Has Rudy Reached His Ceiling?
by Trutherlizer on Feb 9, 2010 10:50 PM PST
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PrintLets get one thing out of the way from the beginning: I like Rudy Fernandez, but I have a question that comes from watching the video the team often shows before introducing Blazers at home.
If you’ve been to the Rose Garden, you may know the one. It’s in grayscale, shows individual players posing with the ball, storm clouds behind them, and thundering music playing. As a season ticket holder, I’ve seen this video many times, but at the game against L.A. I notice something for the first time. Biceps. Specifically, I noticed that Steve Blake had muscular definition in his arms, which did not surprise me. After all, despite his limitations as a player, there’s never been a question that he works hard, which includes lifting weights to ensure he’s as strong as quickness allows.
No, what struck me was how ‘50s Rudy’s arms were. He had no discernable muscles in his arms. Yes, I realize that Rudy is a lean guy. He’s not going to have the cannons that a Bayless will. But even skinny dudes can add muscle. I know; I’m one of them and certainly no athlete. What it comes down to is this: regular hours in the gym and a decent exercise program.
So what? Wasn’t, Reggie Miller was both skinny and an elite NBA player?
This is what: time in the gym may be symptomatic of the kind of dedication to improvement that separates the average NBA players from the good and especially the excellent. This line of thinking lead made me wonder. How much better a player is Rudy today compared to his first season in the League? Has he studied tape, analyzed defects in his game, identified where he needs to improve and put in work to make himself better? Has he become more durable, better able to sustain physical defense and finish a shot? Has he gotten better at getting to the basket? Has his midrange game improved? Has he improved his 3-point percentage? Has his assist-to-turnover ratio increased? Gulp.
Yes, Rudy was injured, but he hasn’t been for a while. We’re in year three two of his NBA career and, alas, I don’t see significant improvement. I have with a number of other Blazers, such as Roy, Bayless, Oden. Does someone know if Fernandez has the work ethic of these three, the willingness to put in the work necessary to reach the next level?
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On a side note, this is only Rudy's second year as a pro, not his 3rd as you state.
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
We've grown accustomed to young players
being NBA ready right off the bat. We need to remember that this is the exception and not the rule. Some of the best NBA players have taken a long time before they have finally found their mark. I’m not sure Rudy has peaked out or not, but its still too early to say he has after 1 complete year.
I'm going on a Dave boycott until AK1984 is brought back.
"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia
"At first glance, I saw a fairly unremarkable penis." ~Sophia on Greg Oden
Yes, young players can take time
to develop, and one one-and-a-half years may be too soon to know whether they’ll grow. There can be a steep learning curve coming into the league, but there is something over which every player has control: their effort off the floor to make themselves into NBA players. One thing nearly all decent NBA players have in common is an uncommon willingness to work when the bright game lights are not shining. And one important addition many players make to their NBA game is muscle.
Rudy could use more. Do you see evidence he’s added some? Do you know if he’s making the effort to add more? I don’t see and I don’t know.
by Trutherlizer on Feb 10, 2010 7:10 AM PST up reply actions
when you say "ceiling"
do you mean in terms of trade value or actual basketball ability?
i believe his trade ceiling has last year but he certainly still has room to improve his game. i don’t think he’ll ever be anything more than a decent bench player but to say he has no more room to grow seems a bit over the top.
Good bench player
or a decent starter. That’s his ceiling in my opinion.
But we’ll see it in a few years, anyway.
I sure hope he hasn't peaked
but as stinky as the team played tonight I wouldn’t be making any knee-jerk player evaluations on any of them. Let’s see how they all look after Roy gets back
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Under Nate? Its possible, but hopefully unlikely...
Otherwise? Absolutely not….
RUDY > MJ
Trade for Dalembert
He looks like he is playing hurt
It looks like his back injury is still affecting his game. He was still learning the NBA game and making progress, but this year he appears tentative and uncomfortable. Maybe it’s coach, maybe it’s the guys he is playing with, but I’m guessing it’s his own body balking at him.
To my eye . . .
he does not look unhealthy, tentative, or uncomfortable. He reported that his back feels the best it has since before he was injured last year. He runs the floor with apparent ease. He’s got hops (note the follow dunk against, I think it was, San Antonio). He’s getting minutes, taking shots and trying his fancy passes. Nate doesn’t pull him immediately when he screws up. I’m curious to know specifically what progress Rudy’s made. I’ve been looking forward to it.
He's almost 25.
I can’t think of a lot of players who improved their games dramatically at his age. To me it seems like he’s always going to be a 3 point shooting specialist. Without the ability to create off the dribble and finish consistently at the the rim he’s probably not going to be more than a roll player. Maybe a good roll player, sixth man of the year candidate or something, but a role player none the less.
I used to be called Nick Van Excellent, but I wasn't really all that excellent.
by The Running Man on Feb 10, 2010 8:22 AM PST up reply actions
I just don't see it either
Europeans are typically, fundamentally lacking. but so are many of these youthful players now being drafted into the NBA.(Batum seems to be an exception, the guy seems to, not only be sound fundamentally, but also owns some instinctive skills) )I have always thought that Rudy had a pretty low ceiling all along, but unsure, if given some good tutoring, he could improve. The problem with the Blazers is that they have a whole team of “potential” players to tutor and not enough time or veteran (player)trainers to help some of these young men.
Some other youthful Blazer players that (IMO) have reached full potential or ceiling; Webster, Outlaw, Bayless, and to some extent Oden.( he will be better if he can play, but he don’t play. has a lower than expected ceiling and shouldn’t be counted as a future Blazer until he can get on the floor for a couple of seasons, without injury)
It is really the defensive liability that lowers ceilings of most players. It is the area that you build a team from and generate a teamwork atmosphere. Players that have just one or two dimensions end up on the bench with the good teams. We just happen to be playing those players and their weaknesses are getting exposed.
