 2010 is a weak draft for European/International players anyway after Vesely pulled out. 2011 however looks very strong.
Maybe European players just haven’t understood the implications of the upcoming CBA negotiations/potential lockouts, maybe it’s just a weak age crop followed by a strong one.
In 2010, the ranking of International players goes something like this:
1. Donatas Motiejunas, PF/C, should be a surefire lottery pick for he has at least the potential of former #1 pick Bargnani. Might stay one more year in Europe to mature, but would be ready now.
2. Kevin Seraphin, C/PF, late first round pick. Not terribly NBA ready in my opinion, but French players worked out well recently so maybe someone takes a flier on him hoping they find a big man gem. Might also pull out and try again in 2011.
3. Miroslav Raduljica, true C, late first to early second round. A big man project with probably not a terrible amount of upside. Team situation a bit unclear, might cause some NBA GMs to steer clear of him.
4. Alexey Shved, 6-5 PG/SG, second round. He is stashed well in Moscow with one of the best coaches and teams in Europe, so it might make sense to leave him over longer. Has the potential to be what players like Hardaway and Livingston once promised.
5. Nemanja Bjelica, 6-10 point-forward, second round. Even more so than Shved is an unusual player who may or may not be able to do what he does in Europe in the NBA. Could fit what the Blazers were looking for in Hedo and Odom.
6. Paulao Prestes, C/PF, second round, on a good team in Spain but might prefer to play in NBA.
7. Vladimir Dasic, SF/PF, second round. Strong player with potential to be a steal. Real Madrid probably wants to keep him though.
8. Robin Benzing, SF, second round to undrafted. On a team in Germany where he has no buyout. Good shooter, questionable athleticism. Might pull out and try again in 2011.
Others: Hamady N’Diaye C, Tim Ohlbrecht PF (very athletic, once drew comparisons as the next Dirk although he plays a totally different style), Pablo Aguilar PF, a few other French players who have declared and not yet withdrawn incl. a national team player, …
I don’t consider Vasquez (Maryland) an international player, although by passport I think he is.
Compared to that, in 2011 you likely have 3 surefire international lottery picks with Jan Vesely, Jonas Valanciunas and Enes Kanter (who just beat Dirk’s scoring record in the Nike Hoop Summit).
I wouldn't be making too strong a case for the Euro being stronger than the dollar right now.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
that was just a small part of my argument that was playing a small role in Euro contracts recently
but way to pull that out of the whole discussion – very important in regards to the Blazers
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I really wasn't out to savage your argument.
But if you insist – I also disagree with your other points.
I don’t see the case having been made that a large percentage of European players have not experienced success. As atomiccafe illustrated with the guys from Spain, the success record is pretty good. I believe the majority of teams in the NBA have at least one Euro player in their regular rotation. I don’t see where the success/fail rate has changed all that much over the years. There may be more guys not making it than before, but that’s a result of more guys getting drafted. The number to look at is the percentage.
I’d also like to see you make the case that basketball is significantly bigger now than just 5 years ago? It has grown in popularity, but to the point that it outshines the NBA as the premier stage?
Finally, using Rubio as an example to prove your point doesn’t work too well for me. There could be several reasons for him not coming over this year, such as his buyout clause, his not wanting to play for Minnesota and being one of two lottery PG’s drafted by the same team.
I haven’t looked up the numbers, but my impression is that there is no shortage of guys wanting to come over to play in the NBA and that the list is getting bigger rather than shorter. If the numbers vary from year to year, I’d bet it has more to do with the quality of players eligable than it does with any lessening of desire.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
next time you should actually read my post before you try to disagree with it
my point had nothing to do really with the success of the players…that wasn’t even really part of my discussion. My point was that prospects like Tskitisvili, Darko Milicic, Kosta Perovic and other Euro prospects that were top-5 or lottery picks haven’t always panned out – and look at Rudy – he is a star/icon in Spain but for the Blazers he’s a backup. Point being that these guys can stay in their home countries or nearby and get more playing time while making tons of money and being sports heroes, they dont have to come to the NBA to have that reality anymore.
