How Good is Kevin Durant?
by Ben Golliver on Feb 9, 2010 11:00 AM PST
in News
182 comments
I spent a good chunk of yesterday morning listening to Nate McMillan and the Blazer players praising Kevin Durant's offensive abilities. This morning I decided to dig through some data to get a better sense for how superlative KD has been so far this year.
I came up with the following chart. (Sorry for so many charts recently. It's a phase. I'll get over it.)
Here's the full size version.
This chart includes the 50 players in the NBA who use the most offensive possessions. An offensive possession is defined as a shot attempt, drawn foul or turnover. On the X axis, you'll see the raw number of possessions. On the Y axis, you'll see Points Per Possessions (PPP), a standard measure of offensive efficiency.
A ton of things jump out from this chart, including just how much more frequently the top 5 players (Bryant, James, Wade, Durant, Ellis) use possessions when compared to the rest of the league.
The league's truly elite scorers from an efficiency standpoint find themselves at or above 1.05 PPP. That's exactly where Brandon Roy is right now. To be able to maintain that kind of efficiency while increasing the number of possessions is the difficult part. A great example is Kobe Bryant. All the possessions in the world yet his efficiency can't keep pace. This is a nice visual representation of the effect of the occasional 7 for 31 frustration games.
The two outliers way up in the right hand corner should probably be considered the top two scoring weapons in the entire league. They have maintained elite level efficiency while using tons of possessions. Those two players? LeBron James, not surprisingly. And just barely trailing him? That's right. Kevin Durant.
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
PS Thanks to InvisiNinjaPDX for his research assistance.
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Nice chart
But I didnt need it to come to that conclusion. Just watch the guy play on NBA TV and its blatantly obvious that he is a scoring machine (and also rebounds well). maybe this will help dispel the myth that he is nothing but an un-efficient chucker that many blazer die-hards still believe because it makes the pain of having Oden a little more bearable.
this guy is the truth. Hopefully he isnt tonight though…..GO BLAZERS
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
no one claims he isn’t a great scorer. The issue is that he needs to become a facilitator as well as a scorer for his team to be good on offense. They’re one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but have the best pure scorer. Something’s wrong with that equation.
#52 #10 #25 #7
maybe because the other starters can’t shoot jump shots? (except the center, who sucks at everything else)
not complicated
Basketball is a team game. In this context, a great scorer can become a liability if he keeps the team from playing together. Teams like Cleveland, Portland and Miami demonstrate this.
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
yeah
I already know how Blazin’ feels about Roy and Portland’s strategy relying on so many isos. Its a little surprising to me that he feels the same way about LeBron.
Free AK1984
"can become a liability"
may not be the best way to phrase it. Superstars can get you a long way in the NBA. But the great teams play like teams, even if they have superstars on the roster. And there is a point in a team’s development where the presence of a superstar can slow the process of finding a team identity.
It’s really a coaching issue.
Yea, Brandon is in good company!
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
Worst offensive teams?
Actually they are rated #17 in the league in PPP overall at .94PPP So they are far from one of the worst.
Follow me on Twitter @invisininjapdx
by InvisibleNinja on Feb 9, 2010 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
LBJ was one of the best pure scorers in the league
while on a 15th to 20th ranked offense during much of the mid decade. He was always a facilitator.
KD definitely still has a lot of areas of improvement (I’d actually focus more on his ballhandling in traffic) but the problems with the OKC offense is just that they have a bunch of pretty inept offensive players. KD passes to open guys plenty, but Harden and Sefolosha hit a very low percentage even when they’re wide open, and Russ and Green are very inconsistent, again even when they’re wide open.
If KD had Batum or Blake or LMA spotting up around him, he’d average 5 dimes a game. Easy.
by howlingfantods on Feb 9, 2010 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
that's not true
Assist pct isn’t a perfect metric, but it should account for the ability of players around them to score. If Durant is getting screwed in raw because the guys around him can’t make shots as well as the guys around Roy, it shouldn’t hurt his assist percentage because even though they are missing shots where Durant sets them up, they shouldn’t be scoring when Durant isn’t setting them up. Durant only assists on 14.5% of his teammates FGs, compared to 25% for Brandon and 41% for LeBron. For someone who handles the ball as much as Durant, that is ridiculously low. He’s closer to power forwards like Bosh and Nowitzki than wing players like Brandon.
You're mixing up a couple of things.
Cablin claimed that Durant wasn’t good because even though he’s a great individual scorer, his team sucks at offense overall (currently 19th in off rating). My counter is that that doesn’t really hold true (it took me around two seconds to find that LBJ played on #15-20’ish offensive squads in the middle paft of the decade even though he was a supreme offensive player).
