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Evidence that Nate is a great coach

In my time as a reader of Blazer's Edge (the past 3 years, I think), I've noticed a few trends that come up: Blazers should start playing [random foreign/white player]; Travis Outlaw has low Basketball IQ; and Fire Nate McMillan. The last one I've always found to be the most grating because it was difficult to assail. The team was improving but it was difficult to ascribe to Nate's influence.

But this season, with the state of the team, McMillan's really shining. His players are executing the offensive and defensive sets while playing wildly out of position. Our bench gunners, Bayless and Miller, are not shooting the team into oblivion. The team plays under control and exhibits tremendous amounts of confidence and trust in their teammates (and given the way November went, when no one could shoot, that's even more of a statement).

Part of the credit goes to Pritchard, who's putting people on the team who want to be those types of players. But more is due to McMillan - he's taken potential malcontents like Miller and Bayless and found ways to fit their skills into the team concept. He's given Cunningham and now Pendergraph just the right amount of rope to contribute to an NBA team well before anyone thought they would be ready. He taught Brandon Roy that 'The Secret' wasn't sacrificing his shots so that teammates could take them, but it was sacrificing himself for the greater team good (which can mean going for 25 night-after-night-after-night). He made sure that a guy brought in to wave the towel from the bench was mentally prepared to unpack his game from the suitcase.

Not only that, but the team as a unit exhibits extremely high levels of mental toughness. In the context of the season and in each individual game, the team has never quit, never folded, or backed down. They were down 14 in the first quarter, and rather than trying to shoot their way back into the game, they just plugged away on offense and committed to better defense and lo-and-behold, a 10+ point victory going away.

If Nate isn't on the All-Star bench, and isn't discussed on the national level as a leading coach-of-the-year candidate, I really won't know what to say.

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The All-star coach is determined by which team has the best record in the conference

so that is out….but COY …..he should be in the discussion

" Welcome to the Bedge....where good, is never good enough"…Rudiculous

by 92wastheyear on Jan 3, 2010 9:43 AM PST reply actions  

aren’t the “assistants” other coaches, or is it the entire LAL staff?

M, period. Fresh, comma.

by manzell on Jan 3, 2010 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think so

I think it is just the LA guys

" Welcome to the Bedge....where good, is never good enough"…Rudiculous

by 92wastheyear on Jan 3, 2010 8:25 PM PST up reply actions  

That is correct.

…but don’t Forget the Pat Riley rule. It can’t be the same coach in two consecutive years.

Assuming the L*kers are in first place at the deadline (Late January, I believe…) and since Phil J*ckson coached the west last season, the coaching staff will likely come from the #2 team in the west this year.

Ahem.

Portland is currently 1 1/2 games out of #2 spot in the west.

Portland Trail Blazers, Future World Champions 2010-2021.

by Majikj0n on Jan 4, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Could not agree more

I don’t understand the Anti-Nate crowd. I guess they’d rather have a team that gets more cool fast break highlights and wins 20-30 games a year than a team that plays under control and wins 50-60 games a year.

JRogero

by JRogero on Jan 3, 2010 11:04 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

False dichotomy and straw man argument, nice try though.

The argument is that people think that with all the athleticism/speed on the team (particularly Aldridge who could run all over most other PF) and a new PG who has a reputation for being a great fastbreak/alley-oop guy, a faster paced offense might be more effective and lead to more wins. Don’t know if I agree or disagree, but that’s the argument.

by Terminator X on Jan 3, 2010 6:31 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Of course it's not an either/or situation

Some teams are suited to play at a fast pace and some are suited to play at a slow pace. What I meant was that some fans seem to value style over substance. This team wins a higher percentage of games when the score is in the 90’s than when the score is in the 100’s that seems to indicate they play better when the place is slower. A slower pace fits our super star player better. It may mean the blazers are on Sports Center less but it doesn’t mean Nate is a bad coach.

So I don’t think you can’t win at a fast pace I just think the Blazers will win more games at a slower pace. We’re built more like the Spurs than the Suns.

JRogero

by JRogero on Jan 5, 2010 3:27 PM PST up reply actions  

rec

Nate is a great coach, the fire-nate-campaign is ridiculous.

I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

by RyanRTE on Jan 3, 2010 11:26 AM PST reply actions  

great is stretching

i dont think you will find more than 30% of non blazer fans who will say nate is great. he is good..but great coaches need to go a bit further in the playoffs. i dont even consider avery johnson a great coach….and he has accomplished more than nate.

I'm going on a Dave boycott until AK1984 is brought back.

"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia

by Philthyanimal on Jan 4, 2010 12:06 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I disagree

I think a lot of non blazer fans would kill to have nate as a coach for their teams. Most of them will see the 4 season improvement and get all googly eyed.

Keep the faith.

by fajunga on Jan 4, 2010 1:09 PM PST up reply actions  

i'll reiterate

nate is good…not great. good is still better than 1/2.

I'm going on a Dave boycott until AK1984 is brought back.

"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia

by Philthyanimal on Jan 4, 2010 1:44 PM PST up reply actions  

anti-Nater here

Look, I think Nate has grown because of all these injuries. The main gripes fans had with him were that he was stubborn and losing the coaching battles to superior coaches.

Since the injuries he has been more fluid in his game plans and his substitutions. Bayless has taken tremendous pressure off of BROY— even with all of these bad shooting nights, Nate is smartly continuing to play him significant minutes. Nate seems to be making quicker decisions and allowing his players to play. They don’t have so much hesitation in their games. He is also riding the hot hand a bit more.

All of these adjustments and letting go of a strict way of doing things is probably helping him grow. I hope the record shows him that he may want to keep some of his ways of thinking/tactics when he gets his guys back. I think thats what most anti-Nater’s have wanted from him. This is encouraging.

Play Bayless.
BRoy back.

by loyal_blazer on Jan 3, 2010 11:34 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

one has to wonder though

if Nate had more guards on the bench would he still be playing Bayless in spite of the bad shooting nights ?

by jbm01 on Jan 3, 2010 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

All we can do is wonder

I have paid a little attention to that. It seems like he is valuing the fact he opens the floor up. I think if he could get the same effect from another guy who was also making his shots, no brainer he’d use him instead.

If all of the speculation is true, it would definitely shed some light on how he uses TO.

nonetheless, he is showing he can coach without a muzzle. While I can be a detractor of certain coaches/players, gotta give credit where credit is do. Good job Nate!

Play Bayless.
BRoy back.

by loyal_blazer on Jan 3, 2010 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

nates job has been made easier bc of the injuries

he doesnt have the options he did when the team was fully healthy…now if we lose we cant second guess him on too much bc he has no choice, but before there were a ton of problems. these problems may resurface again next year unless we trim the roster.

I'm going on a Dave boycott until AK1984 is brought back.

