A Response to Dave, Regarding Bayless
by upper left corner on Mar 12, 2010 9:48 AM PST
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PrintWhat follows is a repost of a long comment to Dave in his front-page Mailbag. The minute I hit post and saw how much I had written, I felt it was appropriate to repost this as a Fanpost. Apologies if anyone is offended. My point is less about giving Dave a hard time, and more about trying to summarize the case for Bayless' season and future prospects being significantly undervalued by many were at Blazer's Edge. I hope we can have some polite and intelligent discussion below. If you don't have patience to read this whole post I hope you will at least read the last part where I summarize Bayless' performance since the Blake trade. Thanks!
E tu, Dave?
I must say that I find your take on Bayless more than a little annoying. It is fine to disagree, but the manner of your disagreement seems to diminish what Bayless has accomplished and dismiss those of us who have been making logical, statistically backed arguments on his behalf. I don’t think it is fair to lump such arguments under the heading “Next Big Thing.” There is a difference between spouting opinions and attempting to provide fact based analysis.
I have been jumping up and down about Bayless since shortly after he was drafted, because I believe the league has moved in a direction that places a premium on having a PG who can penetrate and score, and because I thought PG defense was one of the team’s major weaknesses. I think it would be fair to characterize most of my posts last season as being about “potential.” You may be right that it is dangerous, or pointless, for fans to try to predict the future. I certainly would acknowledge that fans are frequently wrong in our attempts to prognosticate.
This season, however, I think my posts have taken a decidedly different tack: I have not been talking about potential, I have been talking about what Bayless has been doing on the floor. I believe that you and a host of other fans seem to significantly undervalue what Bayless has accomplished in difficult circumstances:
1) Inconsistent role and minutes: I believe it is fair to say that no player on the roster has seen more fluctuation in role and minutes than Bayless. He has gone from scrap minutes as the 5th guard; to back-up SG (when Rudy was hurt); to back-up PG (when Blake got sick); to starting SG (when Roy was hurt); to combo guard (when Blake and Rudy came back); and now back to back-up PG. He has played more than 24 minutes in 14 games; played between 12 and 24 minutes in 28 games; and played less than twelve minutes, or not at all, in 20 games.
2) Dramatic improvement: Bayless PER has improved more than any player on the Blazers, and more than any PG in the NBA, from 8.7 to 16.0. That rating places him 22 among all PGs in the league. Fifth among the bumper crop of young PGs drafted in the past three years. 20 of the 21 guys ahead of him are starters.
Bayless’ TS% has increased from a weak .485 last season to an excellent rating of .545, which is better than the .531 Brandon Roy accomplished as a 23 year old in his second season; better than the .533 rate of Andre Miller this season. Bayless’ TS% is better than D Rose, R Westbrook, or T Evans three of the four PGs ahead of him in terms of PER. On a Per 36 Minute basis, Bayless is the Blazers second leading scorer behind Roy.
Bayless ability to get to the line isn’t just good it is exceptional. He is averaging 7.4 FTA Per 36 Minutes of PT. I know that many dismiss Per 36 Minute stats, however, if you consider that nearly half of Bayless total PT this season has come as a starter, and if you look at the actual list of players who have accomplished this feat, you see that this is some rare and distinguished company. In the past ten years, among first and second year guards, only five players who averaged more than 15 min/game have exceeded 6 FTA/36: Dwayne Wade, Jerryd Bayless, Devin Harris, Vince Carter and Tyreke Evans.
Without actually saying it, you seem to suggest that you are highly skeptical of Bayless’ ability to become the teams starting PG. You suggest that the team should look seriously at Rudy or Nic as possible answers at the point. I think such a suggestion is extremely problematic.
I would argue that Bayless, even given his lack of experience as a PG, is closer to being a decent distributor than either Rudy or Nic, and closer to being a quality PG defender than Rudy is likely to ever become. Bayless isn’t a good distributor yet, but the stats certainly suggest he is better than many are giving him credit for:
1) Since the Blake trade, Bayless has averaged 5.2 Assists/36 minutes of PT: This isn’t fantastic, but it certainly isn’t terrible. It is very comparable to other young scoring PGs like Rose, Evans, Stuckey, and Flynn.
2) Bayless Assist% at 22.3 is in the same range as Blake’s (22.7) and Roy’s (23.8) and is far better than Rudy’s (13.5) or Nic’s (9.3). If we don’t have time to wait for Bayless to develop improved PG skills, what makes so many confident that Rudy or Nic could make that transition any faster. In addition, Bayless’ TOV% (12.3) is lower than Rudy’s (14.3) or Andre’s (14.4), and only slightly higher than Nic’s 10.6 which isn’t surprising given that Nic handles the ball significantly less.
3) Bayless’ line since the All- Star break has been impressive: Shooting 49% from the field and 7-15 from 3pt. range and over 87% from the line. He has scored 9.5 points per game on only 16 minutes per game. On a per 36 minute basis that would be 21 points and 5.2 assists per game.
I guess what I am trying to say is that people should discuss Bayless based on what he has actually done on the floor this year rather than on some preconceived notion based on his play last year. Bayless is a relatively green 21 year old who is just now being given consistent minutes at back-up PG. The rush to judgement seems silly.
There is certainly room for discussion on whether or not Bayless will develop into an effective distributor. It isn’t certain one way or the other. There is a lot of reason for optimism and at least a bit of patience. Let’s see how Bayless does for the rest of the season before we go discussing trade proposals for other young PGs, who are not any more proficient, or for journeyman who do not have any where near Bayless’ upside potential.
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I don't think that Dave was being down on Jerryd
His response to the question was more about how fans can get overly high expectations due to the youthful potential of certain players.
If we win a title, I promise not to hate on anyone associated with the Blazers for 1 full season - jksnake99
I thought his comments legitimated a lot of the endless and mindless speculation that goes on
…..not so much in his direct comments about Jerryd, but in his speculation about the future of the PG position.
I also think it is a bit unkind and unfair to suggest that all conversations about Bayless are equivalent to the Miller beer commercials. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but they are not entitled to their own set of facts. I sort of think of this post as a Public Service Announcement to try to educate the rank and file of BE about an undervalued asset in our midst.
by upper left corner on Mar 12, 2010 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
Then you could have at least done a rewrite
You literally cut and pasted a fanpost. If you think you have an issue worthy of a fanpost, then by all means, write a fanpost. In a way, you violated the first site rule. It is not much different from a guy starting his own Blazers blog and posting his mainpage posts as fanposts here.
by tominhawaii on Mar 12, 2010 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
but people tend to pick stats
that support their mindless speculation. and ignore stats that contradict it.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
"I told Pau the Lakers never win here in Portland; I think it's great." -- Rudy Fernandez
If you think someone is cherry picking point it out
I actually started going more in depth into the stats to try to determine if my generally optimistic take on Bayless was justified or not. The more I have looked the more I think the weight of the evidence suggests he is going to be very good. If you think I’m cherry picking call me out. Same with anyone else.
Just dismissing all statistical evidence as meaningless doesn’t seem like a useful approach.
by upper left corner on Mar 17, 2010 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Kind of Unnecessary
I love your passion and don’t really care to argue your points because I’m sure you’ll get others to do so and I agree with fajunga. I just don’t think that a comment should become a fanpost just because it is long.
Lots of people don't bother to read through most of the comments,
including myself. This post has enough content to stand on it’s own as a fanpost.
Dunk
by Billy Ray Bates on Mar 13, 2010 6:54 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I still think it is unethical
ULC might type more words here than any other poster. If he would have just reworded it, instead of cutting and pasting a comment, I wouldn’t have been offended.
Unethical?
This post “offended” you? Wow.
by Nick Van Excellent on Mar 13, 2010 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
I was listening to the Mark Levin show a few days ago.
I wasn’t really paying attention until I heard him say, “People like Thomas in Hawaii can’t even defend their position!”
No joke. It made me chuckle.
by Nick Van Excellent on Mar 13, 2010 1:04 PM PST up reply actions
ok, I'll bite, and then expect to get bitten back...
I guess what I am trying to say is that people should discuss Bayless based on what he has actually done on the floor this year rather than on some preconceived notion based on his play last year.
Fair enough, I am somebody that has been less than impressed with JB’s ability to distribute the ball. We all know he can score, but his current skill set is not what the blazers need in a starting pg long term IMO. His decision making and ability to see the floor is sub-par for me at this point. I am not down on him because he makes mistakes, its the kind of mistakes that make me question if he will ever develop into the type of player the blazers need next to Roy. Just looking at last nights game, he took a hand off from LA and promptly dribbled into a trap on the baseline. Rather than picking up his dribble and not panicking, he quickly does a jump turn pass that ends in a turnover. I can live with that mistake, the simple swing pass to Rudy as he is coming out to the 3 point line that ends up about a foot behind him and at his feet is the type that is harder to chalk up as a typical development mistake. The kind of decision I can not stand is the type of play like the one at the end of the 1st. He gets the ball with 5 seconds left and goes mach 5 across 3/4’s of the court and straight into 3 defenders standing around the basket, all the while Rudy is wide open in the corner on the same side of the floor, hands extended begging for a pass. Rudy’s body language after that play seemed to say “come on, man”, as he slumps over and shakes his head. I don’t believe that last type of play is an aberration either.
You seem to use a lot of stats to support your point, so I guess I better try and do the same since what I see with my eyes is generally dismissed. Unfortunately all the numbers you list pretty much only show that he is an efficient scorer, and that is on a team with multiple players ahead of him on the opposing teams scouting report. Using stats to quantify his lack of court vision and ability to create easy shots for others is much harder to do. I’ll try anyway, even though it is likely futile. The best way I can put what I see into some sort of statistical analysis would be to analyze the types of assists Rex gets. I think we can all agree that his 5 assists per 36 minutes is nothing special, so why not see what type of assists he is getting. According to 82games.com, Bayless has 128 total assists, 101 of which came from somebody hitting a jumpshot or a 3 pointer. 27 came on close shots or dunks. 80% of his assists were to jump shooters, which likely comes from a drive and kick, or a swing pass. Obviously, the drive and kick is pretty simple point guardateering. Most players that can attack the basket have this in their toolbox. My argument here is that he produces a poor amount of easy buckets and has very little versatility to his passing game and ability to read a defense. Here is a list of other comparable players that you yourself have mentioned(plus others), and their percentage of assists that lead to jumpers.
Rose – 67%
Evans- 64%
Westbrook- 58%
Conley-51%
Stuckey-62%
Blake-61%
Miller-62%
Roy-69%
Rudy-55%
Bayless-80%
and for fun:
Rondo-53%
Billups-57%
Paul-63%
Nash-55%
Parker-65%
D Williams-51%
Obviously, you would like to see a percentage in the ballpark of 60%, that seems to be where the best pg’s in the league are. This might indicate he doesnt the spread the ball around well, and doesnt create easy baskets for others. I am not sure these stats show that, but at least it is some sort of numbers to back up what I see with my eyes. He tends to make up his mind on whether he will penetrate for a shot or penetrate to pass before he makes his first move. This often leads to forced shots at the rim, which also has the benefit of producing a high free throw rate. It also leads to a lot of blocked shots, 8.5% of his attempts to be exact. Bayless will improve, and I like what he brings to the table as a scorer, don’t get me wrong. I just think he has a bigger hill to climb than most believe if he wants to be the blazers starting pg.
RUDY > MJ
Thank you KP
by Rudiculous on Mar 12, 2010 12:26 PM PST reply actions 7 recs
rec
Nice research. Jerryd has a ways to go—but he’s made strides this year—under difficult circumstances. Like Dave said in the mailbag, the Blazers may not “need” Bayless to be a “low 60% kind” of ball-distributer, like ‘Dre (I’m not sure where Terry Porter would rank on that scale, but TP tended to put his head down when driving to the basket, as well) but if Jerryd can get this percentage into the “high 60s” next year and Rudy/Nic continue to develop their playmaking skills, then that may be “enough” offensive diversity to take the Blazers past the “Andre Miller era” at PG without needing to add another quality PG in 2011-2012
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
No biting necessary. Actually, I really appreciate your thoughtful and thorough response.
One of my pet peeves in the endless PG polemics around here is that 90% of the time (made up stat) the response I get from those who don’t like Bayless’ game, or who don’t think he is even a candidate to be our starting PG, is “he is not a PG, and never will be.” It is tough to have a meaningful dialogue with somebody who simply makes a broad assertion and then does nothing to back it up. Rarely do people actually try to make a substantive argument with any stats. Thanks for the effort.