I also as an aside point out that he’s still a developing player and has room for improvement – I watch OKC a lot, and I can pick a dozen things I think he should be working on, but distributing the ball isn’t that high on that list. He’s actually gotten pretty decent about kicking out to the open man when he gets doubled. He could be better— he’s no larry bird— but he hits his open guys frequently enough.
You’re right though. His role isn’t to be a facilitator. He actually doesn’t handle the ball that much, not as much as LBJ. Russell is the PG and that’s his role. It’s not like Kobe or LBJ, who get the ball to start the play every play- Durant gets the ball within the flow of the offense, and his role is to score unless he gets doubled, and even then, his role is usually to score agains the double team. If you watch that team enough, you’ll see that Durant doubled is a better scoring option than most of the other guys single-covered.
by howlingfantods on Feb 9, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
Cablin claimed that Durant wasn’t good
I don’t think I said this.
He’s actually gotten pretty decent about kicking out to the open man when he gets doubled. He could be better— he’s no larry bird— but he hits his open guys frequently enough.
You know who rate better at AST% per usage than Durant? Corey Maggette. Jamal Crawford. He barely beats out Rudy Gay. Waving a hand and just saying he isn’t that great of a passer takes away from just how rare it is for a dominant balhandler to be this lacking in playmaking.
I watch a lot of OKC basketball. Your last paragraph tends toward the “do you even watch the games” argument.
#52 #10 #25 #7
Mags and Crawford both play with good jump shooters.
Durant doesn’t.
Also, sensitive much? I wasn’t even addressing you in that last paragraph.
by howlingfantods on Feb 9, 2010 9:36 PM PST up reply actions
You were addressing his argument
and mischaracterized it with your first line.
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
You're conflating the ability to score
with the ability to shoot. Certainly Westbrook is a much better player than Steve Blake, but if Brandon kicks the ball out to Steve Blake, he’s a good bet to shoot off the catch and generate an assist for Brandon as opposed to Westbrook, who has a terrible chance of scoring if he just shoots it, but has a much better chance of putting the ball on the floor and getting to the basket. Maybe Westbrook will be more efficient after receiving the pass, but most of the time when he’s scoring, Durant won’t be getting the assist. This will naturally get exacerbated by the fact that Brnadon is also kicking it out to Webster instead of Sefolosha (a simply terrible offensive player) at the other wing.
Now, there’s undoubtedly a little chicken and egg thing going on here (i.e. better creators will create easier shots, making their teammates better shooters), but to say that assist percentage will account for your teammates’ ability to score is simply a fallacy. Not to say that there’s no difference between the two, but there’s a huge difference between playing alongside Steve Blake and Russell Westbrook.
#52
yeah this is true
Some players will be better at converting assists than others. However, quality playmakers have overwhelmingly been able to put up decent assists numbers when surrounded by poor teams. Roy did it his first and second years, Joe Johnson did it when the Hawks won 30 games, Michael Jordan did it when the Bulls were mediocre, Bryant did it after O’Neal left and the Lakers weren’t very good. These guys play Durant’s position, approached or exceeded Durant in USG, played on poor teams but had Ast pcts between 21-28. Now, admittedly I don’t have the time or know-how to disaggregate the ability of the supporting players to shoot from the rest of the quality of the team. But given the position he plays, and his exceedingly high USG, his low Ast % is something noteworthy at this point, and I do think it indicates playmaking is an area he should be improving.
Is it noteworthy?
Yeah, it’s noteworthy, most stats of interest are. Can/should he improve it? I’d say so, although I’d argue the degree to which he NEEDS to improve it, but I definitely think its importance gets blown way out of proportion here on BE. None of the guys you mention (except Jordan, not bad company) were also anywhere near as efficient scorers on those bad teams as Durant has been on the Thunder this year, so I’d expect Durant to call his own number more often than they did, just like Kevin Martin has for the past few years on the Kings instead of giving it to Ron-Ron, Hawes, or Garcia.
To sum up, I definitely think it’s a sign that he’s not some perfect basketball player, but the sentiment on BE that it’s some fatal flaw just seems petty to me. If we’re going to compare him unfavorably to guys because they have better assist %’s, we should at least point out that none of them really came close in terms of scoring efficiency at the same time, instead of just hand-waving it away with “T-Mac/Kobe was a scorer, too”.
#52
I agree with this
Durant is a top-15 player and one of the top 5 scorers in the game.
