Is KP that good of a GM anyways ?
Lemme just start off by saying I have a great deal of respect for Kevin Pritchard.. without him, this team would still be in the gutter, the city of Portland and all of the Blazer fandom owe him a great deal for this Rip City Renaissance. However, in the light of the Penn firing, I started thinking about what possibly could endanger KP's job... the man obviously has done a wonderful job so far, so whats the deal ?
This is when I remembered that Chris Bosh story that went a lil bit under the radar... a superstar basically makes a public statement of wanting to play for your team, but probably wont because his spot is occupied by another PF. But where does KP fit in you might say ? This is where the Vulcans come in... there's a huge difference in mentalities between them and KP. On one hand, our GM knows more about basketball than all of the Vulcans combined, meanwhile the latter have a more business oriented way of thinking. They might see an easily marketable world class player that could very easily be acquired to replace LaMarcus Aldridge, a player of lesser talent, less popularity around the globe, but thats being paid a large sum of money. However KP sees the sentimental side of it, as do we... we would much prefer our team to succeed with the current roster than to have us tinker around with it in order to build a championship team. We enjoy the journey to success just as much as the success itself. But thats were our arguments stop, and when the NBA is seen from the business point of view, to hell with sentimentality ! Even the sports point of view would tell you that Chris Bosh is a better player than LMA, so the only thing telling us not to do it right now is our sentimentality.
And so this is where I ask you... would KP be doing his job by not even considering the acquisition of Chris Bosh ? Can he even let his emotions get the best of him ? I'd like to think that for this team to reach higher planes, not only does Brandon Roy have to show some ruthlessness, other players and even Pritchard need to show it too.
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kp wouldn’t hesitate to trade aldridge for bosh. no GM in the league would. that doesn’t mean he can come out and say it.
by Ben Golliver on Mar 19, 2010 12:10 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
We have no idea what he is considering. Look at the Broncos and their QB situation last season…don’t talk about players you covet, it pisses off your current players.
by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 19, 2010 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Ouch...
that’s a sore spot. But, there is much to learn from the bumbling of the Broncos…don’t fire a popular, successful coach in the middle of a recovery era, don’t alienate/trade/let go of your best players, don’t bring in a young, arrogant, unproven leader, don’t drive off your most successful assistant coach, etc, etc.
i'd like to think that is true
but the fact that Aldridge has been doing fine, and that there might not be a need to upgrade, especially this soon, I dnt think KP would pull the trigger… although we might never have the chance to acquire Bosh again.
This is true
I’m not a GM.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
hmm
turned randy foye into brandon roy
got rudy for cash
got bayless for jarrett jack and change
got aldridge for tyrus thomas and victor kryhapa
picked up the man who will be the greatest french nba player ever
yesssssss
Boom Boom Batum is the greatest Blazer ever... and has the best nickname of any Blazer ever!!!
by Starvin' Marvin on Mar 19, 2010 12:28 AM PDT reply actions
Bayless for Jack looks kind of bad actually.
by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 19, 2010 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions
meh
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Mar 19, 2010 1:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd trade Bayless for Jack right now.
Not a slam on Bayless, I just like what Jack brings to the floor.
Wearing the black band for Jarrett Jack, Ime Udoka, Fred Jones, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye, Luke Schenscher, Shavlik Randolph, James Jones, Josh McRoberts, Steven Hill, Jarron Collins, Michael Ruffin, Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. Sacrificed to the unmerciful god of progress.
Jack wouldn't be the Jack we see now
if he had played the last two years in Portland rather than Indy and Toronto.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
Jarrett would've sulked and dragged the team chemistry down
he wanted to be a PG, but he’s a combo
he wouldn’t have been happy playing behind Blake; JJ and Rudy would’ve clashed for PT behind Roy, as well
I’m not saying Bayless is signifcantly better (yet) but Jack “had to go” in the summer of ’08
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
2 true, larue
Plus did you see how Jack dropped off in crunch time against Portland even when he got back on the floor?
I like Jarrett. But Jerryd is almost as good now and has more up side, better at what he’s good at. So, give me Rex.
I dont want the Georgia Tech Turnover back anyways
[insert witty nomenclature and/or out of context quote from someone that makes more money than I]
by HallelujahHoeDown on Mar 19, 2010 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I disagree.
Bayless is 21 years old this year. Jack was in college that year. He is quite a bit younger, and the rate stats aren’t far apart (Jack shoots at a higher percent and assists a little more while Bayless turns it over less; everything else is virtually even). They even have an identical PER for this season. Again, this is comparing a 21-year-old with a 26-year-old.
While Jack is far more proven because of playing time and would have probably helped more in these past two seasons, I prefer Bayless going forward because he has the potential to be quite a bit better.
by poster on Mar 19, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
And Changed
the whole “culture” in Portland. With all the talk of trades and draft picks, I think people forget the P.R. mess he stepped into also. Every GM makes mistakes with talent, but Pritchard took the disaster that was the Blazers (in every way possible) and turned them into something we can all love. He might get a “B” grade as a GM, but all things considered, he gets a solid “A+” from me.
To me, Canzano is trying to stir up some controversy
in light of the fact that he hadn’t caught on to the Tom Penn issue until it suddenly broke. That way, IF, (a big one as you can see), KP does get fired he can have the pleasure of saying he saw it coming.
And when did Bosh ever say he wants to come here?
a couple of days ago
after we beat toronto… he basically said he admired our team, and that he would like to play here, but that we seem set at the PF position.
I thought that story made a huge deal about an off-handed comment.
And was rightly ignored by many. What’s KP going to do? Make public comments on a weak story and in doing so completely undermine the confidence of our second best player during our playoff run? The idea that KP would not acquire Bosh for Aldridge is one I have trouble giving much credence to.
Wearing the black band for Jarrett Jack, Ime Udoka, Fred Jones, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye, Luke Schenscher, Shavlik Randolph, James Jones, Josh McRoberts, Steven Hill, Jarron Collins, Michael Ruffin, Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. Sacrificed to the unmerciful god of progress.
if we're thinking about the same comment,
my impression of it range from Bosh being polite in declining the idea of coming here with a truthful excuse (nevertheless an excuse) to him showing sportsmanship (after all, can’t look like a sore loser, has to give credit to a team that you lost to) to him just saying something more for the ears of his team (how the Blazers have overcome so much with heart whereas Raptors don’t have any). In other words, an off-handed comment.
I don’t recall how any of what he said can, implicitly or explicitly, be read as him wanting to play here.
andre>jefferson
that is all
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
Andre is > Vince Carter as well.
"What people need to know is that those pictures were taken a year and a half ago, and I've grown since then." - Greg Oden
by dario argento on Mar 20, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I fall a bit on the Journey side myself
call it sentimental or whatever you like, but I really don’t want to get a championship the way the Celtics did…I mean I would happy, but it would be somewhat hollow…I was working with someone from Boston at the time, she was happy as all get out, but she did say it was kinda of a shame the way they got there…
That being said, moving Aldridge for Bosh would be an upgrade? hmmmm…
I am with Sabonis, who knows what Pritchard is considering….
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
It's not the Journey, it's the destination...
As a Celts fan, I can tell you – poppycock! Ainge did a great job pairing his one star up with two others. Sure, he sacrificed some of the future to do it, and it’s looking like their window is closing, as could be expected, but – are you kidding me??
