Which Teams Will Have Cap Room This Summer?
by Storyteller on Feb 25, 2010 1:46 PM PST
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PrintClick through to read a comprehensive summary of every NBA team's current salary cap situation and some excellent analysis regarding what each might be able to do this summer from Blazersedge's Salary Cap Guru Storyteller. Some exceptional off-day reading.
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
Storyteller writes...
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Now that the trade deadline has come and gone in the NBA, I've updated my predictions as to which teams will have significant cap room this summer (ie, more than the expected MLE amount) to be able to make either free agent acquisitions or for use in making lopsided trades. Although I must still be clear that all we can do today is make educated guesses – we don’t know what next year’s salary cap will be, plus trades and signings can still take place over the next 4 months that would obviously affect team salary situations. So for purposes of this evaluation, my assumption is that no major roster changes will take place between now and July 1st.
Oh, and for purposes of this ‘prediction’, I’m assuming a cap figure of $53.5 million. That assumes that BRI will drop significantly this year and that predicted BRI for the 2010-11 season drops as well. Over the last several months, we’ve seen predictions that such a decrease is inevitable, as well as preliminary figures of league revenue that would indicate that this will be the case, Plus, last year, the NBA distributed a memo to its teams warning them of an expected drop in BRI which would directly affect the 2010-11 salary cap figure. I am using the top end of the prediction from this memo for this prognostication.
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So here are my best guesses as to which teams will have significant cap space in July, barring any major player transactions between now and then. I’ve tried to make the best assumptions possible about team options, player options, guaranteed contracts and ETOs, but as I’m not an expert on every team in the NBA and what they are likely to do, I reserve the right to adjust these guesses over time as I receive your inevitable feedback (which is absolutely welcome!) on which of these are likely and which are unlikely to actually count in next season’s figures:
CHICAGO currently has 6 players under contract for 2010-11 in Deng, Hinrich, Rose, Noah, Johnson and Gibson. There will be a cap hold for their first round draft pick, which I’m assuming will be pick #19, making the hold $1,371,200. If the Bulls renounce their rights to all free agents, they could have $17.91 million in cap room, after accounting for 5 cap holds of $473,604 for having fewer than 12 players on the roster.
LA CLIPPERS currently have Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin under contract for 2010-11. Assuming that they don’t get Minnesota’s first round pick (due to protection on the pick) and that their own first round pick is #10, that adds a cap hold of $1.37 million. I’m assuming that DeAndre Jordan will be retained and that his full contract will count against the cap. After accounting for 6 cap holds of $473,604 for having fewer than 12 players on the roster, the Clippers look to have $15.26 million in cap room if they do not make a qualifying offer to Mardy Collins.
MIAMI currently has only Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook fully guaranteed for 2010-11. I’m assuming that the Heat will pick up the team option on Mario Chalmers and that Joel Anthony picks up his player option. Also, I’m assuming that their first round draft pick is #17 and that they get Toronto’s first round pick (assumed to be #18), which adds two cap holds that total $2.54 million. Finally, I’m assuming that they will renounce all their free agents and that the team does not retain James Jones, so that only the guaranteed amount of his contract ($1.86 million) counts against the cap, which means that there will be 5 cap holds of $473,604 applied for having fewer than 12 players on the roster. In the end, Miami looks to have $20.72 million in cap room if Dwyane Wade picks up his player option. If Wade does not pick up his player option, his free agent cap hold will leave the Heat with $21.30 million in cap room. And if Wade leaves for another team, the Heat would be left with $37.39 million in cap room.
MINNESOTA currently has Jefferson, Sessions, Love, Flynn, Brewer, Hollins and Ellington guaranteed for 2010-11. As for first round draft picks, the assumption is that their own pick will be #2 and that they will also have #15 from Charlotte and #24 from Utah – these three carry cap holds totaling $6.24 million. Rubio’s cap hold will also be in play at $2.81 million. Finally, I’m assuming that they release Ryan Gomes so that only the $1.0 million guaranteed counts against their cap in July and that they renounce all rights to their free agents, which means that a single cap hold of $473,604 for having fewer than 12 players on the roster would be applied. All this would leave the Timberwolves with $12.06 million in cap room.
NEW JERSEY currently has Harris, Jianlian, Lopez, Lee and Terrence Williams guaranteed for 2010-11. I am assuming that they pick up the team option on Douglas-Roberts and that Humphries picks up his player option. In terms of first round draft picks, I’m assuming that their own pick will be #1 and that they also get the #23 pick from Dallas, which means two cap holds totaling $5.29 million. I’m also assuming that they will release Dooling so that only $500,000 of his salary is applied against the cap. Finally, I’m assuming that Josh Boone does not get a qualifying offer and that they renounce all rights to their free agents, which means that there will be 3 cap holds of $473,604 for having fewer than 12 players on the roster. This would leave the Nets with $23.22 million in cap room.
NEW YORK currently has only Gallinari, Chandler and Douglas guaranteed for 2010-11, although my assumption is that Curry will pick up his player option. I also assume that the team waives Bill Walker and his non-guaranteed contract, that they do not tender a qualifying offer to Sergio Rodriguez and that they renounce all rights to their free agents. After accounting for 8 cap holds of $473,604 for having fewer than 12 players on the roster, the Knicks would be left with $31.93 million in cap room. This would leave NY just short of being able to offer two max contracts to players such as James, Wade or Bosh (they would need $33.04 million in cap room to do so).
OKLAHOMA CITY currently has Collison, Krstic, Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Green, Sefolosha, Maynor, Mullens, White and Ibaka under contract for 2010-11. As for first round draft picks, I’m assuming that their own pick is #21 and that they get #20 from Phoenix, which makes for cap holds for $2.22 million. Finally, I’m assuming that the team keeps Weaver, guaranteeing his $0.94 million, but that they renounce all rights to their free agents. This would leave the Thunder with $11.28 million in cap room.
SACRAMENTO currently has Nocioni, Udrih, Garcia, Evans, Hawes, Thompson, Greene and Casspi under contract for 2010-11. I’m also assuming that they end up with the #4 pick in the draft which adds a cap hold of $3.11 million. Finally, I’m assuming that the team picks up the team option on Landry, that Dorsey is not waived, guaranteeing his full $0.95 million salary and that all rights to their free agents are renounced. After accounting for a single cap hold of $473,604 for having fewer than 12 players on the roster, this would leave the Kings with $15.93 million in cap room.
WASHINGTON – After trading away Jamison and Butler, the Wizards could easily be under the cap this summer. Arenas, Blatche, Thornton, Young and McGee represent $28.0 million in guaranteed contracts. I’m assuming that Ross picks up his player option and that Foye does not get a qualifying offer. As for first round picks, I’m assuming that their own pick is #6 and that the pick from Cleveland is #30, which adds two cap holds totaling $3.4 million. After accounting for cap holds for having fewer than 12 players on their roster, Washington could have $19.0 million in cap space if they don’t pick up Howard’s team option or nearly $7.7 million in cap space if they pick up the team option.
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Here, quickly, are the teams that look to be above the cap this summer, barring any major roster moves between now and then:
ATLANTA – Even before re-signing Joe Johnson, the Hawks have Smith, Crawford, Williams, Bibby, Pachulia and Horford under contract (among others). I’m also assuming they make another qualifying offer to Josh Childress. All of this should keep Atlanta well above the cap next summer.
