2009-10 Season Review: Rudy Fernandez
by Dave on May 13, 2010 11:30 PM PDT
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I'm going to be up front with you. This is going to be a hard review to write. It's hard because I like Rudy as a player and personality both, because I'm mindful of the difficulties of switching countries, cultures, and leagues, because I'd like to think Rudy has the offensive potential to be the multi-talented, multi-positional reserve player that would focus the currently fuzzy picture among the Blazer smalls. Despite all of that, two facts are staring me in the face. With injury-inspired minutes begging to be taken and a firmer role hanging low to be grabbed Rudy Fernandez had more opportunity to prove himself this year than in his rookie season. Not only didn't Rudy seize the moment, he actually appeared to regress in key areas.
Let's throw in a couple of mitigating circumstances up front. Rudy himself was injured this year, playing in 62 games, at times looking limp. Rudy was without his wingman, Sergio Rodriguez, author of so many baseline-cut alley-oop passes. Between that and his expectations for role and playing time not being met Fernandez's confidence seemed to erode like a wind-swept sand dune. Rudy relies on confidence more than any other Blazer. Without the swagger he's just not himself. The only time we saw the young hotshot emerge was when he was able to flick a devastating pass to a teammate. Every once in a while we'd see quick-release three-point flurries. But those moments were few and far between.
Fernandez did build modestly in the defense, rebounding, and assist categories. Despite playing 2.4 fewer minutes per game his assists and rebounds remained even, resulting in a slight per-minute increase. His steal, assist, and rebounding percentages all rose. His points given up per 100 possessions fell by 2. All of this shows that he was more comfortable with his place in the game, doing the basic things required of NBA players. Observation confirmed this. Rudy didn't stick out this year the way he did in his rookie campaign. You didn't notice bonehead moves on offense or camping out in no-man's land defensively. That's to his credit. The guy can read a basketball court, an ability which should serve him well as he continues to grow.
This is where the wheels fall off, however. Even with improved defense, rebounding, and a better sense of his place in the game Rudy is no better than average in any of those areas, and that's probably charitable. Rudy will live or die in this league based on the offense he's able to generate. Most of those numbers went into free fall this year. Rudy was ostensibly working on a penetration game to complement his shooting. In a season where that was supposed to be unveiled he ended up shooting 9 out of 10 shots from the perimeter. Many of those were of the "well, I guess so" variety instead of the lethal daggers we saw in his rookie campaign. His overall field goal percentage dropped from 42.5% to 37.8%. True Shooting dropped from 58.8% to 54.0%. Effective Field Goal percentage dropped from 55.2% to 49.4%. His three-point shooting dropped from 39.9% to 36.8%. Shooting 37% from the arc isn't horrible but that percentage comes from a mix of stellar and horrible nights. He shot below 33.3% from the arc in 35 of his 62 games, hitting 0 or 1 three in 32 of those 62. The only thing really shot was Rudy's reliability. As a result his points per 100 possessions dropped from 120 last season to 108 this year. His PER fell 2.4 points to 13.1 as well. Bottom line: Without any kind of back-up plan like easy shots or free throws drawn, Rudy struggled to an anemic 8.1 points per game. That wasn't anybody's vision for his sophomore campaign.
The team stats don't change the impression much. Rudy carried a plus-minus of +0.8 and held the third lowest plus-minus per minute among Portland's regular rotation players. The team's net points per 100 possessions fell 6.4 when Rudy was on the court. Though Portland's Effective Field Goal Percentage Allowed dropped a decent 1% when Fernandez played the team's own Effective Field Goal percentage fell an amazing 3.2% on his watch. Assists went up and turnovers down when Rudy played, however.
One redeeming feature to Rudy's season was improved playoff performance for the second year in a row. His shooting percentages rose remarkably against Phoenix and his offensive points per 100 possessions rating hit 122, hearkening to his rookie year. Unfortunately his defensive points given up per 100 possessions skyrocketed as well to 123.
Rudy's future with the Blazers has always depended on him being able to play multiple positions in multiple situations. In limited minutes at the small forward and point guard positions Rudy was thoroughly outplayed by his counterparts, leaving shooting guard as his only productive position. This was true last year as well. The Blazers are still waiting for progress on this front. Without it Rudy's future in Portland becomes tenuous.
It's no secret that Rudy himself has expressed frustration with his role and opportunities in Portland. This was always going to be an issue with Brandon Roy on the team. The unfortunate thing for Rudy is that he did little to convince anyone that his frustration was worth addressing this year. As soon as you start losing traction you also lose claim to your position in the race. This year Rudy spun out in the grass and never recovered speed. Other players made leaps. He didn't. That's the bottom line.
While the Blazers might listen to offers, might even shop him around, they're not going to give Fernandez away. The potential is still there. The spark and swagger are still there, buried beneath the surface turmoil. It's too soon to give up on him. Both Rudy and his fans must remember that 2010-11 is a new season with new opportunities. If Rudy continues to imrprove incrementally in his overall game and rediscovers his shooting touch he'll be plenty valuable and get enough minutes to keep him content. But those minutes have to be earned. Rudy can't give up. It's on him to make something happen. His summer should be spent planning for exactly that.
Season Performance: D (I have to grade him on his strengths first. If he doesn't hit his shots and contribute offensively the other parts of his game aren't solid enough to pull that grade up.)
Trend: Backsliding
Biggest Question Marks: Confidence, aggression, ability to score on anything besides a jumper
Future with the Team: Could go either way. He's not a must-trade by any stretch. He's more likely to stay than to be moved. But compared against his teammates he's one of the more likely to be talked about this summer.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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A lost season
If he’s still here next year, we’ll find out if it was just a lost season due largely to injury, or if he is on a downward spiral. I don’t think there is any way anyone can tell. Those who write him off do so too soon (there were too many factors working against him this year to be certain he’s a write off), and those who assure us he’ll be fine just weren’t paying attention.
I hope he’s still here because I am confident of the potential, and I don’t want to give up on that yet.
I thought he provided a real defensive spark before his operation. That was the only real encouraging sign from this season, for me. If he can be the offensive spark he was last year and the defensive spark he was becoming in the first 20 games this year, he’s a keeper.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
by jscot on May 13, 2010 11:55 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Well said - I remember that player who dunked on Dwight Howard in the God Medal game!
Rudy seems to thrive in that culture and perhaps will regain some of his swagger playing for Spain this summer in the Worlds.
I do not want to give up on him either. We need shooters and Rudy is a superb shooter.
by lee3022 on May 14, 2010 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Rec for the last sentence
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I definitely agree with you. He has definitely got the potential and the game spirit as well. I feel like he’s not a must-trade candidate. May be we have to wait till Mid season and then make a decision. I have a strong feeling that he might bounce back to be a crouching tiger and not a hidden dragon. He’s a good 3-point shooter, but I dont want him to be only the 3-point shooting guy. He can be a very versatile player, as observed in his rookie year. We shouldn’t try to bring Sergio or other spanish point guard, but he and the rest of the team must learn to play with the point guard we will have in the future. I think that he has got similar game time as his rookie year, but when he was on the court, he didn’t get the ball passed to him as frequently as during his rookie season. All of a sudden, he was asked to play as a starter in the playoffs…playing in the playoffs is harder than playing in the regular season…you need a different mind set, and playing as a starter (as a SG or a swingman), I think is worse…Bottom line is that I think that the coach has to design plays where Rudy gets the ball quite significantly during the time he is on the court.
Dave do you think homesickness for Rudy is a big factor?
Not only was Sergio gone but I believe his girl and his mother were not here either.
