Dirty Jobs: GM’ing at the Trade Deadline
by JMoon on Feb 11, 2010 7:05 PM PST
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Recently Phil Jackson was asked if he had any interest in a front office job. He replied, "No, I don’t want to have to constantly lie." If that accurately summarizes the down side of the job, this time of year must be particularly tough on a GM’s conscience. Trade rumors float about constantly, and most of them are half-truths at best. When I hear this stuff I try to keep the following in mind.
GM's do not call reporters in the midst of a heated trade negotiation just because they feel the public has a right to know. In most cases these same reporters have harshly criticized them at some point, and they're not just looking to do favors for the press. Thus, all leaks in negotiations are done out of self-interest. Most leaks don't give you an accurate description of what's been discussed. What they do give you is some idea of who leaked and what they're looking for. Just keep an eye on which party is made out to look like they have the asset that everyone is pursuing. Case in point.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-thomasbulls021010&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
If this article is to be believed, Portland offered either Blake or Outlaw along with several 2nd round picks. The writer indicates Portland will have to improve upon the offer to be taken seriously. That a clear price has been set of expiring contracts and a first round pick. Leaving aside the issue of whether Pritchard's offer was fair value in exchange, who do you think leaked this story, and why would they do it?
All Chicago has done here via Woj, is announce that the bidding for Tyrus is in session and claim that they have received an offer of an expiring contract plus second rounders. They are in effect asking other teams to beat this offer.
Thomas is averaging 8.8 pts per game and 6.3 rebounds in 23 minutes. He recently had a major blow-up with his coach and has long been underachieving and a bit of a head case. The notion that teams around the league are salivating for him is to me, ridiculous. They'll take him if they can get him cheap and Chicago is done with him. I don't know why anyone would give up an equal expiring contract that Chicago can use to replace him in the free agent market, and a 1st round pick, which is what they wasted on him in 2006. I think Chicago is blowing a considerable amount of smoke here in the interest of giving the appearance of exaggerated demand.
Teams don't just blow smoke for opposing GM's. They also do it for their fan base. Particular when they have to clear contracts to sign a free agent, rebuild or both. Here's Kate Fagan's excellent piece in the Philadelphia Inquirer:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/20100207_Inside_the_Sixers___Sense_and_insensibility.html
All in all, I think its best just to read between the lines with any of these trade rumors. Enjoy the desperate dissembling, but don't take it too seriously.
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If Steve and a couple of second rounders get Thomas
I’d pull the trigger.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
So, including draft-day trades...
Chicago trades Tyrus Thomas and LMA for Steve Blake, Victor Khryapa, and two second-rounders.
Nice.
CKTK: A music blog. We write about what we want to write about.
"All I ask of you is one thing: please don’t be cynical. I hate cynicism. For the record, it’s my least favorite quality, and it doesn’t lead anywhere. Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they would get. But, if you work hard and you’re kind, I’m telling you, amazing things will happen."
-Conan O'Brien
I think KP should just walk around the All Star Game with a sign that says
What will you give for an expiring contract?
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
Plus for Tom Waits reference
I love that song, ironically about ‘going out of business sale’….maybe Tom had insight into GM’s role…..
What's the point
when 20+ other GMs will be wearing the same sign?
The GM who can dump the biggest EC and acquire quality players will win the “deadline derby”. Daryl Morey is on the pole.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Regarding Morey and misdirection
I still think he’s posturing with the Haywood Butler talks. If he can move McGrady’s contract plus something else (not Brooks) to Philly for Iggy/Dalembert I think the Rockets are ready to challenge the Lakers in the west.
+1 good article
" It was as if the Suns hatched a fiendish plot to ruin John Wayne's movie career by casting him as a cowboy." - Dave 2/10/2010
Interesting
It is clear that rumors and misdirection are the way of doing business this time of year. Knowing this, I wonder if the Blazers are doing a bit of the same. I read an article one day about KP not wanting to trade anybody, and then an article the next day where BRoy says no trades are needed – we are good standing pat.