"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia

by Philthyanimal on Jan 4, 2010 12:07 AM PST up reply actions  

Just because it is harder for fans to second guess him ...

… doesn’t mean his job is any easier.

This sort of reasoning places the opinions of the fans at the top of the process, rather than off on the side where it belongs.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

The problem with the two arguments you describe ...

… is that people never offered up any solid evidence to support either of them.

Take the one that Nate loses coaching battles to superior coaches. How so? Other than looking at records against specific teams and coaches, how do you tell? And even then, a person still has to provide evidence that a loss was due to coaching and not the level of performance on the part of either team.

Here is the evidence that he doesn’t get regularly outcoached:

average improvement in total wins of 9 per season the past three seasons.

one of the top percentages for this team scoring after a timeout.

one of the better records in OT games and close games

selection to the Olympic Team coaching staff

Considering that he’s done this with one of the youngest teams in the league and it should be fairly obvious that the burden of proving he gets out coached should lie with those trying to make that argument.

The stubborn argument tends to get a little more supporting “evidence”, usually related to
 - Steve Blake starting / minutes
 - pulling Oden when he gets two fouls
 - refusing to run
 - not playing (fill in the blank)

But when one looks a little closer at this evidence it doesn’t exactly meet the standard of court admissability (not that it has to). Most of it appears to be based on the observer’s personal opinion. And when weighing the credibility of the witness verses Nate’s credibility, the perponderance falls heavily onto Nate’s end of the scale. Take the Oden debate. McMillan was getting regular criticism here for sitting Greg for significant minutes, even when he was playing well, due to the two foul rule. But as jscot points out in another reply, Greg’s fouls were trending down. In other words, it was possible that Nate’s strategy for getting Greg to cut down on bad habits was working. The same holds true for the Blake argument. Folks would use numbers like PER and scoring average to show that Blake was a poor individual performer. But the statistics also show that Portland’s most effective lineups include Blake.

I don’t happen to think McMillan walks on water. But I do think that one of the best moves this organization ever did was hire him as their coach and I hope that we keep him for a long time to come. Whatever faults he has or room for improvement, it doesn’t change the fact that he is clearly one of the better coaches in the league.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 1:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Rec

for speaking my truth

    RoadBlazer

by Roadblazer on Jan 3, 2010 2:03 PM PST reply actions  

I'll admit

I did have my doubts about Nate,
but they have all easily been crushed.

by OneTeam on Jan 3, 2010 3:57 PM PST reply actions  

I'm an Anti-Nate guy myself.

Since you already stated that you can’t understand us I probably should spare you my view point but here goes…. I didn’t have too many issues last year with nate. My dislike for him grew this season when he comes out of training camp for the third season in a row not knowing who he’s going to start. I don’t see the elite coaches struggling with this. I used to give him slack when we had a young team but have grown tired of any excuses. Like stated before on many other threads, he completely missmanaged the players this year. Sitting out not only GO but LMA because of two fouls. And not just for a few minutes to give them a “time out” he would sit them the rest of the HALF. Then expect them to be in rhythm for the second half, if he didn’t bench them again. His rotation rarely was based on play and usually based on his pre-determined rotation. Which of course opponents could plan for. Duh. I don’t think he’s a bad coach, but I don’t believe he is the best coach for the Blazers. I think interpreting the teams recent success with all the inuries as great coaching by Nate is a mistake. What choice does Nate have right now but to play 8 or 9 guys. In my opinion the only thing this proves is that we had too big of rotation with guys being lost in the mix. Now they know they WILL be playing without being yanked. With viewer players being excorted in and out during the game the team game is more fluid. Guys get a better feel for their teamates ect….

by Flapbreaker on Jan 3, 2010 4:43 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

you miss the point

How was it that Dante, Howard, and Bayless were ready to step into their roles? How is that Roy hasn’t decided to go into me-first mode? It’s because Nate prepared them. Maurice Cheeks couldn’t prepare his starters for the opening tip, let alone a change of plans

M, period. Fresh, comma.

by manzell on Jan 3, 2010 4:56 PM PST via mobile up reply actions   1 recs

That, in a nutshell, is the argument of the antiNaters...

Rec for good summary…

Nate completely botched the integration of the new guy, and failed to adust to the positive attributes different players can bring to a team, as exemplified by his not being able to get this team to push the ball, despite having the talent to do so.

by Visionary2 on Jan 3, 2010 10:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Why should Nate want to push?

He had one of the most efficient offenses in the league last year in the half court. His main offensive advantages, beyond the scoring prowess of his players, was offensive rebounding and low turnovers, both of which are easier to execute in a half-court offense. Pushing the ball is exciting, sure, but it also increases the risk of turnovers and letting the other team crash the offensive boards, since our players are leaking out early instead of crashing the boards.

I have never had problems with Nate’s offenses, as they have proven effective. I don’t understand the anti-Nate position on that side of the ball.

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Jan 3, 2010 11:10 PM PST up reply actions  

he is the one that said those are his priorities

another priority was to turn our team into a defensive team….we had stretches of great defense but not everyone was on board with that mentality. he also said that he wanted rudy to get 30+ mins a game (when the team was healthy)…that was never accomplished either.

nate is a good coach in some perspectives, but he does have his flaws.

I'm going on a Dave boycott until AK1984 is brought back.

"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia

by Philthyanimal on Jan 4, 2010 12:10 AM PST up reply actions  

"Not everybody was on board with that mentality"

Very true, and it starts with Brandon Roy. This is a guy who said he wanted to be first-team All Defense this year. Right now he’s eligible for second-team All Matador, but that’s about it. I understand Roy has to shoulder a tremendous amount of the offensive burden — but again, I put that on Nate’s schemes. We have a ton of talented offensive players and I’d be fine with lowering Roy’s usage if it means getting him to buy in on the defensive side of the floor.

Your best player sets the tone, period. In any sport at any level. If your best player and team leader is emphasizing defense, selling out at that end, and chewing out his teammates for not following suit, you

will
be a good defensive team. I think Nate’s offensive philosophy is hurting the team on defense because it makes Roy do too much.

"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview

by BlazersOrBust on Jan 4, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions  

blockquote fail!

just make that bold.

"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview

by BlazersOrBust on Jan 4, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions  

link?

"Your best?!?!! Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and &^%@ the prom queen"

Super Rodgers Bros.

#52

by cloudydays on Jan 4, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I think they've proven effective in the regular season

When teams lock down defensively in the postseason — when the paint is defended like Fort Knox and every layup attempt means that you’re gonna have to earn your points at the line, cuz you’re getting hammered — you need to generate extra points somewhere.

Forcing turnovers and running out on them, especially with the athletes that we have and a very gifted look-ahead passer in Miller spearheading that attack, seems like the easiest way to generate those points. The 1-4 iso got taken behind the woodshed by the Rockets, but it seemed like we made precious few changes to our offensive philosophy from last season to this one. That is my objection as part of the “anti-Nate” crowd, but I can’t speak for anybody else.

