Game by Game -- Our Schedule vs The Teams Just Ahead

The Sched Ahead posts (and the Stupid Sched Projections) look at broad categories of games, which is somewhat helpful, but as we get to the short end of the season, it can be more useful to look at specifics.  This post intends to do precisely that, by showing side by side our remaining schedule vs. that of the teams just ahead of us in the playoff seedings hunt.

The Teams Behind (from yesterday)

Yesterday's post is already somewhat obsolete due to Houston and New Orleans losing home games.  We'll be in the playoffs, and this post is more relevant because it covers our chances of moving up in the seedings.

Douglast did most of the heavy lifting on this post, my spreadsheet provided some of the info, and the wording is my ramblings.

GROUPINGS

(this section complete duplicate of yesterday's post)

I've listed all games here, but grouped them into six categories.  The distinction between Elite and Contenders is somewhat arbitrary (is Utah elite?  What about OKC?), but still helpful.  There is a difference between playing at L.A. (or at Utah, for that matter) and playing at New Orleans.  I have included as Elite the current top four teams in each conference:  Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta and Boston in the East, and L.A., Dallas, Denver, and Utah in the West.

Playoff contenders include every team above .500 in the West that isn't in the Elite, and every non-Elite team within 2-3 games of .500 in the East.  These are the teams that are highly motivated to win and are not likely to be easy to beat. 

If you aren't still in contention for a playoff spot, you are a bottom feeder, ten or more games below .500.  In general, teams in the playoff hunt are going to beat bottom feeders at least 80% of the time at this point in the season.  You can't sleep on them, but you should get the W.

If you don't like my categorizations, just shift them a little bit.  The point here is to give a visual picture of the relative difficulty of the remaining games by grouping difficult games together and showing who has the most games near the top of the chart.

I've grouped the games in order of difficulty, as I perceive it.  Most difficult are the road games against the Elites.  Next are road games against Contenders, then home games against the Elites and home games against Contenders.  Finally, you have the games against bottom feeders, divided between home and away.

The second game of a back to back is in italics.  If the opponent is on a back to back, it is bold.  If both teams are playing the second of a back to back, it is both bold and italic.

SAN ANTONIO

If the Blazers are going to move up from the #8 seed, our first target is San Antonio. 

The Spurs have 7 road elite games to our three, four road contender games to our three, three home elite and three home contender games while we have two of each, and a total of 24 remaining games while we only have 18 -- no rest for the weary old men of San Antonio, who also have only 10 remaining home games but 14 on the road. 

Current Record

We have 37 wins and 27 losses.  San Antonio has 34 and 24.  Should the Spurs win all six of their extra games (unlikely, given the opposition), they would be three games ahead of us.  Should they split those six games, we would be tied.

Tie-breaker 

The first tie-breaker is division winner, which is going to be irrelevant in this case.  The second is head to head, and we won the season series 3-0.  We win the tie-breaker against the Spurs, which means they must finish ahead of us (not tied) to have a higher seed than us.  

Other Factor

San Antonio has had problems with injuries, but Tony Parker seems to be getting healthy.  Also, they have struggled all year to assimilate Richard Jefferson, but this seems to be working better right now with him coming off the bench.  These two factors would suggest that they are likely to be a better team the rest of the way than they have been so far.  On the other hand, they are not a young team, and do seem to get their share of minor injuries, and the schedule is very heavy, which makes minor injuries a bigger factor.  All in all, we should expect the Spurs to be better than they have been -- how much better remains to be seen.  Portland also should be better, with the return of Brandon Roy, the extra rest, and the addition of Camby. 

Summary

Given the top-heavy nature of the Spurs' schedule (5 more elite games than us, four of those on the road, and two more contender games than us), I put our chances of at least matching them at about 70% -- and we own the tie-breaker.  This is not just homerism.  Hollinger's system ranks our playoff chances as higher than theirs, projecting a most likely win total for each team of 48 wins.  It is by no means certain, but if I were a betting man, given even odds I would bet we finish ahead of the Spurs in the seeding battle.  Given the schedule, I would put it at about 40% that we finish ahead of them, and 30% that we finish tied with them and get the higher seed on the tie-breaker. 

OKLAHOMA CITY

The next possible target is the OKC "Blunder".  

As you can see, the "Blunder" has one more home Elite game than we do, and four more home Contender games.  They have one more road game and two less home games against bottom feeders than we do.  Of particular note here:  OKC is only 7-10 this year at home against teams that currently have a winning record, so it seems probable that those four extra home games against Contenders are likely to lead to at least one additional loss.

OKC has to play four more games than we do the rest of the year, which means less rest.

Current Record

We have 37 wins and 27 losses.  OKC has 36 and 24.  Should they win all four of the extra games, they would be three games ahead of us.  Should they split the four, they would be one game ahead of us.

Tie-breaker 

The first tie-breaker against division rivals is head to head competition.  The season series is tied 1-1 with two games left, one in OKC and one in Portland.  The game in OKC is in late March, and it is a back to back, with a game at New Orleans the night before.  The game in Portland is the penultimate game of the season, and it is a back to back for both teams.  We play at the L@kers the previous night, while they play at Golden State.  If either team sweeps the two games, they will win the tie-breaker. 

If we split the two games, the next tie-breaker is divisional record.  They are 7-3 while we are 6-6.  They have three remaining games against Denver and Utah, and it is certainly possible they could lose all three, which would take them to six losses in division, same as us (7 counting the losses we would inflict on each other if we split our head to head games).  However, their remaining divisional game is a home game against Minnesota, while we must go to Denver twice.  For us to catch them in division, we would have to either sweep both games in Denver or split them and see OKC lose to Minnesota.  Thus, it is extremely unlikely that we can even match them (let alone beat them) in the divisional tie-breaker, in the event of a series split.