BOSTON – I guess Paul Pierce could use his ETO and give up more than $21 million. But I don’t think there’s any way he will. You add Garnett, Wallace, Rondo and Perkins to the mix and the Celtics are already nearing $60 million in team salary – meaning that even if they don’t re-sign Ray Allen, Boston is going to be above the cap.
CHARLOTTE – If the miraculous happens and both Chandler and Mohammed exercise their ETOs, the Bobcats could be below the cap if they don’t give Tyrus Thomas a qualifying offer. Now let’s get back to reality – those two guys will take the guaranteed money, the team will make a qualifying offer to Thomas and Charlotte will have no cap room this summer.
CLEVELAND – The Cleveland front office has worked very hard to try and collect players to put around LeBron James so that he won’t leave as a FA this summer. So, even if he doesn’t exercise his player option, I think the Cavs would be heavy favorites to re-sign him. But, in the worst possible scenario - if LeBron James leaves and the team renounces all their free agents, the Cavaliers could have more than MLE-level money to spend if they take some savings out of Delonte West’s partial guarantee. But they certainly wouldn’t have enough space to sign a new max-level star.
DALLAS – Do you think Dirk Nowitzki will turn down $21 million and leave town? Do you expect DeShawn Stevenson to give up more than $4.1 million in guaranteed money? Neither do I. My money’s on “they’ll be well above the cap”
DENVER – Anthony, Billups, Nene, Smith, Anderson, Lawson, Balkman, Afflalo – just those 8 players put the Nuggets over predicted cap amount, even before accounting for players like Martin (ETO). No cap space for Denver.
DETROIT – Their opportunity for having cap space was last summer, and they took that opportunity and spent all the cap room that they had available. Now they will have Hamilton, Prince, Gordon, Villaneuva, Maxiell, Wilcox, Stuckey and Daye on their roster in 2010-11, meaning that the Pistons will not have cap room.
GOLDEN STATE – With Ellis, Biedrins, Maggette, Turiaf, Curry, Wright and Randolph, the Warriors have committed themselves to over $42 million in salary. I also don’t see any way that Radmanovic (ETO) and Azubuike (PO) turn down a combined guaranteed $10.2 million. The Warriors don’t look to be paying any luxury tax in the Spring of 2011, but they also don’t look to have any cap room next summer.
HOUSTON had the potential to be under the cap this summer until the trade that brought them Kevin Martin and other players in exchange for Tracy McGrady, Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey. Now the only way that they could be significantly under the cap is if Yao Ming and Jared Jeffries both opt out and if the team decides not to give qualifying offers to Hilton Armstrong and Kyle Lowry. It’s not likely that all four of those happen.
INDIANA – They’ll be paying out nearly $62 million to Murphy, Granger, Dunleavy, Ford (PO), Foster, the two Joneses, Rush, Hibbert and to ex-Pacer Tinsley. That puts them well above the expected cap.
LA LAKERS - Even if Kobe Bryant opted out and left the Lakers high and dry (not that I expect that to happen), the combined salaries of Gasol, Odom, Bynum, Artest, Vujacic and Walton alone would keep the Lakers above the cap. I think it’s safe to say that the Lakers will not have cap space next summer.
MEMPHIS – There’s a general feeling that Memphis might once again have cap room to spend in July. The numbers don’t back this up. Randolph, (ex-Grizzly) Jaric, Thabeet, Mayo, Conley, Gasol, Haddadi, Arthur, Carroll and Young represent over $47 million in committed salary. Memphis will have their own 1st round draft pick along with the 1st round picks from Denver and the Lakers, which should add another $3.4 million or so in cap holds. That’s over $50 million in team salary even before accounting for Rudy Gay and Ronnie Brewer as free agents. That will leave them with no cap room this summer.
MILWAUKEE – After paying Redd, Bogut, Gadzuric, Salmons, Bell, Jennings, Ilyasova, Ukic and Meeks their $52 million, the Bucks won’t have any cap space. Sure, Redd could exercise his ETO, but does anyone really believe that he will? Sure, Salmons could exercise his ETO, but didn’t Chicago trade him because they believed he wouldn’t opt out? Plus even if Salmons does leave, they still won’t have more than MLE cap room.
NEW ORLEANS – Their concern in 2010-11 will not be trying to get under the cap but trying to get under the tax threshold, as Paul, Stojakovic, Okafor, West, Posey, Peterson, Songaila, Wright and Collison by themselves represent well over $70 million in salary. And, yes, I am saying that neither Stojakovic nor Songaila exercise their ETOs.
ORLANDO – Another team that committed themselves to long-term salary last summer, Orlando will also have as their main financial concern not trying to get under the cap but trying to get under the tax threshold. Lewis, Carter and Howard by themselves put the Magic over the cap – and they also have to pay Nelson, Gortat, Pietrus, Bass, Barnes, Anderson and the rest of their roster.
PHILADELPHIA – It should come as no surprise that the Sixers, who have committed themselves to paying the trio of Brand, Iguodala and Delembert a combined $41 million in 2010-11 do not figure to have cap space. Not when they also have to pay Williams, Young, Speights, Holiday and Smith – not to mention Kopono and Green if they don’t opt out.
PHOENIX – Nash, Richardson and Barbosa will count as a combined figure of nearly $32 million. Dragic, Clark, Lopez and Dudley will make nearly $8 million. Hill and Frye hold player options for another $5.4 million. And all of this doesn’t even account for Stoudemire – who could exercise his ETO, yes, but whose free agent cap hold would still keep the team above the cap. Even if he left outright, the team would not be guaranteed to have greater-than-MLE-level cap room. That’s why they’re in this list and not the one above.
PORTLAND – Roy has his maximum extension that starts in 2010-11. Aldridge, Miller, Oden, Webster, Bayless, Fernandez, Batum, Cunningham and Pendergraph represent about $36 million in salary. Add in more than $3.8 million in cap holds for their upcoming 1st round draft pick and former 1st round picks Claver, Freeland and Koponen and the Blazers look to be right about at the cap figure next July – even if free agent Camby is allowed to walk away. Plus, if Joel Przybilla decides not to exercise his ETO, that will put Portland even further above the cap (and even if he does opt out, he’ll have a significant free agent cap hold).
SAN ANTONIO – the Spurs, not surprisingly, are more concerned with trying to win another championship while they still have the services of Tim Duncan than they are about trying to get under the cap this summer. Duncan and Parker will make more than $32 million combined in 2010-11, Jefferson will count either as his $15 million salary or will have a huge cap hold as a free agent if he utilizes his ETO, Ginobli will have a cap hold of his own that should be well over $15 million – then add in the rest of the roster. Yeah, big surprise that the Spurs won’t be under the cap next summer.
TORONTO - the Raptors are another team that added a lot of long-term salary this past summer, guaranteeing them to be well above the cap next summer. Turkoglu, Calderon, Bargnani, Jack, Evans, Banks, DeRozen, and Bellinelli represent $46 million in salary. Then add in either Bosh’s $17 million salary or a huge cap hold if he chooses not to pick up his player option. And even if Bosh leaves, the amount of cap room that the Raptors probably will not be of the larger-than-MLE variety when you account for the other cap holds they will have.
UTAH – Kirilenko, Williams, Millsap, Okur, Miles, Koufos and Price themselves represent more than $56 million in committed salary. Safe to say that even if Boozer walks as a free agent, the Jazz will be above the cap this summer.
