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Sched Ahead Daily Update, Games of 3/8

Everybody wins the games they should, New Orleans wins to get back to .500, and San Antonio misses a golden opportunity to steal a road win against the Cavs. 

Starting today, I'll try to provide daily updates of the game by game tables.

Yesterday's update.

Most recent weekly update, including game category definitions.

Star-divide

Yesterday's Games

  1. San Antonio @ Cleveland.  LeBron was out, Shaq was out, Jamison missed the second half with a knee problem, and the Spurs still didn't get the win, despite Manu tearing up the Cavs for 38 points (7-11 on 3s).  Manu followed Kobe's example from their game against Orlando and stepped on the line when a 3 pointer was needed.  In the first half, Pops called timeout and yelled at the Spurs for lack of defense, then benched Blair and Jefferson for Hairston and Mahinmi, hoping to get some D out of them.  Hey, coach, I could have told you at draft time that Blair and Jefferson were hardly going to help your defense.  Jamison owned them for 17 points in the first half before going out.  George Hill scored 23, but Duncan (13) was the only other man in double figures for the Spurs.  Mo Williams matched Jamison's 17 for Cleveland, who had 6 in double figures.
  2. Golden State @ New Orleans.  Thornton and West scored 28, Collison had 16 with 20 assists, and Okafor got 22 and 11 rebounds as the Hornets get back to .500, triggering recategorization of their games.  Both teams shot 59% and bombed away on 3 pointers, but New Orleans had a lot more success inside and outrebounded G.S. 44-23.  The Hornets had six in double figures, while the Warriors had seven, led by 28 from Morrow (11-13, 6-6 on 3s) and Reggie Williams, a D-League callup.
  3. N.J. @ Memphis.  Yes, Memphis can win at home, even if it takes the Nets coming to town.  Memphis was without Zach (back trouble), but it didn't matter in the first half as they rolled to 67 points and a 16 point half time lead, but they wasted the lead and let the Nets back in, only scoring 40 in the second half.  It was enough, though, to break their 8 game home losing streak.  Gay and Conley both scored 21, Gasol 19, and balanced scoring overcame 30 from Courtney Lee and 28 from Devin Harris.
  4. Dallas @ Minnesota.  Twelve straight wins for Dallas.  Shawn Marion scored 29 with 14 rebounds, Dirk had 24, and Butler had 23.  Haywood was still out for Dallas, and Al Jefferson tore them up inside with 36 points and 13 rebounds, but it was never going to be enough as the T'Wolves had 26 turnovers, 8 by Jonny Flynn.   

This result certainly improves our chances of passing the Spurs.  They have so many games remaining against the elite teams in the league, and they desperately need to win at least a couple of those.  This was a golden opportunity.  They ought to be able to win the rest of their games this week, it isn't until a couple of weeks from now that their schedule becomes really brutal, but this was a blow to their hopes. 

Chasing Pack Game by Game Table

Portland Houston New Orleans Memphis
at Denver at Boston at Denver at Boston
at L@kers at Utah at Orlando
at Dallas
at Denver
----- ----- ----- -----
at New Orleans at Chicago at Oklahoma City at Houston
at OKC at OKC at Phoenix at Milwaukee
at Phoenix at San Antonio at Memphis at San Antonio
at Memphis at Houston at Oklahoma City
at Phoenix
----- ----- ----- -----
vs Dallas vs Boston vs Denver vs Denver
vs Dallas vs L@kers vs Dallas vs Dallas
vs Utah vs Cleveland
vs Denver vs L@kers
vs Utah
----- ----- ----- -----
vs Toronto vs Memphis vs Portland vs Chicago
vs Oklahoma City vs Charlotte vs Charlotte vs New Orleans
vs New Orleans vs Houston
----- ----- ----- -----
at Golden State at Washington at Clippers at Sacramento
at Sacramento at NYK at Golden State at Golden State
at Sacramento at Indiana at New Jersey
at Clippers at Sacramento
----- ----- ----- -----
vs Sacramento vs New Jersey vs Washington vs New York
vs Washington vs Clippers vs Minnesota vs Golden State
vs New York vs Washington vs Philadelphia
vs Golden State

