Sched Ahead and Updated Head to Head 3/15/10, Week Twenty

This will be shorter than the usual weekly update.  No analysis, just tables, mostly.

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  "Cream Puff" Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  "Jawbreaker" Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  "Banana Peel" Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  "Rocky Road".

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 ("Cream Puff" Home), a majority of Cat 2 ("Jawbreaker" Home) and Cat 3 ("Banana Peel" Road), and win some in Cat 4 ("Rocky Road").  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

The jscot Stupid Sched Projections methodology is explained in this post.  Since they are stupid projections, it doesn't bear repeating here.

Yesterday's Update

Last Week's Update

YESTERDAY'S GAMES

1. Toronto @ Portland.  Our defense improved at the end again. 
2. Utah @ OKC.  OKC wins.  K Durant 35 pts, R Westbrook 30 pts 11 asts, OKC shooting 60%.  W Matthews 29 pts (9-11, 6-7 3pt), D Williams 27 pts 14 asts, C Boozer 18 pts 14 rbs 5 asts.  D Williams aggravated his shoulder injury, but still played.
3. N.O. @ Phoenix.  1000 NBA games for S Nash.  More injuries for N.O., Phoenix wins.  C Paul, S Marks, P Stojakovic, J Posey all missed for N.O.  A Stoudemire 36 pts 12 rbs, J Richardson 20 pts, S Nash 13 pts 12 asts.  M Thornton 28 pts, D West 24 pts 7 rbs, E Okafor 15 pts 12 rbs, D Collison 13 pts 10 asts. 

Toronto is now under .500, recategorized.

LAST WEEK

Portland (4-0).  Cat 1 Sacramento (W), Cat 3 G.S. (W), Cat 3 Sacramento (W), Cat 1 Toronto (W).  

Dallas (2-1).  Cat 3 Minnesota (W), Cat 1 N.J. (W), Cat 1 N.Y. (L).

Denver (3-0).  Cat 3 Minnesota (W), Cat 3 N.O. (W), Cat 4 Memphis (W).  

Houston (2-0).  Cat 3 Washington (W), Cat 1 N.J. (W).

L.A.  (2-0).  Cat 1 Toronto (W), Cat 4 Phoenix (W).

Memphis (3-1).  Cat 1 N.J. (W), Cat 4 Boston (W), Cat 1 N.Y. (W), Cat 2 Denver (L).

N.O. (1-3).  Cat 1 G.S. (L), Cat 4 OKC (L), Cat 2 Denver (L), Cat 4 Phoenix (L).

The OKC Blunder (3-0).  Cat 1 N.O. (W), Cat 1 N.J. (W), Cat 2 Utah (W). 

Phoenix (1-1).  Cat 2 L@kers (L), Cat 1 N.O. (W).

S.A. (3-1).  Cat 4 Cleveland (L), Cat 1 N.Y. (W), Cat 3 Minnesota (W), Cat 1 LAC (W).

Utah (2-2).  Cat 3 Chicago (W), Cat 3 Detroit (W), Cat 4 Milwaukee (L), Cat 4 OKC (L). 

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

All Home Games

All Away Games

All Games Against Winning Teams

All Games Against Losing Teams

Back to Back Games Remaining

Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

The Projections

Here is what everyone wants:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but if we want to talk about stupid, you are actually reading this.

End of year rankings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa.  Last week's projection in parenthesis.

1. L.A.  59.6 wins (up from 58.7).   
2. Denver.  55.6 wins (down from 55.7).
3. Dallas.  55.3 wins (up from 53.9).
4. Utah.  52.9 wins (up from 52.3).
5. OKC.  51.1 wins (up from 50.0 in 6th).
6. Phoenix.  50.2 wins (down from 50.5 in 5th).  
7. Portland.  48.9 wins (up from 47.4 in 8th).
8. S.A.  47.6 wins (down from 47.7 in 7th).
9. Memphis.  42.6 wins (up from 41.6).
10. Houston.  41.6 wins (up from 41.4).
11. N.O.  39.3 wins (down from 40.6).

Dallas up, OKC up, Portland up, Memphis up, N.O. down.