To a certain extent, we all tend to see what we want to see. Those who are optimistic about Bayless’ chances of becoming a quality PG will tend to remember his good moments and those who are skeptical will tend to remember his bad one’s. Last night, I saw every single play you used to critique Bayless. I agree with your assessment on every single instance, I was really upset with Bayless for his out of control drive at the end of the quarter. It was a real rookie mistake, and a relatively rare instance where I saw Bayless making a mistake very similar to the one he made a few games back when he got chewed out by Nate for not getting the ball to Brandon at the end of a quarter. In his defense, I will say he didn’t have much clock to work with and was going full tilt trying to get a shot or a foul before the horn. Still it was bad.
My only real response is to suggest that you watch Bayless closely. I spend a lot of time re-watching plays in super slow mo so that I can see exactly what is happening. My general observation has been that Bayless doesn’t frequently make the same mistake multiple times, which is precisely why I was yelling at my TV last night. OTOH I could point out the great 3/4 court pass he made to Rudy that hit him perfectly in stride. Ultimately the only solution I have for my own bias is to go to the stats to see if I am really “seeing” how well, or how poorly, Bayless is playing. In general, the stats suggest that he is generating assists at about the same rate as other young scoring PGs.
Your stats are interesting and fit with my perception of how Bayless gets his assists. The real question is what is the significance of the stated stat? Basically you are criticizing Bayless because a disproportionate number of his assists come from jumpers. I see your point, but would like to offer a couple of observations:
1) You are essentially criticizing Bayless for being really good at penetrating. He is better at it than most young guards, so it is not particularly surprising that driving and kicking plays a larger role in his emerging PG skills.
2) You are criticizing him for the style of play of his coach and his fellow second team players. Think about it: A) the Blazers run very few cutters and back door plays; B) With all the injuries, the Blazers have no post players, Howard rarely scores on anything other than jumpers; C) Nate likes to run the pick and pop with both Aldridge and Cunningham, if the bigs never roll, how are you going to get inside scoring? Rudy and Martell both come off screens, but the plays are intended to create open jumpers.
Essentially, you are criticizing him for being who he is and doing what the coaches ask him to do. If he were playing for Jerry Sloan, and generating those kind of stats, I would be more concerned. Bayless does pretty well in the open court, if the team ran more he would generate more assists on the break.
I do agree with everyone that Bayless has a ways to go. Of course he does. He is only just now getting a real chance for reasonably consistent minutes as the floor general. He is only 21. He only played 600 minutes last season. He has played more than half his minutes this season with either Blake or Miller on the floor. He was moved to SG in his one year of college. He is extremely green.
I choose to focus on the improvement rather than the mistakes. I think the stats tend to back-up my optimism, but ultimately only time will tell. Certainly, all of KPs moves so far, suggest that he shares my optimism.
by upper left corner on Mar 12, 2010 6:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Certainly, all of KPs moves so far, suggest that he shares my optimism
Except for the move he made to sign Andre Miller, last July?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Au contraire
Miller is the bridge to Bayless becoming the starter.
If KP wasn’t optimistic about Bayless, he would have kept either Sergio or Steve, or he would have brought in another younger PG. Bringing in an older vet was a statement that he expected Bayless to develop into a starter over a two to three year period.
I am much less certain that Nate shares the optimism. It is possible that he is just old school and trying to force Bayless to play “his way,” or it is possible that Nate has serious doubts.
by upper left corner on Mar 13, 2010 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Bayless is(or should be) a Nate type of pg.
I think the only thing that signing Miller showed was that Miller was a better and more experienced player than Blake. It is quite a big assumption to say that the Miller signing was a way to guide Bayless in as a starter. The truth is that it was a way to get a good starting pg for 2 or 3 years and buy some time to find a solution at the position long term.
I think it has become somewhat obvious that Nate doesn’t trust JB to run the team. He gets about 2 or 3 minutes a game on the floor without either Miller or Roy. In the last few games, Rudy has started running the offense a little bit more, and Bayless a little bit less. I think that benching Jerryd early in the 4th with a 20+ point lead against the kings was a surprising move that really says a lot about where Nate believes Jerryd is as a floor general…
RUDY > MJ
Thank you KP
KP could have signed Sessions if he wanted a longer term starter
He didn’t. Instead he chose Miller.
It is possible that it was only about which PG he thought would be better in the immediate future, but if you watch KP he is always thinking at least 3-4 years ahead. We don’t know for certain, but the most logical explanation for trading Sergio and Steve, signing an older starter was to make room for Bayless to develop.
by upper left corner on Mar 13, 2010 2:31 PM PST up reply actions
I'd hardly call that the most logical.
He may have wanted a different long-term starter than Sessions. As you said, KP is thinking 3-4 years ahead. Could be that Miller was simply the best PG available during last summer’s time of opportunity, and his age made a long-term commitment unnecessary. Maybe KP’s “ideal” point guard wasn’t available, and he’s just biding his time until he is available. The situation on any number of teams could change drastically during the length of Miller’s current contract, not to mention getting a much better idea about all the young PGs like Sessions, Conley, Flynn, Rubio, Harris, etc. who are still too young to know what they’re becoming. It also gives him time to see what Bayless is.
KP isn’t stupid, and he obviously drafted Bayless for a reason. That doesn’t mean he’ll be too stupid to recognize whether or not it’s the best fit with the guys who just signed big/long contracts.
Huh???
Lots of things are possible, but we know that KP went out of his way to acquire Bayless. We know that he has declined multiple opportunities to trade Bayless. We know that Sergio and Blake are gone. We know that he signed a PG who did not fit the long term time horizon for the team.
It all adds up to KP being at least somewhat optimistic about Bayless. I agree that he may decide at some point that Bayless is not showing enough development and may choose to go in a different direction. There seems very little reason to believe that he has reached that conclusion as of now. If Bayless and Miller are the two main PGs on the roster next fall, I think you have to conclude that KP thinks Bayless has a good chance of becoming our long term starter.
by upper left corner on Mar 17, 2010 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm just saying
You said:
KP could have signed Sessions if he wanted a longer term starter. He didn’t. Instead he chose Miller.
I’m saying that doesn’t necessarily have anything at all to do with Bayless. Miller was/is a better point guard than Sessions. We could afford Miller’s contract in our budget.
Also, we don’t know that KP went out of his way to draft Bayless. We know he made some maneuvers to move up in the draft, but for all we know, he was hoping to get someone that went sooner, and Bayless was the best choice at our pick.
Sergio was worthless and we knew it. He’s since proven the fact on two different teams that were nearly ideal showcases for his game. Blake was an expiring contract and we desperately needed a center. Again, you’re spinning events in an entirely Bayless-centric point-of-view.
How do you explain the Miller signing at all, and hanging on to and filling a valuable roster spot with in injured Patty Mills? Those things would seem to indicate the opposite of faith in Bayless being our guy.
Seems you are really going out of your way to spin things your direction
At the time of the draft, KP publicly stated that he got his guy. He has repeatedly gone out of his way to express public faith in Bayless development.
Of coarse, it is possible that it is all an elaborate smoke screen to try to increase Bayless trade value, but given that KP reportedly turned down a deal for Hinrich because Chicago wanted Bayless, it is far more logical to think that KP actually means what he says.
Sessions isn’t chump change, his stats are only slightly behind Miller’s and he is a far younger and likely to be a better defender going forward. Miller was obvioulsly a two or three year answer, a time line that many think will give Bayless time to develop into a starting PG.
by upper left corner on Mar 17, 2010 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
We know he made some maneuvers to move up in the draft, but for all we know, he was hoping to get someone that went sooner, and Bayless was the best choice at our pick.
The Blazers were very high on DJ Augustine, who worked out at the PF before the draft, but he was selected 9th by Charlotte. Bayless was projected as high as 4th in the mock-drafts and (for this reason) he didn’t work out for Portland, who was slotted 13th before the (Jack) deal with Indy. Getting Jerryd at 11 was a pleasant surprise, but that doesn’t mean he was Portland’s original “target”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Massive assumptions without much basis
at least, that was my take on your post.
Perhaps the greatest assumption you make is that Nate’s opinion is the trump card – I’ll go with KP and KP’s public opinion first (he is publicly very high on Bayless).
Besides, if what you say is true regarding Nate’s opinion of Bayless, then wouldn’t that be a major condemnation of Nate’s ability to recognize and utilize talent?
The debate should be Bayless’ real capabilities. Nate’s assumed opinions matter not in the factual discussion – i.e. – Nate’s opinions do not affect Bayless’ ability positive or negative – only his playing time.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 13, 2010 9:00 PM PST up reply actions
Do you remember the timing of the MIller signing?
Summer league, Vegas. Mid-July
KP had been shot down by Hedo and Utah. He was courting David Lee and perhaps making overtures towards Lamar Odom
Meanwhile, Jerryd was playing in the summer league, and not looking very impressive as a PG, by anyone’sobservations. Nate was interviewed on air and said (my paraphrase) “we’ll have to find a way to play to Bayless’ strengths next year. Jerryd doesn’t know when to attack and when it’s best to run the offense” Shortly thereafter, Prunty inserted Pooh Jeter into the lineup and the team (especially Cunningham) immediately began playing better.
Then came word of the dinner with Andre, which led to the Miller signing
I agree that Dre’ was an upgrade of Blake, although Nate took awhile to come around to that idea, last fall. I was calling for an upgrade at the PG position following the Rocket’s series, because I thought that Steve wasn’t going to be “good enough” to get the team far into the post season. I still think Blake would be an ideal backup PG for a contending team, but McMillian overexposed him
The relative point to this topic is this: there was no organizational trust in the Blake/Bayless combo to be an effective combo in 2009-2010 at the PG, during the last offseason. It’s easy to see how the coaching staff envisioned Jerryd’s role, he was going to be a change of pace combo guard to bring off the bench and attack the basket—and those are his strengths. He would also be insurance as a #3 PG (my comment when they broke training camp was “break glass in case of emergency” because there didn’t appear to be many minutes for Rex, if the other guards remained healthy) Bayless was going to have to suck it up and work hard to be ready in case he got a chance to play.
To Jerryd’s credit, he has done that. However, I don’t think the front office anticipated him being in the #2 PG role until the need to acquire a center became so severe that KP had to insert Blake into a deal to acquire Camby. There was a choice to be made, to shore up one drastic area of need by dealing away depth at another. It was a calculated risk for the front office to deal Blake during the midseason, and the outcome for the playoffs is still uncertain. Fortunately, Roy appears to be healthy and the need to rely on Rudy and Rex to run the team will be lessened as the rotation minutes shrink during the post season. Andre and Brandon will be doing the heavy backcourt lifting, and the coaching staff will insert Rudy and Jerryd into games and hope that they don’t screw things up—this is the way it is with all young guards on contending teams, not just #4 and #5.
I’m hopeful for Bayless’ future, he’s made great strides this year versus his rookie season. There are reasons to be optimistic that hewill become the “next Terry Porter” but he’s not out of the woods yet as a PG. The good news is, he’s got Andre to learn from and by the time Miller retires the team may have enough combined ballhandling and playmaking skills for Jerryd to be the right “fit” playing alongside Roy in the starting backcourt, while defending opposing PGs and doing what he does best on the offensive end
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Mar 13, 2010 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree.
I do think it’s interesting that KP says Bayless works harder than anyone he’s ever seen.
The odds of him developing a good jump shot seem extremely high IMO. If he starts hiting from distance he’s going to be pretty much unguardable on offense. The passing part of his game still seems a little iffy, but that might not matter if Batum and Roy can pick up the slack.
by Nick Van Excellent on Mar 13, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions
I think it is a bit more complicated than your presentation here
Bayless got screwed in SL. They recruited two SGs who were a collective 3-24 in the first three games. The SF was a “defensive specialist.” The only guy Bayless had to pass to was Cunningham. He was set up for failure, perhaps not intentionally, but Steve Nash would have had trouble dishing dimes to those stiffs.
KP went after two PF/SFs before he settled on Andre. Even if you are right that there was a connection between SL and the decision to sign Andre, that is not necessarily a sign of a lack of long term faith in Bayless. KP may have simply been concerned that Bayless was not ready in July. By January, after Bayless had played well for half a season and increased his PER more than any player on the team and any PG in the league, KP felt comfortable trading away Blake.
by upper left corner on Mar 13, 2010 2:47 PM PST up reply actions
I think the injuries to Greg and Joel forced KP's hand as far as trading away Blake
Clearing room for Bayless was a biproduct of the trade, not a factor IMO. Would KP had traded away Blake to make some room for Bayless to develop had everyone been healthy? I guess we will never know…
RUDY > MJ
Thank you KP
I think you are grasping at straws in this discussion
-Sergio traded
-Blake traded
-older PG signed
-Bayless at back-up
-Bayless showing rapid improvement
Why work so hard to come up with an explanation that doesn’t suggest that KP is optimistic about Bayless?
