Sched Ahead 2/8/10, Week Fifteen -- Tie-breakers Revisited

Yes, we got clobbered at Utah.  Yes, our home streak against the L@kers died (though our home streak against K*be is intact, so we have that).

Interestingly enough, the task of getting this hobbled team to the playoffs, even with Brandon out until after the break, even with Jerryd now battling injuries, has gotten easier, as New Orleans and Memphis have gone into reverse, and neither Houston nor San Antonio are looking particularly good.  Even Dallas lost at home to Minnesota this week.

After the usual schedule analysis, at the bottom of the post we'll look again at the playoff tie-breaker status as it stands today, three weeks on from our last look.

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  "Cream Puff" Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  "Jawbreaker" Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  "Banana Peel" Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  "Rocky Road".

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 ("Cream Puff" Home), a majority of Cat 2 ("Jawbreaker" Home) and Cat 3 ("Banana Peel" Road), and win some in Cat 4 ("Rocky Road").  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

The jscot Stupid Sched Projections methodology is explained in this post.  Since they are stupid projections, it doesn't bear repeating here.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

Chicago comes crashing back down to earth, and is now a losing team.  Games against Chicago are now recategorized from Cat 2 & 4 to Cat 1 & 3.  So also Charlotte and Miami (who is suddenly looking like they've waved goodby to a +.500 record for good.

Impact:  Our Cat 4 wins at Miami and Charlotte become Cat 3 wins.  Our Cat 2 wins against Chicago and Charlotte, and our Cat 2 loss against Miami, all move into Cat 1.  Our game at Chicago will be Cat 3 instead of Cat 4.  Every team is impacted similarly. 

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-2).  We opened with a Cat 2 at home (now recategorized to Cat 1) against Charlotte, and handled it nicely.  Then, we went on the "Rocky Road" for a Cat 4 at rampant Utah, who handled it nicely.  We came home for a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" against San Antonio (both teams BtoB), and got the win we needed to maintain our challenge one more week.  I think there was another game sometime this week, but it seems to have been blacked out somehow. 

Dallas (1-2) had their second straight losing week, dropping a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Utah, winning a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" at home against Golden State (who was on a BtoB), then dropping another Cat 1 at home to Minnesota (who played spoiler more than once this week).  Dallas suddenly no longer looks like a #2 team in the West -- they don't even look like a sure thing for home court advantage in the playoffs.   

Denver (2-2) ran into a little bump in the road as they were cruising towards the NW division title and the probable #2 seed.  It started fine, with a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" at home against the Kings, but then a Cat 2 home "Jawbreaker" against Phoenix turned sour.  They got that back with a nice Cat 4 at L.A., but then ran into a buzzsaw on a Cat 4 BtoB "Rocky Road" at Utah, who is playing better ball than anyone right now. 

Houston (2-1) started with a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" win against Golden State at home.  They followed with a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" win at Memphis, which would be impressive except that Memphis suddenly had their carriage turn into a pumpkin.  The Rockets then threw away what would have been a nice week with a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" loss to Philadelphia.

L.A.  (2-2) started with a BtoB Cat 4 "Rocky Road" loss at Memphis (yes, there is someone out there who is losing to Memphis recently).  They then went home and won a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" against Charlotte and lost a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" against Denver.  Then, on a BtoB Cat 4 they (censored).

Memphis (1-3).  Has the clock struck midnight, and Cinderella turned into, well, a bunch of Grizzlies?  One win in their last six, and three losses in a row.  This week, they started with a nice home Cat 2 win against L.A., and then lost a Cat 4 at Cleveland on a BtoB -- such losses are easily forgiven.  Then, they lost a Cat 2 back home against Houston (not recommended for playoff contenders, but it happens).  The proof that their challenge is really in trouble was they then lost a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Minnesota.  1-5 over 9 days, including losses to Minnesota and a home loss to N.O. when they are without CP3, and you have to say you are sliding towards oblivion (or at least the lottery).  On the "Hold but watch" list of investments -- "Do not buy".

N.O. (1-3).  Yes, there is a team that struggled worse than Memphis.  They started the week with two testing but winnable Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" home games, against Phoenix and OKC.  In both games, the visiting team was on a BtoB, so the Hornets really needed to get at least one of them, but it was not to be.  Things went from bad to worse with a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" home loss to Philly -- yes, four SW division teams lost to a losing team this week.  The Hornets rescued some measure of respectability with a nice Cat 3 "Banana Peel" win on a BtoB at Charlotte, in the annual "Aren't the Hornets the home team?" matchup.

