Greg Oden's Summer of Uncertainty
by Ben Golliver on Apr 5, 2010 1:46 AM PDT
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PrintA few weeks back, just before the toilet hit the fan for Tom Penn and Kevin Pritchard, CNNSI's Frank Hughes raised a great topic: What in the world are the Portland Trail Blazers going to do with Greg Oden this summer? It's a complicated question and one that only gets more complicated if Pritchard doesn't make it through the summer. (For the purposes of this column, we'll assume that he does.)
Contract-wise, Oden will find himself in the same position as Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge last summer. He will be set to enter the 4th year of his rookie contract which will pay him roughly $6.8 million dollars. His agent and the Blazers will be able to negotiate a long-term extension, similar to the ones given to Roy and Aldridge, that would kick in after next season. If the two sides are not able to come to an agreement, Oden would become a restricted free agent at the end of the 2010-2011 season.
With Roy, the organization's face and franchise player, getting to restricted free agency was never a serious possibility. When push came to shove the Blazers had to pay him. And they did.
With Aldridge, whose negotiations dragged out longer and whose future is bright but not franchise-worthy, some observers believed restricted free agency was a preferable route. "Make Aldridge earn his pay day," the thinking went. While his game hasn't developed to the degree that everyone might have hoped, Aldridge's stability and production (he's averaged at least 17 and 7 over 75 games for the third consecutive season) have only increased his market rate. The added value in having Aldridge locked in, happy, comfortable and at a solid value makes the decision to extend him last fall the correct one.
In both of those negotiations, players, management and owner could reasonably agree on most, if not all, of the critical questions. How important is this player to the franchise on the court? How reliable is he off the court and in the community? How do his statistics through three seasons stack up against others around the league? Has his manner of play demonstrated potential for future earnings that exceed his raw statistical output to date?
Agreeing in principle on these issues makes for a significantly easier negotiation process. In Oden's case, virtually all of these questions lack definitive answers. That could make for -- to co-opt a phrase -- uncalm waters.
Coming to the Table
Let's do a little Mr. Rogers make-believe and step into the shoes of player, management and owner to see how they might value Oden as the sides approach the negotiating table this summer.
If I'm Oden's agent, my argument goes something like this...
At 22, Greg is the most dominating young big man prospect in the NBA, college or Europe. No matter how his coach has used him -- starting or off the bench -- Greg has impacted games on both ends of the floor. He has demonstrated a champion's work ethic, devoting hundreds of hours to improving his game and hundreds more to improving his body. He demonstrated significant year over year improvement in the areas -- rebounding and defense -- that the coaching staff had laid out for him. In a number of key metrics for big men -- field goal percentage, rebound rate, blocks -- he has been at or near the top of the league's leaderboards.
As a consummate teammate and incredibly popular member of the Portland community, Greg's skills and personality perfectly complement Brandon Roy's, perhaps even better than Aldridge's do. The team has set a precedent by signing Roy and Aldridge to long-term deals and has mentioned Greg alongside those players in its marketing campaigns and in public statements about the team's future. Greg desires a 5 year guaranteed contract similar in size to Aldridge's. We would be willing to meet in the middle by sacrificing some of the base price for big time incentives for playing time, team wins, all star appearances and the like.
If I'm Kevin Pritchard, I see things slightly differently...
Greg has all the potential in the world and he's done everything he's been asked to by this organization. Greg was drafted to be the big man of our future and the backbone of a title team. Greg could still play 10+ years in the league so our long term plans for him haven't changed. With that said, his play, while promising and sensational at times, simply doesn't stack up to Aldridge's or Roy's because he hasn't been healthy often enough to truly impact a season with his presence. His various injuries are unrelated (a positive) but keep occurring (a negative we have to take into account when putting a price on his salary).
Nevertheless, we could scour the entire globe and not find another basketball player with his specific skillset and raw abilities. Our other options at center -- even if we retain Marcus Camby -- are past their prime and, to make matters worse, Joel Przybilla is out indefinitely with an injury. Even if Oden is as injury-prone as his harshest critics suggest, our only alternative at this point (barring a trade) is Jeff Pendergraph. That goes for now and into the future (after Camby retires). My goal is a medium-length deal at a solid price -- with increased flexibility in the form of a team option on the deal's final year -- a deal that gives Greg security and happiness, adds a significant measure of stability to the roster and keeps the so-called championship building blocks in place.
If I'm Paul Allen, I'm tempted to think along these lines...
Greg has been paid roughly $15 million dollars over three seasons and has appeared in less than 1/3 of the games his team has played. Greg was arguably the 10th best value on the roster this season: Marcus Camby, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Andre Miller, Juwan Howard, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum all produced more consistently, and in many cases much more affordably. I'm set to pay Greg another $6.8 million for next season which is already more than he has earned based on his on-court play to date. What possible reason exists for rushing to lock this guy up long term now?
Food For Thought
A month or so ago, KP2 sent me his SCHOENE projections for the Blazers. The results might intrigue you...
This chart shows each player accompanied by his WARP over the next three seasons and a total on the far right column. You'll see the usual suspects -- Roy, Aldridge and Batum -- faring very well. But you'll also notice that SCHOENE projects Oden to be the single most valuable contributor --relative to the average player at his position -- when it comes to producing wins over the next 3 years. And it's really not that close.
KP2 provides this note of explanation...
SCHOENE compares Oden to superstar centers. His projection is essentially the same as Chris Bosh's. The caveat is there is no indicator for durability or injury in the SCHOENE system, meaning these players have uniformly been on the court more frequently than Oden. Also, his gaudy stats this year were compiled in a relatively small sample of games and are not toally reliable.
I present these numbers not because I think Oden will be the single most valuable Blazer over the next three years. Instead because they perfectly encapsulate the tension inherent in these negotiations outlined above, the divide that exists when you attempt to quantify potential.
Oden's per-minute contributions are superstar-ish; his agent knows Oden's skillset and the stats it produces carry a mammoth price tag regardless of injuries. A stats-savvy management team realizes what a special talent Oden is and would surely prefer to have that 34.7 WARP over the next three years in Portland rather than somewhere else. But, as KP2 readily admits, WARP cannot account for injuries; Indeed, in this case, only Paul Allen can.
Finding a Resolution
If I'm Greg Oden I want 5 years and $45-50 million fully guaranteed at the very least. If I'm Kevin Pritchard, I wouldn't be able to justify an offer greater than 4 years for $36-40 million dollars with a team option on the fourth year. Significantly more money than Martell Webster, more money than Joel Przybilla, less money than LaMarcus Aldridge, solid flexibility to hedge against injury as much as possible. You might be able to find a happy middle ground between those two sides this summer. But would Paul Allen even consider the compromise that resulted?
If the organization's family first culture is giving way to a corporate, results-oriented, year-end evaluation climate, that doesn't bode well for Oden or the imaginary offer I've just presented. One can reasonably picture Allen responding, "$38 million? Riiiiiiiiiight. If Greg makes it through next season and helps lead us deep in the playoffs, I'm happy to pay him that and maybe more. I'll even throw in a top of the line Windows Mobile camera phone. But he needs to earn it. And if next year doesn't go as planned, I'll be able to sign him much more cheaply if I want to or be free of any long-term obligation if I don't want to. Who cares if he is happy from now until then? He'll get over it."
In this case, a hard line might not be the worst approach for ownership. Ironically, the organization is set up fairly well to take such an approach, thanks to how thoroughly it has supported Oden over the last three years, a very difficult chapter of his life.
The coaching staff and management have both repeatedly expressed their appreciation for him as a player and as a person. They've given him space when his mood asked for it. They've provided one-on-one training over the summer. They've stood by him during the injuries as forcefully as any person could possible hope from his employers. They've tried to shield him from overbearing expectations while still letting him know they expect huge things from him because they have significant faith in his abilities.
One would hope that three years of that support and those relationships would count for a lot come negotiation time. And one would also hope that that support and those relationships might help cushion the blow if the organization does decide to let him play through next season without an extension.
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
PS (Update 8:40AM) Coup over at Rip City Project reminds me this morning he raised the issue of Oden's price back in February. At the time, he reached a different conclusion: Oden's injuries offer the potential for a discount and the Blazers "absolutely must, and will" sign Oden to a long-term extension this fall.
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Hollinger’s system does take minutes into account. Thus, Oden currently clocks in at #129 this season. Just one above Nicolas Batum. But still above players with far more games. Like, say, Hedo Turkoglu. Roy is 16th, LaMarcus 38th, Miller 42nd.
This is about the BLAZERS, not GO
Since so many suggest that his injuries are unrelated, there is no reason why everyone wouldn’t be best served by waiting out his contract for one more year. If he comes out big time, plays 100 or so games next year, and gets us anywhere near the promised land, he’ll have earned his huge extension. If not, maybe those injuries aren’t so unrelated, after all. Since history is the greatest indicator of future performance, this is an excellent conundrum: great prospect vs. injury prone player.
by damonrayhymer on Apr 5, 2010 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
but if he does not have any more injuries
what a cheap price for an all star center
the catch 22
do I pay a price just under LMAs contract to lock up a guy that could be far huger than LMA will ever be in terms of impact, star power or do I let myself risk a huge bidding war, being forced into matching an overly inflated price just to keep this potential start on baord…
Tough question…
All that being said, Greg has generated a lot of revenue for this tema even with his injuries. the sellouts began with his drafting and season ticket sails are still high compared tot he rest of the league. Some of that has been improved play and imgae, a good chunck of it has been Oden’s mere presence. (nobody wants to miss the next legend being born so to speak).
I know my interest in full season tickets would be diminished if that possibility weren’t at lest looming out there. It was the clincher for me with the price increase (don’t want to miss the spectacle of a dominating Oden).
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
I disagree.
This isn’t bargain shopping. The kid either has the body to withstand the punishment this league deals out, or he doesn’t. If the team ends up unimpressed w/ GO’s production/development, they can always work a sign and trade, or work the asset in whatever way management sees fit.
I would be terribly disappointed if he wasn’t maxed out based on a his rim terror tour from LA to Boston, and everywhere else, but you’ve got to be prudent.
Four years seems long enough to figure the be patient,
And finally, winning will keep the Garden full. It’s not like the Blazers have any major league competition.
by damonrayhymer on Apr 5, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions
no doubt winning will keep the Grden full
however, Greg’s signing filled it up.
I doubt he gets a max contract.
So you are arguing to not sign him over the summer, right?
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
which...
was sadly close to what I had predicted…
sigh***
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
Why the huge spike in 2010-2011 on Oden's numbers?
That’s a massively high projection with a 2+ game fall projected the next two years.
Western Conference Champions
I don't think Oden and his agent have much leverage in this situation.
1. Management can wait for the new CBA due out after next season when Greg would be a RFA. He can be locked up for a significantly cheaper amount with the expected cuts to player contracts. Plus, a team making a push for Oden with a big RFA contract will have less to work with. It’ll be a lot less painful to match a big contract under the new CBA, perhaps even less painful than a contract extension this summer.
