The Dallas Game: Anatomy of a win turned into a loss (how to bench the wrong guy)
by PDXBuckeye on Dec 15, 2010 11:06 PM PST
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First off, great game LMA. I hope to see more of that.
There were many commendable things about tonights performance given where the Blazers have been so far this season. There is a reason we lost this game
The first half of this game had the feeling of a little more than half the games so far this season with one important difference. The Blazers were missing easy shots all the time (as usual), the difference, they were being aggressive none the less. Typically when they start missing like they were tonight they have been real passive and tentative. That did not happen tonight, and while their struggles continued none the less and despite going into halftime they came out with a better mindset to finish strong in the second half.
The beginning of the second half Portland still had not put anything together really. Kidd hit a 3 pointer at the 7:39 mark closing a 12 - 7 run opening the first 4:21 of the 2nd half. Things were not looking good.
Then the switch flipped.
Let's look at some play by play
First Matthews drives the rack for a nice high layup off the glass at about 7:25. (15 point game)
Then Miller drives the lane and dishes a pass to Aldridge under the hoop who draws the hard foul at the 7:00 mark and makes 1 of 2. (14 point game)
Miller the grabs a defensive board on the other end after a Dallas miss and pushes the ball down the floor and hits a trailing Matthews for an assist on an open 3 at the 6:37 mark. (11 point game)
Camby grabs the rebound on the other end after Matthews pressures the Dallas 3 point shooter into a miss. Camby gets the ball to Miller who pushes it up court quickly. Miller passes out to Matthews who passes back to Miller. Miller pitches it into Aldridge and Aldridge draws the foul on Nowitski and makes 1 of 2 at the 6:01 mark. (10 point game)
Nowitski misses a 3 Aldridge gets the board passes to Roy who delivers the ball to a fast breaking Matthews for an easy layup at the 5:39 mark. (8 point game)
Terry misses a 3 pointer rebounded by Aldridge. They get the ball to Miller who then drives the ball wide to the baseline, hits Roy in the lane who in turn makes a fantastic touch pass to Aldridge for a slam dunk cutting from the opposite side at the 5:05 mark. (6 point game)
Caron Butler makes a nice cut to the hoop for a 2 point basket. (8 point lead)
Aldridge and Nowitski trade misses. Roy rebounds and passes out to Miller who drives in and then fades for an 11 foot jumper at the 4:00 mark. (6 point lead)
Butler answers with a driving layup on the other end.
3:23 left in the 3rd Miller goes to the bench, game over. from the 7:25 mark to the 3:23 mark we outscored Dallas 13 to 4.
Some analysis
In the prior 4:00 minutes of the Blazers converted on 6 of 7 possessions. 5 of the six makes were keyed by Miller in one fashion or another (everybody else was playing well together as well). Why bench the guy? Why?
In that 4:00 minute stretch we outscored Dallas 13 - 4. Miller was keying the offense during that stretch. Not only did he go to the bench, but he sat there for 9:10 seconds. We were scoring on Dallas 3 points for every 1 they scored over that stretch and then for the next 9 minutes we traded baskets with them (we did score 1 more point than they did over that 9:10 stretch, but 3 to 1 is better than 1 to 1 scoring by far).
To make matters worse the next guy to the bench (aside from Camby whose impact was negligible tonight, particularly during this stretch) was Matthews who had scored more than 1/3rd of Portland's 29 points in the 3rd period (Matthews had 11 in the 3rd).
To put this another way, during that 4:00 minute stretch keyed by Miller's play we scored 3.25 points per minute. The next 9 minutes we scored 2.22 points per minute. Dallas did not get better from the floor during that subsequent 9 minute stretch, we got worse with Andre on the bench. (we scored 20 points to their 19 over that 9 minute stretch). The first 4 minutes after Dre's return to the game we averaged 3 points per minute as well).
