Bill Simmons loves to pile on the Blazers when we are down
" What if Portland had taken Kevin Durant over Greg Oden?
Here's what we knew about Oden heading into the 2007 Draft: owned Ewing-like potential as a rebounder and shotblocker … struggled with a broken wrist during his freshman year at Ohio State … only played one "Wow!" game (the '07 NCAA Championship: 25 points, 12 rebounds, 4 blocks in defeat against Florida's Joakim Noah and Al Horford) … his right leg was one inch longer than his left leg (a red flag for potential knee/feet/back issues) … openly admitted that he didn't love basketball and once wanted to become a dentist … frightened everyone in Portland with a jittery pre-draft workout … looked and walked like a thirty-six-year-old man.
Meanwhile, Durant lived and breathed basketball, became a national phenomenon during his only Texas season, crushed his Portland workout and had no conceivable offensive ceiling. Throw in Portland's tortured history with fragile centers and, as the years pass, it's becoming harder to fathom that the Blazers willingly decided, "Screw the sure thing, let's take the big guy with uneven legs who played one great college game." But that's what they did. Because we love revising history over time, owner Paul Allen and then-general manager Kevin Pritchard have been protected by the "Come on, anyone would have taken Oden, you always take a franchise center, it's not their fault he keeps getting injured" defense. That presumes Oden was considered a sure thing -- like Kareem, Ewing or Hakeem -- and ignores those six months everyone spent wondering about him before the 2007 Draft. Like me, Boston GM Danny Ainge liked Durant as the top pick for one reason: Durant was the sure thing, not Oden. If you followed Durant in college (and Ainge fell head over heels for him, as did I), you knew about his work ethic, leadership, character and scoring DNA. I thought Durant was a genetic freak: like Tracy McGrady crossed with Plastic Man, someone God created to make baskets and get to the line. Oden left you hoping he stayed healthy, hoping basketball would become more important to him, hoping his spotty college year wasn't an aberration, hoping he developed a low-post game and a killer instinct … for a sure thing, you sure were doing a lot of hoping. How was that any different than the Bowie/Jordan dilemma 23 years earlier? When Durant became the youngest scoring champ ever and placed second in the 2010 MVP balloting -- as Oden recovered from his second season-ending knee injury, no less -- Portland's decision barreled into the "What If" chapter six years earlier than expected.
So what if the Blazers picked Durant instead of Oden? They become the fledgling Western Conference juggernaut of the 2010s (not Oklahoma City); Portland becomes a legitimate 2010 destination for LeBron; any successfully unconventional decision would be called "a Pritchard"; and everyone in Portland would be so perpetually happy that it would never rain there again. Instead, we have to start bracing for the 2029 or 2030 Draft, when Portland wins another lottery and finds itself stressing between Sure Thing Potential Superstar Scorer X over Possibly Fragile Franchise Center X as everyone else wonders, "Wait a second, we're doing this again?" One of these generations, the Blazers will get it right. "
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TheOdenator52
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He’s still on this? Dude, come up with something new…
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by Andrew Tolliver on Dec 6, 2010 2:09 PM PST reply actions 9 recs
This is just an excerpt from his book 2 years ago.
Has nothing to do with what he’s writing today.
In fact, if you look at what he’s written today, he’s been pretty sympathetic with the Blazers organization…but you know still brings up the whole Durant thing.
But in the end he was right..or it looks like it so far so I guess this is his “eff you” to the world since everybody thought he was crazy during that draft.
by Fila429 on Dec 6, 2010 2:13 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Oh that changes things. I was about to get annoyed.
Yeah he has been sympathetic towards us lately.
#20
by dario argento on Dec 6, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
[i think this is actually a new excerpt for the paperback version, but its still a book excerpt written a while ago, not a new column]
Blow it up.
Yeah, I'm almost positive it's an excerpt
added in the 2nd edition that his upcoming mini-tour is promoting, and given that it doesn’t mention Oden’s 2nd MF surgery and only talks about the developments of the 2010 season, it was most definitely written awhile ago.
#52
Yeah, but he posted the excerpt yesterday (or in the last few days).
Regardless of when it was originally published, that means something.
Namely, he likes to kick people in the teeth when they’re down. And on top of that, spout completely false bullshit… in this case, saying that most teams would have gone with Durant over Oden in 2007.
It’s like someone walking up to you and saying ‘Hey, look, the sky is green right now!’
‘No, it’s not’
‘Yeah it is, prove that it’s not.’
What do you do at that point? Other than just walk away.
Posted this Excerpt on his main page though today
Besides they aren’t winning the title this year anyway so by default they avoid the only other definition of "waste" that matters.
—Dave
Espn posted it
he doesn’t control every facet of the ESPN.com site, get real. this is an old excerpt promoted to the front page because of it’s recent relevance with oden falling to another season-ending injury and simmons doing a book tour.
get mad about it if you want but believing it was written recently by simmons to provoke portland fans is silly and provincial.
You really think he has no say over what's being posted?
At the VERY least, they told him what they were going to be publishing, and he ok-ed it.
Curious about where he think it's revisionist.