Yeah that probably kicked his confidence in the ass a little bit.
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
by Andrew Tolliver on May 14, 2010 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't know...
Sure Rudy had a disappointing sophmore season. Can I offer some excuses? What I find interesting is at the start of the season everyone seemed to understand the struggle of integrating Andre Miller and how it affected Brandon Roy and the entire team. However, nobody seemed to give Rudy any slack. Look at all the outside factors that may of influenced Rudy. With the addition of Miller, the coming and going of Brandon Roy, additionally the absence of Sergio and the upheavel of the entire second unit, with the absence of Outlaw and the eventual departure of Steve Blake.
These are excuses. This team reacted well to sudden and extreme change and adversity and this same adversity did set the table of opportunity for Rudy and I think most people were dissapointed with Rudys contribution.
But I also think nobody potentially suffered more from the everchanging nature of last season than Rudy. Back-Up? Starter? With Andre? WIth Brandon? Be a playmaker, Don’t be a playmaker….
I can’t give up on Rudy, because of what I’ve seen. He has skills, he is a skilled player, his rookie season and his olympic showings are proof of this. Maybe Rudy suffered more in trying to adapt to this season than anyone else. I’m for giving him another year. This wasn’t a wasted season for the franchise, but given the turmoil and the loss of Oden and all the loss of time due to injury it’s dangerous in my opinion to discount what a Rudy Fernandez could offer a team, given health and a stable role.
So I’ve made excuses. But as has been said, next season will be a season of no excuses. No excuses for Brandon, Oden, McMillan, Aldridge or Rudy.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
by Krang on May 14, 2010 12:29 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Fire Nate, Fire Kevin, Get Sergio Back, Problem solved!
by Great Sergios Ghost on May 14, 2010 1:29 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I liked Sergio
always brought effort, was usually good for 2 points, a missed three, 2 assists, and a bad pass
by collectiveshane on May 14, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Rudy relies on confidence more than any other Blazer. Without the swagger he’s just not himself.
I would amend this slightly and say that he relies on his confidence as much as any other Blazer, especially considering we are a young team with Lamarcus and Martell also not brimming with confidence themselves. I agree on the grade and the rest of the analysis, though.
Whether he stays on the team depends on whether he can learn a new position or be satisfied with a bench role. I think it is clear that he handled more point guard duties this year and looked a little lost, trying to develop a penetration move to draw defenders when he is yet neither fast enough nor has an NBA handle. We’ll see how that develops, but since he is clearly an NBA-caliber player, it’s a question of how long and with whom will he play if he finally does develop.
Back to his confidence: I think he needs a veteran player to show him how to battle through tough times and keep playing hard. He unfortunately reminds me of a prodigy who got too much praise too early for his talents and was unable to adjust to a higher level of ability. Some really talented young people are unwilling to leave their comfort zone to improve their abilities because they don’t want to change what got them there. He has that look to me.
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
This makes the case
for using the vet’s minimum to sign a veteran point guard to be last years JHO. Some names that fit the bill are: Anthony Johnson and Anthony Carter. stretching it a bit and you could add Jamaal Tinsley, Eddie House and Derek Fisher to that list. However, those last three names should all want minutes that the Blazers wont have. As much as I hate him, Fisher would be perfect here if he wouldn’t cause a minutes crunch for Bayless / Rudy.
ie. he's a front-runner
The Leeroy Rule: being insistent >>>> being correct
by leeroyjenkins on May 14, 2010 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Frankly, I think he needs to go.
I appreciate all the factors that may have caused him to lose his confidence. It doesn’t bother me that he had a down year, that his shooting stroke abandoned him, and so forth. What bothers me is that it seemed at times like he was just going through the motions, that he didn’t really want to be out on the floor.
If he isn’t hitting his shots, he really doesn’t have anything else to offer. As Dave points out, his defense is, at best, average. Most of the time he is a liability at that end of the floor. He isn’t a particularly good ball handler. He is a good passer, and will occasionally make a sharp, smart pass. But during the last few weeks of the season, he was just visibly unhappy.
Compare him to Martell Webster, who also saw his minutes decline and seemed to lose some confidence in his shot. He continued to play with energy, and improved his defensive skills.
Rudy would be better served somewhere else. At this point, it appears that he would be happier, and it would cut some dead wood out of the Blazers roster.
Unless you get market value, trading him doesn't make basketball sense
he still has a valuable role on this team, even he just splits the difference between the last two years. He’s the best shooter on this team and can get as hot as anyone in the league. He’s also our most adept defensive weapon out there for shooting passing lanes and creating easy scoring opportunities. If you trade him now, given the last half of last year, you won’t be getting value back.
That depends on what you think market value is.
If Portland stays healthy next year, he gets even fewer minutes, which will make him less happy, thus further reducing his value. If he gets his minutes and still can’t produce because his confidence has been further battered, then he has no market value.
He had enough decent games this year that a team with the right system might find him attractive. Furthermore, he is a popular player that could help teams sell tickets and merchandise. I think moving him now is better for him and for the Blazers.
I am also concerned that he might play for the Spanish national team again, thus risking further injury. Balky backs need rest.
The other danger is the possibility that his discontent over playing time begins to poison the locker room.
Let's see what he takes away from this season
This may have been a valuable learning experience for him, depends on how he responds to it.
I was disappointed in his season, too – at times he really did look lost. But, as much of a funk as he was in late in the season, when it came down to a playoff elimination game he pulled himself together. The way he stepped up then makes me think that he does have the mental toughness to fight through this and emerge as a stronger player.
Anyway, what’s the chances of getting anybody better to replace him? If a really good trade comes along, maybe you go for it – but I don’t see that as likely.
Give Rudy a while next year.
Let him fix his attitude, let him remember what he wants, let him make his adjustments, and see what you get next year. If it’s more of the same, trade him. I’m a Rudy fan, but I will not try to claim he had a good year this year. It was rough. But I’ve seen what Rudy can do, and I feel he can come around. Beyond the injuries, for its first half, this year was also one of a great deal of roster-tinkering all around, with a lot of people wondering about their role. Guys like Brandon and LA were already entrenched, but I think Blake, Rudy, Martell, and Bayless were dealing with not understanding what their role was a lot of the time, and none of them had particularly good seasons (no, mindless Bayless-philes, Bayless did not establish himself as a superstar this year). Everything points to next year being different.
Except that Martell and Bayless did take advantage of their opportunities.
You are right, neither established themselves as superstars, and they likely never will. But they both established themselves as players who can be productive, even when they aren’t scoring. They both carried themselves professionally, and gave everything they had on the floor. Neither ever walked around or played as if they were in a funk. Neither so obviously and visibly lost confidence in themselves as Rudy did.
I like Rudy too — he can be a fun player to watch, and he does have some skills. It just really bothers me that for much of the last few weeks of the season, he seemed to give up (except games 5 & 6 against Phoenix).
Totally disagree.
I don’t think Martell or Bayless were any more or less consistent than Rudy. Everyone seems to forget just how bad Bayless played sometimes, or how invisible Martell was for several months. Bayless especially was awful for the last couple months of the season before coming around in the Phoenix series.
Rudy’s bad season has gotten blown up to be much worse than it was, while Bayless’ OK season has been turned into some sort of second coming.
people have very short memories, myself included
Rudy was as streaky as those two, but yes for stretches Bayless was worthless, for a long stretch Martell had a lot of 0-4’s while coming off the bench
by collectiveshane on May 14, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
"Awful for the last couple of months"
As in shooting 40% from 3 pt range? Bayless was our best 3pt shooter for the last two months of the season and that included the last six weeks of the regular season.