I am sorry but that is horrible coaching. i do not have any idea what game Nate was watching, but when you are outscoring your opponent 3 to 1 why bench the guy keying that offense? Why? And then to leave him there for 9 freaking minutes? It is just insane. Once Miller re-entered the game we tied it up within the next 4 minutes (12 -5 run) with Miller getting 2 points and 3 assists over that stretch.
Miller did have those two costly turnovers with just over a minute to play, but there is no doubt in my mind benching Miller for 9 minutes in the second half was a horrible horrible move.
That is where we lost this game.
Some Additional analysis.
It took the Blazers 16 minutes and 40 seconds of game time to go from 17 down to a tie game. Miller was on the floor for only 7 minutes and 30 seconds of that stretch. While Miller was on the floor the Blazers outscored Dallas 25 to 9. While he was on the bench we went 20 to 19.
The 7 minutes 30 seconds while Andre was running the offense during that comeback we averaged 3.33 points per minute, while he was out we scored 2.18 points per minute.
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20 to 1 ?
Blazers 20, Mavs 1 ? Should that be Mavs ousscored Blazers 20 to 1 ? that would fit your agruement.
Plus one of Millers “turnovers” was a blown foul call.
If Oden does not give up on the Blazers, we should not give up on him.
I was screaming at the tv
Pretty unreal substitutions…….but par for the course with Nate.
I’ve never been a fire Nate guy, but this season, I’ve been slowly converted. I’ve never agreed with his substitution patterns, but gave him the benefit of the doubt because the team was winning. But tonight was a total disaster for Nate. It was great that the camera caught Dre’s reaction.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
just watched the Nate post game
he credited the smaller lineup for the comeback.
Not in the post above but Miller hit Aldridge for 3 consecutive assists when he returned to the game in the stretch that tied the game.
Nate has no idea what is happening in front of his own eyes.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
yup
the camera definitely caught Miller showing his anger at being subbed. Dumb move by Nate and he does it all the time.
#52
me too
but i think he was pissed at his turnovers at the point. He knew that game got away from them with the combo of his benching and then his turnovers…
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
I agree with you on this--great post
Nate is a great coach, he just isnt utilizing our guys to their strengths. His strict sub patterns need to go, every now and then continue to roll with the hot hand, dont just sub out because the game got to some time mark youve set in your head, sub a guy who has cooled off not one who is hot!!!
by cavejunctionblazer on Dec 16, 2010 12:57 AM PST reply actions
I don't see how this lost the game for the Blazers.
The Blazers were down 8 when Miller left the game and down 5 when he came back in. I also don’t see where Miller was key of 5 of those 6 scoring possessions.
The first Mathews layup was a kick-out from Aldridge. The Aldridge free throws at the 6:01 mark was a simple entry pass and Aldridge drew the foul. The pass to Roy who then passed to Aldridge was made because Miller dribbled into a baseline trap and Roy cut from the corner to the paint. I guess you could give miller credit for that, but I would give Roy the credit for that play.
Also, during the first four minute stretch the Blazers scored 3.25 points per minute, the 9 minute stretch we scored 2.45 points per minute and the second four minute stretch we scored 2.5 points per minute. When Miller went back in the Blazers went on a 10-5 run. During that stretch miller had 2 points and 2 assists.
I think the Blazers lost the game in the final 2 minutes when Miller had 2 turnovers(one should have been a foul) and Nowitski took over for his team.
we scored 12 points in that second 4 minute stretch of time
which is 3 points per minute…
The miller to the baseline play was a smart play and Roy made a fantastic play. My point is no that the other players were not doing well well, but rather Miller was keying what it took to close the gap.
Miller also had 3 assists in that second 4 minute period.
He got the ball to Aldridge both times he drew fouls in the first 4 minute run.