I also agree with you that it’s kind of weird in this sense:
If we’re going to compare him unfavorably to guys because they have better assist %’s, we should at least point out that none of them really came close in terms of scoring efficiency at the same time, instead of just hand-waving it away with "T-Mac/Kobe was a scorer, too".
The idea that T-Mac was some selfish, serial loser is totally made up, revisionist history. T-Mac was an utter beast, incredibly efficient scorer, and great player until he inexplicably entered old age at 26, and injuries have basically ruined his career since. We have no idea what T-Mac could have accomplished because he was basically cut down as he was entering his prime.
And Kobe, as much as we hate him, has had an OK career.
Yeah, T-Mac gets one of the most unfair raps
in NBA history. The guy has simply played on terrible teams his entire career. For all of his 1st round failings, his teams have been favored in exactly 2 first round series over his entire career, and never with a record more than 2 games better than his opponent’s (both times against the Utah Jazz). More noteworthy, their losses in those series were almost entirely due to Carlos Boozer making a mockety of Yao Ming. I’m still unsure how he was labeled a choker despite going for 29-13-5 and 40-5-10 in the elimination games in those two respective series.
I think the Kobe/T-Mac comparisons are relatively fair, it’s more that I take issue with comparing him to people like Joe Johnson (and I like JJ). Literally, there’s such a huge gap in their scoring efficiencies that it’s like saying “Yeah, Steve Nash gets a lot of assists, but so does Tony Parker, and Parker actually draws fouls, too”.
#52
Roy, JJ, MJ, Kobe are all SGs.
KD is a small forward. Kind of a similar position but kind of not. It’s like complaining about a PF for not rebounding as much as the great centers of the past. It’s generally not expected that a SF would have the same assist rate as a SG.
by howlingfantods on Feb 9, 2010 2:36 PM PST up reply actions
the great ones elevate their teammates. He is a great scorer, no doubt. But he’s currently a Rudy Gay passer. Gotta get that up to be a complete offensive player.
#52 #10 #25 #7
I don't disagree with that.
But watching him first-hand, he’s not a black hole on offense. He actually does a pretty good job of looking for his teammates. The problem is the team. James Harden can’t finish around the basket for his life. There’s no interior offensive threat to get easy buckets. He’s pretty much relying on jump shooters and the occasional back-door cut (Brooks’ offensive system isn’t the most imaginative).
the inevitable "eye test" post
easy to make comments like that – after the data has been posted.
Also, generalizing about Blazer fan’s opinions will make you generally incorrect, rather than correct.
Few disrespect Durant’s offensive capabilities. His all-around game is improving, too. But he isn’t a perfect player by any stretch – and there are legitimate questions about his total contributions.
That said – what a player. I think it is safe to say he is transcending even the high expectations.
by blacknoiseNW on Feb 9, 2010 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
Geez!
I said nice chart! And I didnt generalize ALL Blazer fans, I said “many Blazer die-hards”, which is true because I see those posts on here quite often about how much of a chucker he is and how all he can do is shoot which is not true. He gets his points all over the court and is effecient doing it.
And look at my comments from a month ago about Durant BEFORE the data was posted, you will find the same thing. Anybody that watches his games can see how good he is.
I would put more of the facilitating responsibilites on Westbrook who is their PG that they took with the #4 pick in the draft. Durant can definitely get better, but I dont think that is what they rely on him to do.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
Never apologize for a chart.
I love charts. Anything you can say is instantly more credible when there is a chart involved. More charts!!!
Next week
Ben will provide a chart of how his charting frequency has increased as the season has progressed.
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Ben's CPBPF is off the charts
Perhaps he should apply for a charter to examine Chart Per Blog Post Frequency?
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
There has been some grumbling about Ellis not being an all star this year
Anyone who grumbles should look at this chart.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Feb 9, 2010 11:19 AM PST via mobile reply actions
As well as GSW's W-L record.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
in fairness, dude has played approximately a billion minutes this year, and has played through injuries
and has played with D-League teammates.
He still might want to pass the ball to Maggette occasionally.
Free AK1984
And Nelly is his coach
What happened to this season???? It went under the surgeon's knife. But its not over yet. Hold tough. This team will be battle hardened. Tough. Honed to a fine edge. They will be playing playoff style – nine man rotation – for a significant portion of the season. Dividends will be paid. - Tiparillo on Dec 15, 2009 11:48 AM PST on Game 26 Preview: Kings vs. Blazers on Blazersedge
and in life
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Feb 9, 2010 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
Durant is no Juwan Howard.
"What people need to know is that those pictures were taken a year and a half ago, and I've grown since then." - Greg Oden
Maybe in fifteen years
Dream on, kid
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
yeah
Durant only wishes he could grow facial hair
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Feb 9, 2010 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
Can you feel the love tonight?