The OKC Blunder (3-0) believe in streaks.  Their last 15 goes like this: win 2, lose 2, win 3, lose 3, win 5....  I recommend we start them on the losing thing again.  The got a nice Cat 2 home win against Atlanta, a Cat 4 BtoB at New Orleans, and then a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Golden State.  If they don't quit this winning thing, they are going to be a playoff team, and right now they look more deserving than at least 3-4 of the teams in the race.  It will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure of the playoff chase after the all-star break -- if other teams play well enough to put them under pressure, that is.

Phoenix (3-0) is suddenly rolling, after December and January destroyed the cushion they had built up in November.  It is now five straight for them, and these three were all on the road, a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at N.O. (on a BtoB), another at Denver, and then a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Sacramento.  It looked like it was slipping away, but now they look pretty secure for a decent seed (though the West is tough enough, one bad spell can put them right back in the muck).

S.A. (2-1) is more of the same, continuing to "impress" against losing teams with two Cat 3 "Banana Peel" wins at Sacramento and the Clips, and continuing far from impressive against winning teams, with a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" loss at Portland (both teams BtoB). 

Utah (3-0) is looking like a legit top 4 team, a team that can take anyone.  They have eight in a row and 12 of their last 13.  This week, it was three Cat 2 "Jawbreakers" at home, against Dallas, Portland, and Denver (Nuggets on a BtoB).  It's a shame about the injuries, it would have been really fun to see a healthy Portland team win the division against two quality rivals in Denver and Utah.  Next year, neither team is likely to be as strong, and we'll be even better than we would have this year. 

No Western contender lost to a losing team last week.  This week?  The entire SW division, except for San Antonio, lost to a loser. 

Helped themselves:  OKC, Phoenix, Utah.

Treading water: Portland, Houston, S.A.  

Hurt themselves:  Dallas, Denver, L.A., Memphis, N.O..

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Two of our Cat 4 wins turned into Cat 3s, and we lost at Utah.  We still have the second best record in this category.  San Antonio has a lot more of these games left than we do.  Phoenix and Houston have the fewest left, which should help their challenge the rest of the way.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Recategorization changed a bunch of numbers around.  The key thing here is that Memphis was the only team to take a loss in this category this week.  Don't expect to see too many losses in this category after the break as playoff contenders increase their concentration -- they won't lose a lot, home or away, to losing teams. 

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Most teams have one or more tough home games remaining than we do.  N.O., OKC, and Phoenix have the most. 

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

We're middle of the pack in terms of easy games remaining.  OKC and S.A. have the fewest "Cream Puffs" left, which could impact the race.

All Home Games

We are now near the bottom in remaining home games.  This is in part because we have played more games than any of our rivals -- we don't have a major home / away imbalance like San Antonio or Utah.  Look for Dallas, Phoenix, OKC, and Houston to benefit from more home games the rest of the way.

All Away Games

The loss at Utah put as below .500 on the road for the first time since November first.  S.A. still has a huge home/road disparity, despite playing three on the road this week.  Utah will find it harder to maintain their divisional challenge with 7 more road games than home games the rest of the way. 

All Games Against Winning Teams

Some difficulties ahead for N.O. (lots of home games, but lots of games against winning teams), Denver, and S.A.  We have the fewest remaining games against winning teams. 

All Games Against Losing Teams

We're middle of the pack here.  Utah has a lot of road games left, but also a lot of games against losing teams.  

Back to Back Games Remaining

Another BtoB down this week, another win.  This time, it was against a team (the Spurs) that was also on a BtoB.  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Most of the schedule disparities here are gone.  Most teams will win some of their back to backs, anyway, so a disparity of 1 or 2 over 30 games means little.  

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

Again, a little help for Dallas, Denver, Houston, and N.O. from playing "tired opponents" games, but it shouldn't be a major factor down the stretch. 

The Projections

Here is the vital stuff:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but if we want to talk about stupid, you are actually reading this.

End of year rankings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa.

1. L.A.  59.9 wins (down from 60.3).   
2. Denver.  54.6 wins (down from 55.3).
3. Dallas.  51.3 wins (down from 51.8).
4. Utah.  51.3 wins (up from 50.8).
5. Phoenix.  50.3 wins (up from 47.6).  
6. Portland.  46.2 wins (down from 46.9).
7. OKC.  46.0 wins (up from 44.3 in 10th).
8. Houston.  45.8 wins (down from 46.1).
9. S.A.  45.2 wins (down from 46.6 in 7th).
10. Memphis.  42.7 wins (down from 44.3, up from 11th).
11. N.O.  42.4 wins (down from 45.2 in 9th).

