FanPost

Guarding Against Overconfidence

Don't get me wrong,  I'm stoked after the game 1 victory and I do think we have a shot at winning this series.  I'm just trying to not make the same mistake the Suns fans made, and the national media made,  and think we have this thing in the bag now.  We certainly aren't nearly as dominant at home as we have been historically so we can't just assume that those games are a done deal, and hopefully Nate is keeping everyone's focus and intensity intact.  My question is this....lots of people are trotting out the fact that 78% of teams that win game 1 win the series.    On the surface that seems like a reason for a ton of optimism and even some swagger.   But isn't that number skewed heavily by the fact that probably 95% of the time the winner of game 1 is the home team, the higher seed, the team that usually wins the series?  A more useful statistic would be:  the percentage of times that a lower seed that wins game 1, wins the series.  I have no idea how to find out how often a game one winning lower seed pulls out the series so I thought I'd see here if someone else did.  Dre has won 3 game ones as a lower seed and lost all three series which makes me think the percentages are far far lower than 78%.    

By realizing that this series is going to be tough and could swing quickly back in the Suns favor with a misstep, the more we are able to lower our eyes from the prize (advancing), and really focus only on the next win and how much effort and concentration it will require,  the more probable it is we will advance.


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