Between Ben and KD? The world for once, in perfect harmony, KD and Ben are where they are.
But seriously, nice work.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
He didn't want us to draft Durant or anything
Did he?
/s
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
I take it the x-axis is considering the cumulative offensive possessions for the season
If that’s the case, it should be adjusted for games missed. Some players (Roy, among others I’m sure) have missed games, lowering the appearance of usage when they are actually in the game. If adjusted, the chart would show he maintains his high PPP even when used frequently… at least, more frequently than displayed.
The players that have high possessions per game and have been lucky enough to avoid the injury bug (LBJ, KD) may not be as separated from the pack on the adjusted possessions scale.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -- Bertrand Russell
case in point
Carmelo’s usage pct is actually 2nd in the league, behind D-Wade—above KD and LBJ. The injuries presumably have limited his raw number of possessions used.
I typed about Melo before you did, really!!!
But I was too lazy to look up actual usage pct, so I guess it is only justice your post hit first….
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
i would also say on an unrelated note
that there seems to be an unspoken trend toward measuring a player’s offensive effectiveness through usage vs. PPP. It’s like the new PER. Of course, PPP doesn’t account for assists at all, which I don’t agree with. Brandon assists on 25% of his teammate’s baskets while Durant is at 14.5%, but all that shows up here is that BRoy’s possession usage is a bit lower at similar efficiency.
I understand Ben’s statement was about being a great scorer, but there’s an inherent statement there about which player you’d want offensively.
Usage pct is imperfect, as well
If your usage possessions match another player’s, and he plays on a fast pace team while you are on a slow pace team, your usage pct will be higher, right? But does that really mean it is harder for you to be efficient? I would say no. So I would say usage per game, rather than usage percentage, is a better measure.
But usage percentage is a reasonable approach, and gives a good picture of what is going on. The point is that it is harder to be efficient with very high usage, and both usage percentage and usage per game will show whether a player is high usage or not.
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Usage is pace adjusted
Which is what makes it such a useful stat.
To be clear
All usage measures is the percentage of your team’s possessions you use while you’re in the game. Thus, if you use 25 out of 100 possessions (face paced team) your Usage percentage is 25%. If you use 25 out of 85 possessions (slow paced team), your Usage percentage is 28%.
I understand that
So which is more impressive, to maintain a high efficiency on 28% or on 25%? In my book, if you maintain high efficiency on 25 possessions, it’s 25 possessions, whether it was 28% or 25% of your team’s possessions. I wouldn’t rate player #2 (28%) as having done better simply because his usage percentage is higher.
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Carmelo is the only one
with points per possession over 1.0 who has missed significant games. He has played 38, Brandon 40.
So if we were looking at usage per game, which is the right way to look at it as you’ve pointed out, Melo’s dot would shift over in line with James/Durant/Wade/Bryant. Brandon’s would be pretty much where Amare’s is.
Jamison has only played 40 games, so you could shift him over on the same line between Lopez and Johnson.
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
To be expected from Ben.
That's DR. Mr. Draft John Wall to you, sir
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
Nice info
I knew KD was a scorer, but to see him hovering above D-Wade and Kobe is pretty amazing.
I wonder though, does PPP include every different type of usage (as in not just shots, but assists, TOs and FTs?), or is it just from direct scoring? Like Cablinasian above, I’m wondering if KD is a facilitator or just a (uber elite) scorer? Either way though, he’s a pretty amazing player.
so....this offers a very interesting Moneyball perspective for basketball
I’d try to build a team with multiple players in the upper middle/left of the spectrum rather than have one guy in the upper right….
Tou mean this team?
Nash
Roy
Wallace
Duncan
Lee
Yeah. They’d be ok, I guess.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Feb 9, 2010 11:51 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
_You_ mean...
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Feb 9, 2010 11:51 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
yeah
i’d take that team
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Feb 9, 2010 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
Maggette as sixth man?
I hate the guy’s game, but there’s no doubt he’s good at it.
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Or Crawford
Also good game, and much less hate.
Still on the Rex bandwagon.
by dan_the_man on Feb 9, 2010 12:01 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Look at Magette leading the pack...
it is crazy that people call him overrated.
He's good at drawing fouls
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
I've always wondered why GSW is so eager to trade him when he is such an efficient offensive player...
enough as to package him with Anthony Randolph…and I’ve been wanting to trade for those two when it was known those two are available as a package early this season. Maggette does make a lot of money but it’s not obscene or anything. He makes similar money with BE favorite Hinrich but is much better player, IMHO.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
Maggette is a defensive sieve and a questionable teammate
He’s also a black hole, so maybe there’s a reason his teammates don’t pass to him as much as these numbers suggest they should.