Because I was there (fan at the time reading all i could)… and EVERYONE was pretty much on the side of taking Oden with a VERY few exceptions.
"The game was delayed for over 15 minutes with 5:07 left in the second quarter after France's Nicolas Batum, who plays for the Portland Trail Blazers, dunked and twisted the rim. Volunteers and officials scrambled to put a new rim on the basket and reattach a net."
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/olybb/news/story?id=5509394
Not me.
Not Simmons. Not David Thorpe. Not Hollinger. Not Dave Berri. Not Jonathan Givony.
by howlingfantods on Dec 6, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions
well, that's probative obviously
but I was just listing off some folks off the top of my head who wasn’t part of the “EVERYONE” on the side of taking Oden. Especially when they include the most accurate bball scout/writer working for espn (thorpe), the best college/euro scouting site (givony from draftexpress), the two most influential stats guys, plus the most prominent columnist at ESPN, that represents something pretty different than the “EVERYONE” ratbastird claims.
by howlingfantods on Dec 6, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
In fact, the way I'd characterize it
is that the conventional wisdom guys were all saying to draft Oden, but the smartest guys paying the most attention through that college bball season were saying to draft Durant. Obviously, I’m on the side of the smartest guys paying the most attention.
by howlingfantods on Dec 6, 2010 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
If nothing else, no one was saying that
the chasm between where Oden and Durant’s career’s are now would be this wide while the debate before the 07 draft was happening.
More or less is was back and forth with a debate along the lines of ‘This guy will be likely to lead you to championships and not put up Jordan-esque numbers/This guy WILL put up Jordanesque numbers but probably be less likely to lead your team to a championship’.
Big difference between that debate, and what Simmons (and people like him) are trying to frame it as now.
whoa
7 people!?!? Did KP know about this?
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Dec 6, 2010 3:49 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Thorpe, Hollinger, Berri, Givony and Simmons
represents a pretty good chunk of the better basketball commentariat. Who did you guys have on your side? Chad Ford, Marc Stein, Ric Bucher? I’ll take my guys’s opinions over theirs pretty near 100% of the time.
by howlingfantods on Dec 6, 2010 3:52 PM PST up reply actions
The point is how Durant fans act like there was a flood of one-sided opinion on the matter
and now they point to these guys and say “See, see how right I was? See how right we were? In all of your faces” When in reality those guys projected Greg to be a spectacular player for over a decade, just in a different way than Durant. No one who was pro-Oden wouldn’t change that pick, but it’s not the logic that failed us. Injuries have kept Greg off of the court…should we have seen it coming? I guess some people think so. When Oden was playing I saw something different than you did. I saw a guy who had profound impact on the defensive end with his presence alone, something Durant will never (EVER) have the ability to do (change the entire complexion of the opposing offense from the defensive end of the court). I saw Oden beast Tim Duncan, I saw him make established NBA big men look small and helpless against his mass. Was his decision making great? No, but how are you supposed to develop that rehabbing from injury? Bask in the glory of being right and congratulations to you, but if Oden didn’t miss one game due to injury we wouldn’t be having this ridiculous 4-year-after-the-fact debate.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
What's funny is that those of us who dared bring up doubts
about his work ethic, character, whatever were shouted down for being apostates and slanders (here’s a representative sample of me simply saying that his motivation seemed suspect after his pre-draft). I remember a few people saying, “hey, what about this leg thing” and them just getting torrents of abuse for even raising it.
And now the same guys are saying that we pro-durant types never raised these points. The legs were mentioned but obviously none of us were orthopedic experts who studied his lab work, so when folks would mention it, they’d get shouted down for being negative, slanderous, whatever. Of course, selective memory and all, but I remember some alarm expressed by several pro-durant folks around here, and all those folks getting screamed down.
by howlingfantods on Dec 7, 2010 8:59 AM PST up reply actions
The only issue I've had with Greg are his injuries
and anyone who was saying before the draft “Don’t draft Greg Oden, he won’t be able to stay on the court” (certainly not some of the pro-Durant basketball minds that you mentioned) should feel a sense of accomplishment (I guess?) for making an extremely accurate prediction. In the end what does it matter who was right and who was wrong? The Blazers got boned and we all share that agony. You think anyone would have been pro-Greg knowing he’d play 82 games in his first 4 seasons? Again, congratulations on your success. You were right, I was wrong. But injuries aside we wouldn’t be having this conversation and that I am sure of.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Eh. Even after everything, I still think
his desire/motivation/overall psyche is the weak link, not his knees. Other players have come back from years of rehabbing major injuries, but I highly doubt Greg’s capable of the same. I just don’t think he’s got the will or determination.
Dude is emotionally fragile, prone to despondency and possibly clinical depression when facing adversity, has admitted substance abuse issues, doesn’t much care about basketball but cares a lot about partying. Just red flags galore.
