Sched Ahead 2/22/10, Week Seventeen

Lousy way to end the week.  Fortunately, some of our rivals are also stumbling, so we are still in decent position, but we've left ourselves some work to do on the road.

SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  "Cream Puff" Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  "Jawbreaker" Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  "Banana Peel" Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  "Rocky Road".

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 ("Cream Puff" Home), a majority of Cat 2 ("Jawbreaker" Home) and Cat 3 ("Banana Peel" Road), and win some in Cat 4 ("Rocky Road").  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

The jscot Stupid Sched Projections methodology is explained in this post.  Since they are stupid projections, it doesn't bear repeating here.

Last week's update

Yesterday's daily update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

Chicago and Miami are back above .500, so their games are recategorized again, Cat 1s becoming Cat 2, Cat 3s becoming Cat 4.  Milwaukee is just below .500. 

YESTERDAY'S GAMES

1. Utah @ Portland.  Ouch.  If we would just step in front of Boozer on FTs, he wouldn't have a career high in rebounds, and we would have a win.  Did anyone else find yourself hoping they would miss the first FT and make the second so we wouldn't give up a rebound?
2. Boston @ Denver.  Denver is 4-0 against the top 3 Eastern teams this year.  Billups went for 26, and J.R. Smith was horrible for 3 quarters but had 16 in the 4th.  Melo and Chauncey were 18-19 on FTs, while the rest of the Nuggets were 7-21 (Birdman was 1-7), but it was good enough, in part because Boston only attempted 24 FTs and made only 13.
3. S.A. @ Detroit.  Tony Parker was out with his hip problem, aggravated against Philly, and the Spurs take their second bad loss in a row, at Detroit, after being undefeated against losing teams until the loss at Philadelphia on Friday.  The Spurs used "Bash a Ben", fouling Wallace repeatedly, to come back from a big deficit at the end of the fourth, as he went 4-10 on FTs, while Manu got 11 points at the other end in the last 2 1/2 minutes.  Detroit did something probably unprecedented, starting OT behind, after Rip Hamilton got called fo a T between the end of the fourth and the start of OT, but it didn't matter in the end.
4. Memphis @ N.J.  The Nets went out to a big lead, but it was not to be, as Memphis outscored them by 21 in the second half.  Lopez had 22 in the first half, 4 in the second.  Gay had 29, Mayo 24, and the Grizzlies keep themselves over .500 and alive in the West.
5. Houston @ N.O.  David West had 27 points and made the big plays in the clutch, and the Hornets survived the battle of two teams struggling to stay afloat in the playoff hunt.  Darren Collison has been on a tear, and got 26 and 9 assists.  New Orleans is 5-5 since Paul went out, but it's about to get tough.  Houston was only 7-14 on FTs.  Kevin Martin scored 13 in 28 minutes.  Ariza was 2-10, 1-7 on 3s.
6. OKC @ Minnesota.  Kevin Durant had only 22 points with 2 1/2 minutes left, and his streak of 25 point games (and OKC's streak of wins) was in danger, but he scored ten more before the finish, and the "Blunder" get their 9th straight.  Westbrook had a triple double with 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 14 assists.  Darko made an appearance -- he played 19 minutes, scored 8, and had 8 rebounds for Minnesota.  OKC made 22-23 on FTs.
7. Sacramento @ Phoenix.  The Suns rolled, with their second straight strong defensive effort.  Amare claims he is starting to enjoy defense -- we always knew you'd like it if you ever tried it, Amare, it's like green eggs and ham.  It was a six point game going into the fourth, but Phoenix scored 7 straight, five by Channing Frye, and Sacramento never got close again.  Phoenix had six men in double figures, Amare had 14 rebounds, and Nash had 17 assists.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (1-2).  A lost opportunity to gain ground on some rivals, as we won a Cat 1 at home against the Clips but then lost two Cat 2s, against Boston and Utah.  That makes four straight losses in Category Two (home games against winning teams). 

Dallas (3-1) played 4 in five nights, dropping the first in a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at OKC, but then cranking up with a Cat 2 home win over Phoenix (both teams BtoB), a Cat 4 win at Orlando, and another Cat 2 home win over Miami (both teams BtoB).    

Denver (2-1) started great with a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" win at Cleveland, slipped up the next night on a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Washington, but finished strong with a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" at home over Boston.   

Houston (1-3).  A disastrous week for the team best positioned to chase us down coming out of the ASB.  They opened with a Cat 2 home loss to Utah, got it back with a nice Cat 3 win at Milwaukee, but then took a major blow with a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" loss at home to Indiana, when the Pacers were on a BtoB.  The next night, they fell again, this time at New Orleans.  The Rockets are down to one game over .500.

L.A.  (1-1) played only two games, both at home, winning a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" over Golden State, then losing a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" to Boston.