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As before, please let me know about anything that I got wrong so that I can update these predictions!
EDIT: I was asked by someone to put together possible scenarios where the Blazers could receive Chris Bosh in a sign-and-trade this coming July, with Aldridge as the principal piece going to Toronto. I won't say who made this request, but I will tell you that his first name starts with the fourth letter of the alphabet and rhymes with the word "save"....
Anyway, assuming that Bosh is given his maximum contract amount of $16,568,908 in 2010-11, here are some trades that would work from a salary-matching standpoint:
Aldridge + Przybilla for Bosh works even with Aldridge's BYC status. If the Blazers could re-sign Camby, a frontcourt combination of Oden, Camby and Bosh would certainly be interesting...
Aldridge + Miller + Webster for Bosh + Jack works as well. Is Portland ready to not only receive Jack back but probably hand him the starting PG duties?
Aldridge + Webster + Bayless + Pendergraph for Bosh also works. Can you say "Patty Mills gets his chance to be the backup PG?"
Finally, Aldridge + Camby (sign-and-trade) for Bosh works as long as Camby's new salary in 2010-11 was at least $7,340,000 and wasn't greater than $10,000,000.
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So much to process...
Thanks ST
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
DAMN
“Aldridge, Miller, Oden, Webster, Bayless, Fernandez, Batum, Cunningham and Pendergraph represent about $36 million in salary”
that’s a damn steal in my opinion. not another team has the bargain Portland is currently taking into 2010-2011!
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 24, 2010 12:28 AM PST up reply actions
no kidding.
KP’s strategy of drafting 4-year guys in the later part of the draft is paying real dividends. Pendergraph and Cunningham are prime examples of how a 4-year college player (from a high-level program) is about the equivalent of a second year pro. And about 1-3 million dollars cheaper.
Not to mention that by removing the top-3 earners (Roy, Aldridge, Przybilla) the total salary is something under 20 million (I’m too lazy to actually calculate it)
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Feb 24, 2010 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
Why do cap holds exist? If Joel walks, why should his forfeited salary hurt us?
hating advanced stats since 1980
Cap holds exist
to keep teams from circumventing the cap. If there were no cap holds for players with Bird Rights or Early Bird Rights (or the other exceptions that exist), teams could sign outside FA’s using oodles of cap space then re-sign their own FA’s using exceptions.
This way you cannot have your cake and eat it, too. If you want to keep rights on a FA, it costs you in the form of a cap hold.
I believe it helps keep parity in the league and is good for competitiveness in the NBA. It keeps high profile teams like the Lakers from doing whatever they want to.
BTW, if Joel walks, his cap hold disappears. It only counts against the cap as long as he is an un-renounced FA.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
by Storyteller on Feb 23, 2010 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
but
I want to have my cake and eat it too!
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 24, 2010 12:29 AM PST up reply actions
Luxury tax threshold
that’s the critical number for Portland, now. Will the Vulcans allow PA to exceed the LTT like he did with impunity 10 years ago? And how much will it take to extend Oden? Will the MLE be offered to Freeland, Blake, or some FA to be named later?
Based on KP’s comments earlier this week, I expect Portland to offer Camby a cap-exceeding contract in July. Then it will be up to Marcus to sift through his offers…I suspect the Blazers wuld prefer he take his time while they get their draft choices signed
OTOH, this might be a good year for KP to trade “down and out” of the first round…as if he’d ever do that to his scouting department
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I thought Freeland’s salary would be determined by where he was slotted when we drafted him, meaning we couldn’t sign him to the MLE.
2010-11 dream lineup: Oden/LMA/Batum/Roy/Dre; Okafor/Freeland/Cunningham/Webster/JB/Pendy/Mills.
by The Cactus Leaguer on Feb 23, 2010 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
The CBA says
that if a 1st round pick doesn’t sign for 3 years, the team drafting him is then no longer bound to the rookie scale. They can use cap space (if they have any) or another exception (such as the MLE) to sign him to a deal larger than the rookie scale. Freeland is such a player.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
by Storyteller on Feb 23, 2010 10:28 PM PST up reply actions
Nice additional info - I had not heard that before
"The one thing we said about this team right away is they mirror what their coach's personality is and that's to be hard-nosed and play extremely hard and play with intensity." - Alvin Gentry
we didn't use the biannual exception this year, did we?
I don’t know what Freeland makes in Spain, but would it be possible to sign him to that and use the MLE on someone else?
Could be. He stands to make about €900k each year on a 5 year deal ($1.2 million). The BAE would be more attractive than his standard rookie scale deal for a #30 pick. Problem is the BAE can only be used to sign a player to a two-year deal, and I think the section of the CBA Storyteller refers to says that the player offered more than his rookie scale must be offered at least a 3 year guaranteed contract.
How much is the BAE?
Enough to sign Blake?
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
not the way he's playing
it’s going to take more than 2 mil/year, even assuming Blake would prefer to play in PDX
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I realize you can't speak for all the others who want to bring Blake back, but I'll ask anyway;
Why do you want to bring him back? What would his role be? How much pt would he get?
I like Blake as a person. He IS a hard worker who gives his all. He does have some talents that can help his team. But what he brings to the court is duplicated with a few other players we have and he is clearly a downgrade in most all areas to Miller. So what purpose would it serve to bring him back? Not trying to be combative and I do not “hate” Blake like I’ve been accused of in the past. I just want to know what the scoop is here.
Glad you asked
1. My sig is somewhat facetious, if it costs the MLE to get Blake, it’s too much, IMO.
2. I’d like to move to the future, put the ball and the starting job in Jerryd’s hands next year, and go with it, or if the braintrust has given up on Jerryd, try to pull a blockbuster deal for a big-time PG. Either way, Miller’s contract is an expiring one starting this summer, Andre can still play, and that makes him a very attractive trade asset. Since he’s not our future at PG, I’d like to move forward and use that asset.
3. I’d like to see a three man rotation at guard with Roy, starting PG (Bayless or the guy we trade for), and backup guard (Bayless or Rudy, presuming that if we trade for a PG, one of those guys will be part of the deal).
4. That means you need a fourth guard who is willing to play a role, not expensive, can fit well into the system, doesn’t need a lot of minutes to be effective, but can step up into a more major role in the case of injuries. It is hard for me to think of a better fourth guard for this team than Steve Blake.
In other words, I’d like to trade Miller rather than let age eat away his value, look towards the future, and find a role-playing fourth guard.
If we get a different coach/system, I would view bringing Blake back differently. If I didn’t believe Bayless is the real future at PG, and that by the end of this summer he’ll be ready to take that role, I would also view it differently.
I expect that if Andre is still around next year, he’ll be holding Jerryd back, and also won’t take kindly to a backup role if Jerryd takes his job. Blake would take that role, even if Rudy gets some of those backup PG minutes.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Interesting perspective!
Thanks for making your case without getting personal. I am up in the air about Bayless. Miller is a good PG IMO who should have a bit more control over the offense. I know that Brandon is the star here, and rightfully so, but this team is not going to become the best it can be with him handling the ball quite as much as he did last year. He needs to adjust to having a competent PG who can get the ball to people. Doesn’t mean his shot attempts need to decrease, only the way he gets them. And there would still be times when BRoy would initiate the offense or we would run ISO plays for him, just not so often as to be predictable!
