Sched Ahead and Updated Head to Head 3/8/10, Week Nineteen

The normal Sched Ahead weekly update, with the new Head to Head comparisons updated as well.

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  "Cream Puff" Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  "Jawbreaker" Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  "Banana Peel" Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  "Rocky Road".

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 ("Cream Puff" Home), a majority of Cat 2 ("Jawbreaker" Home) and Cat 3 ("Banana Peel" Road), and win some in Cat 4 ("Rocky Road").  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

The jscot Stupid Sched Projections methodology is explained in this post.  Since they are stupid projections, it doesn't bear repeating here.

Last week's update

Yesterday's daily update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

In the last week, New Orleans dropped below .500, while Miami moved back above .500, triggering recategorizations of their games.  

YESTERDAY'S GAMES

1. Portland @ Denver.  Too bad, but if you're surprised, something is wrong.  Without a center, those guys are too good for us in Denver.  Maybe possibly if Brandon were 100%, but he isn't really. 
2. L.A. @ Orlando.  Three straight losses for the L@kers.  Man, it's fun to write that.  There's trouble in paradise, too, they just don't look together.  They can definitely be had this year.  These two teams went at each other, though, it was as testy on court as a Blazersedge sidebar thread after a bad loss.  Kobe had 34 (12-30 shooting) and Pau had 20 and 11, but they fell short, and they aren't a happy team right now.  Artest was 2-10, didn't they know he would shoot them out of some games when they got him?  Pau (8-13) was the only L@ker to shoot 50% or better.  Denver and Dallas have to be looking at the gap to the #1 seed and wondering, wondering, wondering....
3. Houston @ Detroit.  A back to back for the Rockets, and their playoff hopes almost certainly died in overtime.  The only way they get in now, IMO, is if someone ahead of them has a total collapse.  Tayshaun had 3 dunks late and finished with 29 points, while Rip had 22.  Houston missed a key three pointer at the end of regulation and another that could have tied it at the end of overtime.  Martin (27), Brooks (25), and Scola (20) continued their prolific scoring for Houston.  Kyle Lowry and Trevor Ariza both missed the game.  Detroit's Bens made interesting contributions to their victory.  Ben Gordon was 1-7, 6 points, 2 turnovers, 4 fouls, in 26 minutes (great signing, Dumars).  Ben Wallace was inactive and in street clothes, but still found a way to affect the game by picking up a T. 
4. OKC @ Sacramento.  I had hopes for this one, but it wasn't to be.  Durant had 27 but only went 1-5 in the fourth, but Westbrook scored 13 of his 21 in the last quarter and the "Blunder" gets a "Banana Peel" out of the way.  Tyreke had 24 and Landry 20 for the Kings, who are now down to .500 at home.  This was Jason Thompson's first game back, particularly relevant to us since we see Sacramento twice this week.

Despite the loss at Denver, which was pretty much expected, we effectively wrap up a playoff spot as the only team that really had a hope of catching us drops one of their "should-win" games. 

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-1).  A good week, winning a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" at home against Indiana and splitting Cat 4 "Rocky Road" games, winning at Memphis and losing at Denver.  

Dallas (4-0) had their second straight 4-0 week, moved into #2 in the West, and they are now only 3 games behind L.A.  They got a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Charlotte on a BtoB, won two "Cream Puffs" at home against Minnesota and Sacramento, then won a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" BtoB at Chicago.  Eleven straight wins, and based on the schedule, there is no real reason the streak shouldn't hit 15.

Denver (3-1) had a tough start to the week with a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" loss at Phoenix (both teams BtoB) but then had three home games and won them all, a Cat 2 blowout against OKC ("Blunder" on a BtoB), a Cat 1 against the Pacers, and then a Cat 2 over Portland.    

Houston (2-2) had a very disappointing week, as their playoff challenge continues to fizzle.  Four winnable games and they only got two of them, a Cat 2 at home against Toronto (sans Bosh and Calderon) and a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Minnesota.  Disaster struck when they lost a home "Cream Puff" against Sacramento, who was on a BtoB, and it struck again when the Rockets, on a BtoB themselves, lost a Cat 3 at Detroit.  Four and a half games out of a playoff spot with 20 games remaining, and they just played some of the easier games on their remaining schedule. 