If we had the chance today to acquire two veteran stars who would lead us to a championship this year that (a) we wouldn’t do it? and (b) Porltand fans wouldn’t be going crazy at the parade?
I mean sure, if you can acquire a bunch of young guys at the same time, and can watch them improve, and then finally get over the hump to win, sure it might feel a little better (justify our time committment all these years leading up to a championship), but c’mon…
A title is a title…
not at all saying I wouldn't be happy
it would just be better to get there with these guys. Plus I think if we can get healthy there is a strong chance at a string at championships, a dynasty as it were. As you pointed out, the future of the Celtics is not bright…
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
well, maybe I'm wrong
but we’re paying Aldridge $65 million over 5 years, and bosh is probably looking for close to the max, or $80 million.
not only that, but Roy, LA, and Oden together provide what Bosh could possibly provide individual. LaMarcus is a unique basketball player with a high ceiling that is not to be ignored.
However, I think KP has done a great job, and I absolutely appreciate the sentimentality he brings to the Blazers.
How am I not myself? How am I not myself?
by thankyouforblaze on Mar 19, 2010 3:59 AM PDT reply actions
KP's biggest mistakes so far
not getting more out of RLEC
not upgrading from Nate
not maximizing assets (cap space, draft picks, young talent) last summer
None of this is enough to negate the good he’s done.
Compiling the best young talent in the NBA.
He’s be perfect right now if he didn’t for all intents and purposes take the last season and a half off. This neutral period in talent and asset acquisition allows for teams to meet or pass our talent level.
I love KP
but one thing that always bugged me was that the Blazers’ FO never had Dejaun Blair on their list of draftees. Forget all the knee stuff… they never even had him on their list of potentials… That, to me, has been a discrepancy that has been hard to forget.
I don’t mind that we don’t have him, but to not be on their radar is simply confusing.
Being a Blazer fan is not exactly healthy.
did it ever occur to you this is just after the fact smoke-blowing by the Blazers?
Of course they had them on their list. They vetted him, they scouted him. For whatever reason(s), they red flagged him. Their statements after the fact are to the contrary are almost certainly standard spin.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
I think there were concerns about Blair's previous weight/eating disorders
that, when added to the lack of ACLs, led to the medical red flag
Ben knows, but he can’t say
If any team other than the Spurs would’ve drafted DeJuan, he would’ve been an afterthought. But San Antonio does as much pre-draft quantified analysis as Portland and they thought DB was worth the risk…I understand their championship “window” is more urgent than the Blazers, but every team has to consider the future of their roster, not just Portland
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
It could also be
Management felt like they made a mistake drafting Oden and aren’t going to repeat it. Learning is good, right?
R.I.P. Mark Linkous
too play devil's advocate
1) The RLEC offers rumored were not all that great. Unlike most teams with big expiring contracts, we actually had the option of letting it expire and using the capspace.
2) It is very likely KP doesn’t have the pull within the organization to fire Nate, even if he wanted to.
3) hard to argue with what he got from his draft picks last summer, or the cap space. I guess you could make a case he was too timid in pursuing trades with some of the young talent.
The problem with you theory of “taking the last season and a half off” is that you are presuming good/better opportunities were there that he passed on. We have no credible evidence to support this assumption.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
Number 2...
No matter how much pull KP has or doesn’t have, it seems like it would be extremely difficult to justify firing Nate.
what?
you mean armchair-after-the-fact-Dwight-Jaynes-inspired-second-guessing of a coach isn’t a legitimate reason to justify the firing of said coach?
We have no credible evidence to support this assumption.
We don’t, but Allen and the Vulcans do. So if they’re showing less confidence in KP now than in the past it could be a tacit signal that he’s dropped the ball
Larry Miller gave KP the proverbial “vote of confidence” last night, and that may be a good sign. But the team’s results are still being measured and the pressure will never be off KP or Nate.
This isn’t Utah, where you get a contract for life as long as you don’t screw things completely up
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That's not playing Devil's Advocate...
…that’s stating facts…
I agree with you and am glad I don’t have to write it… Just second it!
what do you mean not getting more out of RLEC
would you like richard jefferson?? you know, the guy we could have gotten, yeah, thats working out in san antonio. and how about that hedo guy.
andre miller has been the best free agent signing
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Mar 19, 2010 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Andre Miller was "available" for a deal in Feb 2009
the last 10 months would’ve transpired very differently had ’Dre been on the team at this time last year. Here are a few plausible scenarios
1) the team might’ve won more or less games down the stretch and faced someone other than Houston in the first round. With Miller and not Blake starting at PG (assuming Nate would’ve inserted the newly-acquired Andre in the starting lineup…which as we learned later is no sure thing) the Blazers might have advanced to round 2. I suspect this would’ve been more in tune with Paul Allen’s timetable for the team’s projected success
2) The offseason would’ve been different without the capspace. No Hedo or Millsap offers. Blake and/or Outlaw might’ve been dealt (ECs) or not. The draft priorities would’ve probably been about the same, but that’s difficult to predict
3) Fall camp probably would’ve been less stressful, assuming Miller came into the season as the proven #1 PG. There wouldn’t have been concern about his conditioning or ability to play alongside Roy
Sure, it’s all woulda, coulda, shoulda…but after Miller was signed last July we learned that Portland had interest in him at the previous trading deadline. We have know way of knowing “how far along” the trade negotiations went with Philly…but if Andre could’ve been acquired for (say) Frye, Sergio and RLEC this “parallel universe” Blazer team might be considered “further along” in the quest for a championship as compared to the current impression that is (allegedly) held by the owner. Regardless of the injury status to the centers.
In Feb 2009 KP held his capspace in hopes of a better summer time FA deal, and to preserve team chemistry. This appeared to be the “right” choice until game 1 against Houston. Since then, this deadline hesitation has come under more scrutiny. Perhaps not by most Bedgers, but very likely elsewhere (Mercer Island?)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Neglecting one major point, T4L
Miller was a free agent this past offseason, so acquiring him would have greatly changed the dynamics behind him coming here. Basices, I’m not so sure that he was really that available at the time, unless we had taken Dalembert’s contract off their hands, too, which would have required a bigger deal than just Raef. Philly was a playoff team, and while they’re certainly in financial difficulties now, Andre didn’t represent any long term financial commitment at that point. Without dumping one of their additional bad contracts on us, it probably made more sense for them to keep Andre, get some added revenue off ticket sales and a few extra playoff games, and then let him walk than it did to give him away at the time.
I’m not saying it definitely wasn’t available, but it’s a more complicated than just saying we could have acquired him back then. Plus, I don’t remember ever hearing the idea floated at all even here, which makes me suspicious about whether the deal was there at the time.
#52
I didn't hear it back in Feb 2009 either
but there are others who said they did, on some rumor websites I suppose
We did learn of Portland’s interest in Miller after he was signed, though. KP, Nate (or both) said that hey had been interested in Miller at the deadline. If I went back and searched hard enough, there’s probably still a quote in an archived article from July
You’re right about the 76’ers wanting to dump a contract off on Portland. certainly KP wouldn’t have had to use all of the RLEC to acquire Miller’s salary. It’s an exercise in futility to go back and try to reconstruct a deal that hypothetically might’ve been acceptable for both sides…but that doesn’t mean that I can let the “there were no good RLEC-related deals” at the Feb 2009 deadline stand unchallenged.