I also didn’t say that basketball got bigger over the past 5 years – I said the desire of European players to play in the NBA is a bit less than it was 5 years ago because of how much the pay scales and everything have changed. Many European owners, who previously only would sign and play European players, have opened it up more to guys overseas, and have been handing out very large contracts to players in order to improve their teams. Look at the Josh Childress deal with Olympiakos, or any of the other US guys that go over there and play – they’’re getting NBA-level money there, that didn’t used to be the case
And with Rubio YOU made my point that YOU are arguing against….exactly – he doesn’t want to play for Minny because he can stay in Spain, make just as much money, doesn’t have to worry about the buyout, and doesn’t have to live in Minnesota. Not too long ago, if a European PG was drafted 5th overall – he’d come over just to get to play in the NBA – and that mentality doesn’t exist anymore because the basketball, fame, and money are just as good in Europe now
I also didn’t say there was a “shortage” of guys who want to come over. My whole point is that there has been a shift in perception, and that guys aren’t clamoring to get over here as much as they used to, since they can get paid just as well while still playing elite basketball and being local heroes and icons. Teams like the Wizards, Nets, and TWolves have to consider that stuff now when they draft and evaluate Euros – as they’re just not desirable locations to live and play. Look at the Magic, they drafted Fran Vasquez #10 overall and he still hasn’t ever played for them, because he preferred to stay in Spain.
if you think that’s solely because the players aren’t as good and it has nothing to to with desire, you’re not keeping up with your international hoops
haha thanks for “savaging” my argument
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions
They have played at a higher level and are ready to contribute immediately, as seen by his excellent rookie season
The problem is, other than the Gasol brothers and Calderon (and even Jose was beaten out by Jack for his starting job) the Spanish players don’t seem to have much “staying power” in the NBA . Once the rest of the league figures them out, they become pedestrian instead of productive. So, is a “one-season wonder” really worth the trouble of a draft and stash commitment?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
?
other than 3/5 of the Spanish players currently in the NBA?
The complete Spanish NBA contingent is Fernandez, Rodriguez, Calderon and the Gasols. Three of those (the Gasols and Fernandez) represent excellent value for their draft position. Calderon has already had a decent NBA career and was undrafted. Rodriguez is a “meh” pick in a horrible draft: not great production, but he’s still in the league.
So 4/5 of the Spanish players currently in the league are a phenomenal value, and the fifth is about average. Three players have come to from Spain to the NBA in the last decade and left after a short stint:
Raul Lopez (24th pick): underwent knee surgery before joining Jazz, played one unproductive season
Jorge Garbajosa (undrafted): had one decent season, was seriously injured, then left the Raptors following a dispute regarding playing for the Spanish national team
Juan Carlos Navarro (2nd round, 40th overall): one mediocre year for the Grizzlies before returning to Barcelona.
Additionally, NBA teams hold the draft rights to Fran Vasquez and Victor Claver. Even if these guys don’t pan out at all, I don’t see how you can assert that most Spanish players are “one season wonders.” Four of the eight have represented fantastic value, and three of the remaining four were acquired for basically nothing (second round picks don’t tend to get you much in terms of production). So the root of this argument is that the 24th pick of the 2001 draft was wasted on Raul Lopez, and therefore Spanish players underperform in the league? Even if Claver and Vasquez turn out to be nothing, I’ll take my chances with that track record.
by atomiccafe on May 25, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Rockets also hold the draft rights to SG/PG Sergio Llull (after a trade with the Nuggets), and expect to bring him over for the 2011 season when his contract expires. He’s a productive player for Real Madrid, but maybe might need more time to develop.
Vazquez and Dwight Howard would still be a better front court than Rashard Lewis and Howard, so the Magic probably have not yet given up hope to get him over.
Tiago Splitter is Brazilian, but will likely join the Spurs next season as the reigning MVP in Spain.
whoops
Llull wasn’t on Storyteller’s site, so I didn’t include him.
