Sched Ahead Daily Update, Games of 2/23

.

Yesterday's update.

Most recent weekly update, including game category definitions.

Yesterday's Games

Four games of interest.

1. Portland @ New Jersey.  Credit to NJ for some great shooting to make it interesting in the second half, though why we never attacked Harris in the third quarter to get him out of the game I don't know.  Good to see Brandon looking better, and the win certainly helps us, and strengthens our position considerably due to other results.  It also takes some pressure off the rest of the trip, as we only have to play .500 ball the rest of the way for a winning trip.
2. New Orleans @ Cleveland.  Hornets lose on the "Rocky Road" at Cleveland, despite 37 for Marcus Thornton and 22 plus 10 assists for Collison, as the Cavs used balanced scoring, with six men in double figures, to win the game.  N.O. was 4-17 on 3s, but take away Thornton's contribution and they were 1-10.  Tough start to a tough week for New Orleans.
3. Phoenix @ OKC.  Steve Nash sat out with a back injury, Barbosa still isn't back, so Dragic stepped up with 16 points and 10 assists, Amare scored 30, and Jason Richardson scored 20 including the game winner in the last second, as Phoenix broke OKC's 9 game winning streak.  Durant had 36 to keep his 25 points plus streak going, and Westbrook continued his hot streak with 21 points and 10 assists, but Jeff Green wasn't as effective as he has been recently, only hitting 5 of 14 shots.  The Suns move ahead of the "Blunder" into 5th in the standings.  The spreadsheet already liked them more than OKC, but this solidifies that -- OKC looks as likely to "Blunder" their way back into the 7-8 seed discussion as to contend for top 4-5, at this point in time.
4. L@kers @ Memphis.  Kobe is back, and hits a game-winning three, as the Grizz drop back to .500, and further from the playoff spots.  They have three winnable games remaining this week, and need them all, they are just getting too far behind to maintain a credible challenge if they don't start closing the gap soon.  Memphis was up 5 with 40 seconds left, but Kobe hit two threes, and in between Mayo missed two free throws with 18 seconds left that could have sealed the win.  Zach, playing against him, broke Pau Gasol's Memphis franchise record for offensive rebounds in a season.  Mayo had 25, and Zach had 20 and 14 rebounds.  Kobe finished with 32, and Pau had 22 and 13.  Ron-Ron shot 1 for 9 from the field -- without him, the L@kers shot a superb 36 of 67.

Elsewhere, Sergio started for NY in Boston and shot 7-10, 3-4 on 3s, and had 18 points and six assists in 38 minutes.

Projections

1. L.A.  61.3 wins (up from 60.4).   
2. Denver.  54.0 wins.
3. Utah.  53.5 wins.
4. Dallas.  52.4 wins.
5. Phoenix.  50.5 wins (up from 49.8).  
6. OKC.  48.7 wins (down from 49.3).
7. Portland.  46.5 wins (up from 45.8).
8. S.A.  44.2 wins.
9. Houston.  42.8 wins (unchanged, up from 10th).
10. N.O.  42.7 wins (down from 43.1 in 9th).
11. Memphis.  40.8 wins (down from 41.5).

A good night for us.  OKC is still well ahead, but a tough remaining schedule looms for them.  The gap over the chasing teams is increasing, we're now projecting 3.7 wins ahead of 9th place, and the time for teams to make up the gap keeps getting shorter.  New Orleans, the team that is perhaps most dangerous to our playoff chances because Chris Paul will return at some point, drops into 10th.  This night did not seal a playoff spot for us by any means, but it helped a lot.

Tonight

1. Portland @ Toronto.  A back to back Cat 4 "Rocky Road" game.  A win in this game and the road trip is in the "respectable" category already, and headed for "good" or "great".  These guys are very tough at home these days, but we have been outstanding on the second game of a back to back.  Get this one, and the chasing pack is going to start casting their eyes on San Antonio as the team they need to catch.  Wild card:  we got a couple more injuries -- that always seems to make us play better for a while, especially on a back to back.  Chris Bosh has been out with a sprained ankle and is listed as day to day.
2. Memphis @ Washington.  Cat 3 "Banana Peel" back to back for the Grizzlies.  Washington has been playing very well since the trades, but Josh Howard just went out for the year.  Memphis has a chance to bounce right back after a tough loss at home to L.A., but this could be tricky -- Andre Blatche has been on a tear, and Al Thornton has been playing superbly since the trade.  No reason Memphis should lose this, really, but it certainly is possible, and if they do, they drop below .500 and we can put them in the "Inside the toaster and praying for a power failure" category -- not quite toast yet, but not really viable to expect them to be anything but toast.
3. N.O. @ Milwaukee.  A tough Cat 3 "Banana Peel" back to back for the Hornets against a Bucks team that is only one game below .500 and has been playing very well recently.  Another team with a tough loss to an elite team last night, with their playoff hopes fading, and up against a losing team on the road the very next night.  The difference is that Milwaukee is only one game below .500, very tough at home, and making a playoff push.  Two rookie PGs head to head in this one, and both teams desperately need a win.
4. Orlando @ Houston.  A Cat 2 home "Jawbreaker" for the Rockets, trying to find a way to win since their big trade, but running into a team that is starting to click and looking like a contender again.  Another loss and the Rockets are down to .500, and looking for the off-switch on that toaster, too.  The Magic have won 7 of their last 10.
5. OKC @ S.A.  A big game for both teams, a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" back to back for the "Blunder", a Cat 2 for the Spurs, who have struggled to win home games against winning teams this year.  If OKC loses, it is two in a row, and suddenly they find their top 5 challenge completely fizzling, and the chasing pack breathing down their neck.  If S.A. loses, they continue their horrible record against winning teams, even at home, and are unable to get a win against a non-elite team even when they are on a tough back to back.  A Spurs loss and a Portland win would make us favorites to beat them in the seeding hunt -- remember, we own the tie-breaker by virtue of sweeping the season series.  With Brandon starting to look like Brandon Roy again, our chances of finishing ahead of at least one of these teams are looking better, and one of them is going to lose.
6. L.A. @ Dallas.  Another matchup of Western contenders, arguably the two best in the West, a Cat 4 (back to back) for the L@kers and Cat 2 for Dallas.  Sasha is out for a while (maybe that's why there were rumors of him coming to Portland), Dampier is out for a few weeks, but everyone else should play. 
7. Philadelphia @ Phoenix.  Cat 1 "Cream Puff" for the Suns, with both teams on a back to back.  The Sixers will be without Iverson, who may be done for the year.  Nash missed last night, I don't know his status for this game, but it shouldn't matter.
8. Charlotte @ Utah.  A Cat 1 "Cream Puff" (supposedly) for the Jazz, who should have Deron Williams back (listed as probable).  Charlotte is no cream puff, of course, at only one game under .500.  Stephen Jackson was 1-16 in his last game against the Clippers, perhaps the law of averages will give him a 15-16 night tonight.  AK47, Tyson Chandler, and Nazr Mohammed are all listed as "questionable".

The only Western contender not playing is Denver, and several will be underdogs.  If we win, we'll make up ground on at least two teams, and probably three or four.  I expect at least two of the chasing teams to lose, and if we can win this one, arguably the toughest game on the road trip, we have a chance to pretty much put this playoff battle to rest this week.