There were deals besides Jefferson/Carter that were considered and not pursued, for various reasons. What we’re speculating about is the perceived lessening of confidence in KP form Allen and the Vulcans. How deep this feeling goes and what (if anything) has possibly triggered it is anyone’s guess, because we can’t know all the details. What we do know is that Tom Penn is no longer a part of the organization and he was KP’s friend and “right hand” man. So there’s no way that anyone at Blazer’s HQ can feel the same level of job security as they did 7 days ago. The gauntlet has been thrown down. Nate/KP may have already known how thin the ice is that they’re standing upon, now the rest of us know more about it, too
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Oh, agreed
There were definitely deals to be had, with the most widely recognized supposed deal being VC and a couple picks for RLEC. A lot of deals people were touting were definitely bad deals as well (Jefferson, mainly), but there were opportunities out there, we just basically kept putting off the decision until our options started to dry up. First by just letting Raef expire, second by not dealing Trout and Blake before their deals became guaranteed and then eventually we just had our $8 million or so in cap space and Miller as the only real guy out there if we didn’t want to wait even longer and gamble that we could have acquired a guy in a lopsided midseason trade.
#52
ask yourself this: do you want John Nash back?
because if the Vulcans kick KP to the curb there’s no guarantee that we won’t get another GM who is about the same caliber as Nash
Kevin wants to stay and finish the job, I hope that Paul Allen and the Vulancs haven’t poisoned the well
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
KP can't be happy about the no big-$ extension and the firing of Penn out from under him
This thing is like a capper to the season!
I'm among the biggest KP fans on this site
I hope that post didn’t come off as KP hating. Assembling the best young talent in the NBA trumps nearly everything negative a guy could do as far as GM’ing is concerned.
Letting someone in the organization talk him into McBob and Byars instead of Marc Gasol ;)
In the 2007 draft alone, the Blazers’ future might have been decided one way or the other. The alternative roster could be:
Aaron Brooks (instead of Rudy, though either pick might work equally)
Brandon Roy
Kevin Durant
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carl Landry
Marc Gasol, Joel Przybilla/Marcus Camby (not accounting for the potential move up for Brook Lopez instead of Bayless a year later)
Nobody knows which one will work better, but it’s interesting to see how even one summer/draft can change everything.
Maximizing the strategy towards having cap space in 2009 was a conscious decision and that got more difficult with the Darius Miles situation. Since they didn’t use the MLE (after Blake) and had few veterans, there also were not many “trade friendly” contracts on board like Dave recently noted (RLEC was almost “too big”).
And don't forget
if we take Gasol, the Lakers dion’t have him to trade for Pau, so they probably don’t put a good enough deal together and stay mired in mediocrity instead of winning a title last year.
Clearly all KP and Mcroberts fault. I blame Duke.
#52
And if Portland had more money to spend last summer (Miles' EC)
they could’ve overpayed for Lamar Odom and further weakened the L*kers
but Darius was lingering around the PF for treatment and I think they felt they had to make him just go away (and hoped they could get out from under his contract earlier)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
KP is fine
Is he “In KP We Trust” and “Pritch-Slapped” and all that garbage? No.
But he’s a good GM.
Not perfect, but good.
by Theghostofsomeonefamous on Mar 19, 2010 6:45 AM PDT reply actions
KP seems to have a problem attracting free agents
But so does Portland as a media market. If you are in NY or LA, there are a million ways to cash on the side on your fame. Here, there are less. In NY and LA are both designed for the young incredibly rich person. Portland? Not so much. Portland is a Keep It Weird, Channing Frye, Walton on a bike kinda town. Just is.
That said, Miller, who’s a basketball purist, wanted to come play here. To me, that was a huge endorsement. And Miller helped get us Camby, another straight up baller. That is the kind of action we should be building on.
To say that KP can’t do it is wrong. But what he’s proven he is good at is the draft. That and getting other GMs fired or in a hole because of trades with him. Other GMs are starting to get wary, so that is getting less effective. And we are not going to be a lottery team any time soon, so he has less to work with.
I will say that the combo of Nate and KP is not always in sync. Sergio much? And now Miller, though he has proven out over nice guy Steve Blake.
I like what KP has done. I would rate him, with his pluses and minuses, in the top 15% of league GMs. That is hard to replace.
Miller helped get us Camby, another straight up baller
I don’t know how Marcus could’ve refused the deal that brought him to Portland, but having an ex-teammate (and Howard) around has probably eased the transition. If all goes well in the next 30-45 days Miller will probably be a part of the “Camby recruitment process” behind the scenes in July
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I wondered about that too
But let it slide because since we had Dre we didn’t need Blake who was used to get Camby…
I dunno if we've seen we got a problem attracting free agents, really.
Yeah, if it’s us or LA, and the pay is the same, they’ll likely go to LA.
But the guys available with cap space, Hedo turned us down, and Millsap and Dre didn’t. I don’t think we really had a problem. Hedo got more cash, and to stay in the East. That’s not a big deal.
The real test will come with the MLE… can we get the best vets to believe in our team giving them a chance to win? That’s when we see how we can pull someone in.
Morty
#52
HERECY!!!
Burn them Burn them!!!
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!
by faith on Mar 19, 2010 7:04 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Results
I haven’t seen anything but definite improvement year after year. Why is that? It’s not Nate, so it must be Pritchard.
My intentions for this fanpost were not really about questioning KP’s contributions and integrity so far.. but more about his future contributions.. quite simply, where does Blazer Management go from here ? I dont believe keeping the roster the way it is will be the solution, so we should obviously be looking at trades.. maybe KP passed on some good ones, maybe there werent any good offers made, or that all of the rumors were just that. What I do know is that we have A LOT of assets that we could easily package for another all-star, so its not that hard for him to get a good offer, especially this off-season. Now I never expected KP to make public statements about Bosh or anyone else right now, im just raising the issue at this moment after hearing rumors about KP’s job being at risk.
I know we (the fans) think we have a lot of assests
but do other GM’s? Probably not as much as you would like. Heck all we could get for trout and Blake is Camby. And everyone thought that other GMs would just jump at the chance to give up an all-star for Travis. Don’t get me wrong, Camby was needed, but it is not like he is an all star. And you mention that there will be offers this off season. Guess what, the season is still going. SO before you decide that KP is not a good GM because of what he may or may not pass up this off-season, why not wait until the off-season.
I think it has been very evident that we as fans here on BE really do over value our players. Perhaps we have grown to expect miracles because of the coups that KP has pulled off in his tenure with the Blazers. Maybe it is time to let KP do his job and when he fails call him out then.
by BlazerFanFromDenver on Mar 19, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
all we could get for trout and Blake is Camby
Turn that around and Clips fans are saying “all we got for Camby is Blake and Outlaw?”
Camby was needed, but it is not like he is an all star.
Steve and Travis are not future all-stars. And they are nowhere near league leaders in any department like Marcus is (rebounding, blocked shots)
I’m not over-valuing Camby any more than I overvauled Blake/Catfish. They were all expiring contracts, and to get a center for a backup PG and a reserve stretch 4 was a coup for KP. We can be sure that his rival WC GMs were not pleased with the news of the deal, and Warkentein was scrambling to get Camby for the Nuggets as news of the Portland trade came down
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
A topic evaluating KP as GM
that doesn’t mention Oden/Durant anywhere in the main post or in the subsequent comments…
The alternate reality forcefield is strong around the Blazer fanbase.
we all know that was out of his hands
Oden was and will forever be the right pick.. in the end of the day its a gamble, and he chose to take a shot at greatness rather than settle for guaranteed mediocrity (and im not talking in terms of talent, but in terms of playoffs and championships)
Yeah, a guy who's talked about seriously as an MVP candidate
as a 3rd year 21 year old is definitely doomed to mediocrity.
