What To Do With Greg Oden?
HoopsHype.com has been one of my favorite websites for years. As such, I'm thrilled to link up my first of some occasional columns for them. Editor Jorge Sierra tasked me with answering the question: What should the Blazers do with Greg Oden?
I touch on Larry Miller, Rich Cho, Brandon Roy's health, the risk/reward assessment at play here and the question of franchise identity.
-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter
over 1 year ago
Ben Golliver
181 comments
3 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Me three.
The worst case scenario is not the franchise paying Oden and not having him return. That’s the situation we’ve been living with for the past 4 years.
The worst case scenario is the Blazers cutting ties with him and having him become the player that everyone expects (or at least 75% of that) with another team. There’s a reason every other fan base in the league is salivating at the idea of signing Oden. His value has never been lower, but the upside is still there.
This argument about cost would hold merit for a lot of franchises. But I strongly believe that Paul Allen is going to take on the cost and roll the dice one last time.
And I think that Greg has been supported by the fans at every turn. We’re soccer moms. We’d go crazy if he scored 2 points in a game. In my eyes at least, the Blazers have always been more akin to family than a bottom line business. And Greg is family.
That’s my two cents at least.
by Neama on Nov 21, 2010 1:15 PM PST up reply actions 10 recs
Indeed.
Why is he a great risk for other teams like OKC to take, but it’s a horrible one for us?
#52
by Roybot on Nov 21, 2010 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 7 recs
Because the roll of the dice doesn't necessarily cost somebody else $8.8M for one rehab season, at the end of which he can walk as a UFA.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Nov 21, 2010 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Even If he takes the qualifing offer
It does NOT mean we cannot extend him before the the year is over. What is more likely to happen is he signs a deal and we match it. It would be a complete disaster to let him walk. Even if he plays only 3-4 productive years for another franchise where are we going to get another center?
It would not be a complete disaster to let him walk. He’s played 82 games in 4 years and only averaged like 24 mpg because of foul trouble.
He is, simply put, not worth anywhere near 8.8 mil to any NBA franchise next year— he’s coming off his 2nd microfracture surgery and won’t be ready for opening day.
long twos FTL
Yes it would be a complete disaster
IF he plays productive minutes for one of our competitors. How can anyone say he is done? 22years old. This guy will likely play 10 years.
I just think offering 9 mil to a guy who’s played less than 2000 minutes in 4 years and will probably not be ready for opening day would be insane.
long twos FTL
Good money chasing bad...
The part that bugs me the worst is that it would effectively mean bye bye to Pryz.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Keep the old injury prone center instead of the young injury prone center?
Hasn’t he had like 6 season ending injuries?
by Nick Van Excellent on Nov 21, 2010 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
Yep. Too much downside, not enough upside.
Oden is already at the end of his career, IMO. Time for everyone to move on.
I wonder how a potential lockout effects the likelihood of him accepting it?
He would probably rather sign a longer contract, no?
#52
Pro sports are full of risks vs benefits
Oden’s skill set is very rare. Not just hard to find but damn near impossible to replace. If Allen feels that he can spend the 9million or sign him to a three year deal I am all for it. Look how this team struggles with defending the paint and generating points when the pressure is on. Even if he only averages 12 points a game he gives you the ability to dump the ball into at point blank range and draw fouls on the other teams bigs. Not to mention how we he blocks out and sucks up rebounds against any lineup anyone can throw at him. He still remains the ONYLY hope this team has to be a contender.
by all accounts Greg has turned the corner
his diet is better, he’s making better choices. He’s gown up, mostly out of the public’s eye, in the last 12+ months
those past reports of drunken-dancing at clubs have dried up. To bring them up now as evidence that Portland should cut ties with Oden is…irresponsible journalism. If the reporters have fresh material about Greg’s more-recent indiscretions, then let them come forward. Don’t take Canzano-like trips down negative-memory lane
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Nov 21, 2010 10:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The logic of the game is this, I think:
1. Blazers offer $8.8M/1 to retain rights.
2. Oden shops. If he doesn’t get a offer averaging $8.8M for multiple years, he signs the Blazers 1 year offer and then rehabs for a year before becoming a UFA.
3. If Oden gets an offer of more than $8.8M per year for multiple years, the Blazers have the option of matching that or they wave goodbye and get nothing.
Oden’s ACTUAL value, in my estimation, is something in excess of what Theo Ratliff got from the Lakers (a couple million, I think) and what Marcin Gortat got after shopping in free agency — MLE or so. To keep him for a year, the Blazers will have to pay a premium over his actual value (due to the CBA-specified size of the Qualifying Offer).
The Blazers will face either A. One year of Oden at a premium price while he rehabs before becoming a UFA at the end of the season; or B. Multiple years of Mr. Question Mark at more than $8.8M per year — a WAAAAAAY bigger role of the dice than a rational GM should be making.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
also Cho has to contend
with the extra baggage Miller brings to the party. I would be surprised if this group can ever be on the same page, let alone bite the bullet on the Oden saga.
I have a bad feeling that Miller has too much power here. (as in PA’s micromanaging puppet.) It’s PA’s money, but lets be honest about the facts. Oden is a huge gamble and continuing to hold your team, coaches, and Gm hostage to his health is not responsible. The future is now…..time to start perusing your identity. At the time, drafting Oden was the right thing to do. Now the right thing to do is cut your loses and move on.
Gee, I think I just talked myself into trading Oden before the deadline. That’s the quickest way I know of to move on.
sounding disgusted ….Well I’m still upset that they didn’t trade Oberto when they had the chance.
"You play good defense and let your offense generate from that. You will find that success of your offense, is proportional to the extent of your defensive diligence." Jack Ramsey philosophy (it works)
The Blazers will face either A. One year of Oden at a premium price while he rehabs before becoming a UFA at the end of the season; or B. Multiple years of Mr. Question Mark at more than $8.8M per year
Or option C, multiple years of Oden at less than 8.8 mil/year with an incentive-based contract where he could exceed 9 mil in a yearly salary if he can hit his escalators (basically, stay healthy and productive)
The QO does not necessarily have to lead directly to UFA status in July 2011; if it looks like it’s going to (e.g. Blazers and Oden are not coming to agreement on a long-term deal) then Cho will still have the option to trade Oden to the highest bidder after Greg’s completed his rehab (post lockout, before July 2011)
That’s much less risk than the doomsday scenario you’re presenting
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Nov 21, 2010 10:47 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think, given the premium price for centers, he's a good risk for anyone
Especially Portland, given what you bring up about the UFA risk. But even OKC, it they sign him for 4 years/$40 million, is tying an awful lot of cap space up with a guy who can’t stay healthy. I feel bad for Greg, and health permitting, he would have been an all star. But at this point the best case is a greatly diminished Oden, the worst (and judging from his career, likely) case scenario is a mountain of cap space wearing a suit on the bench.
Kevin Durant won me over when he went Rocky IV on Russia this summer.
by blazeraddict on Nov 21, 2010 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
$8.8 million means NOTHING to Paul Allen..
Conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to our owner so you can forget about the theory that it isn’t a wise investment. Paul can and will take gambles as we have seen in the past. For every argument that the QO is a risk, what about the investment that they’ve already made? The #1 pick in 2007, $19 million and time invested in rehab. If it’s me, I want a return on my investment in the form of seeing him on the floor for MY TEAM and NOT somebody elses. I am not rehabbing the guy so somebody else will reap the benefits. Paul Allen can more than afford the risk. Besides, when you look at the future at center, I’d rather gamble on a young 22 year old than the two guys we have now whom are headed for retirement and unrestricted free agency. History has shown that players reject the QO anyway so that they can sign a loner term deal. IMO, a three year $18-$24 million deal laced with incentives would benefit all involved. Extending Oden an offer isn’t as big of a risk as some think. In fact, not extending him is the bigger risk. When asked on TV last week if, “as a GM would you offer Greg Oden a contract”, Steve Kerr replied WITHOUT HESITATION, “absolutely”. Teams can’t wait to have a chance to steal Oden away from us even with the risk that it involves. NBA people are smart enough to realize that players like Oden are a dying breed and they will jump at the chance to get him, regardless of the risk. That says it all to me. If people around the league are willing to take the risk, the blazers should be to. If it’s not the blazers, there will be some team out there taking a chance on him and I would be willing to bet that they overpay to get him.
Don't forget to double it up with the Blazers in luxury tax...
And yes, the Vulcans are whining about luxury tax, just like everybody else.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
What you are actually proposing is that the Blazers sink another $8.8M + the 19.3 already sunk = $28.1M
to pay for one year of rehabilitation for a guy that has played 82 career games and couldn’t get back from a “6 month” injury in the same leg as the microfractiure in 11 months…
It makes no sense at all. It’s the mentality of a crazed granny stuffing another $500 in quarters into the slot machine that has already eaten her social security checks for the past year…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Nov 21, 2010 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That said, I fully expect the Blazers to do the wrong thing and continue to chase the great white whale...
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Into a big black hole...
I’m not sure. I think Cho will make the smart move. I think his “logical” mind will appeal to Allen. They both have the engineering background.
I don’t think Miller will win out on this one. And really, who knows what Miller thinks. He is just the PR guy. He’s not going to throw Oden under the bus at this point. That would be sheer stupidity.
The Blazers really don’t have to do anything for awhile.
It seems they will see how things go. How well Oden recuperates/rehabs and decide when they HAVE to.
Maybe Cho will be able to pick up Mark Gasol.
That would be nice.
Or even Kevin Love…Love may want to move back home…get a chance to play for a team that wins…or will win more if he is on the team.
Maybe the Blazers will trade Joel’s expiring contract + for Love? Joel will be able to go home and so will Love.
Wonder how the CBA negotiations will play into all of this????!!!
Don't average down.
Actually, in this case it’s not averaging down, but up, for a risky asset that has just become insanely risky. With stocks, as the risk goes up the price goes down. The opposing argument, as many have said, is that the rarity of the asset justifies the gamble but surely at some point one must say enough is enough. Many stocks start out very risky but gradually become less risky as they execute their plan, but this stock (Oden) seems to be actually going backwards. Another opposing argument is that we’ll be embarrassed if another speculator (team) picks him up and gets lucky but my counter to that is: that depends on what we do with the money that would have been spent on Oden. Losers never want to sell a stock no matter how far it’s gone down because they can’t admit they’ve been wrong. Winners ask: could the money tied up in this loser stock be better deployed in a different stock? Would it be better for my portfolio? So that’s my question to the more knowledgable bedgers. If we let Oden go, what then? Even if Oden eventually succeeds somewhere else, will we be better off because of the flexibility it gives us, because it allows us to focus on a new plan?
My basketball knowledge is pretty low but I know a thing or two about risk vs. reward. Back to lurk mode.
by thaisteve on Nov 21, 2010 7:18 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
dont go back to lurk mode. this is exactly right.
i just haven’t heard anything we could buy with that 8.8mill that approaches greg’s potential or fits our need.
here’s another way to look at it for perspective.if greg came in this next year, even with his now extensive injury history, he’d likely still be a top 10 pick-that’s pretty safe to say. And, the blazers have consistently shelled 3M to buy picks from 20-40. Isn’t it worth 3x the investment to take a flyer on a top 10?
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
that depends on what we do with the money that would have been spent on Oden
Portland is already over the cap, so not paying Oden doesn’t free up any extra money to spend that they wouldn’t also have if they paid Greg
It could be said that “if the Blazers don’t sign Oden in June then they could afford to resign Przybilla” but I’ve never seen these two players as being mutually exclusive re: Portland’s plans—even after Camby was extended. Why not have extra depth at the 5, if the players are in agreement to remain in Portland? Given the health history of the 3 players, it makes sense to keep them on the roster, especially considering Marcus can swing to PF and play alongside Greg or Joel
If Paul Allen can’t afford to keep players around like Oden and Przybilla, then we’re looking at years of mediocrity, regardless
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
When you needed to sign Sean Marks to play center
Then why would you even think about letting any of them go?
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
Thanks Nima, 24larue and ict,
Thanks to your kind answers the penny has dropped. This isn’t stock picking, where there’s always another standard of living changing opportunity if you know how to look. I grossly understated the scarcity of the asset that is Greg Oden. If you are right about Oden’s potential reward being worth the risk given his scarcity, then I committed the common investor mistake of making an emotional decision. My mindset is to, first, preserve my capital. Mistakes are fine but limit them to small amounts. And always look for what’s wrong with a stock. Find one thing and that’s it, cross it off the watchlist. There’s always more than one cockroach. I guess my point is that even if I had a billion dollars, I’m probably not cut out to be the owner of a modern-day professional sports team. Or a GM.
I even
begrudge having to pay the 15th guy at the end of the bench hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Then it's a good thing you aren't Paul Allen
:-)
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
Oh, and nima is right
Don’t go back to lurk mode.
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
Thanks,
but be careful what you wish for. lol
What did I wish for?
If you tend toward being negative, there’s enough of that around right now that a little more won’t make any difference. If you’re an optimist, it never hurts to have a few more of those.
If you have a propensity for causing trouble, so do I. Probably 80% of the time my tongue is at least partly in my cheek. If you tend to be sarcastic, no problem either. (If you don’t like sarcasm, be glad that I turn most of mine on myself when online). If you don’t like Batum, get out of here. And if you like everything I have to say, go get yourself checked by a doctor.
Did I miss anything that I might have just wished for? I don’t think so. So yes, stick around.
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
Miami
just lost Haslem until probably February but Woj says Riley has shown little interest. There must be something wrong with the guy.
Correction
I meant that there must be something wrong with Dampier, not Haslem, but the thought didn’t make it to my fingers.
Agree completely.
Ben wrote a interesting piece, but I certainly don’t agree with his opinion.
"I don’t read Blazersedge every day because the comments would make me too depressed." ~ Rich Cho
by thenatural007 on Nov 21, 2010 5:27 PM PST up reply actions
I don't have any problem with GO fulfilling his potential for another team
I wish him the best of luck with the rest of his career. I hope he reaches the level that many hoped he would even if it’s not here with us. However, there are sometimes where you gotta do what you gotta do even if you know you aren’t gonna like the outcome.
i think i disagree.
the worst case scenario is greg accepting the QO and using most of the year to rehab only to come out and show just enough promise to pique interest the next year. And then sign with, say, Cleveland or Indiana where he has ties and would be guaranteed big minutes and lower expectations.
We’re left footing the bill for the rehab and having our “kid” by your analogy walk out on his family. THAT is worse.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
Totally agree!
Which is why the right approach is to let him become UFA this year and work to get a reasonable, incentive-based, multi-year deal done this offseason.
by 52therim on Nov 22, 2010 8:39 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t totally agree with Ben either. I wouldn’t tender the QO, but I’d have discussions about a 2 year deal with a team option (at an annual salary less than the QO) for a 3rd, preferably heavily incentively If Greg turned it down and chose to go elsewhere, so be it.
long twos FTL
I don't understand all the QO stuff completely
but if we don’t tender the QO, he is basically gone, cause he will be a UFA, right? Since he probably has no desire to be here anymore after all the stuff he’s dealt with.
