PG Paradise?
I don't know if you were keeping track, but the just-completed five-game road trip included nearly every point guard that's ever been rumored to be available in connection to the Blazers. Well, perhaps "every" is an exaggeration. People talk about point guards a lot. But we certainly witnessed a supposedly-available-point-guard tour de force in the last week. To wit:
New Jersey--Devin Harris
Of all of the names supposedly on the block I tend to believe this one the least. People assume that by virtue of their likely-single-digit win total this year New Jersey has to make major moves. Maybe so, but it makes no sense to revamp a completely awful team by trading away one of the two or three players who has shown they can be something more than completely awful. You don't get better by trading away your best players, but your worst. But Harris has had a rough season. I can't imagine he's all that happy in New Jersey. And his contract is certainly reasonable enough to acquire.
Toronto-- Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack
The Raptors have two pretty good point guards. Jack is really reasonably priced for a starter. Calderon is quite expensive for a reserve. It may make sense to keep both. On the other hand Toronto may have needs great enough to consider parting with one or the other. Calderon was a hot topic last off-season. Jack hasn't been brought up, but wouldn't the irony be delicious?
Chicago--Kirk Hinrich
No name was bandied about more last summer. He's older than the other prospects, he's expensive-ish, but he brings qualities the Blazers could use.
Minnesota--Ramon Sessions
If you count the eventually-incoming Ricky Rubio Minnesota has acquired three point guards in the last year. Each probably merits playing time. Only two, at most, can get it. Minnesota's roster also has more holes than Mill Lacs Lake in January. (They ice fish, you see...) Jonny Flynn is not going anywhere but chances are good the 'Wolves would be willing to part with Sessions. Would they be willing to trade the rights to a tardy Rubio? Probably not. But you never know. Maybe if the offer was sweet enough? We should probably leave his name out though.
Memphis--Mike Conley Jr.
Personally I have a hard time seeing this one as well. Lionel Hollins seems to like him. He's a starter on a team without much depth. You'd have to replace him with a starter at least. But his name has been bandied about so we'll include him on the list.
At least five of those six names have generated interest from Blazer fans recently. So I'm going to throw open the question today: Having seen these guys play, if I told you I could swing a trade this summer that did not involve the Big Three or Nic Batum and I could get you one of these guards, would you want any of them or do you prefer the guards we have already to these candidates? Let's not go into specific cost here. Assume they'd be replacing one of our current point guards at least...could be Miller or Bayless. In most cases you'd be losing another player as well but you might also get another player back. I'm pretty sure we can find deals that would be attractive to both sides including these players. Given that, would you consider taking a stab at one of these guys?
Comment below. Keep it reasonable and enjoy!
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
P.S. A request: Please take the question and debate for what they're worth. It's a theoretical discussion of pros and cons. Let's enjoy it for what it is. To that end, let me head off two types of comments at the pass.
One, it's not that helpful hearing from fans of the teams mentioned above saying, "Hey! My guy's not available, you jerk! Or at least not for anything short of Brandon Roy!!!" I have stated clearly that we're talking about rumors which have made the rounds recently. They may not be accurate rumors. The conversation is still interesting. Now, if you're a fan of another team who wants to jump in and discuss pros and cons of these guys and of their Blazer counterparts, by all means join in! But we already know that any deal is unlikely, especially among the more coveted of these players.
Two, I am really not interested in hearing from Blazer fans calling me or anyone else a traitor for even considering moving any of our players, nor that I don't value our point guards. For one thing I just said this discussion is theoretical, brought about by the serendipity of seeing all of these rumored guards in a week. Second, the option is clearly offered to say that our own point guards are preferable to any of the names listed. If you want to make that argument give us some reasons why...reasons beyond, "I am so sick of you guys hating on our players!" That, in case you are wondering, does not say a thing about the value of our guards. Third, I guarantee you Kevin Pritchard and Tom Penn and the scouts and coaches have these discussions on a regular basis. They wouldn't be doing their jobs if they didn't. That being the case, it's OK for us to talk about it too.
--Dave
316 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Hinrich
Long story short – His playing style fits next to Roy in our offense and he can defend. I’m certain that others will elaborate more but I think he would be the best fit on the team we have right now.
Official Adrian Wojnarowski Hater.
The Ardent Optimist.
With this said
I’ve got no clue how we make a trade to get him here.
Official Adrian Wojnarowski Hater.
The Ardent Optimist.
Simple, almost
We make an oversize offer for Utah power forward Paul Millsap to be our backup power forward, forcing Utah to match … which would then require them to trade Carlos Boozer in a move to get back under the lux tax threshold. The Bulls would be the most likely place for Boozer to go, and Portland could facilitate that by taking in Kirk Hinrich from them and sending Utah expiring contracts.
At least, I bet it seemed simple enough to KP at the time. We’ll never know, but I bet it almost worked.
Scott Evil: Why don’t you just kill him?
Dr. Evil: I have an even better idea. I’m going to place him in an easily escapable situation involving an overly elaborate and exotic death.
Hinrich's TS% is .489
Why would you trade for a guy with that TS% and a PER of 11, when you have Bayless with a PER of 15.6 and a TS% of .535?
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
Well, he's having a terrible year offensively. Whether the decline is permanent it's hard to say, but last season his TS% was .55 or so.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
hinirch hasn't been good in a while
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Mar 2, 2010 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
I've never understood the obsession with Hinrich.
I’ve asked repeatedly but never really gotten a good answer. Playing well with Roy is a start.
by Blazersaurus on Mar 2, 2010 10:49 PM PST up reply actions
Only 2 of those guys have any appeal to me at all
Harris and Hinrich. Since I’m on my iphone, I won’t go into why I could care less about the other guys.
Hinrich. I was pretty high on him over the summer. Something of a Blake plus, especially on defense. Now I’m not as excited about him. Maybe it’s that I like what Dre is doing, and Dre is cheaper, and not much older. I’d probably take Hinrich, but I wouldn’t give up much to get him. Definitely not Bayless. Part of the appeal over the summer was that it was assumed he’d be easy to get (Blake and Trout).
Harris. His was the only name I heard over the summer that made me genuinely excited. Of all the names floated, he was the only one who is a great pg, reasonably young, and actually possible (though still difficult) to acquire. It’s hard to say what this year has done for his availability. He’s struggled a bit, and he’s on an historically bad team. If the Nets decide to cut him loose (do it Kiki!), I would love to get him. He’s one of the few somewhat realistic guys I’d let Bayless (and obviously others) go for.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Mar 2, 2010 1:15 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I forgot to add
If we got Harris, I imagine we’d have to give up Rex, and we’d want to give up Dre to avoid awkward starter/backup issues. In which case, one could make a very strong case for signing Blake as the backup with our MLE.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Mar 2, 2010 1:20 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Oops
I didn’t realize Dre was 5 years older than Hinrich. I was thinking it was more like 2 or 3.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Mar 2, 2010 1:52 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Devin harris for whatever it takes, he could help us kill the lakers, i dunno bout his d
but hopefully greg and joel can make up for any lacking there.
Yeah, Harris would be the next upgrade
over Miller, and younger to last longer. I like Calderon as well, if Rudy is going to stay but again you have to replace Miller with these guys, not keep them both. Part of the reason that it made sense to trade Blake was to hand the keys to Miller as the starting PG, so there was no longer a question.
"Oh, and Ted, give my love to the Princesses. Ted2: Who? Ted: You'll see." - Ted, to himself on his and Bill's excellent adventure.
My mea culpa
This seems as good a place as any to admit that I have been wrong about Andre much of the year. He has found the pace and pulse of the team and is very effective. I am glad we were able to sign him this year and I hope we can keep him for all three years. None of the mentioned point guards except Hinrich can bring what Andre brings as I see it.
As for Jerryd, he is improving to me and as all young point guards, needs time to season. Will he be ready for a deep playoff run next year or the following year? That seems the primary concern in this summer’s personnel changes. I hope he gets that chance here. Learning from Andre is a nice opportunity for him.
I think Ricky is an interesting possibility. If Minnesota would take Martell for Ricky’s rights and a player we can use short term or buy out that investment might be intriguing. Ricky might not want to come to Minnesota (or Portland) so that situation is an unknown to me.
The others have little appeal. Mostly not outside shooters are they?
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
I doubt Ricky is going to go from best player outside of NBA to Webster trade bait just in one season
Ricky would probably cost us at least Batum level talent. Maybe we can get him for Bayless and Webster, but I find it highly unlikely.
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
there is a rumor that Rubio is on his way to Minnesota
but…..there isn’t a lot of leverage on Minnesota’s side – reducing Rubio’s trade value.
The guy is so young + European. I just don’t think he would be a transcendental talent in less than three years…
Ricky right now isn’t anywhere close to Batum’s trade value (not on my trade board, anyhow).
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 2, 2010 1:35 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agree with this 100%
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
That was my thinking as well
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
If it takes Batum to get any of them forget about it.
If Rudy & Bayless can get you Devin Harris you jump on it. Conley is interesting but I don’t see it happening.I have a feeling K.P. will surprise us all with what he does this summer but Batum goes nowhere IMO.
Allen Iverson should decline his allstar spot!
-Charles Barkley-
Bayless' TS% is already better than Harris and it is only going to improve.
Thanks for your kind response below. I agree with your revised comment: Rudy and Bayless is too much for Harris. Harris isn’t great from 3, isn’t great on defense, and isn’t very efficient.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Ricky said he would be glad going to Portland.
He didn´t want to go to Memphis neither to Minnesota.
Yes, but would he
do you think, if we traded Rudy to get him?
I can see it being appealing to go where Rudy is, but perhaps not going to Portland if Rudy weren’t there.
I actually don’t want Ricky in this system. I don’t think it would utilize his talents enough to justify the cost we would have to pay to get him.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I agree in everything you said.
Although Rudy would improve our pick and roll and our defense, and he´s becoming a very good three point shooter when he´s open, his passing ability just doesn´t fit.
That sounds like good news for KP
I just don’t think his price is so high if he refuses to go to Minnesota.
Rudy is too high. Ricky is unproven and pretty light weight for the NBA. That is why I proposed Martell. Minnesota would definitely get an upgrade and a starter in a position they need. Martell was a comparable lottery pick (though taken too high) so the fans might like it as well. And there is always $3M to tip the deal for the owner. We take a bad contract back and they get an established player and $$$.
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
I think Martell would thrive in the right environment
so a trade like this may even favor the Wolves. May sound like heresy, but Martell has shown that he has #6 talent, just not #6 consistency. Make him the top wing, and he is less of a risk to produce than Rubio.
I suspect we'd have to give up more
Perhaps our first round pick, or something. Though to match salaries, we’d have to take a player back, so maybe if it let them dump a bad contract….
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Harris, maybe - but all have minor plusses
it would help if he shot better. Hinrich seems to have overcome the ills that plagued him early. Calderon seems to fit the idea of a prolific scorer at the one position more scoring seems to fit…
FWIW, Harris would be eminently available depending on lottery results….
Harris mostly because of his speed and reputation of being able to bring it defensively. He seems to be Bayless with even more quickness but less strength. I don’t think Harris complements Bayless very well (you wouldn’t need both on the same roster)…..
Calderon/Bayless works…..Hinrich/Bayless works…..Sessions/Bayless??? not so much….
Some sort of Martell/Rubio exchange would appear to fit both clubs….I think Rubio/Bayless works too….
Somehow, I can’t wrap my brain around any of these guys platooning with Miller – except maybe Hinrich
I do wonder...
How well the timeline of Bayless’ progression aligns with the Blazers’ own. I believe in him, but if he was dealt for an immediate contributor, I wouldn’t be terribly upset. PG speculation is a little different now than it was last summer.
If Bayless improves as much next year as he did this year, he would be an All-Star
That isn’t likely to happen that quickly, but the general point remains: Bayless has a ton of room to grow and a ton of talent to do it.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 10:39 AM PST up reply actions
LOL, are you serious?
If Bayless improves as much next year as hie did this year, he still wouldn’t even start for the Blazers, let alone be an All-Star. Just think how much Bayless would need to improve in several areas just to be better than Miller, and Miller didn’t get any consideration whatsoever (fan voting or coach voting) as an All-Star.
I firmly believe that Bayless and Rudy don’t have a future with the Blazers, and that they will be used as trade material before next season starts.
I'd be shocked if Bayless were traded
Unless it were as part of a package to get a legit star.
Clearly ULC and I disagree with you about where Rex is right now. That’s ok. However, I think Pritchard agrees with us about Bayless’ future, and he’s the guy making the decisions.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
Bayless' PER jumped from 8.2 to 15.6 and his TS% jumped from .487 to .535
If he made similar improvements next year his PER would be 23 and his TS% would be .582, that would put his in Chris Paul and Steve Nash territory. His per 36 minute scoring numbers jumped from 12.6 to 18.2. If they jumped by the same amount next season he would be averagind 24 + and would be outscoring Roy. He would definitely be an All-Star.
Bayless is a lot closer than you and a lot of other folks seem to realize. He is already the the teams second best scoring option on a per 36 minute basis. The primary thing he lacks is minutes and experience.
Care to explain why you think that this is laughable?
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
It's laughable
because the type of improvement you saw between his rookie year and this year is not linear. Same with your other extrapolated numbers. You say he’s already the team’s second best scoring option on a per 36 minute basis, but I’d guarantee you he wouldn’t live up to it if he actually played 36 minutes per game. You really think if he played the same minutes, that he’d be outscoring LMA, Batum, Rudy and a healthy Oden? Not to mention scoring isn’t the only important part of being a good basketball player. In fact, it’s really the only thing Bayless does well.
I think Rex is a fine player, and I agree that he wouldn’t be traded unless it’s for something really good. But comparing him to Steve Nash or Chris Paul? Please. More like Jarrett Jack II, which is still a starter on an NBA team, which isn’t bad. But All-Star? You seriously believe he is going to get the nod over Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Aaron Brooks, Chauncey Billups, Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd or Andre Miller? He might squeak by Russell Westbrook some day, or maybe after half of those guys retire, but next year? Dream on.