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
yea sure
T-Mac did wonders in the playoffs when he was leading the league in scoring back then. Watch Durant try to break out of the 1st round for the next years to come without a proper big man.
Yes, the reality distortion machine is in proper working condition.
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
and I was worried...
that I would finish reading the comments without running into “Oden vs. Durant”! Whew, that was a close one!
Please stop with your insults
just because someone disagrees.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
by ratbastird on Mar 19, 2010 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Sorry if I hurt your feelings, but the reality is that
outside of the metro Portland area, KP’s legacy is going to be that he flubbed the Oden/Durant pick. It doesn’t have to be the only part of his legacy— Dumars emerged from the Darko debacle without too much damage to his reputation, but it always remains part of Joe D’s legacy, the same way Oden/Durant will always be part of KP’s legacy.
I don’t understand your logic that “it was out of his hands”— are you saying that as GM, he was somehow incapable of selecting the guy who is looking like the easy choice as the best player entering the draft since LBJ?
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I think they're saying what people generally believe
that Paul Allen takes a great interest in the draft and would be difficult to overrule, probably
"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy
by Honka Playboy on Mar 19, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
the only scenario that would be "bad" for KP
Is that if Allen had wanted to draft Durant but KP and his quants had convinced him to select Oden, instead. Now Paul could be having regrets that he listened to KP and let the Blazer’s GM and his scouting staff (including Penn?) overrule him
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Oden on the court looked like he could be a pretty dynamic player in his own right
injuries are injuries. And to think that Durant becomes what he is now, while playing under Nate is just an atrocious breach of logic. Durant playing for Nate is essentially Rashard Lewis.
that sounds familiar
I agree with the Lewis comp, since I made it a few days ago
My new comp is that Roy-Durant would’ve been the next Drexler-Vandeweghe. Exciting and high-scoring regular season wing scorers that would’ve led a team exactly nowhere in the playoffs
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
while Durant is playing much better (team) defense this year, he's hardly a standout
Much like we can hide Brandon defensively by giving the tough assignments to Batum, OKC can hide Durant defensively because they have Thabo and Westbrook on the perimeter.
But Roy and Durant playing 40 minutes a night each on the wings would leave them both exposed defensively. Your Clyde/Kiki comparison is a good one in this regard.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
Not true.
Durant is a net plus on the defensive side this season, not someone who needs to be hidden. The team not only scores more when hes in the game, they also give up fewer points.
Folks, KD was a Big 12 all defensive teamer. He gets the easier assignments in most games, but KD is certainly one of the reasons why OKC is so good defensively this season. The versatility of Green, Durant, and Thabo defending on the perimeter and all active on help is what makes that defense go. It’s certainly not the interior defense and it’s not point guard defense – Russ has great potential but he’s not there yet.
Yes, Durant was a horrible defender when he was being asked to play SG his first 1.25 seasons under PJ. That’s going to happen when you take your collegiate PF/C and ask him to try to guard Kobe and Wade.
by howlingfantods on Mar 20, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes... Durant gets hidden....
that’s the point. Of all those players, Durant is easily the worst defender of the bunch.
Durant defending 3s
is easily a much a better defender than Green defending 4s. Large aggressive 4s absolutely destroy the Thunder low-post.
Seriously. It's so freakin obvious
to anyone who watches OKC more than a couple of times, it’s remarkable that as11osu continues to insist.
by howlingfantods on Mar 22, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
They have Green for the spread 4's
Ibaka and Collison for the rest. Green’s better on those particular 4’s than Durant is on anything.
green's better on stretch 4s
than low post guys, but he plays the same minutes against duncan and dirk, so I’m not sure what you mean by “they have ibaka and collison for the rest”. It’s not like they sit Green when he’s sucking, they just live with it and rely on good help from the other guys including KD.
by howlingfantods on Mar 22, 2010 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Although god, the last time I watched
green on Duncan, it made me shiver and remember when we tried to defend him with Frye.
by howlingfantods on Mar 22, 2010 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Im saying that in retrospective..
its easy to blame KP when all is said and done. At that time, Oden was the next big thing, the most dominant big man to arrive to the league since Tim Duncan, and if you look at the recent NBA champions, all had a great big man anchoring the middle. Thats not what im interested in… im not here to talk about KP’s past contributions, but more about how he can help this team develop even more.
15.7 points and 9.6 rebs per game
is now called “dominance”, I guess. I’m still not sure how that’s more dominant than 25.8 and 11.1 per game.
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
"Proper big man".
So the Celtics and the Lakers won their titles because of Kendrick Perkins and Andrew Bynum?
I assure you it’s easier to find a Perkins or a Bynum than to find a Kevin Durant.
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
or Garnett, or Gasol
think of those two squads the year before those two came aboard
"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy
by Honka Playboy on Mar 19, 2010 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I used to argue for trading for Gasol around these parts
and was told that that would be a major downgrade from LMA. So if we already have a better Gasol, then what else do we need as big men?
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, whoever told you that was pretty impressively wrong.
LMA is not nearly a dominant big man. I think a year or two ago, most people thought he would have improved more than he has by now.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I was being a little tongue in cheek here.
Folks around here do claim that, but I don’t think it’s even remotely true. I think LMA is barely above average and that Gasol is a top 5 PF in the league.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Are you kidding me?
Totally ignore Gasol and Garnett?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
So Gasol is a soft PF, according to folks around here.
Garnett is a stretch 4 who never posts up, whose offense is mostly based on shooting mid to long range 2 point shots. Sound familiar?
Garnett’s defense and rebounding is fantastic of course, and is why he’s 10 times the player LMA is. But I thought I was in the tiny minority around here who thought LMA was a marshmallow who didn’t play defense and didn’t rebound? Or has there been a sea change in opinions on that front around these parts?
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I am just amending your point.
The Lakers won their championship because of Gasol, and the Celtics aren’t the same team without Garnett there.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
So we wouldn't be the same team with Durant putting up
31 points on 17 shots as we are with Oden sitting at home injuring himself getting up off a couch either. What’s your point?
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Durant on this Blazer team puts up 20 a game MAX
especially contending with Roy’s scoring and overall game his first two years in the league. After Durant’s absolutely atrocious rookie season, and with so many other options for the Blazers, Durant’s role would’ve started out being a tiny fraction of what it was for the Thunder, and even less of a fraction what he gets now for the Thunder.
So… what’s YOUR point?
Two separate issues. If Nate misused Durant that badly, certainly a possibility, that would be pretty pathetic.
However, Durant is a top 10 talent, arguably top 5, and he’s 21 years old. You can’t have a discussion on KP’s GM career without mentioning that, even if Oden’s injuries couldn’t have been predicted (which could be debated).
I would have made the same pick KP, and I don’t blame him for it, but how Nate would use/misuse Durant is a separate issue from the pick KP made.
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
I responded to the 31 points on 17 shots assertion howling made
There’s about a 0 percent chance of that ever happening on this team.