I didn’t include Tiago because it seemed like the debate was only about Spanish players (no discussion of Ginobili, Parker, Delfino, Nocioni, Nowitzki, Beaubois, etc).
I was only talking about Spanish players
specifically guards, who played in Portland. But a lot of folks have suggested that the Blazers acquire Calderon over the years—from the looks of things, it’s a good thing that they didn’t
and I don’t have high hopes for Claver. He’s a skinny stretch 4 (like Outlaw) and I would prefer Cunningham in that role
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I am in complete agreement ...
… with you on Calderon (I never understood all the love he got here at BE) and Claver.
Still, atomicc’ makes the far better argument. Knocking Spanish players as guys who can’t cut it in the NBA doesn’t hold up very well.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I'll take a Gasol brother, any time they're offered
but the rest of them haven’t made my heart go pitter-patter, at least not for very long
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Rudy and Sergio's trade value has diminished since their rookie years
So that makes them “one year wonders” from this Blazer fan’s perspective.
Fernandez could improve as an NBA player in another city, but in Portland? I wouldn’t predict a Blazer renaissance for #5
Sergio was the definition of meh. He was drafted, he got some folks excited with his play, he was held onto too long and ultimately KP had to pay Sacto to take him
Sure, sign me up for another couple of those. Whatever “draft value” they may have had quickly dissipated. What I care about right now is “how much they’re worth” when it comes time to flip ’em, unless they somehow beat the odds and sign a second contract with Portland after their rookie deals have expired.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
this is confusing to me
I concede KP kept Sergio past his sell-by date and may have done the same with Rudy. However, KP’s failure to time his moves correctly does not prove that Spanish players represent a poor use of draft picks. It just shows KP doesn’t know how to sell high.
Further, despite his swoon, Rudy still has more trade value than all but about a dozen players from his draft class. Not so bad for a 24th pick.
Good point
It’s easy to forget that Rudy was the 24th pick of the draft. So everything hasn’t been rosy? Here’s a list of #24 picks since 2000:
Dalibor Bagaric
Raul Lopez
Nenad Krstic
Brian Cook
Delonte West,
Luther Head
Kyle Lowry
Rudy Fernandez
He’s in the top half of that group, that’s for sure. Maybe not the best, but definitely not the worst, either. Whatever you say about Rudy, he was a good draft pick.
It just shows KP doesn’t know how to sell high.
Exactly. And if he doesn’t sell Claver soon, we’ll be having this same conversation in a year or two
Rolling the dice and getting lucky means nothing if you can’t pull yourself away from the table with your winnings. KP hasn’t shown that he knows when to cash ’em in, at least until he got something for Travis last Feb.
Drafting well means acquiring talent, but that’s only the start of the roster-evaluation process. Let’s take Jarrett Jack as an example, even though he was Nash’ pick KP was around and probably had some scouting input on that decision. Jack was drafted, played 3 years then was dealt when his rookie contract expired. (Portland moved up 2 slots in the lottery to select Bayless) Since then, Jack has upped his NBA value.
Do I think KP flipped JJ at the right time? At the time of the deal I thought it definitely was time for Jarrett to move on, because Nate was relying on Jack too much and JJ wasn’t the kind of PG the team needed. Turns out, KP agreed and rather than offer JJ an extension he used him as an asset to move up the board on draft day.
In hindsight, we could say that KP blew it because JJ is better now than he ever was, when he played in PDX. But what can’t be known is how much “playing behind Roy, Blake and Rudy” would’ve affected JJ’s career if he had remained in Portland. I haven’t got a crystal ball, but I suspect that he would’ve chafed on the bench and his trade value would’ve wound up being much worse if he had been kept around.