Dude is an outstanding scorer though, to be sure.
Free AK1984
i can't wait until he's a free agent and there's a huge bidding war for the guy
that scores more points per possession than LeBron.
I dunno...
I think you can say all that about Monta as well. At least Mags is efficient on offense and rebounds?
Ellis also pouts all the time and doesn’t listen to coaching..although that might be a positive under Nelson.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
hey, I'm not a big Monta guy either
I do respect how many minutes he’s played despite all the injuries, but he’s not played winning basketball this year, that’s for sure.
Free AK1984
A bubble chart with the bubble indicating size of contract
What happened to this season???? It went under the surgeon's knife. But its not over yet. Hold tough. This team will be battle hardened. Tough. Honed to a fine edge. They will be playing playoff style – nine man rotation – for a significant portion of the season. Dividends will be paid. - Tiparillo on Dec 15, 2009 11:48 AM PST on Game 26 Preview: Kings vs. Blazers on Blazersedge
Imagine where he'd be if he took a step back
and shoot a 3 instead of a long 2.
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
You gotta subtract assists from the possessions totals, or account for them somehow. My guess is that would separate Lebron and Durant significantly.
no doubt
LeBron James is at an astounding 41% ast pct. Durant is at 14.5%. For reference, CP3 has been around 50% for the last 3 years.
its painfully obvious from this that nate should be fired
how he doesn’t let batum lead the league in possessions is beyond me. unless this chart means everyone besides batum, as that chart would go so high that you couldn’t even see the rest of the dots
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
Durant v Oden
It would be interesting to compare Oden’s overall productivity (PER?) before the injury to KD.
I support LaMarcus 100%. He's only 24 - not even in his prime yet. He's improved in each of his first three seasons. He will only get better.
...because Oden had made some strides...
in terms of his scoring, rebounding, and especially blocked shots.
I support LaMarcus 100%. He's only 24 - not even in his prime yet. He's improved in each of his first three seasons. He will only get better.
oden isn't supposed to perform well here
One of his greatest attributes is his ability to contribute without being high-usage. Like you note, his contributions are most apparent in the areas of blocked shots and rebounding, which are not reflected in usage. I would predict he would be toward the upper left but very high (he scored very efficiently).
Thanks for the explanation!
I support LaMarcus 100%. He's only 24 - not even in his prime yet. He's improved in each of his first three seasons. He will only get better.
Perhaps I'll try to figure this out...
and post it on here – if you guys think it would be useful.
I support LaMarcus 100%. He's only 24 - not even in his prime yet. He's improved in each of his first three seasons. He will only get better.
Is this a knock on Roy?
People talk about how “efficient” he is, but Ben seems to imply that “truly” great players not only have a high PPP, but the ones who do it while being the overwhelming offensive focus of the team—and defense focus of the opponent.
My impression is that Roy is the such a guy on the court. The defense does seem to focus on him. But why doesn’t the chart show it? Charts don’t lie. They never do. Right?
Honor Alaa Abdelnaby.
First in the NBA. At least alphabetically
Chart is not an overall efficiency rating of any sort.
It doesn’t take into account games missed, minutes played per game, assists per possession (which also lead to points), or team pace.
In short it is a very simple chart to explain how many points are scored per possesion, even if some players have less possessions because of injuries, slower team pace, or less minutes per game.
it is amazing how inefficient trever ariza is, as he is the only non-point guard near the bottom
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
yeah, he clearly wasn't ready to be a primary offensive option... at all
He’s shown he can be efficient when using limited possessions, and I expected him to still be reasonably efficient using more possessions. I was wrong.
Free AK1984
That assumption is exactly the problem with Wages of Wins
Assumes that usage rate has nothing to do with scoring efficiency, when everyone who’s watched the game understands that there’s a huge difference between spotting up for the occasional open three pointer and creating shots with the ball in your hands and the clock winding down.
by howlingfantods on Feb 9, 2010 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
How good is he?
Here’s another way to think about how good he is: all players under 21 years old who had PERs over 24 playing starter minutes. Pretty good company there.
it looks like the t-mac comparrisons are right
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
by thomasikehara on Feb 9, 2010 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
TMac was a fantastic fantastic player
during his pre-back problem orlando years. Folks make that comparison to Durant and think that’s an insult, but if TMac had been able to stay healthy and had the competitive drive to maximize his abilities, he could’ve been a top 10 player all time.