*shrug* It's possible Nate would've misused Durant
as badly as PJ did. As much of a Nate critic as I am, I don’t think he comes remotely close to what a disaster of a coach PJ is, though. I was stunned that Seattle hired him, when they hired him, and I assumed that it was a deliberate attempt to sabotage their record for a couple of years to yield high draft picks. Whereas I think Nate’s not perfect but is a better than average coach.
Second, Durant has more turnovers than Nate likes, but otherwise his offensive game is exactly up his alley. He’s ok in the open court but basically makes his living on his mid-range game, penetration, and getting to the line. Basically a more efficient Roy offensively. I don’t see any reason why Durant wouldn’t have gotten the majority of LMAs and Roy’s shots.
by howlingfantods on Mar 20, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Because Roy was MUCH MUCH more efficient every year but this one
Durant’s growth would’ve been at minimum stunted, and more likely drastically stunted. Did you watch Rashard Lewis play in Seattle? That’s a much closer reality to Durant here, than Durant taking Roy’s job and having Roy sit in a corner.
What are you looking at for efficiency here?
Durant’s TS% by year are 52%, 58%, 60%. BRoy’s is 55%, 53%, 57%, 57%. Durant’s only year worse than Roy was when he was playing out of position at the SG, which presumably he wouldn’t have been here, both because Nate’s not abysmally stupid the way PJ is and because we had a hole at SF.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
he probably is looking at offensive rating
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
Since when does overall efficiency = just TS%?
I guess Oden is that much better than Durant right?
There’s a serious hole in your analysis of players.
Bigs usually have better TS%
than wings. One of the things that distinguish LBJ and KD from other wings is precisely their incredible efficiency for high volume scoring wings, efficiency comparable in fact to low post scorers.
TS% expresses that efficiency better than most other single stats. Offensive Rating is less specifically targeted to “efficiency” specifically. Things like PER and WinScore are a combination score that only partially includes offensive efficiency.
You still haven’t answered my question. What are you looking at in stating that Roy is much more efficient?
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
PER, Roland Rating etc
TS% is strictly a shooting stat. Everyone knows Durant is a better pure shooter. That’s his only real advantage over Roy (when considering their early careers).
So that makes 0 sense.
You’re saying that Durant could never have produced over 20ppg because he’s less efficient in the sense of PER or roland rating or whatever, but those are gauges of overall production. Are you suggesting that he wouldn’t have been in the starting rotation, because he’d have been beaten out by Martell or Trout, who aren’t exactly worldbeaters on PER?
Because if KD is in the starting rotation, the fact that he wasn’t getting a lot of assists or rebounds surely wouldn’t prevent him from getting opportunities to score, right? I mean trout and LMA suck at rebounding for their positions and they still got plenty of shot opportunities because they can put the biscuit in the basket.
And so shot attempts tend to go to the guy who can put the biscuit in the basket the best on the team— that’s called playing to your strengths. It’s not a perfect measure, but the closest thing to measuring if someone can put the biscuit in the basket is to assess how they can keep their TS% up as their possessions used increase. If KD is the best at that (and he is, better than Roy by a pretty remarkable margin considering how great Roy is at that as well), then KD would be the first option on offense. And yes, that means he’d be averaging over 20 ppg.
by howlingfantods on Mar 22, 2010 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions
pointless debate
judging a guy for making the same pick everyone else in the industry would have made isn’t really fair or reasonable. In hindsight, it appears to have obviously been a mistake. Hard to fault someone for not knowing the future though isn’t it?
Of course life as an NBA GM isn’t fair, and it’s possible that KP could get axed for taking Oden over Durant. In our society after all, someone always has to get “blamed”, even if the true culprit is bad luck or unfortellable future circumstances.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
I must be in the moniority
because even knowing what we know now, I would still select Oden over Durant
The T-Mac comparison is valid, and a hypothetical Roy-Durant combo would’ve been about as dynamic as Drexler-Vandeweghe was, in Blazer history. But Clyde-Kiki didn’t advance in the post season, either…it took the additions of Buck Williams and Kevin Duckworth for the late-80s Portland team to reach the finals
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Mar 19, 2010 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
depends what you like
think of Brandon and Kevin on defense…who could they stop from scoring?
Defense and rebounding wins in the post season, the late ‘80s Blazers won nothing in May/June until the William’s trade
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
but Durant is such an asset
you could just have used him to get defense. If we weren’t happy with Durant/Roy on the wings last deadline we could have done a trade like this last deadline:
Philly gets RLEC, Jerryd Bayless, Kevin Durant
New Jersey gets Marreese Speights, Thadeus Young, Rudy Fernandez
Portland gets Brooke and Andre Iguodala.
So then we have a center AND an elite perimeter defender. If you had to do it again, you’d have to take Durant. Just because he’s such an asset.
Under Nate
Durant would have never blossomed as he is now… we would have traded him for lesser value that you are suggesting, and he would’ve blown up for another team…
but likely true
we don’t exactly play a style or tempo that is apt to allow people to break out
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
Rookie of the year, 3x all star, and 2nd team NBA
doesn’t constitute breaking out in your book? Interesting.
Durant’s a better taller younger healthier Roy. I refuse to believe fans of this team don’t understand how great a player like that is.
by howlingfantods on Mar 20, 2010 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
He's got a superior shot, mostly due to range
but is about as bad a passer as you’re going to find trying to run the show. His efficiency comes at the cost of his 4 teammates efficiency. In terms of selfishness and passing ability he makes K*be look like J-Kidd out there.
Again, I'm just not sure who you're watching.
Durant passes out a lot. He’s not the playmaker that Roy is, but he’s not being asked to be; they’ve got a fine fine point guard in Westbrook there. Durant doesn’t handle the ball nearly as much as guys like Roy, Kobe, Wade, LBJ, who are effectively de facto PGs.
His passing is not a strength but it’s not a weakness. Your evaluations are just not real, man. I know it itches to think of a guy we could’ve gotten getting so good, but I don’t really see much benefit in trying to poke holes where there aren’t any.
He’s also a much much better rebounder and a significantly better defender than Roy is. Roy’s a better passer. In general, I prefer a division of labor between the guy who initiates and the guy who’s the primary scorer— just aesthetically, I prefer teams that aren’t the kobe and the kobettes, the roy and the roybots, the lebron and the king crabs, the wade and the nobodies type teams.
On the court right now, I like Roy a little better just because KD still needs work on turnovers, but Roy’s 25 years old and Kev’s 21. Roy is often dinged up, and is averaging 10 fewer games per season than KD. I love Roy’s game, I think a lot more than most of the folks around here actually, but Kev’s going to have a much better career.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I'll also just mention
that Durant, LBJ, and CP3 are arguably the superstars most beloved by their teammates. You can just watch the interactions between the players and tell how much these guys mean to their teammates. I assure you that Durant wouldn’t be on this list if he was the ball-hog you make him out to be.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Being a ball hog is among his best qualities
because if he passed the ball he’d be a much worse player, because that part of his game is sorely lacking. He’s not a guy you want with his hands on the ball at the end of games. He’s downright atrocious in the clutch, and can only get himself shots. A gigantically bigger portion of his shots are the creation of other players on his team.