Of coarse, it isn't linear. I said so in my original comment
My point stands. Bayless has come a very long way in a very short time and there is substantial and substantive reasons to expect that his improvement will continue.
As I said in my main post below, the two areas that Bayless needs to improve in, outside shooting and decision making, are exactly the areas where young PGs are most likely to improve with experience.
I went to Basketball Reference and compared Bayless’ stats with other first and second year PGs who had similar stats. I came up with about 25 players who have had as good of second seasons as Bayless in the past twenty years. Almost every single one went on to be at least a solid, multi-year starter and at least half had at least one All-Star appearance.
Like I said. Bayless is a heck of a lot closer than you and a lot of others seem to recognize. He isn’t likely to make that jump in a single season, but I don’t think it is at all unreasonable, or laughable, to think that he may get there over the next several seasons.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
Andre Miller
is superior to every one mentioned in the feature.
Get over it.
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
by Blazin' on Mar 2, 2010 1:37 AM PST reply actions 5 recs
As much as I dislike Miller
I think it saying Blazin’ has “no brain” for writing that probably violates the site rules.
at least now in garbage time we call all yell "It’s TIME DIENER!" - TheTinfoil
by tominhawaii on Mar 2, 2010 2:56 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
people used to say "no brainer" all the time about the Oden draft.
oh, wait….
Re-sign Travis Outlaw !
But how long-term is he really?
He’s better today. But what about next year? The year after? The year after that? The answer is that we don’t really know, but history shows that people slow down as they age.
Wearing the black band for Jarrett Jack, Ime Udoka, Fred Jones, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye, Luke Schenscher, Shavlik Randolph, James Jones, Josh McRoberts, Steven Hill, Jarron Collins, Michael Ruffin, Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. Sacrificed to the unmerciful god of progress.
I think the answer is becoming clearer
“Tone said yesterday that the Blazer coaches are already talking about developing Batum into a point forward. If this is successful, there may be no need to “replace” Miller in a year or two with a younger starting PG
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
But how many more,
“small, quick " pg’s will the Blazers have burned through in a couple of years?
I’m dizzy from the merry go round already.
Til the wheels fall off.... Marcus Camby
Go Blazers !!
KP and Paul collect them
I’m not saying the 55th pick of last year’s draft was “too important” not to use on Mills (who very well could’ve been the BPA) but I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Patty goes the way of Taurean Green, et al. That was a real head-scratcher, but I’ve long suspected a disconnect between the scouting department and the coaching staff when it comes to which players are acquired to fit what style of play. Sergio and Mills are just the most-glaring examples
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Don't you have to write off this year from injury?
Mills will have opportunity to show in summer league and training camp just like he would have last year I would suppose. The Blazers may need the roster spot earlier from trades or draft picks but otherwise he still has some time available to show his value. Same for Travis except he is a veteran who may get a few opportunities to show this year what he can do.
In any event the injury seems to make the pick choice value “indeterminate” so far.
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
if there's a role for Mills in Portland
it would be the kind of role that Steve Kerr, Craig Hodges and John Paxson played for the Bulls alongside Jordan. There’s no doubt that Patty can stroke it, and he would be useful as an “outlet” shooter for Roy/Batum/Oden in the future
Having said that, I suspect Mills will be a defensive liability because of his size, and I’ve observed that Nate prefers his PGs to be tall and/or strong so they can fight through picks and not be posted up regularly
Bayless is better-suited for the role I mentioned above next to Brandon, and Jerryd can provide the “spark” off the bench that Mills would hypothetically give the team. So, I don’t see a long-term fit for Mills in a Blazer uniform
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yes, we need scouting and coaching to be complementary, not incompatible
I’m pretty happy with the Blazers scouting and talent acquisition. I really hope we get our act together ASAP.
Re-sign Travis Outlaw !
Miller has his moments
but if your defense and outside shooting is so poor you can’t play in crunch time over Bayless, then you are either under-appreciated by the coaching staff or your weaknesses outweigh your strengths…
or Bayless is going to be very good with Roy......
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 10:39 AM PST up reply actions
you'll have to convince Nate of that
because the two of them have played very rarely in the same backcourt, without Miller/Blake also being on the floor. That’s what made Nate’s decision to replace Miller with Bayless down the stretch the other night was so remarkable
check the stats, how many floor minutes have Roy and Bayless been on the the court at the same time without another Blazer PG. I’m guessing it’s less than 200 minutes in 2 years
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Totally agree...and rec.
The only guy that I would consider would be Harris and we would likely have to trade ‘Dre for that to happen or work. Harris is still pretty young which is his upside. His downside is that he isn’t the facilitator that ‘Dre is. I am just not sure I’d want to give up the greater assists that ‘Dre provides for the more scoring that Harris provides. It’s probably a toss up on the defensive end…
We'll miss you #2 & #25!
Defensively, Harris >> Dre
Andre is a better facilitator, though perhaps Harris would be better than he is if he actually had someone to facilitate.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Mille Lacs Lake - Walleye capital of the world!
Nice way to work in that reference Dave.
Harris, Hinrich, then . . . . Rubio? And I would be OK with giving up Bayless if that is what it took. If we also lose Miller then we’ll need a decent backup (Mills hasn’t proven anything).
Personally, I think we need someone who can run the point in a fairly traditional way. I know a lot of people like to say Brandon will just take care of it but that doesn’t give us much diversity and gets us into trouble if Roy is out (which seems prone to happening). Decent PG D and 3-pt shooting are the other main factors but I’d still take playmaking first. Maybe that means I should pick Calderon . . . can’t quite bring myself to do it. Or maybe that means we already have the guy in Andre Miller.
put a body on 'em
and if you really want to go walleye fishing in minnesota
go further north – up to Leech Lake or Lake Winnebigoshish.
put a body on 'em
Or the Boundary Waters ...
… if you don’t mind carrying your canoe about as often as you ride in it.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Miller is doing pretty well
He looked pretty bad at the start of the year, but has been a major player for us the rest of the year. He’s a consumate veteran playmaker. Sessions could possibly have been similar for us, but not as good.
Harris would be great ahem if he were realistically available. Actually, any of the PGs mentioned would probably be pretty good for us, in different ways. But for this year I like Miller.
Harris is available
if they win the lottery and pick John Wall.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Unless they decide to do the unheard of
and trade the #1 pick, but that would probably cost us Nic and Rudy.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Overvaluing Harris just a bit?
There aren’t many PG’s worth both Nic and Rudy. In fact, I can think of only 2 (Williams and CP3 – and Nic and Rudy aren’t enough to get either).
Everyone else is either too old or a bad fit, relative to the cost.
He said the no. 1 pick would cost us Nic and Rudy.
And I don’t think they would even do that. It would be PR suicide to trade John Wall.
On the other hand, Harris could probably be had for something like Webster, Miller and a pick or two, a trade that would be a win/win for both teams.
Correct
That is what I said, and I would be surprised if they did it, unless Wall threatened to go to Europe or something rather than play for them.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Stand pat
In my comment i am making the following assumptions. Andre Miller is my man at starting point guard. Second, that there are only enough backup minutes for two players at the 1-3. Bayless, Webster and Fernandez have the next two seasons (and playoffs) to prove themselves and It is a highly unlikely scenario that all three prove to be better than the guards mentioned above. For the price and potential I would stick with all three and see if any of them can become consistent defenders and scorers. Last year in the playoffs Outlaw, Blake, Rodriguez and Frye played themselves off the team. This year the roster is even leaner. In the next two post seasons if two out of the three (or god forbid all three) lay triumphant eggs then it is time to add Hinrich.
by Gregoriun on Mar 2, 2010 1:41 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I don't think Travis or Steve played themselves off the team.
They were sacrificed for a need of a Center.
In fact, I think at least Steve will be re-signed by Portland next summer as a back-up guard. That would mean dropping our newly signed guard and probably JBay since he is not a good fit at PG. That would leave Rudy backing up BRoy exclusively. I also think we will include Marty in a trade with JBay for an experienced SF, so as to keep Camby as a back-up big.
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 1:54 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I dont want to over complicate this but here it goes. Miller, Camby > Blake, Outlaw.
As for where Blake fits in the Bayless, Fernandez, Webster discussion, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Regardless, not one of them has shown me enough in the playoffs to make me happy. And quite frankly, I think that Aaron Brooks’ slaying of Steve Blake is the reason he he is Clipper and Bayless, Fernandez and Webster are still Blazers.
Take away the injuries
to Greg and Joel, and Travis and Steve would almost certainly still be on this team. They didn’t play themselves off of the team in the playoffs.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
perhaps not
but they did make themselves “more expendable” with their shakey performances against the Rockets. Adding Miller made Blake less necessary, and Hedo was KP’s original FA target, which prompted rumors that Travis was on his way to Memphis last summer
The drafting of Pendy and Ferno were also an indictment re: Outlaw’s future in PDX
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Possibility of truth
Can you say it was because of bad play or a demand for a Mars paycheck.
Again I think it was because we needed an additional ball handler and scorer besides BRoy, had nothing to do with Travis or Steve’s poor play in the play-offs. This is a team and everybody on the team is effected therefore how can you say it was their bad. Steve’s assist was down because no one could make a shot. Travis shots was down because IMO he was having play-off anxiety. Both are fixable.
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
Steve’s assist was down because no one could make a shot. Travis shots was down because IMO he was having play-off anxiety. Both are fixable.
You mean you hope both are fixable. Not that it’s Portland’s concern, anymore
After the Houston series we can easily see what the Blazer priorities were based on the players they pursued in free agency. If Blake or Outlaw had played better against the Rockets, KP’s sights would have shifted to other FA targets. After the series it was clear that Portland needed a playmaker/scorer to supplement Roy, and Greg Oden needed someone who could get him the ball down low, preferrably while he was on the move towards the basket. Hedo had just done that in the finals with D-Howard, and that performance was fresh in the minds of the Blazer brass. Once Turk left for Toronto and Utah matched the Millsap offer, KP’s focus shifted to Miller, who was the next best FA playmaker/scorer available. As much as Nate would prefer that it didn’t signal the departure of Blake…the ‘Dre acquisition (in addition to Steve’s contract status) paved the way for Blake to be a part of the Camby trade, 8 months later
Veteran players need to keep making themselves indispensable as their salaries increase, as opposed to young players who have more “leeway” to fail because of their upside and low salaries. Blake and Outlaw failed to distinguish themselves last April against Houston (to put it mildly…) and the Blazer’s front office immediately began looking for an upgrade at their positions, in July
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Mar 2, 2010 2:50 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think their performances against Houston
had anything to do with it. KP has a long view, and six games would never be determinative.
These guys were expendable because:
1. Andre has become a success, and Jerryd has progressed very far from last year, making Blake expendable.
2. The improvement of Martell and (especially) the offensive development of Nic made Travis expendable.
Adding Hedo would certainly have made Travis expendable last summer, but they weren’t adding Hedo because Steve and Travis missed some shots against Houston, but because they wanted another playmaker.
Fans got all caught up in the Houston loss as if it meant something. Really, all it meant was that we ran into a powerful team with extremely difficult matchups for us at PG and center, and compensating for that meant their PFs hurt us. That, and they were a veteran team while we were playoff novices.
It meant nothing about any one player or his prospects with Portland long term. If it had, the player who we would have dumped, the player who disappointed the most in that series, was Nic Batum. The fact that he is still here tells you everything you need to know about whether six games were at all determinative of anyone’s future.
If Blake had come back and hit 45% of his 3s and had a 3.5 AST/TO ratio, he’d probably still be here. If Travis had been healthy and continued to rebound and defend as he was showing before he got hurt, he might be here still, too. It was a combination of many factors, and the Houston series was a virtually negligible one.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
You could be right.
I just don’t think the Brass would single just one or two players out when the whole team did badly at times. KP has always said that a player won’t be judged on performance of individual games, but from the over-all view of the said player. Besides that I have studied your reference to Steve getting slain by Brooks and have found out that in most so called expert opinions there is very few if any PG that can handle another PG on a one on one on defense with the new rules favoring the points. The way you do that is to nullify him on the other end by posting him up as Andre does or play team defense and push him to the out side.
Rudy did not do so well in the play-offs. No better then Travis. Greg didn’t do great. LMA played poor defense because he couldn’t front Yao and get back and stop Scola from scoring. So with your theory the whole team except for BRoy should have been traded.
I am not in position to argue too much because I am not an expert, but IMO, Travis and Steve was traded because of a hole left at the center due to injury and the fact that all three players involved was on an expiring contract. It could also be said that it is a possibility that they would have let them go at the end of the year by not matching other team’s offers, but that again would have been for betterment of the team because of the fear of Travis’s high demands and too many players in both positions, not because of bad play.
Rudy, Martell, Bayless and even Batum is much cheaper then Travis would have been and maybe even Steve for the next two years their roles are primarily back ups so you can surround Greg, BRoy, LMA and now, Batuum or questionable Dre because of his age and short contract with any quality player and still have a great team.
I just can’t believe that KP would be so small or stoop so low as to trade a good player because of bad play in the play-offs. Steve did some good things in the play-offs as well. Those good things are over-looked because of the bad by some fans, but not me.
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 7:12 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I just can’t believe that KP would be so small or stoop so low as to trade a good player because of bad play in the play-offs
I would hope that playoff performances are “weighted” more heavily than regular season stats. The goal is to construct a roster that will advance in the post season, not keep all the nice guys together regardless of their post season contributions
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That may be true,
This was the first for the team as a whole therefore, it was mostly to get everybody but Steve’s feet wet.
Why trade off the whole team? It was the team that didn’t advance, not a scapegoat that you wish to point at. I can find fault in every player in the play-offs last year, but what is the point. As said this is building for the future not cleaning house from the past.
I will maintain my stand that Travis and Steve were traded for the betterment of the team not because of bad play.
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
Playoff performances are weighted more heavily, I'm sure
but no serious GM would make a judgment of a player’s playoff performance based on one series, especially a player’s first playoff series.
Otherwise, why do people say playoff experience matters? Very simply, because many players don’t do all that well in their very first shot at the playoffs. So to lower your evaluation of a player simply because that happened, their first playoff series wasn’t too successful, would be extremely short-sighted.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
well said, I agree that the expiring contracts were a prime factor in the Travis, Blake trade.
