Getting beyond blocks

by manzell on Apr 20, 2010 12:23 PM PDT

So, Dwight Howard again won the Defensive Player of the Year award. I haven't really seen him play so I can't really evaluate the choice and don't have any other player to support, but I do notice an overwhelming tendancy for big men to win this award based on gawdy block totals.

I first decided blocks were a misleading stat back in the mid-90's when Gary Payton was the best defensive ballplayer alive, averaging like 18 bajillion steals per minute, while Mutumbo was stealing his DPOY trophy and what should have been a Sonics championship in 1994. I realized blocks were lame and steals were cool because:

* Steals guaranteed possession. 1 steal = 1 turnover. I don't know what percentage of blocks are recovered by the defensive team, but I'd wager it's no greater than 60% of the time. You can definitely argue that a block at the rim is more valuable than a steal, because a block at the rim is stopping a high percentage shot whereas a steal is stopping only a standard-percentage shot, but I'd like to see someone smarter than I do that analysis. Anyhow, in terms of value, a steal is worth "1 point" against a team that scores 100 points per 100 possessions; whereas a block is worth (let's say that team converts 60% of layups), for that shot, 1.2 points. however, if we say the offense recovers 40% of the time, and their offensive rating low in the shot clock is now 85.0 instead of 100.0, the defensive team still 'gives back' .85 * .4 = .34 points, meaning a block is now worth 0.86 points. I'd be very surprised if the numbers worked out to make blocks on even footing with steals in terms of value. I suppose you may need to factor in a 'gamble rate' whereby by attempting to go for the steal, you improve the other teams chance of scoring, but you'd also then have to factor in the foul rate for block attempts. I call it a wash.

* Steals were more likely (especially from the guard position) to lead to fast breaks and easy buckets. I wont even pretend to get into the numbers here, because I'm not smart enough. If anyone has anything to add to this, let it be known.

* Lastly, I've never felt that being big is a skill like quickness and agility. Basically, all big guys get blocks - but not all little guys rack up steals. It's harder to replace steals in a defense than blocks. Call this 'replacement level' theory. Also completely debatable.

Anyhow, i'd like to hear from the BEdger's what components should go into a 'best defensive player' designation.

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No.

LaMarcus Aldridge disagrees with your premise of “Basically, all big guys get blocks.”

by dwaynebillybob on Apr 20, 2010 12:49 PM PDT reply actions

the thing that is mesleding about steals

is that people who tend to get a lot of steals also take a lot of chances and lets players get by them

Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
1 down, 15 to go

by thomasikehara on Apr 20, 2010 12:58 PM PDT reply actions

True

Also many players that get a lot of steals do so at the expense of proper positional defense. Most of the time if you are “playing the passing lanes” you are not between your man and the basket and are in a poor position to block your man out for a rebound. At any given time in a defensive possession there is an ideal spot for a defender to be that achieves three things: guarding your man, playing your role in the overall team defense, and being in rebounding position. Some teams like to create schemes that free up one of their players to roam around and ignore these three things and gamble for steals, and some players just do it on their own. When the Lakers were bad a few years ago Kobe did this a lot and racked up some steals. Sometimes I see CP3 doing this for long stretches. Whether this is at the request of the coaching staff its hard to say.

by Matt29 on Apr 20, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions

I put more weight on blocks

1. Blocks are the denial of a scoring opportunity—often close to the basket
2. The ability to block shots by a big man has a tendency to affect all five offensive players
3. A shot blocker also creates steals for his teammates—they can take more chances
4. A good shot blocker has a tendency to force other teams to take more perimiter shots
5. A good shot blocker is generally a good rebounder as well, and rebounding is part of defense
6. Some shot blockers (Camby, The Dream, etc … are also pretty good at steals as well
7. Blocks are often spectacular and demoralizing to the other team at the same time

Need I say more? Shot blockers are also prettier—at least that is what some of the ladies say about Nic Batum.