I acknowledge the two turnovers were costly, but they only matttered because Miller got them back in the game setting up the offense which was humming when he was actually allowed to play.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
We scored 10
Miller came in when Aldridge was at the free throw line. One of the assists you clam he had was just a simple entry pass. I don’t think any of that mattered to be honest. We lost the game in the last 2 minutes because of poor execution and Dirk putting the Blazers away.
by Silky Johnson on Dec 16, 2010 2:01 PM PST up reply actions
I think he's was trying to get Brandon more involved.
When I saw that they were subbing, I was hoping it was to get Brandon out of there, since his game is in the toilet right now. Taking out Dre made no sense to me and you could tell he was frustrated by the decision.
I too have always liked and defended Nate, but he has to face the grim reality that BRoy just can’t carry the team anymore. He’s still in denial, I think. Move on to acceptance, Nate, or at least anger.
Hurray for the Teflon Man
Miller did have those two costly turnovers with just over a minute to play,but there is no doubt in my mind benching Miller for 9 minutes in the second half was a horrible horrible move.
That is where we lost this game.
Consecutive plays:
Blazers down 2 with 1:34 to play – Miller turns the ball over – Dallas scores
Blazers down 4 with 1:07 to play – Miller turns the ball over – Dallas scores
Blazers down 6 with 0:54 to play – game over.
When Roy used to iso at the end of games and we lost he was a selfish bum, never mind he kept us in the game to get in that position, or that he delivered at the end of games with an exceptional success rate. But when Miller tries to take over at the end of a game and fails he just wasn’t used enough earlier.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 16, 2010 10:53 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I AM NOT BAGGING ON ROY
You really think the right move was to bench Miller for 9 minutes? Really? You blame this loss on Miller? Really?
We are not even close to be in this game without the teams production increase with him on the floor. We made up 16 of a 17 point deficit the 7:30 when he was in we only made a 1 point game in the 9 minutes he was out. OK so 2 of the points were foul shots on a foul that was called right before he entered the game, that still means we gained 14 or the 17 with him on the vs a 3 point gain with him out?
This is not saying anybody played badly during that stretch, things were just working really well when nate benched the guy, and production improved when he reentered the game.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
Whether it fits your love affair with Miller or not, the game was lost in the final minute and half.
The Blazers were down 2 pts and had the ball. They had the opportunity to tie or go ahead with one play. Miller then tried to take over the game and made 2 turnovers in a row. That lost the game for the Blazers.
The game was not lost by benching Miller for 9 minutes because it was not lost at the 1:34 point. If it were, then we wouldn’t have been down 2 pts and had the ball with a minute and half to play. Your statement that we would have been better off leaving Miller in the game is pure speculation and just what you want to believe. No one knows what would have happened if Miller had stayed on the court. We could have gotten ahead or fallen further behind. You are speculating to fit what you want to believe to make Miller look better and Nate look worse.
But it’s a FACT that we were in the game and had a chance to tie or go ahead with a minute and half to go. It’s a FACT that the result of what Nate actually did (as opposed to your wishful speculation) had us in a position to tie or go ahead at that late point in the game. It’s a FACT that Miller made 2 turnovers at the point. That isn’t speculation like your post, it’s FACT.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 17, 2010 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
fine
but as a coach, when you are looking at what is happening on the floor, do you think your best option is to bench the guy keyng the comeback. IT is a FACT that Miller was driving the offense on that 13-4 run. It is a fact that, at that time in the comeback we were averaging 3 points for every 1 they scored. It is a fact Nate Benched him. It is a fact that our production dropped from 3 to 1 to 1 to 1 once Dre went to the bench. It is a fact that when Miller finally was put back in our production increased back to nearly 3 to 1.
The fact that you refuse to see the value of that production to blame Miller for this loss is more of your indication of how you feel about Miller rather than any real consideration of what happened throughout the game.
Yes those turnovers were bad, I was ticked at Dre for them, but that does not mean I am happy about how Nate substituted in this game. It does not mean the numbers do not demonstrate that during the comeback Dre was the key to that productivity.