#52
They can still chase him, but on an equal basis with everyone else and no right to match salary.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
if we don’t tender the QO, he could sign here or he could sign anywhere else. However, if we do tender the QO and he signs it, he could just leave a year later if that was his plan all along. If he doesn’t want to sign with us long term, the only way he could would be if he signed an offer sheet somewhere else (a la Millsap) and we matched it.
Do we really want him here if he has no desire to be here?
long twos FTL
I want him to be happy, of course.
If he can get past the injuries and have some great seasons (I still believe he can), I think he wouldn’t mind being here.
Obviously he probably wants a fresh start, but it would be really awesome if he could turn it around here with the Blazers.
#52
That's the way I'd play it, too...
“We love you, Greg, but $8.8M/1year doesn’t make sense to us. We’ll let you become a UFA and here’s our offer: $10M/2 years. Don’t sign a bigger offer elsewhere until you talk to us.”
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Nov 21, 2010 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You are very diplomatic Ben
The political dynamic is “muddled” is a polite euphemism for Paul Allen running the team into the ground. My words of course. And Larry Miller is the perfect foil, playing kingmaker Don King to the ruin of Greg Oden and Rich Cho. Maybe that’s a little unfair. A little, but not much. The moment they trade Greg’s contract and a couple of others to bring in a bona-fide new baller and extend McMillan’s contract, that’s the moment I take it all back and tell myself what an idiot I was for doubting Paul Allen. We shall see.
I'm with you, 'cept I see Miller more as Paul Allen's puppet...
The way he burned KP was disgusting and illuminating.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
KP and Penn were after Miller's job, with LaGarie as their puppet-master
for Larry, it was fight fire with fire. In less than 12 months KP went from being Allen’s golden gut to persona non grata in Paul’s baseline seats. If you want to think that Miller torpedoed Pritchard, then go ahead and believe that.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Allen burned KP
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
KP and Penn burned PA
when they, with LeGarie’s help, snowed Paul to get Penn a raise. Their mistake was in thinking that one of the richest men in the world wouldn’t be willing and eager to burn them back, and that he wouldn’t have a lot more napalm at his disposal.
"I told him, ‘We will get through this, then shock the world.’ He got a kick out of that,'' Miller said. "We will get through this and shock the world ...''
Unfortunate analogy.......
And Larry Miller is the perfect foil, playing kingmaker Don King to the ruin of Greg Oden and Rich Cho.
Nothing personal, but I find this to be a deeply troubling quote. What has Larry Miller done to deserve an analogy to Don King? I can’t think of a single thing. In fact, the only similarities between Miller and King is that they are both involved in sports and they are both African-American.
I don’t know you, and I’m not suggesting that using this analogy is a reflection of some underlying attitude or assumption about race. I am merely trying to point out that I think we all need to be careful about what we say. Even when our intentions are good, sometimes we inadvertently say things that can be perceived by others as having a racial component. Because Miller and King have so little else in common, I think this is such a case.
Again, I am not trying to “accuse” you of anything, and I am trying not to make this personal. I am simply trying to do a little bit of “consciousness raising” as we used to call it back in the sixties and seventies.
by upper left corner on Nov 22, 2010 6:03 AM PST up reply actions
I knew when I wrote someone like you would come to the cultural rescue
and to Larry Miller’s rescue. Maybe while you were busy raising your consciousness in the seventies you forgot to rub shoulders with your fellow man. For my part I was the first generation in the deep south to be bussed and I was a personal participant in the desegregation of the community, not a television witness. I was baptized into the racism of the times and by you I’m excommunicated into the new age wilderness. Fortunately, people don’t really need morally ambiguous sermons to be able to recognize a crooked nail. And the TrailBlazer management is looking pretty crooked these days. Save your insinuations of racism for a time and place where’s it fits.
“someone like you”
Meaning someone who thinks language matters, and that all of us need to think about our assumptions?
Again, I don’t know you, and you don’t know me. Even your description of your experience leaves it quite ambiguous as to whether you were a white kid who was bussed or a black kid who experienced segregation and the first efforts to end it.
As for my experience, I am the proud grandson of a suffragette grandmother. My mother lived through the first integration of base housing at the Pensacola Naval Base in the fifties and was ostracized by her fellow whites for choosing to live with black families, My father played professional baseball at the time Jackie R broke the color barrier, and he was an Air Force Lieutenant stationed in Texas during the mid fifties who witnessed first hand multiple examples of “southern hospitality” towards blacks. He believed deeply in the importance of civil rights.
In any case, if your point is that you think Larry Miller is a crook or a con-man. I think it would help avoid misunderstanding if you explained your reasoning. I am not coming to Miller’s defense, I haven’t ever met him, and I really have little opinion about him other than that he is reputed to be a decent guy. I have no basis for weighing in on Ben’s suggestion that Miller is trying to exert too much influence. I simply don’t know.
My point is that if you are going to make the comparison you did, you should give some basis for your thinking so that people don’t think you are talking about skin pigment when you are intending to talk about character. I am reluctant to impugn someone’s character without convincing evidence.
Furthermore, I am not particularly apologetic about thinking all of us, myself included, should be careful about our assumptions, particularly in the current climate of political and cultural backlash against Obama, where our President is being accused of a variety of sins of which he is clearly innocent.
by upper left corner on Nov 22, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You keep asking for explanations and reasoning
It sounds like somebody owes you something or your entitled to something; so of course you don’t feel apologetic if you always feel like a victim. It would be better you look at your own assumptions instead of accusing me of racism.
He isn't accusing you of racism
He is saying (correctly) that your original comment could have been misunderstood as being racist. He is saying (correctly), that if you do not want to be misunderstood in that way, then you may want to clarify your statement. There are people who will take everything they can the wrong way. He is saying (also correctly) that it is always wise for us to be careful of what we say, and I would add that it is especially the case online. When you have that large of an audience reading what you write, somebody is always going read something different from what you intended.
ULC isn’t accusing you of anything, he’s giving you advice. It’s your business what you do with that advice.
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
Never give advice.
A wise man won’t need it
and a fool won’t heed it.
by MiledAnimal on Nov 22, 2010 11:14 PM PST up reply actions
Thank you
You did a very nice job of summarizing the intent and content of my comment. I appreciate the public service ;-)
by upper left corner on Nov 23, 2010 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
I hope you read ictoagsn's comment above
I think that comment does a very good job of summarizing my intentions and my concerns.
I explicitly stated in my original comment that I was not accusing you of anything.
I truly do not understand how you think I am claiming to be the victim of anything.
I am simply suggesting to you that your original comment left an impression that you may not have intended. If you want to avoid leaving that impression, then explaining your thinking would be helpful. If you choose not to do so, then it will be up to each reader to draw their own conclusions.
by upper left corner on Nov 23, 2010 2:47 PM PST up reply actions
Right on target, Ben.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Agreed
But not helpful. If the goal is profitability the answer is let him walk, if the goal is trophy we need to be all in with him. I vote trophy.
by doomsdaymachine on Nov 21, 2010 2:29 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
This, unfortunately, is how I see things as well
I’d love to see Oden do well here, even if only to build back a modicum of trade value, but at this point it has been 4 years with a handful of good games. He cannot be counted on as a contributor, much less a core piece, of anything the Blazers do going forward. I think a change of scenery would do him well as a player and a person.
Larry Miller is the archetype for slimy corporate executives. He let KP twist, he dodges legit questions with a chuckle and a half answer, all in all he just rubs me wrong. Unfortunately, he seems to be the Vulcan’s gem in management, so he’ll be here for a while.