"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview

by BlazersOrBust on Jan 4, 2010 9:41 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Integration of the new guy??

How about four rookies and 54 wins last year? Was that good enough integration? Miller has looked anything but all-world this year and that can’t all be on Nate when viewed in the context of what he accomplished last year. Also, against the other top eight teams in the west this year: 8-3, 3-2 on the road. Those are the games I want to see them win this year and they are doing it with Nate at the helm.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Jan 3, 2010 11:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Which do you think counts for more?

The team’s record against the best in the west, or your view that Miller should be starting?

Are we to believe that Portland should be 9-1 or 10 – 0 against these teams if Nate were only smart enough to do what you and the other McMillan bashing fans think he should be doing?

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 1:34 PM PST up reply actions  

This…

This team will overachieve with Nate at the helm, but at full strength – Nate’s limitations as a coach are exposed.

was the key line in your very reasoned and well-written comment. I completely agree with it and with the general thrust of your argument. Nate has done an outstanding job during this very rough patch, but that doesn’t cancel out or paper over the marginal job he was doing with the roster at full strength.

"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview

by BlazersOrBust on Jan 4, 2010 9:37 AM PST up reply actions  

Marginal by whose metrics?

Is he doing a marginal job because he isn’t meeting your expectations?

Is he doing a marginal job because the team didn’t start the season firing on all cylinders like they were in the second half of last season?

Is he doing a marginal job because he’s not running the team (style of play, rotation, substitution patterns, etc) that you think he should?

Before last night’s game the Blazers were one game ahead of where they were at the same period last year. Now a lot of people (including myself) expected the team to be further ahead than that. But isn’t it just possible that the people who are doing a marginal job are us fans in managing our expectations?

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Well said...

I think that at the least you can only say that the jury is out whether Nate can coach a team that doesn’t need to overachieve.

by gooddebate on Jan 4, 2010 10:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Nate prepared them? Is he a magician?

Maybe the players were just good. In fact maybe they should have been playing long before now. Bayless what?

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:37 AM PST up reply actions  

Might not be much different than the elite coaches

I was curious so I looked them up (through 1/2/10):

Players starting over 1 game and over 10 games

Boston 8 and 5
Cleveland 7 and 5
Orlando 10 and 7
Denver 9 and 5
LAL 7 and 6
Dallas 11 and 6
San Antonio 11 and 5
Portland 11 and 6
Utah 9 and 5

Players playing over 20 minutes/game:

Boston 8
Cleveland 7
Orlando 8
Denver 8
LAL 6
Dallas 8
San Antonio 7
Portland 9
Utah 8

Opening day lineup games lasted and lineups used:

Boston 26 games and 4 lineups
Cleveland 9 games and 4 lineups
Orlando 6 games and 7 lineups
Denver 6 games and 6 lineups
LAL 5 games and 3 lineups
Dallas 4 games and 6 lineups
San Antonio 4 games and 9lineups
Portland 5 games and 8 lineups
Utah 8 games and 5 lineups

Many of the changes were caused by injuries but at least San Antonio, Dallas and Utah benched healthy opening starters to find better combinations (along with Portland).

The above coaches all are reluctant to play a young player with 2 fouls early. It is part of their training to learn to play with fouls. Some veterans knows how to avoid fouls and they can be trusted by the coach to stay in the game. GO in particular needed to learn the lesson and apparently was getting it just before his latest injury. Remember also GO was on a limited minutes schedule to avoid another major injury. So he got his 24 minutes in games he sat the rest of the 1st half – just more in the 2nd half.

As far as getting yanked for mistakes only Sergio and Jerryd have complained and they needed to stop the mistakes. Neither had demonstrated additional prowess for playing more minutes when given the chance.

"I could almost fall asleep when he's got the ball," Demopoulos said of Roy. "That's how comfortable I feel with him. He always comes through."

by lee3022 on Jan 3, 2010 10:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Rec

Don’t you just hate it when the evidence doesn’t match up with public opinion?

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 1:44 PM PST up reply actions  

nate

is easily one of the main reasons we moved on from the jail-blazer era… so i don’t understand why people criticize him so much, i know that some people were annoyed about the issues early in the season, i was one of them, but thats happens with most teams and its just something that has to be worked out. at least we don’t have a coach that benches one of our best players… (Mike D’Antoni)

R.A.M.B.O. will rise again!

by TheNoPoFuzz on Jan 3, 2010 4:50 PM PST reply actions  

People criticize him so much ...

because they’re not sure he can take us from the “talented but improving” era to the “playoff contender” era. Jailblazers is old hat. With all the talent on this roster, “But Nate rescued us from the Jailblazer era” won’t fly. He needs to win.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jan 3, 2010 8:35 PM PST up reply actions  

This sums up the bad sentiments for Nate very well.

He’s not horrible my any means. He is improving. Do I think he is a championship-winning quality coach? No.

Play Bayless.
BRoy back.

by loyal_blazer on Jan 3, 2010 8:37 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

Lots of guys who aren't "championship-level" win championships.

There are only two guys who are championship-level on the Blazers right now: Brandon (because he’s a stud, duh) and Rudy (because he was on a championship team in Europe). When you’re talking about everyone else — including coaches — you’re talking about potential.

One of the most frustrating things about the year, for me, is that the whole Nate-thing has been put on hold because of the injuries. Whether or not Nate can make the next step has been postponed, big-time. He’s relatively young, is smart, and capable of change and growth (despite the BE meme). Can he bring us to the elite level? Good question. It’s not unlike the other question that’s been bugging me — will Oden ever reach his potential?

by Corvid on Jan 3, 2010 9:30 PM PST up reply actions  

one of the most frustrating things for me is..

that if the Blazers do win a championship with Nate it will “proof” that Nate is a great coach and if he doesn’t it will be “proof” that he isn’t. In my view great coaches do a good job motivating their players, running efficient offensive and defensive schemes, do well out of time outs, develop a culture or program that players fit into. I think Nate does almost all of these things well. One thing that has troubled me has been the apparent lack of communication between him and his players at times (roles, playing time etc). personally I think that our championship hopes ride a lot more on Oden than on Nate.

by vullkem116 on Jan 3, 2010 10:16 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

the front office

is the reason we moved from the jail blazer era…not nate.

I'm going on a Dave boycott until AK1984 is brought back.