I predict he’ll work hard enough to get another big contract, will almost certainly flee portland for warmer and/or bigger cities unless portland massively outbids other suitors. He’ll be somewhat disappointing on the court at best. Maybe top out at around Brendan Haywood level play, another big guy with motivation issues who works just hard enough to get a decent paycheck.
by howlingfantods on Dec 7, 2010 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
First of all, I know we like to think we know athletes because we follow them, but let's not act like we're Greg's best friend
You don’t really know the true Greg Oden and neither do I. Second of all, my whole point is the issues you raise about determination/character/drive as it relates to his RECOVERY would not be an issue had he stayed healthy. We’d be talking about the guy averaging 16, 12, and 3 blocks anchoring a perennial top-4 Western Conference team and we could have a real debate about which player is more valuable. Like I said, to those who predicted Greg’s injuries, kudos to them…I wish that more of them had been in the Blazer war room…but don’t pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining, injuries aside we’re not having this discussion and we’ll never get to truly compare the two talents because we’ll never know what could have been with Greg. It would have been a dominating presence though, that much I am sure of.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Isn't that "we don't know these athletes personally" argument
the same one you used to argue with me this past summer about how Lamarcus was poised to make a tremendous leap in his next few years, against my assertion that the dude obviously doesn’t care enough to give max effort, just professional and decent effort? How’s that argument working out for you? Notice who’s not rushing in to fill the gap left by BRoy?
You’re right. They aren’t our friends. But we can surmise a ton of info about what they’re like by reading their interviews, seeing what they say and don’t say about themselves, what their peers and coaches say and don’t say about them.
Second of all, my whole point is the issues you raise about determination/character/drive as it relates to his RECOVERY would not be an issue had he stayed healthy
Nope. Players need determination/character/drive to become world class players, not just to come back from injuries. The list of all time great players with motivation/drive issues pretty much starts and ends with Shaq.
by howlingfantods on Dec 7, 2010 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
but by all means, keep arguing with the guy
who got killed on these boards for pointing out this past summer that Love and Noah are both better than Lamarcus.
by howlingfantods on Dec 7, 2010 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
ok, you wanna talk injury concerns but you wanna throw Noah and his plantar fasciitis in my face?
and fyi, LMA was averaging career highs in all 5 statistical categories as of a few games ago, so there’s your lack of becoming a more well-rounded player (plus he plays a ton of minutes). You win HowlingFantods, what can I say? Are you happy? I never expected LMA to be forced to be the only frontcourt scorer on a team with no back-to-the-basket low post presence. With Greg’s injury situation you’re probably going to end up right versus most of my predictions, which were predicated on a healthy Greg Oden and Brandon Roy. I’m an optimist, but LMA has improved (you will never be able to convince me that he hasn’t, I see it with my eyes, I see the new post moves, I see the increased blocked shots, etc…) and if Greg were healthy I’d still want LMA more than Joakim. You bury Greg, but from where I stand he still represents the best chance this team has to immediately become a factor again. I hope that your amazing prognostication skills make it to the Blazers front office…if we had seen the injuries coming like you seem to have then we would have been 100% pro-Durant also. I give you credit for supporting Durant initially, he is a phenomenal player…but I stand by the opinion that Oden, sans-injuries, would be just as impactful as Durant and we wouldn’t be having this conversation. That’s the point. Talk about character, fine, but if he had stayed healthy he would be a dominant presence in the NBA and we wouldn’t be regretful about the pick. KP told us KD would be a scoring champion. No one knew Brandon Roy’s knees were gonna hurt his ability so soon. I don’t know what you’re trying to accomplish at this point…congratulations on supporting the guy who didn’t have an unheard of rash of injuries to start his career.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Plantar fasciitis is not that big a deal.
It’s a nuisance injury. Off the top of my head, Tim Duncan, Shaq, Pau, Tyreke, Artest, Rondo have it. It’s painful and keeps them out of a few games each year when it flares up, but it’s hardly career threatening.
Dude. I give my opinions about basketball stuff based on watching and analyzing it. You guys mock my opinions and attack me viciously, and yet I end up being right (and obviously right within a few months of me stating my opinion, like with LMA vs. Noah and Love) far more often than not. So then you guys get mad about it. How does that response make sense? My seeing that Aldridge being kind of lazy and indifferent isn’t the cause of Aldridge being kind of lazy and indifferent.
And you shouldn’t be mad at me that I’m right about it, you should be grateful that someone’s pointing it out to you even before it’s obvious to the whole world so you can impress your buddies with au courant comparisons to Joe Barely Cares while you’re sitting courtside.
by howlingfantods on Dec 7, 2010 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
Look
I appreciate that at this time it appears you have been right about certain things, and I give you credit for that. My points are only this:
1. Do you want a trophy or something?
2. Greg Oden, lack of fire and all, would be a dominant presence in this league if he hadn’t been injured and his defensive impact would parallel Durant’s offensive impact. We did not draft Michael Olowokandi and I cannot emphasize that enough.
3. LMA has improved. With Oden, LMA is a better fit for this roster than Noah and I never argued with you about K Love (both were a different draft class than LMA, so I’m still a little confused about this debate). If LMA is so soft, why are we over +5 pts per 100 possessions with him at C versus only +2 pts per 100 with Camby there? Is that something he could have accomplished last year or two years ago?