My problem with bringing Blake back while Nate is still here is due to Nate’s reliance on Blake. Seems every time something goes wrong (meaning Miller or Bayless makes an error), Nate goes back to Blake like clockwork. He is “comfortable” with him.
Your point about Miller has merit. At his age, he IS going to start downhill at some point. Problem is, it hasn’t happened yet. Last year was one of his best seasons and January was a VERY good month for him. There is plenty to be critical of with Miller, but the fact is he can flat play the PG position. There’s no reason he can’t be the PG we need next season and possibly even in 2012 if he hasn’t slipped much by then. I also believe he would be more accepting of a smaller role, even a backup role, if Bayless earns the job and Miller’s skills drop off some. His problem with his role earlier in this season were based on the fact that he earned the job and should have had it! I think most people agreed that he was the rightful starter. It was that “comfort” that Nate had with Blake that gave him the nod, not the fact that he earned the job.(he didn’t)
Miller can play PG, without a doubt
He isn’t, however, the perfect fit with Brandon. The fit should improve with time, but his inability to hit the 3 means it will never be great.
He also isn’t a very good defender, though he’s smart enough to be in the right place a lot of the time, which goes a long way.
Our window is only marginally open next year, it’s the year after that when we should really hit our stride. Starting Miller next year means we have a transition the year we really don’t want it.
I think the “Nate over-reliance on Blake” thing is a Bedge fact, meaning it is widely accepted here but not as rooted in reality as most people seem to think. I guarantee Nate signed off on trading him and Outlaw for Camby. No way KP makes a mid-season deal without Nate’s agreement. So Nate isn’t so “over-reliant” that he didn’t agree to trading him, which means Nate thinks Andre and Jerryd are ready to fill the role.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Blake was getting over 27 minutes a game with the Blazers to Miller's 30!
Those are the facts. Reconcile them how you choose. And for the first month or two, Blake was actually getting MORE minutes than Miller. I doubt there are more than a handful of coaches in the league that would have done that. And that’s being generous.
What does that tell us?
Obviously, Blake’s minutes were trending down. His last 10 games, he averaged 21 mpg, even with Roy out injured.
The first ten games, he averaged 28 mpg. Andre also averaged 28 mpg in those first ten games.
Andre always starts slow. Every year. He came into camp out of shape, like he always does. Add to that, he wasn’t yet in synch with our players.
In his first ten games, while playing 28 mpg, he shot 35 for 90, under 40%. Blake shot poorly too, but it isn’t as if Andre was really playing well enough yet to completely supplant the incumbent. That’s not over-reliance, that’s letting a guy keep his job until someone actually takes it from him.
Now, I think it took too long for Nate to give Andre the job, and I think it took too long for Bayless to get minutes, and for Rudy to get minutes, too. But it isn’t “over-reliance”, it is the fact that a guy has performed well for you for two years, and Nate is slow to give up on him.
But now that Brandon is back, I think that in games like last night, where Jerryd and Rudy were performing well, Steve would have been sitting.
Fact: Nate wants to win more than he wants to play Steve Blake. That he values Steve’s contributions more highly than you or I might doesn’t change the fact that he’s willing to sit him down. In Steve’s last ten games here, even with Brandon out, even with Jerryd struggling with inconsistency and Rudy struggling to perform, he had four games where he played less than 20 minutes.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
So Nate isn’t so "over-reliant" that he didn’t agree to trading him, which means Nate thinks Andre and Jerryd are ready to fill the role.
During the podcast, Ben said that Nate wasn’t nearly as excited about getting Camby as KP and his cohorts were (seller’s regret from Sarge?) Of course, Miller is ready to fill the PG role (for awhile) but the jury is still out on Bayless and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the “Blake boomerang” this July…much to the constipation of Bedgers, everywhere
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Sorry to contradict
But Brandon’s best stretch of the season came while fully healthy and starting alongside Miller and Martell. I see why on the surface Miller’s inability to hit the 3 is a problem but I seriously doubt a team would ever trade away a better PG than him… they’re just too important
I think Andre and Brandon
are arguably the best back court in the league, when playing well together.
That doesn’t mean they are a perfect fit together, it just means that they are both very, very good.
Why would you trade away a PG like Andre? 1) He’s getting old, and this team is constructed to contend over the long haul. 2) If you are convinced that his presence is hindering the development of Jerryd — addition by subtraction, just like we traded Zach to make room for LMA. 3) Because he is still a high quality PG, combined with his expiring contract, meaning he should have a lot of value on the trade market, and we could get a very good player in return.
You don’t trade Andre Miller to “get rid of him”. You trade him because you have to give up something to get something, generally, and Andre is an asset that arguably could have higher value for someone else than he would have for us, due to our timeline, his age, and the fact that his game is not a perfect fit for our superstar or our coach’s philosophy.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
risk-averse
Andre has no turnovers in the last 2 games, that’s something the Blazer coaches value very highly
So unless they have another solid A/TO PG on the roster (Blake, etc) I’d be very surprised if “moving Miller to make room for Bayless” is ever a topic of conversation at Blazer’s HQ
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I'd have no problem with that role for Steve
but we both know that if Nate is the coach then Blake will play more than that. Unless he’s hurt.
I suspect that there’s mutual interest for KP/Nate to bring Blake back to Portland next fall. What will that mean for the long-term future of the Blazers and Rudy/Jerryd? There’s the rub
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
But what he brings to the court is duplicated with a few other players we have
This is a surface observation. What Blake brings that Bayless and Rudy don’t (yet) is experience and the ability to distribute the ball in a half-court offense. This is one of those things that you won’t notice, unless you see a less-experienced PG struggling to master it. The best descriptors for Steve are all the boring ones (“steady”, “glue guy”, risk averse", “good A/TO ratio”) Don’t get me wrong, I see his flaws. The dribbling in, then backing out of the paint. The frustrating possessions when he’s forced dribble around and take a contested shot against the 24 sec clock, etc. How much of these failures are Blake’s fault, and how much are his teammates failing to execute correctly is open to debate. If you ask Steve, he will “own” all of the bad decisions and take the blame for the turnovers and all of these missed opportunities.
Is he a starting PG on a NBA finals team? Not likely. Would he be a solid reserve guard on a championship team? It’s not hard to see him in that role. Does Nate know the difference and would he play #2 for the appropriate amount of minutes? This is where the rubber hits the road
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I completely agree with your entire last paragraph!
I’ve been saying that Blake would be an excellent backup PG. One of the better ones in the league, probably. Problem with that lies with Nate and his use of Blake. And if you want to block Bayless or not. There simply aren’t enough minutes for Miller, Roy, Bayless, Rudy, and Blake in one backcourt. If Bayless is moved and Blake is brought back as the backup PG AND NATE USES HIM AS SUCH, I have no problem with bringing him back. I wouldn’t bet on that being the case though.
I am not sure one can overestimate Miller's importance
It seemed to me that during the 4th quarter in Toronto that Miller wad handling the ball as much, if not more, than Roy. Let Dre go to work in the low post, then look for an high percentage shot in the paint or kick it to the open guy when the double comes. This seemed to be a good method for closing the game out. Brandon should still be the main guy down the stretch and get his shots, but I think the ball should flow through Andre ad much as Brandon. With Blake in the game the ball tends to go solely through Roy, making it too easy to key in on one guy.