"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia

by Philthyanimal on Jan 4, 2010 12:11 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

KP*

You meant the guy who drafted the players was responsible

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:36 AM PST up reply actions  

I like Nate

He gets his players to run through brick walls and I believe he is one of the better coaches in the league. However, there are obvious problems that were apparent even before all these injuries began. He seems to get outcoached quite often and his offensive scheme consists of three things: flex cut pass to the corner three, high pick and roll, and isolation for Brandon. I guarantee you Nate goes to sleep every night after praying for the health of Brandon Roy, because if Roy gets injured this team will have trouble scoring more than 85 points in a game on a consistent basis.
Another problem is preparedness. Looking back at last years playoffs, the Blazers looked completely unprepared for the Rockets and they have at many times looked equally unprepared this season. The Blazers have more talent than almost anyone else. They need to walk into every game thinking they will win and it’s Nate’s job to make sure they do that. Hopefully, this problem will disappear in time.
The last complaint I have about Nate is that he is too conservative. Yanking Greg or Joel because of foul trouble is a great way to lose control of the game. We’ve seen it over and over again. The Blazers build a big lead because of Oden, then pee it away because Nate is afraid of Greg fouling out. Seriously… How many games has Greg fouled out? Well, we now know that we can win without Greg and Joel, so what’s the harm in letting them foul out once in a while? And would it kill him to show some emotion once in a while??

"I been ridin' the midnight train, got ice water in my veins." -Bob Dylan
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Jan 3, 2010 4:52 PM PST reply actions  

Responses from a Nate supporter

Series against Rockets last year – Worst draw for the Blazers and they still could have won if they had woken up in Game 1 before getting down by 40 or 50 some points. I was disappointed they lost the series but it had to be hard to prepare for Game 1 when the entire fan base seemed just happy to be in the playoffs again (see thousands of fans packing Pioneer Square for a rally celebrating a return to the second season.) The future playoff performance of this team will be a better indicator of Nate’s ability than that series. Experience does matter in the NBA in the playoffs and this team badly needed to experience the playoffs.

Talent level – I think we do have, and have had, an extremely talented roster from 1-15 but much of that talent has been young. You can call that an excuse if you want, but Nate has been working with the youngest rotation in the league for two years and has produced more wins than losses.

Foul Trouble – This is the complaint I least understand. If Greg, Joel, and LA were guards I could understand, but all an oppossing coach has to do when a big man is in foul trouble is post him up and work for that next foul that will get him out of the game or send his penetrating guard right into the lane. It leaves the bigs unable to be aggressive and allows for easy scores. The only time he did it for LA, he actually came out and scored 12 in the third and led the Blazers to victory, so it has worked. It is also nice to have 4 fouls for Oden to work with in the second half instead of having to pull him immediately in the third when he draws number 4 in the first 2 minutes of the third quarter. It really is better to have players available to play without worrying about fouls instead of fouling them out in the first half or third quarter.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Jan 3, 2010 6:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Regarding fouls ...

There are valid arguments for both sides here. I too remember Greg coming out a couple times in the 3rd quarter like gangbusters and taking a game over after sitting with foul trouble. On the other hand, I believe Greg must learn to play “heady” basketball when he has a couple fouls. We need him on the floor plain and simple. The argument that opposing coaches will send their players after Greg if he plays with fouls holds no water for me. If Greg is playing smart basketball then what opposing coaches do should matter very little.

“But the fan base is really happy!” is hardly justification for being unprepared for that game 1 debacle. Perhaps even more damning for Nate than the team’s level of preparation was the lack of in-game adjustments when we were getting blown out. If memory serves, Yao was killing us every time down, and we simply kept playing straight up with Joel. Why not front Yao? Why not double? Why not put in somebody to try to light a spark? I agree it was a tough match-up and I don’t think we would have won that series even with solid preparation. You need to feel the true intensity of a playoff series before you can learn from it. But I was still disappointed with Nate’s performance in that series.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jan 3, 2010 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Fouls

Honestly, I think the 2 foul thing was a way for Nate to put it on Greg to stay in the game. He would never criticize his players in the media in this way but he had to figure out a way to get Greg to stop committing so many stupid fouls. He was starting to figure it out too. And Nate even relaxed the rule a couple times before the injury if I remember right. It was his way of forcing Greg to play “heady” and still have him available for the second half. If he would have left him out there some nights, he would have fouled out in the first quarter.
I have no idea how to respond to your comment about opposing coaches. Why would they not force the action and try to draw the foul to get Greg out of the game? It would be dumb not to. Especially with how refs have been calling Greg and his tendency to drop his arms instead of stay up straight. So you are right, that if Greg is playing smart coaches shouldn’t be able to get him out of the game but he was not playing smart most nights.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Jan 3, 2010 10:42 PM PST up reply actions  

My point is ...

how will he learn to play smarter ball by sitting on the bench. Pulling him out usually did us little good. On the contrary it helped the other team. Sure opposing coaches will force the action, but that doesn’t mean Greg has to keep committing stupid fouls. He can still be a force even with 2 fouls. I’d wager him sitting back a little more because of the fouls makes him a better defender since he doesn’t need to body players to go up and block their shots.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jan 4, 2010 10:23 AM PST up reply actions  

It is called motivation.

Greg wants to play. More than that, he wants to live up to the high expectations and show his teammates and the fans that he is capable of carrying a big burden for this team. He also knows that he can’t do this sitting on the bench.

Nate understands all of this and thus uses it as a motivational tool. He knows Greg is willing to work hard. But Nate also wants him to think at the same time. He apparently came to the conclusion that Greg’s desire to play would create the focus he needed to play smarter. One can argue over this reasoning, but it is certainly not on the fringe and seemed to be working.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 1:53 PM PST up reply actions  

The Pioneer Square deal should have had zero effect on preparation

It was a PR stunt that basically backfired and ended up making the players feel more pressure than they were already feeling. If anything, it shows that Nate wasn’t focused. He should’ve said “Thanks but no thanks. We need to watch tape, not throw balls to the kids downtown.”

They went in without any kind of plan and got their butts kicked in game 1. Then, they panicked and let Brandon take over which is the only reason we didn’t get swept by the Rockets. Okay, the youth argument might’ve held water for a couple guys who are obviously important, but that argument should have been thrown out a long time ago. This team is not as young as you’d like to think. Brandon is basically at the level of a 6 year veteran, Joel is a grizzled vet, Blake is a vet who has been in pressure games before, Travis is a vet, Rudy is a vet (in terms of professional games played). The Blazers had enough experienced guys to be able to come out swinging. Houston had Aaron Brooks who is just as young and inexperienced as any Blazer, but outplayed all of our young guys.

"I been ridin' the midnight train, got ice water in my veins." -Bob Dylan
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Jan 3, 2010 8:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Emotional let down was the effect

They were recieved as if they had won the championship and in reality they had reached the goal they set for themselves at the beginning of the season. They let up and Nate has to take some of that blame…but if you said at the beginning of the season: Blazers 54 wins and a first round out, fans would have taken that as a success. And it was a successful season to build on. If he can’t build on it and make the team better I get where the anti-Naters are coming from but to somehow look back and say he failed last year because they didn’t make it out of the first round is based on an ex post facto expectation.