Kevin Durant won me over when he went Rocky IV on Russia this summer.
it may be the smart move
but I don’t see the Blazers cutting ties with Oden yet. As a fan, I would stop supporting the Blazers if they did. He’s already successfully recovered from microfracture surgery. And no matter what you think, we are not going to get another center with his ability any time soon. Marcus Camby is great, but he’s 36. Joel is my favorite player on the team, but he is 31 and has his own health issues.
The Blazers have to do a better job of keeping him healthy. The training staff might not be directly at fault for these injuries, but clearly something isn’t working with the current approach. I was once again flabbergasted that he wasn’t wearing knee pads during his workouts with Joel. Um, FYI- he’s got knee issues guys. A healthy diet, proper exercise, and spending more time with his teammates also need to be enforced.
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
I think this the exact reason why Miller said what he did
I don’t see the Blazers cutting ties with Oden yet. As a fan, I would stop supporting the Blazers if they did.
I think many fans would feel the same way and that’s why Miller came out with the public support. We still got the whole season ahead of us. I doubt we see Oden in a Blazer uni again, but no sense in angering fans til it’s absolutely necessary
whether it happens now or at the end of the season
I guarantee there will be a huge fallout.
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
Oh, I agree
But if they can control the timing of the fallout, I’m sure they’d rather focus on the season and let the Oden ordeal play out at a later time.
Plus
it’s a lot easier to explain to fans why Oden had to be let go if the team makes it to the playoffs without GO yet again
Oden was raw BEFORE he had to take two full seasons off...
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
yes but still managed to be an impact player
BIG impact. what do you think he can do AFTER he learns the nba game?
Oden should be spending more time with Camby
that’s a guy who knows about taking care of his body and eating right.
"I don’t think it’s lost. I don’t think it’s lost. It’s adversity and something that we have to deal with. We wish it wasn’t like this, but it is."
-Brandon Roy 11/18/2010 as told to CBSSports.com blog
Oden is damaged goods.
Ben’s article brings up a valid point that Odens original patella surgery should have had a 6 month recovery period. 11 months later??? Then microfracture, now rehabbing both injuries at the same time? Even if Oden does bounce back should this team really put things on hold once again for Oden? Now if this team is willing to go over the salary cap and pay the penalty then go for it. But with the Vulcans demanding this team turn a profit and wanting to get there by cutting expenses, waiting for Oden once again dooms this team to mediocrity. Which way will they go? That is the question….
Good Piece Ben...
…and I’d say so because initially I thought I disagreed with you (I Still May). But my initial thoughts about keeping Oden was that it was to the franchises best interest to keep Oden, if at all reasonably possible, and if you thought he had any chance of becoming even a decent N.B.A. center.
But after reading your piece and thoughts you have at least given me pause to step back and rethink. I don’t know if it has as of yet changed my mind…but it has at least got me thinking.
So I’d say very well written and thought out.
I guess my hope with Oden is that any decisions made are made from a perspective of what is the reality…and divorced as much as possible from the potential emotion of the situation.
Either way. I don’t want Oden kept…because of fears of what he might become, nor do I want him given up on, because of fatigue of dealing with his reality.
To me you must try to let reality dictate your decisions. So it seems to me that if Oden has a good to reasonable chance of being a good center…even in limited capacity? Then why would you NOT want to pursue that?
Yes our expectations, and our memories and all the baggage attached to what Greg Oden was suppose to be, and what has happened can cloud the discussion, but if you try to clear the slate…doesn’t it come down to defining the asset and then attaching value vs. cost?
But still your piece has at least got me to realize that moving on from Oden had a Plus Column…and that keeping Oden has a negative column…
But I’m still in the process I think of determining what I think is the best move…much of which might be dictated by forces and decisions out of The Blazers hands.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Nice article, Ben: But one caveat
I don’t think Mr. Jenson (who is not a doctor, let alone a radiologist or orthopod) was saying it was a HUGE defect in his cartilage when he said 9-iron. To me it sounded like a just a poor analogy to the shape/contour of the defect. He then went on to compare it to peeling through an orange skin. You know what surprises me the most about all this? Neither orthopod involved in this case has been interviewed to my knowledge. We hang on Mr. Jenson’s every word but we don’t have an actual record from those that are qualified to speak on the matter. That’s interesting in and of itself.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
I also agree w/ Ben
As they say, “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”. I don’t think we can keep waiting and waiting and waiting for what Oden MIGHT be able to give us one day at the center position. We need to bring someone in who can be productive NOW!
Yep
I really feel for Oden and wasn’t willing to give up on him until he came back and had a chance to play for a while, stay moderately healthy and show what he can do. Unfortunately, now he’s not even getting to play a minute on the court this season due to another surgery. It’s tragic but just seems like it’s time to let go … either trade or draft another center and move on. There’s always a chance he’ll come back to haunt us later but I’m over waiting on one person.
One might argue that cutting Oden or letting him walk
Would BE the emotional response. He responded fantastically to the first MF and he is 22 years old. This is not a 30 yr old with little or no upside.
True. He's a 50-year-old with little or no upside.
His knees are, anyway, which is effectively the same thing.
I always had the impression that his knees were the same age as the rest of him
But what do I know?
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
what about your face?
Lucas, then a Blazers assistant, walked past and said that nobody trash-talked like Garnett during his career. "Back then," Lucas said, "it was only a $50 fine for punching a guy in the mouth."
#52
by bustabucket on Nov 21, 2010 4:02 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Ha!
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
this is a one-sided trade analysis
This seems less about what’s best for the team and more about a fan trying to decide whether to invest his feelings hoping for Oden to return. To the fan, having Oden around but not healed is a “burden”.
To the team, they pay him a salary, but unless we can do something else with it, the “burden” is minimal. Ben talks about salary cap flexiblity next year in regards to Oden’s qualifying offer, but even without it, there is no cap flexibility (even under the current CBA…). We have $50+ mil in committed salary, but only 9 players, not including Andre Miller’s player option. Unless we’re willing to decline that option, there is no cap space. So the opportunity cost of Oden’s QO is the roster spot. Not much of a “burden” and a minor bit to gamble on the chance that Oden comes back a quality player.
The real question will be when other teams call with offers. THAT is when the decision about Oden will need to be made, and it will be based on the specific offers. Too often we get these one-sided half trade analyses on the message boards. Should we or should we not trade player X? But we forget to consider … trade for what? Josh McRoberts? Emeka Okafor? Chris Paul?
Obviously, the answer matters, but we forget that part. We tend to look at players as having a fixed “value”, that will likely return equal value in trade, but that’s not how it works at all. Even if we believe we can measure players that way, the marketplace for trades is limited and value isn’t fixed. It’s defined by whatever the small set of teams with a need that matches your piece is willing to pay. Sometimes it’s substantially less “value”, sometimes more.
So the question, should we “cut bait” on Oden, isn’t even the right question. The question is what will other teams offer, and which option is most valuable to the team going forward?
by sanjait on Nov 21, 2010 1:44 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Team option, I think.
not including Andre Miller’s player option.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Didn't the salary cap post show his value as
the value of his expiring contract; nearly 8 million dollars. That’s a nice trade chip, or a big chunk of change in the owners pocket. Oh, and the salary is receiving insurance payments I believe. That’s a lot of value if you’re looking for a great new player to add.
Completely agree w/ this.
All of the endless debate about whether Oden is or will be worth $8.8 mil in a vacuum completely misses the point. The question is (a) is Oden worth that much to Portland, and (b) what’s the opportunity cost of spending that money on Oden?