Bayless did have a few bad games in the last few weeks, but I think much of that had to do with trying to do a bit too much when the second unit as a whole was struggling. Martell and Rudy shot a combined 35% after the All-Star break. Bayless was using penetration to create open jumpers and the jumpers were not falling.
If you disagree I would like to hear your take supported with some numbers.
by upper left corner on May 15, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Bayless barely took any 3's the last couple months
In the 7 months of the NBA season, Bayless topped 40% once. And that was in a month where he took 13 total 3’s. Over the last two months worth of games, he shot 37%. If you’re just counting March and April he still shot under 40%. And he was barely shooting during that stretch. Isolating numbers like this is a good way to get wacky results.
I've done the math, he shot 40% in April and May according to ESPN
Small sample size is always a risk, but also part of noticing new trends.
Clearly he is improving as a shooter, his numbers are up across the board.
by upper left corner on May 17, 2010 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
He shot 11/30 in April
that’s 37%.
He didn’t play in May, so I don’t know where you’re getting that.
Small sample size.
Chris Duhon, on twice as many shots as Bayless shot 63% on 3’s in April. D.J. Augustin shot 53% on twice as many shots as Bayless. Sergio shot 46% on more shots than Bayless in April too.
In the last half of the year, 41 games, he shot 30%. He shot 31% for the year. Lets try to be a little more rational in arguments.
I don't deny that Bayless and Martell had some bad spots.
Martell in particular seemed to fall out of the rotation, and didn’t do well for a spell. My point was that they never seemed to stop trying. Rudy looked at times like his heart wasn’t in the game.
This psycho analysis of Rudy's mind state is hilarious to me.
Nate and the coaches obviously know and understand what is going in the players heads better than anyone. Nate kept playing Rudy despite some pretty poor play from him. Does anyone really believe that Nate would play a guy that had stopped trying?
My personal belief is that all the signs point to a player with no confidence. For Rudy, this was probably the worst slump of his life and he was lost trying to find a way out of it. Not having his usual support system(something every human wants/needs) certainly didn’t do him any favors.
Where's Rudolfo?
I would like to keep Rudy, but he wants more than he has earned
Two reasons to keep Rudolfo:
1) Portland needs consistent 3 pt shooters to spread the floor for Roy, Miller, and Bayless.
2) Rudy’s small contract makes it difficult to trade him and get reasonable value in return. About the only ways to trade him are to package him with an expiring contract like Pryz or Miller, or trade him to move up in the draft.
Four reasons to let Rudy go:
1) He wants a much bigger role than his play warrants. If Rudy was happy coming off the bench as an energy guy who can drill 3s, the situation would be fine. But he wants to play big minutes and have an important role without having a broad enough range of skills to justify the minutes, or the role.
2) Rudy can only defend one position. He doesn’t have the speed to defend most PGs, nor the strength to defend most SF. As the saying goes, “you are what you can defend.” This lack of flexibility really limits Rudy’s usefulness as a bench player. Ideally you want most of your bench guys to be able to play two positions to give the coach the flexibilitye to deal with injuries and different match-ups.
3) Not only does Rudy play only the position occupied by our best player, for most of this past season, he wasn’t even our second best SG. Our second best SG was Jerryd Bayless. Bayless scored 17.4 pts per 36. Rudy scored 12.6 per 36. Rudy shot a better percentage, but when you factor in Bayless’ ability to get to the line, their TS % were almost identical. Most surprisingly, Bayless actually shot better from 3 pt range for the last two months of the season 40% to 38%. I’m not saying that Bayless is as good a shooter as Rudy, but the gap appears to be narrowing pretty rapidly. Bayless had more assists and a lower TO%.
4) Rudy’s role as back-up SG could rather easily be replaced by apportioning those minutes out to Nic, Martell, and Jerryd/Miller. Different guys would probably excel in different situations and different matchups.
How about a three guard rotation?
Personally, I am inclined to think that we might be best off to rely primarily on a three guard rotation of Roy, Miller, and Bayless. This allows us to take advantage of Bayless’ scoring (he was our second best scorer per 36) and his improving PG defense without relying on him to be our sole distributor at any given time. Bayless needs to play in order to develop, but this season showed that he needs to be placed in the right situation
This three guard rotation would give us two playmakers on the floor at all times. All three guys have different skills, but they all have an ability to create their own shot. Bayless’ shot would need to continue to improve to make this rotation work.
When Roy and Bayless played together, they could take turns initiating the offense. When Roy had the ball, Bayless could play the old Blake role as a spot up shooter, far better than Miller can. When Bayless has the ball, he can collapse the defense and then kick it out to either Roy/Batum/Martell for the open three, or run the P&R with either Aldridge/Oden/Camby.
When Miller and Bayless play together, Bayless can guard the PG and Miller can slide over to SG. Both guys are a bit short to guard SGs, but they both have good size and strength for PGs. This arrangement would help Miller against the really quick PGs that give him a hard time. For instance, I think it is generally recognized that Bayless did much better against Nash than Miller did.
Obviously, there are going to be match-ups where this kind of rotation is not going to work well. In these instances where we need more length or better defense, we could move Nic or Martell to the 2 position.
What do the rest of you think? Am I being blinded by my chronic Baylophilia? Or, does this actually make a lot of sense? To me this gives us more speed and more scoring, without the down side of having our young, inexperienced, combo guard trying to run the offense on his own. It is a way of evaluating the potential of a Roy/Bayless back-court after Miller moves on. If it works, we don’t have to make a big trade to acquire a starting PG. If it doesn’t, we can make a move for another PG at the trade deadline or next summer.
by upper left corner on May 14, 2010 6:24 AM PDT reply actions
I agree with the 3 guard rotation
and that Bayless needs more burn next year.
the team needs to know by feb 2011 if Bayless can step in for Miller for 2011-2012 or if he is not going to cut it. If not, they will not be going anywhere in the playoffs and a move could be made before the trade deadline.
Rudy is on the outside looking in, limited NBA usability, maybe a 7th guy at best on a contending team.
"Better, not good, but better." - Herb Brooks
On paper, the three guard lineup you suggest worries me.
(height, needing the ball, etc…)
But we have seen it played last year to enough success to believe that might be a good idea.
My biggest worry is that Rudy’s regression this season is an anomaly rather than the norm. Because personally, I’d take the 2008-2009 Rudy Fernandez over the 2009-2010 Jerryd Bayless. But the question comes down to was it injuries or attitude (and what degree of which?) for Rudy. Will the rookie Rudy come back to form? or is it a lost cause?
Whatever happens, Rudy is probably here next year. You can’t give Rudy away for nothing, in fear that he’ll come back to haunt you. You can’t trade him for anything of value because of his attitude (perceived or real). So I’m falling into the wait and see camp, only because that is the only viable option at this point. If he turns it around, great! Always good to have another asset. If he doesn’t? At least he doesn’t cost much to keep around. But I really want him to turn it around.
"[S]ince men enjoyed very great leisure, they used it to pursue many kinds of commodities unknown to their fathers, and that was that first yoke they placed upon themselves without thinking about it, and the first source of evils the prepared for their descendants. For, besides continuing thus to soften body and mind, as these commodities had lost almost all their pleasantness through habit, and as they had at the same time degenerated into true needs, being deprived of them became much more cruel than possessing them was sweet; and people were unhappy to lose them without being happy to have them." -Jean-Jacques Rousseau
by T Darkstar on May 14, 2010 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I expect Bayless to continue to improve significantly
I think it is less a question of 2008 Rudy vs. 2009 Bayless, than it is a question of 2010 Rudy vs. 2010 Bayless.
