The Future of Each Player, and the coach
As we get into a time when trade talk seems to heat up every player on the Blazers has a certain role to play.
We will start with Luke Babbitt, the 1st round pick for the Blazers last year hasn't lived up to his hype in the NBA, mainly due to his lack luster defense. While being sent to the D-league he has performed well, but still hasn't shown he can play good defense. It is safe to say Luke could be thrown as a filler in a deal to make the numbers match, however other teams probably wouldn't want him. He will stay through this season, and probably next season, but after that it remains to be seen.
Elliot Williams also was seen to be a high flier aggressive player taken in the second round, yet a season ending injury is cause for concern, and more than likely he will stay with the Blazers this season, as teams don't like to acquire an injured player.
Armon Johnson has been the best player from last years draft, as his aggressive Defense and good shooting ability has earned him some minutes, the blazers are very high on him for the future, as he learns to not turn the ball over as much and become a smarter player. More than likely he will be with the Blazers a couple seasons for sure, and after that it hinges on how improved he becomes as a point guard.
Sean Marks, will probably stay with the team this year and then get let go.
Patty Mills is outplaying his contract with his inspired play with smart passing and above average Defense and his smart shots. His playing has become more controlled and because of that he has had fewer turnovers. It is likely at this point, if he continues his strong play that he will stay with the blazers next season, unless another team really wants him.
Dante Cunningham is a player that has a good mid range shooter, and is a smart player that wont hurt you on offense. His defense isn't that great, mainly because he is small for his position, and because of that he will never be a starter in the league. If he wants more money he is expendable, however he is a nice player to have off the bench, but he will never score you a lot of points. He could easily be gone once is contract ends, but only if the Blazers have someone to replace him with.
Rudy Fernandez is an interesting case. He excels in the open floor and doesn't know how to play with slow pace basketball. Offensively he well rounded, and exceptional at threes. However he has expressed his desire to leave, mainly because he doesn't fit the style of play. If his value gets high enough he could be traded, but the Blazers want a top 10 pick for him. Rudy could break out and could get that value in return, or he could stay with the Blazers. His status is up in the air, and is contingent on his play and the value the Blazers can get for in return.
Batum was once thought to be invaluable, his long wingspan and his exceptional defense was something that couldn't be taught, but he has sense then checked himself mentally out of games and the starting lineup. If Batum could get a stronger mentality he could be great, but he could easily be someone who is traded this season. His play most of this season has left little to be desired, but keep in mind he is only 22, and the Blazers are hoping he will improve, as are other teams. He could potentially be one player that wont be in a Blazers uniform by the end of this season.
Joel Przybilla who started this season injured is slowly coming back to form. He so far has been a shell of himself though, as his shot blocking and rebound has virtually been non existent because he doesnt have the movement that once had. His expiring contract however is something of great value and can be of great use to teams finding themselves wanting to shed some money. Joel most likely will be traded this season, especially if we get a Center in return.
Brandon Roy, was once thought as untradable, however his injury concerns, as well as his lack of leadership and cohesiveness with Andre Miller has left little to be desired. He can still shoot, but he isn't the teammate he once was. He is a liability on defense as he drags his left leg around. From the look of it, it doesnt seem like he will get much better with time. There isn't anything to operate on and his attitude has only gotten worse because of it. The problem is that his contract is huge, as in 82 million dollars huge. However other teams may take a shot at him as trades to swap large contracts hoping Roy will improve. I think he is more likely to be traded than Miller, but his contract makes it hard to do so. If he stays with the blazers though, he should be regulated to the Bench unless his condition improves.