2. Oden isn’t bargaining from a position of strength due to injuries and the upcoming CBA renewal. It’s safe to say that Oden has significantly more value in Portland than any other NBA city.
3. It could be smart for Oden to lock in a contract now and under this CBA even if it’s less than he wants because the new CBA could limit his bottom line even more. If he’s worried about getting injured again then it behooves him to sign something now while the organization and fans still have high hopes for him. If he turns down a middle of the road offer and gets hurt again then he’ll have even less negotiating power next year.
I think it’s smart for both Oden and Blazer management to sign Greg to a short, relatively cheap deal in the range of 3-4 years (team option in the final year) 25-30 million plus incentives for games played (74+ games). If Greg stays healthy then the contract is over soon and he can negotiate something bigger. If he doesn’t then the team isn’t being hampered by a big contract.
"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
"Game 75 Recap: Blazers 118, Knicks DNP"
-Dave
Just a quick thought on your 1st point
With the CBA expiring, we don’t know what will happen. The Blazers could find them selves in a position of being unable to match even a small contract offer for Greg. If the new CBA created a hard salary cap, instead of the soft cap that is now in place, it would mean the team had to get under it no matter what, just like teams in the NFL. If that cap level is at or below what the team has now, they would be unable to resign Greg, however what if the new CBA created this hard cap, but gave teams a 1 time exception for players currently under contract? Basically I am saying that if a team currently has a player under contract and that contract makes the team go over the new hard cap, it would be allowed, but only the one time. If something like this would happen, then the team would be better off to sign Greg now, thus allowing his contract to fall under such an exception, if they waited, they might just lose him for nothing at all, even if he only gets a small deal from another team.
I point out this possiblity only to show that we have no idea what will come of the new CBA, it could be good for the team or bad for it, waiting is almost never a good idea.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
I think this is unlikely
The Blazers could find them selves in a position of being unable to match even a small contract offer for Greg. If the new CBA created a hard salary cap, instead of the soft cap that is now in place, it would mean the team had to get under it no matter what, just like teams in the NFL.
From everything I have heard, a hard cap will mean big time limitations on guaranteed contracts, which will allow teams to resign their own free agents by getting out from under existing salary obligations. How the implementation would work is obviously up in the air, but I don’t think the Blazers would be put in the position where they couldn’t match a reasonably sized offer.
This is particularly the case given that Joel and Andre’s contracts will come off the books next year—we will basically have Brandon, LaMarcus and a bunch of rookie deals depending on any trades we do.
unless existing contracts were written with a clause allowing the league to discard them in the event of a new CBA
existing contracts are not subject to unilateral (one sided) change….
that's right
that’s why I think a hard cap would have to be phased in over a period of 2-3 years, so that a sufficient number of the guaranteed contracts from the old deal would come off the books, allowing the teams to achieve enough flexibility to make the hard cap workable.
The phasing in of a hard cap would be tricky
but it is not impossible for it do be done just like I pointed out earlier. Let me try and explain it in a better way.
The new CBA could call for a hard cap for teams, lets say $50 million per team. Now obviously something would have to be done with exsisting contracts, because some teams have current payrolls way over that amount. One solution would be to “grandfather” all exsisting contracts, meaning the teams would be allowed to go over the cap by keeping those players on the team. However the teams wouldn’t be able to sign any new players, (with maybe an exception for mimimum salary players) because that would put them even farther over the new hard cap. Once the current players contract ran out, they would have to be resigned within the limits of the new CBA’s hard cap.
my point again, is that there is no way the Blazers should wait to sign Oden because of what “might” happen with the new CBA, it could be just as bad for that situation, as it could be good.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
I'm not in favor of a "hard cap"
just an opinion here, but it seems as if the league could avoid a hard cap by increasing reliance on incentive-laden contracts. It would work for Greg, it would work for anyone.
Plus, the league and players negotiate a percentage share of revenues. Right now, the owners feel like the players get too large a share. However, a hard cap doesn’t affect revenue distribution.
In reality – all a hard cap does is protect small market teams by preventing large market teams from outspending. If the owners are thinking hard cap to protect themselves from themselves, they are chasing the wrong pot of gold at the wrong end of the rainbow.
by blacknoiseNW on Apr 5, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I think a hard cap would have a direct impact on the percentage split between owners and players
That is how the league comes up with the cap now, it would just be a different calculation. The NBA could do a rather simple calculation, if the CBA mandated a split of 50/50 lets say, the revenue would be calculated, then divided by half and a cap number for each team would be the result. No one is allowed to go over that cap, after it is fullly implemented, so the percentage would be kept. Ofcourse it would become alot more complicated than that basic idea, but still it shows how they are related.
I too am not infavor of a hard cap, I would rather see the contracts include more incentives and also see teams have more flexibility on contracts for injuried players. I would like to see guarenteed contracts only last for a max of 4 years, with only team option years afterward.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
so I thought about this for a bit--I am undecided
You may be right that the CBA would severely limit our ability to resign Greg next summer if we don’t do it now. The problem is, taking this approach, signing Greg to a big contract now would make it impossible to resign any of other other quality players (assuming a hard cap). So Batum/Bayless/Rudy would go, and Przybilla would already be gone. That would leave our team with Oden, LaMarcus, Roy, 35 year old Dre Miller and possibly a 37 year old Marcus Camby if we re-sign him this summer to a 2 year deal. I understand that Oden represents by far the most important potential piece, but it is important to look at the situation as a whole, and the possibility to three near-max players surrounded by minimum salary backups and complementary players concerns me. From the CBA standpoint, I would rather know more information than less, which would point toward waiting.
It is a difficult decision though.
I can't imagine
The new CBA would leave teams unable to keep their current players, somehow. Especially on their first post-rookie contract.
Shoot, I’d HOPE not, at least…
Morty Pie
#52
well
not that you would be totally unable to, but we might be left in a situation where we can’t match offers from other teams. At some point, a hard cap MUST involve teams not always being able to pay their own players more than other teams.
So if we’re at the cap, and a team offers Batum 4/30, maybe we wouldn’t be able to match that… Isn’t that how it is in the NFL?
The NFL also has non-guaranteed contracts and "franchise" tags
the NBA’s entire cap/salary structure is set up to allow teams to keep their franchise players and develop ties between players and the community. I have a hard time seeing them completely erase that from the next CBA. Remember, they’ve changed the cap rules twice in the past 20 years to expressly prevent teams from poaching another player for financial reasons (Bird rights, Arenas rule) by allowing teams to match offers, so it seems that, however, the cap is structured, they’ll do their best to restrict player mobility of guys that teams expressly want to keep.
#52
yeah this is a good point
I could see the new CBA involving a ratcheting down on the max salary along with shortening the possible guarantee years, and maybe doubling the luxury tax or something.
That would keep teams from spending so much, although it has the potential to just exacerbate the inequality.
I would say I think it’s a bad idea to use a decrease in the max contract as a way to control salaries. As it is, teams with top-5 players benefit hugely because they get a giant bargain with the max (CP3, D12, LBJ and DWade all produce at rates worth more than the max). Decreasing the max would only make this worse.
Obviously this is all rank speculation, and we have no idea how they will control stuff.
Agreed. It is likely the middle class that is squeezed.
I also have hard time imagining the new CBA would make it impossible to re-sign Greg. More likely, the superstars would likely get dinged a bit, while it’s the guys that makes $4-8 million per year that would likely see their salary be squeezed. Owners don’t have problem paying for superstars, since they realize that those guys have value above what they are paying already because of their drawing power.
I’d wait until the new CBA before re-signing Greg. I cannot imagine a scenario where owners would be willing to lose their own free agents due to a hard cap. I am not saying there will be no hard cap, but will likely be a provision to re-sign their own guys or would at least get some value out of them.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
who needs to get squeezed
are the “not-quite superstars.” Iguodala and Joe Johnson get paid basically the same as LeBron, but aren’t nearly as good. Whatever the new structure is needs to take into account this huge problem, which is basically preventing teams that get into superstar contracts with not-quite superstars from competing for titles.
I don't think I mind that as much
If a team makes a mistake and pays Iggy like Lebron, then they should prolly pay for it.
If we paid LMA too much at 12 million a year, we should pay for it as well. I don’t know if a rule should be in place (I dunno what sort of rule it’d be) that’d make it harder for teams to overpay their own guys, because I think that’s part of good management.
Morty
#52
I think maybe I articulated that clumsily
I don’t feel bad for the 76ers offering Iggy too big a contract, or us potentially overpaying LA or whatever. The problem is that by placing an arbitrary limit on how much you can pay a single player, you give the four or five teams who luck into a single player who is worth more than the max a huge advantage in building toward a title. Currently, that’s the Cavs, Magic, Hornets and Heat (although the Lakers have managed to overcome this by spending over 100 mil on salary).
I think that is one reason why some people would like to see the draft go away.
It doesn’t make sense to me either that a team should get rewarded for being bad/getting lucky, rather than good management. Major sports leagues are monopolies, which irks me since we are supposed to be a capitalist market. Why not let the rookies become free agents as well? In that case, shrewd cap and talent management wins out over the luck factor? If we have a hard cap to go along with it, it’s not like the big market teams will have an overwhelming advantage, either.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
I think the draft is how a team like the Cavs can get someone like Lebron
If Lebron is a FA right out of the gate, the rich will just get richer.
Yeah, it might not be capitalistic, but I don’t mind our sports leagues being a little more “fair”.
The best locations and most money will win out over the Clevelands and Portlands.
—M
#52
I actually think the rookie scale is important
NBA prospects are very difficult to evaluate before they’ve played a single minute. But even though no one knows how they are going to turn out, the public pressure on franchises to ink them to deals is prohibitive (we know this by watching the NFL experience). Because teams’ public image depends on them signing quality prospects, they end up taking stupid risks on uncertain commodities and screwing themselves over. Sure, you can say it’s the teams’ responsibility to be responsible, but when the irresponsibility has a such a systemic source, I think it’s appropriate for the league to regulate.
It's a matter of how much they should pay
The best players in the NBA are always going to get paid, but what we’ve seen is that GMs are clearly unable to police themselves as far as paying second-tier talent. Contracts like Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, Raef, Theo Ratliff, JO, and Starbury just tend to hang around the league for way too long right now, and franchises as a whole are simply unable to carry these contracts for so long and remain financially viable.
In an ideal world, we wouldn’t need this kind of structure, but since NBA front offices can’t even be trusted to make financial decisions that won’t lose them copious amounts of money, it apparently has to be set up to minimize the damage they do to themselves.
So yeah, Philly should be punished to some extent for giving Brand and Iggy ridiculous deals, but resigning them to mediocrity and financial losses for half a decade based on 2 bad deals is a little severe to me.
