Updated West Scenarios
by douglast on Apr 13, 2010 10:57 PM PDT
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Print2nd through 5th
If Phoenix wins:
2) Dallas
3) Phoenix
4) Denver
5) Utah
If Utah wins and Dallas loses:
2) Utah
3) Dallas
4) Phoenix
5) Denver
If Utah and Dallas both win:
2) Dallas
3) Utah
4) Phoenix
5) Denver
6th and 7th:
Portland wins OR San Antonio loses:
6) Portland
7) San Antonio
Portland loses AND San Antonio wins:
6) San Antonio
7) Portland
Thoughts:
Denver is now locked into the other side of the bracket, so they are no longer a possible opponent for Portland.
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I agree
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Apr 14, 2010 12:07 AM PDT up reply actions
on it
see my notes below. i just typed my way through it. I think this nails it
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
yep, they all look good.
Once I thought through the possibilities of maybe wanting to throw the game depending on the outcome of phoenix/utah – if it ends before us, the striking realization came to be that if dallas loses earlier, we would want to win that game no matter who wins the phoenix/utah game.
so, all talk of throwing the game is now moot, as it cannot possibly help us (unless you are sadistic and want Utah)
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
At this point I think the more important claim
is that the Blazers took the seed for themselves rather than winning it through the work of others. I’m all for a win.
—Dave
exactly
but the dallas/san antonio game will end around the time we tipoff. If Dallas has won, we will already claim 6th and can only watch helpless to see if Utah or Phoenix will be our opponent. No shame in taking it easy after that.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
Most definitely rooting for Phoenix
Because I think we match up better against them than pretty much anyone else.
No matter what, it’s going to be a tough series if Roy is out.
Around tipoff, one of two things will be known:
If Dallas has won, then we are locked in on 6th and Dallas on 2nd. Our game won’t matter, but we will face the winner of the Phoenix @ Utah game
If Dallas has lost, then we can drop to 7th by losing, but we won’t know if Dallas ends up 2nd or 3rd until the end of the Utah/Phoenix game, with all three of those teams still being possible opponents. Unless their game ends enough before our for us to act on it (this is all theory – unlikely we even would), we won’t know whether winning or losing gets us Dallas, Phoenix, or Utah. However, if their game does ends early enough, and Utah wins, then we know winning gets us Dallas and losing gets us Utah. If Phoenix had won, then we know winning gets us Phoenix and losing gets us Dallas. Therefore (assuming we all agree Utah is the worst opponent), in either of those scenarios where Dallas has lost – winning gets us the more favorable matchup that is still possible. Therefore, we actually won’t care about the outcome of Utah/Phoenix – we will just want to win!
So – long story short –
If Dallas beats the Spurs, our game doesn’t matter at all.
If the Spurs win, we want to win our game no matter what.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
by douglast on Apr 13, 2010 11:06 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Outstanding breakdown
Basically, rest who needs rest if Dallas wins (unless you are of the momemtum matters too much school); play to win if Spurs win.
thank you so much for simplifying it! I was trying to remember all the match up scenarios by themselves which was much harder than this way.
"What people need to know is that those pictures were taken a year and a half ago, and I've grown since then." - Greg Oden
by dario argento on Apr 13, 2010 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Spurs rest stars
San Antonio have played Dallas decently this year and they aren’t really scared of anyone at this point. They are not desperate to get out of that 2-7 matchup with Dallas.
They will be playing before the Blazers tipoff against Golden State and who isn’t assuming the Blazers will beat Golden State. So the Mavs game becomes pointless to the Spurs (if it wasn’t already pointless). This will incline Popovich to rest Duncan and Manu for sure, possibly Parker unless he thinks playing will help him, since he is coming back from an injury.
Greg Popovich has been known to rest his stars as much as any coach in the league, so there is no reason to believe the Spurs will fight to win Wednesday’s game against Dallas. Especially since Dallas could lock up home-court in the second round with a win.
"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."
-Chauncey Billups
Quick table...