Greg Oden, the player the blazers hinged their playoffs on, has to this point become a bust. While on the court he has been dominate, it is getting him on the court that has been the problem. Other teams may offer him a contract, but few teams would want to offer him a contract above our qualifying offer. He could likely be with a team that would take a flier on him, but from what Larry Miller said it seems they will probably offer him a one year qualifying offer (8.6 mil) with a second year team option. I think it would be nice to hand Oden over to another team, but i think the blazers are out to prove he can still play and may try to keep him. I see him in a Blazers uniform, unless someone offers more, which i feel is doubtful
Andre Miller has been floated has trade bait, but only in order to get a point guard in return. He and Joel could easily be paired for Gortat and Nelson in orlando, or Mo and Varejo in Cleveland. The deal would have to be right to get rid of him, and i dont think that deal will exist. Miller has been the most invaluable player to the blazers just because he hasnt been injured. I dont think he will leave this season unless they get a PG in return.
Wesley Matthews might as well be the next Brandon Roy. He will probably take over Roy's spot when Roy gets benched or traded, however there is no way Matthews gets traded unless he gets injured. Couple that with Matthews contract (it is front loaded) and it is the best signing the Blazers have made in years.
Marcus Camby has been another invaluable player on this team that the blazers wouldn't know what to do without. Even though he is 37 he is still an amazing rebound, a good passer, and holds the Blazers interior together. He will more than likely end his career in a Blazers uniform unless a trade comes along the Blazers pass up. Even if he becomes the back up later down the road, he is a Blazer they cant afford to lose.
Lamarcus Aldrige is the safest person on this list. He has improved his defense this season, he has improved his interior shot and has become the #1 scorer in Roy's absence. His contract is just getting started and there are few Power Forwards in this league that play to his level. Barring a decline, or injury Aldrige will probably be a blazer the rest of his contract.
Nate McMillian is a different story. Some players dont like his half court style of coaching, and i tend to agree it doesnt fit the style of the players talents, but more of that of Dallas. The players have a hard time adjusting to it. Nate however has dealt very well though the face of adversity, and being able to adapt to different rotations. However alot of pressure is on him to get to the playoffs. this year however i think the organization realizes that it is out of nate's hands. Injuries to Roy and Oden have derailed this season, as well as front office moves, and getting rid of the Bench, (Martel, Bayless). Nate could become the scapegoat, but more than likely, in reality the blazers will probably give him a new contract, mainly because there isnt any other coaches to hire.
From this we can deduce that Joel, Miller, Rudy, and Roy are the most likely to be traded ( in that order) and that Nate might find himself without a Job but it is unlikely.
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good diagnosis of team........
that is a great piece of disecting each player on the blazer roster. i agree with everything and ive said so many times roy needs to be traded because he is just burning us and giving us no chance to win. aldridge is just killing it out there on the floor and he is putting up great numbers. miller should not be traded, he is doing alright and plus he is getting us steals and assists. oden should have never been drafted, nate is a good coach but if your team don’t like you they start to derail you and cause you to lose your job. look at what is going on lately, they lose six games then win 4 then lose three so something obviously is going on and as managment why havent you come down out of your offices and put some fear into some of these lowlife individuals who underhandedly killing your coach and making him look bad with them crappy loses? portland, make some trades or lose more games and do not let roy back on the court unless he ready to play instead of cry.
I'll give you a rec for taking the time to put all of that together
Cho has been active in trade discussions, at least he’s been rumored to be active. Unlike previous years when KP was the GM, Rich might make a move early in the season and not wait until February. The writing’s already on the wall, this team is not going to the post season.
I would prefer the decision on Nate be made sooner than later, because it’s backwards to start restructuring a roster without having a head coach in place. But perhaps Paul Allen will tell Rich “this is the kind of team I want to watch” and the GM will start retooling the lineup and worry about hiring a coach, later. If McMillian makes it all the way to the summer as Portland’s coach, I suspect he’ll want to explore other coaching opportunities, and he’ll be receiving offers from several NBA teams.
One thing I’m fairly certain of, is that the Vulcans aren’t going to allow Cho and Allen to take on any big contracts (looking at you, Iggy) without a salary of equal length and size being removed from the payroll at the same time. The current team isn’t going to advance in the playoffs, and without the lockout looming the revenue simply isn’t going to be there next season, so it makes fiscal sense to reduce the payroll and prepare for the strike and the aftermath of the CBA negotiations.