This is the point I’m trying to make about Rudy. You can keep him on the roster in hopes that he resdiscovers his confidence and re-establishes his trade value, or you can use him as an asset to move up in the draft, next month. I can’t predict KP’s decision, all I can do is examine the past and make an educated guess based on the choices the front office has made about players who were in similar situations (unhappy with their roles) in the past
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Rec
Nice argument. Aren’t facts such a pain in the ass?
btw – I can’t recall his name at the moment, but isn’t the PG with the Mavs from Spain? The guy that seems to play his best against the Blazers.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
STIR-CRAZY Blazer fans!
hey, I sort of understand where you all are coming from, but look, the main thing that needs to happen this off-season is for everyone to GET HEALTHY. Nevermind draft picks and whatever, when we roll out our whole lineup intact, we are a hell of a team. If we get a 100% healthy Roy, Batum, Oden, Pryz out there, we’re as good as anyone in the league. And having a healthy Oden out there makes LMA that much better, etc.
Now, we are going to have to address the future of the PG position, and maybe add another big, but we have some options to do so. Pryz can be traded next year as an expiring deal (and it may even get picked up by insurance which would make it even more tradeable), and the year after that we will have Camby and Andre as expiring deals. We also have Webster, Rudy, and Bayless on very affordable deals considering their productivity, which makes the perfect combination for a trade (large expiring + a young inexpensive talent as sweetner)
My point is that we can swing some deals to shore up our roster, it by no means needs to happen with the #22 pick in the draft. We might be able to find a decent big at that point of the draft, but any elite PGs like Avery Bradley and Eric Bledsoe will be long-gone by then (and they’re not worth trading up for). I just don’t feel like, outside of Wall, there is anyone in this draft worth cashing in our trade chips to move up and get. I like Favors – but you just paid LMA big money, the only way I’d be OK with a move to get Favors would be is we had a plan to move LaMarcus.
I just think that every year around the draft everyone gets way too jumpy and excited, we should just grab the BPA at #22 and get everyone else healthy.
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 10:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Rec
While I understand that some fans love all the speculation, I agree, what we do in the draft this year is not likely to be critical. Having a healthy lineup is far more important.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
i would def do
pryz, batum and our 22 for evan turner. turner will be a better player than batum.. annd i love batum. absolutely. but. evan turner and brandon roy together? is much better than brandon roy and batum together……. our even pryz, batum and rudy and keep our 22.
i don't know about that
turner will be a better player than batum..
as an all-around talent, probably, but as a defender and athlete, no.
You have to keep the bigger picture in mind, who he’s playing with. He and Brandon are both best used as playmakers with the ball in their hands. To have 2 of those guys on the floor at the same time, in addition to Andre Miller, doesn’t seem like it would work well. Also, Turner is not the best athlete, and having he and Roy out there together would probably create some perimeter defensive liabilities, as Roy is not the best defender himself.
Nic fits nicely because he can guard everyone from Steve Nash to Dirk, which covers Brandon nicely because Batum guards the other team’s best scorer. He is also a high efficiency scorer, he doesn’t need or demand the ball, and he hits a high percentage when he gets it.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Turner, I just don’t think you make that kind of move and give up Batum to get him when you already have Roy on your roster. Also remember, he and Nic are practically the same age, and still both have a lot of room for improvement.
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Would def NOT
Trade Batum… Dood makes the Big 3 the Big 4. He’s exactly the kind of versatile, elite defender everybod wants… He’s going nowhere…
The best thing to do this year...
Get a decent back-up for Roy that can defend and score.
I would go for Damian James or Xavier Henry – somebody like that.
Rudy is a poor defender, Martel is a little better. Both have offensive flaws that are not easily remedied.
your right.
but also remember that turner grabbed nine rebs a game. batum.. doesnt. and it seems we got beat on the boards a ton this year. especially playoff time. and if turner could not defend. . . he would not have been in the top 2 for player of the year last year. he also averaged a steal and a block a game. along with 6 assists. those assists could be going to roy and when roy is offf roy could be a distraction for turner.. as where batum cannot create his own shot in a way that turner could.