Center was our primary need for this season. Our team has been playing with such heart in the face of staggering injuries, it was right to get them the big man help they need to finish out the season. The problem with Blake was more with how he was used, than any problem with him as a player. I like Travis on the team, and hope he will be back. I expect he wants to be in Portland, which should help.
Re-sign Travis Outlaw !
ugh...
And quite frankly, I think that Aaron Brooks’ slaying of Steve Blake is the reason he he is Clipper and Bayless, Fernandez and Webster are still Blazers.
It’s a team game. The team was unable to contain Brooks. In all honesty, it would have stupid NOT to trade Blake and Outlaw for the 3rd leading rebounder and 6th best shot blocker in the NBA.
We'll miss you #2 & #25!
To add to which
we have to recognize that to get Camby, we had to give up players that the Clippers wanted, and Blake and Outlaw were the ones they wanted. If Webster had the expiring contract, rather than Blake, the trade would have been Martell and Outlaw.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I'd think about Harris because he really is on a bad team. He is better than Bayless, but do you give up on Bayless
this early in his career? I don’t know.
I'm not sure how Harris fits
but proven vs potential, I go with proven at this point. Harris has proven he can play well. My question is would he fit in the culture, style of play, and help Ben with his love of shoes.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
Speaking of culture
If we trade Jerryd for any of these guys, Ben will probably leave Blazer fandom forever, unless it’s a 3 team deal that brings us Durant.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Ben is fickle
After we get Durant, Ben will just want to trade him for Wall.
Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.
My question is would he fit in the culture
Quick has mentioned a couple of times that KP considers Harris one of his “special fit” players to target for a future Blazer’s roster/lineup
And Mark Cuban shared a story back at draft time re: Devin. Harris was sent to a psych for the standard pre-draft interview and he received one of the highest scores in the history of the test (in layman’s terms, he’s “mentally tough”)
Based on this, Blazer fans shouldn’t have any apprehension about Harris potentially joining the team, except for the obvious (what it would take to acquire him)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Davin Harris.
KP is a genius because he stuck Roy with a guy who can’t shoot threes. When we land Harris over the Summer it’s going to make for a much easier transition.
Also, Harris is a really nice guy. He’s been stuck on the Nets for too long. Going from the worst team in the league to the best (Harris + healthy Oden = best team ever) would be a nice turnaround for a guy who really deserves it. It’s basically Manifest Destiny. The Blazers deserve Harris because Harris deserves the Blazers.
It’s just too perfect not to happen.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 1:56 AM PST reply actions 6 recs
I like the way you think
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Mar 2, 2010 1:58 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
So we're rooting for NJ to win the John Wall lottery
so they are willing to make this happen, right?
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Yes.
Except I think a Wall/Harris backcout would be freaking awesome. If they trade Harris they would still need a SG and I’m not sure they could find a better one than Harris. Maybe Rudy would tickle their fancy, but I doubt it.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 7:22 AM PST up reply actions
It would take Rudy plus
They certainly have enough holes.
Rudy, Webster, and a first rounder?
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
That might work.
Miller actually wouldn’t be bad for them. That’s a young team who could use a little more distribution and guidance. Plus, we’ve seen Miller work well with Louis Williams so I’m sure he would be just fine with Wall, probably better even.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 7:57 AM PST up reply actions
Miller, Rudy, and a first rounder
for Harris?
Would we even have to include the first round pick in that case? Perhaps not.
That would give them a good and exciting backcourt, and with Lopez on the front line, it would give them a team that might be attractive to a FA forward like Boozer or Amare or Lee. That would be a definite playoff team, perhaps top 4 in the East. A little thin, but they might get a nice player with their second round pick, and should be able to bolster significantly the next year as well. They’ve not left themselves as thin as NY has.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I think they would do it.
I would do it if I were them.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 8:32 AM PST up reply actions
Would you do it
if you were us? Miller and Rudy?
I think that would be giving up a lot, but it might be worth it. Bayless swings from PG to SG as needed in a three man rotation. We’d want to draft another SG, probably.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
that's a tasty little starting lineup
Miller, Wall, Brook, Martell and a big FA PF? The PF FA class looks good, so they’ve positioned themselves nicely there, and they can use mid sized contracts and future draft picks to fill out the bench/add some more role players.
I think they would want Rudy
but maybe not, because they sure could use a forward. Depends on if they think they could lure LeBron — if so, they would definitely want Rudy, but if not, Martell could be their SF and they could bring in a PF. I think there are some PFs that would want to join that lineup.
Miller and Martell would work for me. Jerryd could back up Harris, Rudy could back up Brandon and Nic, and Dante could back up Nic if we needed more size at backup SF.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
probably would need to include Andre
to reach Harris’ salary…Rudy+Martell doesn’t get it done. Rudy+Bayless+Webster might add up to Devin’s $$$, but that’s a lot of talent to surrender and KP would probably have to ask for another guard in the deal (Lee? Douglas-Roberts? Dooling?)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think you'd want to send Andre, anyway
Why keep Andre and Harris? If you make this deal, it’s because you’ve decided to hand the car keys to Devin, and Andre isn’t ready to go quietly into the night yet.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Courtney Lee is a pretty decent SG
at least as good as Rudy
Tony Luftman Is an Animatronic Robot created by Cyberdyne Industries for the purpose of the destruction of the entire human race, no one shall be spared.
Except
Harris is a shoot first guard much as JBay is. and I don’t think that is a good fit in the over-all scheme of things.
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 8:09 AM PST up reply actions
Was he shoot first
in Dallas, when he had a good team around him, or is it just since he went to NJ?
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Good point.
I was mostly repeating what I have been told.
My answer to your question is I don’t know..
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 8:27 AM PST up reply actions
Actually Harris' assist percentage has gone UP for every year he is in the league
From 22 when he started to now 34 and 36 in New Jersey. He left Dallas with 31. He’s a great passer.
And his assists per game have tripled from 2.2 to 6.8. He left Dallas with 5.8, but was less of a passer there since Terry carried a lot of that.
Our resident Mavericks expert everyone.
Thanks Norsk.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 8:35 AM PST up reply actions
He’s also a great student of the game, a la Nicolas. He can rattle off whichever point guard is most dangerous in any given situation, from 3, from the side, off picks, etc. I really like the guy.
Harris = lots of drives to the rim
and lots of FTs…and Nate likes putting teams into the penalty early each quarter
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That's why we shoot so many jumpshots early in the game
:)
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
what Nate tells them to do does not always equate to what gets done
but that 3rd quarter against Memphis was a nice exception…they actually pushed the ball! Who knew McMiilan could ever coach an uptempo team?
But let’s not get hasty, it was only 1 quarter, after all
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
We've seen stretches of it at other times, as well
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
He wasn't really a shoot first guard in Dallas. Or maybe he was, I don't remember.
Is Bayless even a shoot first guard anymore? He only attempts about three field goals for ever assist he gets. That doesn’t seem too bad really, especially with him coming off the bench/
Nate McMillan doesn’t tolerate gunners. I think Harris would be fine.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 8:31 AM PST up reply actions
Shoot first????????????????????????????????????
What the heck do people have against PGs who can score? I find it baffling. CP3 scores, DWill scores. The days of non scoring PGs is gone, or at least, going. You need someone who keeps pressure on the defense and keeps teams from doubling Roy. You need someone who can use the threat of their scoring to create easy opportunities for their teammates.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 6:20 PM PST up reply actions
"...a guy who can't shoot threes"
You do know Harris is a pretty poor three point shooter?
Career under 30%,this season less than 25%,only one season over 34%.
Miller is horrid at threes,but at least he knows it,averaging just 1 a game,and less than 10% of his shots are threes.
Harris is shootin 3 threes a agme,over 21% of his shots and making less than 1/4 of them.
The advantages of Harris in quickness,defense,getting to the line more frequently are certainly valid reasons for wanting Harris over Miller. Just not 3 pt shooting.
Personally,I question Harris’ fit on the Blazers. Do you really want a scoring PG starting on a team w/Roy,Aldridge,Oden? My belief is if the PG’s shooting,nobody else is.
I dont want a PG who is not an above average defender
Harris or Kirk would be an expensive upgrade,I am fine with Miller and Bayless for another year and then see what we have
I think you just contradicted yourself
You don’t want a PG who is not an above average defender, and you are fine with Miller?
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
3 point shooting is very important from the PG position in our offense
Harris and Ramon Sessions can’t shoot 3’s so i wouldn’t consider them. Calderon is a great shooter and can run an offense. Maybe Rudy would appreciate a fellow countryman. I think Jack could work well in our offense as well.
by Tulo2low on Mar 2, 2010 2:31 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Totally rec'd for sticking up for Jack.
Wearing the black band for Jarrett Jack, Ime Udoka, Fred Jones, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye, Luke Schenscher, Shavlik Randolph, James Jones, Josh McRoberts, Steven Hill, Jarron Collins, Michael Ruffin, Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. Sacrificed to the unmerciful god of progress.
Harris shoots 30% from three for his career, Jack 35%.
Both attempt 2-3 such shots per game. I think it’s a myth that the PG needs to be a great three point threat. A lot of teams with good to great point guards are faring well without that.
In our offense
it isn’t a myth.
It’s not an absolute necessity, Andre has proven you can be effective while being a horrible 3 point shooter, but really, he would be so much more effective if he could hit 35% of his 3s.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I don't know anymore.
Maybe it matters, but San Antonio sure made it work with Parker and he’s just as bad as Miller. (9-30 this season, Miller is 14-65)
On paper it seems like a three point shooter would be ideal, but I think maybe the main problem with Miller is his reliance on posting up for a big chunk of his points. That space is going to be occupied by Oden next season and Miller really didn’t start contributing a ton on offense this year until he started posting smaller guards. I’m not sure how that would work. After all, if Miller isn’t scoring then you would be better off with a more accomplished defender.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 7:51 AM PST up reply actions
I think we could live with Andre
without his posting up points, if we’re getting low post points from Greg.
The only main reason I see to move on from Andre is age. The lack of a three doesn’t help, nor do his defensive weaknesses, but he’s still a very good PG, one you could win championships with, given all the weapons we have on this team. But while our window of contention opens somewhat next year, the years when we should really be top contenders are probably 2012-2016 or so. And Andre is not likely to be around and productive for most of that time, if any of it.
I know Kidd has stayed productive while old, but his improved three point shooting has been a big factor in that, and I just don’t see Andre developing that at this stage in his career.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
but look at the other three point shooters
They generally had one spot up three point shooter and Ginoboli. That helps spread your floor. Big shot bob and a variety of others could bomb away from three for the last second shot to win it.
With Roy attacking at SG you’d want a PG/SF to be able to knock down that three.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
Have LaMarcus shoot the 3
He shoots 40 percent on long twos, which is inefficient. With one stride out, he might make 37 percent of 3s, which is pretty good.
Then you have Roy, the PG and Oden as inside scorers, with Batum/LA spacing as 3 pt shooters.
Sure.
I still don’t see why Roy and Batum couldn’t equal Ginobli and Bowen. The schemes are different because we run a million ISO’s for Roy, but really he does a lot of the same stuff Ginobli did.
Webster, Rudy, Roy, and Batum all shoot three’s extremely well. I think we could live with a PG who doesn’t shoot great from distance.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
Hmmm...
Miller didn’t start producing until he was inserted into the starting lineup, got used to Roy, and had his little blowup with Nate…He didn’t just start posting up smaller PGs, he’s been doing it for years. And his post up game isn’t a big chunk of his points, most comes from close in layups or jumpers after driving the lane. Almost a third of his points come from FTs…
Regardless, you may be right that there will be less opportunities when Oden gets back but that is a pretty small piece of our total offense even right now. But a good coach and players will recognize that opportunity and make it happen even if Oden is on the floor.
We'll miss you #2 & #25!
That space is going to be occupied by Oden next season and Miller really didn’t start contributing a ton on offense this year until he started posting smaller guards
Andre was contributing on offense before Oden went down by getting the ball into Greg better than any other Blazer guard. And Oden was “finding” Miller on give-and-goes for lay-ins. It was fun to watch, like Sabas to Strickland, back in the day
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Those were my picks.
I think Calderon is a terrific fit. JJ knows the players and the team with more experience then JBay.
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 7:19 AM PST up reply actions
Playoff seeding is important to me
Can the Blazers really afford to lose 15 games before January because Andre Miller always starts so slow? The losses may seem insignificant to some fans, but 15 games could be the difference between a number 1 seed and missing the playoffs all together.
Something else that is very important to me, is building a core that can stick together for an 8 to 10 year window. Miller is 33, which I might add is 231 in dog years, his stats are down from his career averages (except 3P% and FT%), and we can only expect him to drop off more with age. There is just no way Miller is part of the core and he is very much in a decline.
Miller is a proven playoff loser, in his 12 year in the NBA he has only 27 playoff games under his belt, and he has never gotten out of the first round. I suspect that Miller has been able to play in so many regular season games because he didn’t have to suffer through the banging that goes on in the playoffs.
Based on age alone, I would take every point guard listed over Miller, except Hinrich. As with Blake, every minute Miller plays PG in a Blazers uniform, is minute that is being taken away from the Blazers future. Every cigarette takes 11 minutes off a person’s life, and by my calculations, every game Miller plays for the Blazers, takes away a .11% chance of the Blazers winning a championship.
at least now in garbage time we call all yell "It’s TIME DIENER!" - TheTinfoil
by tominhawaii on Mar 2, 2010 3:54 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Well, if Andre Miller is a cigarette then Jerryd Bayless must be crack. I’ll take the smooth menthol of Miller over freebasing Bayless through a broken Pez dispenser. The offense grinds to a halt with Bayless out there, I love the kid but nobody seems to know what to do when he takes over. Then Miller or Roy gets everyone back in place and suddenly we have an offense again.