If you don't own up to the ineptness that is Durant's passing
I don’t think you’ve been paying attention. At some you have to own up to what a player does and doesn’t do well. Durant’s court vision is weak sauce. Like I said, Durant doesn’t get his teammates better looks because he can’t pass. Thus the stunted efficiency of being a teammate of KD.
I get what you're saying
but if you look at it from KP’s perspective, he would be dealing the #1 draft choice a couple of years later…in retrospect it makes him look like he messed up the choice
The Reds drafted a good-hitting 1st baseman (Alonzo, who’s really more of a DH) a few years ago, even though they have a stud 1st baseman (Votto) who is a franchise cornerstone. At the time of the draft, I said “they drafted Alonso to flip him” and that may happen, as soon as this July. So I understand the concept, but it’s a bit different when you’re the GM who has won the lottery
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Sometimes you have to do that from a pure talent standpoint
if you get the first pick in this years draft, whether you have Deron Williams or Derrick Rose, you have to draft John Wall. Then, you get as much as you can, for either your new rookie, or your current point guard. Drafting anyone else from a talent standpoint is a waste. You can get more in trade for John Wall than you would drafting the second best player in the draft.
What did we hear about what we could’ve gotten for the first pick when we were about to draft Oden? I think someone speculated K*be was on the block. I think Melo was another guy we could’ve possibly got. Drafting a guy, having his value shrink because he’s underutilized then trading him off makes no sense.
I could see some GM taking Evan Turner
if he already had a young all-star quality PG
KP said he was offered superstar-quality players for his #1
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
rumor is we were QUIETLY offered Duncan for the #1 pick
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
the offers were for the #1 pick
who knows who these teams would have picked, but most people assume the majority would have taken Oden.
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
you'd trade Roy a long time before you'd trade Durant.
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
You would never trade either, IMO.
I’m baffled by folks who think two great players can’t play together on our team but other teams are dangerous when they get two great players. Somehow, I doubt GMs around the league are going to be comforted by the bedgers widespread belief that two great wings can’t play well together if LBJ and Wade end up on the same teams next year.
by howlingfantods on Mar 20, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Both of them are very good to elite defenders
Durant and Roy are guys you have to hide on the other end of the court. A lot of their offensive skills overlap as well. Melo-Iverson etc.
there's probably a list as long as my arm
of teams with great scoring wings (who couldn’t defend) that failed to reach the playoffs, much less the finals
not everybody is Jordan and Pippen. They were the outliers, actually. (Not to mention first team all-NBA defenders)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Name some.
And please stop saying that Durant can’t defend. Bedgers are the only people still banging that drum.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Or Roy for that matter.
Roy doesn’t have the primary defensive assignments, naturally, but he’s ended up having to be the primary when we’ve gone to smallball lineups and done well enough. He’s never going to be all-defensive but he’s respectable when we ask him to try.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
You've got to be kidding me
they built a team of defenders around KD so they could hide him. Pay attention. Durant can’t defend even remotely quick 3’s, and even remotely solid bigs. He’s the guy you put on the other teams weakest offensive player.
"team of defenders" really?
Seriously, I’m starting to wonder what team you’re watching. Thabo is the only person who arguably fits that description. Krstic and Collison are marginal at best (collison is pretty good at taking charges, but that’s about it). Jeff Green is ok against stretch 4s but struggles against low post guys. Russell is decent but still learning.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
In what sense did Melo Iverson have overlapping offensive skills
besides both liking lots of shots?
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
well, the reality is Roy would have been traded, not Durant
if the two couldn’t co-exist effectively, you move Roy and build around Durant. That’s just a no brainer really.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
It's not like no one raised the injury prone specter with Oden before the draft.
Plenty of GMs thought Bowie over Jordan was reasonable too. Just because it was a popular position, it doesn’t make it right. It’s not like everyone thought Oden/Durant was an obvious call— yall might notice that one of the guys running this site was first brought to the interwebs attention for a site called draftkevindurant. Plus the guys I’ve mentioned (givony, thorpe, hollinger, simmons, berri). Plus some of the folks around here, despite all the ridicule some of the folks around here endured for backing Durant.
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Revisionist history
Bowie over Jordan was always considered a stretch at the time, you literally cannot compare the two. It’s like with Darko in 2003. You can fault Dumars for taking him over Melo, but there wasn’t a single GM in the league who would’ve taken Wade over him. In 1983, though, probably all but 1 or 2 GMs would have taken Jordan over Bowie. If anything, it’s the opposite of the Durant-Oden comparison, only if we’d taken Durant and then he’d been crippled by injuries.
#52
It might be unfair, but it's the reality.
A lot of GMs have picked busts that were popular picks at their slots. They still took the heat for them, at least in part because you hire a GM and a scouting and analytic team to protect you from making these mistakes. Lots of other people would’ve made those same mistakes? Not really an excuse.
by howlingfantods on Mar 20, 2010 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
When just about every other decision has been spot on
and the one in question thus far has been made by default (injury), you have to opt for the bulk of the work, which in KP’s case is a big net positive.
Fair point.
But doesn’t really contradict my main point in this thread, which is to point out that this decision has to be mentioned in any discussion of KP’s career, right?
I’d disagree about the “every other decision” part. Going after Hedo was a huge error, and we dodged a huge bullet when he opted for Toronto, his failure to do much with the RLEC was a mistake, the poison contract silliness with Millsap was a PR disaster, and the jury is still very much out on the 08 and 09 draft decisions.
If you tally it all up, you have one very good draft in 06, an understandable but very big whiff in 07, and some moves in 08 and 09 that still remain to be litigated. I wouldn’t fire him or anything but he doesn’t walk on water, people.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
You just can't call 07 a big whiff (yet)
Rudy was as good a late selection as there was. And the injury to Oden prevents us from knowing exactly what he is. Also, Durant was an atrocious overall rookie and still looked bad the beginning of the 08/09 season. So far, Oden has been better in his early work than Durant was in his. Oden just hasn’t graduated onto that next level. After 85-86 when Jordan was injured for the whole year would you have called that pick a big whiff? Injuries are not something that can easily be accounted for.
*shrug* You can argue til you're blue in the face
(and you seem to be intent on it) but I’m telling you that the question is pretty much settled as far as the basketball fans outside of Portland is concerned. Jordan put up 28/7/6 his rookie season so people pretty much knew what he was by the time he was injured.
Oden even while healthy so far hasn’t shown signs of being much more than I projected – a somewhat better Alonzo Mourning. KD however is looking like a better Bernard King or a slightly worse Bird. 100% of GMs including our own would rather have a healthy KD over a healthy Oden.
by howlingfantods on Mar 21, 2010 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
In Oden's first 82 games he's got a PER of over 20
Durant in his first 82 games had a PER of under 16.
Even if you look at their whole careers, KD holds a single point advantage despite playing 140 additional games.
Making any conclusion at this point has to have an asterisk directly beside it.
I think when you adjust the difference in team offensive and team defensive efficiency (for KD and Oden), it can still be argued fairly easily that Oden’s net difference will be bigger than Durant’s net difference. And that’s really what we’re talking about here. This teams offensive efficiency was never really the concern. Oden can be a game changing player on the defensive end, and that is what was and is needed.
I know how much you love TS%, take a look at what we’re getting from the position (Batum = 69%, #1 in the NBA). Obviously he has a pretty low usage, but we’re not talking chopped liver here. Offensive efficiency has consistently been elite in Portland, and we’re getting that high number out of a guy that ALSO plays elite level defense.
