Game by Game -- Our Schedule vs The Chasing Pack

The Sched Ahead posts (and the Stupid Sched Projections) look at broad categories of games, which is somewhat helpful, but as we get to the short end of the season, it can be more useful to look at specifics.  This post intends to do precisely that, by showing side by side our remaining schedule vs. that of the teams chasing us.

GROUPINGS

I've listed all games here, but grouped them into six categories.  The distinction between Elite and Contenders is somewhat arbitrary (is Utah elite?  What about OKC?), but still helpful.  There is a difference between playing at L.A. (or at Utah, for that matter) and playing at New Orleans.  I have included as Elite the current top four teams in each conference:  Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta and Boston in the East, and L.A., Dallas, Denver, and Utah in the West.

Playoff contenders include every team above .500 in the West that isn't in the Elite, and every non-Elite team within 2-3 games of .500 in the East.  These are the teams that are highly motivated to win and are not likely to be easy to beat. 

If you aren't still in contention for a playoff spot, you are a bottom feeder, ten or more games below .500.  In general, teams in the playoff hunt are going to beat bottom feeders at least 80% of the time at this point in the season.  You can't sleep on them, but you should get the W.

If you don't like my categorizations, just shift them a little bit.  The point here is to give a visual picture of the relative difficulty of the remaining games by grouping difficult games together and showing who has the most games near the top of the chart.

I've grouped the games in order of difficulty, as I perceive it.  Most difficult are the road games against the Elites.  Next are road games against Contenders, then home games against the Elites and home games against Contenders.  Finally, you have the games against bottom feeders, divided between home and away.

The second game of a back to back is in italics.  If the opponent is on a back to back, it is bold.  If both teams are playing the second of a back to back, it is both bold and italic.

HOUSTON

If the Blazers are going to be knocked out of the playoffs, it will probably be Houston that does it. 

Houston has only one road elite game, while we have three, but their schedule isn't any easier than ours.  In total road games against Elites and Contenders, we have the same number as they do, and they have one more back to back.  They have two more Elites at home than we do, and one more Contender.  They also play one more Bottom Feeder than we do, which is a very slight advantage for them, but they have two more on the road than we do, and three of their bottom feeder games are on a back to back, so they are more likely to lose to a bottom feeder than we are.

They have four more games than we do, so we get more rest and practice time than they do the rest of the way.

Current Record

We have 36 wins and 27 losses.  Houston has 30 and 29.  We are six ahead in the win column and two ahead in the loss column, for a four game advantage overall.  Should Houston manage to win all four of their extra games (unlikely, they are a .500 team, remember), they would still be two games behind us.

Tie-breaker 

The first tie-breaker is division winner, Houston won't win their division, and if we manage to win ours somehow, Houston certainly won't be tied with us, so we can treat that as irrelevant.  The second is head to head, and the season series is tied 2-2.  The third tie-breaker is divisional record for intra-division rivals, and Houston is in a different division.  The fourth is conference record, and this is likely the decider.  

We are 23 and 14 in conference, while Houston is 22 and 17.  Can Houston make up that conference deficit?  Of course.  But if they are to catch us, it is probably going to be in part because they sweep their five games against Eastern bottom feeders, which won't help them in-conference at all.  In all probability, we win the tie-breaker based on conference record.  We do have more remaining games against Western elites than they do, however, and if they are to make up the four game deficit, they will almost certainly gain some ground in conference record as well.  I put it at about 50/50 as to who has the best conference record if we end up tied.

Other Factor

Houston has added Kevin Martin, but traded away Carl Landry.  Once they fully assimilate Martin, this is likely to make them marginally better, but the loss of Landry is certainly not insignificant -- this was primarily a trade for the future for Houston.  Yet, it is certainly possible they will play better ball over the next six weeks than they have to date.  On the other hand, we have had Brandon Roy return from injury, and have added Marcus Camby while losing Steve Blake.  In all probability, we have improved more from where we were a month ago than Houston has.  Recent transactions are not likely to have helped Houston significantly more than we have been helped.