Big difference between KD and Tmac— KD is a huge workaholic. TMac always loafed on the offseasons, KD is becoming another one of these Kobe-like gym rats.
by howlingfantods on Feb 9, 2010 12:46 PM PST up reply actions
they just want to hate
i would tend to ignore them
anyone who’s being honest with themselves knows we would’ve been better off picking Durant
The Leeroy Rule: being insistent >>>> being correct
by leeroyjenkins on Feb 9, 2010 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
See, I still dunno about that
There is no question that Durant is the better player, but having Durant and Roy on the same team would probably create the same issue that having Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady did for the Raptors. It wouldn’t be like Jordan and Pippen because neither of them could be a Pippen.
I think it would be interesting
I dont know how “well” it would work, but I think they would find a way to make it happen.
If Boston can manage the big 3 together, I have to believe that we could find enough shots for Roy, Durant, and LMA.
I think dismissing it as “they both need the ball, it would never work” is a cop out. Plus Durant is coachable.
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
I can summ up how to stop KD with no graph,
Nic Batum !!
When will Blazer fans move on from this subject ??
Hindsight is 20/20, but imo, Horford has turned out to be the best all around player of the top 3 picks.
Imagine how good the Blazers would be with him now.
Small ball does not win championships.....
Go Blazers !!
I just dont get it
How so many people can fail to see what Durant doing is incredible. Horford is a fine player, but he isnt near what Durant is
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
I really hope Oden's able to have a healthy career at at least the level he was at this year (minus the foul trouble)
That would make it less painful to watch the unbelievable player that Durant has become.
Free AK1984
Durant is still an atrocious defender and is a black hole the likes of which not even Zach Randolph knows
Durant’s ball hog rate is an astonishing 3.1, worst in the NBA. That would be Usage rate / Assist Rate.
Also, something to note, Oden’s points per possessions is higher than any player on this list. Something to keep in mind for when he returns.
I take it you haven't watched much Thunder this year.
Durant is an above average wing-defender. Yes, he still gets blown by sometimes, but he makes up for it with help blocks, challenging spot up j’s, and jumping the passing lanes.
Watched Durant every year including this one.
He plays with 2 (actually elite) perimeter players. He is a poor defender.
You might be suprised,
Based on the Metrics I have looked at Durant is actually a solid defender. That may be based on matchups, but it is what it is. Statistically he is the equal of Batum Defensively and rates in the top 10% of the NBA in Defensive PPP.
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by InvisibleNinja on Feb 9, 2010 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
He's nothing special on D, but from my viewing he doesn't do a lot worse than e.g. Roy
and he’s statistically a solid defender this year.
Durant’s a top 10 player this year, or at worst top 15. And he’s 21.
Free AK1984
Of course
but it’s not that hard to watch considering we have Roy who uses our possessions at the same rate of Durant and isn’t blind to his teammates. Oden garners an even larger points per possession number. When on the court together that’s better than a Roy/Durant combo ever could’ve been.
I guess I’m not as worried about Oden as some are. He’s a 7 footer, injuries are part of the deal. When healthy Oden for this team over Durant, and it’s pretty simple. This teams issues when healthy aren’t offensive efficiency. Oden helps this team the most where it actually needs the help.
I would argue that Durant is currently a better defender than Westbrook.
Westbrook is a bit overrated because people look at his tools and his team and assume he’s a premier defender. That’s simply not the case, at least not yet. He’s improved recently but for the majority of the year, RW was a little lazy chasing ball-handlers, going under screens nearly 100% of the time and bailing out players driving the lane with ill-advised strip attempts.
Oden was playing some pretty great ball this year
Injuries and foul trouble. Those are the only two things keeping him from being a star.
Free AK1984
Not surprisingly
Lots of players are worse, if he’d bothered to do a cursory check of the made up stat. Hickson, Ilgauskas, Al Harrington, Jordan Hill, Amare, Bynum, Landry, etc.
In fact, I’d guess that you could pick almost any team in the league and find a guy with a “worse ball hog rate”.
#52
Bigs are a different story
I was mostly discussing wings. And I should’ve also noted, players with really high usage rates. It’s not close, for a player that takes up such a high portion of his teams possessions, no one is a bigger ball hog than Durant. He makes his teammates worse.
Imagine how good OKC
would be without him
Probably a lot like Denver without Melo
Westbrook, Harden, Green, Ibaka, Thabo, Collison… they’re certainly not lacking for talent.
Much better defense and ball movement without him. Certainly would be missing a big time shooter. That’s what happens when you build around a player. I definitely like their strategy building around Durant with defenders more than Cleveland’s building around LeBron with shooters.