I do not believe that I mock your opinions or attack you viciously…I try to have these debates with an open mind but it does bother me when people present opinions as definitive facts (like Noah v LMA). It also irks me a little that you seem to be throwing this stuff back in our face when we are all Blazer fans suffering the ramifications of the Durant-Oden decision. I apologize if I have taken a less than civil tone in response to past posts of yours, and I apologize if you felt ostracized by the pro-Oden crowd for being a dissenting opinion. But you’re talking to me about Oden’s character, when injuries are what have kept him from being what we thought he would be. If you said before that draft not to draft Oden because he will not be able to stay healthy, then you were spot on and that is an impressively accurate prediction. You’re using this blanket “you guys” and I don’t know who you’re referring to…the Blazersedge commentariet? The Pro-Oden crowd? I didn’t even post on this site back then.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
that's just not true
But I understand how you could present the numbers to support that point of view. I know his FG% is down and his TO are up. But he’s getting to the line more than ever and hitting at an 80% clip. He’s blocking shots again and rebounding. His assists and steals are higher than ever. His per game offensive rebounding is significantly better than any other year. I know you’re not an LMA fan either, but if the complaint has been softness he is without question making strides in that department. If the complaint is inefficiency, well then I won’t argue with you except that if he was next to a healthy Oden instead of Marcus Camby his efficiency would be much better. I also think Roy’s current state and the current dynamic of this roster has an effect on it.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
actually, i believe simmons WAS in favor of Oden. If i remember draftkevindurant.com correctly.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
i think im wrong. sorry
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
draft Jordan, trade Drexler and Paxson for a big man
draft Durant, trade Roy, Webster and/or Outlaw for a big man
one of these generations the Blazer’s GM will do the unpopular thing
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Nope...
…I’d trade Paxson absolutely, but I’d keep Clyde (how many other future HOFers were on that team? Besides, Clyde’s trade value vs. his potential was nonexistent after his rookie year). The 84 Blazers were stocked with “pieces” as they say, three of whom were (in)famously traded for Kiki Vandeweghe that summer. The Blazers conceivably could have made an earlier run at Buck Williams using Paxson, Calvin Natt, etc. as bait. But as long as we’re dealing in perfect hindsight, I think it’s obvious that Clyde would do a lot more for that team than anyone they’d land in the scenario you present here; he would more than adequately fulfill the Pippen role at the three (for the record, you’re in agreement with Jack Ramsay, but I still think you’re both wrong).
by Modal Rounder on Dec 6, 2010 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
hmmm
rumor was, had we won the Olajuwan coin flip, Houston would have given us the #2 pick for hometime Clyde. his rookie season showed a TON of potential, and his trade value was pretty good really.
think of that – we were one coin flip away from drafting Hakeem AND Jordan in the same draft.
"I want to be traded to a contender" is almost always code-speak for "I'm a loser."
-Dave, 2/5/2010: http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/2/5/1297509/no-amore-for-amare
Sources, sources, sources...
…without a legit link (and one that cites a well-placed source), I regard “rumors” 26 years after the fact to be about as reliable as whatever’s in my hotmail junk box right now. I doubt Drexler’s trade potential (by itself) could have landed anything near the top 5 in that draft, and I’ve never heard anyone suggest that it would (given that Clyde only got to play about 17 usually rote minutes a game that year).
I was present at one of Clyde’s few break-out games of his rookie season (vs. the Kansas City Kings at the MC in January 1984). He went for seventeen points, had a few steals, and went for a couple of spectacular fast-break dunks. Nice, but nothing I haven’t seen from any number of other struggling rookies over the years. For more on Clyde’s rookie frustrations, I’d recommend reading Cameron Stauth’s “Golden Boys.” One doesn’t get the impression that anyone (other than Clyde himself) saw a “ton” of potential in his play back then, and certainly not the kind of potential that would have warranted risking a #2 pick.
by Modal Rounder on Dec 7, 2010 6:03 AM PST up reply actions
I think Jack's head would have exploded if he had to coach both Jordan and Drexler
Steve Duin (the old Oregonian columnist) did an article back in the mid-late ’80s about “what if” Portland had not traded for Kiki and drafted Jordan. His theory was that Denver would have gone in the tank and Portland would have hired Doug Moe to coach a team of Lever, Jordan, Drexler, etc
Now that would have been an interesting way to spend 1985-1995
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That I do agree with...
…I imagine Dr. Jack would have had a dickens of a time trying to get that team to conform to his vision. Clyde was a handful by himself, but Jordan’s single-mindedness would have increased that tension exponentially.
Along those lines, Jordan did give a great deal of credit to Kevin Loughery (his first Bulls coach) for having given the reins to an unproven rookie which Jordan said helped instill a great deal of self-confidence in his transition to the pros (I believe that’s from a 1992 Playboy interview). That hands-off approach with a rookie seems to me to be almost diametrically opposed to the methods of Jack Ramsey, and I can imagine Duin’s “what if” is a very likely scenario for what would have transpired on a Ramsey/Drexler/Jordan Blazers squad.
by Modal Rounder on Dec 7, 2010 6:16 AM PST up reply actions
Simmons
said that it was a myth at the time that the Blazers needed a center, and what they actually needed was a rebounder. He made the point that they should have tried to put a package together for San Diego’s Terry Cummings that included Paxson, Drexler, and maybe even Natt, and used the second pick on MJ. Buck five years earlier would have been good, too.