Rebuilding is not an option. The Blazers are in “win now” mode for the next five years. They already have one max guy and one near max guy. They are going to be well over the cap for the foreseeable future. Anybody they sign is going to be with an exception, if they even still exist under the new CBA.
That means, even more so than other teams, the Blazers have a tremendous incentive to overpay their own FAs. There is no way to replace them with anywhere near the same level of talent.
Even if $8.8 mil sounds like a lot of money for a kid whose played 82 games in four years, that doesn’t matter. If you let Oden walk, you’re not replacing him, and you’re stuck w/ mediocrity for the next five years. Have fun being the Atlanta Hawks.
If you hold onto Oden, and he gets healthy, there’s still a chance (a decent chance, in fact) you can become a contender.
This is the hand the Blazers were dealt. You play the hand. It’s the only one you have.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
If Portland really is in "win now mode for the next five years," why would one bet the ranch on an often-injured Center who is little more than a raw talent when he IS on the floor?
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
The point is, we already made that bet
We bet on Oden when we drafted him. The question now isn’t whether we will bet the ranch, because it’s already done. Sunk cost. Now the questions are whether Paul Allen wants to spend $8.8 million for the option value of Oden’s potential for rehab, or if some other team offers us something else valuable for him.
The point is we get little or nothing by dumping Oden (barring a surprisingly good trade offer), so we aren’t betting anything important by keeping him.
First, Oden’s “raw talent” translated to a top ten PER last season in the 20 or so games he played. It’s not like he’s a project who’s never made a difference on the court. Just by being out there (healthy), he’s one of the best rebounding/defensive players in the league.
Second, who’s betting the farm? The whole point is that, as sanjait put it, the bet has been made. If you don’t retain Oden, there’s absolutely no way to replace him, and if you do retain him, there’s no opportunity cost (at least under the current CBA). If you think the Blazers can go find a decent center through the draft or free agency even though they’re over the cap, great – but they can still try to do that AND keep Oden. From a basketball standpoint, it’s a no risk proposition under the current CBA. The only cost is to Vulcan.
Now, if they’re going to draw a line in the sand and fail to sign Batum because Oden got a contract, it’s a different question. But as much lip service as these guys give to fiscal responsibility, they just gave $35 mil to an undrafted second year player who wouldn’t have gotten $20 from anyone else. So in the big picture, I doubt they’re sweating $8.8 mil (or even $17.6 after taxes).
But really, what’s plan B? Who’s going to play five for the Blazers in two years if not Oden? Will Przy or Camby still be out there kicking? Is a free agent available? You going to find a starting center in the late lottery or worse through the draft? These guys just ain’t easy to come by.
The Cavs had this situation with big Z early in his career. Couldn’t stay on the court, repeated surgeries, etc. He eventually settled down and became reliable. Locking Oden down with a reasonable contract and hoping he has the same luck beats the other available alternatives.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
You gotta know when to hold 'em
and when to fold ’em.
Know when to walk away,
Know when to run.
You don’t count Paul’s money
When Greg’s knee is on the table.
There’s still time to trade that bad card
For a better one.
if there are options to trade the card...
I’m sure the Blazers will consider them. That’s a different issue than just letting Oden walk. Because the Blazers are way over the cap, they would have limited opportunity to replace him in that scenario.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
What is the appeal of keeping him?
Everyone who is in support of Oden seems to think that if (or when in some people’s minds) Oden can actually come back healthy he will be able to realize this defensive anchor potential and be this franchise’s savior who will take them to the NBA finals. After having two microfracture surgeries he WILL NOT have the same explosiveness or potential as he did when the Blazers drafted him. He will not be the same player, and his upside that everyone is talking about will be significantly lower because both of his knees have had surgeries that historically have shown to hinder players in one way or another.
On another note, to those who want to keep Oden around, what is the tipping point for you? How many season ending injuries does he need to have before you are done with Oden? How many knee surgeries does he need to have before you feel like he isn’t worth the time anymore? How come three season ending injuries in four years because of three knee surgeries isn’t enough? Should we just keep him until he is at least 25 even if he can’t stay on the court ‘because he is still young’? I just don’t see the logic here. He won’t be the same player as we all had hoped because of the nature of the injury, and we have no reason to believe he will ever be healthy and be on the court.
okay,
but your point is based on the idea that Greg won’t be able to play at a high level again, which there is little reason to believe true. He made a full come back from one microfracture surgery and his knee ended up stronger after. Did you watch him at all in his second and third season? I believe his quickness and agility were both still there, he was easily dominating other centers. And we have never even seen him at 100 percent healthy.
You can go ahead and assume he won’t be able to play, but from what I’ve seen, he should be able to make a full recovery and he will still be only 23 years old. For him to stay healthy, some major changes need to be made.
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
Just curious
Where else will we be getting a solid starting center in a year or two considering that the team is over the luxury cap? Do these players just grow on trees? Or is the plan to play LMA 65 minutes a game?
Draft one
An overpriced, injury prone GO is not the answer
Kevin Durant won me over when he went Rocky IV on Russia this summer.
by blazeraddict on Nov 21, 2010 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
I didn’t realize Greg Oden was starting right now, or started many games at all within the last 4 seasons. And no, quality basketball players of any position do not grow on trees, centers included. With Pryz coming back, that should lighten the load on Camby which will give us defensive size and presence, albeit we lose an offensive option with Pryz on the court. Ideally, we can make a move in the next couple of years because we will have Miller and Camby off the books by then which would give us some flexibility. And we could draft another big guy with some potential and hope he grows into a productive player; just like we did with Greg Oden, except in this case it didn’t work.
With Roy out we have to play LMA big minutes right now because as sad as it is, he is our best player right now and we certainly won’t go anywhere if Roy is hurt, even if Oden is healthy.
where indeed!
Thats what I have been saying! If we were talking about a small forward its an entirely different discussion. Seven footers with coordination and skills are bloody rare! See former center prospects…Ha…Hill…Bumjtie Bumjtie…. well you know who I mean. Even IF they give Oden 10 million a year for 3 years thats only 5 million MORE than what NJ gave Travis Outlaw! 20 million dollars LESS than Toronto gave Bargnani( sorry can’t spell his name right). Truth is the money will probably go to some barely able to run and chew bubblegum scrub. That is really all that is out there for centers folks.
i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.
i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.
i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.
And furthermore on this topic,
i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.i disagree. i disagree. i disagree. i disagree.
We should keep Oden until the wheels absolutely fall off. Literally and figuartively.
by 1ofthe7 on Nov 21, 2010 2:39 PM PST via mobile reply actions 4 recs
20.5 games in 4 years
We should keep Oden until the wheels absolutely fall off. Literally and figuartively.
2 microfractures with no known trauma to his knees
1 exploded patella with no contact
1 hip surgery in 7th grade
Let’s be real here, the wheels have fallen off, his axle is broken, the transmission is stripped and he threw a rod.
by nikolokolus on Nov 21, 2010 5:02 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Fix It All the Time
Sounds about right…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
That's just the bandwagon
Greg’s still fine.
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
still fine?
in what way would you say he’s “still fine?”
by nikolokolus on Nov 21, 2010 11:47 PM PST up reply actions
In that, so far as is known, all his injuries are unrelated
In that his bone density is very high. It’s not like his bones are brittle. He came back from microfracture already. Even after that, he was a big difference maker. He knows what he’s dealing with here, he knows what he needs to do. The knee that had microfracture before has healed stronger. There’s every reason to believe that Greg will come back from this too. When the doctors are saying that they have checked everything they can think of, and can’t find any reason why he would keep getting hurt like this, that would indicate that these really are just freak injuries. Maybe there’s a little gnome running around inside his knees with a pair of scissors or something.