#52
Difficult decisions are ahead for sure
However I am certin that the decision to keep Camby or Batum would be met with keeping Batum. Also, by the time the new CBA took effect Miller would be on the last, team option year, of his contract. So the team could decide to let him go as well.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
interesting point
I still think Oden ends up with less bargaining power, though, which is my main point. I don’t see “if a hard cap is created and a team makes an unmatchable offer” being a particularly effective bargaining position.
I think the relative strengths of management and the uncertainty of both the CBA and Greg himself will make it hard for Oden to negotiate a big contract.
"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
"Game 75 Recap: Blazers 118, Knicks DNP"
-Dave
Give the big fella the 5 year stability
at a reduced rate. You get a rate discount the longer you go. I don’t think anyone would argue that GO will be in the NBA in 5 years. The issue really is whether or not you have a healthy Greg Oden for the playoffs. For the years you do he’ll be worth close to the max, for the years you don’t… well.
I’d predict Greg to be healthy for 3.5 of those 5 playoffs. He’s worth 60-70% of the max for those 5 years. Since you’re actually giving him the 5 years you get the discount for that players stability, so maybe take another 10-20% off that. That ends up averaging out to 55% of the max. The average max value for those 5 years would be 16.3 X 55% = 8.9.
5 years 44.5 Million. Seems like a bargain for a franchise center to me.
This would be a good deal
5 years 44.5 Million. Seems like a bargain for a franchise center to me.
While the injuries have been frustrating, there is still a ton of potential for GO to do great things. Hopefully something rational like this results, although the front office dram has me more worried than I was a month ago.
Free AK1984.
"The two women were of a certain age and were clearly drunk... The only thing that I can get out of this is Why, since all these things happen to me, they couldn’t be two young girls and pretty? :-)" - Rudy Fernandez
if we pay him that money before next season
I will cry. Dont pay him squat until he gets through a season.
I dont care what kind of metrics and pie in the sky people throw out there, the simple truth is that he cant stay on the court. and until he proves that he can for a season, dont blow the cap on him.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
I'm approaching it a bit differently from a cap perspective
Between Roy, LMA, and the impending Nic signing, our cap is already blown. The roster flexibility/turnover will come from(1) sign and trades, (2) straight up trades, (3) the draft, (4) the MLE – if it survives this new CBA round, and (5) going over the cap to sign our own players. If Greg can’t stay healthy, we’re already screwed, barring Joel Freeland morphing into an NBA center. The risk with Oden, imo, is negligible at this point, especially compared to his upside.
Free AK1984.
"The two women were of a certain age and were clearly drunk... The only thing that I can get out of this is Why, since all these things happen to me, they couldn’t be two young girls and pretty? :-)" - Rudy Fernandez
by blazeraddict on Apr 5, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I was reminded as I read in the Buck Williams article in the Oregonian this morning
that Sam Bowie was one of the players we traded to get Buck. My point in bringing it up, is even though Bowie is ostensibly considered the worst-case scenario, Bowie still had a reasonably decent NBA career after all his major injuries. Bowie averaged 15pts and 8 rebs in 91-92, his third season with the Nets. He had a 10 year NBA career.
But, like Oden with Durant, nobody really remembers that Bowie had an entirely serviceable NBA career, only that we could have had Jordan.
by superfly05 on Apr 5, 2010 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Bowie was fine
But Oden has been better than Bowie, with less worrisome injuries, and Durant fo’ sho’ ain’t Jordan. It’s a lazy comparison the media makes.
M—
#52
Meant to add
If Oden is healthy, he’ll be much more than “serviceable”, like Bowie was. Much more of a force.
Not meant as an argument against what you wrote, just a comment!
—M
#52
totally agree
and it was kind of my point in making that post, that even a guy considered the biggest broken-down bust in franchise history still went out and got 15 and 8 and played in the league for a decade. Oden’s play while healthy and the nature of his injuries is a much brighter future than Bowie’s, barring a catastrophic career-ender.
Bowie's injuries were more devastating
Sam kept breaking his tibias, first one leg, then the other. After the third time fans really had to wonder if Bowie’s legs would ever be strong enough to survive the NBA pounding
kind of like the high arches in Walton’s feet
With Oden it’s different. Yeah, he had m/f surgery on one knee and patella trouble with the other. But other than Greg’s “one leg shorter than the other” issue, I don’t get the feeling that he’s structurally weak, like Sam’s legs and Bill’s feet were. And as bad as the darkest days of the Bowie era were, Sam’s body did finally mature and he played a lot of NBA games in his late 20s and early 30s. To me, that’s why you can’t give up on Oden. Greg will grow into his body and be a monster, and the rest of the league will learn to anticipate (and fear) the nights when Portland comes to town
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
one of these things is not like the others
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I was thinking 5 years 50 million. It's just enough to not be insulting, and not too much that it ruins
us if he is always hurt. If he plays most of those 5 years it’s a great deal, if not, he didn’t get horrible overpaid.
I think we can go lower though, and get a team option for the last year because of his injuries though. He needs to show some loyalty and understand he would be interfearing with this teams fate if he stuck us with too big a contract and didn’t deliver.
5 yrs and 50 would cripple us if he doesnt work out
No way in heck he deserves that kind of money. dont pay him anything over what David West makes.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
The actual dollars aren't the important thing here.
Cap money is the only thing that really matters.
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
Perhaps
Every year, the insurance provider can exclude 14 NBA contracts that they consider ‘risky’ to cover. Now, once the provider agrees to begin covering a contract, it can no longer exclude that contract in the future. But in Oden’s case, I would not be surprised if the provider decides to exclude his extension contract once it kicks in – at least for a year or two – to protect themselves.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Why on earth
would you sign Oden when there is so little certainty over what he can provide going forward? The only incentive ownership has is to buy low and hopefully get a few years at way below market rate. But the risk of ruin is so great with that strategy, and there’s so little downside to letting him hit rfa status, even ignoring the impending changes to the CBA. It’d be a huge mistake to extend him this summer.
Btw, is the consensus around here really that you guys got good value on the lma extension? I thought you way way overpaid…
I thought they did overpay. But first of all, they got him for a long time instead of just for 3 years. And second, the bigger problem is that this summer a number of teams are sitting around with cap space close to the max. Some of those teams will miss out on the big 3 or 4 targets of the summer. And then they’ll start throwing around that money at the next tier of players (very few will have the guts and patience to tell their fans that – surprise – the new plan is to wait for 2011 and beyond). And in that next tier: LaMarcus Aldridge. Then he would also get his contract, and the Blazers might have created bad blood in the process.
No kidding
If teams are looking at offering Rudy Gay close to the max, can you honestly say LMA would be left out in the cold?
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Apr 5, 2010 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
agreed. no way. especially in this economic climate.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
I'll believe a team offers Rudy Gay the max when I see it
Every year we hear stories about how an RFA is going to be a hot commodity and a team is going to have to match a large offer to keep him, and yet, these offer sheets almost never materialize because teams know they have to overpay to prevent the RFA’s team from matching and because it ties up their cap space for 15 days while the other team gets to decide whether to match.
Last year David Lee and Nate Robinson were supposed to attract some kind of attention as RFA’s considering NY’s need to protect their 2010 cap space, and neither one got much of a sniff in FA. Josh Childress and Ben Gordon similarly got skunked with RFA offers, resulting in Childress signing in Greece and BG signing the QO. This isn’t 2002-2005 any more. People need to re-adjust their expectations about the caliber of player that “deserves” the max.
#52
In ThinWhiteDuke's defense
He DID say ‘close’ to the max, not that he’d get the actual max…
I could see some dumb team giving Gay 9 million or so. Not the max, but certainly enough to shoot yourself in the foot.
—M
#52
$9 million is pretty far off the max
I’d classify LA’s deal as “close to the max” which average $13 million a year. Even a Bargs-like deal of $50 million over 5 is still pretty far from whatever the max will be, even with the falling cap.
Really, this happens every year, though. Reports will come out about how some pending RFA has a ton of suitors, and then none of them materialize. I could be wrong, but I can’t remember the last offer to a guy where a team could match that was even as big as ours to Millsap, which was a long way away from the max. The only offer I remember period was Elton Brand singing with the Clippers and the Bulls not matching.
Maybe I’m missing some offer sheet, but it seems like this gets played out every year, and the landscape gets more and more barren for RFA’s. Maybe having more teams with cap space will change that, but I’d think that any boost there will be offsent by the CBA uncertainty and the fact that teams are hemorrhaging cash right now.
#52
Josh Smith had a big deal offered by the Grizzlies, I believe
While he was a RFA. The Hawks matched, and he has remained a Hawk.
I do agree with you— mediocre players get touted as cap and free agency trouble makers. The one difference I see this year, for 2010, is that SO MANY teams are in the free agency race, and so many of them will come out disappointed. They MIGHT end up overpaying for the consolation prizes if, like, Rudy Gay. Though I think one would be better off getting no one, over a guy who only scores inefficiently, doesn’t pass, and plays no defense.
M—
#52
Touche
Although, I think Josh Smith is one of the few guys to sign a decent-sized contract recently who ended up fairly paid. Certainly his upside at the time would have been considered similar to LA’s, considering he’s one of the best defenders in the league, and he still received a smaller deal than we gave LaMarcus on the open market.
#52
Josh Smith's headcase status
And the potential for it to get worse, worked against him. He had a down year the year immediately after signing that contract (last season), where I drafted him too high in FBB and he wasn’t worth it, like a fat jerk.
He’s been awesome this year, though.
I should add I am pretty much agreeing with you. This sort of talk always happens. If teams are smart, Rudy Gay won’t be in their plans.
Morty
#52
Yeah, kind of a minor disagreement
but I think my main issue is with the idea that all of these teams with cap space are going to go buckwild throwing cash at RFA’s if they can’t get any of LBJ, Wade, or Bosh. Sure, if all 3 of those guys resign with their teams I could see NY, NJ, or maybe Miami throwing huge deals at the 2nd-tier guys like Boozer, Johnson and Amare, but there are plenty of solid UFA’s to go through before teams start to look at RFA’s and deal with uncertainty there.
Even beyond the Boozer, Johnson, Amare group you have David Lee, Jermaine O’Neal, Trout, Haywood, Harrington, Camby, Manu, and Mike Miller. Obviously those guys aren’t quite as “exciting” per se as signing Gay, but all of them are much more available without guaranteeing overpaying them. Given that a lot of the teams with cap space aren’t in the best shape financially (Sacto, Wizards, Wolves) or have shown an aversion to giving guys big deals (OKC, Clips), and really, none of those teams are going to panic because they didn’t sign Wade, Lebron, or Bosh.
it just strikes me as there being plenty to go around with UFAs for teams willing to spend rather than to try and swing for the fences with one of the few RFA’s (Gay, Scola, Tyrus)..
#52
LMA would've got what he got no matter what.
He was either going to be in Portland for that much or somewhere else for that much, and we would’ve got no compensation. It really wasn’t a choice.
Oh man, no way.