Does anyone else have a hunch that this is a bit of misdirection, and something may be going down…….
Quick said that Juwan Howard was the other player who told KP to stand pat
Take that for what it’s worth. I think KP would like to make a trade, but only if it’s a “slap-worthy” deal
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Howard likes his playing time
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
As indicated, misdirection is abundant right now. Two ways to look at it...
1) KP wisely loves this TEAM and We’ll all gut it out. Unless someone wants to give us a Player for an expiring we hope to bring back.
2) Complete smoke and mirrors, he’s already lined it up but doesn’t want to show his hand.
Honestly, I’m fine either way. I love this team. It will be devistating in June, God hopefully not May, when we’re done this year, but what a fun group of guys to watch every few nights~! Or our management tries in earnest to do whats best for the team, I’ll stand behind them and hope it works out.
p.s. Have an open conversation with Rudy/Outlaw/Blake, give them the appreciation and respect they deserve, before the call is made.
by Chief Play Good Play Hard on Feb 12, 2010 12:17 AM PST up reply actions
I agree
I’m always curious about the interplay of what a GM or player wants and what they say. It’s got to be difficult, for sure, to walk the line of being honest and saying what is best for the team.
Then the entire arena froze as a primal, bloodthirsty shriek echoed through the seats and rafters. Beer vendors dropped their glasses, fans cowered, whistles fell out of refs' mouths, Coach Nate fell backwards into his seat, Monty Williams grew hair, watched it turn grey, and then sobbed as it fell out again all in an instant, and the Suns' blue and orange road uniforms suddenly included a conspicuous amount of yellow. B-Rex had arrived. And he was angry.
i agree with the artificially raising the stock by leaking things to the press
baseball agent scott boris does that for his clients all the time
Awesomeness (ô'səm-nes)
1. n. Something that inspires awe
2. n. Nicolas Batum
Excellent post, rec
My guess is that the offer from Portland is also not being reported completely accurately. Why would they do that?
1) If their goal is to get other teams to increase their bid, a slight exaggeration of Portland’s bid will serve their purposes well.
2) It limits the offers they will receive if they are known for leaking offers precisely.
GMs don’t want to offer a player for trade and then have him read in the newspaper that he was offered, so if a team becomes known for letting offers be leaked, other GMs will be more hesitant to talk to them. Therefore, leaks will likely be at least somewhat different from actual proposals. That way, they can deny to the rival GM that they leaked it (even though everyone knows they did) because “it isn’t even what you offered”. And that way, the rival GM can say to his players, “No, we didn’t make that offer, I don’t know where that is coming from.”
So, the rumor suggests that Chicago could choose between our ECs. In all probability, the actual offer, if there was one, didn’t give them the choice, or it was for an EC plus only one second round pick. Or we didn’t make an offer at all, we contacted them and asked what they wanted, and they said Blake or Outlaw plus a first rounder, and KP said, “That isn’t happening,” so they said they might take two second rounders, and he said, “We might be willing to consider that, we’ll think about it.” And they hung up, and decided to leak it as an “offer” to set a baseline.
The probability is that something somewhat similar to this was discussed. The likelihood that an actual offer is being reported here in precise terms is pretty low.
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Nice post
After reading what you wrote about Thomas, I’m pretty sure this deal won’t go down because the Blazers already have an inconsistent underachieving headcase who recently had a blowup with the head coach.
That was true
Once I was with her during May Days and Inner Circle played. At one point a bunch of tall black guys walked by and she said, “There is our basketball team” and later some shorter but fit black guys walked by and she said, “And there goes our football team”.
by tominhawaii on Feb 12, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Injuries
are hurting any chances of making a rational trade. From a business point of view the team should allowed to get healthy, demonstrate that the injuries have been overcome and then use a late season to increase the blazer player’s worth. Then after the CBA is negotiated the blazers will be in the driver’s seat when it comes to dealing for players. It’s not the summer of free agency that is important, it’s what’s after the CBA. I expect players like LeBron, Wade, etc to put in a renegotiation clause of their contract after one or two years so that teams won’t get windfalls because of recovery from a poor economy.