just in response
we got beat on the boards a ton this year
more to do with Oden and Pryz being out – when you lose your 2 centers you get hurt on the boards
if turner could not defend. . . he would not have been in the top 2 for player of the year last year
not necessarily true – offense rules all in college hoops, I didn’t say he couldn’t defend, but he wouldn’t be the guy to guard an NBA team’s best perimeter scorer like Batum does
he also averaged a steal and a block a game
true, but what kind of #s do you think Batum would have if he played against college guys when he was 19???
those assists could be going to roy
not necessarily, Roy gets most of his points off iso action, he’s not a great spot up shooter
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
and also.. where are we lacking? not in defense and athletics.
were lacking in offense. remember in the suns series when we were able to stop their offense… but.. they completely shut us down on O. another reason why turner could be a good asset.
but you'r taking your examples from our team when they were not at full strength
shockingly, the Blazers weren’t as good on offense when our best player, all-star, and one of the league’s leading scorers was hurt, not to mention not having our 2 centers to score inside….
i’m not hating on Turner, but I don’t think you give up Batum to get him just because he can create his own shot. We just paid Roy and Aldridge a ton of money because they create their own shots, not to mention Andre Miller and Oden being able to create some of their own offense as well
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
but pryz wont be here for atleast half the year.. and idk if we can COUNT
on oden to be here all year. so i do think we still need to draft somebody who can hit boards. i mean come on. we got killed on the boards by the SUNS. and lopez was OUT! turner is also 21.. giving up 3 years ncaa experience. and sure roy gets most points off iso action.. and turner .. in my opinion.. would be even more of a distraction to open up the lane for roy than batum is if turner and roy are on the same floor.
in response again....
we still need to draft somebody who can hit boards
then moving up to get Evan Turner is not the answer – if we need rebounding there are a lot of other guys in the draft not going in the top 3 (and the associated price tag to get up that high) that could help us in that department
and turner .. in my opinion.. would be even more of a distraction to open up the lane for roy than batum
how so? Turner is NOT a good shooter – in fact there’s a whole article up on ESPN today about how the 76ers should pass up Turner because putting him and Iguodala on the perimeter together would be bad because neither is a shooter. You need a guy that Roy can kick to and will punish defenses for doubling either he, LMA, or Oden. Batum is a better shooter than Turner at this point.
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
you do have your point.
would you go get turner if it didnt involve batum? but instead it meant givin up pryz and rudy and jerryd but taking on brand and the #2?
Ixnay on a backup wing to develop.
I’ve got full confidence in Roy and Batum as the starters (DUH),
and I’m sold on Martell as one backup – he’s as suited to off-guard as he is to sma’ fo’ard.
If (pretty solid possibility here) Rudy and Bayless are not long-term answers at the 2,
and we need to develop someone for either the 2 or the 3, we’ve already got him.
From everything we know, Claver is AT LEAST good enough to be a NBA-backup-quality sma’ fo’ard.
The only question is: When can/should/will he come over?
With that in mind, a backup 2/3 is only something to get for the short term,
and a #22 pick should be seen as the opposite: a developable future prospect.
And I also have confidence that, between Cunningham and Pendergraph,
we have our long-term backup power foward covered.
The backup-center path is the correct answer. Huzzah!
Do it! Do it! Do it 'til you're satisfied!
yeah but do you realize what we have to give up to get them?
I just think that there will be other, proven NBA players available that we can use guys like Rudy, Martell, or Bayless in a trade for – especially if you combine them with JPEC…
we’d be giving up proven NBA talent to go after a guy that largely duplicates our best player, or a big with major attitude/maturity problems that showed up to the Chicago combine way out of shape…for me, no thanks
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 12:27 PM PDT reply actions
Too many small forwards
This reduces playing time and actually hurts the chemistry of the team. Therefore:
trade Bayless, #22 pick, our second round pick to Washington for a first round pick next year.
Use ME to get Mason of Spurs (if healthy) or Mike Miller (ditto on the health).
Roger Mason sounds like a nice suggestion.