Memphis (2-2) lost two more home games, taking them to four straight, but managed to grab two on the road to stay alive.  They dropped Cat 2s against Phoenix and Miami (in double OT), but got a good Cat 4 BtoB at Toronto and a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at N.J. to avoid dropping out of the race entirely.  This is a big week for them, they have some winnable games and could get back in the chase with a nice run.

N.O. (2-1) had a decent week for a team missing their superstar, splitting two Cat 2 home "Jawbreakers" where the opponent was on a BtoB, losing to Utah and beating Houston, and in between picking up a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" against Indiana. 

The OKC Blunder (3-0) have now won nine straight.  They opened by winning the kind of game they were losing earlier this year, a tough Cat 2 at home against Dallas, then won back to back Cat 3 "Banana Peels" at NY and Minnesota.  The margin between success and failure is small, the NY game went into overtime and the T-Wolves game was decided by two points, but they keep winning, and look like a definite top six team in the West.

Phoenix (3-1).  A good week for the Suns, they opened with a nice Cat 4 "Rocky Road" win at Memphis, then lost another at Dallas (both teams BtoB).  Then, they went home and won twice, a Cat 2 over Atlanta and a Cat 1 over Sacramento (Kings on a BtoB). 

S.A. (1-2) had a disastrous week.  They've been horrible against good teams and unbeaten against losing teams, but played three Cat 3 "Banana Peels" on the road this week against losing teams, and only won one of them, against Indiana, while losing to the 76ers and Pistons.  The rest of the way they only play 7 against losing teams, and 21 against winning teams -- it isn't looking very good right now for the Spurs.

Utah (4-0) had a great week, winning BtoB "Rocky Road" Cat 4s at Houston and New Orleans, a Cat 3 at Golden State, and then having another "Rocky Road" served up to them on a silver platter in Portland.   

Helped themselves:  Dallas, N.O, OKC, Phoenix, Utah.

Treading water: Denver, Memphis.  

Hurt themselves:  Portland, Houston, L.A., S.A.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

We're still the only team with a winning record in this category.  Assuming we make the playoffs, we know we can beat tough teams on the road.  We're about middle of the pack in terms of remaining games in this toughest category.  Notice that San Antonio's schedule is not favorable.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

San Antonio took a big hit in this category this week.  Denver also took a loss in this category, at Washington.  We have two Cat 3s this week.   

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Our record in Cat 2 is pretty poor this year, but we have few difficult home games left.  Lots of teams have more home games left than us, but in general those extra home games are against stiff competition.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

Houston took a bad loss in this category this week.  If you want to make the playoffs, you need to beat losing teams when they come to your home court.

All Home Games

If we're going to keep up pressure on our rivals, we'll have to do it on the road -- we only have 9 home games left.  We lead the Western contenders in home losses, as well.  I hope we are ready for this road trip.

All Away Games

We're still at .500, with only four teams better than that.  Though we have fewer home games remaining, it isn't that we have that many more road games than our rivals -- we've just played more games.  By the end of this road trip, our home/road schedule will look balanced, so if we can do a job on the trip, we'll be in good position.   

All Games Against Winning Teams

We have a significant advantage over most of our rivals in terms of remaining games against winning teams.  Look for S.A. (especially), N.O., OKC, Memphis, and Denver to find it a little tougher as they face a lot of winning teams to close out the season.   

All Games Against Losing Teams

We're near the upper end in terms of remaining games against losing teams.  We may play more on the road than some of our rivals, but our competition won't be as strong as theirs the rest of the way. 

Back to Back Games Remaining

The real reason we lost to both Boston and Utah?  Because they weren't back to back.  If they were, it is highly probable we'd have lost the first and won the second.  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

Minor differences.  Notably, though, the team with the worst remaining schedule here is San Antonio, who have the worst remaining schedule in terms of difficulty of opposition, one of the worst in terms of home/away, and are struggling.  You read it here -- the Spurs are not likely to finish higher than 8th seed, and might well miss the playoffs.   

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

Some help for Dallas, Denver, and Houston from playing "tired opponents" games. 

The Projections

Here is the vital stuff:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but if we want to talk about stupid, you are actually reading this.

End of year rankings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa.

1. L.A.  60.0 wins (down from 60.9).   
2. Utah.  54.5 wins (up from 50.9 in 3rd).
3. Denver.  53.7 wins (up from 53.2, down from 2nd).
4. Dallas.  51.3 wins (up from 50.2).
5. Phoenix.  50.2 wins (up from 49.2).  
6. OKC.  49.4 wins (up from 47.0).
7. Portland.  45.7 wins (down from 46.4, up from 8th).
8. S.A.  44.4 wins (down from 46.7 in 7th).
9. N.O.  43.0 wins (up from 42.9 in 10th).
10. Houston.  42.9 wins (down from 44.7 in 9th).
11. Memphis.  41.3 wins (down from 41.7).