The only thing Durant has proved is that he is the new T-Mac
If Russell Westbrook wasn’t on the Thunder, they would still be a lottery team.
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
In the original edition of his book
He says that he’s 98% sure that Durant/Oden would make the next edition of his book for the greatest what ifs of all time.
Proud member of the Toledo Computer Club since 2010.
Bill Simmons doesn't even watch basketball. He is a troll writer. You see it again in this article.
Why do the Blazers become a top destination for Lebron if Durant is here? Are you serious? No I mean, do you really not understand that Durant is a small forward, and Lebron is a small forward, and that neither can play shooting guard or powerforward for 82 games?
Durant is the anti-lebron. They don’t like each other. Bill Simmons is a known bandwagon jumper. My god the city of Boston didn’t want him, now people in LA don’t like him. This guy is an outcast.
The Blazers do pretty well in the draft until they have a chance to land an all-time great player,
at which point they get Buck Fever and fire into the dirt.
Some bad Blazer draft picks:
1972, #1 pick, LaRue Martin i/o Bob McAdoo and Julius Erving.
1984, #2 pick, Sam Bowie i/o Michael Jordan.
2005, #3 pick, Martell Webster i/o Chris Paul and Deron Williams.
2007, #1 pick, Greg Oden i/o Kevin Durant.
That’s a passel of Hall-of-Famers who coulda been wearing Blazer red, but then, we’re not the only team in NBA history that has struck-out at one time or another:
- The Warriors took Joe Barry Carroll in 1980 when they could have had Kevin McHale.
- Ya think the Rockets wished they’d taken Clyde in 1983 i/o Ralph Sampson?
- John Stockton went at #16 in the infamous 1984 draft and Karl Malone at #13 in 1985.
- Three teams passed on Scottie Pippen in 1987.
- Four teams missed Kevin Garnett in 1995.
- 1996 was a great draft year, except for the dozen teams that could have had Kobe Bryant or Steve Nash. (We now have the #2 pick, Marcus Camby).
- The 76ers took Keith “Pale Rider” Van Horn in 1997 when they could have had Chauncey Billups or Tracy McGrady.
- Who knew in 1998 that Dirk Nowitzki (9) and Paul Pierce (10) would be so much better than Michael Olowokandi (1) and Mike Bibby (2)?
- The Wizards in 2001 could have had Pau Gasol i/o Kwame Brown. Tony Parker went to the Spurs at #28.
- The Pistons took Darko in 2003 i/o Carmelo, Bosh, and Wade.
- The Hawks also had a shot at CP-3 and D-Will in 2005 but figured Marvin Williams had more upside.
- Twenty teams could have had Rajon Rondo in 2006 but the Suns drafted him — then traded him to Boston for a 2007 first-round pick, which became Rudy Fernandez.
Our record isn’t so bad compared to other teams. It’s just that when we blow it, we blow it sky-high.
by MiledAnimal on Dec 6, 2010 5:55 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
back in '72
the Blazers were prepared to draft McAdoo but his agents tried to squeeze Glickman for more contract concessions and the owner (Sarkowsky, at the time) told Harry and Stu to look elsewhere
There was no Paul Allen writing big checks back then, so Portland took their lumps, saved their money and drafted the big Redhead in ’74
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree.
I heard that McAdoo would have went to the ABA if the Blazers took him.
If there was no ABA at the time, maybe the Blazers take Bob.
I see Bill Simmons as a guy who would tell a kid with cancer that he should have done more
preventative measures to stop cancer. This guy is always after the fact.
Using Ainge as an example of a guy that Portland should have listened to. Ainge has done nothing but get Garnett from his buddy McFail, and trade away a top pick for Ray Allen.
It would be the equivilant if Portland traded Aldridge for Dirk because we had a Blazer buddy GMing the Mavs.
Didn’t Patterson say he would have taken Durant. Yet he claims credit for drafting Roy, who had bad knees coming into the league? Something doesn’t add up.
not after the fact at all
he was loudly proclaiming that durant was far and away the better player and the guy to draft before the draft and was one of few national voices saying so.
saying this is after the fact is just factually inaccurate. simmons was a durant lover before, during & after the draft.
He needs to write articles about Jay Williams being the best player ever.
Since he thought that once too.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
Didn’t Patterson say he would have taken Durant. Yet he claims credit for drafting Roy, who had bad knees coming into the league?