David Lee is a sieve on D. A broken sieve. With a giant hole in the middle. A hole the size of an NBA power forward. One of the ten worst defenders in the NBA.
It means he had a 27/13/7 game
Still really good!
I agree, his defense will hurt bad. Craig Smith was killing him in that game.
M—
#52
I won’t defend Lee’s defense thus far in his career, but I will say look at the teams he’s played for. He has the tools to be an adequate to above-average defender and we’ve seen with Ray Allen and Lewis what a change in scenery/team paradigm can do for one’s defensive performance. Lee is a better scorer, better passer, and much better rebounder than LMA. And it’s not like Aldridge is some defensive beast in the post himself.
Agree entirely
If Oden makes it through a season without worrisome injuries then he’s worth the max, and any RFA offer will be at the max. If he doesn’t then we know more about what to negotiate on.
if he makes it through a season he is worth the max???
what???
Not only does he need to “make it through a season” , but he better average like 16 & 12 with 2-3 blocks.
He cant give us 10 & 10 and expect to get a max deal. no way
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
I agree he shouldnt be maxed out
but saying he needs 16+ 12+ 2+ is nuts. Only one play has those stats this year(Dwight Howard) and only players not names dwight howard have done it since 05-06 is….
n one only howard has done it. not duncan, not yao, not shaq, not gasol, not… I can list every other player in the nba, because Howard is the only one in the last 5 years
#88
The smart move would be to not give
him an extention this summer but wait for the following season and let the market dictate how much we offer him. But $10 mill a year isn’t such a bad deal, so as long as his agent doesn’t ask for more than that, all should be fine.
Really?
He’s played about 1/3 of available games in three years. What if that pattern continues? Can you imagine the Blazers paying him $30 million for essentially one season worth of production?
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
How about
part of the contract include hiring the Phoenix Suns Training Staff to take care of Oden? Just remember how they brought life back to the Diesel.
Boom-shocka-locka!!!
Hill isn't doing too bad either. Great idea!
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
apples and oranges
Shaq was in his 30’s and dealing with chronic pain.
Greg is 22 and has had 3 unrelated injuries
Excellent analysis Mr Gulliver
No Evil Vulcans! Only the good, albeit emotionless, kind.
by Y5k on Apr 5, 2010 5:31 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Actually, I believe it's GOlliver
and no, I didn’t mean the GO as a reference to the topic, for anyone wondering
Blazers win!
"(Andre Miller) got a steal of a Brandon Rush pass in the backcourt and with a clear path to the hoop looked like he was actually going to dunk it with those 64-year-old legs. I believe that in true Darryl Dawkins fashion he was going to dub it the Miller-Time Pop-Top Rammin' Jammin' That's-For-TiH-and-his-Spammin' Thunderdawg Special. Unfortunately it got blocked. He did get to go to the line off the play at least. So he settled for calling the free throws "TiH Cheap Shots"." - Dave after a 102-79 beatdown of the Indiana Pacers
Oden's Stance will Predict His Future Injuries
Excellent article, Ben.
I think Oden’s state-of-mind about his injuries will show up in what sort of contract he’s seeking.
Let’s assume Oden is confident that these injuries are flukes and he’s ready to dominate the world. In that case, he should seek either no contract extension (and let next year’s play drive the market value up) or take a very short 1-2 year extension so that his price tag after two all-star appearances drives him to max under the new CBA.
On the other hand, let’s assume that Oden himself is uncertain about his injury status. Let’s say he really is worried that injuries will plague his career. In that case, he’ll take whatever money he can get over the longest possible term.
To me, that latter scenario should make Blazers very nervous. Particularly fans. If the organization sees “value” in signing Oden to many years at mediocre money, they might jump on it like they’d jump on an undervalued stock.
But in reality, that undervalued stock has no future. It’s like buying shares of a travel agency or stamp producer. We’d be signing up for endless promise with no return—and we had that with Travis Outlaw.
I see no benefit whatsoever in gambling on a long-term Oden. I like the idea of the hard-line approach and make Oden prove he can get through a majority of a season or two. Either way, I’m happier. If Oden is awesome, I’ll be happy knowing he’s getting paid what he’s worth and there’s no ill-feeling between the big 3. If Oden is injury prone, then I’m happy knowing that there’s no long-term commitment.
I do not, in any way, hope for a long-term deal out of the summer.
Buck Williams for the hall of fame
Totally agree
Oden’s worth one more shot, but he’s got to prove he can play a whole season first.
which is why this all much ado about nothing
that one more year Greg has will play the deciding role in resolving the question of what to do about Greg.
by blacknoiseNW on Apr 5, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Hopefully it will be heavily incentive and team option laden ...
This would protect both the team (from more injuries) and Oden (if he produces more than his contract).
"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez
This, to me, is the most likely scenario
If he does get an extension, it will probably be very heavy-laden with incentives.
A base salary low enough to not cripple the Blazers if he continues to have injury problems. A huge salary boost via incentives if he’s able to produce.
I could also see a situation where the final year was both a player option and fully unguaranteed if he was waived by a certain date. In this case, both sides would be ‘protected’ from what they would consider to be a raw deal in that final year. Either would have the option of voiding and going back to the bargaining table for futher re-negotiation.
How about 4 years, $35 million base salary with incentives of another $30 million? And the 4th year is, as I said above, both a player option and fully unguaranteed.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Reverse the numbers, sorry
$30 million base with $35 million in incentives.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
See my post below
This was just a rough guess of incentives/guaranteed money. A clearer option is the 4 year proposal for just over $60 million (I dropped it from $65 because of uncertainty regarding what the cap will be in 2011-12).
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
I probably should have said
a combination of incentives and unguaranteed money. That’s what I was thinking of when I posted, but hit the button before thinking it through completely….
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Let's see on Thursday if I carry the one and add the bisector of the square root of pi
Eh, low ball all the way.
Greg Oden gives you zero evidence he can stay healthy. Anything else is just wishful thinking.
The Leeroy Rule: being insistent >>>> being correct
Is KP2 willing to share who he compared all of the Blazers to?
A lot of these projections seem very counterintuitive to me. Particularly for our young guys, many of whom are projected to have a decline in production from 2010-11 to 2011-12. KP2 shows Batum, Bayless, Aldridge, Fernandez, and Oden all regressing from next year to the following year. What gives?
I would appreciate a more general discussion of the efficacy of these kinds of projections and a peek inside the black box. Count me as highly skeptical of the utility of these projections. It seems like a case of “garbage in, garbage out.”
To cite just one example, I know that Hollinger projected Bayless to have a PER of about 9 this season after having a PER of 8.2 last season. In fact, Bayless has been between 15.0 and 17.0 for most of the season, meaning he has had the largest jump of any player on the team. Nic and Oden made similar large scale improvements this season while Rudy has regressed. I guess my point is that these projections may be dressed up in a lot of statistical wizardry, but they seem to end up being based on very subjective comparisons.
Discussion, please.
by upper left corner on Apr 5, 2010 7:54 AM PDT reply actions
I wouldn't read anything into year-to-year fluctuations
These three-year projections are admittedly very much a work in progress, and in particular the year-to-year aspect is influenced by the fact that we only look at a group of 10 comparables. If one guy has a slump, or gets injured, that changes things quite a bit. At the aggregate level I think that’s acceptable, since these are real risks, but it makes the three-year total more meaningful than what the individual seasons might be.
I’m not sure what about the similarity process you would consider to be subjective. I think what you are describing is the limitations of projection, especially for someone like Bayless who played sparingly as a rookie.
Any system that ranks Pendergraph at 12.6 and Cunningham at 7.6 at the end of 3 years
has to be considered suspect, in my estimation
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't know that the comparable projections are out of order
but I do know that WARP just isn’t a very good stat.
The Vulcans love warp.
Oh wait love is an emotion, they have none. Never mind
Batumshakalaka!
by We-B-Dunkin on Apr 5, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know too little about the system. Maybe it takes efficiency more into account. Pendergraph had one of the top 20 TS% seasons of the decade in college, and it didn’t continue badly in the NBA. If I remember correctly, there was a chart where his efficiency far outweighed his usage and minutes, making him a complete outlier in a corner.
It may be a position thing.
Maybe it takes into account that Jeff has been used at the 5 and Dante is seen as more of a 4.
by Uncle Dave in NC on Apr 5, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Rudy
Needs to commit to the NBA and work on his strength this summer
by doomsdaymachine on Apr 5, 2010 5:36 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I post this on every Oden contract negotiation thread
Bynum: 4 years, 58 million (although if you take out the team option, it’s 3 years, 42 million)
Nene: 6 years, 60 million
Both signed when they were totally broken, and both before they had made substantial contributions in the NBA. Big men get paid in the NBA.
by atomiccafe on Apr 5, 2010 8:41 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
agreed
with Oden being 22 you have a take a flyer on him regardless. If I were KP I’d lock him up for as long as possible
If the team could get Oden for what Bynum
signed for it would be a great deal for the team.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
by usmcr3049 on Apr 5, 2010 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm thinking differently
If I was Oden and his agent, I might take a risk and either not sign this summer or sign a short, 1 – 2 year deal.
If Oden can stay healthy just one season and dominate, his value goes way, way up.
the vulcans supposedly had trouble giving out a five year deal for brandon
there is no way in hell they even consider that with greg.
If Paul Allen and the Vulcans dick around and piss off Greg amd his agents
They could destroy whatever hopes this franchise has of winning a championship for the next 10 years
Oden is not LMA. You just don’t get the opportunity to draft and deploy a center of Greg’s skill and stature very often in the NBA. Some franchises have been in business for 40 years and never had a dominant center in his prime. This is not fantasy league, it’s the real deal. Do you want to go all in, or not?
If not, then hold on to your chips (tell Oden that we’ll wait another year and let his contract expire) and take the risk that he’ll be in a good mood in the summer of 2011 and the CBA will be favorable. But if you don’t lock him up long-term and emotions go sideways (due to “disrespect”) you’ll be setting the organization up for an epic fail. A “drafting Bowie instead of Jordan” kind of disaster. Sure, you can have a nice little roster that features Roy/LMA/Batum and a team that will reach the playoffs every year, but is that all that you want if you’re the owner of the Blazers? If I know Paul Allen, he’ll want to go all in.
Now, the deal will have to have some provisos (incentives, team option like they gave to Brandon, etc) but if Greg stays healthy and productive the numbers need to add up to more than 10 mil/year. Anything less would (and should) be considered an insult for Oden and his reps.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
IF GREG STAYS HEALTHY ....
the million $ question.
If it were up to me, he wouldn’t get a maximum contract until he proves he can be the dominant center the Blazers have been waiting 3 years for already.
Nothing against Greg, but how much longer are we supposed to wait for the " savior of the franchise" to give us a full season ?? I guess I don’t see what puts Greg in a position to demand anything at this point.
How much to keep Camby ??, What is the expected time table for Pryz to play ? thats what I’m more interested in……
Til the wheels fall off.... Marcus Camby
Go Blazers !!