As for youth, this year is the first year I think you can let go of the youth argument. Four rookies were integrated into the rotation last year and they won 54 games. Brooks had Yao, Scola, Artest, and Batier as foundation guys in the rotation. All battle tested veterans and all made a huge difference in that series. Our guys who played in that series saw what it will take to win a series this year. And they might just do it with how crazy things have been.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Jan 3, 2010 10:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not even going to get into the bizarre substitution patterns

"I been ridin' the midnight train, got ice water in my veins." -Bob Dylan
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice

by koyote on Jan 3, 2010 8:23 PM PST up reply actions  

He gets his players to run through brick walls but they are frequently outhustled?

Odd. I wish instead of getting them to run through walls, he would instead get them to get back on defense, block out, get buckets in the paint, foul someone hard, etc etc

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:35 AM PST up reply actions  

I have been on the fire Nate campain from time to time

just because the team is doing well now, when they have no option on how to play, doesn’t mean they struggled mightly early in the season when they had so many options on how to play. Nate mishandled the starting pg spot, he mishandled the offense, and the defense going into this season. These few issues are major issues to me for Nate to continue as the future coach of this team. Nate is a very good coach, but he needs to improve to be able to lead this team to a championship.

by usmcr3049 on Jan 3, 2010 6:27 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Bayless and Miller labeled as "malcontents" ?

Please. Anyone would have been frustrated but they have always been professionals, not detrimental to the locker room.

Basket's that way, Chief!

by OneTrickPony on Jan 3, 2010 7:28 PM PST reply actions  

Is this "great coaching" or more of a "looky what I found"?

Nate had a tough job coming into this year, no doubt. With all the talent we have on paper, it’s gotta be hard to figure out those lineups. Ultimately an NBA head coach has to make some tough decisions, though, and I think Nate has had a hard time with that. He plays favorites with some guys, and much of the time his in-game substitutions make little sense. He has a quick hook with guys who need a slow hook, and he has a slow hook with guys who need a quick hook. I think Nate has lucked out in a sense with all our injuries. I can’t help but wonder if he had a full crew to work with if this team wouldn’t still be struggling. I guess we’ll find out when he starts getting some guys back in a few more weeks.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jan 3, 2010 8:27 PM PST reply actions  

thank you for an excelent post.

I don’t pretend to be always excited by what Nate does. I also don’t pretend that I know how to coach the Trailblazers better than he or any other coach that we have had (something many who post here obviously do). I think that it is ridiculous that half the posts above make the claim that we would be better if Nate did (insert Anything here).

by vullkem116 on Jan 3, 2010 8:36 PM PST reply actions   2 recs

I've always supported Nate McMillan

but there’s no doubt in my mind that he really made some big mistakes this season. Some people have already mentioned it, but he handled the PG situation horribly. His MO is to give every player a chance for minutes, but he clearly has had a bias for Steve Blake. Maybe Blake works harder in practice, but McMillan has given too many liberties to Blake. He started Blake and gave him the majority of minutes at preaseason despite the fact that Andre Miller played better, and he let Blake have the starting job for too long when it was obvious he was struggling. McMillan just hasn’t give Miller enough of a fair opportunity, and Miller has every right to be upset.

Nate McMillan also has trouble adapting to his players. Part of the reason why the Blazers play so methodically is because the offense is ran through Brandon Roy. Roy has expressed multiple times that he isn’t as comfortable at playing an up tempo game. However, many of the players such as Aldridge, Miller, and Outlaw are perfectly suited for this kind of game. Our players are extremely athletic, and it’s a shame we don’t use them to their full potential. This is a complaint that’s been expressed before, but it’s especially relevant this season when we have the right PG for more fast break opportunities.

The Kings have the best bench I’ve seen. There are easily 14 guys on this team good enough for every bench in the league. Now if we could only get some starters, I’d totally jizz in my pants.

Kings fan

by dyshooter182 on Jan 3, 2010 8:39 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

With Denver's loss tonight...

…Portland is #1 in the Northwest Division. I think Nate deserves some credit for that.

52 & 10

by Ryan11 on Jan 3, 2010 10:06 PM PST reply actions  

Nate is the one

Define a championship coach. Doc Rivers? Yes, he lucked out with the “big three” (much like Phil Jackson did with Jordan, Shaq, and Kobe); however, he coached the heck out of that team to blow out the Lakers. Before the championship he would have been considered an “underdog” coach if you consider his stint in Orlando and his years in Boston leading up to the arrival of Allen and Garnett. I think we need stop this “Nate is not a championship-caliber coach” talk and give him a chance to prove that he can return the Blazers to glory.

52 & 10

by Ryan11 on Jan 4, 2010 4:27 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

some, sure. Most? nah

that would go to the players

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:34 AM PST up reply actions  

I assume Leeroy..

you mean players like Steve Blake.

  RoadBlazer

by Roadblazer on Jan 4, 2010 7:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Blake has been awful this season so no

More like Bayless, Roy, Pendergraph, Joel (pre-injury), Miller

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:56 AM PST up reply actions  

He's been good the last ten games though

I’ve been killing him all year, but credit where credit is due. He looks like last year Steve these days.

"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview

by BlazersOrBust on Jan 4, 2010 9:49 AM PST up reply actions  

your sarcasm detector is broken

And I think Blake has played some stellar help defense that he gets no credit for. His shooting slump is over. I mentioned him because our disdain for him is palpable.

   RoadBlazer

by Roadblazer on Jan 4, 2010 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Injuries force our team to play everybody and eliminate most of Nate's rotation control and the players respond extemely well,

And Nate should get a bunch of credit? Please. I’ll agree that injuries are the best thing that could have happened to Nate after how horribly he was handling the team at the start of the season, but that’s not credit. That’s luck.

by Coastie07 on Jan 3, 2010 10:42 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Nate is something of a magician, BUT...

I’m with Flapbreaker and BlackNoiseNW above in the frustration of three years running with massive apprehension and confusion over the starting lineup. Everything about it. From whether the best guys are starting to whether they have to “earn” it to whether it’s a best fit or even whether it’s who’s playing in the 4th quarter. It’s chronic. I don’t see it as a sign of a good coach.

But there are other issues as well.

This team has had horrible perimeter defense for every year Nate has been here despite arriving with a reputation for a defensive-minded coach. In particular, this team has never been able to handle the P&R, which has been discussed here ad nauseum. Please note that the entire back court has changed personnel several times and there has been no improvement.

Another well-chronicled issue is the pace of the offense. Nate says he wants a fast one… that he’s pleading with guys to run up the court… that he even invokes some kind of rule to get across the half-court line by a certain time on the shot clock. But we don’t see it on the court. Again, I don’t see elite coaches doing that. They either have a slow pace—and they don’t apologize for it. Or they have a faster pace—and they figure out a way to do it. They don’t fail at making it happen.