Yes. Steve was on with Isaac and Suke, last month. He said that the concerns weren’t about Roy’s knees in ‘06, but his flat feet. It’s not that Portland didn’t know about Brandon’s knee surgeries while he was in school, but they didn’t expect it to become an ongoing issue. Patterson said that he had former players (Van Exel, Kenny Smith) who played at a high level in the NBA for years with knees worse than Roy’s are, right now
OTOH, Oden’s heath was a concern to SP prior to the ‘07 draft, and he said he would have selected Durant #1 because he was more of a sure thing. Most Blazer fans see (or remember) Patterson through the biased lens of John Canzano, but Steve was friendly enough during the 1080 interview, and there was no evidence of the former snark that he used to display towards Portland’s media when he was the GM
I can’t wait to hear KP interviewed once he’s no longer employed by the Blazers. I hope Kevin will be as forthcoming as SP has been about his days as Portland’s GM, when that time comes.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Here was my fanshot on the interview from back on the 16th
I’m not sure why the Fan’s website failed to archive this interview. (They only have the recordings from Patterson back in June, online.)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
It's easy for Simmons to make himself look good since Oden has played 82 games in 5 years
and hasn’t even had a chance to prove him wrong.
Oden and Durant were “can’t miss” prospects, Oden was a better fit and we took him. Unless Oden comes back with some of his previous athleticism we will never know if Oden was the right or wrong pick. IMO if Oden stayed healthy he would be the best or second best center in the game, so it would not have been a bad decision. Don’t give me that BS that you knew Oden would be injury prone, if you know that maybe you should start up your own medical practice…
If you look at some of the other first/second pick debates Simmons gets it wrong. For instance about the Howard/Okafor debate? What did you say on that Simmons?
“If they’re smart, they take Emeka Okafor. If they’re dumb, they take Howard. It’s that simple.”
Even a broken clock is right twice a day….
hmm
Here’s what we knew about Oden heading into the 2007 Draft…his right leg was one inch longer than his left leg (a red flag for potential knee/feet/back issues) … openly admitted that he didn’t love basketball and once wanted to become a dentist … frightened everyone in Portland with a jittery pre-draft workout … looked and walked like a thirty-six-year-old man.
-Bill Simmons, 2010
In the span of two hours, I’d gone from dreaming about Greg Oden or Kevin Durant saving the Celtics to Patrick the Bartender earnestly wondering whether the Chinese Brad Lohaus would be available at No. 5.
-Bill Simmons, 2007
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
Simmons actual words pre-draft on Durant vs Oden
Simmons link
To quote some of Bill,
Okay, so I just came up with this concept three seconds ago. Here’s the idea: You’d bet your life that, barring injury, Oden will be a valuable center on a perennial contender. Would you bet it all on Durant’s becoming a valuable forward on a perennial contender? I would, but you just hesitated for a split second. So …
Face it: No GM has the testicular fortitude to pass up a potential superstar center, not even for someone as potentially game-changing as Durant. If you want to compete from now until 2020, take Oden. Simple. But as soon as the Blazers pass on Durant, he will instantly be more dangerous. Because from that moment on, he’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder. As Karl Malone, Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer and others have taught us, a draft slight is a scary thing: It’s a contract-year push that never ends. Each season, you want to stick it to everyone who didn’t believe in you all over again. (Note: The term for this phenomenon is “anti-Darkoism.”) So the Sonics might one day look as if they were the ones who caught the break on May 22. I just don’t know.
He wanted to draft Durant, but there was plenty of doubt in his opinions about it.
Jay Bilas of ESPN was onboard the Oden bandwagon.
And here is what Chad Ford was thinking and hearing from NBA GM’s at the time
A few weeks ago, after I wrote a column addressing Greg Oden vs. Kevin Durant, Bill Simmons e-mailed me and said he thought ESPN could devote a blog to the topic. (And Bill did start a basketball blog to cover this and other topics.)
I continue to be flooded with e-mail from readers about the Oden-Durant debate. Roughly 70 percent of my readers are pro-Oden, but the Durant supporters are louder.
A couple of updates are in order.
First, check out Nets president Rod Thorn’s answer to “The Question of Fear” in Wednesday’s podcast.
Thorn was the GM of the Bulls in 1984 and drafted Michael Jordan with the No. 3 pick. My question to him: If the Bulls had held the No. 1 pick, would he have taken Jordan or Hakeem Olajuwon?
Thorn’s reply? “Hands down, Olajuwon.”
He goes on to explain the thinking going into that draft and how the thinking in the NBA, despite Jordan’s extraordinary success, hasn’t changed that much. Big men are still more highly valued.
Also, I’m getting a lot of questions about why I have Oden ranked No. 1 on my Top 100 when I’ve said on several occasions that I believe Durant is a better player. (By the way, a number of the NBA executives and scouts agree with me about Durant.)
The reason is this: Of the 18 top NBA executives that I’ve spoken with on this issue, all but one told me that they’d take Oden No. 1 — most of them without any hesitation.
The goal of my draft coverage on Insider is to give you a window into what NBA teams are thinking. Some ask for my opinion, too, and I offer it, but at the end of the day, it’s the guys making the draft decisions who count. So until I start hearing from teams that they’ve changed their mind, Oden stays at No. 1.
Finally, here’s an interesting argument from Mike Murano, an Insider reader at Harvard University (they’re smart up there):
“I think one of the reasons that GMs and fans want Oden is that, as we always hear, there is a dearth of quality centers in the league.