Nate’s system has the flaws that may prevent development as well. If you continue to bank your success on an offensive plan of attack(half court) that relies on the outside shot too much, many other areas of the game fall into a secondary format. You put yourself in the position of having to outscore the opponent rather than stop them from scoring and play your offense from that. Fast break points (dead last in the league)….. Some of these younger players, like Rudy, would be better suited to this style of play.
I’m not talking “the talk” about running, like Nate does. You can’t be a running team without good defense that creates turnovers, and thus the “we need to push the ball” are just unfulfilled words when the mindset is in another world.
So yes, in the world of Nate, Rudy has reached a ceiling.
no progress, in fact he's gone backwards
He’s gone noticably in the opposite direction of progress. But I’m curious, what reason besides the back injury do people think that his game has declined? Saying you feel better than any time since before the injury doesn’t mean he is back to 100%, it just means he has improved since it felt worst.
"having any sort of musculature" thinking is what made kp draft oden instead of durant
dinasour type of guys choir boys
I have been postulating a similar thought, lately...
But in terms of consistency. I think when (if) we see some consistent play out of Rudy we’ll know a little more about where he is in terms of ‘ceiling’. The problem is that he is wildly inconsistent (as much as Martell or Bayless). It seems like it is all or nothing with these guys. Martell started showing some consistency over the last couple months but has recently went back to his yo-yo production. I give Bayless a little more leeway considering he has been in and out of the starting lineup and only in his 2nd year.
Rudy, though, I just can’t give him the same benefit as I would Bayless even though he is also in his 2nd year in the NBA. He is much older (4 years is a lot in the NBA) and has much more experience playing professional b-ball (in Europe). I expect more consistency than we are seeing out him and would be way happier if he were actually contributing near his averages every game rather than yo-yo-ing between WOW! and UGH! Just give us some solid production.
IMO, we will lose more games gambling on guys who are hot occasionally than guys that just give us solid contributions. There is too much risk involved and puts a lot on the coaching staff to figure out, especially when time is ticking away on the game clock.
But getting back to your point about working out, never do you hear mention of Rudy beasting in the weight room. Maybe he is like Rasheed Wallace in that regard….The other guys (except maybe Miller) definitely are shown, interviewed, or talking about their weight routines. Come on Ben! Show us Rudy lifting weights!
The case against Rudy at this point of the season is the same as it was a year ago.
His offensive/scoring game in this system consists of breakaway, wide open, or alley-oop dunks and wide open 3’s. He hasn’t shown any ability to beat his man off the dribble, meaning the only way he gets in the lane or to the rim is if no one is guarding him. I suspect the scouting report notes that he relies heavily on screens and collapsing defenses to get open.
Though he has a quick first step, I don’t see the handles with either hand to be able to develop a real driving ability. He had an awesome looking teardrop floater a while back and I remember wondering why we don’t see that more. It’s because he can’t create it more, which really sucks because he has phenomenal vision and passing ability.
I personally don’t think there’s a squad in the league who play the flowing type of offensive basketball where his skill set could be maximized. To add to this, the type of defense played in the NBA doesn’t favor/allow for a whole lot of Euro-style flowing offense… there’s just too many big, long guys. On a team with a faster pace where he was more of a designated secondary scorer and not competing with a bunch of guys for that role he could surely average more points per game, but more likely do to the increase in touches and pace than anything.
Speaking of defense, he’s not all that great at it. He gambles in the passing lanes better than most, but checking on the ball is not a thing of beauty for him.
At this point I tend to think this year’s squads biggest issue is that we have sooo many shooters and not enough guys who can drive and kick/create/score. Marty, Batum, Rudy, LMA, Dante, Blake… they’re all spot up shooters and they’re all competing with one another to be the shooter (not saying they’re selfish, but they all have the same offensive skill set right now). It’s not a bad thing to have shooters, but it’s not good if you don’t have enough other guys who can give them open shots.
An offensive rebound in paragraph form. -Mr. Golliver
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Feb 10, 2010 11:07 AM PST reply actions
This is ridiculous...
…even Kevin Durant has commented on Rudy’s buffness.
by Bart King on Feb 10, 2010 11:16 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Finally, proof positive!
Rudy, sly fellow, disguises his utmost buffness beneath a veneer of fluffness.
by Trutherlizer on Feb 10, 2010 10:18 PM PST up reply actions
No I do not agree
As someone that adds muscle VERY easily, I can’t agree with this assessment. It seems that during his long hiatus from any lifting or basketball activity, it is VERY likely all the muscle he had accumulated simply withered away. This happens to me all the time. If I do not work out for a week or two, the muscle will go away. You know what they say, if you don’t use it you lose it. So I feel that this reality would be even more pronounced on someone like Rudy who has less muscle mass than say Bayless. Furthermore, during a basketball season, players do not lift as heavily as during the offseason and preseasons. It will fatigue your muscles and make u LESS effective during games. Also, shooters do tend to be significantly leaner, so his body type isn’t that out of the ordinary. Look at Reggie Miller, Ray Allen (though still kinda buff), Kevin Durant and the list goes on.
GREEEEEEEEEEEEEEG OOOOOOOOOOOOOODEEEEEEEEEN
He needs to get consistent minutes
If Blake truly is gone, Rudy needs to be the guy that replaces that outside shooting. He set a rookie record for threes last year. Just because we are a jump shooting team does not mean we have to take BAD jump shots. As a team we need to work the ball, and matchups, to set up OPEN jumpers. Roy does play into that but Miller could pass out more instead of forcing his shot.
by LicketyBrindleDowntheMiddle on Feb 16, 2010 9:22 AM PST reply actions
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