And I’m even beginning to feel the Mike Miller love.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
i am a big fan of this idea
We need more shooters!!
by blahblah4864 on May 25, 2010 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions
what are we realllyyy giving up tho?
okay, we give up rudy. number 1. a streaky shooter who cant do anything else but spot up shoot. cannot play D. cannot create own shot.
our number 22.
pryz: a staple defensive center who probably will never fully recover, and wont be back for atleast half of next season. basically a cap room drop.
bayless: i am very high on bayless, i think he is great. just needs to work on his shot. i think we keep
martell: streaky shooter with a hustle attitude and a confidence issue. he CAN play D but obviously not starting quality.
what are we really givivp in all of those players? not much in my opinion. even if we only move up to the 4-8 section. i thnk we could get a really quality contributer worth those players and more.
well 2 things, it shreds our bench and we give up the chance to make other deals
trading a few of those guys away shortens our bench considerably…we can afford to trade Pryz because we have Camby, but if you send out Martell, who backs up Batum? if you send out Rudy and/or Bayless, who backs up Roy and Miller?
The other thing is, if you give up those guys to move up and get a rookie – you’re putting a ton of pressure on that rook to perform, and if they don’t, you’ve mortgaged your depth for nothing.
Why not wait – until just like it does every season – an underachieving team next year is looking to slash payroll or rebuild, and make a deal with JPEC and one or two of those affordable wings to get a guy that can come in and help us win right away (Mike Miller?)
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Waiting makes sense
Because jbay4 basically makes the point that we’re really not willing to give up very much, so why would anyone sitting 4-8 take our spare parts for their high draft pick? Just reverse the situation and imagine us taking somebody’s scrubs for a high pick. Ain’t gonna happen.
i agree with you, but it could happen
let’s say a team like Minnesota, already owning 2 other 1st round picks, doesn’t like who’s on the board at #4
They could send a contract they don’t want, and the #4 pick, to get a couple of proven NBA talents in Rudy (also a buddy for Rubio if he ever comes over) and Martell, an expiring contract in JPEC, and still get #22 to have three 1st rounders, which they could then bundle and maybe move back up…
not saying’s its likely, but its possible
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions
i like getting the number 4
because it doesnt leave us with a chance to screw up the pick between cousins and favors like if we had the number 3. were only left with 1 option lol.
Yeah, NJ picks Favors and the Blazers are stuck with Cousins
Whoopee!
The kid is still a teenager and he’s already overweight. His draft bio says he’s lazy and selfish?
If KP is hoping to trade up and select DeMarcus, then I can only hope that the proverbial axe falls when he has his evaluation with PA
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
assuming the 76ers draft Turner...which apparently isn't a sure thing at this point
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
i honestly think KP is either after Favors or wes johnson
not cousins cuz of the attitude. so i think we will either get the 5 or the 3. favors will be a dominant PF down low and wes would be great to back up the 2 and the 3. assuming rudy and martell are gone after the trade.
yeah but wes
has length like travis. unliike martell and wes can shoot the three ten times better than both.
maybe Paul George
they worked him out today – he’s a 6’8" 2 guard, and you know how we like “length” for a position, he definitely has that, some are comparing him to Joe Johnson
by rip_city_swagger on May 25, 2010 5:39 PM PDT reply actions
A lot to like about Paul George
If Webster is to be moved for Cap space, George would be a good fit behind Batum.
Good defender (2 steals and almost a block per game), 90+% FT, impressive vision and passing skills,
rebounds well 7 per game, and a good 3pt shooter.
by spencerbutte on May 25, 2010 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Duh - Every pick has a weakness... some more than one
Wall has weaknesses or skills that need improving.
Lucky for the Blazers, we are mainly looking for backup or role-players in this draft.
by spencerbutte on May 25, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
It was pointed out to me
that Westley Johnson could not dribble well enough.
His game seemed to have few flaws but this one.
Westley was a point guard in HS who grew out of that position.
The “Orange-Men” passed the ball around a lot creating shooting opportunities for the SF.
It was pointed out that at the age of 23 he couldn’t improve enough to merit our pick.
Someone can always find a flaw.
by spencerbutte on May 25, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions
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