Summary

Chances of Houston making up more than a game on us, given the schedule?  Less than 40%, in my opinion.  Chances of them making up a four game deficit?  Probably less than 10%.  Chances of them making up a four game deficit AND winning the tie-breaker, or actually passing us in the standings so they don't need the tie-breaker?  Probably less than 5%.

NEW ORLEANS

The next most likely team to catch us is New Orleans.  This is not because they are significantly ahead of Memphis, or have a particularly easier schedule, but because of the Chris Paul factor.  Before he got hurt, they had really started to play good ball, and if they can stay in reach until his return, they could potentially make a nice run.  Last week and this have been pretty brutal for them as far as the schedule, though, and it is showing in the standings -- they are digging a pretty deep hole right now.

As you can see, New Orleans has one fewer road game but three more home games against Elites, with two more road games and one more home game against playoff contenders.  In other words, they have many more difficult games remaining than we do.  Conversely, they have three fewer games against bottom feeders.  Their schedule is much, much more difficult than ours, though they do have one less back to back than we do, and only have to play two more games than we do the rest of the way, unlike Houston.  They do have a chance to make up a game if they can beat us in New Orleans, something the other teams don't have going for them -- Houston and Memphis are completely at the mercy of other teams helping them.

Current Record

We have 36 wins and 27 losses.  New Orleans has 31 and 30.  We are five ahead in the win column and three ahead in the loss column, for a four game advantage overall.  Should New Orleans manage to win bothof their extra games (unlikely given the competition), they would still be three games behind us.

Tie-breaker 

The first tie-breaker is division winner, which is irrelevant.  The second is head to head, and the season series is tied 1-1 with one game left, in New Orleans.  It is probably impossible for them to catch us without winning that game, so we should assume that they would win the tie-breaker.  

Other Factor

New Orleans has seen huge improvements from their rookie guards with the extra playing time while Chris Paul is out, and this could continue to benefit them when he returns.  They can run a quality three man rotation in the backcourt and do a lot of damage, and they are pretty solid in the front court, too.  The return of Chris Paul should definitely help them, and it is easy to see New Orleans playing much better ball.  Whether this will be enough to overcome the difficulty of their schedule is another question.  Whether it will be enough to counteract the return of Brandon Roy and the addition of Marcus Camby also remains to be seen.

Summary

Chances of the Hornets making up any ground on us, given the schedule, and the fact that Chris Paul is still out?  Less than 20%, in my opinion.  Chances of them making up a four game deficit?  Probably less than 2%. 

Memphis

Memphis is almost certainly done.  Their remaining schedule is much, much tougher than ours.  Their best hope is that San Antonio stumbles on a very difficult schedule, and that they win their remaining two games against the Spurs.  That would significantly reduce their deficit while also giving them the tie-breaker.

It's a sorry tale if you are a Memphis fan hoping to catch Portland.  They have one more road game than us against the Elite, three more road games against playoff contenders, and two more home games against playoff contenders.  They have six games against bottom feeders to our nine games.

Current Record

We have 36 wins and 27 losses.  Memphis has 30 and 30.  We are six ahead in the win column and three ahead in the loss column, for a four and a half game advantage overall.  Should New Orleans Memphis manage to win all three of their extra games (unlikely), they would still be three games behind us.

Tie-breaker 

The season series ended tied 2-2.  The next relevant tie-breaker is conference record, and ours is 23-14, while theirs is 17-21.  They will not win the tie-breaker unless we collapse so badly (and they play so well) that they surpass us in the standings anyway.  

Other Factor

We have Brandon back now and have added Marcus.  They have no reason to expect their team to be any better than it has been.  Just one more reason why they aren't catching us.

Summary

Chances of the Grizzlies making up any ground on us, given the schedule?  Less than 20%, in my opinion.  Chances of them not only catching us, but passing us, making up a full five games?  Probably less than 0.5%. 

I'll try to do a similar comparison with San Antonio and OKC in the next couple of days.