I brought up TS%
because you were talking about offensive efficiency, and that’s the stat that tracks most closely to what folks mean when they talk about offensive efficiency. I didn’t proffer it, I was asking if that’s what you were looking at.
It is far far far from anything I would use to evaluate players as a whole. The top TS% guys tend to be guys who never shoot except when insanely open, which happens only a couple of times a game, or guys who only dunk and do offensive putbacks.
by howlingfantods on Mar 22, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah, it has to be mentioned for sure.
It was the pick I would have made, and the only way it was a “dumb” pick is if there was major reason to believe Oden would be so injury prone.
The results of it certainly appear disastrous.
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
Does everyone forget about the weeks before that draft?
Pundits were talking about Durant even sliding past #2 since he went into the most important workout of his life unable to bench press 185 once. His performance the first year in the NBA also tainted Beasley, since Beasley was getting compared to Durant as a prospect.
Hindsight is always 20/20.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
false false false
Here are the folks who said repeatedly that they’d pick Durant over Oden: David Thorpe, Bill Simmons, Jonathan Givony (Draftexpress.com guy). In addition, both Dave Berri (Wages of wins) and Jon Hollinger’s quantitative models projected Durant over Oden, although not by a huge margin.
The “consensus” you identify were with the typical conventional wisdom guys, like Chad Ford and Jay Bilas. Anyone who’s followed the draft for the past decade would put the guys listed in the first paragraph over the guys listed in the second.
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Simmons is a reactionist
he does things to sell himself. Because 26 or 27 of the 30 GM’s would’ve taken Oden, he put himself in the other boat. Both Berri and Hollingers models don’t properly evaluate defense, a measure in which Oden was and is leaps and bounds better than Durant. Even in the very beginning of his 2nd NBA season Oden is a 23+ PER guy, while supposed MVP Durant is sitting a just 2 points above that on a team that has been completely and totally built around him.
by as11osu on Mar 19, 2010 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
false false false
Simmons is almost the opposite of what you’re describing. Simmons is almost exclusively focused on pre-pro production and is always outraged that GMs favor physique (i.e. “potential”) over production. In fact, the string that ties together all the guys I just mentioned (Givony, Simmons, Thorpe, Berri, Hollinger) is that their models or assessments are almost exclusively based on past production and not on raw potential.
Whereas the Bilas’s, Fords, and GMs of the world tend to get wrapped up in how great Yi looks posting up a chair or Darko’s drills, without wondering why for instance Oden couldn’t average 16 points in college with his strength and height and length advantage.
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
You need to read Simmons more
I’ve read everything he’s put out the last 3 years. His “potential” argument was the reason he rallied behind the Durant side. That, and it’s an afterthought if you’re wrong, and you’re a hero if you’re not. I called Arizona winning the NCAA Championship as the 5 seed back in 97. Were they the best, perhaps not. Can I make a name for myself by calling that? Heck ya I can. Same deal with Simmons backage of Durant. And the numbers, as you’re arguing don’t account for defense, which is why Hollinger sided with Oden.
With Roy, it was a slam dunk to take Oden. Oden pre-injury, with those stats you were talking about (PER) was ahead of Durant when he got injured THIS YEAR. If LeBron James were to get injured, tomorrow, and Melo goes on to have a full career, does that make Melo the better pick? Of course not. We haven’t got all the info, not even close, let’s wait before we start calling this one, because my guess is Oden is going to have something to say about things before all is said and done.
and the thing that tainted beasley
is that the dude is stoned 99 percent of the time. Has nothing to do with performance and has everything to do with attitude and focus. No one has ever thought to question KD’s attitude and focus.
by howlingfantods on Mar 19, 2010 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions
nobody ever talked about him sliding past #2.
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
and folks list the bayless deal really?
We had indy draft him over them picking one of the following guys for us, or just standing pat and getting one of these guys: anthony randolph, roy hibbert, robin lopez, and marreese speights. Not great players, these, but better than Bayless
id say the Bayless deal is pretty much neutral at this point
can’t really put it in KP’s “good move” column, but you can’t put it in his “bad move” column either. Bayless has at least as much potential for success as every one of those guys you named, though opinions will vary of course. They are all in the same neighborhood. It’s not like we left Brooke Lopez sitting there on the table.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
It was a deal that made sense at the time. I don’t use results based analysis.
Pursuing Hedo was easily the dumbest thing KP has done.
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
I can't argue with that
I can kind of understand it by looking at how well Turk and Howard ran the high PnR in the post season. Somebody at Blazer’s HQ saw Orlando’s success in the playoffs and extrapolated that Hedo could do the same thing for Greg than he had done for Dwight. But the 5/50 offer was too long and for too much to justify the short-term improvement to the Blazer’s front court
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
agreed
Having a point forward like Hedo should still be on this teams wish list. Just not at that price. .
having said point forward is kind of a waste
if the offensive “system” you run would rarely allow them utilize their point forward skills
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
I think the idea was to have him run the show, or at least help run it
while Roy was on the bench. Without 2 legit point guards, you still need that point forward type.
There's absolutely no way that KP doesn't do a deal for Bosh over LaMarcus.
Perhaps at the end of last season there was reason to hope that LaMarcus was going to start to be more of a dominant big man from his better performance down the stretch, but this season it has been the same story. He’s taken until the last half of the season to put in the effort and really hasn’t shown any consistency of wanting to play around the rim except in transition situations where there is no opposition to him getting there.
Bosh is a better offensive player period and I have absolutely no doubt that KP can see this far better than a fan like I can.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
Yes.
Look at the way this team’s roster has changed over the past 4 years, and then tell me he’s not a good GM.
I'm gonna be the only A-hole that owns a Nic Batum jersey that doesn't live in France. Awesome.
If the choice is between KP and whatever Vulcan would install in his place,
You guys should really really sweat if KP gets fired. Vulcan basically set the Seahawks back 10 years in a matter of a few weeks without Tim Ruskell around. I think a lot of the shine came off KP this last off-season (I think you guys way overpaid for Aldridge), but I would have zero trust in Vulcan to install a front office half as competent as KP’s.
does kp have big mans syndrome since the go trade
whats up with his pg and sf fetish. i blame nate but kp is the draft guru. really – a good gm is one that takes credit for everything good and dismisses all the failures and sucks up to his boss, having a constant brown colored nose. his breath might smell alittle too from all the erogeous smootches in places id rather not mention.
PG fetish
KP has admitted to this, but Paul Allen has the same infirmity and that’s how guys like Patty Mills and Sergio Rodriguez get drafted and hang around past their due date
If Portland was a running team it might be different, but with Roy/Nate/Oden the style should be grind it out. Adding players who need an uptempo system to be effective is schizophrenic roster building (it says here)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
i don't understand this
that’s how guys like Patty Mills and Sergio Rodriguez get drafted and hang around past their due date
Patty Mills was the 55th pick in the draft. Sergio Rodriguez was acquired for cash. So it’s not like we’re sacrificing real assets to feed this “fetish.”
And the last time Sergio Rodriguez played a game in a Blazers uniform, he was tied for the being the second best point guard on a team with no NBA starting level pointguards. So it’s also not like we were hoarding a bunch of quality PGs without any use for them. Sure we could have got more than a second round draft pick for Sergio by trading him 9 months earlier, but we would have needed to get a replacement because he was our backup PG at the time.