I don’t expect Rudy to improve significantly. The limitations I see in his game are less a matter of skill, and more a matter of physical abilities. Rudy, at 25 after seven years as a pro, is unlikely to improve dramatically. His body is what it is. I don’t think he has the strength or explosiveness to find consistent success getting to the rim. He doesn’t have an NBA quality handle to consistently get his own shot. He is always going to be limited defensively by his lack of strength.
On the other hand, I think Bayless, at age 21, has a ton of room for growth. He had the biggest increase in PER of any player on the roster, from a lousy 8.2 to a decent 14.2. For much of the season Bayless was around 16 until he had a small slump trying to do too much when the second unit was collectively struggling at the end of the season. He had a nice playoff at 15.6. I expect him to be somewhere in the 16 to 18 range next season, if he is used correctly. Rudy was at 15.5 last year and regressed to 13.1 this year. Part of that might have been the injuries and unhappiness, but some of that was teams learning how to guard him and him not being able to respond.
Basically, even if Rudy can get back to where he was in 2008, I expect that that will be less productive than the 2010 edition of Bayless. Obviously, I could be wrong, but there are real statistical reasons to believe that I am not. If you look at second year backcourt players who have stats similar to Bayless in FTA/36, TS%, and Assist% and look at how those players developed. Every single one went on to become a solid starter and over half have become All-Stars.
Like I said in my original comment, I would like Rudy to be here because we could use his energy and his excellent spot-up shooting in situations where other teams are packing the middle. But if you look at the teams overall production, I think there is a solid case to be made for Bayless taking some of Rudy’s minutes. Rudy wants more minutes not fewer. Is he going to be miserable and ineffective if he doesn’t get them? Do we want to keep him if that is the most likely scenario? I’m not sure. In my mind, it depends on what we could get in return.
by upper left corner on May 14, 2010 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions
“I’d take the 2008-2009 Rudy Fernandez over the 2009-2010 Jerryd Bayless”
- Agreed
by collectiveshane on May 14, 2010 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Differences of opinion are great.....
Part of the reason I come here is to discuss the game and the players. Everybody has different preferences and different evaluations. Part of the fun is discussing our different takes.
However, I must confess frustration with folks who make sweeping or dismissive statements like yours without giving any explanation of their opinion and no evidence or analysis to back up their opinion.
I just spent a considerable amount of time writing the posts above and trying to explain my reasoning and providing a lot of stats to back up my opinion. You respond with “Bayless is a mirage.”
Care to explain your reasoning and give some support to your opinion? This isn’t religion where I say, “I believe,” and you say, “I don’t.” This is evaluating basketball players. Seems like we ought to be able to discuss things in a rational and reasonable way.
by upper left corner on May 15, 2010 4:52 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
ULC brings his A game every time (right or wrong)—it’s fair that others do the same if they’re going to disagree.
Andre Miller is the old guy in the corner at the YMCA who gets picked last and then wins the game singlehandedly with sky hooks from the deep right corner. - dwaynebillybob
btw ULC
You and stavrogin have disagreed about Bayless in the past.
Andre Miller is the old guy in the corner at the YMCA who gets picked last and then wins the game singlehandedly with sky hooks from the deep right corner. - dwaynebillybob
I spoke in reference to someone else's statement
comparing the 2008-2009 Fernandez to the 2009-2010 Bayless. I was not aware that in giving a thumb’s up to someone else’s comment I had to back myself up.
But here are those numbers about Fernandez and Bayless:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=AwlmD
And here’s Bayless matching up with Rudy and Martell this year:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=Q4tUr
All of which do not show Bayless to be significantly better than anyone else.
I come to Blazer’s Edge to hash things out, and was speaking in response to another link. I find your sanctimonious posturing extremely pompous. I will definitely be writing Dave about this.
Took me a while to see that you had responded
I don’t think I called you any names, applied any derogatory adjectives, or any any way questioned your manhood.
I expressed frustration with posts like yours that make quick one liner assertions without any evidence to back them up. You respond with"
I find your sanctimonious posturing extremely pompous.
Sorry, if you had that response. I was simply trying to figure out how to engage you in a substantive conversation about a subject were we have very different opinions. I have left comments for you in a couple of other places and received no response at all. I’m not trying to start a food fight; I’m trying to start a conversation.
by upper left corner on May 17, 2010 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I have spoken at length about why I don't like Bayless before.
You know that.
But I do like to talk more in terms of a general impression of how a player affects a game, whether good things tend to happen or bad things when he or she is on the floor. I am not a stats-cruncher. I think stats can be extremely misleading. I am just a fan that likes to talk his impressions.
And in all frankness I find your habit of cherry-picking really obscure stats to back up your point a bit pathetic. You ignore the standard stat-line, and repeatedly bring up per-36 stats, 3-pt percentage for some chosen period, etc., and then try to use this to prove Bayless is in the same league as Kobe, Carter, etc, and so I just don’t see you as someone I can have a rational discussion with.
Fair enough?
I am not so sure about that 3 guard lineup
Thats a lot of penetrating and a real lack of shooting on the floor. Yes, Bayless shot the ball well from 3 after the all star break, but he only made 1 every 2 games or so. There is an astronomical difference between a guy that shoots 40% from deep and makes 2+ a game and a guy that shoots 40% and makes .5 a game. One is a legitimate threat and spreads the floor, the other most likely just takes advantage of a defense that chooses to give him that shot.
The key problem I see here revolves around Greg Oden. With that 3 guard rotation, all three of your guards need to get into the paint to be effective. There is not much room for adjustments with that rotation, the players are all so similar. Every one of them is looking to get to the rim and score. Even if you believe Bayless is better than Rudy, you have to admit that Rudy brings a change of pace to the guard position. He creates movement off the ball(just ask Nate), he is a very good shooter, despite somewhat of a down year. He finds ways to be effective without the ball in his hands by generating steals, crashing the board, and getting out on the break. He wasnt himself after that quad injury, but he will get back to doing these things again next season. Guaransheed.
Where's Rudolfo?
I agree that the lack of long ball would be the biggest potential concern.
Roy is about 35% from 3 pt range. I expect Bayless to be at least that good next season. Miller is at about 25%. I would be asking all three guys to work on their threes over the summer.
Next, you need to factor in that our SFs are our volume long ball shooters. Nic was a little streaky, and Marty was really streaky, but both guys can definitely shoot a solid %. I would also like to see LMA work on adding a corner three to his arsenal a la Rashard Lewis. I think he could do it well in certain sets.
I do disagree with your comment that all three guys need to get into the paint to be effective. Roy has a great mid-range game with all of his spins, pivots, and fall aways. Miller is pretty good from 15 ft. in, even if it looks ugly and often bounces on the front rim before going in. Bayless definitely needs to work on a floater to give him more options when the lane is crowded. I guess my point is that although all three guys are effective going to the rim off the drive, their techniques and approaches are pretty different. Bayless relies on his first step and his speed and elevation. Miller relies on misdirection and changing speeds. Roy depends on his ability to change directions and angles.
My problem with Rudy is that I think he wants a lot bigger role than his play justifies. Therefore, I think he is likely to continue to be unhappy. I would be happy to keep a happy Rudy who is spreading the floor like he did in his rookie year. I want no part of the grumpy, sad, discombobulated Rudy who looked like he had quit trying for much of the playoffs. Rudy is tough to trade without a package deal because of his small contract.