I should have said “will be fine”, though. He just had surgery!
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
This analysis misses a key part of what Larry Miller said
LM said that the Blazers would likely extend GO a qualifying offer if his rehab goes well. Obviously, some parts of his “rehab” are outside of Oden’s control, but much is under his control—to me, it’s plain, that the Blazers are signalling they will extend Oden if he puts in the work between now and June 30. He’s put in the work before…OTOH, he’s also, in past years, had a reputation for screwing around a bit.
This time, it’s different.
Obviously, if Oden’s rehab goes poorly, then perhaps it’s time to cut ties. And much of the “recrimination” has already occurred—KP is gone, Allen owns the team, and it’s unclear how much input anyone else (Nate, Miller) had in the decision. There no remaining scapegoat to drive out of town.
The other thing to think of: Sam Bowie, despite an aborted career in Portland, got turned into Buck Williams—essentially after a half-year of staying injury free (and one in which the Blazers went 39-43 and squeaked into the playoffs, only to be swept by you-know-who). What his trade value on the open market is at this point is unclear, but I suspect that some team would be willing to take a gamble on him were he to be offered.
At any rate, Ben—part of your analysis is correct: The Blazers need not commit to a decision now. Any advice that we as fans give the team should be subjected to the same limitation. Let’s talk about this in June.
Si equum mortuum flagellēs, non celerium currat.
—essentially after a half-year of staying injury free
Amazingly, Sam only played in 20 games that season and then was still traded to NJ for Buck
Then the next 4 years he never played fewer than 62 and topped out at 79
I always think of those numbers when I hear doubters saying that Greg is already washed up
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think the Blazers can only win a title with Oden
Thanks to Benedicts James and Bosh, the Blazers title window got a lot smaller.
Maybe the odds have dropped from 85% on draft day to 20% now.
I can’t figure out a way we have even a 20% chance of a title without Greg.
There’s no help at that position coming in the draft.
I don’t see any way putting Kevin Love on a Blazers roster, that doesn’t have Greg Oden on it has that 20% chance of a title. I don’t think a Kevin Love Blazers team can win the Western Conference.
20%?
Let’s say our chance are 20% with a healthy Oden … but there’s only a 10% chance we get that version.
I wouldn’t bet 8.8 million dollars on that chance and if he’s the only way we have a shot at a title, then it’s time to start over with new players and hope you get lucky in the draft or work out some trades.
I think we tend to underestimate
…how easy it is to win a championship. Not very many franchises win them.
Even if the stated odds are 20% with a healthy Oden and 10% that he even becomes healthy, I think that is still exponentially higher than starting over and hoping to get lucky.
I guess I disagree
because I think this team has a better shot at tanking and getting a franchise player than it does hanging on against the slimmest of hopes that Oden is going to materialize into something that you can build around.
In reality I think this team has zero chance of winning a championship as currently constructed (especially if Roy is on a permanent slide) and the ONLY hope it has is to reinvent itself … no matter how slim the odds even that route would be.
You could very well be right
In reality I think this team has zero chance of winning a championship as currently constructed (especially if Roy is on a permanent slide) and the ONLY hope it has is to reinvent itself
counting
championships at 85 % on unproven talent is where the problems is. I think it is more probable that your low point (20%) is actually the high point. If championships are on your mind, I’m afraid you’ll have to open another window.
"You play good defense and let your offense generate from that. You will find that success of your offense, is proportional to the extent of your defensive diligence." Jack Ramsey philosophy (it works)
logic must prevail over sentiment
It is too early to know what the best choice will be. We don’t know how GO’s rehab will proceed. We don’t know whether he will be mentally and physically sound. We don’t know whether the prospective benefits will be worth the cost and the risk. My hope is that Blazer management and fans will approach this from the perspective of logic and not sentiment. We should not keep GO for sentimental reasons; nor should we get rid of him because of emotion. We have a huge stake in the team making the right decision. In order to preserve GO’s value, we should encourage him to succeed, but we are not married to him and our team should not keep him out of sentiment. He is an adult, and our team must make a responsible adult decision.
by Blzr fan on Nov 21, 2010 3:41 PM PST via mobile reply actions
#52
When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.
"Batum, who stands 8 feet tall with a 9-foot wingspan and never makes mistakes..." - Posting and Toasting
I still believe in #52. See you soon, Greg!
The decision on Oden future is Paul Allen's to make
not Miller’s, or Cho’s
If Paul decides to cut bait with Greg, then he and/or Larry will let Rich know and the Blazer’s GM will spring into action and do what he’s paid to do. But it’s not Cho’s call—no matter what he may have said to reporters off the record—and no, I don’t feel sorry for him because Larry isn’t trying to take the decision out of Rich’s hands in the first place.
It’s above both of their pay scales
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Nov 21, 2010 4:01 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Correct analysis, I think.
Which is why the meddling owner is very apt to emotionally advance the QO rather than behaving logically about the situation.
They were still making Oden’s face a part of the marketing campaign THIS SEASON. Yo, Paul, let me introduce you to Nic Batum…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
I doubt Paul has much of anything to do with the marketing campaigns
There’s nothing “emotional” about extending the QO, it’s a trigger mechanism to continue dialogue about a future contract extension. If Portland and Oden come to an agreement on a long-term contract (following the lockout, and assuming his rehab goes well) then the QO dissolves into nothingness and the LTC goes into effect
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
But...but...isn't the CBA about to expire?
The current CBA is on its way out. There is an excellent chance that the ENTIRE 2011-12 season will not happen, but even in the best case, much of it is likely be lost.
Even if you don’t share my pessimism about the next season….doesn’t this uncertainty help support the case that the Blazers might be well served to wait and see what happens, re: Oden?
They would have to extend the qualifying offer latest June 30, the day the old CBA also expires (unless it gets extended by the owners 1 year in December, which is possible but not very likely). Oden couldn’t yet accept the QO if there was no new CBA deal in place in July (no new contracts could be signed for either draft picks or free agents), so it would sit there while negotiations about a new CBA are ongoing. It will be easier for both sides to predict come June (a) how far Oden is along in his rehab and (b) how the negotiations about a new CBA are ongoing and what a more likely compromise could look like to inform the situation.
This is probably the loophole the Blazers are looking for...
Extend the QO, which maximizes their potential rights to Oden’s future, while not having to actually make good on it pending the new CBA.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
This.
Any decision regarding QO won’t be made now but lot further down the road.
More immediate decision is do we trade Oden and if so, what is the value that we are looking for?
The cake was a lie.
More immediate decision is do we trade Oden and if so, what is the value that we are looking for?
Greg’s trade value is low until he proves he can return to the court. Portland can extend the QO in June, then when the lockout is over they can begin negotiations with Oden’s reps re: a long-term contract. (9-12 months after surgery Greg’s health status should be reasonably clear) If those negotiations break down, then Portland would begin shopping Oden. Ideally, he would have already played in some regular season games following the lockout, and his trade value would be re-established, and there would be renewed demand for him across the league.
I’m hopeful he’ll sign a LTC following the lockout and stay in Portland, but if the two sides agree to part ways then there would still be an opportunity to trade him then, and hopefully he’d be hypothetically dealt to an EC team, and not Boston or Miami
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I meant what kind of returns does the team have to receive to trade Oden?
Oden’s value isn’t completely in the toilets, since he has a mid-size expiring contract that is covered by insurance And, he does have potential to be good player if he ever becomes healthy, which a team like OKC or Phoenix might want gamble on. So, at what price point do we give up on gambling on his potential and look for something else? If it gets us a decent backup center, do we trade him? a first round pick?