There's a definite gap opening now, with five teams all playing well and battling for the 2-6 seeds.  Then, come two teams that seem to be spending half their time trying to drop back (Portland and San Antonio), only to be hindered from doing so by the mediocrity (at best) of the teams behind them.  As bizarre as it may seem, this 1-2 week actually strengthened our hold on a playoff spot and improved our chances of getting a #7 seed.  If we could rebound missed FTs, we'd have really been in a strong position.

The only team below #6 with a winning record was New Orleans, who went 2-1 in three home games.  That's decent (better than we did), but not exactly world-beating.  They do look like staying in the hunt with CP3 out, but I'll be dubious until I see how they do in their four games this week.

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  Are we road warriors, or just collapsing?  This week starts with a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at NJ, and if we expect this to be easy, we will lose.  They led Memphis by 18, they just beat Charlotte, and they'll come at us hard.  Then, it's a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" BtoB at Toronto, another Cat 4 at Chicago (who is playing very well right now), and then a Cat 3 at Minnesota (both teams BtoB, they play at OKC the night before). 
2. Dallas.  The Mavs open with a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" at home against Indiana (ask Houston how easy that will be), then a Cat 2 at home against the L@kers (who will be on a BtoB).  Then, they travel to Atlanta for a Cat 4, and close out with a Cat 2 at home against New Orleans.    
3. Denver.  Three games, a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Golden State, a BtoB Cat 1 at home against Detroit, then a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at LA -- L@kers will be looking for some payback.   
4. Houston.  A testing schedule, with Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" home games against Orlando and San Antonio, then a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Utah (both teams BtoB).  
5. L.A.  Back to back Cat4s at Memphis and Dallas, then home for a Cat 1 against Philly and a Cat 2 against Denver. 
6. Memphis.  Their last home win (before 4 straight home losses) was against the L@kers, and they get to try again, a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker".  Then, they have a BtoB Cat 3 at Washington, another Cat 2 at home against Charlotte, and another Cat 3 at NY (both teams BtoB).  They've really dropped off the pace, but three wins this week would put them right back in the conversation, and it's not hard to see them getting that. 
7. N.O.  A very difficult week for the Hornets.  They start with a Cat 4 at Cleveland, then a BtoB Cat 3 at Milwaukee, who has been playing well.  Then home for a tough Cat 2 against Orlando, and then on the road again for a Cat 4 at Dallas.  This could be the week their challenge dies -- even a 1-3 week wouldn't be horrible, and 0-4 is certainly possible. 
8. The "Blunder".  Have these guys forgotten how to lose, or something?  Maybe this week.  They host Phoenix (Cat 2), then play a BtoB Cat 4 at S.A.  Then, they are home for two games, a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" against Minnesota and a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" against Toronto.
9. Phoenix.  The Suns play a Cat 4 at OKC in a matchup of hot teams, then go home for a Cat 1 against Philly (both teams BtoB).  Then, it's another Cat 1 against the Clips before they travel to San Antonio for a Cat 4 against the Spurs. 
10. S.A.  A chance to get their affairs in order, with a Cat 2 at home against OKC ("Blunder" on a BtoB), a Cat 4 at Houston (who is struggling), and a Cat 2 back home against Phoenix.  Two wins would solidify their position, three wins would effectively be saying, "Someone else may miss the playoffs, but not us."  Only one win, and they'll need to set their affairs in order because they will be on life-support.
11. Utah.  I don't actually want to talk about these guys the rest of the year, but at least I'm glad they have to pay lots of luxury tax, and that Boozer will be gone next year.  They host Atlanta (Cat 2, both teams BtoB), Charlotte (Cat 2), play at Sacramento (Cat 3), and then go back home for another Cat 2 against Houston (both teams BtoB).  Here's hoping the lose the first three and then beat Houston (yes, I know we never want Utah to win, but we want Houston to win even less right now). 

Four games this week.  N.J. we should get, if we play well, instead of like we played against Boston or in the last 1 1/2 quarters against Utah.  Minnesota, we should get, but it might not be easy, as OKC found yesterday.  The other two games, Toronto and Chicago, are both likely to be difficult, but I like our chances of getting one of them, especially since Brandon began to look like himself again a little bit against Utah.

Two wins this week would be a decent week, and might well be enough to strengthen our position for a playoff spot.  Three would keep up our challenge for a seven seed (or better).  The key is to make sure there is no mistake about the first win.  These guys have worked much too hard to stay in this race to let it slip away by losing to the Nets, but they'd better come out and take that game from the beginning, and never let it go.

Post ASB, we had a three game homestand and a five game road trip.  Given the standings, a 5-3 record over the eight games was probably what was needed to maintain our position.  Since then, we've stumbled, but also caught some breaks as some other teams have as well, and a 3-2 road trip, making it 4-4 for the 8 games, would still keep us in good position.  But it is certainly possible to go 3-1 this week, which would be a great way to finish the month, and sets up the last game of the trip in Memphis nicely, with perhaps an opportunity to finally bury at least one of the teams chasing us.