21+52=

by KINGofMACct on Apr 20, 2010 1:17 PM PDT reply actions

Sorry, I forgot a very important concept relating to shot blockers

Shot blockers probably change or alter a lot more shots than they block. This can be described as, “A presence in the lane.”

21+52=

by KINGofMACct on Apr 20, 2010 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Very nice summary KING!

Especially regarding altering shots or having ‘presence’. This can lead to the offensive player(s) being hesitant in taking the shot altogether which leads to more time off the shot clock and thus increased pressure to take a poor shot.

IMO, the only real advantage the steal has is completely denying the shot attempt altogether. It may create fast break opportunities but so do blocks and rebounds, it just depends on the situation and whether someone leaks out on the break by recognizing the possession change is going to happen before it happens.

Regarding The Glove, his on ball defense was amazing. His feet were fast enough to deny penetration and his hands were quick at stealing from the guy he was guarding and not just playing the passing lanes. Definitely, should of got DPOY IMO…

"You kill a mosquito with an axe. Nothing personal, but this is what I've got to do. You're in my way right now so I've got to get rid of you and I'll see you next year." -Monty Williams

by clinchmobb on Apr 20, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Gary Payton was an incredible team defender at OSU

He was able to carry over his individual defense to the NBA—but his overall level of effect on the game was reduced when he began playing with the big boys. That being said, he was about as good as it gets for a guard in, “The League.” Sort of like Rondo for Boston now. In the end though, it is still a big man’s, bad attitude, in your face, shot blockers game.

21+52=

by KINGofMACct on Apr 20, 2010 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes indeed!

It is so much more fun blocking a shot than getting a steal and also more pleasurable watching it as a fan!

I’m not sure I would put Rondo in even the same chapter of the book much less the same page as GP. Give him a little more time especially without the other old dogs on that team and if he’s allowed to become ‘the man’ and I could see it maybe. GP was still ‘the man’ for the Sonics even with Kemp. It was his team

"You kill a mosquito with an axe. Nothing personal, but this is what I've got to do. You're in my way right now so I've got to get rid of you and I'll see you next year." -Monty Williams

by clinchmobb on Apr 20, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Rondo

only serves as a shadowy reminder of what GP was able to do in his prime. GP could play great D, hit the three, and tell his opponent all about it. I can imagine the victim’s pain when he would make a big play—running, running, running, in the hope that they would not have to hear all about it again and again and again.

21+52=

by KINGofMACct on Apr 21, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions

the eye test says

Dwight Howard is a monster. No matter if you look at stats (Reb %, Block %, DRtg) or subjective observations, he is the most important and highest impact defensive player in the league by a country mile. Here’s why:

The Orlando Magic are the number one defensive team in the league. Dwight Howard’s teammates are:

Vince Carter (well known as a lazy player and below average defender)
Jameer Nelson (a decent but short PG defender)
Mickael Pietrus (a decent but not spectacular wing defender)
Rashard Lewis (a PF who is basically built like Nic Batum.

And they were number one last year too, with Hedo Turkoglu (a below average defender) subbing for VC.

Furthermore, their defense got them to the finals, carrying Hedo, Rafer Alston and Rashard.

Defense is a team game, and when you look at the non-luminaries D12 has turned into the best defense in the league two years in a row, it’s pretty clear he is absolutely #1 on that end of the floor right now.

by atomiccafe on Apr 20, 2010 3:53 PM PDT reply actions

sorry, they are 3rd in DRtg this year. Still a remarkable achievement by Howard given the players around him.

by atomiccafe on Apr 20, 2010 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions

The #1 criteria for DPOY should be that he plays heavy minutes for a very good defensive team.

After that we can get into individual defensive stats (BLK%, DReb%, defensive rating, etc.) and defensive on/off plus minus stats, while making sure to take the eye test and the quality of one’s teammates into account.

by jksnake99 on Apr 20, 2010 4:11 PM PDT reply actions