The cake was a lie.
There are a lot of expiring contracts that will be made available in Feb
and Portland’s (Oden, Miller, Przy) are not as appealing as what other teams will have to offer. Does that mean that Greg, Andre or Joel won’t be traded at the deadline? No, but they aren’t going to be particularly in demand, unless a contending team loses their starting PG (in Dre’s case) and wants to overpay for him
If another team wants an expiring contract the size of Oden’s, they’ll be able to acquire one that’s attached to a player who can actually help them from Feb-April out on the floor. I suppose they could acquire Greg in order to sign him long term in hopes that he’ll stay healthy and be dominant in the future, but then they’ll have to assume the accompanying risks involved—which is something that Portland still appears to be willing to do, at this point in time.
I don’t expect GO to be traded during this season, and I don’t think there’s going to be an equitable trade offer for him presented before the deadline expires. Perhaps after the season (around draft day) Cho might get some offers, depending on how reports re: how well Oden’s rehab is coming along
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
"Getting to work on life without Oden, unfortunately, is the best chance Portland has to salvage a promising era of Blazers basketball"
…I guess my question is what is that salvaging going to look like? What is the goal?
I still think sticking it out with Oden is more likely to produce a championship than cutting bait. Just like an asteroid-shaped asteroid is more likely to strike the earth than one shaped like Mickey Mouse, but still…
Gonna go out on a limb here!
And state for the record, that WE HAVE 8 MONTHS BEFORE WE NEED TO MAKE A DECISION!!! Let’s all wait and see what happens. If Oden is on crutches in 8 months, or can’t practice due to tendonitis, that will clafiry things. If Roy is done as an elite player, that changes things. If Camby or Przy look like they’re slowing down, that’s another consideration too. As is the potential loss of next season to strike. So go to your fridge, crack a beer, and watch some games on TV.
Pre-emptive defensive statement: Yes, I know that the discussing of scenarios is what this whole Blazersedge thing is for, but I’m speaking specifically to those people who are making final statements about “We’ve gotta re-sign him!” or “We’ve gotta cut ties with him tomorrow!”. Chill. Observe. Repeat.
Wanted: A MEANER Blazer attitude! Knock somebody down and step on him!
The L*kers, The Heat, and The Thunder...the New AXIS of EVIL.
by CaptHustle on Nov 21, 2010 4:45 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Reminds me of this summer
When the cry was “We’ve gotta trade Miller and Przy ECs because they’re not going to be part of the future!”
Well now, Greg is out and Joel is going to be needed, and Andre is running the show while Roy has been resting
Miller and/or Przybilla’s ECs may yet be traded this year, but there’s less urgency to get that done now. Because of their ages they aren’t going to be a part of Portland’s distant future, but (along with Camby) they’re helping the kids to prepare for that future right now, in the present.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Ben's one man crusade against Larry Miller continues.
Editor Jorge Sierra tasked me with answering the question: What should the Blazers do with Greg Oden?
The insinuations that Larry Miller is either an incompetent buffoon or a ambitious ladder-climber who uses incompetent buffoonery to accomplish his goals is just a free bonus opinion that Jorge didn’t know he was getting. Two editorial positions for the price of one!
"That really stuck with me and built something inside of me. He's a two-time MVP. If he comes in and works like that, then that's what I need to be doing." - Armon Johnson on Steve Nash
by conspirator5 on Nov 21, 2010 4:50 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
It's more about the differing public statements of Cho and Miller, and the fact Miller gives his opinion on player contracts at all
They might be on the same page playing different roles in public, or not. My theory is that both just wanted to return to the “business as usual” and “calm waters” scenario by affirming the support of the club (and not get tons of calls from agents, other GMs, media, etc. inquiring about available players) but are really keeping all options open for later. But that’s anybody’s guess.
Miller is a politician who knows who is patron is...
I’d discount whatever he has said about Oden heavily. He does, however, tip where Allen is probably sitting on the question at the moment.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
He does, however, tip where Allen is probably sitting on the question at the moment.
This is my suspicion as well. Larry is Paul’s mouthpiece, while Cho needs to maintain some ambiguity re: Oden to the rest of the GMs
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I think it's perfectly valid to highlight those discrepancies.
Also, while I have questioned in the past whether Ben was blurring editorializing with reportage, that is not happening here. This is clearly an editorial piece and nothing else, so that is all to the good. It’s just when we get to these kinds of statements:
Of course, the obvious logic of waiting to make a decision didn’t stop Blazers president Larry Miller from opening contract negotiations in public last week,
Shortly followed by
Blazers general manager Rich Cho had it right this week, refusing to publicly commit to Oden’s future in Portland,
then Ben’s not just asknig questions, or highlighting discrepancies, he’s making his feelings clear. For the purposes of this article, Larry Miller is meddlesome, big mouthed, and not very smart. Really, for all I know, that could be 100% accurate. I just find it a little hard to accept unquestioningly because Ben’s had it in for Larry for a while. It’s kind of like AWoj piling on KP. Even when you think the guy might be onto something, it feels like it’s too personally motivated to take seriously.
"That really stuck with me and built something inside of me. He's a two-time MVP. If he comes in and works like that, then that's what I need to be doing." - Armon Johnson on Steve Nash
by conspirator5 on Nov 21, 2010 5:22 PM PST up reply actions
Another possible out come is that Greg has one {or 2} more major setbacks with his knees,
Decides enough is enough and just walks away from it at some point
by southern oregon on Nov 21, 2010 4:52 PM PST reply actions
Zero percent chance of this. He can still make Eddie Curry money for playing Eddie Curry minutes for somebody...
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Interesting to watch Ben's style evolve...
…as he writes more and more for external venues. The audience really does define the voice, doesn’t it?
Nah
I think Ben is expressing his honest opinion.
The fact that it doesn’t paint a rosy picture for this incarnation of the Blazers just doesn’t jibe with what most fans want to hear.
No doubt he's being honest
And, sadly, I can see the logic in what he says. But usually when we read Dave’s or Ben’s opinions on BEdge, they are more, um, “moderate” than this. That level of moderation—in part, a decision not to advocate as much as to observe—is probably an exception among sports blogs, but I’ve gotten used to it. Then again, Ben didn’t publish these views on BEdge. Just linked to them.
As far as I'm concerned...
Greg Oden is a Trail Blazer now, his best years are (obviously) ahead of him, and his current situation makes him cheap to keep. Putting emotional drain and opinion aside, the gain from keeping him is way higher than the gain from losing him, at least in the Win/Loss column. After all we’ve been through, losing him now would be like putting your kid up for adoption because he didn’t win the pinewood derby in 4th grade. This thing ain’t over.
- Sam
by RipCitySam on Nov 21, 2010 5:32 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
Amen brother
Not to mention the only way to beat this Karma thing is to stand up to it and punch it in the mouth. Stick by the big guy and let him heal. Dude can play. nuf said!
Are Oden's injuries worse than Bowie's Walton's or Sabonis's?
From what I remember I dont think they are. Let him heal straighten his posture and give it one more go.
Exactly!
Like the former Blazer team doctor pointed out last night on the pre-game show, Sam Bowie went on to have a 13-year career and turned down a two-year contract when he finally retired. It’s too soon to say Oden’s career is over. Keeping him may seem disagreeable, but for me, watching him have a long, productive career elsewhere would be worse. He’s 22-years-old. Had he gone to college four years, he would just be entering the league, more or less. Cutting him loose now is a bad idea. I’m focusing on the big picture, not just the near term.
by Igot D. Jones on Nov 21, 2010 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
They were all different
With Bill is was his feet. As Halberstam wrote, Walton has high arches and the bones in his feet couldn’t put up with the pounding of an NBA season.