To assert that the only thing that mattered about Dre’s performance was those two turnovers is ridiculous as well and unfair.
Maybe leaving Andre in, we would have dropped off production wise just as much, but you can’t assert that either. Evidence suggests otherwise, but you are right, it did not happen so we “can’t” KNOW. In the end, though you are basically you are arguing that there is no such thing as a poor choice by a coach because you never know what the other choice would have yielded. That is just nuts.
How can you determine who to draft? Who to hire? Who to put in a certain role? they have not done what they are going to because they have not done i yet? I’ll tell you how, you make judgements based on past performance, you make inferences from certain data, that is fundamentally the coach’s job, to make choices based on observation, the performance numbers suggest he made the wrong choice. Again, you are right, we can’t know because it didn’t happen, but in your world no decision can be considered a bad one because the other choice may have always been just as bad. Why have a coach? Why track performance?
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
Why not confine the debate to something I actually said?
do you think your best option is to bench the guy keyng the comeback
No, and I never said anything remotely about that issue or that subject. Nothing. I didn’t address that point of your post at all. You’re just putting words in my mouth to have something to argue with.
To assert that the only thing that mattered about Dre’s performance was those two turnovers is ridiculous as well and unfair.
I never said anything remotely like that.
You said:
… there is no doubt in my mind benching Miller for 9 minutes in the second half was a horrible horrible move.
That is where we lost this game.
That was not WHERE we lost this game, and that was the ONLY one of your points I argued with. I never said anything about Miller’s performance in other parts of the game, or whether it was a good idea that he was on the bench or not, or that the turnovers were the only thing that mattered. I only argued with your point that the game was lost when Dre was on the bench for 9 minutes.
Maybe leaving Andre in, we would have dropped off production wise just as much, but you can’t assert that either.
I didn’t assert that we would have dropped off production wise just as much. Are you saying I did?
you are arguing that there is no such thing as a poor choice by a coach because you never know what the other choice would have yielded. That is just nuts.
Yes that would be nuts. I didn’t say anything remotely like that. It’s nuts for you to put those words in my mouth so you can argue with your own statements.
A week ago I made a long post about Nate’s faulty strategy at in the last few seconds of a game that denied us the best chance to get a 3-pt shot and tie or win a game. It was bad strategy regardless of the outcome. If you had said it was bad strategy to leave Dre on the bench for 9 minutes I might have agreed with you. But you said that was where the game was lost. It was not. That’s the only point I addressed. All of this other stuff you are accusing me of saying or thinking you are inventing.
Nate’s strategy may have been bad, but it worked. It did not lose the game for us. The Blazers had a great chance to win the game in the last 1:30. If you wanted to win that game against one of the hottest teams in the league, you would have been glad to be in that position (down 2 pts but you had the ball with 1:30 left)
The fact that you refuse to see the value of that production to blame Miller for this loss is more of your indication …
Again you put words in my mouth. I never said anything about not valuing Millers production. You invented that so you can argue with it.
It’s impossible to have a useful debate with people that put words in your mouth and then argue with their own statements. It’s really effective in politics, and probably impresses people here that share one’s views for the same reason. But it’s really pointless to debate with someone that is making up both sides of the conversation.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 17, 2010 4:58 PM PST up reply actions
One of those turnovers was an obvious foul. Even the commentators were yelling…
then replaying and replaying the obvious foul. Taking miller out of the game was a bad move with respect to momentum. Momentum is what drives come-backs. I won’t say Mcmillan killed there “come from behind”, but he definitely halted there momentum.
we could have had a lead.
it is not coinsidental that once Dallas got that 17 point lead we got our act together and, with Miller we scored more than 3 points per minute versus Dallas’ 1 point per minute and then with Miller out each team had 2 per minute?
We had them on their heals with Miller in, we matched them with Miller out (matching them is not terrible, we played well with Miller out, just not as well as we were with him in after Dallas took that huge lead).