Usually, the simplest answer is the best.
Now, if Blake is resigned this summer, that would suggest that you may be right. We will see.
by upper left corner on Mar 13, 2010 3:25 PM PST up reply actions
I dont feel like I am the one grasping at straws here.
Serigo traded- This is the one we both can agree on, Sergio was traded because they felt better about Bayless long term. no doubt about it.
Blake traded- Again, I maintain that this had nothing to do with Jerryd and everything to do with the injuries at center. If given the choice to see Blake go or keep him around while obtaining Camby, Blake would still be a blazer.
older pg signed- Not sure how signing a point guard that pushed Jerryd to 3rd in the rotation is a sign of confidence in Bayless long term. Yes, Miller is old, he was signed because he was the best pg available, not because they were worried about making room for Jerryd 2 or 3 years down the road.
Bayless at backup- Again, this happened purely because Blake needed to be included in a deal that kept Howard out of the starting lineup.
Bayless showing rapid improvement- Yes, he is improved. that doesnt in anyway signal how KP feels about Bayless long term.
Usually, the simplest answer is the best.
The simple answer is that the blazers had money to spend, and were weak at pg. Miller was the best pg available. His 2-3 year contract was about his age, and not tieing up money years down the road on an aging player.
RUDY > MJ
Thank you KP
by Rudiculous on Mar 13, 2010 7:21 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Trumping your opinion is factual evidence
KP has publicly declared his optimism of Bayless’ future. Therefore, it would be rational to rationalize his subsequent moves as Bayless support – rather than any lack of faith in his abilities.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 13, 2010 9:03 PM PST up reply actions
Come on
Do you think KP would come out and throw one of his players under the bus? KP has declared his optimism of every single player on this roster, does that mean they are all in the long term plans? Announcing to the world that Jerryd isn’t their answer at pg long term would be astronomically stupid, which is why that will never happen.
I should say that I do believe Jerryd is in the long term plans. I have no problem with that. This discussion is about whether there is evidence that KP sees him as a long term solution as our starting pg. It is possible that KP sees him like I do, which is a potent scorer off of the bench capable of playing two positions.
RUDY > MJ
Thank you KP
but....Bayless' trends indicate he is more than capable of being an NBA starter - even for a playoff caliber team
He is only a sophomore – and still only 21. He gets knocked for not being a “pure” point guard, but then – who is? Nash is an excellent passer – but what would he be if he wasn’t one of the best shooters in the game?
Exceptionally few point guards project to Bayless’ potential – and that is why KP is high on him.
There is positive reinforcement, and then there is a declaration that Bayless is destined for stardom. Until he tones down the rhetoric, I’m inclined to let KP’s words and actions speak for themselves.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 14, 2010 12:47 AM PST up reply actions
Your position seems possible......
……but it doesn’t seem like the most likely interpretation, IMO.
If you are right, do you expect KP to make a move to acquire a long term starter this summer, or do you expect him to let things ride for another year?
I am curious as to whether or not any of the stat I cited in my post have any impact on your thinking. Bayless overall production certainly suggests that he is going to become a starting level player in the league. The number of guys who have matched him over the past 20 years in terms of: scoring per 36, 18.4; TS% .545; FTA per 36, 7.4; and Assists per 36, 4.6, is very small and reads like a list of superstars. He is the only PG in the league with a PER above 15 who is not averaging 20 minutes of PT/game. He has a better PER than 12 of the 30 starting PGs.
Do you think I am simply playing statistical games? Do you think I am seeing something that isn’t there? If KP projects Bayless as a back-up combo, who can play either the 1 or the 2, wouldn’t that suggest that Rudy is redundant as the back-up SG?
I just don’t think it adds up. Bayless is going to be a starter somewhere in this league. Whether or not he is going to be the right fit next to Roy is debatable, but projecting him as a long term bench player doesn’t seem to fit the evidence.
by upper left corner on Mar 17, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I have read and understood the stats that you have gone to several times
To me, the stats you use to describe how promising bayless is(PER, TS%, PP36),. are the exact reasons why I wonder about his ability to start and be a 3rd or likely 4th option offensively on a healthy blazer starting unit. Nearly all of your powerful stats on Bayless point to him being a good scorer, is that what the starting unit needs? I don’t think so, especially considering the majority of his skill in this area comes with the ball in his hands rather than playing off of other people. In other words, he hasnt shown that he can be much of a complimentary player like Rudy and Batum for instance. His usage rate is cause for concern. Can he put up those wonderful scoring numbers with 2/3’s his current usage rate? Its a legitimate question going forward. The other part of it is do you want to harness in what Bayless does well(scoring, attacking), and put more pressure on him to do things that really isnt his best qualities(running the O, distributing, outside shooting). This transformation will almost certainly have to happen to some degree to fit him in with Roy, LA, Oden, and Batum.
There are plenty of good teams that start complimentary players at certain positions and bring better ones off the bench. JR Smith, Jason Terry, and Jamal Crawford quickly come to mind. If you want Jerryd to fully utilize his current skill set, it would be better to get him a lot of run with the 2nd unit where he can be a top option offensively. A quality 6th man will be just as important on this team as a starting pg. The l*kers have a similar design to their team, and they start Derek Fisher because he compliments the starters. They then bring Lamar Odom off the bench as their 6th man. Which of those two players is more important to that team? Denver starts Afflalo over Smith, Atlanta starts Bibby over Crawford. I think you probably get my point.
You bring up an interesting point with Rudy BTW. As much as I love Rudy and am biased towards him, I don’t think he will be here long term unless he turns into a pg that plays alongside Roy, or the starting pg if you prefer. I think he is closer to becoming that than most people believe, but he certainly isnt there yet. That is another discussion altogether though. My penciling in of Jerryd as a 6th man type really doesnt bode well for Rudy if it comes to fruition. But, its how I see things given each players current skill sets.
RUDY > MJ
Thank you KP
I like my 6th man to be a utility/rebounder type who can score personally
not a scorer that might rebound.
but otherwise I could role with it.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
Wow!
As much as I love Rudy and am biased towards him, I don’t think he will be here long term unless he turns into a pg that plays alongside Roy, or the starting pg if you prefer. I think he is closer to becoming that than most people believe,
Amazing to me that you would consider Rudy a better candidate than Jerryd going forward. To my eye, Rudy does not have the ball handling skills nor the lateral speed to ever become even a back-up PG let alone a starter. Being able to make fancy passes is only one small aspect of being a PG. Rudy has limited penetration skills, he does not have the speed to force teams to bring help.
To me, Rudy is an SG and only an SG. He can play in 3 guard line-ups, but I don’t see him as ever having the strength to consistently play the 3 or the speed and ball handling skills to play the 1.
Even given the limited number of possessions Rudy handles the ball, he has a much higher TO% than Bayless. I can’t imagine that Nate would ever stand for that TO% from his starting PG. Frankly, it kind of boggles my mind that you consider it even possible.
Again, IMO, Bayless is far more likely to improve his distribution skills and decision making at age 21, than Rudy is to develop the quickness and ball handling skills needed to play the point against real defensive pressure.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Rudy and think he may have a significant role going forward, but that role is not as a PG.
by upper left corner on Mar 17, 2010 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions
You misunderstood me...
A) I never said that Rudy was closer to becoming a starting pg than Jerryd. I think Jerryd could be that starting pg, but it wouldn’t take advantage of his skill set, more likely it would hinder it.
B) I also only said that Rudy’s long term future here would hinge on his ability to play pg alongside Roy. Otherwise he gets traded or walks due to a lack of minutes. Chances are the latter happens which is unfortunate for me.
C) When I said he was closer than most people think, you pretty much made my case for me by saying it will never happen. It is at the very least possible.
I promise you I can lay out a pretty decent argument for Rudy as a starting pg next to Roy, LA, and Oden. The two main problems with this theory are obviously his ball handling and defense, both of which can be solved if that were the direction the blazers went. I should also note your response to Dave in this fanpost was him hinting at the same idea in the future. I am not the only one that considers it a possibility.
Also, Bayless has a TO% of 12.6, Rudy 13.9%. Bayless has a better assist percentage and more ball handling responsibilities. They do have different roles, and for whatever reason Rudy is allowed a longer leash in the turnover side of things. If you want to believe 82games.com, Rudy has actually gotten more minutes at pg than Bayless. I gotta say that I find that hard to believe…
RUDY > MJ
Thank you KP
the only way I see Rudy starting alongside Roy
is if Batum develops into a real “point forward”
of course if this happens, there’s no reason that Bayless wouldn’t get the starting nod, instead of Rudy
but Ridiculous’ best point is this…the potential starting lineup of Roy-Batum-LMA-Oden doesn’t need another volume scorer. The best hypothetical “PG” to add to that mix would be a superior defender who can help spread the floor—which is why Kirk HInrich’s name has come up so often in trade proposals.
I think the Cap’n Kirk ship has sailed, but Sessions wasn’t the right fit, and everyone had doubts about Miller because of his poor outside shooting. Bayless and Rudy are the current candidates, but if NJ drafts Wall and Portland desires Harris, then the future starting lineup could include Devin…and then he would have to learn how to play alongside Roy like Andre has
It’s too early to tell, let’s see how Portland’s reserve guards fare in the post season and then how the draft shakes out, first
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I Agree.
Bayless showed the ability to grow into more of a distributor than he has been during the summer league and then the team turns around and picks up Miller. The two things have very little to do with each other.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
Would KP had traded away Blake to make some room for Bayless to develop had everyone been healthy?
No, Steve was a big part of what Nate and Brandon were doing, and they both were very bummed the deal was made. But the need for a center was too great for KP to pass on Camby, Marcus really dropped in their laps and the only ECs that could be used were Blake and Outlaw
I wouldn’t be a bit surprised in Portland makes an offer for Steve in July, KP brought him “back” once, and no bridge was burned this time, either. We’ll see how well Rex/Rudy perform in the post season, there’s little doubt that backup PG is the team’s “weakest link” heading into the pressure-cooker of the playoffs (along with size/strength in the front court) I suspect Roy and Miller will both be playing 40-45 mpg if they can stay out of foul trouble, and we won’t see a lot of Rudy/Rex unless one of Brandon or Andre is also on the floor
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Weakest Link??????????
there’s little doubt that backup PG is the team’s "weakest link"
Your comment suggests that Bayless is barely adequate as a back-up. I take issue with that in a big way.
-Bayless has a higher PER than 27-30 (behind only Robinson, Ridnour, and Calderon) back-up PGs in the NBA.
-In fact, Bayless has a higher PER than 12 of the 30 starting PGs in the league.
-While his Assist % is relatively low it is right in line with that of other young scoring PGs like Rose, Stuckey, Evans and G Hill. Are those guys “weak links,” or budding stars?
-Bayless is the second best scorer per minute on the Blazers, and one of our more efficient scorers
All the hand wringing about whether or not Bayless is up to the job doesn’t seem justified by any of the stats. He isn’t ready to start, but he seems far from being the weakest link.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 8:08 AM PST up reply actions
playoff experience?
Bayless has 11 minutes of post season experience. What he has done during the regular season is all well and good, but if you’re confident that Nate can put him on the floor in a hostile environment against a top-shelf opponent and he will be able to get the team into the offense and create quality scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates, then you’ve got a lot more faith in his abilities than I do. Either that, or you’re extrapolating his regular-season success against weak defensive teams like Sacramento (or facing tired/disinterested contending teams who were playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back) and projecting his improvement into an arena where the stakes will be higher, the pressure will be greater, and where he has exactly 11 minutes of prior experience.
Yes, that’s a weak link. But if it makes you feel any better, I don’t have a whole lot more confidence in Rudy, and #5 has much more “big game” international experience under his belt
So sorry that I said your baby was ugly, I’m sure he’ll get better-looking when he grows up. But the second half of April will be a trial by fire for Rex and the other Blazers, and that’s when a player’s ultimate reputation is burned into our retinas
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Your point about playoff experience is a good one....
…..but many of the Blazer’s rotation guys have very limited post season experience. Bayless and Batum are the two youngest guys on the roster
I certainly would rank back-up PF and back-up center as bigger concerns going into the playoffs this year. Howard is much beloved, but he is clearly a defensive liability, particularly at center.
by upper left corner on Mar 17, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
The only guy Bayless had to pass to was Cunningham. He was set up for failure, perhaps not intentionally, but Steve Nash would have had trouble dishing dimes to those stiffs.