If Miller isn’t the answer down the road and Bayless isn’t ready or can’t handle running the show then what IS the future? Should we be starting Patty Mills, or moving Batum to PG? LMA didn’t look bad running the court tonight, maybe next year we can go big and start LMA at the point and spread the floor with Batum, Pryz, Oden, and Cunningham. Roy is sure to win sixth man of the year. :)
How deep in the play-offs
could we go this year with JBay’s in experience? Do you want deep play-off runs and a higher position this year or for the future. I am not a Dre fan, but he has done what we got him to do, give stability to our offense until a inexperience guard can be trained, whether that be JBay or Mills I don’t know. It is hard to have your cake and eat it too.
Besides the 11 minutes out of a person’s life doesn’t mean much if they were to get ran over in the crazy traffic of today’s world. I know many and many of smokers that smoked from the time they were ten and lived into there ninety’s. therefor your comparison sucks. Maybe Dre could play great for 8 to 10 years longer with your comparison.
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 7:40 AM PST up reply actions
Miller was also picked up for veteran leadership and he fails at that
I bet Nate thought he’d play better defense than he really does. All Miller does is sulk and thankfully Howard was signed to be the leader Miller will never be.
As for my comparison, no way does it suck as much as the idea of Miller playing for 8 to 10 more years. That would be like watching Kazaam on continuous loopback for 8 to 10 years.
at least now in garbage time we call all yell "It’s TIME DIENER!" - TheTinfoil
I disagree,
We needed another ball handler, play maker and contributor to help BRoy.
Your comparison sucks because smoking for ever doesn’t necessarily kill you. You train younger people to know that smoking is bad for your health, breaks down your immune system as many other things in life does and it makes you feel bad. Therefore the 11 minutes per cigarette compared to Dre’s playing time taking away from the younger doesn’t do much. To many Dre is doing great.
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 8:24 AM PST up reply actions
That is amazing.
I can smoke 311,688 cigarettes and it only costs me 6 years?
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 8:41 AM PST up reply actions
when you are keeling over,
thos 6 years will look pretty good. Heck, 6 weeks will look nice.
Re-sign Travis Outlaw !
More likely next year - not this.
Without Miller, the Blazers would not be in the playoff hunt this year. And, as far as the PG’s listed, like most, Harris is at the top of the list, although I can’t see how we could get him without giving up someone named Batum, Roy, Aldridge or Oden. It’s a rare day when you can get a starting PG for second team players, and Miller is too old to be trade bait anymore. This leaves Hinrich, Rubio, Sessions, Calderon and Jack. I’d put Rubio in the same category as Harris in terms of a trade, and of the rest, we could’ve had Sessions but KP didn’t value him enough last summer to match his salary, so I can’t see him going there again. Jack would be a retread, and for whatever reasons, KP traded him to get Bayless. This leaves Hinrich and Calderon. Chicago, however, seems to like Hinrich as their 3rd guard, making him expensive, and rumor was that KP would not give up Bayless to get him – meaning we’d have no 3rd guard to trade to get him. Calderon maybe, but is he really the starter we’re looking for? In the end, I suspect that unless lightening strikes, that KP will find it difficult to get any of these players. Perhaps a Webster/Fernandez combo might work in a trade, but that makes us thin at those positions – and we’d have to find replacements there as well.
I suspect that the odds are that we’ll let the pot boil another year with the players we have, and that the following season, as opposed to this one, will be the more likely time when we might make a move. After all, Bayless is very young but improving, and we don’t really have an urgent need to pull the trigger now. We just need to get – and stay – reasonably healthy.
by Eben Calder on Mar 2, 2010 4:45 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
chicago would dump hinrich in a second...
they were desperate to do so at the trade deadline but no one wants his albatross contract. he’s very available if you can match salary.
why anyone would want him at this point is beyond me but chicago would not stand in the way of a trade, that’s for certain.
I said this when we traded him away.
But Jack really is the perfect fit at PG for us. Can drive, can dish, can hit the three, and plays defense as well as any of our current PGs. And steps out of bounds at a lower per minutes basis than the guy we traded him for. And we know he fits.
I know a lot of people are hoping Jerryd can do all of that as well. And I’m not saying that Jerryd doesn’t have talent, he certainly does. But I’m not sure he’s a point guard. He’s really a short two-guard. And his potential is sky high. But the things we hope Jerryd will eventually be able to do, Jack can do already.
Bring Jarrett Jack home!
Wearing the black band for Jarrett Jack, Ime Udoka, Fred Jones, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye, Luke Schenscher, Shavlik Randolph, James Jones, Josh McRoberts, Steven Hill, Jarron Collins, Michael Ruffin, Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. Sacrificed to the unmerciful god of progress.
by T Darkstar on Mar 2, 2010 5:19 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
jack plays defense better than any of our guards
however i agree that he works better as a combo guard and we’ve got plenty of those. he and bayless are very similar players.
Its about time that Miller got some respect.
Andre has done really well for us this season so I wouldn’t mind keeping him next season. At the same time, the longer Miller stays the less time that our ‘future PG’ has to help us. Really does any of you honestly feel that Nate is going to start Bayless next season? I am 97% sure he won’t. Nate likes to feel comfortable with his PGs and he clearly isn’t with Jerryd. Until Bayless is allowed to play his way through his mistakes, he will have to be playing on the 2nd unit. And by judging the way that Nate pulled Bayless in the T-Wolves game, its not happening any time soon.
Harris is the only one of the players that we were rumored with that I would give up Bayless for. As long as New Jersey gets Wall then we have a decent shot at Devin.
Calderon is very interesting as getting him would increase our chances in keeping Rudy. Too bad he can’t defend, he’s not even an average defender. If Roy had any desire to defend then I’d seriously consider him.
Jack- we can forget that right quick. Been there done that. Jarrett is still a turnover machine and hasen’t lost his tendency to pass while in the air. Plus he’s kind of a ball-hog. Not a good quailty to have in a PG.
Sessions has not proved himself this season so I’d stay away from him. He still has yet to develop a jumpshot.
I’d be totally fine with Conley but I wouldn’t give up more than Miller and Webster for Conley and Arthur/mid 1st round pick.
"Really does any of you honestly feel that Nate is going to start Bayless next season? "
would anyone want Nate to do this?
if so, why?
I wouldn't read too much into that Minnesota game
Nate went with Jerryd down the stretch against Memphis, so I don’t think the “doesn’t trust him” statement applies.
Sometimes, I think Nate makes a change just because he thinks something needs to be done to change the flow of the game. A substitution can have the same effect as a time-out — it gets everyone’s attention, and reminds them of what they are supposed to be doing.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Conley Most DEF
Conley would be my top pick out of everyone. He does not need the ball to be effective, and he can shoot the 3 ball – 43% I think. Also has a friend on the team that we all know and love. Bayless and Conley as our PGs is a nice combo in my opinion. The rest mentioned do not offer an overall better setup than Conley can bring. He would help roy do his thing, spread the floor with that shot o his, keep the big guy super happy, and offer a different style of play that would actually compliment Baylessand Roy. With that said I would like to see what Mills can do for us. I think he has what we need and Nate is just a blind fool. I guarantee that Mills can run circles on Deiner or whatever his name is…. He ran circles around everyone in the olympics.
Conley would be an interesting choice.
The Blazers reportedly offered Blake for him earlier this year so I imagine KP sees something in him. His regression is a little disturbing though. This is his third year and his efficiency has dropped. That probably doesn’t bode too well for his future although it is encouraging that he’s making his three’s.
There’s a reason Mills dropped so far in the draft: he’s just not that good (yet). Sort of like a poor man’s version of Damon Stoudamire, which isn’t too exciting. Sure, he’s got speed which everyone noticed in the Olympics, but that’s pretty useless on the slowest team in the league.
The Blazers need a third PG that won’t hurt them. They don’t need one who can inconsistently hurt/help depending on the night. So, it makes sense to me that Deiner would be preferable this season to Mills. In the future it might pan out differently, but right now I wouldn’t be comfortable putting Mills on the floor.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 5:56 AM PST up reply actions
Conley
May be repressing because of the demands of ZBO. and the development of Mayo. Conley becomes mostly a contributor not a play maker. With Greg his friend, LMA, BRoy, and Batum that may be all we need in a point guard. Like you said, he can also shoot threes. He may be the perfect fit.
hg
by BBK on Mar 2, 2010 7:52 AM PST up reply actions
Dre is more than fine for now and the next season
also next season we’ll be able to have a final word on if Bayless is our PG of the future.
Hinrich is also a good option, the others not so much, Conley could be too but as you said he’s probably not available.
We should not go after Harris, first he’ll be expensive, but mostly he’s not a good fit. We don’t need an all star at the PG position. He’s still an awful catch and shoot player, and by far not as good passer as Dre. He was a good defender but I’m not sure he’d be willing to defend well if he’s having limited touches on offense.
Calderon, because he’d make Rudy better, for Bayless and/or Webster, maybe Przibilla or Camby if we want to drop one of our centers.
Calderon doesn't really play defense
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Conley is the only guy there I'd have any interest in
Devin Harris – more of a scorer than a distributor and I’d like to avoid any more injury-prone guys if at all possible.
Kirk Hinrich – valued by fans of the Blazers and no one else. he’s absolutely abysmal on the offensive end of the floor and his foul rate has been increased steadily as he’s aged.
Jack – nice combo guard but he’s essentially an upgraded Bayless.
Calderon – Sergio is happy he’s still in the league as he can point to Calderon when people accuse Sergio of being the worst defender in the league. I think of him as Steve Blake but Spanish. he’ll put up a fantastic assist to turnover ratio which is largely a result of really safe passes. He’s a fantastic FT shooter which is really meaningless given that he gets to the line just about as infrequently as Blake.
Ramon Sessions – i just haven’t seen much of this guy’s game to be honest. Sue me for not using the NBA package to watch Bucks game last year or W-Wolves games this year. ;) – no opinion
Conley seems to function quite well as a distributor in an offense that has multiple scorers. he’s also shown the ability to both run the fast break and a slow half-court set. he didn’t look very adept trying to defend miller in the post and he got his pocket picked in that 3rd quarter a few times.
I’m not sure i see him enough to say i’m sure his defense is bad but at a glance it appears pretty suspect. however he has radically improved his 3 pt shot which means defenses can’t sag off of him.
Of everyone on the list he seems like the most reasonable fit although why would memphis want to deal him?
he is acctually ranked better then most on D
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
The Future of the Trailblazers
KP is going to make a deal with NJ — if he guarantees them the #1, they’ll trade Harris for Miller (for salary matching), Rudy, and our first round pick. KP uses his powers to warp time and space to win the lottery for the Nets.
Harris will come to Portland, start at PG, and not be able to hit the 3. Everyone knows hitting the 3 is crucial for the PG in Nate’s offense. But you see, KP is tired of Nate’s offense. We will lose some games, even with everyone healthy, and finally Paul Allen will get tired of it, and tell KP, “Fire Nate, his offense reeks.”
KP will say, “But who can we get that would be better? Quality NBA coaches don’t grow on trees, you know.” Paul will say, “I don’t care. You do it, you know a few things about basketball.” KP will say, “I’m willing to try, if that’s what you want.” Paul says, “Do it.”
KP gets off the phone, yells “YES, YES, YES!!!!” Then, he calls Nate into the office, and says, “Nate, this really hurts, but Paul just called me. I’m sorry, Nate. I didn’t want it to come to this.”
Nate says, “Kevin, first you got Miller, and then you got Harris. Neither were a good fit, Kevin. That’s why we are where we are.”
KP says, “You’re probably right, Nate. I’m not sure what to say.”
Nate looks at him and says, “Who is the new guy? Someone from within, or an outside guy?” KP says, “From within,” and Nate says, “Monty will be so pleased. He deserves it.”
KP says, “Nate, it isn’t Monty, but I’ll keep him on if he’ll stay.”
KP scraps the whole offense, institutes SSOL, runs subs in and out like crazy, and we average 25 point victories the rest of the year, going 4-4-4-4 in the playoffs, and never lose another game. Harris and Roy are the best backcourt in the league, Mills and Bayless platoon behind them and run teams ragged, with Batum/Webster/Cunningham at the 3, LaMarcus/Marcus at the 4, and Greg/Joel/Jeff at the 5.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
In my fantasy.....
……Bayless develops into a monster PG who terrorizes the league, but other than that, I like your fantasy. Are you willing to share?
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
Of course he does
In my fantasy, Mills plays SG and drains 3s while Bayless drives and dunks.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Jason Filippi said Paul Allen won't sign off on trading Rudy
you can believe that or not as you wish, I tend to think Filippi let spill a nugget of Blazer insider info that KP would rather have been kept quiet
Owners have made “decisions” on Blazer trades in the past, BTW. Lenny Wilkens tells the story of how he “requested” that Sidney Wicks be traded in ’75 and Weinberg refused, and that ultimately cost Wilkens his job. Then Jack Ramsay was hired and made the same request and Wicks was dealt. Later, Weingberg apologized to Lenny and told him he was right about Sidney
KP might want to deal Rudy for Harris, but if Allen says “find another way to do that deal” (without #5 being involved) then that will be that. Filippi’s comments gave us a glimpse behind the curtain of Portland’s front office
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
KP would rather have been kept quiet?
Why? How does that hurt in the least?
If Rudy is really untradeable, why does it hurt to have that known?
On the other hand, if Rudy IS tradeable, doesn’t it help to have teams that want him think he is virtually untradeable?
“Well, I know you want him, but this is going to be a tough sell, because Paul loves his game. Now, throw in your first round pick, and I’ll try to get Paul to go along.”
It in no way hurts to have it be “known” (read “thought”) that Rudy is a Paul Allen favorite who can’t be traded. The more the other guy thinks you value your player, the more he is likely to pay if he really wants him.
Paul Allen is a businessman. If the right deal comes, he’ll approve it.
Whether this is the right deal, of course, is a completely different question. But then, my whole post was rather facetious.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
look at it from KP's perspective
you’ve got a European star SG who’s stuck playing behind an all-star SG. Rudy is trying to be patient but you know he’s doing a slow burn every time he plays less than 20 mpg. According to Filippi, there was at least one deal for Rudy that was proposed and nixed by Paul. Maybe the reason (Allen’s man-love for Rudy) is well-known around the league, but to my knowledge Fernandez’ “untradeable” status had not been made public, even by A-Woj.