Utah is breathing down Dallas' neck, Phoenix moves way up.  As last week, the projections put 46 wins as necessary for a playoff spot, but as of today there are only 9 legit contenders for the top eight spots, with two teams still in striking distance but dropping back.  The gap between Portland in 6th and 11th position last week was 2.6 wins, this week it is 3.8.  Two teams dropping back, two behind us (Houston and S.A.) looking somewhat vulnerable, and an opportunity this week to increase the gap between us and the other team just behind us.

Up until this week, it just got tighter and tighter.  The danger was always that several teams behind us would go on a hot streak like Utah, OKC, and Phoenix have done.  We could withstand a couple teams doing that, but every team that drops back decreases that danger.

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Two more big games before the break, a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" at home against OKC, and a BtoB Cat 4 at Phoenix.  Both opponents play only one game this week, against us.  Both have won their last five.  As we continue this "Staying Alive" phase of the season without Brandon, if we want to maintain our challenge for better than an 8 seed, we need to get one -- two would be a bonus.     
2. Dallas.  Having lost 4 of the last 5, they need to get back on track, but this shortened week won't be easy.  A Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Golden State and then a BtoB Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Denver.  
3. Denver.  Two games, a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" against Dallas (Mavs on a BtoB), then another against San Antonio.      
4. Houston.  Only one game, a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Miami.    
5. L.A.  A Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" at home against the Spurs, then a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Utah, with the Jazz on a BtoB.     
6. Memphis.  After 11 straight home wins, they've lost 3 of their last 4.  They get one try this week, but it won't be easy, a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" hosting Atlanta.  They desperately need a win.  
7. N.O.  Two games, a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Orlando (Magic on a BtoB) and then a Cat 2 at home against Boston.  If they can figure out a way to get one of them, they'll stay alive for another week. 
8. The "Blunder".  Just one game, Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Portland.  This is probably the best opportunity they'll get to pay us back for winning in OKC earlier this year.  They would love to go into the break on a six game winning streak.
9. Phoenix.  A week and a half ago, they looked like they might be on their way out of the playoff picture.  Five straight wins, including four on the road and four against winning teams, and they look like a contender for home court advantage.  They have only one game, a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" against Portland, who will be on a BtoB. 
10. S.A.  Two Cat 4 Rocky Road games, at L.A. and Denver.  Doesn't get much harder than that.  A split would be a great week.  They've been saving most of their tough games until the later part of the season, now they pay the piper. 
11. Utah.  Two games, a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at the Clippers, then a BtoB "Jawbreaker" at home against the L@kers.  Can they keep it rolling until the break?  That game at the Clips may be more dangerous for them than it looks.  

Let's go back in time.  After the Milwaukee game, if you had known we would have to play the next 15 games with: 1) Brandon playing only one half of one game 2) all the other injuries 3) Jerryd missing some time with injuries as well 4) 8 road games (5 against winning teams) 5) 6 of the 7 home games against winning teams, and the 7th against a hot Charlotte team, what would you have thought? 

I would have taken a 5-10 record over those 15 games.  If you had offered me the chance to fast forward and take five wins, I'd have thought about it and taken it.  There were no easy games, not a single one.  I would have said that if we finished this stretch with 5 wins, that would have kept us 3 games above .500 coming out of the ASB, with Brandon back, and still in a position to make a stretch run.  If you had offered me six wins out of the 15, I wouldn't have even had to think about it.  Six wins out of the last 15 before the ASB, without our centers, without Brandon, without Travis, with Rudy still struggling with confidence, with Nic not yet back to full strength?  It's ludicrous to expect we could get six against that schedule.

Except that is what we have, with two games left.  6-7 in this stretch.  You have to love this team.

A Look at Tie-Breakers

We looked at this 3 weeks ago, but several things have changed since then.

From NBA.com, bottom of the standings page:

TIEBREAKER BASIS:
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(3) Division won-lost percentage
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games

Dispensing with tie-breaker #1

Tiebreaker #1 kicks in only if we end up in a tie with the winners of the Southwest or Pacific divisions (if we end up in a tie for the NW division, it is irrelevant).  Suffice to say that if we end up in a tie with the winners of either of those divisions, we will be in the playoffs with a very good seed -- so I'm not going to worry about that one. 