People rate the "giving a full season"
that matters about 0% to me. This team can make it to the playoffs without a single contribution whatsoever. What this team can’t do is when in the playoffs without him. For every year that Greg Oden is healthy and ready to go in the playoffs, that’s really the only thing that matters. Even if he only plays 10 or 15 games, if he’s good to go for the playoffs that’s a Win.
I personally don't know that they can't win in the playoffs without Greg,
the playoffs haven’t started yet this season. This is a different team than last season.
It’s not my pocket, but a max contract for 10- 15 games doesn’t seem like good business.
I wish I could be so confident that Greg would be healthy for the playoffs every season…..
Til the wheels fall off.... Marcus Camby
Go Blazers !!
the playoffs are everything
The Vulcans can project revenue for everything that’s regular-season related. You know there will be 41 home games and a few preseason games, every season.
But what no one can know (or guesstimate) ahead of time is how many home playoff games the team will be in from year to year. And it’s during the post season where franchises really rake in the dough, because instead of just the die-hard fans buying merchandise, everybody in the Portland-Vancouver area catches the fever and product sales go through the roof. If a team goes through a championship window for a few years (like the Blazers did in ’90-92 and again in ’99-00) it can mean a whole lot of income to help offset all of those lean years.
How does Oden’s upcoming contract extension factor into this potential boom cycle? Easy. With a healthy Greg the Blazers are a 60 win team (this is assuming good health for Roy/LMA/Miller/Batum, as well) and a cinch to advance past the 1st round of the playoffs and probably to the WCF.
Can you say “ca-ching”? You better believe that Paul Allen and the Vulcans can. So while it may not look appealing to “lock Greg up” based on all the regular-season games that he’s missed in the past, it’s not difficult to imagine how his salary could be “recouped” during a few frantic Mays and Junes in years to come. Band-wagon jumping fans will buy the sizzle, but no one gets excited about losing in the first round of the playoffs, year after year.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
the time to buy your #52 is now
good deals on end-of-season merchandise
you should see all of the bootleg T-shirt stands that pop up during the playoffs, everybody wants a piece of the action
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Oden
I think we have to sign him. Its a huge risk, obviously, but its the only play that, if it works out, would lead to a possible championship.
get creative with the contract - a decent base and the rest incentive-laden
I’d give him a competitive base – somewhere in the neighborhood of $7-9 million/year, and the rest be incentive-based.
If he plays in at least 50 games, small bonus…60 games, another bonus, 70, another bonus, etc. , while also possibly putting in incentives for other measureables like rebounding, blocked shots, etc.
Then, if he stays on the floor and plays well, he gets paid like one of the best big man in the league at $12-14M a year. If he gets hurt again or doesn’t get back to the same form, he still gets a decent payday but we’re not breaking the bank or over-extending ourselves too much to have him.
by rip_city_swagger on Apr 5, 2010 9:36 AM PDT reply actions
If he plays in at least 50 games, small bonus…60 games, another bonus, 70, another bonus, etc. , while also possibly putting in incentives for other measureables like rebounding, blocked shots, etc.
I’d also like to see a clause in Greg’s deal for “home playoff games played in” because this is the added value that would really help balance the potential costs for Allen and the Vulcans
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I am not sure this type of contract is allowed under the current CBA
I’ll have to refer to storyteller or maybe douglast, but I believe there are restrictions on how much “incentives bonuses” are in an NBA contract. There are incentives for sure, but your talking about as much as $5 million in incentives, I’m not sure that is possible.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
Fixing that limitation should be the focus of the new CBA
rather than a hard cap.
by blacknoiseNW on Apr 5, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree, If all contracts were to become incentive laden
that would benefit the owners and the productive players the most. Prevent over-paying in a lot of cases..
Depends on what the incentives are
‘Unlikely’ incentives can only represent 25% of the contract. But likely incentives can also be included.
Make the unlikely incentives tied to games played. Make the likely incentives linked to statistical numbers he’s already reached (rebounds per game and points per game, for example).
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
exceptionally fair for both sides
Balancing risk with reward, with the player taking on responsibility for his own performance…
Potential incentive complications:
1. Teams limiting playing time to avoid triggering incentives
1a. Teams luring players with promise of riches, then stashing players on the bench…
by blacknoiseNW on Apr 5, 2010 7:19 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Sign him, but
to a short-term deal with an option for more. He’s got to prove he can play a whole season (which I’m the first to hope he can) before he can expect any more. That’s just common sense, and he’s not going to get a better deal from any other decent team, at least not as a starter.
How Do Incentives go against the Cap?
If they don’t, then why aren’t all contracts laid out this way? I could easily be under 40 Million with an actual payout of 100 Million if Incentives didn’t count against the Cap.
I am asking because I don’t know…
Oden’s deal is more than kind of hard. Aren’t we paying Priz 7 Million? I think Oden is worth every bit of that
Unlikely incentives don't count against the cap
Likely incentives do count.
Whether an incentive is likely or unlikely is re-determined every off season.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Is it possible to have a team option on more then 1 year in a contract.
For instance 5 yr. deal with team option on the last 2.
Batumshakalaka!
5 year contract every year a team option
problem solved!
Ok, sorry, I’ve never seen/heard of multiple team option years. It doesn’t pass the smell test, but I don’t actually know either way.
"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
"Game 75 Recap: Blazers 118, Knicks DNP"
-Dave
No
But years can be unguaranteed, which serves the same purpose for what we’re describing here.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Interesting. Didn't know that.
Do you have any more info about who determines whether an incentive is likely/unlikely?
According to the CBA
if the incentive is at a level that it was reached the previous year, then it is considered likely to be reached again in each successive year of the contract.
However, either the league or the Player’s Union can also request that an ‘expert’ be used to mediate if they believe that the previous year’s performance is a fair predictor of whether or not the incentive is likely to be reached. In this case, the ruling of the ‘expert’ determines whether the incentive counts against the cap or not.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Priz
has played more time and better than Oden as of now.
Przy has never played huge minutes over a season
And his career started off with numerous injuries.
He was way below Oden this season, when Oden was playing. Oden was playing better and Joel had low energy, wasn’t playing with focus, and looked to be having a down year. Then, sadly, he went down with a bad injury— basically the version of Oden’s injury we all worried he had, but were relieved to find he didn’t.
Joel was better for our team last year, but not better for the future (Oden’s development was and is very important), and Oden was the actual better player this season.
Mortimer
#52
Even Though...
I was honking twice a few years ago, I do like Oden a whole lot. But it would be crazy to go long term with him.
Pay Camby to stay (crosses fingers), see if Oden can stay healthy next year and then evaluate the future. I like statistical analysis, but I like health even more. Why pay now on such a big risk?
I think this is a classic case of both sides wanting to wait a year. (Or should be.)
If a horn honks in an empty parking lot
did it make a sound?
by blacknoiseNW on Apr 5, 2010 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't sign Greg this Summer
Factoring in all the work he’s missed, there’s relatively zero body of work to go off of for valuating a long-term deal, IMO.
If he comes out and has a stellar season next year, I feel it’s he’s morally obligation to sign a fair contract with the Blazers the following summer – he owes it to the fans and ownership. If we walked then there you go – a bad chapter is finally closed.
I feel like I’ve been held hostage by this guy for 3 years now. Big fella needs to show us he worthy of playing for than 61 games a season – and do it at a high level.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
Rec
No harsh feelings for the big man, I just dont want to see us waste HUGE amount of cap space on nothing but potential and WARP statistics.
If we do sign him this summer, it better not be for anything more than $35 million (which I still wouldnt be comfortable with).
Yes he has a boatload of talent and raw potential, but this franchise shouldnt be held hostage to the dreams of what Oden ‘COULD’ become. If we dont re-sign him this summer and he blows out another knee, I think we would all feel much better knowing that we can spend the money elsewhere and re-start. Especially with how many teams are going broke, I have to think that we would be able to scoop up another high quality player if Oden doesnt work out.
Please dont gamble B Roy and LMA’s primes on a guy that cant stay healthy until he proves that he can.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
Risk
The gamble cuts both ways.
It’s easy to see that if we sign him this summer and he never gets healthy, then yes, we are screwed.
But let’s say we don’t sign him and he does stay healthy.Then you’re talking about needing to pay the guy the max. Let’s say that would be 5 years / $85 million. The question is, how much of a discount do you need to get this summer to sign him? Let’s say you could sign him this summer for 3 years / $30 million. Would you do that?
The question is, what’s the breakeven point where you are willing to risk signing an injured player, because the other risk is having to pay full price next summer.
Especially with how many teams are going broke, I have to think that we would be able to scoop up another high quality player if Oden doesnt work out.
The Blazers will not be under the cap again until Roy and LMA’s contracts expire. They will not be able to offer another team’s FA more than the MLE. So, the only way they could acquire another “high quality player” is via trade or the draft.
I understand your apprehension re: paying Greg near-max money and the possibility that he could keep getting reinjured. But what you don’t realize is what a rare commodity Oden is, and rare commodities will always be well-compensated. The only question is, will Portland pay Greg to play NBA ball for the next 5-10 years, or will another NBA team assume the risk, and potentially reap the rewards if he does remain healthy?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Apr 5, 2010 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Right
there is no restart button in this game. If Greg gets an offer in RFA that we are somehow unable to match, we have no real ability to add a high-quality big man. If that happens, we will have wasted Roy’s prime anyway. Our only way to do that would be to trade Greg for a lower upside/lower risk model (Brook?). Of course, you would be hard-pressed to get fair value in a trade/get a championship quality big man in return. So I think leaving our options open represents just as significant a risk as locking him down.
It has the potential to screw us either way
But only one way (keeping him) has the clear potential to MAKE ALL OF OUR WILDEST DREAMS COME TRUE.
M—
#52
right
From a basketball standpoint, I think offering him the cash is relatively low risk. There is no feasible alternative, and he is an essential component of the title picture. From a PA’s money standpoint, offering the cash is risky, while waiting/offering less is the safe strategy.
not true
who says we could go out and get more quality players a few years down the line or trade for a good player in the future?
Oden is not the only answer. If he fulfills his potential then yes he is an answer, but there are always other options out there
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
So, you count on the uncertainty of a mystery trade somewhere down the line
Over keeping the on-the-court-great play of a super young big man?
One is in our hands already, and we know he is good (yes, when healthy). The other can take YEARS to develop, if at all, and by is inherently an uncertainty.
M—
#52
Right, the question is really
what are the odds that we can dig up a solid big man somewhere down the line vs. the odds that Greg overcomes his injury problems.
Given the relative scarcity of big men, I think our best bet has to be with GO.
#52
Not what I was saying at all
Im just saying that Oden isnt the end-all and be-all. I dont think that the odds of finding another big man via trade or free-agency are any better or worse than Oden panning out. I just know that there are other options besides panicking and signing Oden to a big contract before he has even done anything.