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
Miller had 2 critical turnovers. Who cares if they were bad calls - he went into a packed lane and fumbled the ball away.
#12
by collectiveshane on Dec 16, 2010 1:39 PM PST reply actions
Hey, don't be criticizing Andre Miller on BE.
He’s the Blazer’s MVP and up-coming 2011 All-star. Andre is finally going to get the credit and respect from the league’s coaches that has eluded him for 11 years. We going to rebuild around Andre and he will lead the Blazers to the same playoff glory he has led every other team he has played on. Andre will not only reopen the Blazer’s Window he will bulldoze the walls down like they are Blake Griffin!
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 16, 2010 2:26 PM PST up reply actions
You Miller haters just hate miller
that is why people do not listen to your criticisms. I mention his two turnovers in the original post for gods sake They sucked and they hurt us.
That does not mean he did not/was not having a positive impact on that comeback. It does not mean that benching him for 9 minutes is the right move.
Miller is not the future of this team, neither is Dante Cunningham, does that mean that when they are playing really well they should sit on the bench? No they play well they should be on the floor. Otherwise we would only field 3 or 4 player son our roster since they are the only ones who represetn the future of the team. We won’t win many games 5 on 4
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
You mentioned his two turnovers but you blamed the loss on pure speculation, not facts.
It is a FACT that we were in position to win the game when Miller made 2 turnovers in a row with 1:34 left in the game.
You speculate that we lost the game because Miller didn’t play more. That is what you want to believe to excuse Miller’s last minute mistakes that actually lost the game. It is not fact, just your wishful thinking – pure speculation. His turnovers when we were in a position to win are fact. The Miller fan-boys find excuses for every mistake he makes, every shot he misses, every offense foul when drives the lane in a 1 on 2 (or 3) iso. The Miller fan-boys find excuses for everything he does.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 17, 2010 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
over the 16:40 period it took to close the 17 point deficit
Miller was running the offense for 14 of the 17 points needed to make up the gap. That is also a fact and that is worth something. I responded to you above about this whole issue.
You are turning your dislike of Miller into dislike of me, not cool man.
People get the way they do because people are constantly attacking him like he has done something wrong from Roy to Tominhawaii. Those that appreciate his skillset in turn get defensive.
I could see trading Miller, not certain it is right choice, but Brandon maneuvering for it and attacking Miller publically repeatedly has made me defensive about him.
I did not really even mean this post to be all that contoversial on the player front. I began prepping a post about how Nate’s choices hurt us in the Boston game that did not feature Miller at all in fact, decided against posting it. After watching that Dallas game and wondering why nate was even subbing at all at that point of the game and then seeing how Dre reacted when coming off the floor, it made me go back and look at the numbers.
First thing I did was look at all the plays that occured between the time Dallas took the largest lead to the time we tied it up at 91 and found that our production over that time was far higher with Miller on the floor than with Miller on the bench. I went back and rewatched the stretch of the game prior to his benching and determined that he was keying tnat run and decided to write it up and bag on Nate for a bad move.
I do not think anybody did particularly badly during that stretch without Miller, we were just far more productive with him in over that stretch.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
You are turning your dislike of Miller into dislike of me, not cool man.
Not at all, but I do dislike it (a lot) when people put words in my mouth so they can argue about things I never said (especially when they are false statements that I would also argue against). I thought it was poor form when you told people in another thread to disregard what I wrote simply because in your opinion I didn’t like Miller. But that is your right, even if I thought it was a bogus argument.
Unless I’m intentionally being sarcastic (which is hopefully obvious) or joking, I think my comments are well-reasoned. You may not agree with them (this is not a science – I don’t expect anyone here to always be right) but I believe they are well reasoned. I certainly invite and appreciate debate on the comments I make (but not on things I never said). After 40 years of watching this team I might even be less emotional than the average fan when it comes to looking at all sides of a player. I’ve written many times on how much I respect Miller’s talents and strengths. But unlike some fans, I also see some obvious flaws and why those have kept him from getting some of the recognition in the league he’s said he deserved but never got.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Dec 17, 2010 5:26 PM PST up reply actions
This post is spot on.