“Here, we should take a nod from baseball, and consider their concept of VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). I agree that Durant is clearly an overall better talent. But is the difference between Durant and the average forward greater than the difference between Oden and the average center? Looking quickly over the league, we see many talented forwards compared with only a few top-of-the-line centers.
“In simpler terms, with the Lakers’ championship teams, I liked Kobe much more than I liked Shaq (mainly because of work ethic, and the hypersensitivity of Shaq to criticism). However, I always had to admit if we replaced either of them with another pretty good player in their position, Shaq’s team would always do better. (I’m thinking Cuttino Mobley or Richard Hamilton for Kobe, and Antonio Davis or Elden Campbell for Shaq.) For years, the difference between the best center and the average center has been much greater than the difference between the best guard and the average guard (yes, even Jordan.).”
John Hollinger made a similar point in the podcast last week. So I went and looked up his PER standings to see if the conventional wisdom that there are a lot more talented small forwards than centers was true.
If you define centers by guys who are playing the position, then there are eight players who have a PER better than 20.0 playing this season. If you subtract guys like Pau Gasol, Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh and Jermaine O’Neal (power forwards forced to play center on their team) then the number drops to two — Tim Duncan and Emeka Okafor. We’d have to add Yao Ming to this number, too, if he were healthy. A few more centers — Marcus Camby and Eddy Curry come to mind — are also posting a PER well above the league average.
There are currently five small forwards with a PER at 20.0 or above: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter and Josh Howard. (Note: Michael Redd is also on the list, but since his primary position is the two, we’ll exclude him.)
There are another five small forwards with a PER well above the league average: Caron Butler, Luol Deng, Ron Artest, Josh Smith and Andre Iguodala.
So it really depends on your definition of a center. Given that the league is moving to a more up-tempo style, maybe it’s time to include guys like Howard, Stoudemire and Bosh in that category. If they are, the NBA isn’t hurting for talent at the five position. If you don’t count them — and say that the fact that they are forced to play center is evidence of the dearth of great fives in the league — then maybe the VORP idea makes some sense.
I know this — it is certainly the perception in the league that Oden’s position trumps Durant’s talent.
One more thing. It’s tough to deal with projections, but almost everyone I speak with thinks that in two to three years Oden will be the best center in the NBA,[..]uming things go well. Yes, better than Yao or Tim Duncan.
While I know some scouts believe Durant could duplicate that feat among NBA small forwards, I don’t think anyone is ready to hand over that title any time soon, especially given the status of LeBron James and the improved play of Carmelo Anthony.
So lets not all give revisionist history lessons, even the Durant supporters realized the talent in Oden and thought he would be a great player. This level of injuriness, (I think I might have just made up that word) was not projected by anyone, not even the “great” Bill Simmons.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
by usmcr3049 on Dec 6, 2010 9:42 PM PST reply actions 3 recs
I think this is the most frustrating part about the Durant/Oden conversation
Yes at this point, you have to say the people advocating taking Durant were right at this point, but almost to a man (except maybe Bill Simmons, who has his own laundry list of draft laughers) they were right for the wrong reason. NO ONE was saying “take Durant because Oden will be injury-plagued throughout his career”, it was “take Durant because he’s a better player”. People were right that Durant was the better pick, but only because Greg’s injuries have made the discussion moot.
It’s like when you see a player bank in a straight away three. Yeah, it’s a made shot, but not the way they were attempting to shoot it. So yes, circumstances have worked out decisively in Durant’s favor, but in a fairly different way than what every person advocating for Durant was saying at the time. If it had been Durant instead that was plagued by repeated injuries, we’d be having the exact same conversation in reverse.
#52
by Royster on Dec 6, 2010 10:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
But a healthy Durant is a better player than a healthy Oden
which is exactly what I and a lot of the draft experts I most respect expected.
by howlingfantods on Dec 6, 2010 11:43 PM PST up reply actions
and the injury thing was an argument that was brought up
although you’re right that that was more of an afterthought/supporting argument, rather than the line of argument that basically said that Durant had a higher ceiling, better likelihood of reaching that ceiling, and that Oden was a bit of a stiff.
by howlingfantods on Dec 6, 2010 11:48 PM PST up reply actions
None said "Oden was a bit of a stiff"
usmcr already pointed out what Bill Simmons’s comments on the situation, Hollinger’s draft rater has as many misses as hits over the years and claimed Oden was the 3rd best prospect that year (behind Mike Conley, also, not exactly a ringing endorsement for it), even David Berri’s joke of a prediction had Oden as the 4th best player in the draft (Guess who was #1? Hint: Not Durant). But regardless like I said, none of them save Simmons (he who relentlessly ridiculed Orlando for passing on Okafor) based anything about their evaluation on injury potential.
Every single commentator thought they would both be fantastic players, and unimpeachable picks similar to the Jordan/Hakeem situation. None of the ones that thought Durant should have been picked first thought taking Oden would have been a horrible mistake, and vice versa.
And yes, healthy Durant has been better than Oden coming back from multiple knee injuries. I’m not sure how that proves what things would have been like had both of them gotten the same amount of time on the court healthy.