I agree that the SL roster was dreck, I lamented about it at the time. But there’s no questioning the video: Jeter and Cunningham ran the PnR like they had played together for years, Bayless? Not so much
the decision to sign Andre, that is not necessarily a sign of a lack of long term faith in Bayless. KP may have simply been concerned that Bayless was not ready in July. By January, after Bayless had played well for half a season
There was definitely a “no-confidence” vote for Bayless’ (short-term) future as a backup #2 PG when Miller was signed in July. And by the time fall camp was over, Jerryd was the 5th guard, 3rd on the depth chart at 1 and 2. Fortunately for Bayless, Rudy needed back surgery and then Brandon injured his hamstring, this allowed Jerryd to get out on the floor, but he almost never played PG until after the Blake trade (Andre or Steve were usually on the court at the same time, except for the week when Blake had pneumonia)
That’s why I think the jury is still out on Jerryd’s future as a NBA PG, although (like I said) there is reason to be more optimistic about his chances now than at any time last summer/fall. Can court vision be learned or is it a skill that PGs are born with? Can he learn to make instinctive decisions on the fly at the highest level of basketball, after being a scorer for most of his youth? We’ll all find out together. It’s not impossible, and Bayless is a hard worker who will either find a way or bust the wall down trying
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
One niggle....
…in general, I won’t take issue with this comment. I might have chosen different words and used different emphasis but I think your comments are generally fair.
I would argue that it is an exaggeration to say that Bayless “almost never” played PG before the Blake trade. Bayless has spent a lot of time playing a kind of “combo guard” role where he plays PG for some possession and then hands the ball off to Roy, or Miller, or Blake, for other possessions. I think this has been a deliberate effort to give him some experience making PG decisions without actually being the sole PG on the floor. I think his assist numbers reflect this pattern. His Assist% is similar to Roy’s, he creates opportunities for teammates with his penetration. I guess I would argue that he has been “job sharing” with Miller and Blake.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
76 minutes alone in the backcourt with Roy this year
this is the kind of ratio I was referring to. You can claim that the 2 guards are “sharing” ball-handling duties and that’s true in many circumstances (quick quiz: who was the “PG” of the ‘86 era Celtics, DJ or Ainge?) but what I’m driving at is this: how many times has Jerryd been responsible for getting a team into it’s set offense, moved players around and delivered the ball to the player who had the best chance of scoring? Bringing the ball upcourt and handing it to Brandon/Blake/Andre doesn’t count, that’s a complimentary role, and not the “lead” anything.
The reason I bring up summer league is that it’s one of the few times when we saw Bayless on an “island” where he was asked to be the PG and he had no veterans to defer to…and it wasn’t pretty. Sure, the rest of the roster was dreck but he still had Dante and the opposing teams weren’t exactly NBA-caliber either, for the most part. The improvement in the SL offense was immediate once Jeter was inserted at the PG, because Pooh knew how to get Cunningham and Pendergraph good looks at the basket, and the other (marginal) players fed off of that.
So again, other than the time that Blake was out with pneumonia, and since the trade when Bayless and Rudy have been in the game together, we haven’t seen Jerryd being the sole distributor of the ball or the “lead guard” on offense. Since the trade it appears that Rudy and Rex are sharing set-up duties like you describe, and the results have been sweet and sour during those stretches, as we might expect.
I expect that during the playoffs Nate will try to keep Brandon or Andre on the floor to help prevent stretches of offensive stagnation (that we’ve seen crop up during the regular season) that would be devastating during a playoff game. I’m not saying that Roy/Miller are perfect in this area, either, but the tendency for coaches is to dance with the guys who brung ’em to the dance, and shuttle the inexperienced players in and out as quickly as possible, to give the starters a blow. Extended TV timeouts and days off between games will allow the starting backcourt to play more mpg than during the 82 game season
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
It seems to me that you want to have your cake and eat it too.....
…..when it comes to criticizing Bayless as a distributor.
On one hand you are criticizing his 4.6 Assists per 36. On the other you are claiming that he never actually performs distribution responsibilities.
To me, Bayless results in terms of Assists and TOs are a product of the role he has been given by the coaching staff. He has the ball on some possessions and not others, this tends to supress his Assist #s but also explains his fairly low TO #s. Here is my take on Bayless as a distributor
Pick and Roll: B-/C+ He has a great first step and he is decent and making the pass on the pick and pop with either LMA or Cunningham. His timing is occasionally off, which results in some moving picks on the bigs. He hasn’t really been given an opportunity to make the pass on the roll or the slip. Hopefully that will come.
Passes to teammates coming off picks: B
Passing to the open corner off the drive: B-
Open court, fast break: B+ sometimes keeps the ball when he should pass, but overall gets good results.
The areas I see him struggle the most are: 1) interior passing, which he is reluctant to do because of Nate, 2) decision making which is primarily a function of recognition and experience, and 3) post entry passing which is something I think he needs to work on with the bigs and the coaching staff.
by upper left corner on Mar 17, 2010 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
To me, Bayless results in terms of Assists and TOs are a product of the role he has been given by the coaching staff. He has the ball on some possessions and not others, this tends to supress his Assist #s but also explains his fairly low TO #s.
This dovetails with Nate’s comments about the need for the coaching staff to put Jerryd into situations where he can succeed. That is, where his “PG and decision-making responsibilities” are propped up by other players on the floor so he’s free to attack the basket.
Your grading scale may be higher or lower than the coaching staff’s assessment, all we know for certain is how they’re utilizing Bayless when he’s on the floor. He has the ball in his hands, but is he the one directing the half-court offense? I would say no, not really—at least not for the majority of time that he’s on the floor when the game’s outcome is still undecided.
He’s still got a way’s to go before he’ll be given that job, even part-time, and there’s no way to be sure if the front office will be patient-enough to see the Bayless-as-PG experiment play out, while the team is trying to contend and advance towards the finals
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I like how this discussion is going
it’s nice to see a discussion of varying viewpoints. I’m a fan of Bayless’s game and will echo the sentiment of Dave that perhaps we don’t need a true point-guard to match up with Roy. I think there are two ways that Bayless could work as the starting point.
The first is he needs to develop some real chemistry with Roy, because as it is his game seems to mirror Brandon’s in many ways (but, no where near as effective). He’s an aggressive offensive player who gets to the line often and looks to drop off when the help defender appears. I could easily see him developing his court vision enough that if the shot isn’t there he would find an open man as opposed to forcing it.
If Bayless can learn to pick his shots, yet create a constant threat, the ideal would be reached. I believe the hope is that an offense would never be able to relax against those two in part because possession by possession it would be difficult to see who is playing 1 and who is playing 2, in other words, distributor and creator.
As it is now, everyone knows that Bayless is going to charge in and take a high difficulty shot (which often leads to free throws) or get stuck underneath and pass to a wing. It seems feasible with a little bit of burn and trust LaMarcus would be a recipient of those collapsing defenses. With both Roy and Bayless attacking LaMarcus (or Oden) could benefit from the defenses being off-kilter.
The second point about Bayless’s development as a non-standard starting guard to Roy is a must. He needs to greatly improve his 3 point shooting. Please don’t take this the wrong way, I am very pleased at the progress of his shot from last year to this year. Watching him play his rookie year it was unnerving to see him pull even an elbow jumper. Obviously he has progressed or perhaps just returned to the norm. But, if he could make the same leap that Travis Outlaw made before last season everything else would open up for him.
The idea of two combo guards dividing duties at point and attacker would be well served if Bayless becomes a legitimate threat at the 3.
sorry this is rambling, I’ve got to run, but do truly enjoy the debate
If it is purely a function of the Blazers offensive scheme
how is Andre in the low 60%’s?
the team NEEDS to stop being so jumpshot oriented in general. Basketball 101, the closer to the rim the better. If your PG has trouble with the interior passing game then you will not be able to get the ball closer to the rim, bottom line. jump shooting teams do not win championships.
Miller also is a penetrating guard, by the way.
I am not down on bayless or anything, he does have potential, he does do some good things and has improved. I am not at all certain that even his critics ‘undervalue’ him. Most would concede he brings an excellent set of skills to the table, the question mark is does he bring the skill set we need?
That being said, it is perfectly reasonable to have concerns about his ability to develop that inside passing game until the data starts telling us something different.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
I think the truth is somewhere in between
If you look at some other guys beyond the ones Rudiculous listed, you quickly find that it’s pretty much impossible to find anyone over 70, much less at 80%, even pure penetrators/SGs. And a lot of those pure SGs are still significantly higher than others with some transparently obvious reasons beyond their control. Kobe is at something like 50% this year, is Kobe that great a distributor, or is it that he gets to play with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.
Looking at Andre Miller’s percentage’s with Philly also seem to show that being here has a significant effect on this stat. The thing that jumps out is how insanely high his percentage of inside/dunk assists is, over 50% in both of the past two years, so in the past couple years he’s been an outlier on the high end, and now he comes here and he’s pretty firmly middle of the pack, so I would think that the offense is having a decent effect on that.
Of course, when ULC makes the argument that “it’s artificially depressed because of the offense so he’s really not that different”, it cuts both ways. If Jerryd’s inside assists are artifically depressed by playing in our offense, then it’s important to note that playing in the Bulls offense is similarly depressing Rose’s numbers, or Wade’s numbers with Miami, etc., etc. Of course, it’s not like we’re the only jump shooting team in the league, though, so you’d have to factor in adjustments for teams that shoot a similar number of jumpers. By a quick, non-pace adjusted check, I’d guess Orlando, Dallas, Chicago and Miami would be classified as having a roughly similar percentage of their offense as jump shots, per hoopdata, so we’d have to factor in similar adjustments for any guys on those teams as well, although Rose is the only guy listed above that would count.
Still, looking through those “jump-shooting teams” (although I may be wrong, just did a quick skim of them), Arroyo is the only perimeter player seeing decent minutes to come close to Jerryd (70%), although many guys are in the high 60’s. So while I definitely think he’s a bit of an outlier here, It seems pretty clear that there’s a decent impact from the offense so he’s probably not as much of an outlier compared to some of the other guys Rudiculous listed that the “80%” number would indicate.
So while our offense is certainly penalizing him to some degree, pretty much every guy he’s close to on that list is getting similarly penalized by their offenses. Of course, a lot of it really just matters as to the weight that we place on this stat (or the HP post comparing assists on good shots and easy shots). It’s interesting to look at, but it may not be meaningful at all.
I definitely agree with your last two paragraphs, though. I wish that every Bayless discussion didn’t have to center around his viability as a future starting PG. He’s played well this year overall, and I don’t think people who are still dogging on him as playing poorly have much of an argument to stand on. But somehow people think that it shows cognitive dissonance to not also then believe that Bayless is the future answer at PG. I think people with concerns about Jerryd’s potential to be the starting PG are just too easily lumped with the “OMG, HE’S NOT A PG!!! GET RID OF HIM!” crowd.
I don’t think it’s a slight, but my opinion as of now is that Bayless could be a part of a great three-guard rotation for us, but unless the team makeup changes drastically would be best suited as a 6th man/3rd guard in the rotation, regardless of how much he continues to improve. It’s not that I think he isn’t good enough, but more that he strikes me as one of those guys more effective in the Jamal Crawford/Jason Terry/Nate Robinson/Leandro Barbosa type roles. More of a smaller Manu than a larger Parker. He’d still play 26+ minutes and lots of minutes alongside Roy, but fewer minutes surrounded by 4 other effective offensive scorers as well. At the very least, I think he’s much more suited to this role than Rudy is, given Jerryd’s greater ability to create for himself.
Sadly, as I check what Rudiculous just posted above, basically exactly what he said. What I get for writing a long-winded post.
#52
by Royster on Mar 17, 2010 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
great stats
really is the best stat to describe the probs with bayless I see. Percentage of jumpers is because he is so much better at penetrating than all those other guards on the list? That’s stretching it. The main post here is good, but is just as slanted as most attacking him, just way better researched. I think the problem with many of the stats is just what was stated at the beginning, and that is that his playing time and position and role is changed so much. It makes the stats hard to figure without looking more in depth at how the numbers were produced. Bottom line though, is that the team plays way better with miller in than Bayless the majority of the time.