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Cat 1 "Cream Puff" Washington, Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Phoenix.  
2. Dallas.  Cat 1 "Cream Puff" Chicago (who are on a back to back), Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" Boston (who are also on a back to back).  
3. Denver.  Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Houston, Cat 1 "Cream Puff" Washington (both teams back to back), Cat 1 "Cream Puff" New Orleans (who are on a back to back), Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" Milwaukee. 
4. Houston.  Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" Denver, Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" Memphis (who are on a back to back), Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" Boston, Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at N.Y.  Now or never, I think.
5. L.A.  Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at G.S., back to back Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Sacramento, Cat 1 "Cream Puff" Minnesota, Cat 1 "Cream Puff" Washington.   
6. Memphis.  Cat 1 "Cream Puff" Chicago, back to back Cat 4 at "Rocky Road" at Houston, Cat 1 "Cream Puff" G.S. (who are on a back to back). 
7. N.O.  Back to back Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Clippers, Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at G.S., back to back Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Denver, Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Utah (who are on a back to back). 
8. The "Blunder".  Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Charlotte (who are on a back to back), Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Toronto, Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Indiana.
9. Phoenix.  Cat 1 "Cream Puff" Minnesota, Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" Utah, Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" Portland.
10. S.A.  Cat 4 "Rocky road" at Miami, back to back Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Orlando, Cat 1 "Cream Puff" G.S., Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Atlanta.  
11. Utah.   Back to back Cat 1 "Cream Puff" Washington, Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Minnesota (who are on a back to back), Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Phoenix, back to back Cat 1 "Cream Puff" N.O.

GAME BY GAME HEAD TO HEAD -- GROUPING OF GAMES

(rehashed from prior posts)

I've listed all games here, but put them into six groups.  I have included as Elite the current top four teams in each conference:  Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta and Boston in the East, and L.A., Dallas, Denver, and Utah in the West.

Playoff Contenders include every non-Elite team within 2-3 games of .500 or better.  I still include New Orleans in this grouping.

If you aren't Elite or a Contender, you are a Bottom Feeder, ten or more games below .500.  Teams in the playoff hunt are going to beat Bottom Feeders at least 80% of the time at this point in the season.  You can't sleep on them, but you should get the W.

I've grouped the games in order of difficulty, as I perceive it.  Most difficult are the road games against the Elites.  Next are road games against Contenders, then home games against the Elites and home games against Contenders.  Finally, you have the games against Bottom Feeders, divided between home and away.

The second game of a back to back is in italics.  If the opponent is on a back to back, it is bold.  If both teams are playing the second of a back to back, it is both bold and italic.

PORTLAND VS. THE CHASING PACK

The more games a team has at the top of the chart, the more difficult their schedule. 

Tie-Breaker

Vs. Houston.  2-2 in season series, this will be decided by conference record.  We are 26-15, they are 23-18. 

Vs. New Orleans.  The series is tied 1-1, so the tie-breaker will be decided by the winner of our game in New Orleans.

Vs. Memphis.  The series finished 2-2, so the tie-breaker will be decided by conference record.  We are 26-15, they are 18-23. 

 PORTLAND VS. THE TEAMS JUST AHEAD

Tie-Breaker

Vs. San Antonio.  3-0 in season series, we win. 

Vs. OKC.  1-1 in season series, two games left.  If tied, they are 8-3 in division, we are 6-7.  If we tie the season series, we cannot catch them in the division.  They win tie-breaker unless we win both games against them.

Vs. Phoenix.  2-0 in season series, one game left, we win.

Vs. Utah.  4-0 in season series, we lose. 

I hope we win our games this week, if we do we will mostly catch Phoenix, perhaps catch S.A., and maybe gain on OKC and Utah.  I don't think we can catch Utah, because they won the tie-breaker, but maybe if they are unlucky.

This will be my last weekly update, and my father probably can't do one next week.  This is fun but takes too much time.  I type too slowly.  I will try to keep doing daily ones, though.  I like doing them. 

If I miss a daily one, anyone else could do it, I won't mind.  The tables are easy, you can just copy/paste from the day before into Excel, delete the games from that day and any empty rows, and then use "Paste from Word" into a new fanpost.  I tried it that way to see if it would work and it does, so you don't need Father's spreadsheet to do them.  The only tricky thing is that it is better to make your Excel columns wide enough before pasting, or it messes up with double-height rows sometimes.  Anyone can do it, if I don't get it done.

Thank you.