Why the Blazers Will Win Tonight

Hey Blazers Edgers, this is RCM with a prediction about tonight's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. I think that this should be a very easy win for the Blazers, and here's why.

 

Please keep in mind that this is only a surface deep prediction of the game, constructed in only an hour and a half. It is nowhere near as detailed as Ben's previews or analysis. As always, recommendations, critiques, and feedback are welcomed and desired.

I've always like to live life by the numbers. As a finance/accounting major at the University of Portland, I believe that numbers have a huge deal to do with the past, present, and future. Regardless of the amazing hot streak that Kevin Durant and the Thunder are on, it is tough for me to believe that KD and OKC can overcome the hostile environment that is, sadly for them, going to be the Rose Garden's 100th consecutive sellout.

 

Thunder Stats

For even the most casual basketball fan, it seems fairly obvious that Kevin Durant is the focal point of the Thunder offense. Durant is performing at an incredibly high level this year; all year long, he's been in the top 3 in scoring, and has had a remarkable 48.5% FG percentage. In addition, although he is the team's small forward, he leads the teams in rebounds.

Even though Durant's NBA profile looks like this:

I'm definitely not scared, and here's why:

In the Blazers' first game and only previous game against the Thunder this season, Durant had a less than stellar game. That, combined with a frustrating inability on his teammates' part to make wide open shots led to a Blazers win in a low scoring affair in Oklahoma City. Durant was blanketed, no, he was absolutely smothered by Martell Webster's defense. The game started out with him missing key open shots.

After those missed opportunities, Webster never again gave him any room for a good shot. Durant's frustration mounted as he missed shot after contested shot. In fact, the only reason why he scored 16 points and not 6 is that he had to make 10 free throws. At this point in time, Webster's defense isn't looking as good as it was earlier this season. However, should Martell be given the duty of defending Durant, I think he'll do an admirable job. Portland has a safety net, though. Should Webster fail to effectively cover Durant, Nicolas Batum is simply dancing in anticipation of the chance to defensively suffocate another NBA superstar.

While most of the Thunder offense is running through Kevin Durant, another player the Blazers need to watch out for is Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is playing at an unbelievably high level right now. In the past few weeks, he's been all over the highlight reels of the NBA, providing great passes on the fast break, set offense, and even rising up and hammering the ball. Westbrook is a very fast player, not a great shooter, but he can penetrate very well. Just the sort of defensive matchup that Steve Blake and Andre Miller will have an advantage in.

While it's probably unrealistic for me to assume that Kevin Durant will go 3 of 20 from the field tonight, I think that I can safely assume that the Blazers, chafing from the loss to the Lakers on Saturday night, will be fired up and looking to redeem themselves in the eyes of their fans. Jerryd Bayless, should he start, will have an advantage on offense because the Thunder don't really have a good shot-blocker, only a half decent one in Jeff Green. Juwan Howard can effectively dominate the soft Nenad Kristic, and Steve Blake and Andre Miller will be able to hold their own against Russell Westbrook, I think. The key is at the shooting guard and small forward position. Thabo Sefolosha is by no means an offensive juggernaut, but he can hold his own on the defensive end. However, if Portland can shut down KD, then they essentially have the keys to the game.

 

Keys to the Game*

• Keep Kevin Durant under 25 points
• Control the tempo of the game
• Get back on defense in order to limit the Thunder fast-break offense
• Don't allow Durant to penetrate and take easy shots- force him to take contested jumpers
• Fans, be loud and proud. Congratulations Portland, it's your 100th consecutive sell-out

*= I think that any 2 of the first 4 will guarantee a Blazers win tonight. The fifth key is basically a given.

Poll

Will the Blazers beat the Thunder?

66%

Yes

79 votes

16%

No

20 votes

16%

Not Sure

19 votes

118 votes | Poll has closed