I don't see any stretching
As I stated in my original post, Bayless is exceptional at getting to the line off penetration. He is in the company of guys like Wade, Kobe, Evans, Harris, etc. Given this ability, teams have to bring help to defend Bayless and that creates open jumpers for other Blazers. Given that Portland is a heavy jump shooting team anyway and that our best post scorer is injured, Bayless’ relatively high percentage of jump shooting assists is hardly surprising.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 9:52 AM PST up reply actions
Teams
have been letting Bayless bring the contact believing that his shot is to inconsistent to be a major threat (unlike Tony Parker who’d I compare Bayless to). So Bayless’ penetration has been as effective as earlier in the season. (Also teams are pushing him to the 3-point line)
Bayless and Parker have identical TS% .547 and their PER is close: 16.12 to 17.0
Parker, now in year seven of his career, has a better Assist % 23.7 compared to Bayless at 19.0. Bayless is a better rebounder and will be a better defender soon if he isn’t already.
You might be surprised to hear that Bayless has actually been better from 3 pt range than Parker this season .314 to .300.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Bayless has become easily the most underrated Blazer on the BEdge
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
If you're looking at raw stats it's understandable why.
Bayless is effective in ways that don’t show up in simplified box scores. He has his flaws but he’s better than a lot of people think.
Welcome aboard, Snake!
Just kidding – I realize you’ve been pretty impartial about Bayless this season, and never denied he’s played pretty well. I just remember the endless debates over the summer about whether the kid had any potential based on his performance last year. The projection that Bayless wouldn’t amount to much based on last year’s full body of work was certainly reasonable, but I think in the games when he got significant minutes his play was closer to this season than people might think.
In any event, B-Rex is obviously up and down, but yeah he has somehow become underrated around these parts. I think it’s because his highs have been so high (San Antonio, for example), which causes people to get discouraged when he can’t replicate the brilliance.
In any event, there’s no question the kid has a ton of potential, and if he can ever develop a truly consistent outside stroke, he’s going to be devastating in a Chauncey Billups sort of way. There are few guys who can both hit the three and draw fouls at a high rate (Chauncey, Kevin Martin, to name a couple) – when you can, obviously, it pushes your TS% through the roof. Bayless could be that kind of player.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Mar 13, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
Billups is my favorite role-model for Bayless
At best, that is a few years away, but I think the potential is there.
JB has mentioned modelling his game after Billups and having a friendship with Chauncey. Watch closely, Jerryd.
by upper left corner on Mar 13, 2010 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
Good idea. Bayless is smart, high energy and hard working. He will get his jump shot down.
He has improved quite a bit this year. I like him. Great attitude. The guy is a winner.
I wish his arms were longer for his sake but think he will make this matter little in the end. I’ve grown to appreciate everything he does. Especially since he’s stopped being a foul machine!!!!
GO BAYLESS!
he's gone from horrible last year to useful this year
I’d still take Rose over him though ;)
Firmly in favor of making a coaching change at the end of the season.
Free AK1984
Wow,
You really like Bayless. lol. We can look at all the statistical data per 36 minutes, 48 minutes, hour and ten minutes, whatever. But I have a feeling some people are going to go with what they see on the court. Sometimes he has good games, and the others, not so much. To some people, he SEEMS like he probably wont be able to start as the teams point guard. And thats fine. Maybe he will. But I don’t think lumping him into a group with Vince Carter isn’t really helping much.
Ii isn't so much about "liking," or "not liking." It is about looking at the data.....
……which suggests he is going to be very good.
by upper left corner on Mar 12, 2010 6:55 PM PST up reply actions
There's more to this than data, I think
You’re really, really passionate about this topic, and that’s fine. Nothing wrong with that. I hope you’re right, that JB turns out to be a good NBA guard. That would be just fine.
For what it’s worth, I read Dave’s line about Nic or Rudy playing alongside Roy differently than you did: I thought Dave was suggesting that Roy would be distributing, and we wouldn’t have a PG, per se, so Rudy or Nic could play the 2.
I went back and re-read Dave's comment and think you may be right
I think my frustration with all the Bayless bashing got to me and I sort of overreacted to Dave’s comments. My apologies, Dave.
For a while now, I have felt like there has been a growing disconnect between the common perception of Bayless and his actual play on the floor. This post was an attempt to get folks to re-examine their assumptions. It was also an attempt to go look up the date to see if my perceptions were justified by the numbers.
You are right that I am passionate about the subject. I think the long term success of the team will largely be determined by how successful Oden, Batum, and Bayless are in fitting in around Roy and LMA. Almost everyone can “see” G.O. and Nic’s potential. I think many miss just how good Bayless has been and how good he is likely to become, I have sort of specialized in watching the PGs over the past three seasons.
Unfortunately, I think I have been dismissed by many as “a fanboy,” rather than being viewed as someone who has taken the time to really look at the PG position.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 8:38 AM PST up reply actions
again, I don't think don't appreciate what he can do
it is more, is what he can do what we need?
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
so you are totally objective, and really have no feelings for him other
than what the data suggest? I really do appreciate all the work you put in though. Good stuff.
Not sure how to answer.....
……I think most of us like to be “right.” I thought Bayless was going to be good when many dismissed him as a bust. I was also critical of both Sergio and Blake because I thought both were limited on offense and deficient on defense. The more I participated in the arguments over the different PGs, I suppose the more invested I became in my own position.
I don’t know Bayless, I have never met Bayless, I have never e-mailed or conversed with Bayless, but I do root for him to do well, and I do watch him more closely than any other player. Part of the reason that I have delved into the stats was to try to check my own assumptions and evaluate whether, or not, my optimism was well placed.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
Nice post Jerryd!
At least Upper Left Corner isn’t as obvious as Arizona Wildcat!
Ridicule is the refuge of those who can't sustain a meaningful conversation.
by upper left corner on Mar 12, 2010 6:56 PM PST up reply actions
My eyeball test says Bayless is only good at driving, chucking, getting fouled, and scowling.
Is there a way to prove that I’m wrong? I would like to be a fan of his.
Free prezofdeath
My eyeball test says that your post contains nothing other than opinion.
I would be happy to have a meaningful discussion.
by upper left corner on Mar 12, 2010 6:57 PM PST up reply actions
Bayless is the Blazer's Official Jekyll and Hyde...
I like Jerryd, love his compeititive spirit, but am not sold on him leading a championship team.
He’s been more inconsistent than his minutes, IMO.
When he does the dribble through the legs twice go up strong J from 20’ out, like he did twice in a row last night, he looks really good…
When he jumps into the air without a clue where the ball is going, he doesn’t look so good… When he whines and pouts shouts ‘hey’, or does his arrogant strut (which he seems to be doing less often lately, to his credit), he doesn’t do himself any favors..
Lately, I’ve noticed that he’s getting a lot more attention at the rim (sometimes meeting 2 or 3 bigger guys up there near the hoop), and seems to be getting a lot more shots blocked lately. I believe this is because teams have scouted Jerryd, and are taking away his kamikaze attacks of the basket as best they can…
Now that Jerryd’s signature move is being stuffed more than dunked, it’d be very nice to see him pass the ball on the way to the hoop once in a while…
In short, jury is still out. Which is why talk naturally leads to future expectations. Would I sign him to a long-term deal right now? No. Would I when his contract is up? Dunno yet…
Stats don't back up your comments
Bayless has shot almost 50% since the All-Star break and over 45% from 3.
Regarding consistency, Ben’s Shake chart showed that Bayless and Howard have had the most inconsistent minutes of any players on the team, and both have actually been less inconsistent than their minutes.
I gotta say it is frustrating to spend a long time writing a post filled with stats and then have a bunch of comments that indicate that folks don’t even bother to read the original post, or if the do, the stats have just bounced off their brains. I am not trying to bang on you personally, just expressing general frustration.
by upper left corner on Mar 13, 2010 3:44 PM PST up reply actions
Well, if you can cut and paste from Dave's mailbag...so can I
You suggest that the team should look seriously at Rudy or Nic as possible answers at the point.
"The point" is a nebulous term. Unless your team has a traditional PG, then the playmaking will get done (or not) from a variety of sources. In the NBA, you are who you guard, and by necessity Jerryd will defend opposing PGs. That doesn’t automatically make him a "PG" on offense, however. What Dave is saying (or how I read his comments) is that Portland could very well have a "PG by committee" in years to come, with passes leading to baskets being made from players who defend the SG and SFs positions on the floor. (Greg Oden may also develop into a distributer of the ball from the post—we saw flashes of that earlier this year)
There’s no need for anyone to be "defensive" about Bayless’ status as a "shooting guard in a PG’s body" That’s what Terry Porter was, back in the day. And many other great NBA "combo" guards have gone on to win championships. The goal shouldn’t be to turn Bayless into Steve Blake (pass-first, risk-averse, etc) but to integrate Bayless’ skillset into the lineup while winning ballgames. We’ve seen this process succeed fairly well during the challenges of this season, as his stats reflect. He was thrown into the deep end of the pool and has found a way to survive, and even flourish at times.
But for the Blazer’s offense to click in the future, the passing skills of Fernandez and Batum (as well as Roy and Oden, etc) will need to be developed and the team will need the veteran leadership of Miller for at least one more season. Jerryd will continue to get his opportunities (I suspect that’s part of why Blake was dealt) and if Bayless is the right "fit" for the future starting lineup he’ll eventually replace Andre. But to say he will "for sure" at this juncture is to fall into the kind of "fortune telling" that Dave spoke about during the mailbag
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Dave really suggested Rudy and Nic at the point?
I am amazed by that. I will have to go find what he said. Neither guy is remotely capable enough as a ball handler. Might as well put Lamarcus at the point.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Mar 13, 2010 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Just read the mailbag...
I retract the criticism. Dave’s comment about Rudy and Nic was perfectly reasonable. He wasn’t saying they’re going to run the point.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Mar 13, 2010 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
PG by committee was my term
I think folks are hung up with the term PG, and the fact that Portland “needs” to find a traditional PG to replace Andre in a year or two. Bayless can defend PGs, and it’s possible that the team will have enough ballhandling and playmaking skills from Roy, Rudy, Batum as well as Jerryd to not need to acquire another “traditional PG” in 2011-2012. Time will tell, but speculating about “who” the PGOTF will be (or saying that he needs to be acquired this offseason or even next February) is premature, IMO
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Makes sense.
Tony Parker was pretty darn low on the “pure PG” scale. As long as Ginobli and Duncan were keeping the ball moving it didn’t matter.
It’s all in how you use him.
by Nick Van Excellent on Mar 13, 2010 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
Look what Bayless is doing to us!
not only is he ruining the chemistry of our team (I have heard from unreliable sources, that he punched Brandon Roy’s pet Gerbil in the face.), He is also ruining the Harmony of Blazersedge, this is why he must go….
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
Not to mention people have seem to come down with an acute case of Baylessites
Symptoms include – Nausea at the site of Bayless haters, Long winded posts and rebuttals, Shrinking arms, and an enlarged Bayless tattoo on ones back…
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
RE: Batum
You mention how Batum should have a lower TOV% because he handles the ball significantly less, but completely ignore his usage% and the fact that he is used primarily as a spot up shooter when criticizing his assist%. Bayless is good, but he has a lot to learn because honestly he’s about 5x the player at SG rather than PG right now.
Is he?
my dog in this fight is how people support their opinions. You assert that Bayless is superior as a SG vs. PG – but there really isn’t any basis to the idea that Bayless isn’t a point guard.
Bayless defends PG’s better than anyone on the roster. Bayless dribbles, runs the fast break, runs the pick and roll, shoots when open, gives the ball up, drives the lane, etc, etc.
Point guard has a narrow definition: a guard who initiates offense with the ball in his hands.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 13, 2010 9:08 PM PST up reply actions
Generally agree except Nic is the defender of choice for Nate on PG, SG, SF when needed
I do see Jerryd’s improvement in this area and respect him as perhaps the 2nd best.
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
depends on who is in the game, I think
Nic doesn’t guard PG’s that often – especially when Bayless is in the game.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 14, 2010 12:48 AM PST up reply actions
Well its clear to me that Nate has no idea that
Bayless is any good. He does not play Bayless as the backup PG, not recently anyway. If you have watched the recent games then you will have seen Rudy coming on before Jerryd and playing the Point. Why? Has Rudy done anything to suggest that he can play PG? I don’t think so! What we need first and foremost from our PGs is someone to defend our PGs. Rudy clearly can’t and his ball-handling is very suspect. He can’t do the drive and dish but he’s great at the spectacular passes that happen once every 3-5 games. When was the last time, can anyone remember? Don’t bite my head off, I know that Bayless also plays PG but not exclusively. He gets less minutes but produces just as much as Rudy. Why is it that Rudy gets 25 minutes a game and Bayless gets 15? I figure that KP wants to see Rudy more and find out if he can play with Roy or not. Well its clear that he can’t.