Poss/ Game Chart
Here are the Top 25 players in the NBA based on Poss/game with their PPP
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This may be easier to view
http://i1014.photobucket.com/albums/af266/InvisbleNinja/topefficiencyPosspergame.jpg
Follow me on Twitter @invisininjapdx
by InvisibleNinja on Feb 9, 2010 12:59 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Boy is that chart depressing.
Former Sonics fan….ugh…i hate watching KD. Nothing against the man personally, but it sure does make me sad.
understandable, especially considering you had the pick before the team left.... HELLO Seattle !
I don’t remember if it was “too late” by then or not.
"Travis went all wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow on everybody " Dave's recap, season opener
Oden was the right choice...
why Greg was the right choice….
http://bit.ly/9gXyoi
Hm...I was half expecting this was a picture of Greg's third leg..
"I think he’s been doing some good things. I think he’s been doing some good things. He’s had to play a lot of minutes lately with Blake being out. I think he’s been doing some good things." -Nate McMillan
WHO GAVE YOU THAT RIGHT TOM!?
HUH?!?
YOU CAN’T JUST CALL THINGS WHENEVER YOU WANT!
Silver linings. Silver linings. Silver linings.
WOW
well first of all, Im jealous. I want to be at the game tonight, but I have a midterm. Poli. sci sucks , don’t you feel bad for me. (I also have a sick kid )
second , this is another perfect example of what we are going up against. Seriously , w/o Brandon Roy , the Blazers can play all the Lock Down defense they want, but what diff. does it make when we cant keep up, scoring wise.
Blah
Sophia twitter.com/sophiabiabia
The Princess of Blazersedge
It just takes an iron fist to keep the riff raff under control and her princess hand is mad strong- Idoltime
After the fact
You were spot on. The defense wasn’t bad all night, but the Blazers couldn’t buy a bucket last night.
#52
by blazermaniac32 on Feb 10, 2010 5:39 AM PST up reply actions
Another Chart
I should have another interesting chart to post in a while, It’ll be based on possessions/game and PP(P+A) Points per possession plus assists since some of you seem to be hung up on PPP not including a weighting for Assists.
Follow me on Twitter @invisininjapdx
Take Durant off the Thunder and you have the Nets
It’s amazing how bad that Thunder roster looks without Durant – go down the two line ups – who would you rather have?
Harris or Westbrook – slight edge westbrook, but mostly a push
Lopez vs. Green – Lopez hands down
TWill + CDR+Courtney Lee vs. Weaver + Harden + Sefolosha?
I concede an edge to the Thunder in slow white bigs, but thats about it, the rest of the roster is a push at best for the Thunder.
So how much of the current 25 win, pacing to 40 win difference is Durant, and how much is the coaching staff?
by capital knockers on Feb 9, 2010 1:41 PM PST reply actions
You're drastically underrating the defensive edge the Thunder have
Devin Harris has regressed as much this year as I can recall any player in recent times.
Weaver has barely played this year.
And you’re discounting the contributions of Collison and Ibaka who have been huge in shoring up the interior off the bench.
Ibaka is going to be a great asset there.
He’s definitely on this way and his upside for his position is Batum-esque.
There's a fairly large chance that Ibaka
never puts it together on the offensive end and has a nice career as the energy/rebounding/shot-blocking big man off the bench. But the dude’s only 20 and the speed of his progression has taken pretty much everyone in the organization by surprise; with his tools, sky’s the limit.
I definitely disagree there.
His mid range jumper is already NBA good. He’s shooting an eFG of .444 on his jump shots already, and that would’ve ranked him in the top 10 of all big men in the league last year (right between Scola, Wallace, Yao, Garnett and Amare).
That alone, should Durant ever learn to pass could be a huge weapon. We already know he has the capability of being an elite 4, the jumper should seal him as the 4 of the future there. The fact he’s so young and already doing this makes it scary.
.
He’s still a black hole on offense; once you make the entry pass, it’s not coming back out. The ability to hit the occasional mid-range J when the defense isn’t concentrating on you is one thing, but that’s a far cry from a solid back-to-the-basket, create-your-own-shot kind of game.
the difference there, I think, is that Batum understands the game and Ibaka.,.. I dunno. He looks like a really nice energy guy who is great off the weakside, but I haven’t seen huge BBIQ plya.
#52 #10 #25 #7
I think the most you can say about Ibaka's BBIQ
is that he was playing limited minutes in a second tier Spanish league last year. The year before that he was in the Congo. To get to where he is now from where he was just a few months ago is pretty astonishing.
Of course there is an art to presenting data to a desired effect.
