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Like it Or Not, Greg is our Only Hope

After contemplating all off season about the Blazers and championships and the rise of the super team, etc. I think it is time we come to grips with one thing: our only glimmer of hope for a championship relies on Oden's health.

Let's face it, looking at the NBA over the last 10 years, championship teams have been highly predictable.  Dominant big men paired with one great guard (or two) win championships.  Shaq and Kobe, Pau and Kobe, Shaq and Wade, Celtic's Big Three, and Duncan Parker Ginobli all come to mind.  The lone outlier?  The 2004 Pistons, who ran into a disgruntled and highly volatile Laker's roster of 2004.The NBA is far more predicatable than the NFL or MLB for better or worse.  Five players on the court vs. 9 or 22 seems to make it a more stable sport to predict.  Look at the Yankees and Cowboys in those leagues with their payrolls and stars and the championships that have resulted in 10 years: one.  Yet the NBA follows more of a formula.

This means we must pretty much pray for Greg's health.  We are not getting another completely dominant big man.  LA could be better but his best won't win a championship with Roy.

Roy's comments, which I can see both angles on, should not really be a concern because they do not matter: Oden's knee matters.  Our only chance to win a championship rests with Greg.  Greg and Roy together might--MIGHT--give us a chance, and that is hopeful thinking.  We need Greg, we need to re-sign Greg at some point this year because as a small market team, we won't get a superstar through free agency.  All we have is the draft, which gave us Oden.

This post is not meant to be seen as a reaction to all of the trade talks discussed here or anything else for that matter.  It simply is my belief with the NBA in it's current stage and era, which God forbid could be the beginning of the super team era.  What are everyone's thoughts?  I'm still hopeful for this team even without Greg, but realistically we cannot win it without him.

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i agree

our championship hopes rely on greg’s knees

Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
"I was like, 'Wow, we get a run.'-Felix Hernandez
Artis Gilmore for Hall of Fame
due to his low support around Bedge, Rudy Fernandez is temporarily my new favorite player

by thomasikehara on Oct 14, 2010 5:11 PM PDT reply actions  

No Greg, no chance.

If you look at the NBA right now, the key to winning is size. Portland is one of the only teams in the league that has the size, length, talent and athleticism to deal with LA. This is why I don’t think Miami will win it all because they do not have good enough bigs (aside from Bosh) to beat LA. With Greg, Lamarcus, Marcus and Joel we have the talent and depth to get it done. Of course it takes more than just good bigs, but having Oden, Marcus, Lamarcus and Joel is half the battle. I know Greg has had tough luck with injuries, but if he’s healthy at the right time of the year, we will cause the Lakers some serious problems. The bottom line is nobody can beat LA unless they have size.

by JAWKS on Oct 14, 2010 5:35 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree

the only solution is for the Blazers to hire a priest perform an exorcism on his knees.

"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Oct 14, 2010 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think "only hope" is too strong

Best hope, by a large margin? Sure. But Marcus Camby is an awfully good defensive center, so if all the stars lined up besides Greg’s health, I could see this team winning a championship. They’d still need a large amount of luck, but they’re not so clearly outclassed that it’s impossible.

by zopa on Oct 14, 2010 6:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Rasheed and Ben Wallace were not dominant big men?

Both are in their twilight years now, but make no mistake… They were the franchise big men for the 2004 Pistons and that team wouldn’t have won the title without them.

by looster401 on Oct 14, 2010 6:22 PM PDT reply actions  

neither were the low post pivot presence that he's talking about

Ben Wallace couldn’t hit anything outside a putback dunk and Sheed has taken his offense further from the basket every single year he’s been in the league. these guys were basically LA and Pryz, a combo that has been proven to lose in the playoffs.

by sparks89 on Oct 14, 2010 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Greg compared himself to Wallace when he was in high school and Wallace was in his prime ;-)

Help us Obi Wan Gregnobie, you are our only hope. D’oh.