I think the most likely thing to go down
is some kind of deal with Chicago, and I won’t be surprised if it includes both Outlaw and Blake, and spare parts, and gets us both Thomas and Hinrich.
please no more hinrich talk
Its pointless, dumb, annoying, etc…
hinrich wont be in portland just like he hasnt been after the last 3 trade deadlines that he was going to be here. I would rather have goran dragic anyway
Flip cam FTW
but wouldn't it be fun if KP actually traded for Kirk
just to play with us?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
no
unless you mean kirk is going to drive to your house and pick you up then drive to my house and pick me up then drive to the rose garden and we a going to play horse, then maybe but still leaning to no
Flip cam FTW
I still think that a Roy-Miller-Hinrich guard rotaton would make some sense
but that could only exist in a parallel universe without Bayless and Rudy, and I’m not sure how KP could travel from here to there, seeing how much he likes #4 and #5
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
It would be interesting if actually has the guts to
make a trade. I don’t think he has by the way. He keeps saying how he isn’t going to make a trade in mid-season. We have had a huge hole at the Center spot for the last couple months and he hasen’t done anything about it so why should he now? For the record I believe that we should make a deal now or else we won’t make the Playoffs. Plus I don’t like seeing Blake keep getting more playing time than Bayless. KP is letting other Western Conference teams poach Eastern Conference teams by not getting involved. Inefact is his helping our rivals improve but not us. No I don’t think that Pritchard has done enough since drafting Roy and LMA. Last summer was a joke, KP should never have wasted a draft pick on Claver. He will never be more than a backup SF/PF and not a very good one at that. He let so many players slip away like Blair, Casspi, Beaubois, Jerebko and Gibson. That does not even mention the guys that we could have had if we traded up. Face it the Spurs are the early winners when it comes to draft day steals.
So to sum up, KP has no guts to make a trade and he has blown it since the 06’ draft.
I could not disagree more.
Drafting after ‘06:
’07: Oden; Fernandez. Sure, right now, durant looks like the better pick, but that’s been bad luck. Oden was the consensus #1, with almost no-one saying draft Durant first (apologies to Ben). Fernandez has been great for his draft spot.
‘08: Bayless, Batum. Bayless has not met (high) expectations, but he hasn’t been a bust either. You are at least somewhat on Team Bayless, since you want him to have more minutes than Blake. Batum has exceeded his draft spot handily, and the sky is the limit.
‘09: Claver, Inferno, Pendergraph. Why was Claver a throwaway? You may have me here: I haven’t followed his progress in Europe this year. But he was coming off an injury, and wasn’t expected to play here for a while. He is (was?) considered to be a great prospect. Let me know if that’s no longer the case.
Dante and Pendy have been pleasant surprises for me. I expect much less out of the 31st and 33rd picks of the draft. And, no exploding knees!
Trades:
it’s very difficult to evaluate trades, because no one really knows what’s available. But I don’t think it’s easy for the blazers to trade players. Talent and salaries have to match. Problem is, Rudy and Batum make too little money, so they only work if packaged with someone making too much money. Blazers have no one on the roster matching that description, with the possible exception of LA.
Last year we had LaFrentz, and if you believe that Charlotte and Washington would have given us Wallace or Butler for Raef and Rudy, then you can blame KP a little for that. But where’s your evidence that those trades were available?
I don’t think KP is the second coming—or Daryl Morey or RC Buford for that matter—but he’s done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt.
Not for me! For a GM, you are only as good as your last deal.
One bad deal and the pressure is on,but KP is smart. He must believe that as long as he does NOT make a deal, then he won’t suffer that fate. Its true that we don’t know what kind of deals were being offered to us that KP declined so how do we know if he’s made the right decision on them?