More importantly, I look at what happens to players that leave here and also those that arrive. You can make snide comments about “foreign/white guy” (which I assume is referencing Sergio because there certainly isn’t a great chorus of Blake love that I’ve noticed around here when he was starting) but it also involves Jarret Jack and even Von Wafer along with Sergio. These guys seem to do a lot better after they leave. Guys who get here seem to struggle (Joel being the exception here). That’s my biggest problem with Nate: he doesn’t seem to be able to develop talent.

That being said, I was impressed last year with the way Nate is able to contrive wins by the what appears to be the force of his personality. I’m very impressed with that ability again this year. someone above said he can get his players to play for him. I can’t dispute that. In fact, he may be the single best coach in the NBA at this aspect of the game.

But I don’t think that’s enough. It’s great at this moment in the season.

I want a stable coach. I’m jealous of the Utah Jazz and their coaching stability. I wish that we had just kept Rick A all of these years. If someone can show me that Nate has potential—like his players—to improve in this way, I’m ready to hear it. But I haven’t really felt it yet with my own eyes watching the game.

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Jan 3, 2010 10:50 PM PST reply actions   3 recs

point

and rec

It took my two years to come up with an avatar and sig
and this is the best I could come up with.

by einman77 on Jan 4, 2010 3:52 AM PST up reply actions  

well none of the guys you mentioned are any good

McRoberts? Juan Dixon? Dikau? Fred Jones? Telfair??

I mean cmon…

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Name them

James Jones, Magloire, who?

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Jan 4, 2010 12:06 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

That's a Fair Question

Though I think it’s a subject for a longer post and probably the advanced stat guys can do a better job.

Let’s start with a couple of givens:
1) Frye is certainly doing much, much better.

2) Outlaw—no matter whether you love his game or hate it—has taken a L-O-N-G time to develop and many (like me) would argue he’s still developing. Certainly a glance through the BEdge archives is enough to show many, many people arguing that he needs more time (though much less this year than last)

3) Webster has taken a similarly L-O-N-G time to develop.

4) Let’s also take it as a given that it was at least embarrassing to see Von Wafer light up the world after we had him under our nose—needed guard minutes at the time—and never used him.

This is a good place to start, because I think most people would argue that where McMillan may be under-performing in developing players is in PGs and young players. This also allows us to ignore a lot of fringe players you mention (Diogu, McRoberts,Shavlik, etc). So let’s look at the most famous and divisive example: Sergio and JJ.

Again, apologies for the rudimentary stats. I’d welcome more advanced stuff even if it costs me the argument.

Blazers had Jack in the 06-07 and 07-08 season. Then he moves on to Indiana and later Toronto.

Jack’s production in two years went DOWN in the categories of minutes, assists, turnovers, and points. He went up a bit in rebounds. Immediately following in Indiana, he improved in every one of these categories but—tellingly—didn’t return to his averages that he enjoyed in his first season with Portland. This season in Toronto so far, he’s down again in these categories but still improved in assists, turnovers, and points from his 2007 season with Portland. These (admittedly feeble) statistics would argue what I feel is instinctively true: Jack declined as a player in his time under Nate and has since improved with both Indiana and Toronto. Has he become a starter or a star? No, he hasn’t. But no one can possibly argue that he was over-achieving with Portland.

I define a great coach as someone who gets his players to over-achieve.

Let’s turn to the mighty Sergio.

In the same seasons he worsened in every category—just like Jack did—in his time with McMillan with the exception of turnovers (though his minutes were reduced by about 25% so maybe that doesn’t count). In 2008, he improved dramatically in each of these categories. In fact, his best stats yet. Paradoxically, this is when everyone except the biggest Blazer fanatics thought he was living up to his worst potential and the market for him (the infamous “trade” to Sacramento) proved that the GMs felt the same. So far in Sacramento, he’s playing well and averaging his best point total yet—while keeping his assists up—despite starting the season as a veritable afterthought and playing behind Tyreke Evans.

So, between the 2006 and 2007 seasons, both PGs worsened. Both were unhappy. Both were riddled with playing time issues. Can anyone claim they were overachieving?

Bayless? Rudy? Batum? These are other players that I feel like probably would explode

The issue for me is not is Nate a good coach. I think he is. The question is he a great coach who can get players to perform beyond their capabilities with a merely good coach. Here, I think Nate falls short of the mark.

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Jan 4, 2010 5:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Interesting argument...

1) I think we can at least agree that Frye is doing better. I think he performed well in Portland when he was called upon and got consistent minutes. I don’t see how he was going to get those minutes behind Outlaw, Joel, Oden, and LA.

2) Outlaw has certainly taken a long time to develop but I would say Nate has gotten a lot out of him in the past two and a half years. More than I ever expected. But this is a player that still routinely misses rotations on defense and looks lost at times on offense. I have a hard time thinking that those are a result of not being taught and reminded constantly where he needs to be. At some point these kinds of mistakes belong to the player and not the coach. Nate has actually excelled in getting valuable contributions from him.

3) Webster is another interesting question. He has gone from being a one dimensional player to a pretty good defender and rebounder. He has had ups and downs but is emerging as a tough competitor most nights.

4) Wafer is a head case that is not in the NBA anymore. Houston was able to get some production out of him for a year but Rick did not seem too thrilled with his decision making or attitude. I don’t get why Nate takes a hit for seeing it a year earlier and not wanting to waste minutes on the guy.

5) JJ – I can only say what I think would have happened if he had stayed and Rudy/Bayless had not come into the picture. He would have come off the bench as a combo guard playing with Roy or Blake and he would have been a fine player. Turnovers probably would have gone down a bit as he gained experience but he would have been used to penetrate and dish while Roy was out, and played good team defense in Nate’s system. I don’t see him as a player who has blossomed after getting out from under Nate’s thumb. He has taken what he offered here to other teams and produced pretty much the same.

6. Sergio – Honestly…I have no idea what to say. I will maybe be able to form an opinion on him five years from now. Did he regress because of Nate or was it his inability to adjust to defenses being ready for him? You can probably guess which way I lean but the guy has such great court vision it is hard for me to say he will be a perennial 15 minute a night guy.

I honestly rooted for all these guys as Blazers and will continue to hope they do well wherever they end up. I have no ill will towards them. I just have a hard time looking at what Nate is achieving with the guys he is putting on the court and coming up with the conclusion that he cannot develop or use players effectively.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Jan 4, 2010 7:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I think I see where we are...

I agree with the majority of your assessments of these players. (I loved watching Sergio play… but I loved Robert Pack back in the day too so I’ll probably end up loving Mills as well. A defect in my fandom, probably.)

The issue with me is the definition of a good or great coach. These are people who get more out of the player than we can reasonably expect. What I see in your responses—and I think they’re largely accurate—is that Nate tended to get what one would reasonably expect from players and little or nothing more.