Blake has hit some big shots, and I like as much as the next guy. I wad never convinced of his distribution abilities, however, I seem to remember him having a tough tome getting GO the ball in the low post. I think Rudy could fill Blake’s role; he can shoot, has good court vision, and complements Roy well.
Miller hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, but I am sure KP is looking for the next starting PG for this team, and I doubt he will bring Blake back. I am not convinced JB is that guy, but he still deserves a chance. Developing a consistent outside shot I’d the main thing, but he needs to keep his head up more. Dre like his shots, but he always seems to have his head up, looking for something easy, be it for himself or a teammate.
I say ride Andre till he slows down, all the while developing a good backup plan.
by lil'stink on Feb 26, 2010 8:06 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
jscot - next season's BAE is $2.08 million
I agree with two4larue that it won’t be enough to get Blake.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Agreed
Unless Steve really, really wants to come back for family reasons, etc. Money may be tight out there, but someone will give him $3 million, anyway, probably more.
So in all probability, we won’t be both A) bringing Blake back and B) bringing Freeland over. What that means is that a trade involving both Joel and Andre is much less likely, unless it is bringing back a PG.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
I think you're overestimating Blake's value in this point guard market
there are SO MANY point guards right now. Most teams DO have 2. Blake isn’t worth 2 million in this market, and I doubt he gets it.
we'll see
Denver doesn’t “need” another PG but they may offer him 2.2mil just to keep him away from KP, etc (Billups isn’t getting any younger, and Karl likes Steve)
it will also be interesting to see what kind of offer Travis gets
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
1. Isn’t the veterans minimum 1.5 m? If true, then 2m isn’t much of a stretch;
2. I think that solid backup PGs are a valuable commodity, moreso than backup wing players. It seems like every time you look up, you see some team struggling to find a decent backup PG. So I think he has some value, not a ton, but some.
2010-11 dream lineup: Oden/LMA/Batum/Roy/Dre; Okafor/Freeland/Cunningham/Webster/JB/Pendy/Mills.
by The Cactus Leaguer on Feb 28, 2010 5:10 PM PST up reply actions
we were under the cap
no exceptions
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Feb 25, 2010 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
Until July 1st, the start of next season's finances
Then Portland will be assigned a new BAE and MLE
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
yep
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Feb 27, 2010 8:01 PM PST up reply actions
Well....
I expected KP to trade out of the 1st round last year. So much for that prediction…..
Re-signing Camby could indeed put the Blazers near the LT threshold, so that’ll have to be considered. But with team revenue increasing over the last couple of years (and ticket prices already announced to go up next year), it appears that management might be considering going over the line once again. I don’t think we’ll see the days of $100 million payrolls again, though….
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
by Storyteller on Feb 23, 2010 10:37 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t think we’ll see the days of $100 million payrolls again, though….
Well no…more’s the pity.
The Vulcans have made a lot of noise about “breaking even” and this (plus Paul’s health) makes me concerned about future payroll spending. But then I remind myself that Allen signed off on that 5/50 mil contract proposal to Hedo last July and so I tell myself to relax: the ol’ Sugar Daddy is just looking for an excuse to overspend, again.
And KP loves him those late first round draft choices that he uses to stash Euros, so I’m not holding my breath re: his decision to flip his #1 draft choice. I would think that NBA teams with more-spendthrift owners will start treating their (mid-round) #1 draft choices like hand grenades and their (non-guaranteed salary) 2nd round draft choices like gold
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
C'mon Storyteller....
In 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, the cap won’t have crept up enough with inflation to see $100m payrolls?
Awesome job on the post, but your long-term crystal ball needs some adjustment!
Oh wow
You deserve the undying love of all of us for this post. I wish I could give you more, but undying love is my best offer.
Is it just me, or does New York’s situation look scary good for this summer? Do you think they do anything this summer to free up the extra $2 million to make the double max contract push?
BBS
by BringBackSabonis on Feb 23, 2010 9:03 PM PST reply actions
It's being rumored today
that they’ll try buying out Curry for a million or two less than his option amount. That would give them the ‘flex’ room to be able to actually offer 2 max contracts.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
by Storyteller on Feb 23, 2010 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
Melo in '11 is another rumor
Assuming Curry doesn’t take a buyout. But with raises to whoever they do sign this summer, I’m not sure I see how they would have that much cap space left over from letting Curry walk
I just don't think that NY can resist
getting Stoudamire (A Dantoni specialty) And Lebron/Wade to headline that team. Dantoni would be drooling after practice.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
maybe
but if they dont sign anyone they are gonna look like morons
settle for spending max money on amare and joe johnson and sucking for the next 10 years
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2010 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
Excellent work as always
Much more informative than the I think it was on truehoop article that only listed player salaries under contract while ignoring cap holds and draft picks.
Skadoosh
Which I've never quite understood
In the real world, come July 1st, cap holds and draft picks count. Why not account for them in projections? Yes, there’s some guessing when it comes to draft order, but we can make educated guesses that shine some light.
Anyway, I’ve always tried to be as thorough as possible in these types of projections……I’m glad some others seem to think that they’re informative/helpful….
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
by Storyteller on Feb 23, 2010 10:32 PM PST up reply actions
You remain the one and only source for much of this info - thanks once again
Much appreciation for the huge amount of time and effort you must invest to cultivate sources and compile the facts.
"The one thing we said about this team right away is they mirror what their coach's personality is and that's to be hard-nosed and play extremely hard and play with intensity." - Alvin Gentry
Does anybody think Pryz will not pick up his player option?
I saw a list of prospective free agents and he was on it. That makes no sense to me. Coming off a season ending injury, teams are not lining up to give you multi-year deals. I believe his salary is 9 mil. That’s a pre-recession contract. How could he possibly walk away from that?
by oLLiE Boombayay on Feb 23, 2010 11:16 PM PST reply actions
Joel's due 7,405,300
I suspect the only way he opts out is if he thinks he could get a 2 year deal for 14+ mil or a 3 year deal for 21+ mil
not much chance of that while he’s on the mend. But no player/agent in the NBA wants their contract to expire leading into the possible work-stoppage season of 2011. I think there will be mutual interest by KP to resign JP to an extension regardless of what happens with Camby. The meltdown against Utah only re-emphasized how important rebounding and toughess is to this roster.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Based on Nortskroll's analysis of ruptured patellar tendons
Extending joel would be a TERRIBLE idea unless he comes back for a full, healthy season
The Blazers will have a decent read on Joel's rehab before July
Przy said he’s 6 weeks ahead of schedule and (unless he suffers a setback) will begin running in April
KP may do the “smart” thing and let JP’s contract play itself out, or he could do the “culture” thing and extend Joel. I wouldn’t be surprised, either way
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think all the big free agents stay.
Meaning Bosh, Lebron, and Wade staying with their respective teams. Joe Johnson also staying with the Hawks.
I see Lee, Boozer, Amare, and Gay to be the big movers.
Amare or Boozer will be in Chicago or Miami. I think Miami gets first choice here. Gay will probably sign a big contract with the Clippers (It just seems inevitable). Lee will go to the highest bidder, most likely New Jersey.
Brendan Haywood going to the Thunder would be a great catch for them. But I see the Mavs keeping Haywood.