For me, as a commentor you are only as good as your last comment
Better watch yourself. :)
#7 #10 #25 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
Where it's his first or last ...
… there is little track record indicating good.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Batum was a geat draft choice, and Cunningham looks solid
I’ve said enough about Rudy and Claver elsewhere, I think they were more BPA picks than good “fits” with the style of play that Nate prefers and Roy and Oden will excel at (grind-it-out)
I think most of my angst with KP arose with his “let the cake bake” comments when he was holding RLEC, 12 months ago. There’s no way to know exactly what deals were “out there” but we know certain players were eventually traded (Carter, Jefferson, Salmons, etc) and we also heard (later) that Philly was interested in moving Andre Miller at the deadline.
My focus last February was on Hinrich because Blake’s shoulder was hurt and (even when healthy) I wasn’t sure that Steve was a playoff-caliber starting PG. That’s water under the bridge, now. You’re correct, the team needs another big man and KP does have some ECs and young talent that he could package together to acquire one, but (as we’ve learned from the past) Kevin is very reluctant to part with his players, unless the deal is too good to be true. Since the other GMs all know that he needs a center, it’s unlikely that he’s going to get this “perfect” offer, but it’s much more likely he’ll get it on Thursday than at any time in the last 2-3 months.
In other words…lighten up, Francis. Things could be worse, Paul Allen could’ve chose to stick with John Nash as GM
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Looking back at the said deals you mentioned ...
… why would we have wanted Pritchard to make any of those? Do you really see the Blazers being a better team with Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson or John Salmons? As for Miller, we got him anyway and probably at a reduced price. How is it possibly a mistake to have not trade Raef’s contract for a guy we still signed as an off-season FA?
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
I mentioned this earlier
the advantage is: if a trade had been done last February, Miller would’ve been on the Blazer’s roster during the second half of last season and the Rockets series…assuming Portland won the same amount of games and actually faced Hoston in this alternate reality that included Andre
So, instead of Brandon and ‘Dre playing “getting to know you” during the first 1/2 of the season, the Blazers could’ve “skipped ahead” to a Roy-Miller starting backcourt from day 1
I know you don’t like contemplating these “hypothetical” what-if scenarios, but it’s how I’m wired. You’re always free to ignore them
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The stuff I don't particularly care for is who some people seem to automatically
assume that deals are there to be made. We saw a lot of criticism over KP’s failure to make use of Raef’s expiring deal last year. It was (and still is) my opinion that we really had little real knowleadge availabel to us to evaluate whether any decent opportunities did in fact exist. Since then we’ve heard about possible deals involving the guys you mentioned above. And what strikes me the most about them is how unexciting any of them are. In fact I’d say they all suck, with the possible exception of Miller. And since he ended up a Blazer anyway, I can’t fault KP over not dealing for him last Feb.
However you make a good point about the potential advantage of having Andre for the series against Houston. He might have been the difference. I would point out that from February on last season the Blazers really hit their stride and played perhaps the best basketball of any team in the league. We can only speculate whether or nor a mid-season trade for Miller would have positively or negatively impacted team chemistry or performance down the stretch. (Of course if it had slightly and Portland ended up being a lower seed, we may have done better in the playoffs by not having to face Houston.)
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
As rough as the Dre/Brandon hookup has been
that would have been a disaster last year, would have deep-sixed our playoff seeding, and we’d have been torched in the playoffs, probably swept.
A classic example of why mid-season trades can be dangerous. These guys needed some time to learn to play together.
Give Blake the MLE in 2010!
Farewell to #2 and #25, good luck to you!
#7 #10 #52 -- #5 & #88 are back!
I'm sure you've nailed it.
No way Pritchard was to worry about losing his job if he never makes another deal or a trade. It’s his for life, unless of course he screws up by making said deal and it turns out bad.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
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