So, you’ve got the portait of a GM who is trying to improve the roster but being restricted by his owner’s infatuation with a specific player, who happens to be “blocked” on the depth chart by the team’s star. That’s not a favorable position for KP to be in, no matter how you spin it. Sure, you could say that it could force another team’s GM to “overpay” for Rudy, but I’d say it’s more likely to cause the phone to stop ringing re: #5. Meanwhile, Fernandez’ discontent grows as Bayless and Batum’s PT increases
As long as PA holds his finger in the dike, the water pressure will build. But if KP gets bupkiss for Rudy in a future deal, who will get the blame from the A-Woj’s of the world? Not the owner
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think you are trying to read too much ...
… into the tea leaves. My suggestion, just drink the tea.
I have difficulty believing that making sure Rudy Fernandez doesn’t get traded makes the top 25 of things Paul Allen is thinking about. I also think that theorizing of this sort has its roots in Allen wanting to sign Miles and suppossedly insisting on selecting Webster over Chris Paul. Smart folks tend to learn from their mistakes. I am far more likely to believe that Paul Allen has figured out that the guy he named as his GM is a better judge of talent and knows what the team needs better than he does and therefore is not all that inclined to stand in the way of any deal Pritchard might make.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I drink a lot of tea, but I use bags
I am far more likely to believe that Paul Allen has figured out that the guy he named as his GM is a better judge of talent and knows what the team needs better than he does and therefore is not all that inclined to stand in the way of any deal Pritchard might make.
Powerful men tend to like to be in control, at least I’ve heard this to be true. And we’ve heard from reporters that Paul gets a certain gleam in his eye when the names of certain players are mentioned. The decision to keep Patty Mills (versus the coach’s choice, Udoka) last fall was one example. Again, reporters who saw KP make the roster announcement noticed his lack of enthusiam to the final choice.
Is this “making a mountain out of a molehill”? Perhaps, but when we get a peek behind the curtain of the Blazer’s front office I take the new intel into consideration. Jason Filippi has provided that info, and now we know that 1) Allen considers Rudy untradeable, and 2) a deal that included Rudy was nixed by the owner, in the past. To me, this is good to know, because otherwise we could speculate all day about deals involving Fernandez that have absolutely zero chance of ever being approved. Why waste the effort?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I was wrong, too
I have been really impressed with Andre – clutch, opportunistic, steady, hard worker. The only thing I don’t like about his game now is his occasional ‘aw, shucks, I can’t make this shot but I think I’ll shoot it anyway.’ I’d like to have him around for a few years if/when our center(s) return. Having said that, I don’t want Jack back. Most of the other players mentioned still need seasoning…It’s nice to have a guard who really knows the ropes.
It drives me nuts
to see him with the ball… seconds tickign down… doesn’t look to pass to a wide open Roy… and he charges. THAT is what I haven’t liked about miller.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
He does dribble time off the clock more than I like
Brandon does, too.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I might have said Conley before last night,
but Andre Miller was able to post him a little too easily. That would concern me. Devin Harris is very similar; perhaps more polished. Frankly, I’m not sure the ideal point guard exists. Is Magic Johnson still available?
Harris is bigger than Conley.
Size-wise, Harris is a legit 6’3"-4" area, while Conley is barely 6’ (wouldn’t be surprised if he was smaller than 6’).
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
just an idea.. DJ Augustin
i loved dj augustin in college, and the dude had a a really good rookie year where he shot over 40 from behind the arc. He can drive, he can pass, has a mid range game and is more of the pure point guard mode. His defense isn’t all that great and he’s a bit on the smaller side, but he’s definitely a better blake and I could see him playing real well along side brandon. DJ would be able to knock down those 3s that blake use to hit.
The problem, or reason why he is available is that his sophomore year he has been awful and he’s fallen out of favor with larry brown. I’ve completely given up on jerryd bayless ever being a point guard and would trade him straight up for augustin, in hopes that by being on a new team dj would be able to find his game again.
Juwan Howard, drafted June 29th, 1994. Netscape first released November 14th, 1994
interesting option
the Blazers had DJ in at the PF pre-draft and were impressed with his workout. (There is probably still a video of his workout/interview if you dig deep enough on the TB website)
OTOH, Portland didn’t workout Bayless before that draft, probably because they didn’t expect Jerryd to “fall” to them
Everyone talks about the “Oden-Conley connection” but DJ and LMA have some history at TX
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Conley
He would fit perfectly in Nate’s system with his 3 pt shooting ability, he plays pretty good defense, has a connection to Greg, and I think Memphis would give him up for either of our backup SG’s (Rudy or Bayless) because Mayo wants to move to the PG position.
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
Hmmm, that might be something to look into
If Rudy isn’t happy here, maybe he’l like being able to play with Marc Gasol. I’m sure Oden would like that trade. Then Bayless can focus on being the backup 2.
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 2, 2010 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
Why don't you look at what is already here?
Bayless PER 15.6; Conley PER 12.5
Bayless TS% .535; Conley TS% .512
Bayless TO% 9.7; Conley TO% 12.6
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
Bayless is a Shooting Guard, Conley is a Point Guard
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
At some point, this mantra just becomes silly.
Conley averaged 5.1 assists per 36 minutes, last year in his second season playing exclusively at PG. He has upped that to 6.0 this season.
Bayless averages 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, this year, his second in the league splitting time between PG and SG. The 9% difference in assist stats is utterly meaningless given the fact that Bayless has been asked by the coaches to focus on scoring more much of his time on the court.
Not to mention that Bayless has a TOV% of 12 while Conley is packing a rate of 18.
How do you, and others who seem to share your point of view, justify repeating this comment about Bayless “not being a PG”? I’m not trying to be snarky, I am seriously interested in an explanation. Bayless guards PGs, he brings the ball up court, he initiates play and sets up teammates, how is that not a PG?
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 5:44 PM PST up reply actions
Bayless is a combo guard
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Good Question
The only three that I could see as blazers are Jack, Conley and Hinrich.
Harris isnt going anywhere. Plus he is a little too much of the ballhandler/playmaker type for what the blazers need. Id think long and heard before giving up Andre for him.
Conley seems like…. I dont want to say a bust, but doesn’t it seem like there are many young PGs that are already better than him? I know its early, but how many times have you watched him in Memphis and said “now THAT’s what I want from my PG?” Not many.
I still don’t get why we traded Jack for Bayless. He has gotten better in IND and TOR, no question. When he was here I loved JJ and Roy’s chemistry and Jack always seemed to hit the clutch three, something that Bayless probably wont do for another 3 years. That being said, JJ still commits dumb TOs and is a combo guard at heart…. At this point Bayless gives you basically the same things, but with more athleticism and less shooting.
Hinrich is the best fit. Hits the open three and still can play great D (remember the CHI/BOS playoff series?) Who cares if he is more expensive? Isnt that why we have Paul Allen’s $$$?
Bayless figures to be a much better defender than Jack
and the shooting will come within a year.
Jack is still a smarter defender, but Jerryd is quicker and will be far better in a year or two, I’m guessing.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
That and jack
seemed to step out of bounds every game. It drove me nuts. I actually liked Jack except for that.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
I only remember people getting mad about him stepping out of bounds...
I don’t remember him actually doing it.
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 2, 2010 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
absense makes the heart grow fonder
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Mar 2, 2010 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
He did it time after time
I stuck by Jarrett for a long time, but his last year here, he kept doing that, and he didn’t really progress. In a young player, you don’t want to see them fail to progress in their third year, and he did. That makes you think he’s reached his ceiling. I was down with trading him, and thrilled we got Bayless for him. I still think it was a steal.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I still don’t get why we traded Jack for Bayless
Rudy was coming the next fall and JJ was not happy being a reserve
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I doubt that was the reason.
A far more likely one is that Pritchard was of the opinion that Bayless could be the better NBA player long term.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
It's possible
that there needed to be some roster clearance to help convince Rudy to come. It cost him a lot of money to come, so if he didn’t think there was going to be playing time, he might not have made the jump.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
PG
I think Miller has two more good seasons in him.
My hope is Blazers find a PG in the draft who proves to have the talent to be Miller’s successor.
I realize this year’s draft is thin on PGs but since there were a boatload of them in last year’s draft the demand for PG’s probably isn’t going to be that big either, so if there are 2 or 3 good PG’s out there maybe the Blazers will be able to snap one up with their 1st round pick.
maybe the Blazers will be able to snap one up with their 1st round pick.
God I hope not. KP has drafted a PG (or two) every year since he’s been a GM, and he inherited Telfair from Nash/Patterson. Portland hasn’t developed an above-average PG since Terry Porter, so why not trade excess wing players for another veteran who (like Miller/Blake) doesn’t have to be “coached-up” before he can run Nate’s system?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Hinrich
I would go with the best defensive point guard of the bunch. Hinrich is a hard-nosed point guard that will play team ball. He has shown a willingness to sacrifice his ego for the good of the team and has been a “good soldier” for Chicago.I think he would fit great with Roy because Hinrich has a decent shot and would fit into Portland’s championship window.
Hinrich's 'D' is the key
Whoever we get to start alongside Roy needs to have defensive skills. Hinrich has those. He’s also an intelligent player who can shoot well when he’s comfortable. I think he would excel in Portland if given the chance because the Blazers would be giving him confidence by starting him on a contender. I think it’s a role Hinrich is relishing and I think he’s capable of living up to the expectations. He’s a veteran who does everything solid and defends well. Out of the names mentioned in this post I think Hinrich is the only one who fits our need for defense and the ability to mesh with Roy on offense. I would take Harris over Hinrich because of Harris’ ability to pass and score, but I think the odds of getting Harris are low.
Here's a question for you early risers:
How does the choice of a PG interact with the brand of offense the Blazers can play in the future? I know a Steve Blake style “no mistakes/hit the open shot” kind of guy works well in our relatively conservative and simple offense where Brandon does almost all the perimeter playmaking. But if we want to move to an offense where there is a bit more off the ball movement and passing, would a conservative PG have the technical passing skills to make it work?
If we are going to rely on movement and cuts by Batum, Oden and Roy for a certain number of easy baskets, it strikes me running a guy like Hinrich out there might be a problem.
hmmm
I’m not sold on any of those options Dave.
I want defense, speed, court vision, and three point shooting.
I think Miller works now because we have less players in the post scoring (oden). I think we’ll have issues again next year, so I’m not sold on standing pat.
Harris is appealing if I wanted a big time scorer.
Kirk is appealing if I only want a pg for a few years but he strikes me as slow.
Jose… love the kid but Nate and his system would suck the guys soul away… plus no defense.
Jack… bayless can be Jack or better in a few years. Plus the “trade JJ1” posts would drive me nuts and they’d happen as soon as he came here.
I’m looking around the league in my head and amused that not many point guards fit this. Either I’m way off base about what a point guard should be, or there’s a lot of sucky point guards out there.
Blakes conservatism is an issue, you want blake, but more risk and slightly more speed.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
oh...
and I didn’t think conley was worth considering.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
the problem, as i see it
Blakes conservatism is an issue, you want blake, but more risk and slightly more speed.
Is that we want someone with the technical ballhandling skills and playmaking ability to bail Brandon out when the defense takes the ball out of his hands, but we only want him to use it in case of emergency. If it’s not an emergency (e.g. the other team’s not selling out to take the ball out of Brandon’s hands) we just want the guy to make the open shot. So the conundrum is that this guy needs to have the skills but be willing to sit on them until absolutely forced to use them.
Of course, nobody with the technical ballhandling and playmaking ability to help us is going to want to come and just be a three point shooter 90 percent of the time. So if we want to get that help for Brandon in the backcourt, we’re going to have to commit to giving that guy a little of Brandon’s share of the offense. In this respect, playing with Andre has been good for Brandon, and I wouldn’t want to revert to a Blake/Hinrich type player now that Brandon is learning to work with a more dynamic player.
by atomiccafe on Mar 2, 2010 8:41 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on Mar 2, 2010 2:12 PM PST up reply actions
I would say there is a host of strong young point guards in the league right now, maybe more than in a long time. Soon we can add Rubio and Wall to that. Too bad the Blazers seem to have problems finding one. I fear the Lakes will attract their Fisher replacement before we find our mythical point guard of the future.
Isn't Bayless on our roster?
He is outplaying most of the young PGs in the league. See my comment below.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 9:18 AM PST up reply actions
He might with playing time. Right now, I can't sign that.
I’ve long said he has similar talent to Westbrook (minus some defense and rebounding, potentially better shooting). Unfortunately Westbrook has learned to run a team in different situations now extensively, while Bayless has not.
I think that is a fair assessment, as far as it goes.
Bayless is the better shooter. Westbrook is the better defender and rebounder.
Bayless has spent much of his time behind three different PGs and playing for a coach who has been stressing to win every game. Bayless has probably played more SG in his first two seasons than PG. Still, I think he shows signs of being successful in making the transition. If all goes well, he is going to be a true “play-maker” in the sense that he can use the threat of his penetration and his scoring to stress the defense and create openings for his teammates. That is the way I see CP3 and D Will, the models for the modern, scoring PG. Whether Bayless becomes that good is certainly an open question. I think he has a good shot.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
Irony and Andre Miller...
If we had played the Sixers on that trip and hadn’t already signed Andre Miller over the summer, we would be demanding that Andre is the perfect fit for this team, and that KP needed to make it happen today.
This post is making me re-evaluate the time I spend on this site.
Andre isn't the perfect fit
He’s a good fit, but not perfect because he can’t shoot the 3 ball and isn’t a very good defender.
If thinking about possibilities makes you re-evaluate the time you spend here, then I don’t really know what to say. This site is all about analysis, discussion, thinking about possibilities, etc, etc. This post, ultimately, comes down to this — what would a perfect PG for the Blazers look like? Lots of interesting points of view here, as people measure up the different PGs mentioned to what their view is of the perfect PG. None of these guys are perfect, and Andre isn’t either, but life is like that — you have to get by with less than perfect in all walks of life, so where can you compromise, and where do you have to say, “This is a must have?”