We will see. I am not trying to be categorical, just noting that I think Bayless brought more to the table this year and has earned more minutes, and that his presence on the floor can help both Miller and Roy in different ways. He can spread the floor for Roy and he can help Miller defend the quick PGs that give him trouble.
by upper left corner on May 17, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Rudy love in 3...2...1...
Fernandez is awesome. Plain and simple. He’s got the game, we all know that. Whatever it takes to rebuild his confidence, lets do more of that. When he’s on he’s on (see: scoring 5 points in 3 seconds againts Phoenix).
Obviously I can’t speak for him, but with Sergio gone, and his mom and girlfriend not around, maybe he does feel alone. Maybe there isn’t anyone he can really relate to right now. Even with all of us cheering for him every night, maybe he just doesn’t feel right. We CAN’T cast him aside for one bad year – not cool.
This is going to be a big year for him. We’ll see what he’s made of, and I think he’ll deliver. Portland needs a little Spanish swagger.
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
by Andrew Tolliver on May 14, 2010 6:31 AM PDT reply actions
Marty scored like 30 in a quarter once, given your model Marty is the best player in the NBA ever
The Leeroy Rule: being insistent >>>> being correct
by leeroyjenkins on May 14, 2010 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions
He's not?
"[S]ince men enjoyed very great leisure, they used it to pursue many kinds of commodities unknown to their fathers, and that was that first yoke they placed upon themselves without thinking about it, and the first source of evils the prepared for their descendants. For, besides continuing thus to soften body and mind, as these commodities had lost almost all their pleasantness through habit, and as they had at the same time degenerated into true needs, being deprived of them became much more cruel than possessing them was sweet; and people were unhappy to lose them without being happy to have them." -Jean-Jacques Rousseau
If he isn't ...
… then I’m sure it is only a matter of time before he is.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
PER of 13.1 is below average rather than awesome.
Rudy struggled on both ends of the floor. It isn’t really a matter of opinion, the stats make it pretty clear.
He has “skilz,” but he wants more, when his play deserves less.
by upper left corner on May 14, 2010 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Martell's PER was around 12 wasn't it?
while looking on the trade machine i was like “wow, Martell is less efficient then Rudy yet everyone praises Martell and bashes Rudy”
by collectiveshane on May 14, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not considering defense because this is an offensive stat..
by collectiveshane on May 14, 2010 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I know, but one reason people might be praising Martell and bashing Rudy is because even though they are about the same level of efficiency on offense, Martell is a decent to good defender, while Rudy is poor.
fair point
Andre Miller is the old guy in the corner at the YMCA who gets picked last and then wins the game singlehandedly with sky hooks from the deep right corner. - dwaynebillybob
I like your optimism
This is going to be a big year for him. We’ll see what he’s made of. . .
This is correct. It will be a big year. Rudy will have another year to prove his progress and establish his place. We all want him to succeed. We need shooters and we have seen that Rudy can sustain effective 3-point shooting that can rip the heart out of an opponent. He has played in big games for Spain and excelled and this summer’s National team should help him regain that “Spanish swagger”. Rudy playing alongside both Gasols, Ricky, Calderon and Claver will be good for Portland to watch and regain some optimism in his value.
This was more what his rookie season would've looked like, minus Sergio
Don’t get me wrong, the Spanish Armada was a sight to behold but in the end really set him up for a fall in year 2 without Sergio. Since they’d played together a few years on the Spanish National Team Sergio already knew exactly how to set Rudy up for alley oops and back door passes, they did two in the very first preseason game, so there was no adjustment period needed. Blake did a pretty good job of setting Rudy up too so it all worked pretty well. Not to mention the fact that Rudy and Sergio were already good, good friends so having to move to another country with a different language was much easier … I’m sure not too many guys coming over from Europe have that.
Now, when he comes back the second year with no Sergio and new players to adjust to he had a tough time of it … and played more like a rookie trying to find his footing on a new team than a second year player. The injury didn’t help and his confidence slipped … sometimes it seemed to leave entirely. He had a tough year on and off the court as nothing came as easy as it did the first year. Dave’s right, he has to work for it and this year probably taught him that. No one seemed to notice that while he was saying he was frustrated with playing time he was also acknowledging that he knew he wasn’t playing as well or with confidence so he had to understand the situation even if it frustrated him.
Hopefully, this next year he’ll return knowing he’s got to work hard and it’ll all turn around for him … playing with the Spanish National Team again will help build his confidence again and since Nate will be there with TeamUSA maybe it’ll remind him how Rudy plays well.
Right on the money
many times I saw Rudy come open at the 3 pt line and no pass. Either bayless had his head down or Miller was trying to get inside. No ball to Rudy. No open 3. He was marketed as a valued performer on the team but he needs others get him the ball at the right time. When he did not get that consistently his performance, attitude and confidence went in the tank. I think we could have been better at getting more out of Rudy but with all the upheaval on the team it turned into a fire drill and he was left out since he can’t get his own. I think he has always been that gifted, pretty boy and does not have the experience to draw on of being tough and fighting through. I hope it works out next year but I do not see consistent minutes for him and, if not, he is likely to go in the tank again…
by LicketyBrindleDowntheMiddle on May 14, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I like Rudy & think he will bounce back.
I believe Rudy’s biggest problem this year was his back injury. Anyone who has Had such a problem knows it is a long slow healing process. That said with the improvement of Bayless & return of Martell I think the time to move Rudy is now. To me it’s not a matter of giving up on Rudy as his skills are more easily replaced. I expect with JBay’s work ethic his shooting will be even better next year & personally I put more value on versatility & defense. Everyone will have a different view about what is market value, to me if a pick + Rudy gets us a top 12 pick (say 9-12 area) mission accomplished.
Somebody step up! - Mike Rice
by We-B-Dunkin on May 14, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
It seemed often true of all the 3-point shooters with Miller
I would like to see a statistical breakout of Miller’s assists and from whom they were earned (shots made to get the assist). My lasting impression was that opponents did not cover our 3-point shooters while they packed the middle. Brandon did find the open shooter and by the end of the year I think Bayless was looking more to pass than to score and got mixed results when he did. But nights when Batum was 3 for 3 from 3 and was ignored while open made me want to yell out in frustration. Did anyone else see it that way?
mhm especially when rudy has it.
loveisrespect
by portlandgiirl91 on May 14, 2010 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
That's right GIIRL,
I bring home the Jack Palance reference, and I’m looking for all the Blazer Giirls.
You go!
by damonrayhymer on May 14, 2010 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Victor? Next season? Tradeable assets together?
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!
Not likely to happen - Victor will come over next summer or the year after and will be a great addition
We need to keep adding youth and talent.
Bull Durham
I’m just saying maybe he should get someone to teach him the lesson Crash gave Nuke on the bus, about what to say to reporters. He would do well to stick with words like “God willing… Great team… Lucky to be here…”
You see, I can’t talk about Rudy without bad feelings getting in the way. I’m not concerned with the post-draft rookie hype, the Olympic legends, the first season accolades.
What made me mad was the promise which Rudy made to us, the fans, when he was ripping on coach for not letting Rudy play his way. I know he was in frequent pain, and I honor the sacrifice that he made to play through it. But the media blitzes came after he got hurt, even after he finished surgery and rehab. And not only did I take him at his word, but I emphatically supported him right here on Blazers Edge. I was so mad at coach and team for not listening to that poor, misused budding superstar. And now I personally feel like I was the one who got used. Now I feel like a chump.
Thank god for Andre Miller. He too spoke out about being mistreated. He too gained my trust and confidence. Buy Dre is a man… and his words have value.