If he plays well next year and is injury free, then sign him to a good contract. Just dont break the bank on him based on what everybody HOPES he can become, or what his per 34 1/2 minute averages are.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
isnt that why its a Restricted offer?
We can match or pay more if we really want him right?
I think thats less of a risk than paying him after another season lost to injury
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
he's not going to feel this way
If he comes out and has a stellar season next year, I feel it’s he’s morally obligation to sign a fair contract with the Blazers the following summer – he owes it to the fans and ownership. If we walked then there you go – a bad chapter is finally closed.
If we take the wait and see, why should he feel any obligation to the team that didn’t show faith in him and take care of him?
I think he doesn't get signed this summer
Normally, professional athletes are paid based upon past performance. The exceptions are rookies, who are paid based upon potential. In the NBA, that potential is measured by the slot in which the rookies are drafted.
In Greg Oden’s case, you have some past performance, but that all comes with a huge asterisk. Last season, he lasted most of the season, but was not in the correct physical condition, i.e., he bulked up in the off-season, which left him slow, and plodding. Add to that his inexperience, and you had a center who underachieved when compared to expectations.
For the first part of this season, you began to see what he could do. He remained inconsistent, as you might expect given that he really was just beginning his second season, but vastly improved over last season. Then he gets hurt again, so you really don’t have a large enough sample to assess what he really can do.
So from a negotiating perspective, GO is between a rookie and a veteran. I’d still like to pay him a lot based upon potential, but not that much based on past performance (taking into consideration that he has had 4 significant injuries (if you include the broken wrist in college) in the past 4 years.
If I’m GO, all other things being equal, I’m thinking I can make a lot more money if I can stay on the court all next season. So I might not want to sign a new contract.
If I’m KP and/or Paul Allen, I’m also reluctant to sign him, because I don’t want to commit $40-50 million dollars on a guy that might not be able to stay upright.
Great point
that Oden may not want to sign until he’s played a solid year. That would certainly speak to his self-confidence.
From a working man/fan’s perspective… I’m a big fan, but why sign Greg early just to keep him happy? Show the world you can play 60 some games, and we’ll pay you just fine. You get what you EARN. We hope you have a GREAT year!
You pick, then you roll. It ain't so hard. Let's try it out.
Personally, I'm a fan
of incentive laden contract’s for ALL players. As you say, CaptHustle, you get what you earn.
Not knowing all the details..
If you don’t risk losing him, leave him unsigned for one more year and evaluate.
If you risk losing him… I gamble. I gamble because I don’t see a championship happening without him. We need either another big time player to go with Roy, or we need GO/Roy/Aldridge. GO is big time enough if healthy with the talent Roy and Aldridge provide.
I want to wait a year to see if there are other fluke injuries. Another year out, I get rid of him. During the year I look at possible trades and keep an open mind. If I can find a healthy super star for Oden and Aldridge… i do consider it and possibly do it.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
Context
I see a lot of numbers getting thrown out there without reference to leaguewide standards:
Rookie min: 473k
Vet min: 1.4 mil
Oden’s salary next year: 6.8 mil
Mid-level exception: 5 yrs 33 mil (just less than 7 mil/yr) (Trevor Ariza, Ron Artest and Marcin Gortat make about this)
Greg’s QO (if we offer him this, he can test the market as an RFA): 8.8 mil
LaMarcus Aldridge contract: 5 yrs 65 mil (12.5 mil/yr) (incentives to 70 mil)
Max Contract: 5 years 82 mil (Brandon’s deal)
Even considering his injury history, a contract in the range of the MLE (which has been suggested in this thread), is almost disrespectful. His salary range is likely somewhere between just above his QO and slightly below LaMarcus’s deal. I think there will be some tradeoff between years and annual salary—maybe we could get him for three years at 12 million, but if we gave him 5, he would take 9.5/10. But there’s no way he takes something like 5 years 35 million.
from a laymans perspective
Lopez and Bynum are alot scarier future thought than oden.. What is there to be scared of.. Driving to the hoop.. Heck pull up and shoot the tear drop! Or go straight at him and create contact. I love greg but offense creates fear, not defense. And his game will always take a back seat to Roy and Aldridge, and how can you freeze out Batum and Miller. The impromtu 24 hour fitness pick up game during rehab and nude cell phone pics also come to mind, were talking about millions of dollars here to just play ball and keep your nose squeaky clean for the one track minds of us blazer fans. We want a championship, a few as a matter of fact!. They are working on his image for some reason. The GO explores portland looks so staged and phony. He dosent seem comfortable in the promo. Im sure everytime the durantula drops 30 and then does an aww shucks interview about the virtues of OKC KP and greg wanna spew, Just sayin.. Long story short. Greg is perfect for this team, but with our ghost from centers past Mr Oden needs swallow his pride and sign a modeate deal,or we need to let him see what his market value is and then match it
if it can be conceived it can be achieved
by lyfefindsaway on Apr 5, 2010 10:35 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Defense does intimidate
Russell, Walton, Olajowan, Mutombo, Ming, Thurmon,Parish. All great defenders that drove other teams crazy. Yes some of them were great scorers but none of them won scoring titles. You can get scoring production from ANY position but only big men can defend the paint.
O.R.
If you divide Oden age
by his jersey #. then add the number of games he has played, then look at the time on your watch, then take into account the weight of gravity on his head…..
Oden is the best player to ever play the game.
the stat is called AJGWA……awesome
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
So
Because when Oden played, he put up some of the best numbers in the league, it should be discounted, because…?
Big Men Get Paid. Happens since before I was born, and will continue to happen after I die. Bynum, Nene, hell, KWAME got signed to an expensive and long multi-year deal by the Lakers just a few short years ago. Some people are saying Oden should get less than what KWAME (Kwame BROWN) got, even though Oden provided more promise from one foul plagued 24 minute game, than Kwame did in 4 seasons.
Big Men Get Paid, because once you have a good big man, you hold onto him. If ya get one with the chance to DOMINATE, you definitely hold onto him. Now, obviously, the wrench in this whole thing is the damn injury concerns. Even if they are unrelated, they are upsetting.
But Oden was one of the best centers in the NBA this past season, during that stretch he played. Even in 24 minutes a game. If one goes by PER and whatnots, he was a top 2 or 3 center in the entire NBA. Statistically, just behind Dwight Howard and Duncan (he mighta’ passed Duncan, not sure). From a still super-raw, young big.
Yes, his foul rate is insane. Yes, he has managed to have season ending surgery twice in three years. But he clearly showed he can be an amazing center, when he was on the court. On offense, and defense.
Ya DON’T let that go, if you can help it.
It is a tough situation, but history suggests that Big Men Get Paid. It’s just how the world works.
Mortimer
#52
best numbers in the league??
11 pts and 9 rbs arent the best #’s in the league, or even close.
Greg was paying well. Leave it at that. But not well enough to pay him whatever he wants.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
When you're playing
<25 mpg on the slowest team in the league and scoring those points on 7 shots per game, those are top numbers.
#52
@ the time of his injury
Oden was first in FG%, second in Blocks, top ten in rebounding, and shooting 80% from the line. not to mention top ten in PER. So yeah he was among the league leaders.
O.R.
Yes he is good
but everything you guys are saying is “per 24 minutes a game”. Why isnt he playing more then? Fouls? Conditioning? Coach Nate?
Oden is very effecient, but the minutes and points are what they are.
And massive foul problems ARE A BIG PROBLEM. Stop dismissing them as something that doesnt effect the game or factor in to judgement of how good a player he is. If he cant stay on the court for more than 24 minutes, then why
bother “adjusting” his numbers per 24 mintues. Just go by what he contributes per game, and that is 11 pts and 9 rbs.
Look, I love me some Oden and think he can still turn it around. But the glorification of this guy based on what he has done is just not jsutified in my opinion. Injuries and fouls are real.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
Uh
Because He isa Baby in the NBA, the guy is only going to get better …a lot better.
O.R.
Of course the fouls are a problem
It doesn’t erase the fact that he was awesome when he was on the court.
Fouls, like shooting, are improved over time, with experience, by almost every player.
M—
#52
and for every two he drew on the other team, he missed 3 games
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
I know it seems like fuzzy "advanced stats"
But ya gotta adjust for pace and minutes played.
11 and 9, in half a game, is really really damn good. Plus leading the league in block percentage and near the top in rebounding percentage (ya gotta use percentage over the raw numbers to see what is really happening).
And remember— didn’t say THE best number in the league, but up there with the other top 3 centers. Very very damn good numbers, for 24 minutes a game.
His play on the court isn’t the problem, save for massive foul problems. The injury thing is the problem.
M—
#52
also
Bogut, Shaq, Yao, Camby, Prz. These big guys have careers plagued with injuries, but the fact is, when they are on the court their teams are better. So you pay them, and you hope for the best. You don’t worry about the injuries first, because the fact is short of a chronic/lingering injury, you really can’t predict what will happen in that regard, you can only base the contract off of what the player gives you when he’s able to play.
How the world works and how it should work are two different things
So Greg should get paid because Big Men Get Paid?
Does that mean we should all jump off a bridge if others do so?
bridge jumping is a rush
kind of like winning NBA championships?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That could be fine
I dunno all the details of the upcoming CBA stuff, so if they think the system will largely be in place (as in, we can match whatever anyone offers Oden, if he is a RFA), then I could see it going to that and it working out.
No matter what, whether Oden is locked up this offseason or playing for the next deal, he’ll be motivated to show he is good.
M—
#52
I'm not concerned about his motivation
I’m concerned about his bodies ability to perform without breaking. Every year it’s been something. At some point I stop saying “it’s completely unrelated injuries” and I say “something is going on that makes him the glass man… plan B time.”
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
I'd want to delay that decision if I could
Delay would be by not signing him.
Delay would be by signing him to something that’s cheaper and I have longer to evaluate.
Giving up would be a trade for talent that I think could put the blazers over the top (not happening, but you never know).
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
what's the alternative, though?
Big guys get hurt, rather frequently relative to smaller guys. Yes, there are exceptions but you can’t bank on that. You have to hope for the best and lock up talent when you have the opportunity. I’m fine with waiting the year, but I don’t see any reason why we’d let him go short of another team offering him a ridiculous deal, and even then we should consider it.
If you let go RFA
You give someone like Ainge a chance to sign him for 2 yrs with the old wink wink and even if we match he is gone to Boston 2yrs later.
IT all comes down to how much you want to win. If we sign him for 5 yrs and he plays the league average of about 65 games a year this team is gonna win big.
If we lose him to free agency then we have to find another center. They do not grow on trees. They don’t come cheap and most of them are limited in their effectiveness.
In my eyes you have someone who with time could make a dynasty here. To keep him you have to make him feel like this is the ONLY place for him. You don’t do that with lowball offers or letting go RFA and talk to the Celtics or Lakers etc.
O.R.
I just want a center who's out there balling for my team
and not doing video shoots around town to keep his public image relevant while he’s out injured much of the time he’s been here.