By mentioning a bunch of specific PGs, Dave is making people explore their views of not what is the perfect PG, but what is most important in a PG. It’s a fun exercise.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Fair enough...
Jscot, I recant the last sentence. It was unnecessary and clearly I did read the post and am back now, so an idle statement. My thoughts, specifically, are:
- Hinrich is the only one that appeals to me because of his ability to hit the 3, play defense and distribute when necessary; I totally buy into the “’Blake-like with additional abilities” argument with him and think he would fit well in Portland I was pro-Devin Harris for a long time, but have heard some analysts (Buecher and Simmons, sorry) say that he’s a stat guy and there were some very real leadership / team reasons he was traded away from Dallas, which is concerning…and even more so when you see him leading a six-win team
-
— I haven’t seen enough of Calderon or Conley, but I think we’ve all seen plenty of Jack and that scares me a bit; regardless of post-Blazer success, I’m inherently biased against a guy that is expendable to teams on an annual basis
:)
Glad you’re still here.
I could live with Hinrich, but I don’t think he’s as good for us right now as Andre is, and I don’t think he’ll be as good for us in two years as Jerryd will be, so I don’t see the point in getting him. But then, I’m very high on Bayless, and not everyone else sees it that way.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I’m very high on Bayless, and not everyone else sees it that way.
I’ll feel more strongly re: Bayless if Roy and Batum can handle most of the half court playmaking responsibilities and let Jerryd do the attacking. Most important: Rex has to keep improving his outside shooting% and learn how to defend PGs on the perimeter without hand-checking
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Question for you:
Everyone applauds Roy’s playmaking ability and willingness to share the ball. Roy averages 4.7 assists per 36 minutes. Bayless has spent more than half his time playing “the Roy” in Portland’s offense, and has an average of 4.6 assists, not to mention a lower TOV%, and yet everyone is concerned about his playmaking abilities. It seems a little contradictory to me. How do you and others arrive at such wildly different conclusions about players who seem to have more than a little in common?
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions
I feel like Bayless is more of a PG.
If you go by Tom Ziller’s formula then last year’s Bayless did more “PG stuff” than Roy.
2008/2009 PG Purity
-——————————————-
Jason Kidd 97
Jose Calderon 93
Steve Nash 87
Sergio Rodriguez 83
Steve Blake 65
Jameer Nelson 61
T.J Ford 58
Kirk Hinrich 56
Ramon Sessions 55
Rajon Rondo 53
Chauncey Billups 53
Mike Conley 48
Devin Harris 48
Andre Miller 47
Mo William 45
Tony Parker 38
Russle Westbrook 38
Jerryd Bayless 38
Jordan Farmar 37
Damon Jones 37
Allen Iverson 34
Louis Williams 32
Brandon Roy 29
Nate Robinson 28
Jason Terry 27
Monta Ellis 26
Rudy Fernandez 26
Leandro Barbosa 23
That doesn’t mean Bayless has better decision making, it just means he’s more willing to give up the ball. I don’t know if you can fault Roy either, since he was getting a lot of ISO plays run for him. The offense wasn’t really designed for Roy to give up the ball.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 6:18 PM PST up reply actions
because I watch him play?
and see him struggle to read defenses and know when to attack and when to set up his teammates
Jerryd is like a lot of young guards who grew up with a scoring mentality but now (because of his size) have been forced to become offensive facilitators. He’s going to struggle when playing against elite defenses in pressure situations. I’ve praised his work ethic and desire in the past, but he came along late in the Blazer’s team renaissance, and he’s been given less time to “find his way” than Jack, Sergio and some of the other young PGs that Portland has drafted in the last 5+ years.
I think that having Brandon and Nic starting at the 2-3 will help Bayless adjust to playing “PG” more rapidly, unless Rudy beats him out for the starting job when Miller hangs ‘em up (and assuming KP doesn’t make another deal to change the guard personnel.) You’re confident that Rex will win the starting PG job outright, that’s fine. It’s good to have confidence in a young/upcoming player. I’m from the old school that says “show me” not with the stats but out there on the floor. When I see Jerryd running the show consistently with Miller on the bench and the lead growing instead of shrinking, then I’ll relax and say he’s arrived.
But no excuses. None of “he made the right pass but his teammate missed the shot” I don’t care, it’s his job to make plays, if he wants that starting gig. He didn’t do it with the summer league roster, and now he’s got better talent against tougher competition. Win me over, that’s all I ask of Bayless, Rudy, Martell or any young Blazer. Nic has done it. I takes consistency and being in the right place at the right time, making the right read and not choking when it’s your turn to produce. Do it #4, you were a lottery pick—play like one
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Thanks for the reply
I appreciate the effort, although I have to confess I don’t find your reply wholly satisfying. Here are a few thoughts
1) I find it hard to imagine Rudy playing PG for anything more than spot minutes: too many high risk passes: not a good enough handle; not enough speed to collapse defenses; above all, not enough lateral quickness to defend most PGs.
2) There are times when Bayless seems to struggle initiating the offense. It seems like one or two things are going on: 1) teams that put a lot of pressure on Bayless, and who have good shot blockers waiting behind the pressuring PG, making it difficult for him to get where he wants to go on the floor; 2) when there is no movement on offense and everyone is just standing around waiting for Bayless to make something happen.
3) On the other hand, he seems pretty effective against teams were he gets enough room to take that quick first step of his. Once he is on the move, most teams need to bring help to keep him out of the middle and he seems to be doing pretty well at hitting teammates on the perimeter for an open jumper. Given that this is the most frequent shot he is able to create for his teammates, it does matter if they are hitting or not. Of coarse you don’t expect them to hit everyone, but when his second team group goes 1-8, it does create problems.
I think as Bayless gets more experience, he will get better at creating different kinds of shots for his teammates. He will get better at low post entry passes, lobs, drops to the bigs off penetration, etc. For now, he is best at creating open jumpers on the perimeter, so it does matter if his teammates are able to hit.
I hope Nate will continue to experiment with using Bayless with the starters whether early in the game, or late in the 4th. I suspect that Bayless may eventually prove to be more effective as a low minutes starter than a high minutes reserve. As Bayless gets better on defense and as his spot-up shooting becomes more consistent, he is probably better taking turns initiating the offense with Roy, while Miller can use the full range of his scoring and PG skills to run the second unit.
Bottom line, if Bayless can develop into a quality defender and if he can hit his threes at 35%, his distribution skills are going to start looking a lot better to folks regardless of how much he improves.
by upper left corner on Mar 3, 2010 8:07 AM PST up reply actions
1) I find it hard to imagine Rudy playing PG for anything more than spot minutes: too many high risk passes: not a good enough handle; not enough speed to collapse defenses; above all, not enough lateral quickness to defend most PGs.
I agree with this, but the prospect of Batum playing “point forward” in the starting lineup has changed the dynamic. (Antonio Harvey said the other day that the Blazer coaches are talking about this potential role for Nic, so it’s not just idle BE speculation, anymore) If Batum can handle the ball and defend PGs, suddenly you can play Roy/Rudy or Roy/Bayless together in the backcourt for extended minutes, and not “need” a Miller/Blake on the floor at the same time. It’s still a hypothetical scenario, but it’s something to think about and anticipate, and it could make the pursuit of a younger PG to “replace” Andre moot.
As Bayless gets better on defense and as his spot-up shooting becomes more consistent, he is probably better taking turns initiating the offense with Roy, while Miller can use the full range of his scoring and PG skills to run the second unit.
I don’t anticipate Bayless beating Miller out for the starting PG job next year, but if Jerryd keep showing improvement he could “steal” more of Andre’s minutes, especially during the regular season
FYI, “coarse” means your throat is sore, “course” is the word to use after “of”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
100% correct
on this:
Bottom line, if Bayless can develop into a quality defender and if he can hit his threes at 35%, his distribution skills are going to start looking a lot better to folks regardless of how much he improves.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
cant see why
we would trade Miller at this point. Or Bayless for that matter. Miller has been a massive asset to this team. I think you try to keep Miller for as long as possible, that guy makes things happen. Bayless is so young and is promising, I think you have to stick it out to see how he develops. In a couple of years if Bayless isnt performing at the level we want you drop him…. but keep Miller
Is it just me?
Devin Harris…really? No thank you. Over-rated. His numbers actually are so aweful this year. Last year may have been a fluke.
39% FG. 24% from deep.
wow…gimme Blake
by NBAstard on Mar 2, 2010 8:42 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Nope
None. Absolutely not.
BLAKE? People are mentioning BLAKE?! My god, just stop.
Developing your own talent is almost always cheaper than buying someone else's
Miller is once again just below the top tier of PGs in the league. He currently ranks 11th in PER among PGs, which given his slow start and bumpy transition (thanks largely to Nate) is very impressive. Miller and Roy may not be a perfect fit, but they are working it out. Miller is uber-crafty and has a remarkable feel for the game. His shot is uglier than Cinderella’s step-sisters, but his TS % of .531 is pretty darn good. I see Miller as our likely starter through the middle of next season. By then, I expect Bayless to be ready.
Bayless developing into our long range starter is almost certainly the preferred option for the team. He has speed, strength, aggressiveness, intelligence and work ethic. The main areas where he needs improvement, shooting and decision making, are areas were he can be reasonably expected to improve with age and experience.
Many around here do not seem to fully recognize just how well Bayless has played this season. He is currently ranked 26th in PER among all PGs in the league with a rating of 15.6. Among the large cohort of young PGs drafted in the last two years, only five are ahead of Bayless: T Evans 18.8; D Rose 18.2; R Westbrook 17.9; T Lawson 16.9; and D Collison 15.7.
Bayless has played significantly fewer minutes than all of these guys and has been put on a far shorter leash. In fact, 20 of the 25 PGs with better PER than Bayless are starters, and Bayless is the only one of the top 30 PGs who has played fewer than 20 minutes per game. In addition, I doubt that any of the 25 guys ahead of Bayless have had to deal with the fluctuating role and minutes that Bayless has dealt with this season. He has gone from scrap minutes at PG, to back-up SG, to starting SG, to combo guard, and most recently to back-up PG. That is a lot of change for a 21 year old player and has no doubt affected the consistency of his production.
Bayless’ critics usually focus on two aspects of his game: shooting and distributing the ball. How valid are these criticisms?
1) Shooting: Bayless TS% of .535 is quite strong overall, and particularly strong for a young guard. If Bayless were getting more PT, his ability to get to the line would place him among the league elite in FTA per game. Free throws are efficient, and Bayless has increased his FT% above 82% this season. Bayless’ percentage near the rim is excellent. He does get a fairly high percentage blocked, but he is likely to get better at shielding the ball with his body as he gets more experience. He is also likely to get more calls as he establishes more of a reputation with the zebras.
His outside shot is streaky, but his overall percentage has improved by .050 which is an outstanding improvement and bodes well for additional improvement in the future. Overall, Bayless has the 5th best TS% among the young PGs drafted in the past 2 years; better than Rose, Westbrook, Collison, Jennings and a host of others. Among the PGs listed in Dave’s piece, Bayless’ TS% is better than Hinrich, Conley, Sessions, Flynn, and Harris.
Bayless isn’t yet great from 3 pt. land, as his .28% demonstrates, however he is moving in the right direction. Bayless has made a lot of long 2s this season and if he gets better at getting his toes behind the line, it isn’t going to take much for him to get his percentage up significantly. Young guys often take a few years to get consistent from 3 pt range. In fact, it might surprise folks to know that Bayless is about as good as Chris Paul was in his first couple of seasons. A little patience is likely to go a long way.
2) The “real” criticism of Bayless has always been whether or not he would develop into a decent distributor and playmaker. How is he doing?
Bayless is averaging 4.6 Assists Per 36 Minutes of PT, that ranks him just slightly behind B Roy at 4.7 Assists Per 36 Minutes and the recently departed Blake at 5.2.
Given that Bayless has played nearly half his minutes at SG or SF (in 3 guard line-ups) this is pretty decent, in my opinion. Coupled with his very low TO%, I think Bayless assist numbers clearly give reason for optimism. He is young and inexperienced. He is going to make mistakes. The team is going to struggle occasionally while he is trying to learn his craft, but the upside potential isn’t hard to see:
Bayless is so strong and fast going to the rim, he requires a great deal of defensive attention similar in many ways to Brandon Roy. As Bayless’ ability to hit the pull up jumper and the spot up three improves, he is going to be extremely difficult to defend. Teams are already sending lots of help to try to contain Bayless, and teammates are getting open jumpers on pick and rolls and isolations. Rudy and Martell have not been hitting a lot of those jumpers in the last few games, but you can see the future.
Imagine Bayless with Roy, Aldridge, Oden, and Batum. Give them a year together next season, and I firmly believe they will be ready to challenge the league’s elite. We have our future starting five. Trading for players who are more experienced, but not any better, seems truly short sighted. Trade Bayless at your peril. He will come back and haunt this franchise for more than a decade. Trading Bayless has far more potential for regret than Jermaine O’Neil ever had.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 9:10 AM PST reply actions 5 recs
God points ULC
If Bayless can get hisw 3 Pt. % to 35% or better his ability to get to the rim will make him downright scary.
Allen Iverson should decline his allstar spot!
-Charles Barkley-
It is almost certain to happen
If all the two pointers he had hit with his toes on the line were threes, he would already be there.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 9:25 AM PST up reply actions
I said above I would trade Bayless & Rudy for Harris.
You have changed my mind, to much to give up.
Allen Iverson should decline his allstar spot!
-Charles Barkley-
Bayless will be tried, certainly
Loved the confidence in Miller. Totally well-founded.
And I agree that Bayless will play and get a thorough trial over the next season. But I have less confidence that he will succeed. However, learning these two simple things — how to see the court, possible, and when and when not to put his head down and drive — he would be a more passable passer and even more efficient offensive threat.
Classic Bayless was last night, at the end of the third quarter, when Bayless was PG and both Batum and Roy were out there as options, and instead of passing to the open man, Bayless jacked up a shot he missed with 4 seconds on the 24.
Did you watch when Roy went back to the bench and was chewing Bayless out for being a ball hog?
