The Portland-Phoenix Matchup Part 1: A Look at the Numbers

This is the first post in a multi-part series detailing the upcoming Blazers-Suns series.  Today we're going to look at the raw numbers and what they might mean.  Ensuing posts will look at matchups and injuries, play-calling strategies, the history between the two teams this season, and more.

First, the playoff schedule:

• Game 1:  Sunday, April 18^th, 7:30 p.m. Pacific on TNT
• Game 2:  Tuesday, April 20^th, 7:00 p.m.
• Game 3:  Thursday, April 22^nd, 7:00 p.m.
• Game 4:  Saturday, April 24^th, 1:30 p.m.
• Game 5: (when necessary)  Monday, April 26^th, Time TBA
• Game 6: (when necessary)  Thursday, April 29^th, Time TBA
• Game 7: (if necessary)  Saturday, May 1^st, Time TBA

Since the numbers take up valuable space you'll have to click through to read the rest of the post.

HOW TO READ THE TABLES 

Statistical categories are laid out in four columns. 

• The first shows Portland's number for that category.
• The second shows Phoenix's number against for that category.
• The third shows Phoenix's number for that category.
• The fourth shows Portland's number against for that category.

In other words, the head-to-head stats are adjacent to each other.  Example from Row 1:  Portland scores 97.9 points per game while Phoenix allows its opponents 105.6.  Phoenix scores 110.4 ppg while Portland allows its opponents 94.5.  Or you can simple compare the same stat for both teams by looking at the "Offense" or "Defense" columns (1st and 3rd or 2nd and 4th). 

Do not be confused by the terms "offense" and "defense" in the headings.  The "Offense" column doesn't always mean an offensive stat (e.g. Defensive Rebounds or Steals).  "Offense" means the team is trying to do this thing and "Defense" means how good the other team is at preventing said thing.  For instance Portland is 8^th in Defensive Rebounding Percentage but Phoenix is 7^th in Defensive Rebounding Percentage Allowed so that's likely to be a battle.

League rank is listed before the actual number to provide perspective.

For any Phoenix fans reading, the analysis is unabashedly Blazer-centric since this is a Blazer blog.  Here's the default position:  Phoenix is more likely to win this series.  Portland will have to do certain things to overcome the Suns' advantages.  Those things are discussed below.  Such discussion does not imply that said things are likely to happen, only that they need to happen in order for Portland to be successful against your fine team.

SCORING

Analysis: Right off the bat you can see that this series is going to be about tempo.  The Pace numbers (4^th for Phoenix, 30^th for Portland) are one thing, but you also need to look at the offensive columns beyond that.  Phoenix obliterates Portland in the metrics that aren't adjusted for pace:  1^st to 21^st in overall points, 6^th to 30^th in fast break points, 3^rd to 30^th in points in the paint.  The gap closes measurably, though, in the efficiency stats which ignore pace.  Phoenix is still scary, but not overwhelming.  In fact Phoenix is +4.4 in comparative Offensive Efficiency but Portland is +3.4 in comparative Defensive Efficiency.   Portland's Defensive Efficiency compares reasonably well when stacked up against Phoenix's Offensive Efficiency as well, while Phoenix's D.E. doesn't phase Portland a bit.  The question is, whose game will be played?  In order to win Portland is going to have to bring Phoenix down from the stratosphere enough that the Blazers' more mortal numbers prove adequate.  Pace is the key there.

That's not to say that Portland must always play slow.  To the contrary, they need to circle that 24^th in the league Fast Break Points Allowed stat.  One of the ways to bring Portland's scoring up will be running out for easy hoops.  But they have to maintain that 2^nd in the league Fast Break defense as well.  Portland's game can't be all-out crazy.  They have to strike, then control.  Strike, then control.

SHOOTING

Analysis:  Once again you see some nasty numbers here in the Phoenix Offense column.  That bevy of firsts and top-five finishes is intimidating, especially when compared to the more homely middle-of-the-road offerings in the Portland column.  However there's hope here as well.  The Blazers look to be in trouble in the basic field goal stats.  But Portland's defense gets stiffer at the three-point arc (5^th by percentage), which is a huge key for Phoenix.  Portland's free throw stats are actually better than the Suns'.  The Blazers can probably live with Phoenix shooting well overall if they can make a dent in the Suns' three-point production while scoring extra points themselves at the line.  If control is the cake in the playoff plan these extra points are the frosting.  Phoenix won't stop you from getting yours.  In fact they might allow you a few extra.  You just have to take a bit out of theirs at the other end. 

REBOUNDING

 Analysis:  Rebounding is the first key to ball control.  Ball control is the key to enforcing your tempo and your will.  Portland has a huge advantage in rebounding over the Suns.  Those percentage lines tell everything.  The Blazers are 4^th best in offensive rebounding, Phoenix second-worst in preventing those O-rebs.  Portland's bigs hit the glass while the perimeter guys get back to build a fence against the break.  Phoenix can't run as easily if they're not sure they can get the ball.  Offensive rebounds also allow those extra points we talked about above.  Phoenix is also a good offensive rebounding team but the Blazers prevent them far better than the Suns do.  Plus the Blazers don't lose as much by taking their time securing the rebound as the Suns do.  This will be among the most important battlefields of the series...or at least Portland hopes to define it as such.  If Portland can't win on the boards Portland can't win. 

BLOCKS, STEALS, ASSISTS, TURNOVERS 

Analysis:  Neither team relies on these categories overmuch except the Suns with their assists.  Portland usually defends well against the pass, so even that's not a huge deal.  But there's a hidden factor here, buried in Portland's miserly turnover rate and Phoenix's complete lack of forcing them.  If you can't control the boards one of the other ways to shift tempo is via the turnover, particularly steals.  Portland never gives them up.  Phoenix never collects them.  Unless things go completely wonky (which they could...more on that tomorrow) the Suns won't have this safety fallback.  They're going to have to play the Blazers straight up, possession for possession.  If Portland can turn the tempo in their favor the Suns will just have to lump it...a serious advantage for the Blazers.

Final Analysis:  Let Phoenix have their heads and you're dead.  Their defense is no great shakes but it's not as bad as their offense is good.  This isn't just a matchup of talent, it's a matchup of will.  Phoenix has a natural advantage there, having been deep in the playoffs before.  But Portland's had a few surprises up their sleeves lately, largely due to the heady play of the veterans they acquired this season.  While both teams have a chance to win at either end of the spectrum, there are enough stylistic differences between these teams that you'll be able to tell who has the upper hand in this series simply by what kind of game is being played.

There are other juicy tidbits in the numbers, I'm sure.  I'll let you sort them out in the comments.  Tomorrow we'll get more into matchups with emphasis on the ultra-critical roles of Andre Miller and Marcus Camby.

Don't forget to check out the preparations over at BrightSideoftheSun.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)