Reading this thread and the posts – I feel as if I may be a bit callus and asking too much. =(.
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
my take has nothing to do with being callous or sensitive
The contracts of Nene/Bynum show that an injured but potentially excellent big man is worth 4-6 years at 10-13 million/year. If he is healthy and effective next year, it goes up some. If not, it goes down some. But saying he’s worth 4 years 30 million isn’t callous, it’s just ignoring the market.
i think you're talking about proven commodites
My argument isn’t about what to pay him – it’s when to pay him. Pay him when we know what in the heck we have (then we can revisit this whole “what to pay him” topic). We’ll know exactly what we have by the end of next season – an injury-prone draft mistake or a pillar to an NBA championship.
If he kicks booty next year and decides to walk for more money – then that will pretty much sum up the entire Greg Oden experience. The Franchise and us fans have stuck by Greg for 3 years now while very little in return – who owes who here?
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
Even though I am a huge Greg Oden fan
I am totally fine if we let him go to RFA, provided we are sure that the rules for a RFA don’t change. If we can match what anyone offers, then we’ll be okay. Any wounds caused by it should be able to be healed.
If we sign him this year, we should just remember that big men get paid.
I’d be fine if we locked him up, but the injury concerns make RFA a viable option.
Morty
#52
well put and agree 100%
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
by Net Ranger on Apr 5, 2010 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Players play for a title and money and respect.
Take out one of those and the player will go somewhere else to get all three. Do you really want to see GO in Purple and Gold pinning up a title? How about celtic green? I prefer Black and Red.
O.R.
Don't even let him or his agent test the water
Oden will be a good player, he is not exceptionally weak or brittle (one could maybe argue he is more so than the average, but it wasn’t like he was playing easy or getting hurt every game.) We want to lock him up for the long haul and not even have him considering other places. As soon as he gets it in his mind he might be valued and wanted more somewhere else those nuggets of doubt will only grow as he talks or his agent gets offers (and as soon as they see the other offers they might start thinking bigger and bigger.) Sign him for as long as possible for as cheap as he will go (play to reassure him of our commitment in order to pay less). He likely feels insecure about his future and that is to our advantage. We are going to pay him anyways, lets do it while he might make it cheaper for us.
Lets not forget he sells tickets
and Merchandise. National type player. Limelight on Portland. Eventually We start getting the favoritism calls from the refs. Gotta sign Oden if you want to further this franchise.
O.R.
If anybody thinks we're going to get a "deal" for Greg Oden, they're dreaming.
Listed below is a virtual who’s who of overpaid, underperforming Centers.
Dan Gadzuric: $6,749,260
Steven Hunter: $3,696,000
Tony Battie: $6,292,000
Darko Milicic: $7,500,000
Eddy Curry: $10,500,423
Marcin Gortat: $5,854,000 (putting up 3.4 pts/4.1 rbs per game)
Shareef Abdur-Rahim: $6,600,000 (is he even playing? I think he’s an assistant coach? None the less, still getting paaaaid)
Nazr Mohammed: $6,466,600
Jerome James: $6,600,000 (this tub of goo has played in 4 games in the last 3 years, and hasn’t been on the court in 09/10)
Tim Thomas: $6,466,600
Kwame Brown: $4,100,000 (the poster boy for centers as #1 picks gone wrong… averaging 3.2 pts/3.6 rbs per game)
Andris Biedrins: $9,000,000 (The definition of a contract year kind of guy… this dude has fallen off a cliff since signing his contract)
Brian Cook: $3,500,000
Jared Jeffries: $6,466,600
Mark Madsen: $2,840,000
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
And that is Kwame's 3RD contract to boot.
Big Men Get Paid.
We “should” be able to get a deal, but a deal for a player of Oden’s potential is still 10 million a dang year. Expensive, but it’s how it goes.
Mortimer
#52
nitpicking
but Gortat is probably underpaid and just unlucky to be on one of the few teams with a better option at center. Gortat would start for more than half the teams in the league today.
I would argue that's a revisionist history, but thats just my opinion.
It’s tough to extrapolate exactly how good he really is, considering his career HIGHS are 3.8 points and 4.5 rebounds, and not to mention his advanced metrics are down significantly from last year (contract year). People tend to remember him make a few plays in last year’s playoffs and think, “wow, hey, this guy can ball!”… but really, he hasn’t done a whole lot to warrant saying he’s underpaid, especially after just signing a 5 year, 34 million dollar contract which will probably be paying him 8+ million in the final year of his deal. To say someone who gets 13 minutes a game and has a 5/34 deal is underpaid is a bold move, one I disagree with.
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
I do think Gortat is one who doesn't quite fit your above post, though
He intended to sign with Dallas and the break the bank Magic matched and took Bass as well. Those other guys have been resounding disappointments (maybe not Biedrins, who was hurt this year) while Gortat hasn’t even had a shot.
"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
"Game 75 Recap: Blazers 118, Knicks DNP"
-Dave
Like I said
They don’t grow on trees and they don’t come cheap. Any of those guys look like viable option for a championship run? Good post Arby
O.R.
how many of those centers signed after missing 2/3 of their first 3 years?
(or significant time to injury)
How many of those contracts were negotiated the year prior to a new CBA?
How many of those contracts were negotiated with the league struggling and salary cap figures going down?
"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
"Game 75 Recap: Blazers 118, Knicks DNP"
-Dave
A guy Oden's ability is just too rare to NOT take a chance on.
This franchise has waited since 1979 to get another dominant big. So now we should let him go or risk letting him go and wait ANOTHER 25-30 yrs? Oden is much more valuable and harder to replace than some might think.
O.R.
We are talking about the playoffs
For the next ten years.
O.R.
Whatever happened to the playoffs this year?
I never heard an official elimination of Greg’s speculation and desire to come back this season. Is that just to be assumed by the fact he’s not yet practicing and there’s only 5 games left? What if he came out of the locker room in one week for the OKC game? If even just to sit on the bench and let his presence put that much more horror into our first round opponents gameplanning against us.
by Chief Play Good Play Hard on Apr 5, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Last reports I read convinced me "no way" he be playin'
Just not time enough to get in any kind of playing shape.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
sad that our supposed "franchise center" is now just a buzz kill topic
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
I thought the subject of this post would probably wait until the offseason,
but it has been something I’ve thought about recently, so I’m glad Ben posted it now. Plus, there is a lot more data here for me to chew on than I would ever have been able to put together myself.
Thanks Ben!
by BlazerFanSince2001ish on Apr 5, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Oden continues to be a gamble
and management has to decide how they want to place their bet. If he stays healthy – jackpot, if not – bust.
It is striking that we have 3 years effectively gone, and we are still waiting for Greg to"get well". Track record, healthwise is pretty disasterous. This season he showed us glimpses of what we hope for, we are confident he is a star when healthy, but are the significant injuries over or not? Based on past performance (including injuries), any new contract should be discounted. If Greg wants a contract based on his healthy play only, I would say, “who will pay you that ?”, and if provided, consider sign and trade or just wait till next year. I don’t know if you can write in an “injury adjustment” into a contract, but that would be a way to address the issue. Pay him big if healty, not if out injuried. Really not unreasonable considering he will still make millions even if injured. The gamble is go for another season, then decide what the contract should be based on one more year. I think Greg has the most on the line, since crapping out will cost him, effectively, more than Allen. If Greg believes in his health, he can hold out, but he could be set for life with the contract he could take, even if “discounted”. Finally, does Greg really want to be in Portland, or does he not care. We shall see.
"You be realistic," Oden said. "I’m going to stay happy. All right?"
Oden's injury situation has devalued him...
The joke: “There are two types of NBA fans — those who think Greg Oden is a bust and Trailblazer fans.”
Basically, make him prove he can play a year without getting hurt by letting him go RFA. If he DOES get hurt, sign him short term at a greatly reduced rate, if he doesn’t get hurt, just match — because he’s worth more to KP & Co. than he is to any other GM.
It makes ZERO sense to mortgage the franchise for him with an LMA-like deal in advance of the season, because at this point you’d be bidding against yourself. NOBODY in the NBA, and I do mean NOBODY, is ready to put their head in a guillotine by prospectively overpaying for the universally-declared “Bust” that is Greg Oden.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Not even OKC?
Let him go to free agency and Greg’s going to be tempted to play with a good friend. The Thunder could take that guillotine position simply based on getting KD locked in, who is getting closer and closer to being able to do it all himself. If GO did fall again, they’ve got a secure backup plan. If he doesn’t go down again, that team just became Superbad.
by Chief Play Good Play Hard on Apr 5, 2010 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
with how cheap teams are being right now
I would be seriously suprised if Oden got TONS of offers next offseason. He might get a few, but it makes more sense to wait and see.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
I just realized I merely solidified timbo's point
I’m just a trailblazers fan and blind to the otherwise universally accepted reality that is “Bust”
by Chief Play Good Play Hard on Apr 5, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
You first have to sign your own free agents before you can sign other people's free agents
Hence if the Thunder would try to save some room by not extending Durant this summer (extremely unlikely) and Green, they would have big cap holds on their books eating their cap space. They have cap space this year for a big man. But not even all that much considering they’ll also add two first round picks in the 20s.
Well....
If he can be persuaded to take a deal that guarantees only a percentage of the full contract amount, I can see the Blazers taking a ‘chance’. Otherwise, there’s no use talking – you’re exactly right.
If Oden sticks to his guns and wants a large, guaranteed deal, it won’t happen. If the Blazers won’t guarantee at least a certain percentage of the deal, it won’t happen. If both sides decide to compromise and meet in the middle, I could see it happening.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
i just requested Oden to settle for a cheap contract this offseason
on Facebook.
/Topic
Fan of Greg Oden, Joel Przy, Batum, and Andre miller
OK, I ran a few numbers
and here’s a possible deal. Not sure if either side would agree to it, but….
4 years, $60,768,750
2011-12: $10,500,000 guaranteed with $2,625,000 in unlikely bonuses for games played/performance
2012-13: $11,602,500 guaranteed with $2,900,625 in unlikely bonuses
2013-14: $12,705,000 base salary is not guaranteed if waived before 6/30/13 and an additional $3,176,250 in unlikely bonuses
2014-15: $13,807,500 base salary is not guaranteed if waived before 6/30/14 and an additional $3,451,875 in unlikely bonuses. This is also a player option year, meaning that it can also be voided by Oden.
Greg would make $22,102,500 for 2 years at a minimum. If he played all 4 years but received no unlikely incentive money, he’d make $48,615,000. The total of incentive money is $12,153,750.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
by Storyteller on Apr 5, 2010 2:42 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
jeez. so much freaking money
cant belive kobe will be paid close to 30 million a year. that just his nba salary
Fan of Greg Oden, Joel Przy, Batum, and Andre miller
Remember this
Michael Jordan made more than $33 million in 1997-98. That year, the salary cap was $26.9 million.