L.A.  (1-3).  Unfortunately, they did get a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" home win against the Pacers.  Other than that, you couldn't have hoped for much better, as they dropped a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Miami, a BtoB Cat 3 at Charlotte, and another Cat 4 at Orlando.  Schadenfreude is not something I usually endorse, but I'll make an exception.

Memphis (2-2) continues to make those who wrote them off early look bad, but also those who think they are a real threat.  They are simply a .500 team who won't make the playoffs.  They took losses in the two games they most needed, Cat 2 home games to Portland and San Antonio, and won the two that might have been considered their toughest games of the week, a Cat 3 at New Orleans and a BtoB "Rocky Road" at Chicago.  Reverse those and they might have a chance, because they would have inflicted losses on the teams they need to catch.  Now, they've lost the tie-breakers to both Portland and S.A. as well.  Congratulations to Lionel Hollins for a great coaching job, but it's time to be scouting lottery picks.

N.O. (0-3) did a nice job for a while after CP3 went down, but it couldn't last when the schedule got tougher.  The streak is now at four losses and six of the last seven, and they've dropped below .500.  This week was devasting, because two losses were Cat 2s at home (San Antonio and Memphis), while the other was a "Rocky Road" at San Antonio, and because two were to the Spurs, the team they probably had the best chance of catching before this week.  Time to start thinking about rebalancing the roster over the summer, since currently their two best players are both PGs.

The OKC Blunder (3-1) had a "taking care of business" week.  They started with a Cat 1 home win over the Kings, got destroyed in a Cat 4 BtoB at Denver, then got two Cat 3 "Banana Peels" successfully out of the way at the Clips and Sacramento.  No signs yet of a "young team facing playoff pressure" collapse.  If we're going to pass them, we almost certainly will have to take it from them by sweeping our two remaining games against them. 

Phoenix (3-1).  The Suns started with a Cat 2 home win over Denver (both teams BtoB), then got a Cat 3 win at the Clippers.  Next came the one blot on their week as they lost a Cat 2 BtoB at home to the Jazz, the team they want to catch in the standings.  Finally, they closed out with a Cat 1 win over the Pacers, who seem to be better at mixing it up and drawing Ts (for themselves and opponents) than actually winning basketball games.

S.A. (3-0) had a great week, and a disastrous one when Tony Parker went down.  Three quality wins against two of the teams chasing them, two against New Orleans and one against Memphis set them up well, especially since two of them were on the road.  This almost certainly guarantees their playoff spot, and would have put them in position to challenge for a better seed -- if they were healthy.  They still shouldn't be written off entirely, Manu is regaining form, Duncan keeps rolling, and Jefferson seems to really be producing for them now.  They'll hold their playoff spot, and still could finish as high as fifth or sixth in the seedings, they are a veteran team with quality role players and a coach who knows what he is doing.  We should beat them out, given the schedule, but they'll fight all the way.

Utah (2-1) had one of those weird weeks where every team they played was on a BtoB.  Despite that, they slipped on a "Banana Peel" at the Clips.  Then, they got a key win at Phoenix and got their revenge on LAC at home to close the week. 

Helped themselves:  Portland, Dallas, Denver, OKC, Phoenix, S.A.

Treading water: Utah.  

Hurt themselves:  L.A.

Sinking slowly beneath the waves:  Houston, Memphis.

Sinking rapidly with cement shoes fitted tightly:  N.O.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Our win at Miami turned back into a Cat 4, but our win at N.O. turned into a Cat 3, so no real change from recategorization.  We split our two Cat 4s this week, and now have fewer remaining than anyone excpet Dallas and Phoenix.  The reason the Spurs still have trouble is obvious -- they have ten remaining road games against winning teams, and most of them are against teams well over .500. 

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Houston, L.A., and Utah lost games in this category this week.  We have two Cat 3 games this coming week.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

OKC and Dallas have the most remaining tough home games, Utah the fewest.  After a horrible start to the season in this category, the Spurs are almost up to .500. 