Not using a zero based scale, while certainly appropriate for simply not presenting a lot of white space, does accentuate small differences. A higher number of possessions does support a greater consistency, but all the players have a lot of touches.
I was noting we were one of the teams with 2 players with a 1 or above PPG, along with Phoenix and Dallas, I may have missed others. Good for LaMarcus (and us).
By the way, while he may not have had enough games/possessions to be on the chart, I am thinking Greg would have looked real good on this chart. That little titbit really needs to be added, with an asterisk. :-)
But, regardless, Durant is awesome ! I am looking forward to him having a great game. I am still a bit disappointed with the “brain trust” for that draft. But we will make due.
"Travis went all wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow on everybody " Dave's recap, season opener
oops, ah, that's TIDBIT...
… fading silently away…
"Travis went all wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow on everybody " Dave's recap, season opener
ahh, and PPP not PPG....
"Travis went all wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow on everybody " Dave's recap, season opener
You forgot Atlanta
with Crawford and Johnson both being 1 or better. I do think that LaMarcus’ spot on that chart shows that he doesn’t deserve all the criticism he receives, he just needs more plays run for him.
I'll take a guy who is not afraid to show his junk over some shy kid any day
GO ODEN!
The Leeroy Rule: being insistent >>>> being correct
by leeroyjenkins on Feb 9, 2010 1:52 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
selfish
What happened to this season???? It went under the surgeon's knife. But its not over yet. Hold tough. This team will be battle hardened. Tough. Honed to a fine edge. They will be playing playoff style – nine man rotation – for a significant portion of the season. Dividends will be paid. - Tiparillo on Dec 15, 2009 11:48 AM PST on Game 26 Preview: Kings vs. Blazers on Blazersedge
Good enough that it makes me a little bit sick to read about him.
Seriously, though – this a FanShot on Blazersedge, and a front page post on Welcome to Loud City.
I don’t like joining the “This Should Be A FanShot” army, but the KD/Oden “debate” is a touchy subject around here, and any Durant talk exasperates that. If this is part of the pregame coverage, roll it into a more complete pregame post.
CKTK: A music blog. We write about what we want to write about.
"All I ask of you is one thing: please don’t be cynical. I hate cynicism. For the record, it’s my least favorite quality, and it doesn’t lead anywhere. Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they would get. But, if you work hard and you’re kind, I’m telling you, amazing things will happen."
-Conan O'Brien
Henry Abbott putting oil on the fire
Name that player
There’s an NBA player who had these per game stats in the month of January:
32 points
Eight rebounds
Three assists
52% field goal shooting
53% 3-point field goal shooting
90% free-throw percentage
The Oden/Durant debate in the JD is fantastic.
A positive attitude will not solve all of your problems but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort - Herm Albright
Keep the faith.
The only dif between KD and GO is this...
GO can be The Real Deal. Durant IS The Real Deal.
Excuse me for the lack of critical thinking, but i sometimes wonder if it’s all just dumb luck – Greg gets drafted by Boston and he’s probably a 3-time All-Star. LoL
I’d take this starting line-up, though:
Joel
Texas Tower 1
Texas Tower 2
Roy
Miller
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.
by Net Ranger on Feb 9, 2010 5:24 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Rec for Luck comment.
ish happens.
A positive attitude will not solve all of your problems but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort - Herm Albright
Keep the faith.
And ish
certainly happens to the Blazers!
Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson
Could you do me a favor?
Can you tell me how you made this chart? I would like to do one for my Wake site (with credit to you) but I can’t figure out the chart. thanks.
i like turtles
If you weren't a jail blazers fan...
you aren't a trail blazers fan.
by rudy fernandez forever on Feb 10, 2010 12:13 AM PST reply actions
I would not have had the guts either
When the initial debate was raging whom to pick first I thought it was a no brainer to pick Oden. The more I found out the history and playing style of the two the more I started thinking Durant. Physically, I loved the way he played. He reminded me of Roy. He rarely explodes up, but uses his height and length to break people down. Roy uses his dribbling and slight of hand to make the defender commit. Durant’s shot is soo consistent and effortless from range. But the thing that really got me thinking was how single minded he was to basketball. After all the jailblazers, I loved a guy that just wanted to play and practice and destroy you on the court. I believe it was KP that mentioned the word assassin. Even though the aircraft carrier was the conventional choice KP said it was a hard decision. Deep down I wanted Durant but I thought Oden would be the safer pic. Funny, how it has worked out. By the time next season starts Durant will have played in 150 more games, logging over 7000 more minutes and scoring over 5000 more points than Oden.
by LicketyBrindleDowntheMiddle on Feb 10, 2010 9:39 AM PST reply actions
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