It was the wrong move. We knew it sitting on the couch. Andre knew it standing on the floor. Wesley knew it (he headed toward the bench before being told he was staying in). The only people who seemed not to know it were Brandon Roy and Coach McMillan. Terrible. And even from the bench, Andre was vocal and frustrated, knowing the heat they’d built on that run was just vanishing into the air. Super bummer.
Sure, Andre can’t shoot the ball so well. But he is very conscious of what’s going on out there. And that run was the EXACT time you go against conventional wisdom and play what’s working out there. If Nate sat Andre because he felt Andre wasn’t passing it to Roy enough, that’s garbage. Roy has proven a lot in his short career, but lately all he’s proving is that he can’t be depended on.
Side note: the Blazers traded away their most inconsistent players to bring in Marcus and Wesley. Now other players are stepping in to fill that need. Great.
Not so sure he benched Miller because he wasn't passing to Roy enough
Roy didn’t play most of the 4th (Mac must realize the deal)……..he was inserted with approx. 2-3 minutes left. At first I was sort of pissed that Roy was inserted into the game, after sitting so long, thinking that Mac was gonna do run his typical Iso sets that we’ve been watching fail.
Then I realized that Roy was simply playing decoy.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
thinking that Mac was gonna do run his typical Iso sets that we’ve been watching fail.
The 2 plays where Andre turned it over (or was fouled, depending on your POV) were not that much different than what Nate has typically done in late game situations for the past 4 years. But instead of Roy or Outlaw handling the ball, it was Miller. Dallas was prepared for the play because they know that Portland doesn’t really have any other sets that they run in these must-score situations
One-on-one play works when you’ve got a superior offensive player who can elevate and get his own shot (old Brandon, Travis) Nate has relied to heavily his player’s athleticism for years, and I don’t think he has a “smarter, not harder” counter strategy that’s going to win many games against decent NBA defenses
Time for a coaching change. All of the players would benefit, even “new” Roy
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I'm on board with a coaching change
I’ve been somewhat of a Nate supporter, but have began to think a coaching change is needed, if not for a change in strategy, at least for a change in voice. The team just doesn’t seem to be playing all that hard for him, or at least on a consistent basis. I do think the team has problems that a simple coaching change isn’t going to fix, but you have to start somewhere.
And I thought one was a foul and one was a turnover.
Both sucked, haha.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
Both sucked
but remember Dre dropped 52 on Dallas last year, so they were ready for him this time around, and the Mavs were taking LMA away as well
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I thought Roy's usage was actually pretty good last night
given his physical limitations.
This post has nothing to do with how bad anybody did versus Miller. The team did well when he was out, they were just humming with him in.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
I take far more issue with Nate pulling Batum in the 2nd qtr.
Pulling Miller for a quick spell was a 50/50 judgment call. The team needed three point shooters to catch up. Pulling Batum when he is balling is a no no.
Why does Nate DO THAT!!!
Totally agree with the original post! I like Miller (though I think it’s time we start looking to the future and get a younger PG who can also shoot 3’s) but whoever it is, you don’t take them out of the game when their having a huge impact. I’ve seen Nate do that to Batum time and time again, occasionally right after he hits a 3. He’s done it to Rudy too though not as often. I can’’t fault Miller for bad play when he finally comes back into the game when he’s been smoldering on the bench getting angrier and angrier…I’d be pissed off too!
There was one game I recall where Batum had like 8 of our 10 points
in the first quarter and hit the bench.
There was a game last year where we were really struggling on offense. 5 consecutive substitutions came for the last guy to make a shot.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
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