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

Several teams flirted with a bad home loss this week, but only Houston consummated the deal. 

All Home Games

We nudge a little closer to parity in remaining home games with most of our rivals.  Our home record looks more like a borderline playoff or non-playoff team than a high seed.

All Away Games

Just as most teams have more remaining home games than we do, so they also have more remaining road games.  We're still two games over .500 on the road, with a chance to improve on that.  Only Dallas, OKC, and L.A. have better road records than we do.  Our road record looks more like a high seed than a borderline playoff team.  San Antonio and Utah still have a lot of road games left. 

All Games Against Winning Teams

Here's where we really see our chance to catch the Spurs.  While they are four ahead of us in the loss column, they have seven more games left against winning teams than we have.     

All Games Against Losing Teams

We are the only team with more games left against losing teams than against winning teams.   

Back to Back Games Remaining

Few back to backs left.  As with most parts of the schedule, the toughest road ahead belongs to San Antonio.  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Minor differences.  The Spurs won one of their Cat 4 BtoBs (at Memphis) this week.  The remaining ones are much tougher than Memphis.     

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

Dallas, and Denver get some help from playing tired opponents. 

The Projections

Here is what everyone wants:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but if we want to talk about stupid, you are actually reading this.

End of year rankings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa.  Last week's projection in parenthesis.

1. L.A.  58.7 wins (down from 61.4).   
2. Denver.  55.7 wins (up from 54.1 in 2nd).
3. Dallas.  53.9 wins (down from 54.1 in 3rd).
4. Utah.  52.3 wins (up from 52.1).
5. Phoenix.  50.5 wins (up from 50.4).  
6. OKC.  50.0 wins (up from 49.4).
7. S.A.  47.7 wins (up from 46.1 in 8th).
8. Portland.  47.4 wins (up from 46.8, down from 7th).
9. Memphis.  41.6 wins (up from 40.4 in 11th).
10. Houston.  41.4 wins (down from 41.9).
11. N.O.  40.6 wins (down from 42.3 in 9th).

Dallas keeps moving up, OKC cracks 50 in the projections, the Spurs make a big move up, and the chasing pack loses ground.  It's all about seedings now, and I'm not far from dropping the Hornets, at least, out of this analysis.

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Time to make a move.  A Cat 1 against the Kings, then back to back Cat 3 "Banana Peels" at Golden State and Sacramento (haven't we played against Carl Landry enough already this year?).  Finally, a Cat 2 at home against Toronto, who is on a BtoB.  
2. Dallas.  If they don't rack up their third straight undefeated week, it will be a shock, with a Cat 3 at Minnesota and then two "Cream Puffs" at home against the Nets and Knicks (NY on a BtoB).  Perhaps NJ can take another step towards beating history?  The schedule does get tougher for Dallas, so they would do well to take these seriously and not have a stupid loss. 
3. Denver.  On the road, with Cat 3 "Banana Peels" at Minnesota and New Orleans, then a Cat 4 at Memphis (BtoB for both teams). 
4. Houston.  Just two games, a Cat 3 at Washington and a Cat 1 at home against NJ (Nets on a BtoB).  Surely they will finally have a winning week with a schedule like that? 
5. L.A.  After three straight losses (four straight on the road) they go home for a Cat 2 against Toronto, then back out on the road for a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Phoenix.  Early, all their games were at home, now it is catching up to them. 
6. Memphis.  An interesting week for the Grizzlies as they try to somehow make a challenge.  They start with a Cat 1 at home against NJ, then go to Boston for a Cat 4 (Celtics on a BtoB).  Then, it's back home for another Cat 1 against NYK, and finally a Cat 2 against the Nuggets (both teams BtoB).  A winning week and perhaps they can dream, if someone ahead of them falters badly. 
7. N.O.  Home to G.S. for a Cat 1, then a Cat 4 at OKC.  A Cat 2 at home against Denver, then another Cat 4 at Phoenix.  Perhaps they can sweep all four.  Perhaps they can start deciding whether to use or trade their lottery pick. 
8. The "Blunder".  Three home games, Cat 1s against N.O. and N.J., then a big Cat 2 against Utah.
9. Phoenix.  Two home games, a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" home against L.A. (after five days off to prepare), then a Cat 1 against New Orleans.   
10. S.A.  A tough Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Cleveland, then three games against losing teams, a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" at home to the Knicks, a Cat 3 at Minnesota, then a Cat 1 at home against the Clippers (both teams BtoB).  This is their last real chance to make ground, they only have four games left against losing teams after this week.
11. Utah.   A tough road trip for the Jazz, four in six nights.   Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Chicago, a BtoB Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Detroit, then two more Cat 4s, Milwaukee and OKC.

