Vilgax, risk assessment, and the long term contract

In my latest Fan Post, "Evaluated At The End Of The Season" I wrote that guaranteed, long term contracts make a man soft, and I was impressed by the responses from the community. Sure, there was the guy who thought that I was one man, Obama death panel, and the requisite hyperboloator who thought I was advocating the idea that the entire team should play on 10 day contracts, and by extension, that Summer Leaguers should play their games between shifts at Mr. Smoothie's, still, I was impressed with the discourse.

The bottom line is that life offers very few certainties.  One thing I'd certainly bet on, however, is that every NBA team has ended up regretting at least one long term signing, and probably more than one. The team guarantees the big time cash, and the player does whatever it is that he does. The performance of the player, the effort, the cooperation, the on and off court behavior, and the grace with which he carries the fortune that has been bestowed upon him, it's the classic buyer beware scenario (see: the frog and the scorpion). The compensation is guaranteed, health and commitment to conditioning of the player is not. The contract is pretty much iron clad, and the club is stuck w/ what the player decides to give. Sure, the team can trade the contract, but as the Trail Blazers know all too well, paying Steve Francis $20 million not to play amounted to a poor return on their investment in The Hoops Family Cock Fighting Syndicate. One could refer to it as the price of doing business, but I see it as a problem that could be, and will be, eliminated.

As a fans of the home team, we have our collective spirits crushed when valuable cap space is absorbed by substandard performers- guys who take the money and give little in return. Take Darius Miles, for example, even after every last dime was gifted rather that earned, he still signed with Memphis (which was his right, at least technically). This was not only a cap buster, but also a breach of loyalty, a gross example of absolute selfishness, and lack of  integrity, in the extreme. You can argue this point, but Darius knows. We all know when we take more than we give.

You see, PA's money is really important to us, the fans, and I would argue that he is getting more careful with it every day. The Moneyball paradigm, where low priced assets play huge roles (see Rudy, Nic & perhaps Dante as well), is in play. Working the draft from the bottom of the first round down is so much more efficient than the free agent market. Phoenix has a broken business model. So does NY. Portland's strategy, with KP's instincts in play, looks to have legs. It's true that the trade market becomes difficult because these players make so little money(what with the salary matching +/- 10%), but the bottom line is that these role players make so little money (for a professional athlete, anyway). It's good for management. It's good for fans. And there's no crying for these athletes. They make a very nice living within the confines of the rookie contract structure. It's a good deal for everyone.

KP has adjusted. He knows exactly what he's doing. He looks for college grads who are mature. Foremost, he gets players that can actually play, and play right now, not 19 year-old phenoms who might, if they don't get ruined, or addicted, maybe, hopefully end up being great someday, for someone. They play. They develop. And maybe they get paid here, eventually, or maybe they move on. It's about the needs of the team. Great coaching, star players, a steady stream of young, talented role players, roster flexibility, and the cap management required to bring in a veteran piece, winning isn't something that happens on accident, and it takes quite a structure to sustain excellence over a prolonged period. That is Portland's path, and it's solid work because the lottery is no place to be.

Pritch also has a taste for the exotic. His low budget forays into Europe has produced some beautiful fruit.  If Victor Claver is awesome as well, public deification just might be the reasonable expectation. So, the Trail Blazers are resurrected in fine time, absolutely competitive at this moment, and well on their way to the promised land.  The problem is, however, that every team has not the same level of organization.

Detroit spent a ton of money on last years free agant class. Ben Gordon & Charlie Villanueva have led a solid core of players, Rodney Stuckey, Rip Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince, to 23 wins so far this season. The Celtics have gotten a mere shell of what Sheed used to be, and for 3 years. Toronto (and yes, we probably got lucky here) did not improve with their $50 million investment in Hedo. Oddly, or perhaps as matter of incredible foresight, the Blazers low budget pick up (Andre Miller) was probably the best of them all, and certainly for the dollar.

Which brings us to the Lock Out. It's been written that life offers very few certainties. Another thing for certain: There Will Be A Lock Out. A year from now, we won't be talking about Tom Penn. We might not even be talking much about the playoffs. We will be talking CBA, and the bad management teams that gave too much good money to players who weren't good enough, or committed enough, to earn it. More than anything, owners will look to make dramatic changes in order to protect themselves from themselves, and we will be the ones that pay.

At least I'll have my wife, and I'll have my son, and we'll be watching Ben 10 reruns. It won't matter one lick that we won't have Comcast.