Teams Just Ahead Game by Game Table

Portland San Antonio Oklahoma City Phoenix
at Denver at Orlando @ Boston at Utah
at L@kers at Atlanta @ Dallas
at Boston @ Utah
at L@kers
at Denver
at Dallas
----- ----- ----- -----
at New Orleans at Miami @ Portland at Chicago
at Oklahoma City at Oklahoma City @ Charlotte at OKC
at Phoenix at Phoenix @ Toronto at Milwaukee
----- ----- ----- -----
vs Dallas vs LA Lakers vs Denver vs LA Lakers
vs Dallas vs Cleveland vs LA Lakers vs Utah
vs Orlando vs Utah vs Denver
----- ----- ----- -----
vs Toronto vs Memphis vs Phoenix vs New Orleans
vs Oklahoma City vs Houston vs Memphis vs Portland
vs San Antonio vs San Antonio
vs Houston vs Houston
vs Portland
vs New Orleans
----- ----- ----- -----
at Golden State @ Minnesota @ Golden State @ Golden State
at Sacramento @ Sacramento @ Philadelphia @ New Jersey
at Sacramento @ New Jersey @ Indiana @ Detroit
at Clippers @ Minnesota
----- ----- ----- -----
vs Sacramento Minnesota vs New Jersey vs New York
vs Washington Golden State vs Minnesota vs Minnesota
vs New York NY Knicks
vs Golden State LA Clippers
 

Projections

  1. L.A.  58.4 wins (down from 58.7).   
  2. Dallas.  55.8 wins (up from 55.7).
  3. Denver.  53.8 wins (down from 53.9).
  4. Utah.  52.3 wins.
  5. Phoenix.  50.4 wins (down from 50.5).  
  6. OKC.  49.6 wins (down from 50.0).
  7. S.A.  48.0 wins (up from 47.7).
  8. Portland.  47.4 wins.
  9. Memphis.  41.9 wins (up from 41.6).
  10. Houston.  41.5 wins (down from 41.4).
  11. N.O.  40.9 wins (up from 40.6).

Technical adjustments due to the N.O. recategorization, mostly.  San Antonio takes a small hit due to their mostly-expected loss at Cleveland, but a big (and mostly artificial) boost from their four wins over the Hornets becoming more valuable.  

Tonight

  1. Sacramento @ Portland.  Cat 1 "Cream Puff" for the Blazers, but don't let the category fool you, this is not a walk-over.  These guys won in Houston and gave OKC a couple of tough games in the last week.  We'll have to go out and take it.  The Landry/Martin trade helped them significantly, IMO, and Jason Thompson is back from injury.  We should have Marcus back, which will help.  We'd better come ready to play.  If we play well, we'll win, but if we have one of those bad nights again, we'll be in danger of taking a bad loss.
  2. Houston @ Washington.  A Cat 3 "Banana Peel" for a team that has struggled against losing teams recently, and needs to stop losing to anyone for the next two weeks, at least, to get back into the hunt.  One bit of encouragement for the Rockets is that they should get Ariza back for this one, and Lowry back later this week.   But Washington just battled the Celtics down to the wire, so they may give a tough battle.
  3. Utah @ Chicago.  A Cat 4 "Rocky Road" for the Jazz, who still have hopes of catching Denver, but haven't been as dominant as they were in their earlier hot streak.  Chicago is not the same team without Noah, and he won't play in this one -- I'm not sure they have an answer for Boozer and Millsap.  The Rose/Williams matchup should be an interesting one.
  4. Toronto @ L.A.  A Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" at home for the L@kers.  Toronto really struggled after the Bosh injury, but he should be pretty much back to normal, and they should have their full team.  The L@kers have lost three straight and seem to have dissension right now.  It probably means little, and Toronto's defense is likely to be easy pickings for them, but if the Raptors can pull this one off with some hot three point shooting, we could see Dallas really start to pressure L.A. for the top seed.

This is a big game, even bigger than Denver.  We could accomplish just about every feasible goal left to us without a win at Denver, but we can't lose games like this.  If we win all of our remaining games against losing teams, that alone may be enough to clinch a playoff spot, and enough to get us fairly close to San Antonio.

Apologies for the late post today, work zapped me hard from very early this morning.

Comment 8 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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Shoot no need to apologize!