Bayless might have a lot of skills, but he does not have the bent to be a PG. If he wants to succeed at that position rather than get fill-in minutes as a sparkplug combo guard, he will need to not only know his role, but learn to love it.
part of this is situational
Going into this season, Steve Blake and Andre Miller were clearly ahead of Jerryd at the PG spot. Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez were entrenched ahead of him at the 2 guard spot. As such, the numbers game said Bayless had just as good a chance getting playing time at the ‘2’ as at PG. Because Bayless’s natural skills lean toward attacking and scoring, he appears to have worked on that aspect of his game last summer, figuring that would be his best chance to get on the court. That tactic worked: his outside shot went from abysmal to inconsistent, and his improvements attacking the cup have been noticeable. He is now a decent offensive option, which is a huge improvement over the horribly inefficient player he was last year.
By trading Steve Blake, management has told Jerryd his long term role on the team is contingent on learning to play the point. I want to give Jerryd the summer and part of next season backing up Dre to see if he can put his considerable work ethic and talent toward learning and loving his role. Although it is possible he will never be an NBA level distributor, there is a reasonable chance he will be (particularly given the huge improvements in his game from his first to his second seasons).
Decision making is largely a function of experience.
Bayless has been consistently getting open jumpers for teammates, and he has been largely deferential to Roy on the limited occasions when they have played together.
Focusing on the mistakes and ignoring the progress is a good way to mis-diagnose the development potential of young players. If Bayless had been a four year PG in college and was still making the kind of mistake you pointed out in your comment, I would share your concern. But we all know the story: Bayless was recruited to be the PG at UA by Lute Olsen, who knows something about PGs. Instead, Olsen’s departure and the injury of the teams top SG, caused Bayless to be moved to SG.
He is only 21. He only had 600 minutes of PT all of last year. He has played more than half his minutes this year at SG or SF. Given this history, expecting him to play like a savvy vet seems unreasonable. If you watch Bayless closely, you will notice that he learns from his mistakes. He has improved dramatically from last year to this, and there is every reason to expect the improvement to continue.
It isn’t a sure deal. Last year I said Bayless had an 80% chance of becoming a good bench scorer and a 60% chance of developing into a starting quality PG. Many laughed at those percentages as fantastically optimistic. I think the odds are even better now. If you go to Basketball Reference and and do a player search for all the young PGs over the past twenty years who have numbers similar to Bayless’ numbers (points per 36, TS%, assists per 36, FTA) this season, almost every single guy has gone on to be a solid starter and at least half have gone on to be all-stars.
Bayless is a real talent. A little patience is likely to be rewarded with a tremendous payoff.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
rec
It’s also interesting to note just how inexperienced and raw Jerryd is playing the point. Nate always played him with either Dre or Blake to ensure stability, but this also kept him from developing as a distributor/facilitator. Jerryd has played only 2 percent of the minutes at PG this year. With so little in game experience and so much potential, it is far to early to be making broad predictions about whether Jerryd can learn the position based on 3 or 4 games. Furthermore, not all of the stagnation on offense while he is in can be laid at his feet. His teammates are not used to him playing the point, so the level of comfort hasn’t developed yet (similar to what we saw with Dre early in the year).
It took Tony Parker (who I believe to be Jerryd’s closest PG comparison) a a full year of poor shooting and playing heavy minutes with crummy production to get learn to play the point in the NBA.
I do have one quibble with your post
It’s not quite fair to compare Bayless’s numbers to those of other young point guards, since he has largely played shooting guard this season until the Blake trade. I don’t know if this would affect the TS numbers, but you can’t say his AST numbers are good despite him playing SG, then give him credit for the shooting numbers he’s accumulated while someone else is facilitating and compare those numbers to other PGs.
Point well taken, although I will quibble with your quibble.....
…….Bayless creates the vast majority of his own scoring chances. He is not being fed by Blake, or Miller, or even Roy. His TS% is largely the result of his ability to create his own opportunities.
I do agree that part of the reason Bayless’ TO% is so low is because he has spent a lot of minutes at SG.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
Nice post
I doubt we trade for any of these guys, because I still think Jerryd is our PG, and KP and crew know it.
My only problem with your post is the personal attack. Must you insult Cinderella’s step-sisters by comparing them to Andre’s jumpshot?
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
lol
I was wondering if my analogy would draw any comment. My apologies to women everywhere.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
Even worse
Your apology reveals that you meant to insult all women. I’m just waiting for Sophia to join this one.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
You deserve a one week ban for even raising the possibility.
I think we all like Sophia here at BE, but she’s as stable as 50 year old dynamite left out in the sun all day on certain issues.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I think you're overestimating Bayless' TS%
I agree, .535 is a solid clip, but Jerryd only shoots 41% from the field, averaging 2.9 makes out of his 6.9 shots. His game is largely predicated on drawing foul calls, either by driving or on the perimeter. Those free throws inflate his TS% a bit, especially when free throws make up a third (3.1) of his points (9.1).
As for PER, Bayless doesn’t have nearly as much free range as the other young pg’s do in their respective systems. Jerryd gets the yank if he makes mistakes, where other guys can play through them. I don’t mean to knock his high PER, in fact it’s pretty impressive. I just think his role, to play effective minutes off the bench, might inflate that metric to a slight degree.
by Ghostface_Przybilla on Mar 2, 2010 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
His game is largely predicated on drawing foul calls, either by driving or on the perimeter. Those free throws inflate his TS% a bit, especially when free throws make up a third (3.1) of his points (9.1).
Do the points earned from Jerryd’s free throws somehow help us win less than baskets from field goals? His ability to draw fouls is one of his great attributes, and that TS reflects this is an argument for TS and against simple FG pct.
Just imagine how good his TS% will be when his jumper improves and.....
…..the zebras start giving him the benefit of the calls.
What matters is Points Per Possession and Bayless is already pretty impressive.
Chris Paul hit 28% from 3 as a rookie and is now at 42%. Jack hit 26% as a rookie for the Blazers and is now at 42%. Not every young PG shows that kind of improvement, but I wouldn’t bet against Bayless given his work ethic.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 1:47 PM PST up reply actions
If Jerryd ever "makes it" as a starting PG he will be bucking the odds
Quick!—name a young PG who was drafted and developed by Portland and who has become a quality starting NBA PG for an extended amount of time…since Terry Porter?
Jarrett Jack? I guess, if you want to call him a PG
Anyone?
Anyone?
Bueller?
I’d like to see Jerryd become “the next TP” (that was my take, after the ‘08 summer league) but I’ve learned to be skeptical re: the Blazers drafting a PG and watching him blossom into a legit NBA starter, over the last 20+ years. Rex has shown flashes, but he’s been inconsistent and Nate rarely plays him alongside Roy without a veteran PG on the floor.
I want to believe. Still, as Reagan said…trust, but verify
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't believe in ghosts or curses.
The Blazers long history of futility in terms of PGs has nothing to do with KP or Bayless.
Bayless will sink or swim on his own merits. Besides I have never been a fan of Reagan.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 5:50 PM PST up reply actions
you just keep telling yourself that
Ronnie’s favorite story was about the kid who diligently shoveled manure out of the stables because he figured “there has to be a pony down in there, somewhere!”
I find that ironic and apropos to Portland’s PG draft history, over the last 2 decades
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The Rockets have a crazy list of PG drop outs.
A partial list, from recent years:
John Lucas
Rod Strickland
Rick Brunson
Rafer Alston
David Wesley
Charlie Ward
Tyronn Lue
Brandin Knight
Mike James
Reece Gaines
Andre Barrett
Mike Wilks
Mark Jackson
Tito Maddox
Moochie Norris
Bob Sura
Steve Francis-truehoop
I don’t know if Portland is all that unique in our PG situation.
by The Running Man on Mar 2, 2010 6:22 PM PST up reply actions
just about every other NBA franchise
drafts/develops their own starting PG, at least one every 10 years
the Blazers are either due, or clueless. KP and Paul Allen both like to keep adding PGs, but finding one that Nate can deal with for more than a few years has been a “challenge”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
How about a little truth in advertizing?
You talk about Portland not developing a PG since Terry Porter and then segway into KP not being able to do so. Exactly how long has Pritchard had? 3, 4 years? And in that time he’s used basically late first and second round picks to select Jack (who I thought we actually traded for after he was drafted by another team), Rodriguez, Tauren Green and Patty Miles. With the exception of Tony Parker, how many ALL-Star PG’s have come out of the bottom half of the 1st round? The only high pick he’s had to use on a PG has been #11 for Bayless and so far he’s given indication of being capable of become a very good player.
Pritchard supposedly advocated for selecting Chris Paul. Since then he’s used the high picks he’s had to select Aldridge, Roy and Oden. To make the point that he is “challenged” at finding a quality PG is to argue that he should have selected someone other than Brandon, LaMarcus or Greg. Perhaps you would prefer Rando Ronjon (SP?) to Roy?
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I don't think KP even picked Jack
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Jack wasn't KP's call, either
Nash was running the ’05 draft, and the decision was made to “trade down” and select Webster and Jack, as opposed to selecting either Williams or Paul
Like you said, if Allen had put KP in charge earlier, the choice would’ve been Paul, and the team would look much different today as a result (and I’d have no leg to stand on re: my “no PGs since Porter” complaint)
You defense of KP’s draft position is justified, but here’s the rub. KP already had Jack and (later) Blake on the roster. Yet every year he added another PG (or two) via the draft. How much of that was KP vs PA wanting players like Sergio, etc on the team is anyone’s guess. I only observe that these players came, failed to blossom, and went. Nate and the coaches were responsible for the developmental side, not KP. Nothing that happened prior to 2006 can be laid at the feet of KP or Nate, I’m just noting the irony of the situation: if BYU is called “quarterback U”, Portland is not the place where young PGs grow and thrive. Far be it from me to cast unfair dispersions on the current coach or GM, but they’ve got a 20+ year-old franchise trend to reverse, and after 4 years of trying we’re left with the hope that Bayless will become the new Porter. Or at least a reasonable facsimile. You go, Jerryd!
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I'll put forth the argument that perhaps KP ...
… treats PG’s much in the same manner that baseball GM’s consider pitching.
A really good PG is hard to find. If you keep drafting for one and sort of stockpiling them, you improve your chances of finding one.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Jarrett Jack ... Jarrett Jack .... Jarrett Jack ....
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Bayless is already better than Jack
And he is going to be much better by the middle of next season.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 9:19 AM PST up reply actions
what? no he's not
and Jack has a WAAAYY better 3 point shot. He’s a better passer and more efficient scorer.
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 2, 2010 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
Bayless PER 15.6 > Jack PER 15.2
Jack is 26 and a fifth year player reaching his prime.
Bayless is 21 and a second year player who only got 600 minutes of PT as a rookie.
Jack had never hit more than 35% from 3 until this year.
I stand by my comment.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
me too
I have faith in Bayless to get better, but right now I can’t say that I think he is. PER is a flawed system, actual shooting %s don’t lie. And not just this year where Jacks are much better, but his career stats are better too.
Jarrett Jack > Bayless
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 2, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
Look at Hollinger Stats on ESPN
Top five PGs by PER: CP3, Nash, Billups, D Will, Rondo.
That seems like a very good list to me. PER is primarily an offensive stat, it may not be great for comparing players who play different positions, but I think it is pretty good for comparing players who play the same position.
Jack has developed into a good player. I just think Bayless is going to be even better. His ability to get to the rim and finish is already near All-Star level. Give him a little better pop-up jumper and a year or two to work on his spot up three and he is going to be amazing next to Roy.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
For the record ...
… I did not specify who I thought Jack should replace (if anyone).
I only am indicating which of the guys that Dave listed that I would like to see a Blazer.
I think the following:
1) Jack would have been perfectly servicable as Portland’s starting PG, had he not been traded.
2) Jerryd Bayless has demonstrated a sufficient degree of ability to understand why KP traded to get his draft rights (even if it is not yet certain whether he’ll be a good PG – I don’t think it is completely beyond him to do so.)
3) I’m happy with the roster we have now (although I’d prefer Blake to Diener).
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I think Jack shows the wisdom of patience
Young PGs get better.
Bayless is a young PG, therefore, Bayless will get better.
I suspect that my steady stream of positive Bayless comments suggests that I think he is the only, or at least the best, guy to play PG for the Blazers. That isn’t really the case. I think Bayless is likely to become very good (based on physical attributes, work ethic, and demeanor); he fits the time line; and he is already here.
What I don’t want to see is the Blazers trade a bunch of assets to bring in a guy who isn’t significantly better than what I think Bayless will be in a year or so. I definitely don’t want to see the team draft any more PGs, because they take too long to develop. At a minimum, I hope the team gives Bayless a full year of steady PG minutes to see how he develops. If there are serious doubts about him by the end of next year, it may be time to pursue other options.
I really applaud KP for his patience over the past year. I think his self restraint has been equally as impressive as his flurry of draft day deals in prior years. In the words of Kenny Rodgers, “You gotta know when to hold’em and know when to fold’em.”
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
I think the decision to deal JJ came down to this
He was at the end of his rookie deal
Nate (and Roy) preferred Blake as the starting PG.
JJ felt strongly that he was a PG, not a combo guard
Rudy did well in the Olympics and was the big offseason target. Sergio was not going to be dealt during Rudy’s rookie year
So, dealing Jack “made room” for Rudy in the guard rotation, and getting Bayless replaced Jarrett with a younger player who wouldn’t require immediate PT
Bottom line, if JJ had not been dealt he would’ve sulked as a reserve, and then he probably wouldn’t have been worth as much in a future (hypothetical) trade as he was on the June 2008 draft day
Now that Blake’s gone, could Jack be re-acquired? Probably not, unless one of Miller/Bayless/Rudy were dealt and Jarrett was given 25+ mpg
I think it’s more likely that Blake will be resigned on July 1 than KP would make a deal to bring JJ back. Less than 5% odds
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
If Blake is resigned I am going to need medication.
Nate would probably do it in a heart beat.