L.A.

The only tie-breaker that matters here is #2, head to head.  We are 1-1, with one game remaining in L.A.  To win the tie-breaker, we need to win that game.  Strong edge to L.A.

Denver

The second tie-breaker is head to head.  We are 1-1 against them, with two games at Denver.  The first is on March 7th, and we have three days off before that game, while they host Indiana two nights earlier.  The second is on April 1st, a back to back for us (home against NY the night before).  If they win both, they win the tie-breaker.  If we win both, we win it.  If we split, it goes to #3, division record.  They are 7-4 (losses at Utah and OKC in the three weeks since we looked at this), we are 5-4 (losses home and away to Utah in the last three weeks).  If we can split in Denver, tie-breaker #3 looks fairly even.  In conference (tie-breaker #4), they are 21-11 while we are 19-12 -- we've lost our edge over them here, slight advantage at this point to Denver.  In reality, we're five games behind them, and to end up in a tie-breaker with them, we are going to have to win a lot more games than they will the rest of the way, which means IF we tie them, we will at least match them on #3 and we will beat them on #4.  Head to head, though, is likely to go their way.  Edge to Denver.

Dallas

Criterion #2 is head to head.  We are 2-0 against them.  We host them twice, in late March and in early April, needing one win to win the tie-breaker.  If they win both, it goes to the next tie-breaker, conference record -- we are 19-12, they are 17-14.  We've lost some of our edge here, and if they beat us twice, we would be tied in conference, as well.  However, those two losses would put us so far behind them that we would have to dominate the rest of our conference games to tie them in the standings, and we would have a better conference record.  If we end up tied with Dallas, strong edge to Portland on tie-breaker.

Utah

We are 0-3 against Utah, with only one home game left on 2/21.  Utah wins the tie-breaker. 

Phoenix

We only play Phoenix three times, so head to head will decide it.  We are 1-0, with the two remaining games in Phoenix, this week (we play OKC the night before) and March 21 (neither team on a BtoB).  If we win one of those two games, we win the tie-breaker.  We should have a decent chance to split those games and win the tiebreaker.  Slight edge to Portland.

S.A.

We are 3-0 against them, with no games remaining.  The only way they win a tie-breaker with us is if they win their division, we don't win ours, and we are tied (tie-breaker #1).  We win the tie-breaker with San Antonio.

OKC

We are 1-0 against the "Blunder", with home games on 2/9 and 4/12 (both teams on a BtoB, we play at the L@kers and they play at G.S. the night before), and an away game on 3/28 (BtoB for us, we play at N.O. the night before).  They need to win one in Portland and hold their home court to take it to divisional record.  We are 5-4 in division, they are 4-2 (the main difference being they haven't played Minnesota yet have only played Minnesota once).  If they can get 2 of 3 against us, it increases their divisional advantage as well.  If it should go to conference record, we are 19-12 and they are 13-15.  If we hold home-court against them, we win the tie-breaker.  If they can beat us three straight, they win.  If they win two of three, they have an advantage on divisional record.  If they win two of three and we can catch them on divisional record, it is doubtful they beat us on conference record.  The head to head is key, and we have the advantage.  Edge to Portland.

Houston

We are 2-2 against Houston.  Since we are in different divisions the next relevant tie-breaker is #4, conference record.  We are 19-12, they are 21-14.  Interestingly, they have played 3 fewer games than us, but four more in conference.  This could actually go to tie-breaker #5, W/L percentage against playoff teams in the Western Conference.  Using the current standings, we are #8 and they are #9, so this would be against the 7 teams ahead of us.  We are 5-2 on the road against those teams (!!!), 5-3 at home, 10-5 overall.  Houston is 4-5 on the road, 3-6 at home, 7-11 overall.  Tie-breaker #2 is tied, #4 is up in the air, we own #5.  Slight edge to Portland.

N.O.

We are 1-1 against the Hornets, with one game remaining, away on 3/27.  Neither team is on a BtoB.  They are tough at home -- we needed to win in Portland to get this one.  Probably won't matter -- they will probably be out of the hunt before CP3 returns, but they are likely to own the tie-breaker against us if it comes to that.  Strong edge to New Orleans.

Memphis

We are 1-2 against Memphis, with one more on 3/1 at Memphis.  The matchup is difficult for us, and it is in Memphis.  However, if we can win that one, they are 17-18 in conference and we are 19-12, so we should win the next tie-breaker easily.  Edge to Memphis.