In the unlikely event of a tie in final record, a series split, AND a divisional tie, the next tie-breaker is conference record.  We are 23-14 while they are 18-18, and we would win this tie-breaker.  The chances of this happening are virtually nil.  If we want to win a tie-breaker, we need to sweep the two remaining games against them.

Other Factors

Youth.  The vast majority of their team, including their key players, have never seen a playoff push before.  Their last three games against winning teams (not counting Toronto, who was without Bosh, Calderon, and for the second half without Hedo as well) were all losses, and the loss to Denver was painful.  How will they respond to the pressure?

The West.  Their record against the Western Conference has been far from stellar (18-18), and most of their remaining games (17 of 22) are against the West.

Streaks.  They have been a streaky team all year, and they've just come off of a very hot streak, which is what has propelled them up the standings.  Is it sustainable?  Their history this year would not suggest it is.  Other than that nine game streak, they are 27-24, just over .500.  They should be expected to play better than .500 ball the rest of the way, but probably not the .600 that their current record might suggest.

Improvement.  They have no particular reason to expect to play better the rest of the year than they have to date.  We do, due to Brandon's return and the addition of Marcus.

Summary

The importance of the head to head games against them cannot be over-stated.  To illustrate this, imagine those two games were the next two games each team played.  Were we to win both of them, we would have a record of 39-27, and they would be 36-26.  We would own the tie-breaker, and they would have to win three of their four extra games just to be tied with us -- and their schedule is more difficult than ours.

On the other hand, if we were to split those two games, we would be at 38-28, they would be 37-25, and they would own the tie-breaker.  They would only have to win one of the four to be even with us, and they would still then be ahead due to the tie-breaker.  If they were to sweep the two games, they could then lose all four of their extra games and still be ahead of us, and own the tie-breaker in addition.

If we sweep the two games, I would estimate, given the remaining schedule and the other factors, that we would have a 75-80% chance of finishing ahead of the "Blunder".  I give us a 30-40% chance of sweeping the two games.  If we split the two, I give us perhaps a 5-10% chance of catching them, due to the possibility that they drop games through youth and inexperience.  If they sweep us, the chance of catching them is virtually nil.

All told, I give us about a 30% chance, overall, of surpassing OKC for a higher seed.  This is not just homerism -- Hollinger's model, for what it is worth, gives us a 95% chance of making the playoffs and gives OKC a 96% chance, projecting them to 49 wins, one more than the 48 projected for us.  They are indisputably in a better position than we are, but the advantage is certainly not insurmountable.

Phoenix

Here it gets harder.  Phoenix is well ahead of us, and their schedule is not particularly difficult.  A case could be made that Utah is more reachable than Phoenix. 

An equal number of elite games, but they have two more of them at home than we do.  An equal number of road Contender games.  They do have two more Contender home games than we do, but they've done well in such games this year.  We also have an extra bottom feeder home game.

We have played one more game than they have, so there is no substantive difference in remaining rest days.

Current Record

We have 37 wins and 27 losses.  Phoenix has 39 and 24.  We are two behind in the win column and three behind in the loss column.  Should they win their extra game, they will be three full games ahead of us.

Tie-breaker 

Divisional title is going to be irrelevant, so the next tie-breaker is head to head.  We have won the season series (we lead 2-0 with one game left).  That means we only need to finish the season even with them to surpass them in the seedings.  

Other Factors

Phoenix Phlakiness.  They were dominant early, finishing November 14-3, with 11 of the 17 on the road.  In December, they went 7-9, with only 7 of the games on the road.  January was also 7-9, again with only 7 on the road.  In February (and March so far), they are 11-3, with more than half of the games (8) on the road.  So in November, December, February, and the first two games in March, they were an elite team, even though most of the games were on the road.  In December and January, they were below .500 despite a relatively easy schedule.  So which team will finish the season, the December/January weaklings or the bullies of November and February?

Amare.  He wasn't traded, and seems to have really responded well to that.  His play has been even better, IMO, since the trade deadline.

Defense.  They seem to have discovered it, at least sporadically.

Improvement.  Robin Lopez missed a lot of the season, but has come along nicely in recent games.  They are also getting Barbosa back from injury, which should help them.  They do not have as much reason to expect improvement as we do with Brandon and Camby, but they should expect some.

Summary

Our best hope is that the mid-season Suns start to "shine", rather than the ones that scorched the league in November and over the last month.  But even if that doesn't happen, we have two things that could give us hope.  First, we own the tie-breaker, so we only have to catch them, not pass them.  Second, we match up well against them, and we get one more chance to play them -- in Phoenix, but we already know we can win there even without Brandon.  If we win that game, adding a win to our record and a loss to theirs, and add in the fact that we only have to catch them, and the gap doesn't look so big anymore.

Chances of winning in Phoenix?  Perhaps 40%.  Chances of catching them if we do?  Perhaps 40%.  That nets out to about a 15% chance total.  Hollinger projects them to a probable 52 wins.  I believe that is near the upper range of what they will get, and they are more likely to get 50 or 51.  I put our ceiling at near 50, so I think our ceiling barely coincides with their probable range.

We have five very winnable games after this Sunday in Denver, before we go to Phoenix on March 21st.  Between now and then, they have six straight home games, but four of them are against quality competition (Utah twice, L@kers, Hornets).  If we can make up a game on them before we get to Phoenix, it will be all to play for.