Take This Plateau and Shove It (AKA The Value of a Legit Center to the Blazers)

I heard on the radio recently a growing sentiment (concern) that this team has sort of "plateau"-ed

I know I know, it's stupid because it ignores all the injuries to key players, etc.  But let us assume that our record this year IS reflective of where this team really is.  Does that mean we can't contend for a championship, because we are just stuck in a 1980s pattern of making the playofs and fizzling out?

The answer, I strongly contend, is no.  And here's why:

I am okay discounting injuries to key players, with the following caveat: let's only look at the games this season where we had a legit starting center (i.e., the games with Marcus or Greg on the active roster).

The result?  We contend with the Lakers for top seed in the West.  Really! 

More after the jump...

So, I took the record of games where Greg or Marcus was on the active roster, and compared them with the games where we did not have a legit starting center on the active roster (I did look at the Joel games, but those really didn't teach us much):

Here's the result:

Games before Greg's injury:  14-8 (he started all games)

Games after Marcus arrived: 19-7 (including three games where he was on the roster but didn't play)

Games with Joel: 4-4

Games with anyone else: 13-12

In short, when we had a legit starting center on the active roster (even if injured a few games, as they always will be), our record was 33-15, winning at a .688 clip, projecting out to 56 1/2 wins.

The other games?  a pedestrian 17-16, and obviously not a playoff team in the West.

What does that mean?  I have no idea, but it excites me for next year and a potential Oden/Marcus tandem manning the post.  Is a .700 winning percentage unreasonable to expect for such a squad, assuming BOTH PLAYERS don't suffer season-ending injuries?  The above numbers would seem to indicate .700 basketball is within the team's reach, even if one goes down.  Maybe better if we don't have the rash of injuries to other players that weren't even considered in this analysis

So, next time someone says that with Rudy's struggles, the loss of some of the other young players on the roster, etc., we have become a "veteran" team that has reached its ceiling and points to this season as evidence, just remember...we'll take .700 ball anytime, and .700 ball is basically what the team played in games played with a legit center available.

And .700, by the way, is exactly the Lakers' current winning percentage.