Thank god for Martell Webster. That man kept his words clean. He learned the lesson of Crash Davis. He has his challenges but he works and works and doesn’t ask for my sympathy.
Thank god for Jerryd Bayless who complains a little, apologizes for his loose tongue, and works his ass off — can I say that here??
I’m an emotional fan and Rudy can win me back with exceptional performance. But I sincerely hope that I remember to never believe the things he says.
by jiminut on May 14, 2010 7:45 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
He barely speaks english
things come across badly at times
by collectiveshane on May 14, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
That's a good point..
It is hard to show a lot of finesse in a second language, and people would get pretty tired with “bueno, bueno” all the time.
Not to mention, some of the “objectionable” material is interviews in Spanish intended for that audience, translated and forwarded for an audience they were not intended for..
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
Yeah, that's why I referenced Bull Durham
Nuke LaLoosh could barely speak English. I don’t object to the statements, just the lack of follow through. Put up or shut up.
love him.. don't want him to go..
hope he can develop a harder work ethic for developing the weaker parts of his game..
I fight like a girl
"Being mad ruins my day way more than it ruins the day of the person I’m mad at." -Dave Blazer's Edge
Please...bye
If there was ever a player that embodied the homerism…
He’s mediocre on offense and terrible on defense. I mean how bad does a player have to be before some fans will give up on him???
The Leeroy Rule: being insistent >>>> being correct
pretty much I think Rudy gave up when Sergio left
let’s be real
The Leeroy Rule: being insistent >>>> being correct
by leeroyjenkins on May 14, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions
gave up..
yeah, because Sergio played SO much and helped him SO much and Rudy already makes so much money and is pretty much set the rest of his career, why should he try?
by collectiveshane on May 18, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
If Rudy is unhappy
Rudy has indicated that he is unhappy with Portland.
He is acting like he is pouting more then lost of confidence.
He seems to have a grudge or a chip on his shoulder against Portland.
He has made statements that he is not BRoy.
He has made statements that his job is to give good floor spacing and he is doing that.
He act like he got his butt chewed out for doing more in a possession that what was wanted, much like Batum getting reprimanded for not staying in his role.
There just seems like there is too many he’s and not enough team. I
If he really wants it, he is good enough to get it.
The big question is, does he want it or does he want traded?
In the footsteps of Sergio, it is easier to run then it is to stay and fight the battles. Is that good for the team?
hg
I'd give him a C-.
He improved in some areas and regressed in others. The regression could have been due to physical reasons. Additionally, enduring a sophmore slump is not exactly uncommon. If Rudy’s performance earned him a B last season, then I don’t see that he regressed so badly that he’s now a D student.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Honest question.
Where did he improve?
His handle? Nope
His assist rate? Nope
His 3 pt%? Nope
His 2 pt%? Nope
His turnovers? Nope …
I dunno, it was pretty much a regression across the board in all statistical categories (with similar minutes).
Well, accoding to Dave's review ....
…. he did improve in playing defense, rebounding and assists.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
by timg56 on May 14, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
If Rudy is unhappy in Portland--it is time to let him go
If he is not unhappy and wants to play then give him time to play in healthy times.
He acts like he angry with the team management.
He act like he has a chip on his shoulder whether then being becuase of lack of confidence.
He is angry with the media, but then pouts to them saying he is not BRoy and his job is to spread the floor and he is doing that.
He acts like he got his butt chewed on for trying to do more than is wanted from him at that time, much like Batum getting reprimanded for not staying in his 4Th or 5th pecking order spot.
He may be homesick but that is not a reason.
He is good enough if he wants it
The question is does he want it, and stay and fight the adversity or does he want to run like Sergio
There may be just too many he’s in his life and not enough we’s, or in saying it is more about him then it is the team.
hg
I hope he stays and improves
because I like having the Spaniards here with us on BE. – Elgin
GOP in HD
by 22baylor on May 14, 2010 9:21 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Rudy's problem all started with and continued with the point guard
At the start of the season, Rudy was paired with a malcontent back-up point guard who refused to pass Rudy the ball, just to spite the head coach. Then when Roy got hurt and Rudy was allowed to start, the starting point guard could not let his resentment go and he continued to ignore Rudy unless there was less than 5 seconds on the shot clock.
He was rarely passed to
especially by Roy, of all people. Roy NEVER passed to Rudy
by collectiveshane on May 14, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Malcontent?
Considering how absurd his backup role was, I think Andre handled it fairly professionally. He never said anything, actually.
I'm just not crazy about player nick names...
by Hipster Olympic Team! on May 14, 2010 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
That is not really correct
He never said anything, actually.
.
.
.
.
You may not agree with Nate about having Dre come off the bench to start the year…and may empathize with Dre being unhappy about it…..but that being said, it can’t be denied that Dre did complain to the press …which is usually considered a big no-no team chemistry-wise. Teams like keep that stuff in house. Here are the quotes from Yahoo Sports:
"If I was told right out when I had my meetings that I would be a backup, then I wouldn’t have come here,"
and
"I feel like I have to continue to prove myself," Miller said. "I don’t think I’m respected as a player. I have no idea [why].
It should be noted that there is really only one reason a player would do that (make those statements)….he disagreed with the coach’s decision to play him off the bench and was trying to force him into starting him. It is Nate’s job to make these decisions…and he has a fair expectation that the players not intentionally undercut him…which is what Dre did by going to the press with this. We shouldn’t forget this
Phil Mickelson: "A Great shot is when you pull it off.....a smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try it"’
by 92wastheyear on May 15, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
They SHOULD have told him that up front.
It was clear during the summer that BRoy and Nate didn’t respect Andre’s body of work when they endorsed Blake as starter BEFORE TRAINING CAMP. Their comments were the real problem.
Why should Andre backup Blake? This is the guy who got the Clippers and last year’s Sixers to the playoffs. He should have at least been given an equal shot to start. From that respect I can see where he would go tit for tat with BRoy’s comments.
I'm just not crazy about player nick names...
by Hipster Olympic Team! on May 15, 2010 1:17 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
It was Nate's decision to make...whether we agree with it or not
When asked, it is also Nate’s position to explain to the press why….in this case, the idea was to split up the play makers, plus have someone to spread the court with Roy, leaving Dre to create for for the second unit that really had no play makers available. Roy’s comments were totally in line with his coach’s. Whether you (or Dre) agreed with this strategy or not is not really the point…..Dre’s reaction to it was. Going to the press to express your dissatisfaction with the coach’s decision is not acting professionally….period. Did Joel gripe to the press about Greg being named the starter? No. I know that if I disagreed with my boss….and went public with it…or even to a bunch of my co-workers…I would likely be fired.
As far whether he should have been given assurances that he would start before signing…I say no way. That is solely the coach’s decision before each and every game and it just isn’t done….no promises. Besides that ….Nate says that he did tell Dre that he might have him coming off the bench.
Phil Mickelson: "A Great shot is when you pull it off.....a smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try it"’
by 92wastheyear on May 15, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I sort of got a different take on Miller's signing
I’m sure both Nate and Kp knew what type of player they were getting in him. Definitely something different than what they were used to. So it should have been expected that there would be an adjustment period (hopefully much of this in training camp and pre-season) Basically it simply didn’t play out that way, for several reasons debated in here quite often. The most obvious was the, already in place offensive plan, with Roy either starting the play or immediately deferred to through Blake.