"Listening to the media only increases your odds of failing at whatever you are doing" - Mark Cuban

by Norsktroll on Oct 14, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

No Wonder

His Knees buckle.

Buddy is a goooood dog!

by nascent on Oct 14, 2010 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let's pretend

GO didn’t go down last year and continued to play and improve. Then let’s pretend (being conservative) he was a 15 and 10 player. Would the Blazers have gotten out of the first round? I think “heck yes” would be the answer. (“heck” being used in place of where satan lives).

by toolman on Oct 14, 2010 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

were the 80s blazers hopes solely to live or perish with sam bowie? remember we traded bowie for buck williams. i know the blazers didn’t win a title then either but they came damn close.
for the record i still expect great things from greg ‘skyfather’ oden.

by revdjweb on Oct 14, 2010 6:36 PM PDT reply actions  

i think the reason he fell to us

was teams knowing he wasnt going to coming over for a while, but i could be wrong

Michael Jordan is the Nicolas Batum of America
"I was like, 'Wow, we get a run.'-Felix Hernandez
Artis Gilmore for Hall of Fame
due to his low support around Bedge, Rudy Fernandez is temporarily my new favorite player

by thomasikehara on Oct 14, 2010 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

that's what I've heard too

You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.

by austinpwnz on Oct 14, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

The big flaw in the Adelman Blazers?

Drexler, Porter, Kersey, Buck Williams, Cliff Robinson as 6th man — the weak link was Kevin Duckworth.

Think back to how Sabonis undressed him, Laimbeer bullied and outthought him… Duckworth (who had his moments as a clutch shooter early on) was always fragile psychologically and could be “out-toughed”

ignacio

by ignacio on Oct 14, 2010 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sabonis undressed him

I think you mean Divac, in the 1991 WC finals

When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 15, 2010 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm suddenly reminded of a Sunday school parable/song

The one about the man who built his house on the sand versus the man who built his house on the rocks …

by nikolokolus on Oct 14, 2010 9:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Team USA seems to have done quite well at the world championships with no real Center, thank you very much...

Oden is no savior. He’s a raw potential future talent that hasn’t played enough to do anything about the “raw” or answer valid questions about the quantity of the “potential.” In fact, the only reason I think he has anything to do with “future” relates to the teams continued use of him as a poster boy along with Roy and LMA. In terms of goods delivered in the past or the reasonable expectation of the output of goods he will deliver in the immediate future, Oden would like the 7th man on this squad, if that…

Can the Blazers win a championship with this team, sans Oden? Yes. They need to have Camby and Pryzzy stay healthy, LMA needs to step his game up, Roy needs to deliver points, assists, and rebounds as big as his talk, and Nico and Sweetness and Rex and Rudy need to do their thang.

Anything is possible, don’t think the Lakers are that much better than anyone else, because they aren’t.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Oct 14, 2010 10:45 PM PDT reply actions  

thats because team USA had ALOT more talent then any other team at every other position

sort of what miami is doing and the reason why they’re already favorites to win the championship. when youre THAT talented at every other position it doesnt matter if you have a dominant center or not, but it is in no way ever going to be a situation that the blazers are in (or a situation that any team has ever been in before).

i agree with everything else you said, i just think team USA is a bad example.

by Jpar on Oct 15, 2010 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Obviously the raw, awkward, fresh off injury Oden isn't the key to a championship, but no one is making that claim

It’s Oden as a healthy low post beast that is the key. Without that Oden the Blazers won’t win a ring. The defense isn’t good enough and the offense is too jump shot oriented and predictable.

And as Jpar said above, Team USA isn’t a valid comparison because of the incredible talent at every other position.

Can I get an Armon?

by Magnum on Oct 15, 2010 4:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ha!

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Oct 15, 2010 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Team USA hasn’t played a single team capable of winning an NBA playoff series; international basketball just isn’t that far along, yet.

by wepto on Oct 15, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

For a championship banner

Yes, it depends on Greg (or a trade). We have a good team. But the personnel we have now will not win a championship. They’ll maybe make second round as they mature and gel, but we’ll not win a banner as-is. Need a change, and I’m hoping Greg’s health is that change.
That being said, if we don’t win a banner, but play hard, play smart, and keep making the playoffs, I’ll keep watching and being a fan.

