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Sched Ahead Update & Projections - 4/5

 

JSCOT PROJECTIONS:

1	Los Angeles	55-22	58.8
2	Utah		50-27	53.4
3	Dallas		50-27	53.2
4	Denver		50-27	53.2
5	Phoenix		50-27	52.5
6	Oklahoma City	48-28	51.3
7	San Antonio	47-29	50.4 (up from 8th)
8	Portland	47-30	50.0 (down from 7th)

San Antonio and the Thunder just keep winning games that the projections give them less than 50% at, putting the pressure on Portland to try and keep pace. We're still behind both of them in the loss column, so we're going to need help from someone the rest of the way. The game against OKC is now definately a must win if we want to catch them.  The next best hope for a 2nd loss for them is at Utah tomorrow. We'll need them to lose that even if we win out.  And if we drop one more somewhere, we'll need them to lose another on top of that.

As for the Spurs, we're probably looking for two more losses from them as well, which allows us to lose one more game the rest of the way and still beat them. At Phoenix on Wednesday, at Denver on Saturday, and at Dallas on the 14th are the likely candidates. But San Antonio has really caught fire.

REMAINING GAMES - WEST

 

DAL

UTA

PHO

DEN

OKC

SAS

POR

6-Apr

OKC

@UTA

@SAC

7-Apr

MEM

@HOU

SAS

@OKC

DEN

@PHO

@LAC

8-Apr

LAL

9-Apr

@POR

@NOH

@OKC

PHO

MEM

DAL

10-Apr

@SAC

SAS

@DEN

11-Apr

HOU

@GSW

@LAL

12-Apr

@LAC

MEM

@POR

MIN

OKC

13-Apr

@GSW

DEN

@PHO

14-Apr

SAS

PHO

@UTA

MEM

@DAL

GSW

 

TIE-BREAKERS

I'll wait a few more days to get into 3 and 4 way tiebreakers, but for now let's look at the 2-way ones:

DAL/UTA - If both, neither, or just Utah win their division, then Utah wins (season series 2-1). If only Dallas wins its division, then the Mavericks win.
DAL/PHO - Dallas wins (season series 2-1)
DAL/DEN - Dallas wins (season series 2-1)
UTA/PHO - If Utah wins NW OR wins final meeting, Utah wins; If Utah doesn't win NW AND loses final meeting, Phoenix will win by virtue of a better in-conference record
UTA/DEN - Denver wins (season series 3-1)
PHO/DEN - If Denver wins NW OR wins final meeting, Denver wins (W/L Pct. against Western playoff teams). If Phoenix wins final meeting AND Denver does NOT win NW, Phoenix wins.
PHO/OKC - Winner of final meeting will own tiebreakers (2-1 season series)
DEN/OKC - OKC must win every remaining divisional game to win tiebreaker (@UTA, DEN, @POR) A loss in any one of those games gives Denver the tiebreaker.
OKC/POR - Winner of final meeting will own tiebreaker (Portland by virture of 3-1 season series, OKC by virture of division record)
OKC/SAS - San Antonio wins (season series 3-1)
POR/SAS - Portland wins (season series 3-0)

One three-way tiebreaker worth noting is Portland/OKC/San Antonio. We have already won that tiebreaker regardless of what happens in our final game against the Thunder. San Antonio would finish second.

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