My personal opinion of this is that Nate was not interested in changing this style from the get go and thus decided that Miller would be put on the second unit and would have to earn a spot on the first unit. This is reasonable, since they already had a proven result and a qualified respect between Roy and Blake. However, this left the whole reason for the Miller signing as suspect and questionable. Some intial comments from KP and Nate were that he could give them more options and help take some pressure off of Roy.
Miller was never really given the full opportinity to be himself and therefore frustration started to set in. I mean he could have set there and literally died as a player in a system that would give him little opportunity to show his worth, or speak out and get something resolved once and for all. It’s human nature for people to speak out in support of themselves and Miller was confident his way(also proven) would work if given the chance. My view is that he was not given that chance in the beginning.
Although I do not think Miller handled it professionally at all, I do understand why he did it and therefore have put it behind me rather quickly. I would also think that is true for Nate, Miller, and his teammates.
But my real puzzlement is how did this get to be a discussion about Miller, Roy, and Nate? I thought the post was about Rudy?
It's all about defense......
by 67 on May 15, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually they did tell him right up front
That first week Nate told us what he had talked about with Andre and KP and how Andre had outlined a plan for himself to contribute – it was why they signed him. That plan, according to Nate, was for Andre to run up-temp with the white team and set up Rudy, Martell or Nic, and Bayless in that unit. The fact that the team never contradicted Andre when he spoke to the media speaks more to their professionalism and desire to preserve his value in the season and for trade than it does to agreement.
If Andre and Nate and KP agreed to a different plan KP might have insisted that Nate follow it.
I know.
Blake was never throwing him those lobs.
by Nick Van Excellent on May 14, 2010 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I am not sure who you are speaking of,
but I really don’t think I saw that from either Blake or Miller.
Oden
Oden was mad because he was not allowed to play his natural position. Point center. Rudy criticized Oden’s handle as well as his ability to defend point guards, and that was it. After he was injured Greg continued to use his political clout to keep the ball away from Rudy.
"It's a team game." Please, feel free to factor that into your statistical analysis!
Rudy will struggle in the system
Without some free-flowing, more imaginative, and flexible additions( via new enviroment ), Rudy’s game will continue to suffer. Europeans typically have a more open style of play that’s less inhibited by a coaching strategy…Nate has set the rules and it simply doesn’t fit some players the same as it does our star, Roy. (A match made in basketball heaven for Roy but not for some others on the team)
I leave the “via a new environment” open, as in, draw your own conclusions, but (IMO) Nate has narrowed Rudy’s avenue to succeed, by dictating his contribution points from a limited offensive strategy. Rudy may have a lot more to offer than spot up 3’s. We saw this in season 1 but not much in season 2. His energy level seemed to be down as well. Like he was lost out there, not knowing what he should do…this happens in an iso offense quite a lot, because it tends to make spectators out of the rest of the team.
( latest example=Cleveland )
I still think Rudy is an NBA caliber player and given the right circumstances could be an asset. However, I also think that he will easily be discouraged and might be quick to consider some alternative to playing under Nate. (Kinda hard to turn away from being a hero in Spain and more money to boot…+ actually playing the game you love, as opposed to sitting and watching….)
I'd like to see what would happen with Rudy on NY or even OC, for instance.
But, of course I agree. It is tougher for experienced players (and Rudy has a well developed style in international play) to “start over” and “play the right way”. This force fitting players into a system can be a destructive tendency, that inevetably cuts out some of the potential a given player may have. Of course, there always must be accomodations/considerations in service of the team. But when the team is a forced system which fails to optimize the utilization of players talents, it is a problem.
It is a style/mindset thing, sort of like the military model verses the band model – as a musician, I like the band analogy. Playing under some control freak who sticks sheet music in front of you is all the difference in the world from, say, improvisational jazz, for an extreme example. Walton used the band analogy for a team. That is the kind of team I most enjoy. There is a structure, but freedon within the structure to adapt, create and improvise. That is way tougher to predict and defend. It is way more challenging and engrosing for the players. I wish that was the “right way” we were teaching our players. Not to mention, it would be easier for our veterans to contribute all they can, rather than get in a battle for control.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
Time machine, take me away ....
Good comments.
And I am now imagining Rudy running under Jack Ramsay and the 1977 team.
I don’t know what your version would be like, but mine is a pretty great imaginary highlight reel. Rudy would, of course, have even crazier hair and wristbands. And sideburns, Jackie Moon style. The creative zip passes to a driving Twardzik would be things of beauty, Walton would actually find him open for jump shots like clockwork, and his style of play would not only have been appreciated by the Portland faithful, but inspire several new phrases from the Schonz.
Okay, so the only thing more fun that over-hyping Rudy is over-hyping him in a different era. Still, it’s fun to think about. Alas, he just may be in the wrong system, but also the wrong era of basketball.
by HowlinJoeWolf on May 14, 2010 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
yes something can be said
for entertainment value. I really think there are some people in here that don’t know what a defense first, running game looks like. Ramsey was quoted as saying “If you play good defense the offense will take care of itself” A philosophy that was later proven in the championship run. Beating the favorite Philadelphia (half court philosophy) by running right up their backs…..They had the right guy in Walton to install a fundamentally sound defense and a scorching running game. Waton’s court awareness, passing ability (with the outlet pass at the forefront) was top notch (Two great Basketball minds in Wooden and Ramsey providing the basic fundamentals that helped any player interested)
I guess that is why I am sometimes more skeptical or not as positive towards the currrent Blazer team . As I have deemed I’ve seen the best, so it’s hard to accept anything less…
In July, Rudy will quietly ask his agent to find a way to get him out of Portland.
Book it. I’m not physic, just a man with woman’s intuition.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
ugh... you just shove the knife in and keep twisting it don't you?!?!
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
Rudy's problem is how silly fan expectations were.
We expected him to come in and dunk on people and that’s just not his game. He’s a gutty, often sweet shooting shooting guard without a true NBA handle, inexperienced playmaking skills against opponents with long arms, and no ability to finish at the rim consistently. He had EVERY opportunity to show otherwise and simply came up short all season.
His off ball D is crafty at times but he is otherwise a liability 1-on-1 or when running through picks.
I see no reason furthering this experiment. Martel can shoot and is MUCH less of a liability on D. Rudy is redundant and needs to be swapped for a serviceable backup 4 or packaged for a PG prospect of the future.
I'm just not crazy about player nick names...
by Hipster Olympic Team! on May 14, 2010 1:53 PM PDT reply actions
Rudy's choices this Summer will reveal his future in the NBA
The decline in Rudy’s confidence most likely stems from the several times he was viciously clothes lined when taking the ball to the hole. While this reaction is understandable, Rudy’s apparent unwillingness to undertake the the obvious remedial action – big time body building – is not. I suspect that this summer will reveal whether Rudy has the drive to live up to his promise. If he plays for Spain, we will know that he does not now value either recuperation or the need to add some muscle. Should that happen, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Rudy can become an above average wing in the NBA. If Rudy spends the summer with a trainer and only a trainer, we will have good reason to keep hope alive.
I can tell you all one thing Rudy needed this past season:
He needed to be around people he could relate to again. The above photo is Rudy at the Spanish open in Madrid, pal’ing around with Nadal and such. This is only a few days ago. I think he lost a lot of his confidence simply by not having Sergio or his mother around. A lot of Blazer fans don’t realize that he had more family & friends in town last year. Sure, he should grow up and be his own man. Just remember that Spanish life is a hell of a lot different than life in Oregon, USA. He’s a celebrity in Spain and I bet he’s loving the attention there right now.
"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.
Well you sound like a man who's lived in both places.