"I'm at the thingamajig talking the yakety-yak" - Kenny Smith
New York can bid higher for Lee than anyone
and if they don’t get Bosh, LeBron, or Wade, I don’t think they’ll want to see Lee walk.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Only if they don't renounce his rights
Now if they’re smart, they won’t renounce his rights (or anyone else’s) until they have the deal in place to get at least one FA. But once they do renounce him, they can’t pay him any more than any other team.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
by Storyteller on Feb 26, 2010 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
But blzrfan said he didn’t see any big free agents moving, except Amare/Boozer to Chicago/Miami, with Gay going to the Clips.
If that kind of stuff happens, NY will probably retain Lee.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
If I were a max-contract NBA star (ha!) ...
I would stay so far away from the Knicks. By systematically eliminating all players who make money, they’re down to almost no talent. Keep in mind they’ve now lost two future draft picks. They have no way to build. The way I see it (and I live here), even Lebron + Bosh + Gallinari + no other talent = a .500 team.
If I were one of those top free agents, I would be looking hard at the Clippers, the Nets and maybe Chicago. The Nets look bad now but they have two all-star-level players, a couple of good role players, and a very high draft pick. The future owner is rich and the move to Brooklyn will make the team wildly popular. Lebron + Wall + Harris + Lopez + Lee + CDR is an amazing core.
Which could make the Houston trade quite rosy from the Houston perspective
Houston has the rights to swap 2011 1st round and has the Knicks 2012 1st round pick outright.
by PhilippeinBoston on Feb 24, 2010 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
ummmmmm no
LeBron by himself, even w/o Bosh, can make any team into a 48 win team, minimum. Lets say next season the Nets replace Devin Harris with LeBron (i know it wont happen, but hypothetically). Nets in 2010-2011 would be a 50+ win team. Easy
Agreed about the Knicks, I don't understand the Jeffries trade at all
But the Nets don’t move to Brooklyn until 2012 assuming the CBA negotiations don’t hold that up, so a FA signing with the “Brooklyn” Nets strikes me as kind of a pipe dream. And the Cliipers dont do enough Mitzvahs to attract top FAs. There’s some 2nd tier FAs that are gonna get PAIIIIIIID this offseason. As bad as the LMA contract looks, I could see the Knicks offering him that much this offseason after striking out on the big names
Lebron has been surrounded by nobodies and carried the Cavs to the finals
Lebron + Bosh + Gallinari + no other talent = probably better than the Cavs are now, which is scary
Holding out for Hedo
OKC
OKC looks to be sitting pretty. A young, cheap team that is playing superbly and will have a lot of cap space.
But will they do anything with their cap space?
Personally, I think they’ll use it on a short-term deal or two so as not to interfere with the franchise’s financial ability to extend Durant, Green and Westbrook in years to come.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
they look like us last year
once those big contracts come in, then they are going to have to adjust..its easy to be under the cap while your stars are on their rookie contract.. ask KP
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2010 2:12 PM PST up reply actions
“Is it just me, or does New York’s situation look scary good for this summer?”
Not to me. Consider this fact: I will have more cap space this summer than the Knicks. That doesn’t mean I will be making the playoffs. In fact I can give you a 100% guarantee that I won’t.
its not about what they are doing!!!!
if indeed our ability to make the playoffs is determined by the play of another team then we have a long way to go toward being a contender for anything. i love all the talk about cap space, free agency and who may or may not come over but…. what does that mean for the blazers in practical terms. a big trade? going after someone who is REALLY going to put us over the top; what!?! who are we going to really go after? who may really want to come here and play? it seems to me (and i’m not knocking it) that guys are playing and moving for the money as much as they are to win a championship. who could we really go after? who would we trade and package to get one or two significant pieces? i think that we need to do whatever is necessary to get someone who will have major impact right away or get healthy and rock what we got!
by socalblzrfan on Feb 24, 2010 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
Agree but for one point
The guys at the top of this list – Wade, James and Bosh as well as Melo are consumed with winning championships. MJ would not be on top of the all-time list with only 2 rings. If two can team it will be Bosh and LeBron or Bosh and Wade. The money is much bigger in endorsements with rings. So the money follows the rings as well.
"The one thing we said about this team right away is they mirror what their coach's personality is and that's to be hard-nosed and play extremely hard and play with intensity." - Alvin Gentry
CP3
July 1, CP3 is no longer a base year player. Blazers need to send 14mm of salary to get him. That would be Pryz, Miller, Webster, Rudy, and all the Euros and picks NO wants ongoing. Gives them Collison and Rudy in backcourt, a young 3, and another Center. Maybe we can broker a deal with someone else to take either Stoyakovic or Okafor off their hands.
Go KP.
by shallwemaui on Feb 24, 2010 10:24 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
OOOOHHH!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
but seriously, unless we send Roy we are not getting Paul, and probably not even then.
He just had his meniscus removed
Gets him back on the court faster, but bad if not disastrous for his long-term health
Things that I myself see as most interesting from this information:
1) NY is not guaranteed – at this moment – to have enough cap room to offer 2 max deals. They’d need the new cap to be set to at least $54.62 million to be able to offer max deals to two of James, Wade and Bosh. Now, the cap could be set high. The team could get Curry to agree to a buyout that would cut another million or two off their books. They could trade Douglas for a draft pick in June. Things could happen that would allow them to be able to make such an offer. In fact, I think that Walsh will do pretty much anything to be able to do so. My point, though, is that there is no guarantee today that the team won’t have to make at least one more transaction to be able to do so.
2) I think Miami is in the driver’s seat among the teams with cap space. The Nets can offer max room but can’t offer the opportunity to play alongside a superstar. The Knicks can only make such an offer if they can get two guys to agree to come. But the Heat already have Wade in the fold. And if they lose Wade, then they are in the same exact boat as the Knicks (the ability to sign two max deals) plus they have Florida’s favorable tax situation on their side.
3) What do the Thunder do? Yes, they will have cap room, but the upcoming extensions for Durant, Green and Westbrook (among others) are looming. Signing a free agent to a large, long-term deal might leave one of those young players out of the loop in a couple of years. Might they simply stick with what they have and perhaps sign a player (or players) to 1 or 2 year contracts? Maybe….
4) Sacramento might need one more transaction to give them enough room to make a max level offer. They are so close right now, I can’t see Petrie stand pat if he’s only going to get replies of “Sorry, your offer is $500,000 less than what the Knicks are offering”….
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
Forgot one
5) The Clippers might also need one more transaction to clear a bit more room. See #4….
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
you realize you're playing 3-dimensional chess
while the rest of us (with a few exceptions) are tunnel-vision on Portland?
This offseason should be interesting. But handicapping the free agent derby is like picking a candidate during the new Hampshire primary when there’s no incumbent
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Re: New Hampshire - you can't just bet on the prettiest face?
(add – and a moneybags backer)
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
you must be a Palin fan
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Hard to be a fan of any politician these days
But Ronald Regan accomplished the same effect so pretty faces (or at least once pretty faces) works for any party.
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
can you imagine Abe Lincoln getting elected today?
he had that that wart with hair growing out of it…I guess plastic surgery is always an option
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
He would definately need to lose the hat!
On the other hand he would not need the teleprompter.
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
funny thing about hats
they were very much a part of the American male’s required “outfit” until JFK came along
Kennedy put most of the men’s hat manufacturers out of business. The Beatles probably contributed a lot to that, as well
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
How about the Bulls?