GAME BY GAME HEAD TO HEAD -- GROUPING OF GAMES

(rehashed from prior posts)

I've listed all games here, but put them into six groups.  I have included as Elite the current top four teams in each conference:  Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta and Boston in the East, and L.A., Dallas, Denver, and Utah in the West.

Playoff Contenders include every non-Elite team within 2-3 games of .500 or better.  I still include New Orleans in this grouping.

If you aren't Elite or a Contender, you are a Bottom Feeder, ten or more games below .500.  Teams in the playoff hunt are going to beat Bottom Feeders at least 80% of the time at this point in the season.  You can't sleep on them, but you should get the W.

I've grouped the games in order of difficulty, as I perceive it.  Most difficult are the road games against the Elites.  Next are road games against Contenders, then home games against the Elites and home games against Contenders.  Finally, you have the games against Bottom Feeders, divided between home and away.

The second game of a back to back is in italics.  If the opponent is on a back to back, it is bold.  If both teams are playing the second of a back to back, it is both bold and italic.

PORTLAND VS. THE CHASING PACK

prior post

The more games a team has at the top of the chart, the more difficult their schedule.  We are weighted more heavily towards the bottom of the chart, as is Houston, though not quite to the same extent.  We have fewer remaining Elite games than any of the chasers, fewer remaining Contender games, and more remaining Bottom Feeder games.  We have fewer games and get more rest than all of them. 

Current Record

We are 37-28.  Memphis is 32-31, Houston 31-31, New Orleans 31-32.  We are four ahead of Memphis, 4 1/2 ahead of Houston, and 5 ahead of New Orleans.

Tie-Breaker

Vs. Houston.  2-2 in season series, this will be decided by conference record.  We are 23-15, they are 23-18.  If they make up enough ground to tie us, they might also make up enough to match or better our conference record.  This one is still an open question.  We have an opportunity this week, with three games against weaker Western teams, to strengthen our conference record.

Vs. New Orleans.  The series is tied 1-1, so the tie-breaker will be decided by the winner of our game in New Orleans.

Vs. Memphis.  The series finished 2-2, so the tie-breaker will be decided by conference record.  We are 23-15, they are 18-22.  It is highly unlikely they could catch us in the tie-breaker without passing us in the standings.  It is almost certainly safe to assume that they must not just catch us, but pass us.

Other Factors

If you are concerned about any of these teams catching us (I am not, barring another major injury), see the discussion in the prior post.

PORTLAND VS. THE TEAMS JUST AHEAD

Our schedule is much easier than San Antonio's, definitely easier than OKC's, and marginally easier than the Suns' schedule.

I've run out of time to do further analysis on this today, but the analysis in the prior post still stands.  Nothing substantive has changed in terms of tie-breakers.  The Spurs have improved their position somewhat, but in general, these four teams have won the games they were expected to win.  Phoenix lost at home to Utah, which improved our chances against them slightly.  We were not really expected to win at Denver, so that hasn't really set us back much, in terms of these teams.  It did mean we almost certainly lose the tie-breaker to the Nuggets, but that is hardly likely to be relevant.

A WORD ABOUT RECS

If you rec'd prior sched analysis posts, please unrec them if they are at the top in the recommended section.  There are some other excellent posts (for instance, storyteller's cap space analysis) which got bumped down by all the sched analysis posts.  As far as I know, the other schedule analysis posts are all rendered obsolete by this one, except where this links to them.