Sure we could have got more than a second round draft pick for Sergio by trading him 9 months earlier,
Who knows what Rodriguez was worth after his rookie year? I’m guessing it was more than to pay Sac-town to move up a few slots in the draft.
But the roster spot that these players occupy has intrinsic value, as well. At the beginning of this year, Mills’ spot on the roster could’ve been used for a veteran (Udoka, etc) who would’ve helped the Blazer’s weather the injury storm much better than Patty has
My main concern is the disconnect between styles of play. You’ve got Roy and Oden who are grinders, and then you draft waterbugs to come in off the bench and play loose and free? This might sound like an exotic and exciting way to build a roster, but making those mis-matched parts fit together (as players come and go with injuries during the season) sounds like a unnecessary headache for the coaching staff, to me
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Every team has to be able to play differnet games
San Antonio didn’t continually beat PHX because their slow game plan won the day. They beat PHX because they played defense, and could play offense uptempo just as well as the Suns could. If you put yourself in that single minded boat, you end up getting beat by matchups, as the Mavericks did when they lost to the Warriors a couple years ago. Having at least one point guard that can play that style of game, both on offense and on defense is key to being able to win all kinds of games. On a similar note, having a coach that knows when to use what, is just as important. These flaws need correcting.
Defense leads to fast breaks
you don’t need small quick guards to run, and they wind up being liabilities on defense, anyway.
I’d rather make the other coach match up to my size/style, instead of playing small-ball. The tell my physical PG to post up the little guy on the other end. If you want to win in the playoffs, you better bring your varsity, not the JV
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Rajon Rondo Derek Fisher and Tony Parker all 6'1"
disagree with your crazy assertions.
Sometimes you can force other teams to matchup with you, sometimes you have to matchup with them. PHX forced those games with SA into shootouts, and still SA got the better end of it. GS forced their pace on Dallas and they couldn’t matchup. You need to be capable of playing both ways, and with our roster and our coach, we just flat can’t.
Andre Miller is 6'2
it’s not all about height, it’s about what playing style wins championships. If your quick PG is a defensive liability (Nash, etc) and your coach plays a SSOL style (D’Antoni) then there’s no evidence that you’ll ever win a title.
I’m not saying that Nate will ever win a championship, either. But the risk-averse, grind-it-out, slow pace style that the Blazers should be playing with Roy/Oden has a well-proven championship pedigree. And stashing a few waterbugs on the roster like Mills or Sergio isn’t conducive to that style. (It’s more likely that they’re there because the owner likes to see them run around the court really fast during garbage time)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
agreed!
I have been saying for awhile now that it seems like KPs acquisitions (in general) seem better suited to play an up tempo free wheeling style, but Nate’s philosophy seems diametrically opposed to that. Aldridge, Batum, Rudy, Miller, Bayless, Webster, Dante would all fare better in an open court style then they do in halfcourt, yet we our coach doesn’t play that way. In his defense, his best two players (Roy and Oden) are better suited for half court play. But that puts you right back to the same point – if we are going to play half court, why aren’t we acquiring half court players instead of acquiring full court players and trying to jam them into a half court system?
it seems fundamentally that KP and Nate aren’t on the same page. maybe THAT is where the feeling to fire KP comes from. if the team is married to Nate, maybe they want to get a GM who will go get players that fit Nate’s vision?
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
it seems fundamentally that KP and Nate aren’t on the same page. maybe THAT is where the feeling to fire KP comes from. if the team is married to Nate, maybe they want to get a GM who will go get players that fit Nate’s vision?
I wouldn’t draw that conclusion. Not that I think KP’s job is necessarily safe. It’s just as likely that Allen has another GM in mind to run the team, and he’ll let the “new” guy pick the new coach.
KP has assembled a lot of nice young talent, but I haven’t been convinced that all of the pieces fit together into a championship rotation. He’s said the staff has been delayed in making player evaluations because of the injuries (especially to Greg) but that doesn’t mean that Paul Allen has been feeling quite so patient with KP’s cake baking (hence the owner’s alleged comments about the team being “a year behind schedule” last summer?)
Like I’ve written in a few other threads, the KP/McMiilan era could very well be “stage 1” of a master plan to return to the finals, and the next stage may be “managed” by someone different. We’ll see. The fans and media assume that KP/Nate will get a “free pass” this year because of all the injuries. But what if they don’t? That question wasn’t even in the realm of possibilities up until the Penn firing
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
huh?
whats up with his pg and sf fetish.
We already have a pretty good shooting guard. His name is Brandon Roy. Like it or not, LaMarcus has most of the minutes at the PF for a while, and you’d be hard pressed to do better than him through the draft. And the good Cs are all gone by the time we draft. So there’s two other positions in the world, although Batum is on his way to locking one down.
by atomiccafe on Mar 19, 2010 1:31 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
KP is a good to very good GM who deserves to keep his job. He’s not the deity he was once viewed as in Portland but its obviously unfair and a bummer that his national legacy right now is basically the Oden pick Darius email.
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
Oden pick *and* the Darius email
even though one was a pick that everyone would have made and the other probably wasn’t his fault.
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
The email was from Larry Miller, not KP
It was the Oden draft. Oden was the best player if healthy.
Let’s see how Oden comes back before we call this a bust.
snake was talking about national perception re: KP
he said it was unfair
FWIW, the same thing happened to Stu Inman after the Bowie pick. His rep was shot, even though he had made solid selections for the Blazers in other years
I’m hopeful Oden will make it back with a chip on his shoulder, stay healthy and stuff his critics. If Bowie could play in the NBA until he was 33…what’s happened so far to Greg is nothing like what repeatedly happened with Sam’s tibias
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Wow this post made me a little angry
First off it would be SO dumb for KP to insult one of his promising, young and well liked players by talking about how much he wanted to trade him.
Second unless Bosh states several times very clearly “I want to be in Portland!!” it is most likely an off handed comment. Portland is not that desirable a place that a multiple all star would single it out as his favorite destination.
Third LaMarcus is still young and though probably not All-Star material he is very good and already has chemistry with this team. Who knows how Bosh (with his ego) would fit in next to Roy and Oden. My guess is Bosh likes being a clear #1 even if it doesn’t mean he will get any rings. I could be wrong but he wouldn’t get enough shots/rebounds next to those guys and his attitude would stink because he would feel underused (and he would be!!). IMO Aldridge fits next to Roy and Oden much much better chemistry wise.
Fourth and this is probably most important, KP considers every single deal and player he thinks is remotely possible. Especially if they are an all star. Chris Bosh is probably one of the hottest topics (quietly) among KP and advisers, and I would be surprised to learn they didn’t have a few scenarios to get him, no sentimentality about it.
Sign & Trade
I am a huge Chris Bosh fan. Could we do a sign & trade with toronto so they get Aldridge and Webster for Chris Bosh this summer.e
"Good, Better, Best, never let it rest until your good is your better and your better is your best." Tim Duncan
In theory yes. In practice, I suppose the Raptors would rather do a Chris Bosh for Andrew Bynum and pieces sign & trade which was rumored earlier this season if Bosh tells them he will leave for sure. Other teams are possible, but LA might be one where he wants to be. Especially defensively Aldridge + Bargnani would be an awful front court, so the Raptors would look to get a different offer.

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