But really, I just don’t care. It’s a pointless debate at this point, and just a bunch of stupid circle-jerking on behalf of Portland fans going on about how Durant is the next T-Mac and how we’re really better off taking Greg even now or Durant backers who just “knew” Greg was a disaster waiting to happen despite the fact that not a single NBA personnel man or commentator thought he was anything but an elite prospect.
#52
by Royster on Dec 7, 2010 12:20 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
"Bit of a stiff" isn't the opposite of "fantastic player."
Here’s draftexpress’s comments about Oden’s lack of fluidity and stiffness on his post moves. But still rating him as a top prospect, just not Durant’s equal.
Durant was better than Oden after Oden had one knee injury. By a metric ton. And honestly, I didn’t see the knee injury as having removed much of Oden’s effectiveness. His problems his first season were poor defensive decisionmaking, mechanical and ineffective post moves especially against larger defenders, inability to stay out of foul trouble, and poor conditioning.
Same things we saw out of Oden’s rookie season at OSU. Same things that the pro-durant folks pointed out in 2007, same things that draftexpress listed as problems in that article I linked. So I don’t think it had to do with the knee. It had to do with the lack of basketball skills. It didn’t make him a poor player— he still ended up with a high PER, WP48, all that jazz.
But it didn’t look like he was headed to superstardom, especially with the troubling signs of a poor psyche for becoming an elite competitor in professional sports. More than a few careers have been derailed by lack of competitive juices and a lack of true passion for the sport.
I think Golliver’s treatise had stuff about the injury potentials. Like I said, it wasn’t a huge part of the pro-durant narrative but it was mentioned.
I don’t care either, but you’re the one who’s mistakenly arguing that the pro-durant folks were only pro-durant for the wrong reasons. It’s a pisser how the guys who were wrong in the first place continue to denigrate the folks who were right. After all these years, how about just conceding that you were wrong?
by howlingfantods on Dec 7, 2010 12:59 AM PST up reply actions
The statement
Durant was better than Oden after Oden had one knee injury. By a metric ton
is more revisionist history. The stats just don’t agree with your point of view. Durant is better than Oden now by a mile, but that is because of multiple injuries. Durant’s rookie year was horrible, he was nothing but a chucker on a bad team. He didn’t involved his team mates, turned the ball over and couldn’t guard anyone. Hollinger had him rated as an average NBA player with a PER of 15.87.
In his second year, with a new coach after a few games in he improved his shot selections, resulting in improved FG percentages, but he still turned the ball over too much, couldn’t pass to save his life, and still couldn’t defend his position. His second year PER of 20.85 was a great improvement.
In Greg’s 2nd year, (since he missed his 1st due to injury) he was foul proned, and stiff on offense, and he turned the ball over too much. But even with those limitations he was a very productive rookie, with a PER of 18.13. God only knows what he would have been capable of if we had seen the Summer league athlete Greg as a rookie, vs the much heavier and less explosive Greg we witnessed. But even this reduced Oden, was in the same “metric ton” as Durant at the time.
Durant is by far the better player now, but some of that must be accreditted to him having the playing time to develop his game, while Oden has only had 1 full season worth of games. AS Royster said, the arguement is all but mute now because of the injuries, which is really too bad.
**I only used PER in this comment to support my arguement because of time, but many other metric’s point to the same result.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
by usmcr3049 on Dec 7, 2010 7:15 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
*Yawn*
I assumed it was implied with the Hakeem/Jordan comparison (or do people really still think that Houston would prefer to have Hakeem over the GOAT in hindsight?). Yes, Durant was the better pick, but my point was and is, what should have been a semi-interesting debate about two great players was rendered moot by injuries that no one saw coming (Ben devoted roughly as many words to a picture of Greg dancing with a random girl in high school as he did to injury potential in “The Case for Kevin”, at least what of it is still posted online, so let’s stop trying to shoehorn that argument in, huh?)
But as far as Givony, I’m sure his initial thoughts on Oden after half his college season are more representative about his thoughts about Oden in June 2007 than what DE wrote in May or April, or what Givony himself wrote in his report card following the draft:
Greg Oden was an obvious pick that takes this team’s potential to a whole new level
At some point saying “it didn’t look like he was headed for superstardom” is a little ridiculous, unless you limit the sample size to Oden’s first month or so of college hoops, like Givony was working off of in the article you posted.
Really, though, I was at UT during Durant’s freshman year, I knew he would be phenomenal. I marginally preferred Oden at the time due to the dearth of good centers in the league, even if I thought there was a fairly good chance Durant would be a better player in a vacuum. but I was completely on board with either pick. Either would have been a good pick, but no one really foresaw this being a draft debacle on the Bowie scale. Just a fairly standard “good player gets drafted before somewhat better player” scenario that gets played out every year instead of one worthy of being one of the major “What if…”‘s in NBA history. I mean, it’s not like people fantasize about what might have happened if the Bullets had drafted KG over Sheed in 1995 or Iggy over Deng in 2004.
#52
by Royster on Dec 7, 2010 7:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
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