I’m deviating from my original argument a bit—I’m sure you notice—but you’ve persuaded me and changed my viewpoint a bit with your counterpoints (that’s the point of a discussion, right?).

If Jack and Surge can go elsewhere and basically enjoy the same (or better) production than they had here, why then we might as well have had those coaches insetad of Nate.

If Web and Outlaw are sort of progressing along however one would sort of expect from a half-baked fan perspective, then we could’ve had anyone at all coaching them who does such a thing adequately instead of Nate, right?

That’s why I think the Von Wafer kid is so interesting. Here he is a developmental league call-up. Nate can’t do anything with him. He goes to Houston. VW is not in the league anymore and is a headcase—let’s say that’s completely true. But that’s exactly what makes Rick A’s utilization of VW so outstanding: he got something big out of this guy in the short time he had him, head-case and all. That appears to be something Nate can’t do.

And that’s what I want out of the coach. I regard Pritch as something of a mystical-level GM. He seems to find players in the draft that no one else can. His trading, I’m not so sure about but he’s a miracle-worker in the draft.

I want that same miracle action out of the coach. I want mediocre shooters brimming with such confidence that they rain down threes when they shouldn’t. I want 6’5" guys so infused with defensive prowess that they’re out-boarding 7’0" giants and dunking over their heads. I want fat guys losing weight in order to get out on the fast break.

Great coaches make unreasonable expectations true.

Winning with the kind of injury load we’ve had has been an example of that and I think Nate deserves all the credit in the world for it.

But if that’s what he’s good at, then he’s good at temporary situations… not the long-term one of developing young players that meshes specifically with KP’s skill set.

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Jan 5, 2010 6:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Wasn't Wafer a trade with Denver for Green?

Wafer’s problem too was that his game was too similar to Roy and Bayless

I'm not saying Miller is better than Blake or that Blake should start over Miller, all I'm saying is Miller the on the court Zach Randolph of point guards.

by tominhawaii on Jan 5, 2010 7:31 AM PST up reply actions  

I share your affliction for Blazer bench players.

I was a big Pack fan and loved seeing Sergio get minutes. I still think Victor could contribute (ditto for Shavlick) and have a soft spot for Ha.

But I part ways with you from there.

Lets start with your contention that a great coach is one that develops talent and/or gets more out of their players than others have (not exactly the same thing, mind you). There are two arguments against this:
   - it is only one aspect of coaching. One would have to show that it was the most important aspect to being a great coach. (Ex. Is Phil Jackson considered to be a great developer of talent?)
   - does a coach fail at this requirement unless he develops or gets to over achieve every one of his players? If he does so for 7 of 10 or even 1 out of every 2? What is the standard for developing?

You can pick a guy (or guys) from the roster, past or present and say they didn’t develop until they left or that they are slow in developing. But that does not account for those players who have developed or for the fact that more than almost any other team Portland had an over abundance of young players needing to develop. Is it an equal task to develop a young guy when you have 4 or 5 veterans that don’t need as much of your time as it is trying to develop basically your entire 12 or 15 man roster? It does not seem valid to argue that McMillan can’t “develop” players or get them to over achieve when on whole he has managed to get the entire team to over achieve each of the past three seasons and again now.

On some other points, I disagree with your assessment of Webster. He was a highschooler who was playing significant minutes in just his third year. His being derailed by injury last year can’t be held against the coach and this season, despite his shooting being off, Martell is answering all the critics who said he was unathletic, couldn’t rebound, couldn’t drive and couldn’t play defense.

Wafer? You want to argue that some short term success with Houston proves that Nate didn’t utilize him well or recognize the talent he had? Wafer is an undersized shooting guard whose only reputation for defense is being poor at it. Who was Nate supposed to take minutes from in order to let Wafer do his thing?

As for getting mediocre shooters to become league leading 3-point specialists and 6-5 forwards being all-star defenders and rebounders, that’s letting fantasy get in the way of reality. I’m assuming that you are engaging in a bit of hyperbole and not serious.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 2:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Murky Statistics

We’re kind of entering the realm of needing the multiverse to answer these questions. Really, you’re asking me to prove that these players would’ve been progressed faster on another team (the multiverse would provide that answer) or that a different coach on the existing team would’ve done better (another multiverse problem).

We, of course, don’t get to look at what’s going on in the rest of the multiverse (yet). That leaves us with a statistical problem.

It is not, I think, without some resolution.

We know what one can reasonably expect from the general high school player entering the draft as far as reaching their potential. Ditto for early college entrants and college seniors given their relative position in the draft.

I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to look at what’s going on with other teams when they receive players or the players they jettison and we receive. But we’ve already been over this, so let’s go back to the former.

It seems that all-star players make immediate, palpable impacts when they first hit the court. This seems true not only for high schoolers like Garnett and Magic Johnson but even 2nd round picks like Cliff Robinson. The exception here is the lamentable situation with Jermain O’Neal.

So, despite expectations, it would seem that despite high draft picks, Telfair, Outlaw, and Webster were not all-stars. We can’t hold Nate at fault for not developing these guys into all-stars. BEdge would do well to give up on these guys being all stars, ever. (It does raise interesting expectations for Nic Batum.) I’m sure that there are exceptions for this but at least grant me that as soon as these players get minutes, they at least immediately show their all-star credentials. (This would bring Jermain O’Neal back into play and gives us some hope for Bayless.)

So again, we can’t blame Nate for these guys not being all-stars. (Insert rant here about not recognizing Bayless sooner if he IS an all-star.)

So really—and I’m adjusting my argument again as you and others force me to think—the coaching in this aspect comes down to two things:

1) Developing decent NBA players into good role players and
2) Creating a system that allows players to flourish

Any coach anywhere can coach all-stars. Great coaches are able to do the two things above and keep the chemistry at a something below a simmering boil so that all the players get along with each other (chemistry). Nate has this last part absolutely handled. I agree with that 100%. Dude is chemistry personified.

But that’s only one out f the three criteria I want to talk about. I think we can agree that Nate is adequate on developing players in an accelerated fashion or an over-achieving fashion. To this, I merely point out that Outlaw was unable to contribute until this last year and Martell was basically on the same trajectory. A glance around the league is enough to show that this is a bit long. Certainly not early—even for role players.

The other is a system. I’m a fan of basketball but a statistician for football (my gambling problem). It’s well-known that a system in football (for offense at least) is oftentimes way more important than the players. Michael Lewis talks about this in his book “Blindside” though the argument has been made elsewhere. He talks about Bill Walsh taking just about any QB and making them great (Montana, Steve Young, Grbac) and these same QBs kind of struggling elsewhere. Ditto—somewhat—for the West Coast offense that he made. Extending this to basketball, I want to say that a good system will accept players and make them better for being in the system.