Wanted: A MEANER Blazer attitude! Knock somebody down and step on him!

by CaptHustle on Oct 15, 2010 7:32 AM PDT reply actions  

I've always said over at SSR that Portland is our biggest threat in the West.

Simply because they’re the only team that can match up to our frontline. If Oden and Bynum stay healthy, I expect a Lakers/Blazers WCF’s.

"If you have a debate with a scholar, you can win. If you have a debate with an ignorant person, you will definitely lose."

"The NBA Apocalypse has occurred, and it's our fault."- C.A. Clark

AMMO's stache + Shaw's power = 2 Titles

by LakerAce on Oct 15, 2010 11:25 AM PDT reply actions  

A Laker fan who knows what he's talking about!

You should stick around, by the end of the season you’ll be rooting for the Blazers instead. :-) Somebody as rational as you appear to be surely can’t remain a Laker fan for long…

When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.

by ictoagsn on Oct 15, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm a Laker fan first, Blazer fan second.

A distant second at that. I’ll always root for the Blazers unless they’re playing LA.

"If you have a debate with a scholar, you can win. If you have a debate with an ignorant person, you will definitely lose."

"The NBA Apocalypse has occurred, and it's our fault."- C.A. Clark

AMMO's stache + Shaw's power = 2 Titles

by LakerAce on Oct 16, 2010 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's the problem

Lakers first, Blazers second? Somebody has their priorities messed up. Don’t worry though, we’ll sort you out (or try to).

Glad to have you, even if you’re confused.

When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.

by ictoagsn on Oct 16, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

LOL

I’ll stick around, but don’t keep your hopes up. I’ll stay a Laker fan even if they become a lottery team for 10 years after the Kobe era.

"If you have a debate with a scholar, you can win. If you have a debate with an ignorant person, you will definitely lose."

"The NBA Apocalypse has occurred, and it's our fault."- C.A. Clark

AMMO's stache + Shaw's power = 2 Titles

by LakerAce on Oct 16, 2010 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

So long as you know

That choosing that screenname is like painting a target on your chest, and then coming here is like asking Robin Hood to do a little practice, you should be fine. :-)

And I’m an optimist. We’ll have your screen name changed to “BlazerAce” in pretty short order.

When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.

by ictoagsn on Oct 17, 2010 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

We have a regular over at SSR who's name is "Celtics18and19".

And he’s fit in just find, so I’ll be optimistic as well and hope it works out here.

"If you have a debate with a scholar, you can win. If you have a debate with an ignorant person, you will definitely lose."

"The NBA Apocalypse has occurred, and it's our fault."- C.A. Clark

AMMO's stache + Shaw's power = 2 Titles

by LakerAce on Oct 17, 2010 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

You should too

Most of what you’ll get will be in good humor.

He’s brave.

When the world knows Nico Batum as "The Inevitable", I'll be very happy with where he is as a player.

by ictoagsn on Oct 18, 2010 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

The punchline being that neither Oden nor Bynum are gonna play more than about 30 games this year and will thus pair each other off to a zero...
If Oden and Bynum stay healthy, I expect a Lakers/Blazers WCF’s.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Oct 15, 2010 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Most of their injuries have been freak accidents.

I’m actually hopeful they’ll both be relatively healthy this season.

"If you have a debate with a scholar, you can win. If you have a debate with an ignorant person, you will definitely lose."

"The NBA Apocalypse has occurred, and it's our fault."- C.A. Clark

AMMO's stache + Shaw's power = 2 Titles

by LakerAce on Oct 16, 2010 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

In the words of Mike Gundy...

This is GARBAGE.

Don't be a clownshoe :D

by 420Phenom on Oct 15, 2010 11:51 AM PDT reply actions  

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