I don’t think KP wants to walk that road again. Steve is too expensive for a third string PG, and he would be in the way of both Bayless and Mills. I don’t think KP would have ever signed Mills, if the plan was to bring Blake back next year.
Bayless is no longer a rookie who can be sent to the end of the bench. He has earned minutes, more minutes than he is currently getting. He is the only PG in the league with a PER above 15, who is not averaging more than 20 minutes of PT.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 5:57 PM PST up reply actions
Recommendation
1. Lobby real hard to get that health bill passed
or alternatively
2. Start saving so you have the money to buy that medication yourself.
:)
If both Andre and Jerryd are here after the summer, I don’t see Blake coming back. If we trade either of them (which I don’t see happening unless it is a really big trade), you’d better duck, because the Blake-erang is probably coming right back at you.
I don’t think Mills is relevant at this point. He’s a long term project, and if we still have him next year, which is an open question in my mind, he’ll probably spend most of the year in Boise, barring significant injuries.
If Steve comes back, the presence of Mills may dictate a relatively short deal, two years with a team option. But I don’t think Patty would at all preclude re-signing Blake. Steve’s shooting makes him a reasonable option as a second PG and third SG, so he’s good for injury cover.
Travis Deiner is an interesting story. He can provide similar injury cover to Blake for a third of the cost, without touching our MLE. And it isn’t as if he’ll be in great demand elsewhere — if we want him back, he’s not going to say no, and no one will outbid us. This move makes it much less likely, IMO, that Blake comes back.
We can use our MLE to bring over Freeland, or ask Travis to come back, or do something else interesting. We might not even use it, and just save the money — if we can re-sign Marcus, this team really doesn’t have any holes any more. Draft a third string center as a project, and stash another draft pick in Europe, and get ready to go after it with the guys we have.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I believe we are the only team in the league without a player on the roster for the MLE.
It will be interesting to see if we actually use it this season.
by The Running Man on Mar 3, 2010 2:52 AM PST up reply actions
If you were a true Bayless fan
You’d want Miller gone, Bayless starting and someone, possible Blake, as the backup.
I think you have a lot of it
I think there was also one other factor. You see, I liked Jarrett, and never joined the “trade him” brigade. But at the end of his last year here, Dave posted an analysis of each player’s season.
And Jarrett had a decent season, but he had not taken a step forward in any way over his second season, and was marginally worse in a couple of ways.
If that happens in a sophomore season, you say “sophomore slump” and shrug it off. If it happens in a third season, you think, “He’s hit his ceiling. Third year players should still be improving.”
This was especially true because Jarrett was more healthy that year than he had been in previous seasons, but his performance didn’t improve.
If you are looking for a PG of the future, in a young player you are looking for improvement. It wasn’t so much the level of Jarrett’s play, but that an upward trajectory wasn’t on display. Between Jarrett and Steve, we’d have had an adequate PG rotation, but Jarrett was no longer looking like he had potential to be a top ten, or even top 15, PG in the league.
So KP helped the roster crunch by turning two assets (Jarrett and the #13 pick) into a player who definitely had the potential to be a top ten PG. It was a “swing for the fences” move, based on the fact that we had A) Rudy coming in, who might be able to cover some at PG if it didn’t work B) Steve and Sergio, if it didn’t work C) cap space coming to help address the position if it didn’t work.
In other words, a calculated gamble with relatively low risk. The likelihood that we were trading away a future all-star was pretty low, given the absence of notable improvement from Jarrett, and the likelihood of Jerryd’s failure destroying us was also pretty low, because we had other functional ways to cover the position.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Jack thought he was a PG, and he was high maintenance
and Nate had a bad habit of playing Jarrett in critical situations, even as he was making some egregious turnovers (stepping out of bounds, jump pass to nowhere, etc)
And while he was a Blazer, JJ could not run a fast break to save his life, which is ironic because everyone believes Nate is a slow-paced coach. In this respect at least, Bayless is a huge upgrade over Jack
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
My PG of the future is Andre Miller
He will be good with his game for two or three more seasons. In the meantime, we should draft a fully fledged PG Nate loves, ‘cause otherwise he ain’t likely to see any PT.
Maybe the coach is the problem? Or.....
maybe the coach will learn to love the PG he has on his bench (Bayless) as he becomes more experienced.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
Bayless was in at the finish against Memphis
Nate likes Jerryd’s game, he’s just training bad habits out of him right now with a short leash.
Some players suffer from that. Jerryd just gets more motivated. As long as Bayless keeps getting opportunities to go back out and try again, a short leash won’t kill him.
Nate wants him to be more than a good PG, he wants him to be great. I think Nate is a killer of some guys, but I think he’s the perfect kind of coach for a guy like Jerryd. Frustrating for Jerryd and for fans in the short term, but in the long run, it’s going to pay off big time.
Jerryd will never be a cautious player, he’ll always be an attacker. But he’s learning not to do stupid in his attacking.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Bayless is the only PG in the NBA with a PER above 15 who is not averaging more than 20 min of PT
I certainly hope you are right that Nate sees Bayless’ potential. Sometimes it seems like he shows very, very little trust.
I do agree that Bayless seems pretty indestructible psychologically. He seems to just keep coming. I don’t often see bad body language for more than a second when he gets pulled.
There is so much that we don’t know about the player’s relationships with each other and the coaching staff. I would love to be a fly on the wall.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
How many of those PGs
are playing behind Andre Miller? How many don’t have to compete with players like Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez for a few SG minutes?
The “trust” wasn’t there at the start of the year, but I guarantee Blake wouldn’t have been traded if there wasn’t some trust now.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Partly I am reacting to Mike Barrett's "Concern Trolling"
It makes me crazy, and borders on unprofessional.
by upper left corner on Mar 2, 2010 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
You know why he's doing that?
It isn’t about Bayless at all.
It’s because we don’t have Steady Hand Steve to come in when Andre goes out, and Mike thinks that’s a huge loss. I think it’s a loss, but a small one. We will very possibly lose a game or two for lacking Blake’s steadiness, and gain back a game or two by having Jerryd’s explosiveness. In the long run, I like Bayless getting minutes this year, even if it does end up costing us a win or two.
But then, I’m not a close personal friend of Blake like Barrett is.
I just ignore it. It isn’t hurting anything, really.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Bedge fans, anyway
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
psh
sigh parker next offseason
this line up:
oden
LA
batum
roy
parker
ahhhhh yeah
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
lol, that would be awesome
someone said that the other day… Fire Nate, get Pop and Parker to come over here…. Now that’s an idea I’d like to see happen.
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 2, 2010 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
if we let joel walk
not option andre’s contract, trade marty for an expiring….it could happen, maybe
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Mar 2, 2010 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
Wouldn’t we be over the cap? Oden will be due at least 10 to 12 mill that summer, BRoy is at 14 mil or so, and LA is at 12 or 13. We’ll have almost 40 million committed to just three players, hard to see how we come in under the cap.
perhaps a sign and trade with lamarcus and rudy
i love lamarcus, but its tony freakin parker
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Mar 2, 2010 1:01 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah,No.
I like Parker but that just trades one need for another.you don’t trade big for small. The only way you trade LMA & Rudy is for a huge upgrade at the PF or some superstar (not realistic).
Batumshakalaka!
Except Joel is a player option...
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
after next season
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Mar 2, 2010 11:53 AM PST up reply actions
?
Joel’s player option is after this season. He’s unrestricted after next season.
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
that's my Parker/Pop pipe dream
are you saying there’s a chance?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
man I hope so
It’s been the best scenario for players/coaches coming here in a long time…. Getting Oden was once thought of as a “pipe dream”.
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 2, 2010 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
none of the above, but
as long as we are theorizing, why not Collison? Where is he going to find minutes when CP3 gets healthy?
As someone that wanted Collison in the draft...
I’m still not sure he’d be good enough for a starting PG for a championship team, while he’s definitely good enough to be a backup. Plus, I don’t see him going anywhere since it;s not like CP3 is very durable. He does bring good, solid D and 3 point shooting to the equation.
I think Harris makes most sense, followed by Conley. I made this argument when arguing for Dre during the off-season, and will make it again: a good team needs at least two guys that can attack the basket from the perimeter, especially in the playoffs. Good teams can take away one perimeter slasher, but they are hard-pressed to take away both guys. Harris can attack the rim and finish, and while Conley doesn’t, he is a pick and roll threat and that makes him valuable as well. (imagine P&R wth Big Greg rolling to the basket looking to tear down the rim!)
For those that argue Bayless can grow into that role, perhaps… but I doubt it. He can’t make all the passes like Harris can and I think his best role is scorer off the bench in terms of his career, much like Jamal Crawford. With that said, Bayless as a starter is still within the realm of possibilities due to passing and ballhandling skills of Roy and Batum.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
he is better than fisher
and fisher has 4 rings
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Mar 2, 2010 11:54 AM PST up reply actions
He also had kobe & Shaq.
I checked our roster. It looks like we don’t.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
Why do people have this expectation that Portland needs a ready made starting PG
right out of the box? That is not a reasonable expectation. What is far more reasonable – not to mention, more sustainable – is to identify and draft good talent and then develop it.
But in the instant gratification, 30 second attention span world we seem to live in, that no longer seems to be an acceptable option. Forget about a guy having to earn his spot and being brought along according to a plan. He has to be a world beater by his second season and anyone who stands in the way of that must be an idiot.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I will just be happy with a healthy team next year.
If that happens this team will be hard to beat.
Batumshakalaka!
besides Billups and a few others
most quality PGs show their chops during their first/second years in the league
even Terry Porter (who was a post player in college) showed enough ability during his 2nd year for Portland to part with Darnell Valentine
just keep going back to all the PGs that the Blazers have drafted over the past 5 years…if that isn’t proof that indentifying and developing a quality young #1 is a crapshoot then I don’t know what is…and for whatever reason, Nate tends to chew ’em up and spit ’em out
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I've always been of the opinion that Jerryd is not a PG.
At the same time, I always supported Jerryd needing PT since he is going to be a good NBA player. While I have harder time thinking Rudy will become a star in this league, Bayless has a chance due to his skill set as a scorer and his ability to get in the paint.
I’ve seen his body of work through U of A and in Portland, and nothing suggest to me that he has the vision and the pass-first mentality of a good PG. Still, Jerryd can become a good combo guard in this league with improved ball-handling and taking care of the ball more… and with ball skills of Roy and Batum on the court at same time, we could still be good starting Bayless. But, having a PG that can see the whole floor and make all the passes is still preferable.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
Defense is the key
What we need most is another guy who can defend well, someone who can match up against the quick PGs in the league and make them work hard.
Who’s the best defender? That’s the biggest question. After that I want someone who can handle the ball, drive like Miller and pass out. So I think all of this points to Harris.
I like Miller right now
He is currently as good in most situations as any of the PGs listed, but he is getting older as well. If I had my druthers I think I would go with Mike C for a few reasons. He is one of the youngest, he has a strong relationship with one of our key players of the future, and he seems like a solid guy on and off the court. He has the physical tools to become a upper level PG in the NBA. I would do a Martell & Bayless package for him without even thinking twice.
OMG I just jizzed in my France
OMGrandpa
CP3 or D-Will
Trade Roy for one of them if we can. Even throw in Webster. What is the point in having Roy to grind it out when the rest of the team is geared towards the up and down game?
Brandon Roy is better than the rest of the team
they need to learn from his example
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 2, 2010 5:34 PM PST up reply actions
And why can't we do both?
Why not run for the majority of every game then slow it down at the end and let Roy finish teams off? Get the best out of all of our guys.
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 2, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions
You want us to be flexible
and have a well-rounded game, or something?
Get that weak stuff out of here.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
That sounds incredible...
…but isn’t he playing himself into a long-term roster spot on the cheap in N.O. (even with CP3 there)? If he had the minutes he’s getting lately all year, he’d be in the mix for R.O.Y., and is quickly ascending that list.
I added him in two fantasy leagues and he’s now statistically my best PG in both. Is that because of the talent on N.O.‘s team or is he really that good? I’m still asking myself that question.
And what do we give up to get him? Rudy+Mills? More?
He’s great, but his value has skyrocketed.
the point
One question that probably ought to be considered before trying to judge the PG situation:
To what extent do you want a pure PG style of play where you have a classic PG who runs the court.
The other alternative is to spread out the distributor role among several players. For example Batum’s ability to generate assists suggests that he may have some ability to play a point forward role.
If it is your team strategy to spread out the distributor task among several players, let us say Roy, Batum, Bayless, then you don’t mind if your PG is not as much of a classic PG.
On the other hand, if you have a good classic PG like Miller as your starter and a “not really a PG” guy like Bayless as your backup PG, I don’t know how easy or hard it is for players to adjust back and forth between a single-guy PG style and a team PG style.
My point guard of the future is....
3 combo guards and a point forward…you may have heard of them: Rudy, Roy, Bayless, and Batum….I really like the Rudy, Roy, Batum combination as starters since any one of those three guys can perform the necessary functions of a point guard, and Rudy and Batum would be great perimeter options as Roy drives and kicks. Then I like Bayless coming off the bench to provide energy and scoring, things that he can clearly do.
I know that this would not be as “stable” as having Andre Miller in the game short-term, but I think the long term payoff would be far superior. Plus, I think both Rudy and Bayless have the desire to get better and to help this team win, so I think this summer Bayless could definitely improve his outside shot, and Rudy could definitely improve his ball-handing and moves driving to the hoop.
Also, I think that if we really committed to the 3 guard rotation of Rudy, Roy, and Bayless, Rudy and Bayless could get the playing time needed to continue improving and I think they would become more consistent. It’s an easy formula (minutes = consistency). I could envision diving up the 96 minutes per game at the two guard positions in this way: Roy (36 minutes), Rudy (30 minutes), Bayless (30 minutes).
I know many of you will be skeptical, but let me just say, “don’t knock it ‘til you’ve tried it”….I really think it will work, but if we legitimately tried it and it didn’t work, I’d shut up.
P.S. I’m not talking about doing it this year, I’m talking about next year. Clearly this year we’re going to try and ride the veterans to the playoffs.

by 

