I guess this has become more about Rudy than about Bayless. Its just that if Bayless is really the backup PG then why is Rudy getting some of his minutes? Does anyone really see Rudy as our PG? I know that Bayless is a better fit with Roy than Rudy will ever be. KP desire to get more minutes is hurting the team and Bayless. If Rudy is on fire then leave him in but if not then he shouldn’t automatically get minutes when his shot isn’t falling. Face it, Nate has no idea on how to manage the minutes for this team. First Webster is a starter and no he’s no better than a end of the bench guy like Pendergraph or Deiner.
I think that the very thought of Rudy being mentioned as competition to Bayless
at the PG spot says it ALL about the notion of Jerryd being a future starter at that position – does it not?
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
Rudy cannot defend PGs, Jerryd can
the only “competition” between the two of them is for playing time at the 2. If they’re on the floor together, there’s no reason that Rudy can’t initiate the offense…but that doesn’t make him the #2 PG
in the NBA, your position is defined by who you can guard not by what you’re doing at the offensive end. (That’s why there’s a postion called “point forward” for the rare players who can run the offense and also defend the opponent’s SF)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Then what's that make Juwan Howard?
He can’t defend anyone.
jk
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell
he's a tweener
Juwan gets “between” the player he’s guarding and the basket and hopes for the best
Actually, Howard’s a savvy post defender, but he’s over-matched athletically and has to “get by” on experience and guile. The fact that he still has an NBA job speaks well of his BBIQ and adaptability
I’d play Cunningham more than Juwan at this point, but Howard’s done so much to pull Nate’s bacon out of the fire this year that I think McMillian’s giving him “reward minutes”
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
well then if Rudy is the backup SG, why was bayless starting when Roy was out
I don’t think nate’s rotations have much to do with this fight, sorry.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
I guess I just can't help but see Vinnie Johnson ...
minus the deadly accuracy and range …
In my opinion, the things that Jerryd does well (drive and finish or get fouled) are great attributes in a ‘first off the bench’ guard who can reasonably slide between two positions as needed, but doesn’t one who doesn’t quite have the court awareness or vision (and experience) to be a team’s full time point guard … and by point guard I mean, set up the offense, move defenders with his dribble to open up high percentage shots for his teammates, recognize time-score and situation.
Maybe someday he’ll have that ability, but I suspect it’s always going to be a bit of a struggle for Jerryd to smoothly fit in as a 3rd or 4th option in the starting lineup (assuming of course that Brandon, LMA, Greg and maybe even Batum are probably better, higher percentage bets to be taking the bulk of your starting unit’s shots.
And if you want data to support this you can look at his profile on 82games.com and see for yourself that he really hasn’t played point guard much this year … which tends to make it hard to either support or deny the claim that he will make a good point guard; there’s just not enough information yet.
Bayless already has a higher TS% than LMA and a higher TS% than Brandon had in his second year
You and a lot of other folks seem to focus on his outside shooting % w/o looking at how often he finishes inside or how many FT he gets per game. Bayless is already quite efficient and has an excellent chance to end up being a Billups-like efficiency freak.
Like I said in my post his outside shot is developing pretty quickly he is at 49% FG, over 45% from 3, and over 87% from the line since the trade.
Did people complain about Brandon’s efficiency in his second year as a 23 year old? Why the heck are you guys complaining about Bayless, as a 21 year old?
by upper left corner on Mar 13, 2010 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
apples and oranges
If you want to compare Bayless and Roy as shooting guards, then you’ve made a good case for it, but you didn’t address nikolokolus’ points directly, when he said that Bayless
doesn’t quite have the court awareness or vision (and experience) to be a team’s full time point guard … and by point guard I mean, set up the offense, move defenders with his dribble to open up high percentage shots for his teammates, recognize time-score and situation
Based on Nate’s comments re: Bayless, these are the areas where the coaching staff feel that Jerryd needs the most work. I expect that you’ll drop an assist stat to demonstrate that he is getting the job done but a lot of what nikolokolus was talking about in that response is not quantifiable. Bayless may have a better assist % (or whatever alphabet letters are used to define it) as Roy and Billups did during their developmental years, but the evolution of a scoring guard to a PG isn’t an exact science. Keep in mind that the 2007 Blazers that Roy starred for are not the same as the 2010 Portland team that Jerryd is on. Expectations are higher, the lineup is older and there will be less tolerance of mistakes.
Here’s one more comment from nikolokolus that I want to emphasize
And if you want data to support this you can look at his profile on 82games.com and see for yourself that he really hasn’t played point guard much this year … which tends to make it hard to either support or deny the claim that he will make a good point guard; there’s just not enough information yet.
Besides the week (or so) that Blake was out with pneumonia, Bayless was rarely on the floor without a veteran PG. I’ve commented many times that “the future Blazer backcourt” of Roy/Bayless has been almost been nonexistent, except for perhaps as a late game come-from-behind tandem. And even since the Blake trade we’ve seen Rudy initiating the half-court offense when he and Jerryd are on the floor, together.
So, let’s keep things in perspective, if possible. Bayless is a combo guard who is learning how to be a backup PG. He could develop like Billups did, and if he does that would be great. But there is only hope at this point and no guarantees, and if Jerryd wants to be a starter alongside Roy, Batum, LMA and Oden in the future, he’s going to have to sacrifice a lot of his offensive tendencies and be willing to spread the ball around and be the 4th-5th scoring option. Is that really the best long-term role for him? We’ll find out
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
There isn't any evidence to suggest Bayless doesn't have court vision requisite of a point guard
it remains to be seen if he won’t be more valuable as a go-to scorer – and therefore more valuable as trade bait – remains to be seen. That doesn’t lessen his capabilities or tendencies – all which suggest he is developing as a point guard just fine.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 13, 2010 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
there is anecdotal evidence
Bayless brings the ball down court, Rudy is open in the corner, Rex puts his head down and drives to the rim and gets his shot blocked, and Fernandez slumps his shoulders. Nate and Brandon have a “chat” with Jerryd on the bench
Did Bayless “see” Rudy open and decides to attack the basket anyway, or did he have tunnel vision and “call his own number” because he saw daylight and drove for it?
It’s a fine line. The coaching staff has mentioned frequently that to be a PG Jerryd needs to react to situations better and not make up his mind “ahead of time” how he’s going to proceed, both in an open court situation or in the half-court. I don’t think anyone would argue that up until Bayless was drafted he had a scorer’s mentality, and we saw plenty of that mindset in the ‘08 summer league when he averaged 30ppg and won the MVP. Jerryd’s ability to fearlessly drive and get to the line is a valuable commodity in today’s NBA, but that in itself doesn’t make him a PG. What he needs to improve upon is seeing his teammates as he’s driving and dish the ball to them when his path to the basket has been cut off.
We’ve seen him make passes to shooters in the corners off the dribble (some) this year, and that’s part of the “80% distribution to jump shooters” that Ridiculous shared ^ above. The next stage for Rex is to make “risky” passes that lead directly to lay-ins or dunks—without turning the ball over. Lob passes. Back-door feeds. “Slips” on PnRs. When he gets to that level of proficiency, then he’ll be a dual-threat whenever he takes the ball into traffic, and the Blazers will really have something.
The good news is, Bayless has a Jedi Master to learn from named ‘Dre, if Jerryd can pick up some interior passing skills by watching Miller, as well as chatting with Billups and working out with Chauncy during the offseason, there’s a decent chance he’ll eventually get to where Portland needs him to be
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree that your anecdote wasn't one of his better moments
…..but he was going full court in under 5 seconds. It was a tough play and he didn’t make it.
OTOH, Bayless hit Rudy with a beautiful 3/4 court pass perfectly in stride during the same game. Does that count as anecdotal evidence of court vision in your book?
I do agree that decision making is Bayless’ biggest hurdle. Decision making correlates pretty directly with experience. Given that Jerryd didn’t play the point at UA and Nate has given him few chances since he arrived to be the sole PG on the floor, I don’t think it is surprising that Bayless sometimes struggles with this aspect of the PG role. Young QBs, even the most talented young QBs, often struggle to read defenses and react quickly enough to what is going on in front of them. Young PGs, and especially young PGs with limited experience are not much different.
Bayless may figure it out, or he may not. Billups is an excellent example of a guy who needed a little time before he really understood the nuances of the PG role. There are plenty of examples of guys who never get it. I think the best we can say at this point is that Bayless’ recent play, along with his physical skills and work ethic, merits substantial optimism.
If I were a betting man, I would wager that we will probably have our answer in the next 12 months. If Bayless continues to improve and Nate develops enough trust to give him a bit more reign and a few more minutes, we should be able to squint our eyes and see the outline of what the mature Bayless is going to look like. On the other hand, if he stagnates and continues to make the same mistakes, over and over, the doubters may yet rule the day.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Bayless hit Rudy with a beautiful 3/4 court pass perfectly in stride during the same game. Does that count as anecdotal evidence of court vision in your book?
Sure, I’ve seen Bayless make some nice passes in transition situations, even an alley-oop pass for a dunk, earlier this year. So he has it “in” him, the next stage will be to build on that and deliver it more consistently
But taking 20 foot jumpers when Roy is calling for the ball? That’s not wise. Jerryd will have to learn the “less is more” lesson if he wants to stay in-synch with #7 and Nate
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
We are beyond experimenting on the floor
the team isn’t where it was at two to three years ago when everybody was developing at their position. We are not memphis letting Conley adjust to the pros while learning the ropes on the floor, we are a playoof team, we need people on the floor that know what they are doing. That is why miller was brought in frankly. We can not afford to waste games on letting Bayless figure out how to be a PG. He needs to get it together some other way. If he can’t improve in the minutes provided then maybe he is not the right fit.
I believe he can be a good starting PG but we do not have the luxury of low expectations anymore.
Maybe it is not fair that Roy, Aldridge, Webster — the older Blazers were thrown out there, sort of sink or swim like and got all of that court time to develop, but given the team situation at the time it was what had to be done. now we don’t have that same situation any longer. Maybe it sucks for bayless, but it is what it is.
Right now we need 9 wins to clicnh a playoff spot, not the time or place to give bayless court time to figure out how to be a PG.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
What?
You must not have read far enough into my post to get what I was actually talking about (getting hung up on the Microwave comparison.)
by nikolokolus on Mar 13, 2010 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
If Bayless ever wants to be PG1, IMO,
he better spend 1000 hours this summer practicing feeding the post. To my eyes, he’s pretty lousy at it. I will not consider this team to be a real, viable championship threat without some serious post play, and only Dre, Rudy and Nic are any good at feeding LMA in the high post, much less Greg in the low post (Brandon also needs to work on this).
Early in the season, it seemed like we threw away 2 post passes a game, and kept forcing Greg out of his good low-post position to make a catch. Unless Bayless can do this consistently, I say we go out and get someone who can, post-Dre.
by samuelleejackson on Mar 13, 2010 2:10 PM PST reply actions
An observation about Bayless (with zero stats to back it up)
It appears to me that all of the shuffling around has made it more difficult for Bayless to develop much of an outside shot in game situations.
If you look at the players who have deadly midrange or long range games, they get their shots from particular spots and out of particular sets. Now granted, I don’t get a chance to watch every game, but it seems like every time I see Bayless play he’s doing something different and many of his outside shots come from different spots and different angles.
The reason I’m pointing this out is because I think that he has EXCELLENT potential to become a phenomenal outside shooter. He has great mechanics, shoots a high FT%, and we all know that he’s a gym rat. The one thing that he’s lacking at this point in his career is consistency – not in terms of minutes (although that would help), but consistency in terms of where he gets his shots from.
Again, I could be way off on this observation because I haven’t watched every game and I have zero statistical proof, I’m just basing it on the naked eye along with past experience as a player, a coach, and hoop fanatic.
2010-11 dream lineup: Oden/LMA/Batum/Roy/Dre; Okafor/Freeland/Cunningham/Webster/JB/Pendy/Mills.
by The Cactus Leaguer on Mar 13, 2010 4:28 PM PST reply actions
His mechanics are not that great
He shoots the ball kind of off his right thumb with a sideways rotation. However, I’m a big Bayless believer nonetheless—I think John Townsend will have him shooting great by next year.
" It was as if the Suns hatched a fiendish plot to ruin John Wayne's movie career by casting him as a cowboy." - Dave 2/10/2010
I'd agree - Bayless' jumper seems to go in in spite of the mechanics
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 14, 2010 12:49 AM PST up reply actions
I respectfully disagree with you both, but of course it’s a somewhat subjective argument that has been discussed elsewhere in detail(like here:).