I am thankful for these updates no matter when they come out.
Just curious if you have thought about or looked at the timing of San Antonio’s remaining schedule maybe not being that brutal towards the end of the year as the good teams might not have much to play for (i.e. seedings clinched and may rest some players).

#52

by blazermaniac32 on Mar 9, 2010 11:36 AM PST reply actions  

I'm not too concerned about that

Final games (reverse order):

at Dallas — what you suggest could be a factor, but figure this. Chances are high that Dallas is the #2 seed. If losing to the Spurs would make S.A. #7, and beating them would make them #8, will Dallas want to lose? Lose to a dangerous team with Manu and Duncan and Jefferson and possibly Parker (before the end of the series)? So that you have to play them in the first round, and they get to come in with the confidence of having just beat you? I think if this game matters to either team, it is probably Dallas comes to play. Despite what has happened for us in Dallas this year, I suspect they fear the Spurs more than us — we beat them on the rush of response to Joel’s injury, and on a total freak game by Andre. There’s also the chance that Dallas needs the win for home court in the Finals against at least one potential Finals opponent from the East, and they are thinking about going all the way, not just the Western seedings. Also, it’s a home game, no one wants to end their season getting beat badly at home.

vs Minnesota — they’ll win, doesn’t matter.

at Denver — three games to go. If Denver plays well enough to have clinched the division by this point, they will probably be close to Dallas and want to win. Again, home court vs. Eastern teams matters to Denver, they want to win it all. I’ll be surprised if this game doesn’t matter to the Nuggets. I think they’ll play. Home game for Denver, Spurs on a back to back, so the Nuggets will see it as very winnable, and they won’t want to give away a winnable game at home.

vs Memphis — in all probability, Memphis will be out of it by this point, and so they might not show up. But I’m not really counting on the Spurs losing this one anyway. It’s possible Memphis will be fighting for a plus .500 record, which might provide the motivation, so I won’t say it is likely they’ll sleepwalk it. It’s possible, but might not matter. Probable Memphis win.

at Phoenix — five games out from the end. Will the Suns’ seeding be set in stone by that time? Perhaps, but seems unlikely. Back to back for the Spurs, the Suns will see it as winnable, home game for them, they’ll want the win. They’ll play even if their seed is secure.

at Sacramento — they are only playing for pride anyway, but they seem a bunch of competitive guys. They’ll play, and might catch the Spurs, who will be between games at LA and at Phoenix. Will they not look ahead just a little to Phoenix the very next night? Duncan and Manu won’t, but they are going to be relying on George Hill and DeJuan Blair, too. If it matters, this could be a fun one to watch.

at L.A. If there’s still a chance they could be the #8 seed, L.A. will want to send a message. This is seven games before the end of the season, though, which means the L@kers will probably still have Dallas nominally in reach, but will almost certainly be still contesting homecourt with Cleveland and/or Orlando, either of which they might meet in the Finals. They’ll play.

That’s their last seven, in reverse. The only ones that really concern me are Dallas and Memphis, but Dallas is likely to play if it matters, for the reasons I’ve given.

“Shoot no need to apologize” That’s what my coach used to say when the ball was dropping, but his attitude was different when I was cold.

Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!

by jscot on Mar 9, 2010 2:32 PM PST up reply actions  

this comment broke my scroll wheel

If you weren't a jail blazers fan...
you aren't a trail blazers fan.

by rudy fernandez forever on Mar 9, 2010 11:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Liar, Liar!

It was already broken by the original post.

Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!

by jscot on Mar 10, 2010 5:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Thanks for doing this!

Hopefully we can take care of business, get a little hot and make this analysis a moot point.

#52

by blazermaniac32 on Mar 10, 2010 5:28 AM PST up reply actions  

must win tonight if we want to finish better than 8th

we just cannot afford to drop any home games to teams out of the hunter – and we need 3 of 4 of the road ones too.

"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare

by douglast on Mar 9, 2010 12:11 PM PST reply actions  

I agree

Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!

by jscot on Mar 9, 2010 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

There are many here that did not know this at draft time

“Hey, coach, I could have told you at draft time that Blair and Jefferson were hardly going to help your defense”

Appreciation for you from here, as always. Bringing it every day!

"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis

by lee3022 on Mar 9, 2010 6:53 PM PST reply actions  

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