This may mean that Miller, Camby and/or Przybilla will be dealt, but since Andre and Joel’s contracts are expiring they might not be the ones heading out of town. The front office could save nearly 13 mil during the strike-shortened season by moving Camby for an expiring contract (or two) as painful as that would be to Marcus and the rest of his teammates.
Obviously the elephant in the room is Roy and his max deal. The once unthinkable trade discussions are now allegedly on the table, and the opportunities to rebuild the roster would open up wider if Brandon’s salary wasn’t on the books for the next 4 years. Perhaps the new CBA will allow for a one-time “get out of jail free” card, so teams can remove an unwanted contract from their capspace—it’s happened in the past, so there’s faint hope. Or maybe the reports are true and insurance will pay Brandon’s salary if he chooses to medically retire.
Regardless, the franchise is in a similar pickle as they were back in 2004, with Darius Miles’ LTC and deteriorating health. The talent on the current roster is better now than it was back then, and certainly the players are more tradeable, with Roy being the exception.
Like I said, I expect a sell-off, and the younger/cheaper players (like Batum) to be retained and more draft choices (hopefully in 2012, not 2011) to be acquired. If Cho can flip Roy and/or Camby for players with contracts that will expire this June, that will make the Vulcans happy and set Portland up for future deals after the rules of the new CBA are in place.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
without the lockout looming
*with
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think your contract theory is flawed regarding the lockout
Maybe I’m wrong, but the lockout means nobodies getting paid.
Owners don’t get TV money, or ticket revenue, or concessions, and athletes don’t get paid either.
Dumping Camby for contracts that expire this year doesn’t make sense.
If you are assuming there is a lockout, that Camby salary won’t be paid in the lockout year.
This year might be the first year that 2 year contracts are thought of as expiring contracts.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
by mittsabishy on Dec 19, 2010 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
Hmmm, interesting point
I assume there are still some expenditures that will need to be paid by the Blazers during the lockout, other than the player’s salaries. But nothing that Paul Allen can’t handle. Maybe some of Portland’s office staff will have to go on leave of absence, as well as the coaches and scouts (who will be getting paid if they’re under contract, since they’re not a part of the player’s union) It will be interesting to see if McMillian is even offered a contract to not coach, and what the future holds for assistants like Bayno and Canales.
I’m still sticking to my “no new LTCs without equal salary (years and dollars) being removed from the payroll” take . League revenue should be down once the games resume (there was a strong fan backlash the last time the season was delayed) and this will especially be the case for teams that aren’t immediately successful in the W-L column following the work stoppage—even though in Portland there’s not a lot of pro sports diversions for the fans during the winter and early spring months.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Great write-up, well thought out
One thing I would add about Armon Johnson is that if Andre Miller is traded AJ might not see as much on-court improvement, as ‘Dre seems to be mentoring him right now. As two4larue has pointed out in previous posts, Portland’s track record in the past at developing and keeping point guards is not the best.
"I don’t think it’s lost. I don’t think it’s lost. It’s adversity and something that we have to deal with. We wish it wasn’t like this, but it is."
-Brandon Roy 11/18/2010 as told to CBSSports.com blog
I think you've more or less got it nailed.
I don’t think Roy is tradable due to his massive contract and uncertain future and would argue that Nic Batum is the most likely Blazer to get traded due to his untapped potential, young age, and low contract.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Nic Batum is the most likely Blazer to get traded due to his untapped potential, young age, and low contract.
And I’d argue that flipping Frenchy to make a “season-saving Hail Mary deal” would be shortsighted, especially for a team that’s heading back into in a rebuilding phase and for a franchise that has had trouble drafting and developing quality SFs for decades. A new head coach with a different system could make a big difference in Nic’s game and confidence; I’d rather see Batum reach his potential in a Blazer’s uniform than have him go elsewhere and realize the upside that NBA scouts and execs have been projecting for him these past few years. Of all of the current Blazer players, he’s the one who is “missing” Monty Williams the most.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

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