The times where I observed that his mechanics were bad were in situations where he was throwing up off balance, out of position shots with the shot clock running out.
2010-11 dream lineup: Oden/LMA/Batum/Roy/Dre; Okafor/Freeland/Cunningham/Webster/JB/Pendy/Mills.
by The Cactus Leaguer on Mar 14, 2010 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Link
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/2/1066780/jerryd-baylesss-new-jumper
2010-11 dream lineup: Oden/LMA/Batum/Roy/Dre; Okafor/Freeland/Cunningham/Webster/JB/Pendy/Mills.
by The Cactus Leaguer on Mar 14, 2010 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions
aren't all of your posts about Bayless long?
by DefenderOfPants on Mar 13, 2010 5:51 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Big J-Bay fan here
Bayless has markedly improved this season. His basketball IQ, as well as his ability to score, distribute, and defend have all taken steps forward, enough so that he is becoming a relevant factor in the offense in only his second year. All indications appear that he will continue to do so given his work ethic. Most of the pertinent stats about his play have already been mentioned, but I’d like to emphasize how important it is to have players that can not only create their own shot, but have the ability to drive, draw fouls, and score. This is one of the most important parts of offensive basketball in terms of improving efficiency, along with offensive rebounding. Bayless is already close to elite level in this category; his quickness and strength allow him to dictate the dribble drive on his terms, and it’s an extremely effective and efficient way of scoring. Add in his improving long range jump shot and ability to pass off the dribble, and I see the makings of an offensive juggernaut in Portland for years with Bayless and B-Roy’s ability to score both inside and outside, and Oden and LMA’s offensive rebounding ability. Add in an efficient shooting and handling SF like Batum and our starting 5 looks great for the long term.
It doesn’t bother me that Bayless isn’t a pass first PG. There haven’t been many pass first PGs that have won championships in the last 10 years, and there’s a good reason for that. Most of it has to do with having the right PG for the right system. B-Roy’s unique skill set as a SG (he’s basically a big scoring point guard) dictates that we need a PG with a unique skill set (a small, quick shooting guard with handling ability). Having a PG like Bayless along with Roy puts a ton of pressure on a defense given that perimeter defenders will need help on the interior for both players’ driving games, creating opportunities for open shots for teammates as well as forcing teams to honestly defend all parts of the court. The driving threat also constantly puts defenders on their heels, opening up the mid range game for guys like LMA and Roy who have excellent mid range jumpshots.
The other reason I like Bayless is his potential on the defensive end. You don’t need to watch him long to realize that he has the ability to become an above average PG defender with his foot speed and athleticism. Again, his work ethic and intensity is a plus here; defensive ability has a lot to do with mental toughness and the willingness to work hard. The rest is natural ability, which I think Bayless has. I don’t think he will ever be the type of player to challenge shots given his short wingspan, but he will certainly be able to stay in front of his man and deny the lane with his agility, and that is an important skill. Forcing an offense to live off of contested jump shots is always an excellent gameplan.
Bayless is the long term answer here. His development this season given limited minutes as well as unsteady playing time and ever-changing roles has convinced me that he has what it takes to reach the next level. As of now, he’s already close to being an elite level slashing scorer, and he’s just starting to realize his potential as an overall offensive player and perimeter defender.
Prince: This bores me. Is anyone up for a game of basketball?
The potential danger in a Roy-Bayless backcourt
While all you’ve said is true, and the two players could be dynamic on offense together, the danger is that they would dominate the ball and limit the scoring opportunities to Oden in the future.
Maybe that doesn’t seem like a big deal, right now, because Greg is hurt and a lot of people feel he can’t be depended upon in the future. But I doubt that this opinion is shared by KP and the coaching staff. For Portland to reach their ultimate goal, they’re going to need #52 to be more than a defender who only scores opportunity baskets off of missed shots by Brandon, LMA or Jerryd.
Part of the reason why Miller was signed in July was the plan to get Oden more-involved in the offense, and that was working out well during the first couple of months of the season, at least while Andre was on the floor with Greg. When Dre was on the bench (not starting) #52 wasn’t getting the same touches or quality scoring opportunities. “Entry passing” does not seem to be something that either Roy or Bayless do particularly well. I have hopes that Batum and LMA can help “assist” in this area, but the main concern is that #7 and #4 will dominate the ball and the Blazer offense will resemble a summer league or all-star game—where he guards take most of the shots and the big guys just run up and down the floor and only touch the ball when they get it off the glass.
That’s not a balanced offense, the Blazer guards will need to consistently distribute the ball to the front court so the big guys have easy scoring opportunities (recognize mismatches, ride the hot hand, etc) even if that doesn’t mean that Portland has a “pass first” PG in the starting lineup
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
OTOH, Bayless' 1st step combined with GO's strength and speed....
…..could eventually lead to an extremely difficult to defend pick and roll combination. Oden shouold be able to set far more effective screens than LMA because of his sheer size. I can’t wait to see him rolling to the rim for the little lob and the monster jam….
It is all fantasy at this point, but it sure looks good in my head..
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
we were excited
when we heard that Bayless and Oden were “working out” together last summer. The fire of Rex and the “smashy” of big Greg? Awesomeness. Jerryd “played down” the workouts when he was asked by reporters later, but he’s hoping the two of them have more “clandestine” rendezvous next summer to get their non-verbal synergy dialed in
I’m hoping Miller rubs of on Roy, and we see Brandon get the big guy involved more next fall, as well. The guards were just starting to get familiar with Oden before he went down, and that’s probably the most frustrating thing about his injuries. Hopefully, it won’t take so long to get everyone back up to speed the next time Greg returns to the practice floor
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith agreed that Bayless and Roy are the long-term backcourt starters for the Blazers
(As seen this week on TNT’s inside the NBA.) Appreciate your use of factual support for your opinion.
I have heard over the years some real good coaches say that PG is the toughest position to learn and develop for a young player. It typically seems to take more time before you know. Jerryd seems to have the determination and work ethic to develop his potential and I do hope he stays for a long time. He seems to be making quick progress this year.
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
The will to be good is highly underrated - and the time it takes exceptional players to be exceptional is generally underrated
Bayless’ development curve remains a positive indicator for his future performance – especially in consideration of historical trends.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 14, 2010 12:51 AM PST up reply actions
so...
Guys like Westbrook, Rose & Evans can pick it up. More talented but same age, if not younger. Other guys like Collison & Curry are older…but adapting quickly to the League.
Given those 5 examples, why is it so hard for Bayless?
it isn't
that’s the point. Perception and reality do not jive. Bayless is performing just fine.
by blacknoiseNW on Mar 14, 2010 1:11 AM PST up reply actions
OK, let's do the comparison:
1) Rose, Evans, and Westbrook are the very “cream of the crop.” Along with CP3 and DWill, these are about the best young PGs to come into the league in the past decade. Rose was a #1 pick. Evans was a #3 pick. Westbrook was a #4.
2) Each of the guys you mentioned has been a starter from day 1. In fact, each of these guys has played more NBA minutes than Bayless. Bayless has a PER of 16.2. He is the only PG in the league with a PER above 15 who is averaging less than 20 minutes of PT.
3) More than half of Bayless’ PT has been as a second PG out on the floor with Miller and Blake taking turns initiating the offense.
4) Bayless has a better TS% than Rose, Evans, Westbrook, or Collison.
5) Bayless Assist % (19.1) is right in line with Rose (20.5) and Evans (20.1). The other three you mentioned are somewhat higher: Curry 23.8; Westbrook 28.3; Collison 28.5. I do think it is highly relevant that over 40% of Bayless total minutes this season came while Brandon was out and he was playing starting SG and being asked to put more emphasis on scoring than distributing. Since the trade, Bayless’ assist number have increased.
6) Bayless did not play PG in his one year of college, so he is very green.
If you compare Bayless to the larger group of nearly 25 PGs drafted in the last three years, he compare very favorably. He is fourth in TS %, and third in points per 36 minutes.
Given how little time Bayless has had as the full-time, back-up PG, a little patience would seem to be in order. He has already proven that he is an efficient scorer, give him till the end of the season to make any judgments about his emerging skills as a distributor.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 9:20 AM PST up reply actions
PG?
To be fair to any pg that Portland might use we must admit that the offensive scheme (Roy getting the ball as much as possible) of Portland does not lend itself to a heavy reliance on a point guard.
This is one of the better posts I have seen on BE about player evaluation.
It brought about a discussion that reflected the concerns that generated the post in the first place, i.e. rationally generated opinions vs. feelings and popular opinions. The whole KP mind reading section was a hoot. Summer league being held up as relevant when we have regular season NBA stats to use instead, was also kind of funny.
Then we have the supposedly damming signing of Andre, forgetting that we tried to sign two big guys before we finally signed a point guard. Even Steve Blake being traded away meant nothing positive for Jerryd in KP’s little black book.
Sadly, it seems that preconceived notions about positions and style points tend to overrule hard data. My guess is that as the sample size for the data gets larger, people have a tendency to give up their “personal opinions” in order to avoid the humiliation of being separated from the pack. In general our talent evaluators do not want to be seen as holding “obviously” incorrect opinions, but on the other hand, they will not give them up until the herd moves on.
21 + 52=
Thanks, I really appreciated your post.
I think it is pretty clear that Bayless is under-appreciated by many. There is still some legitimate uncertainty about his abilities as a distributor, and he still has a lot to learn as a defender, but the evidence indicates that he is likely to be very special.
by upper left corner on Mar 14, 2010 9:25 AM PST up reply actions
Dre best teacher for Rex!
I look at Dre as a short term plug-in teacher for Rex. We all know that Steve was the wrong PG to teach Rex( no ability to disrupt with the drive). Rex has more in common with Dre., but with a better jump shot that is only getting better. As another has already stated, I see Rex developing into the same mold as TP did with Drexler. With Broy as our SG and the amount of time the ball is in his hands, he becomes the primary focus and distributor on the team. Dre also seems to lower his head and bull his way to the basket. What is really needed to help both of them out is more follow up cut to help with rebounding and target for both once they get in there. Rex is doing just fine at this time, and WILL get better!!
One other piece of data... take it for what it is worth
Lot’s of good discussion in this thread. My impression has been that Roy and Bayless have made an effective backcourt. So, I went to check the numbers and this is what I found: When Bayless has played point guard (no Miller, no Blake) with Roy as the “shooting guard” (no Fernandez) this year, the Blazers have soundly beaten their opponents. Here are the numbers:
Minutes: 76. Offensive possessions: 135. Defensive Possessions: 138. Points scored: 181. Points allowed: 147. That’s beating the opponent by 27 points per 100 possessions. That’s not a lot of minutes, but good results.
http://basketballvalue.com/player.php?year=2009-2010&id=735&sortnumber=2&sortorder=ASC
For comparison, when Miller has played point and Roy the shooting guard (without Blake or Fernandez in the game), here are the numbers:
Minutes: 577, offensive possessions: 1047, defensive possessions: 1057, points scored: 1186, points against: 1141. That’s beating the opponent by 5 points per 100 possessions.
http://basketballvalue.com/player.php?year=2009-2010&id=31&sortnumber=2&sortorder=ASC
So, in the very limited opportunities that Bayless has had to play in the role of “starting PG” alongside Brandon Roy, the team has played well. Perhaps Nate has tended to use that lineup against weaker opponents, but +27 is a nice number against just about anyone.
just 76 minutes
that’s the number I was looking for, that’s just a little over 6 quarters of NBA ball that Roy and Bayless have shared the backcourt without another “PG” also being on the floor
As much as KP likes to dive deep into the numbers, and pass them along to the coaching staff for their consideration, wouldn’t you think that since the Brandon-Jerryd backcourt was so productive we’d have seen more than 76 minutes of this tandem, during the last 4 months?
The reasons for this we can guess, and a lot of them have already been gone over in this and other threads. Are the Blazer coaches morons? Don’t they know what’s best for the team? Can’t they see the obvious greatness of Rex or are they missing the forest for the trees?
The development of Mr. Bayless as a guard who can play alongside Roy will continue, but the coaches will continue to play the lineups that they feel gives the team it’s best chance of winning, while also finding PT for Rudy, Martell and the others. Like I’ve said many times, Jerryd came along late in the team’s developmental curve, he’s simply not going to get the same opportunities to make (and learn from) mistakes that Jack or Sergio were given, back when Portland was only winning 20-30 gps. It is what it is, but to his credit Bayless forced his way into the lineup, when injuries to the other guards cracked the door open
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Stat Stuff Just 4 you...