With Bowie it was his tibias. He’d break one and then rehab it and the other one would snap. Sam’s still walking around with screws in his legs that were inserted back in the ’80s
Sabonis had a bad Achilles. He never regained his former mobility but Arvydas shot and passed it so well he could still be a quality big man even running at half speed.
The former Blazer big man who Greg best compares to (injury-wise) is Lloyd Neal. “Bottom” had cronic knee problems and if he had been born 30 years later then a lot of what he went through could have been fixed with the ’scope and m/f surgery. Same thing with Geoff Petrie
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Ben Golliver of DraftKevinDurant.com ...
Oh wait …
Seriously, though, I agree with those who are saying to chill out and wait. Ben is expressing a perfectly legitimate opinion, but I am disappointed to see him taking such a firm stance this early in the game with such limited information. The jury’s still out, let’s deal with it.
It reminds me of a job situation that someone I know recently went through: the contract expired, and he had been told that it would be renegotiated without any problem. A month later, still no word. He could have gone to his boss and said “enough already, hire me or fire me!” and gotten nothing, or he could have waited. He waited, and was offered a new contract at twice the salary a week later.
The point is: no reason to come to any premature conclusions without all the information.
Wait and see what happens with Roy and his knees
See how Brandon does for the rest of the year. If he is able to remain productive and give 30+ minutes a night it might be worth extending the offer to Oden. If, on the other hand, it becomes more and more obvious that Roy will never be the same player, it might be a better idea to let GO go.
Paul Allen can afford the $8.8 million. But if Brandon isn’t the star this team needs, and we can’t get rid of his max contract, wouldn’t it be wiser to use that money for a player that can actually get on the court? Of course, if it looks like Brandon is on the decline then Allen might want to chase that longshot jackpot that Oden supposedly represents even more.
Let’s face it: Oden is fragile. He is injury prone. Three different season ending injuries in as many years, as well as health problems that extend to his college years and even earlier. He has given no indication over his career, both professional and amateur, that he can stay healthy for anything other than short periods at a time. Sure, he has talent. Despite what PER stats say Oden has a lot of developing to do. There are times when he looks incredibly awkward on the court. There are questions about his desire and mental toughness. Using history as a guide his best days might very well be behind him.
The uncertainty over Brandon’s future makes the decision to retain Oden that much more difficult. If anything I hope this will encourage mgmt to place more emphasis on acquiring players with solid health histories. LMA, Batum, and Matthews are all still young. You have nice role players in Dante and Armon. It is becoming more and more obvious that the chances of winning a title the next 2-3 years are slim at best. What are the realistic options when it comes to doing a semi-overhaul of the team? I would hate to see Joel or Andre go, but if letting them go meant getting a solid young starter… What are the options when it comes to buying out Roy’s contract to open up cap space (worst case scenario)?
how about a CBA clause that prevents a player from achieving FA via injury?
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
What the...
I read the words risk/reward repeatedly, REPEATEDLY, though after further examination NEVER saw the rewards section. Way to be “analytical” about it.
Hyper biased views guised as truth or thoughtful analysis is the height of folly. I’d love to read an article where both sides are gone into in depth and attention is paid equally in both scenarios, but this is not that. This is something of a completely different sort.
by ctcyawni on Nov 21, 2010 9:30 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Well said.
Well done Ben.
I agree on so many points. Time to think about Blazer ball without Oden. I want the best for the guy, but we have to think about moving forward and being realistic. A lot of games to be played. I guess see how things go, but pretty spot on.
by BBlazer on Nov 21, 2010 10:07 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Add me to the growing list of NO votes....
I hope we sign Greg to as long a deal as we can sign him for, for the most incentive-laden contract the new CBA will allow.
If we had a potential franchise altering center in the minor leagues, sure, we could cut bait. But hoops isn’t baseball, or even footbalklk, where the new RB of the week can be a walk-on. Basketball teams have fewer than a dozen key contributors. One means much more than any other sport. A 7’ big guy means as much as any other position in analogous to a top-notch QB or ace starter, or shut-out goalie…. If you have one… keep him! If he plays three playoff series in ten years, you’ll probably win one title out of it.. That’s worth it!
by Visionary2 on Nov 21, 2010 10:10 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
If you have one… keep him! If he plays three playoff series in ten years, you’ll probably win one title out of it.. That’s worth it!
Same argument with the L*kers and Bynum, basically
L*A extended ‘Drew at the max even though he’s had injuries that still aren’t completely resolved. Why? Because he’s the best player on their team? Hardly, it’s because Phil and Mitch know you’ve gotta have size to compete for and hopefully win the finals (when Kendrick Perkins went down in game 6, the Celtic’s hopes went right down with him)
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Just because you have a seven footer does not mean you will win any championships. Look at Orlando with the best center in the league with Howard. They haven’t won any championships and Greg Oden will never be the caliber that Howard is. Look at Houston, they had Yao and couldn’t come close to winning the title. Roy Hibbert and the Pacers will be lucky to make the playoffs and certainly won’t win the title this year or even have a chance in the forseeable future. Also, the difference between Bynum and Oden is that Bynum has, you know, actually been able to stay on the court for longer than 82 games in four seasons. Compound the fact that Greg Oden will be coming back with two knees that have had micro fracture surgery, he won’t be the same player we hoped he would be when the blazers drafted him.
I have to say I disagree with the negativity
and the reading into the situation an office power struggle.
Two4larue, has it right. There’s no real threat to the team’s financial viability by giving Oden the qualifying offer, it is simply a way to enable the team to further evaluate his progress with the intention of being able to match if they desire, negotiate a new contract before other teams can bid for him, or simply let him go if they don’t see what they want to. After all, we have to remember that the qualifying offer is based on his current salary. The jump from one to the other is significant, but not unexpected considering what the team likely would have paid him if he had come back on schedule and played the rest of the season.
"She turned me into a newt!
A newt?
...I got better."
by Seijeff on Nov 21, 2010 11:31 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
You're better than this, Ben
When you wrote a controvesial piece about why Steve Blake had to go, you came up with a conclusion, stayed on message, came up with arguments and facts to back up your analysis, and put it all together in a well reasoned piece.
This is the opposite. You come up with a weak conclusion at the very end of the piece that is completely unsupported by the rest of the article. The question was what the Blazers should do with Greg Oden. If you think they need to cut ties… um, why?
This wasn’t supposed to be a piece about whether Larry Miller is overstepping his bounds.
This should have been a piece about who the Blazers are, who the Blazers want to be, and how they get there. How do the contracts of Roy and Lamarcus factor into the analysis? If the Blazers let Oden go, can they still become a contender? How? Who can they sign with the money they would’ve spent on Oden?
I happen to disagree with your conclusion, but it’s difficult to debate because there’s so little logic or reason backing it up.
I mean this as constructively as possible, by the way. You do a great job around here. Keep up the good work.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
by KP Corleone on Nov 22, 2010 7:59 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Sign him and..
Get him to shooting coach. If he developed as a decent free throw shooter, then even as a back up center he’d be a valuable asset. Booya.
by Ogre Winfrey on Nov 22, 2010 6:39 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
NBA Playoffs Content Module
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Behind the Box Score, where the Boston Celtics are moving on to the conference finals
- NBA Playoffs Fan Fiction: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- The Indiana Pacers? Gone till November
- Shaquille O’Neal is in a Chinese beer commercial, too (VIDEO)
- ‘Deep Thoughts’ and Cheap Thoughts: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