It seems to me that the Bulls are in good position to pull one of Bosh/Amare/Boozer to team up with Rose.
by danielfarrell on Feb 25, 2010 2:36 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks a million for this. Blows all the other previews out of the water.
All I have to say is that Miami wins. Chicago comes in second. If I am LeBron or Bosh, those are the ones I am most interested in if I want to leave.
I could see Chicago getting a good big man (Boozer, Amar’e, David Lee) and a mid-level type guy too.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
cap room
It would be interesting to add up all the salaries of players becoming free agents this summer (not just max guys but lower salary guys also) and compare that to the total cap space of those teams that have it, to see if it will be a buyer’s or seller’s market for free agents.
One assumption in that would be that in a neutral market, the average free agent should make the same salary on his new contract as on his expiring contract. In other words, young up and coming players are going to get bigger salaries but old players are going to get smaller ones, and those should about cancel each other, except that the statistical base is pretty small and so an assumption like that could be quite a bit off simply based on what happens with one or two max guys.
The other unknown is how many of the free agents will wind up resigning with their old team and thus not shrinking the pot of available cap space unless their own team happens to have cap space, which I don’t think is too prevalent a situation with teams that have high salary guys that will be free agents this summer.
Anyway it will be fascinating to see how it plays out, not only for the Lebrons but also the smaller fish like Trout. Should provide some good entertainment when there are no games to watch.
I was thinking the same thing about buyer's vs seller's market
Another thing that could make it more of a buyer’s market is a sign-and-trade to a team that doesn’t use their cap space.
By my rough calculations, it will be a good market for the free agents, assuming LeBron and/or Wade re-up with their current teams. You only have so many FA’s who are worth more than the MLE (I get 10-12):
1. LeBron
2. Wade
3. Bosh
4. Amare
5. Lee
6. Gay
7. Boozer
8. Johnson
10. Ginobli
11. Shaq??
12. Haywood??
Compare that to the number of teams with sizeable cap space (per storyteller):
1. Miami (enough cap space to give 2 large contracts)
2. NY (ditto)
3. Nets (ditto)
4. Bulls
5. Clippers
6. OKC
7. Sacto
8. Wizards
9. Wolves
So teams can give out around 12 large contracts this summer, compared to 10-12 players who should get large contracts. But as soon as some of the players re-sign or sign&trade, all of a sudden you’ll have a bunch of excess cap space, with a shrinking number of deserving players.
The other thing that could happen is that more players than at first expected could exercise their ETOs (especially considering the possible lockout the following season). For example, maybe even a player like Joel could opt out in hopes of cash in one last time while you have “perfect storm” of lots of cap space + future lockout.
Whatever happens, it will be very interesting.
buyer's sellers market
Even though I can’t quantify it, it just occurred to me there is one thing you can conclude.
If a lot of the free agents sign with their old teams, then there will be a whole lot of cap space chasing after players and the Blakes and Outlaws of the world may get the royal treatment. And vice versa of course.
one prediction
I think one thing we can predict is that not all teams that will be able to offer max deals will be able to land a LeBron, Bosh, Stoudamire, etc, and will wind up having to settle for picking up a grab bag of role players.
Joel
“I suspect the only way he opts out is if he thinks he could get a 2 year deal for 14+ mil or a 3 year deal for 21+ mil”
Yes, Joel’s injury means probably not much drama on his contract situation. Considering he’s settled in Portland and his injury means his option is probably the best deal he could get, I would think he exercises it. And Blazer organization should be happy with that as well, he should be healthy next year and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he winds up being the workhorse in the middle once again.
“In other words, I’d like to trade Miller rather than let age eat away his value, look towards the future, and find a role-playing fourth guard”
God knows the Blazers roster represents a lot of “looking toward the future” but I think you need to be careful not taking your eye off the present either. Miller is a rock-solid starting PG and should be at least for one more year, if not two. Blazers have plenty of bargaining chips, I just don’t see the merit in trading away the guy who has done more to keep this team afloat this year than Miller has. Trade away Miller and the team has a lot more risk of going back to the lottery next year, if things don’t gel.
It is very murky exactly what is the “post-Miller” plan for PG of the future. My feeling is, don’t sweat it. Once Miller runs out of gas, see where we stand and if we need another PG then go out and find one. In the meantime, anchor down the position with Miller and try to get a better handle on whether Bayless or Mills can take over.
Depends on two things
1) The assessment of Bayless. If KP/Nate think Jerryd is the answer, but is a year away, keep Miller and don’t worry about it, Bayless will be ready when Miller starts to fade out.
2) What players become available. If a premier PG of the right age becomes available, you go after him, and including Miller makes all the sense in the world in that case.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
But what if
1) They don’t think Jerryd is the answer
and
2) There isn’t another premium PG available
Then what do you do? Because I think both are strong possibilities.
Start banging down the doors
and offering a high price to get a premium PG. Failing that, go into the season with Miller and Jerryd, and trust to luck to get one next year.
As of last summer, at least, KP was still very high on Jerryd. Bayless hasn’t taken the league by storm this year (except for a couple of games), but he’s had real progress, and he’s still very young.
If someone was very high on Bayless last summer, there has been nothing to happen this year to change that. Jerryd this year >> Jerryd last year.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
I'm all in....
Nobody knows the future, which is why we do everything above…
1) Continue to let Dre run this team, and hope he leads us into the playoffs.
2) Continue to evaluate Jerryd, and determine if he is a good fit with Brandon, a 1 or a 2, or trade bait.
3) Continue to evaluate Patty Mills
4) Continue evaluating potential free agents, and continue discussing trades.
Patty Mills was supposed to go to Europe
in the original plan. For at least 2-3 years.
Even if he becomes our starting PG (which I don’t expect), it’s a long way down the road.
I don’t get the Mills love. He is so far away from being an NBA rotation player right now. Everyone should be able to see the potential, to see what he might possibly become some day, but it is all potential. He isn’t there yet, if he ever will be. In all likelihood, his ceiling is an exciting change of pace PG off the bench who is always a threat to get hot and blow you away. That’s a nice thing to have, but you don’t build your plans around it.
You keep your options open with him, hope he becomes that, work with him, and if you are lucky, he becomes even more, a guy who can dish and score like Tiny Archibald. If that happens, you’ve been lucky, and you adjust accordingly. But you don’t build any of your plans around that. The chances of Mills being an NBA starter are less than 2%. There’s a reason no one in the league took him in the first 50 picks.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Knicks question for Storyteller...
Much has been made about the Knicks cap space this summer, lets assume their best case scenario and are able to lure 2 of the big fish. That would leave
about $3.8M (the cap holds) on 6 players to fill out their roster.
What will they do to fill out their roster?
That seems to be a major flaw in the knicks plans. Considering those cap holds are for players with 0 years experience, they’ll have to fill out their roster with second rounders and d-leaguers. Even with Lebron and Wade and their few current holdovers, they will still have major holes. I have a hard time seeing that as a championship roster.
I think this a big flaw as well.
A team of Douglas, Curry, Gallinari, and Chandler is not appealing at all. Adding Lebron and Bosh to the mix doesn’t make the Knicks instant title contenders. Their bench would be awful without any frontline depth. They would also not have any viable PG or SG on the team.
I think Donnie Walsh is going to have a big egg on his face.