Oh wait we did do that for a little while I wonder how he did,
DATE MIN FG 3P FT STL BLK TO PF REB AST PTS
12/17 29 9-15 2-3 9-12 0 0 2 2 3 4 29
12/19 30 3-13 0-2 4-4 0 0 2 2 4 1 10
12/23 42 10-24 2-2 9-10 1 1 0 1 2 7 31
12/25 30 2-10 0-3 4-7 0 0 1 3 1 7 8
12/30 28 5-14 1-4 3-5 1 0 2 0 2 8 14
1/2 40 2-11 0-4 2-2 1 0 3 2 3 2 6
1/5 29 5-10 0-2 3-4 1 0 1 2 4 5 13
1/18 34 3-9 0-2 3-4 0 1 2 3 3 8 9
1/30 29 7-11 0-2 3-4 1 0 1 1 1 2 17
Above are 9 games this season in which Bayless played Roughly 30 mins. or more a game (I included some 29 and 28 min. games I hope you don’t mind) for those ten games his average FG% was .384, 3pt% .208 his Avg. turnovers per game were 1.5, his Avg. Assists Per Game were 4.8, Rebounds 2.5, Points per game 15.2, and his opposing PG’s shot an average of .482 – After researching these somewhat useless facts I have realized this, Bayless Is an Okay PG, not Great by any means, just Okay. However, this does not take away from the fact that he has his own name tattooed on his back which in my eyes in pretty dumb and makes him more then tradeable.
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
Stupid format changes makes reading hard, so sorry...
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
Oh and I guess I should have bothered to proof read, laziness got me again
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
For boxscores
and other stats it’s probably good to surround them with an HTML pre tag.
DATE MIN FG 3P FT STL BLK TO PF REB AST PTS 12/30 28 5-14 1-4 3-5 1 0 2 0 2 8 14 1/2 40 2-11 0-4 2-2 1 0 3 2 3 2 6 1/5 29 5-10 0-2 3-4 1 0 1 2 4 5 13 1/18 34 3-9 0-2 3-4 0 1 2 3 3 8 9 1/30 29 7-11 0-2 3-4 1 0 1 1 1 2 17
" It was as if the Suns hatched a fiendish plot to ruin John Wayne's movie career by casting him as a cowboy." - Dave 2/10/2010
I feel more smarter, thank you.
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
I'm a Bayless fan
I understand where ULC is coming from. I also understand how two4larue sees things. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle.
Stats indicate that Bayless is a developing talent on offense and that he currently has very defined strengths and weaknesses. His efficiency has wavered throughout the season; initially it was off the charts, then it dropped significantly and now it is improving again. I would see this as a direct representation of the scouting process in the NBA – Bayless surprised teams with his ability to drive and draw fouls initially but after a period of adjustment defenses figured out how to deal with this either by sagging off him or avoiding contact and getting blocks on his drives. The improvement in efficiency recently is good to see as it indicates that he is figuring out how to adjust to the changes in how he is defended. This is definitely something that makes me optimistic for Bayless future as a scoring guard. His assist% and turnover% give me hope that he could be an effective combo guard type, which would work next to Brandon in theory.
On the other hand, there are some stats that concern me. His usage rate is 25.8, something that clearly couldn’t be sustained in a starting lineup with Roy, Batum, Aldridge and Oden. I question whether Bayless efficiency and impact would remain as strong if his usage rate had to dip. For comparisons sake, Mike Conley and George Hill both have usage rates around 18, one as a starting pg and one playing a similar role to Bayless. My second concern is Bayless’ long range shooting. Assuming improvement is fine and I do think he will get better from distance over time but he shot 26% from three in his rookie year and is only shooting 31% this year despite what to my eye have been open attempts. Teams are happy for Bayless to shoot, which is something that would have to change. While I can see him becoming serviceable I’m not convinced he will ever become an effective long range shooter who can be relied on in pressure situations. As the kickout is one of Brandon’s crutches in the 4th quarter, I want a pg and sf that can hit a 3. Batum has convinced me, Bayless hasn’t. Finally, I have an issue with Bayless’ defense. I subscribed to the theory that Bayless’ intensity and athleticism would lead to him becoming a good pg defender. It may be too early but his lack of understanding within team defensive concepts concerns me. Sure he can stay in front of his man, but this hasn’t prevented him from being burned in a number of other ways. His defensive rating of 111 back up the assertion that Bayless is currently more about potential on defense than tangible production.
All in all, I like Jerryd’s game. I am fairly sure he will be a productive player in the NBA. I’m just not convinced that he will play his career in a Blazer backcourt with Brandon Roy. I would like that to happen but I don’t think it is likely
Bayless’ long range shooting. Assuming improvement is fine and I do think he will get better from distance over time but he shot 26% from three in his rookie year and is only shooting 31% this year despite what to my eye have been open attempts. Teams are happy for Bayless to shoot, which is something that would have to change.
Maybe Jerryd needs to get his shoulder tweaked, have surgery then sit on a chair and learn how to shoot all over again, like Nic did—that seems to have worked out well for Batum!
http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/3/11/1368422/nico-batum-back-on-his-blog-and
Good point about usage. I’ve actually been on the Bayless bandwagon since the ‘08 summer league ( I was the first to make the Porter-Drexler comparison, as far as I know…) But you’re right about Jerryd needing to “do more with less” if he’s going to start alongside Brandon in the future. It would be akin to yoking a thoroughbred with a plowhorse—sure it gets the job done, but it’s not necessarily playing to Bayless’ strengths if he’s the 4th option on offense (and that’s selling Nic short, he could be higher than 4 in years to come.) And assuming that Nate stays around, we know how the coach likes to divide up the scoring across the white-black units, so that strategy may work “against” Rex or Rudy ever being a starter, down the road.
Like I’ve said, I think there might be enough ball-handling with Roy-Rudy-Batum-Bayless in future seasons for KP maybe to not “have” to add another veteran PG. (Maybe he brings Koponen over and that’s all they need?) A lot of these roster decisions will be determined by how the team fares in the playoffs, and how everybody meshes with Oden when Greg comes back. (Everyone seems to be quick to kick Andre to the curb, but he’s a big part of this stage in the Blazer’s team development, even though it’s clear that he’s a short-timer re: the Blazer’s future plans)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I just want to say that I have enjoyed the civilized "give and take" in this thread
Thanks for a good conversation.
I think our points of view are actually a lot closer than it may first appear: I choose to emphasize the reasons for optimism, while you seem to emphasize the reasons for caution.
I think we both have a fairly fact based perception of Bayless’ strengths and weaknesses.
My final comment is to say that I hope my optimism proves well founded because it would be terrific for the team. If Bayless becomes an effective scoring PG next to Roy, and if G.O. can stay on the floor, we are on the way. I look forward to the journey…..
by upper left corner on Mar 18, 2010 6:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm a Bayless fan
but I’m not sure at this point that he’ll be the right fit alongside Roy in Portland’s future starting 5, for all the reasons I’ve mentioned above
If it works out that Jerryd remains a change-of-pace combo guard who comes off the bench and lights a spark, you should be content with that, because those kind of players are extremely valuable. And it the Blazer’s future starting PG is a “less-talented” offensive player who “fits” better in the starting lineup because he can spread the floor and only shoot when he’s an “outlet” for the other players, then that will be OK, too. Especially if the team is winning playoff series and hopefully NBA titles.
We’ll all find out together, I don’t even think that the coaching staff or the front office are completely sure where the roster will be, next fall. Oh they’ve got a plan, but circumstances can turn on a dime, as we’ve seen ths season
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Generally, there is an inverse relationship between usage and efficiency
When a player uses fewer possessions, they tend to get higher quality opportunities when they do try to score. I would expect a Bayless that uses only 18% of possessions rather than 25% to get a bump in TS%.
I agree with most of the rest of what you say.
I just don't trust him!
In Bayless I trust.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><>
what the #%$ are you people talking about!!!
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!
&*@^@#%& and %@(*(*
" It was as if the Suns hatched a fiendish plot to ruin John Wayne's movie career by casting him as a cowboy." - Dave 2/10/2010
Bayless reminds me more of
Bobby Jackson circa Kings than the Microwave. I love his game mainly because he is a relentless attacker (sometimes out of control) which makes defenses waste fouls. Roy is the only other player we have that gets to the line consistently. Clearly Bayless’s stat where 80% of assists are for jump shots is a result of his attacking style coupled with our lack of post scorers.
gosh...
you had to end your post with the ‘P’ word.
...and that's the bottom line 'cause nicolas batum said so!
Bayless
He has come in and had some seriously good shooting nights. Personallly didn’t think it was in him. He can get better and does work hard, give him a chance. Might rub off on all of them!
by blazer for life on Mar 17, 2010 7:43 PM PDT reply actions
WE NEED
an assist man, that is NOT what Bayless is. Sure he can drive and kick but that isn’t his first instinct. Also the kid can’t shoot, hopefully we can teach him, but as of right now it looks pretty bad (shooting wise)
I kinda feel like I'm beating my head against a brick wall, but....
……let me make another effort to provide some facts:
Bayless has a very high TS% in part because he finishes at the rim and gets to the line. In fact his TS% is better than Roy’s in Brandon’s second year.
Bayless is shooting 31% from 3 pt range. Certainly not great, but not terrible especially when you consider that he is twenty one. He is showing signs of improvement: his overall % is up .050 from last year and he is actually shooting better than 45% from 3 pt range since the All Star break, which is outstanding. Many guys like CP3, Harris, shot less well than Bayless at the same age.
Saying “we need an assist man” flies in the face of having Brandon Roy as out dominant scorer. We need someone who can keep their defender from doubling Brandon. We need someone who can get in the open floor and score easy transition buckets. We need someone who is a threat to penetrate and can collapse the defense. We need someone who can spot up and hit the open three when Brandon drives. Assuming Bayless continues to improve from distance, he can do all of those things.
Keep your eyes and your mind open.
by upper left corner on Mar 18, 2010 5:54 AM PDT up reply actions
A case for Rudy, using the criteria you mentioned
Rudy has a TS% of 56.3% this year despite a pretty rough stretch before his surgery. Bayless is at 54.5%. Rudy’s TS% his rookie year was 59%, better than Roy’s at any point in his career. Rudy also puts up these numbers up in a way that would compliment Roy(outside shooting).
Keep their defender from doubling Roy- Check
Get in the open floor and score easy buckets- Check
A threat to penetrate and collapse the defense- half check, he doesnt finish well, but does penetrate and find people when the opportunity presents itself. Certainly a work in progress, much like Jerryd’s outside shot.
Spot up and hit open threes- Uber huge explanation point check
Your last sentence applies here as well :)
RUDY > MJ
Thank you KP
I just can't get past the ball-handling and defensive issues at this point
I certainly could be proved wrong and would be happy to have Rudy do so. It would be great for the team if either Rudy or Jerryd could fill the long term need.
I will say that I think it is a lot more likely that Bayless will improve his court awareness at both ends, and improve his shooting as a 21 year old, than it is for Rudy, at age 24, to significantly improve his ball-handling and quickness. The areas where Bayless needs improvement are primarily a matter of experience and skill which can be improved with time. The areas where Rudy would need to improve are more about basic athleticism and body type which are extremely difficult to overcome.
by upper left corner on Mar 18, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Where does being able to feed Oden and LMA stand
in your list of important long term functions for our point guard. Bayless has absolutely no skill in this area, feeding big men down low, or giving those big men down low space to maneuver by being able to hit the 3 consistently. Bayless is 61st in assist percentage out of 66 point guards. That is utterly and unequivocally atrocious. Out of the 38 point guards that qualify with enough 3 point shots, Bayless is 37th in 3 point percentage. We need to stop dancing around those very basic needs we have at the point guard position just because it doesn’t help your argument. Being able to have a point guard that penetrates is nice, but is hardly at the top of our needs. With Roy and Oden out there, having a guy with that as his only offensive attribute will only further to teams being able to clog the paint against us.
Also, defensively Rudy has been better than Bayless all year. The team is 5 points better on that end of the court with Rudy than Bayless, and Rudy allows his opponent to produce 4 PER less than Bayless allows. This is all in addition to Rudy’s exceptionally higher steal rate (2.3 / 48 for Rudy vs 1.0 /48 for Bayless).
I’m not going to argue Rudy as the PG, because I think he and Roy work best on the wings together for 15 minutes a night, but to say Bayless is the end all be all to the PG quandary we’re in just isn’t a very sound or logical stance at this point. Our long term need at the position has way more to do than just doubling what Roy already is able to do out there.
In Conley Oden Trusts
"Get three superstars and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win." - KP
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