Tell me, the overall quality of life is probably better in Spain than it is in Oregon – no?
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
That makes sense to me..
I hope he get energized and encouraged. Then, when he gets back, take advantage of the “always open” door to Nate, and have a heart to heart. See if they can make something good happen.
I am concerned that the back injury could be a lasting problem. But then, I had a crushed disc in my back, and never the same. Bummer. Hopfully his is not that bad. Not like that is going to get advertised.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
Rudy
played well in the playoffs? You lost me with that one. Rudy could not be counted on offensively in the playoffs and his defense was completely non-existent.
Watching JRich run him off two curls for 2 easy layups was the defining moment for Rudy. Rudy chases people, he doesn’t guard them. The smartest thing the Blazers can do is trade Rudy even if it’s for a draft pick before he walks back to Europe.
Keep Rudy
The Blazers will not win with the current offensive scheme. No one really thrived with the Roy or LA plays one-on-one offense. When you look at Rudy’s shooting percentage, you have to factor in the fact that plays were not run for Rudy. He was, at best a second thought in the offense. Change the offensive scheme and he will thrive (look at Channing). Keep it the same, and we can spend another year hoping to get into the first round. With the iso offense, if Greg comes back, he will confuse Broy by blocking the center. LA will still be seen as too soft, and our outside shooters will not have consistent good days. Change the offense, spread the floor, and share the ball, and everyone will look good.
Otherwise, it would be merciful to trade Rudy, Martel, Jerryd and Nic (even if we don’t trade them, they’ll be ignored. I was only suggesting a trade out of respect for the players’ talent), and then get Blake back and he and BRoy can play catch. It won’t be a winning strategy, it won’t be fun to watch, but it’s what I expect.
Best team for Rudy would be Phoenix
Gentry’s system, the sun (literally) and more Spanish-language media. But I doubt that team makes many off-season moves. They have a very legit shot at getting past LA.
yeah, Phoenix could be a real market for our "cast offs"
I’m sure they are happy with Frye, and I am happy for him.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
We’ll give you Rudy. You give us Dragic. Sounds good to me!
"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.
A little Dragic history
Under then-coach Terry Porter, Dragic played in just 26 of 51 games.
“I was struggling. … I was doubting me if I was good enough for this league,” he said.
After Gentry, who was committed to developing a deeper bench, took over at the all-star break during the 2008-09 season, Dragic appeared in 29 of 31 games and his confidence grew with every minute played.
“Alvin gave me a lot of opportunities, and he says, ‘Son, just keep playing your game. Don’t worry if you’re going to make some mistakes. Just play your game,’” Dragic said.
“My confidence is huge right now. … This year is totally different. I feel like I’m playing back in Europe with my friends. I’m really relaxed and just playing my game.”
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
I have admired Gentry's handling of Dragic
But the first half of any rookie’s season can be murder no matter who the coach.
Rudy had ample opportunity in his second year to build on his first. That is did not work out may be more indicative of his sophomore season and losing his family in Portland than in the coaching.
No. It was coaching.
McMillan is as notorious killing confidence as anything else. Nearly every young player who has had to work their way into games has suffered through his wrath.
Young players like ...
… Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Batum and Cunningham?
I won’t argue against the fact that McMillan is a coach who believes in limiting turnovers and smart execution and therefore is not the sort to allow a lot of mistakes in those areas. For players who have trouble understanding what Nate values, sure I can see them developing confidence issues, a portion of which is on the coach. But I can’t agree with such a blanket statement that McMillan is a notorious confidence killer.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Sergio didn't just help him with his at the basket game
but he also assisted a ton on his jumpers. A very high number of Rudy’s shots were of the sergio pushing the ball up on the break, rudy trailing, sergio flipping the ball to him while screening the defenders that were back, rudy hitting the wide wide open 3 variety.
Rudy almost always started his stints with one or two of these open jumpers that sergio was brilliant in creating for him, and the confidence of getting the first couple down really matters to Rudy’s game. If he hits one of his first couple, he stays aggressive and plays within himself. When he doesn’t, he gets tentative and useless.
Rudy’s a guy who can’t create his own shot. Last season, he had a PG who was extra committed (almost to the team’s detriment) to creating open shots for him. This season he didn’t.
and I guess just in general, I think one thing that Sergio was really underrated for
was his ability to generate good 3 point looks for people. Folks focused on his spectacular alley oops and passes leading to dunks, but his real gift is his ability to get teammates open 3 pointers.
by howlingfantods on May 15, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
It begs the question - why was that not coming from Andre and Bayless?
Bayless seemed to want to pass to open teammates on the three but Andre did not seem to do so, at least not to Rudy or Batum.
Maybe this is a question for TiH. Could it have anything to do with Rudy starting the year playing crunch time while Miller watched from the bench?
the two most efficient shots in the game...
close in dunk types and 3’s…
Poor kid. Nobody in Portland cares about efficiency.
to those who would take the 2010 Bayless over the 2009 Fernandez
Bayless 2010:
41% FG … .315% 3PT … 8.5 points … 2.3 Assists … 1.3 TO … .35 steals
Fernandez 2009:
42% FG … 40% 3PT … 10.4 points … 2 assists … 1.1 TO …. .9 steals
honestly show me where other than maybe aggressive D and free throws where Bayless was better this year than what Rudy showed his rookie year
by collectiveshane on May 16, 2010 10:16 AM PDT reply actions
Minutes per game
Rex 17.6 mpg
Rudy 25.6 mpg
Phil Mickelson: "A Great shot is when you pull it off.....a smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try it"’
by 92wastheyear on May 16, 2010 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah...looks like Rex is the more aggresive player
but we knew that
Phil Mickelson: "A Great shot is when you pull it off.....a smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try it"’
by 92wastheyear on May 16, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
%AST. If you’re creating a large portion of your shots, you’ll be less efficient than someone who is a spot-up shooter. Rudy has a very high percentage assisted, so his efficiency should be greater than that of Bayless.
#52
To be fair the difference was pretty massive
.588 to .534
And guys that create shots for themselves at the expense of shots for others lower overall team efficiency. Rudy last year was an efficiency amplifier. Even the shots Rudy created for his teammates were better than those that Bayless did. Rudy created more 3’s, close in shots and dunks, while Bayless’ were mainly mid range jumpers.
It is all about getting to the line with Bayless
Bayless’ ability to get to the line 6.5 times per 36 totally changes his value. That is why his TS% is .534 while as you correctly point out his straight FG% is relatively low.
Projecting forward is recognizing what his TS% will look like if he can combine the ability to get to the line with improved shooting.
by upper left corner on May 19, 2010 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions
He definitely has shown a much better ability at earning FT's than Rudy
but alongside Roy Rudy seems more of a ‘fit’ than Bayless just with his outside shot
by collectiveshane on May 20, 2010 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Alternate take
but alongside Roy Rudy seems more of a ‘fit’ than Bayless just with his outside shot
The problem I have with this line of thinking is the defensive end of the floor. Neither Roy, nor Rudy, has the lateral quickness to hang with the new generation of uber-quick PGs on a full-time basis. In addition, I don’t think Rudy has the handle to bring the ball up-court against pressure, and I don’t think Roy wants to work that hard.
If Bayless can improve his recognition skills at both ends of the floor, and that is basically a matter of experience, and demonstrate that he can shoot the three well enough to keep defenders from cheating off of him, I think he is a better long range fit next to Roy. He showed reason for optimism by shooting 40% for the last couple of months of the season, whether or not he can shoot that well for a season is yet to be determined.
by upper left corner on May 20, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions
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