"I'm at the thingamajig talking the yakety-yak" - Kenny Smith
Minimum salary contracts
The Knicks would technically be over the cap (with 6 of the cap holds still in place), so they could use the Minimum Salary Player Exception to fill out their roster. They don’t have to be rookie contracts (ie, the size of the cap holds), but they would have to be minimum contracts.
I believe they have not only their own 2nd round pick but also the Clippers’ 2nd rounder. That’s two high 2nd round picks that will be on minimum contracts. Then add 4-6 veteran FAs with minimum salary contracts, and that’s probably how the Knicks would look to complete their roster.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
And that would easily be enough to get them into the playoffs
and a top six seed, at least, with the ability to beat anyone in a seven game series.
And the next year, they would get their MLE and BAE (assuming those survive the CBA negotiations), and could bring in another couple of players.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Add that minimum contracts might be enough to attract talented veterans searching for a ring and NY exposure
"Their length," he said. "Aldridge is a tough matchup for us. Roy's a very talented ball player, an All-Star player. Miller is just an incredibly savvy point guard with what he's able to do out there on the floor. You throw in their shooters who have size and are able to see over things. They understand where they are as a ball club." - Kurt Rambis
Miller
After reading some points of view, I should amend my opinion: Don’t trade Miller unless that is part of a trade that lands the Blazers their PG of the future.
That would not create any void in the role of “PG of the present” because anyone who would be suitable to bring in as the PG of the future would also be suitable to be the PG of the present.
Barring that, having Miller buys the Blazers time to sort out what to do long term at PG.
One reason I would advocate AGAINST getting Blake back is that he could also serve that role- buy the Blazers time to sort out what to do long term at PG. However, I don’t want the Blazers blowing off till Blake retires deciding what they are going to do about PG of the future. I’d rather they do it in “Miller time”. Once they figure it out they can have an ice cold Widmer’s.
I think we're roughly on the same page
The only way you trade Miller this summer is A) if you think Jerryd is ready to be the PG of the future now or B) you are trading Andre to get the PG of the future. If A) is true, bringing back Blake as a fourth guard could make a lot of sense. If B) is true, whether you try to bring Steve back depends on who is left after the trade(s) that brought us the PG.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Isn't next year
the first year that we are out from under Darius Miles’ contract? That’s still on the books this year, right?
Correct
But it gets ‘replaced’ by the extensions for Roy and Aldridge, keeping the team above the cap.
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
I'm not qualified to audit the salary info
but you made a text error in the below sentence, and that is on my level…
“As before, please let me about anything that I got wrong so that I can update these predictions!”
Absolutely fantastic post.
Hello Storyteller!
Ok, here goes.
Wait for it.
…. …. ….
Trades.
What do we get for Greg Oden Martell Webster, and our odd pg out.. at the break next season.
thinking back to “ghost from draft day past” article in some slam mag that I seen plastered here some time ago.
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out, burns out farms, and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Head Czar of Amerika <--- Mortimer said so so there!!!
Hmmmm....
OK, Barney faith, my answer is….
Nothing. Because Oden won’t be traded.
Are you trying to set up a Chris Paul or Deron Williams trade?
"It's Our Time":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O99POVJfglY
by Storyteller on Feb 25, 2010 6:28 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
I'm a big LMA fan and, but
I’d do Aldridge + Przybilla for Bosh in a heartbeat as long as we can resign camby…otherwise, not so much.
#52. Get well soon.
by Eat Politicians on Feb 25, 2010 11:39 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Ditto. LMA is too perimeter/soft for me.
I mean wtf happened to his blocks this year? Shouldn’t they have gone UP with increased playing time and being the only real shot blocker we had for months?
Bosh is statistically LMA HARDCORE mode, better inside/rebounding/shotblocker and insane FT for a 7footer as well, 80% career.
He just lookds scary….is his nickname The Predator?
OSU '06
Trade for Gerald Wallace!!
I have a feeling
That after the big 3 free agents are signed, a lot of sub-par players are going to be over paid and make the LA contract seem not that bad. I bet NY gives Boozer a max deal after Wade, LeBron, and Bosh all sign with their own teams.
I am hands down the greatest Blazers fan on Blazersedge.
I bet you're wrong!!!!
I bet Miami gives Boozer a max deal to play with Wade, and NY gives Amare a max deal.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
Maybe
I can see Bosh leaving on a sign and trade, otherwise I don’t think the big 3 are going anywhere.
I am hands down the greatest Blazers fan on Blazersedge.
I agree on the big 3
Bosh has to like Toronto’s progress this year, and since they can give him more money than anyone, he stays home — unless he gets an offer from a team that already is a contender and that will do a S&T to get him.
Wade stays in Miami, they bring in Boozer or Amare to help, and LeBron stays in Cleveland because they already brought in help, and they have a good chance to win it all.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
I know
but I’m betting TiH and telling him he’s wrong, so I don’t care.
I’d put it pretty likely that he does opt out, though. First, there are lots of teams with cap space available, so he’s likely to get a nice contract (perhaps from Phoenix, perhaps elsewhere). Second, no one wants to be going into next summer without a contract, when the size of max contracts may get slashed, etc. The guys who can lock in a good deal this summer will want to do so. Third, he runs the risk of injury next year hitting him. Fourth, he runs the risk of few teams having cap space next summer, even if the rules don’t change drastically.
I won’t be surprised if he’s back in Phoenix, especially if they do well in the playoffs, but if so, in all probability it will be with a nice new contract that might pay him less next year than he would have got, but will give him longer term security.
I think most agents will be thinking it is dangerous to go into next summer without a contract.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#10 #52 -- #5 #7 & #88 are back!
its does
but brandon and lamarcus big ones kick in
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
Well done as usual Storyteller.
I appreciate all the little stuff you do with your notes as well (like who has trade kickers & all that).
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16
I might be the only one but I don't really
like the idea of swapping LMA and change for Bosh. Mainly because of Oden. Greg is still the key guy for us, if he reaches his potential then how do we get shots for Roy, Bosh and Oden? Who’s team would it be? Roy or Bosh? We had enough trouble fitting Oden into our 2-man offense at the start of the season, what would happen when we have to fit Bosh and Oden next season?
You want to talk about Bosh’s shotblocking? Chris career average is only 1.20, LMA is .99. 1.20 blks does not make him a legitimate shotblocker, his other stats are good but we would be taking a huge risk in terms of team chemistry. The guys already lost Outlaw so how would they take it? I’d rather we got Devin Harris instead. A Miller + Webster for Harris deal might be good enough as long as the Nets want to get rid of Harris’ contract. Course the Nets would have to win the Lottery and pick Wall for that to happen.
I remember last year..
there were lots of rumors about LA and Rudy to Toronto for Bosh.. I would love to see Chris Bosh play in a Blazers uniform
"Good, Better, Best, never let it rest until your good is your better and your better is your best." Tim Duncan
I fear if the Raptors go the sign&trade road, the Lakers’ offer of Bynum and filler is more attractive to them. Bynum + Bargnani is a decent defensive frontcourt, LaMarcus + Bargnani would be awful.
Bargnani and LaMarcus would be a horrible front court. Their offense would have to be completely inverted like Indi’s. The bigs would be 39% from the three strip and their guards would have to work in the paint. I can just see Bargnani swinging it from the top of the key out to wide open LMA for the three.
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