Not only did MJ make more than the salary cap figure all by himself, he also made more than the combined player salaries of 19 other teams that year.
And, yeah, that was just nba salary – doesn’t account for his endorsement $$$.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Yeah
He went from just under $4 million in 1995-96 to over $30 million in 1996-97.
Still crazy, though, that he was personally making more than the combined salaries of 2/3 of the teams in the league…..
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
that's pretty good balance
between protecting the team if Oden can’t perform and paying him if he does.
"In fact you might say that Ugly is the Blazers' secret weapon this year."
"Game 75 Recap: Blazers 118, Knicks DNP"
-Dave
interesting numbers
although if a year of the contract is both a player option and a team option, it really just is kind of a guess, right? It would almost certainly be renegotiated one way or the other.
No
Only a team under the cap can re-negotiate a contract. The Blazers might be under the cap in 2014-15, but I doubt that will be the case.
And I’m probably being nitpicky, but the proposal is not for a team option, but rather for an unguaranteed year. Minor difference in terminology but huge in terms of the actual differences.
Now, if by ‘re-negotiate’ you mean that it’s likely that one side or the other opts out in favor of a new contract, I agree that is very likely. It’s kind of the point of the contract – if one side feels like they’re getting a raw deal by year 4, they can void the last year. Making it more likely that both sides will sign to begin with.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
I like that idea
Both parties can protect themselves, Oden will have guaranteed money either way with the potential and ability to turn it into the max-deal a healthy Oden would get, and the Blazers won’t be stuck paying Oden forever if he can’t stay healthy.
M—
#52
that's what i mean by renegotiate
so if the Blazers are over the cap, but Oden feels he is being underpaid and opts out, would we retain the ability to re-sign him (under the current CBA obviously, we have no idea about the new one)?
Yes
and if the new CBA retains the idea of ‘Bird Rights’, Portland would have full Bird Rights on Oden.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
I'm a GO booster--have been from Day 1
I rejected all the “he walks like an old man” nonsense, and the “one leg is shorter than the other” silliness. It was concerning to me that he allegedly tore his articular cartilage (requiring the microfracture procedure) without even knowing he’d done so. But I assumed GO had probably done something dumb and just never owned up to it. E.g, he’d had too much to drink and fallen down some steps—something like that. Hey, young people do dumb things sometimes. I sure did.
HOWEVER, this last injury—the broken patella—concerns me. Assuming the doctors are correct—that the injury had nothing to do with the cracked patella injury the previous season—then what in the hell was up with that? How do you fracture a patella simply by jumping—no contact, no twisting, no nothing at all?
Jay Jensen was quoted recently as saying, in effect, that the injury was a fluke—that GO is a huge guy with unusually strong leg muscles which put exceptional torque on the patella during that leap, causing it to break.
Sorry, but that makes me very uneasy going forward. Basically, Jensen seems to be saying that GO has too much hops for his size and build. Yet I didn’t read any indication that the staff has a strategy to address that problem. (E.g., stop strengthening his hamstrings & quads.)
So what in the world is to keep another devastating leg injury from occurring next season? GO himself must be wondering about that. I sure would…
I was born in '52, and I believe in #52. Hang in there, GO.
You too, Przy: everyone knows you're the heart & soul of the Blazers.
Well if you manage the balls to watch his injury video again (not recommended)
You will see how when he swung his leg around the toe caught the ground before his foot was aligned properly and he jumped a split second too early. From this he had one leg in the proper jumping position, but tried to jump off his other leg while it was pigeon-toed inward. One can just see the torque involved there and how that would cause an enormous amount of twisting to go on at the knee.
I suppose what I took away from that was that Greg needs work on his form, even in just the basic move and jump type category. Someone needs to pay some big bucks to get a well respected professional to evaluate his body dimensions, movement patterns, ect.. and design work-outs/exercises to teach his body to move safely and build appropriate strength. What this says to me is that we have every reason to believe Greg can hold up to an NBA beating, and that his problem is something that can be largely mitigated by proper training (and is NOT a problem that should be treated as unsolvable, as so many fans are want to do.) Greg needs to devote hours (if he isn’t already) to learning how to move his body and get positioned correctly to make the amazingly fast and powerful moves he was starting to be associated with.
Does KP have any choice?
I’m not talking about the choice between signing Oden this summer or next – I think it’s pretty clear that the team does have a choice there. Discussing that choice and its ramifications have taken up a lot of the comments on this thread and I’ve enjoyed reading and contributing to that discussion.
No, I mean does KP really have the choice of letting Oden walk? Not just passing on extending him this summer but also letting him walk in a year or two as a FA? Is that even an option if Oden doesn’t match expectations in 2010-11?
In the abstract, of course the answer is yes. I think that the front office of any sports franchise would say that they have the freedom to release any player. But in the case of the Blazers, can they realistically give up on Oden?
The data from Kevin Pelton (great stuff, KP2!) suggests the Oden might indeed be the single most unreplaceable player on the team. Coup suggested the same thing in his February article. Then you have the ‘Charles Barkley’ factor – last week he kept talking about how the Blazers need a low post offensive presence to complement Roy and Aldridge and I wanted to yell at my TV, “They have one in Oden!”, but couldn’t because he was right as long as Oden continues to sit on the bench.
KP isn’t stupid – he knew about the need of this team for a dominant big man, which is why he chose Oden 3 years ago even though I believe that the amazing workout by Durant made it a tougher decision than many suspect. But I also believe that he’s hooked the Blazer wagon to Oden and that he knows that without a healthy, productive Greg Oden, this team won’t win any championships as currently put together. Letting Oden go means more than just replacing him with a new big man, IMO it would mean a decision to re-start the process of building a championship team with a new strategy that might or might not include such pieces as Roy, Aldridge, Batum, etc.
Ben set up this discussion really in his piece but didn’t ask this crucial question. So I’m asking – does KP really have the choice of keeping or getting rid of Oden? And I’d say, at this point, no, he doesn’t. Not without changing the entire structure of the plans to win championships.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Yes in that we could consistently get 50 wins without him
No in that he is one of the few rare pieces that can take this team further. Even rarer for his age group and championship window.
Without Oden our other choices at center would (probably) make us favor a banger PF instead of a finesse one. I don’t see why we would get rid of Roy or Batum though…
The number of potential star centers switching teams via trade or free agency in their prime in recent years is pretty short I think
Shaq comes to mind. As for “potential star centers who turned out to be busts to mediocre players”, as I think Mortimer pointed out above all of those at least got a second contract chance (Olowokandi, Kwame, …).
If Greg gets another season-ending injury next season and they went the restricted free agency path, it might happen. He still wouldn’t be out of the league as someone would take a flier on him, so it might still be us only at a very reduced price. Apart from that, I don’t see how. At this point he falls in what Simmons calls the “he’s more valuable to us than he is to you” category, so we would never get more than 50 cents on the potential dollar if we traded him. And we wouldn’t get the necessary cap space either with Roy and Aldridge already on the books. And we wouldn’t get the lottery pick again if another potential star center comes around in the draft while the Blazers are in their prime/championship window. Greg is here to stay.
Maybe also playing into that is that he hasn’t lived up to the expectations of a #1 pick yet, and I think he knows that and feels bad about that. While his agent(s) won’t want to hear nothing of that, I think he feels like he still owes the team something for the money he will already have made on his first contract. Just my personal feeling.
Norsk - even if he misses the entire year next season
Do you think that KP really feels the freedom to let a 23 year old Oden walk? I just don’t. I think that, for good or bad, the Blazer front office as currently composes feels they have to re-sign Oden. When and for how much money, that’s to be debated, but not “should we or shouldn’t we?”
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Yeah, I'm thinking about who the #1 (or even top 3) picks were that teams gave up the quickest
The Wizards picked up the rookie contract years of Kwame Brown and then only gave him the QO in 2005, then traded him to the Lakers in August. And they got value for that (Caron Butler).
the irony of the situation is
ultimately KP’s reputation (and possible future in Portland) is inextricably tied up with Greg’s production, but from what we learned about the Roy negotiations during the Penn firestorm last month, Pritchard was removed from Brandon’s LTC process and replaced by Larry Miller, last July. So while KP may feel the need to “sign Oden at all costs” this summer, it sounds like the decision will be made above his head, and he’ll be on the sidelines watching the drama unfold, along with the rest ot us
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
last week he kept talking about how the Blazers need a low post offensive presence to complement Roy and Aldridge and I wanted to yell at my TV, "They have one in Oden!"
The interesting thing is, Charles made the same comment (surprise!) after Portland’s 2nd game of the season (against Denver, Melo scored 41, I don’t want to talk about it!) when Greg was in the game but not yet effective down in the post. So it’s not like Barkley is unaware that Portland has #52 on their roster, he’s just making an observation (like so many have, here on BE) that Portland’s offense tends to “settle” for jump shots, even though Nate implores his players to attack the basket and get the opposing team into the penalty as early as possible, in every quarter
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Canby Past His Prime...? Don't forget Robert Parish
Parish had 5 productive years between 36-40 yrs, when he averaged 12-14 ppg, ~10 rpg, and 1.2+ bpg. Canby’s offensive game is a lot like Parish, except the Chief had a better jumper; defensively though I’d rate Canby a better off and on-ball defender overall. MC may not get 15 ppg over the next 4-5 yrs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he consistently averaged 10/10/1. That’s worth a lot in this league.
by callmechristian on Apr 6, 2010 12:46 AM PDT reply actions
Parrish was an extreme outlier. If Camby has a career like his, it will be remarkable, but hardly expectable.
Plus, Camby’s spent a LOT more time on the DL over the years. Not much to recommend his long-term durability.
Give me a prior case
Of a guy who had major surgeries on both legs before age 23 who then went on to become the best player at his position (which many people are claiming GO will be if healthy; and btw, aren’t we kind of overlooking Dwight Howard with regard to that discussion?) for multiple seasons. Please. Give me one historical example so that I can sleep at night when we do sign Greg to a five-year deal this offseason. I beg of you.
Just saw that Bogut, Shaq, Yao, and Camby were mentioned above
Bogut played 226 games his first three seasons. Shaq played 241 out of a possible 246. Yao played 242 out of a possible 246. Camby was the most injury-prone of these guys mentioned in his first few years; he still played 172 games in his first three seasons, 90 more than Oden. Those are not applicable examples. The only one I can really find is Bill Walton, who missed 47 games in his first season and 31 games in his second before becoming the best center in the NBA for two years…and then suffering through an injury-ravished rest of his career in which he was never healthy for a full season as a starter again. The scary part? I see Bill Walton’s career as the BEST case for Oden. Which is why I’m in the “we REALLY need to see how he does in 2010-11 before giving him a contract” camp.
Sabas is another example of an oversized player
who struggled with a major injury relative young (achilles) and many foot and leg problems throughout his career. I wonder if Oden simply outgrew in muscle what his frame would allow, and maybe he will grow into it over time.
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