Using the information from douglast, here is what a basic table of outcomes looks like:
DAL | UTA | POR = UTA
DAL | UTA | WAR = UTA
DAL | PHO | POR = PHO
DAL | PHO | WAR = PHO
SAN | UTA | POR = DAL
SAN | UTA | WAR = UTA
SAN | PHO | POR = PHO
SAN | PHO | WAR = DAL
All things being equal, 3/8 odds of Utah, 3/8 odds of Phoenix, 2/8 odds of Dallas. Of course, Utah is still the single most likely outcome for us.
All things being equal, we want San Antonio to win, Phoenix to win, and Portland to win, which sets up the Phoenix-Dallas 1-2 punch.
no, it does. It determines who the third seed is. If Utah wins, they get the second seed, and Dallas the third (given a loss to SA), because Utah has the tiebreak over Dallas. If Phoenix wins, they get the third seed and Dallas the second.
#52
"We have nothing to lose." - Martell
by Cablinasian on Apr 13, 2010 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions
If both SAN and POR win, we are locked into the 6th seed,
and as you said, whatever the outcome of the UTA-PHX game, the 3rd seed will go to either PHX or DAL, which are the preferable match-ups
Phoenix also determines who they will end up facing
If they win their game, then they get Portland or San Antonio. If they lose, then they get Denver, the team they just stomped on their home court. Phoenix has some incentive to not win their game tomorrow.
And Utah has a LOT of incentive to win.
A Utah win means that Utah has home-court advantage in the first round, a loss means it does not have HCA.
A Utah win also guarantees Utah a matchup against Portland or San Antonio, against whom Utah is 8-0 this season. A Utah loss means that Utah is matched up against Denver, against whom Utah is 1-3.
This was going to be a tough game for Phoenix anyway, but when you factor in a neutrally-motivated to unmotivated Phoenix team and a highly motivated Utah team, I’m not going to get my hopes up for a Phoenix win. That’s not to say its unreasonable to hope for a win, just that I’m looking forward to watching tonight’s games without worrying about the outcome.
Also, I think there is a tendency right now among us Bedgers to overstate the benefits of a Phoenix matchup versus a Utah matchup. We tend to underestimate Phoenix: Phoenix is playing REALLY good basketball right now, even without Lopez. We tend to overestimate Utah: we WILL play better basketball against Utah than we have shown this year, if we get matched up against them. I do agree that Phoenix is a better matchup for Portland, but its not nearly as obvious as we’re making it sound. Its not as if a Phoenix matchup guarantees that Portland gets past the first round, and a Utah matchup guarantees a first round exit.
by BlazerFanSince2001ish on Apr 14, 2010 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
im calling it right now
lakers lose in the 1st, denver loses to utah we beat phoenix, and boozer gets injured and we tromp them at a later date.
The matchups seem to favor the Blazers in a lot of places
But so much rides on B Roy.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Three Points
1. All eight teams in the West are very, very good. None are truly outstanding (although LA could be if they return to prior year form)
2. I don’t think anyone can say definitively who is the best matchup in a playoff series, especially given the limited context of how we fared against them in the regular season. They will all be difficult (particularly without homecourt advantage), but they are also all beatable.
3. Given the facts above, we need the highest seed possible because it is entirely plausible for any of the 5-8 seeds to win in the first round, thereby making homecourt in the second round (if we get that far) an outcome that we can influence tonight.
Bring back Camby. Please.
by The Cactus Leaguer on Apr 14, 2010 4:32 PM PDT reply actions
Wow this playoff seeding talk only gives me headaches.
I thought it would be alot simpler today then yesterday and it is but not worth crunching my head over. Just win tonight and beat who ever we play in the playoffs. Simple as that!
by NorthWest Connection on Apr 14, 2010 5:03 PM PDT reply actions
Looks like Spurs are giving up their game vs Dallas
Utah or Phoenix it is then
Garden Variety Internet Denizen. Play Jerryd Bayless.
WORD UP.STAY.FRESCO
Apparently the Spurs are resigned to getting the Mavericks in the playoffs
That or they assume that the Blazers win tonight, and hence they shouldn’t bother with their own game against the Mavericks tonight.
Spurs are resting Duncan and Ginobli
They’re letting Parker, who is rusty, stretch his legs.
Watch Pop call a timeout and substitute if the Spurs make a run.
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