Now, here is a real problem. Portland’s offense is—if slow—pretty dang efficient. So how can I criticize his system? Well, we don’t see players coming to the team sliding into awesome use. We do see players entering other systems and off this team performing the same or better. So while we have an efficient system, this seems to be peculiarly centered upon the all-stars given the roster. I will accept that front-court players seem to do well (see this year’s rookies) but if we’re looking at guard play, the system seems pretty bad. In fact, the SF camping at the 3-spot is sort of infamous. It sure is in Spain and France.

The system also seems somewhat maladaptive. That is, it seems to do one thing well. It does that thing well and it wins games. But unless pressured, it doesn’t seem particularly flexible.

Let’s move to Phil Jackson. He seems to have a system that allows players to excel. I’m not sure about his development but it would seem that his triangle offense is quite effective and quite flexible. Where Nate might have chemistry handled, I would say that Phil has system handled.

Let’s loo at Sloan. I’m not so sure about system but he sure seems to get the most out of whatever role players he’s given. From Hornacek and all the way on. Utah, not exactly a draw, is a well-spring of sound performance for role players. What would Sloan do with the likes of Webster, Outlaw, Sergio, Bayless and the rest?

So to answer your question, no one will ever be able to provide the statistical robustness you’re looking for absent a multiverse. Of course, that’s part of the fun of actually watching the games. But we can look around the league and see behavior, trends, and patterns. Generalities if you will. On this basis—and without doing deep statistical explorations which would be possible (I’d love to see Synergy tackle some of this)—it seems to me that Nate is adequate in most respects of development and system but just only adequate.

So that’s where I am. I’m not chomping at the bit to get rid of him but I’m certainly receptive to other candidates. Certainly, I think some of this praise is unwarranted.

PS—to the day he left I thought there must be something to Ha. Even when it seemed clear that I myself could defeat him one-on-one.

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Jan 5, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

There is a lot here - too much to try to respond to completely.

I’ll just say the following:

1) I don’t necessarily agree that anyone can coach a team of all-stars. (I don’t watch the all-star game any more because I think it is lousy basketball.) Talent wise they probably win a lot of games, but you would be counting on there being no personality or agenda conflicts and that one or two players would assert dominance.

Don’t know how to do block quotes so

“We know what one can reasonably expect from the general high school player entering the draft as far as reaching their potential. Ditto for early college entrants and college seniors given their relative position in the draft.”

I wouldn’t make this claim. We know that some have an immediate impact, others have no impact at all and some take awhile before developing into reasonably decent to good players. I’d want to see some of that statisical analysis to back this one up.

“Outlaw was unable to contribute until this last year and Martell was basically on the same trajectory. A glance around the league is enough to show that this is a bit long. Certainly not early—even for role players.”

Same here. A really quick glance might tell you this, but that is likely due to a quick glance only showing you the most obvious data. Guys that are successful early will stand out. But that tells you nothing with regard to what percentage does so or how long it takes the average HS player to become a dependable rotation player.

As to systems, I would be reaching beyond my knowledge level to discuss that intelligently. The deepest I go is to believe that there is more than one successful system or model and that execution is as important as the system itself.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 5:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Getting players to over-achieve

Przybilla has progressed and is providing more than you would expect talent-wise.

Steve Blake has over-achieved.

A case can be made that Nic over-achieved last year.

Our rookies are probably over-achieving right now, and Juwan certainly is.

Brandon has over-achieved relative to anything anyone projected.

#5 #10 #52 #88

by jscot on Jan 5, 2010 8:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Perhaps...

Now we’re at a place where it’s hard to understand whether the player’s talent was unexpectedly higher or the coach was getting more out of the player. Unless we gain access to the multiverse where the players went to different teams, we’ll never know.

Nate’s front court work w/ blue-collar guys does seem to be impressive. I’ll give you Pryz and Pendergraph on that basis.

I’m not sure I’ll give you Juwan… I think he would perform as he’s doing for any coach, anywhere. That guy is a pleasant blast of good air.

Blake? Brandon? Are they doing better because of Nate? That’s not so clear to me. Certainly, Nate trusts those players a great deal and gives them some freedom. They have certainly benefited from that. But wouldn’t an elite coach have instilled some defense and off-ball movement into Brandon’s game? Is Blake even comfortable with the trust he’s been given? Dunno…

And other backcourt rookies? Has Nate’s handling of rookies Jack, Sergio, Taurean, Nic, Bayless, and Rudy been exemplary? It seems to me that they’ve been fraught w/ uncertainties about roles, freedom to play, and rotational/minutes controversies. (And I still remember the times when we are all screaming on the BEdge for Nate to play Joel more in the 4th quarter for defensive rebounding when he was insisting we needed offense.) I never felt like Nate had communicated clearly with these parties and that the lack of communication and certainty was counterproductive.

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Jan 5, 2010 11:27 AM PST up reply actions  

would have to say

that when Portland gives up on a player, it’s broken and can’t be fixed (or at least it’s whizzed and fizzed but still doesn’t perform as expected)….However, they will sometimes, hang on to players too long (giving their investment a chance to mature) but sometimes the market dictates change and better fits are out there to trade for…It’s always a gamble and easy to second guess…..

by WyEast on Jan 6, 2010 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I just can't get the arguments against Nate

I read them. I understand (kind of). I think it’s insane that you hold the idea of an open competition for the starting job against him. There were people who brought different skills to the positions. Figuring out who fits in best best is not only a good thing, it shows flexibility (which he again is getting knocked for). The schemes and substitutions? I can’t really go into this because obviously everyone is a brilliant coaching mind here. Sorry to spit a little venom, but my question is who should be the coach? That’s what I want to know? You’re not happy now, what would make you happy. This guy is great and we are lucky to have a coach of his caliber. Thanks for the post Manzell.

It took my two years to come up with an avatar and sig
and this is the best I could come up with.

by einman77 on Jan 3, 2010 11:11 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Rec

Says it all.

"Do or Do not there is no Try"
Yoda

by Bakasama on Jan 3, 2010 11:18 PM PST up reply actions  

This becomes even more obvious when you read Timbo's "other side" expose's.

I have not read a single one yet that didn’t include at least one, “I can’t wait until [our coach] is finally canned!” comment from whatever team we’ve beat that night, and some from the ones we didn’t beat. It’s about as ubiquitous as the refs sucking.

And it’s sort of a dead end argument since the age old coach vs. floor talent argument will rage to the end of eternity. If the team loses it’s the coach and if the team wins or performs well, it’s in spite of him (thus Coastie’s comment about Nate being lucky that injuries have magically made the team better) or vice versa. There’s really no way to prove or disprove one side or the other unless the coach in question is eliminated entirely from the equation, and even then you’re just restarting the process with someone new.

by zaruga on Jan 3, 2010 11:54 PM PST up reply actions  

The difference between Nate and the other coaches you mention is that they have a proven track record

There is absolutely no evidence that Nate is a top tier coach. He doesn’t have the record or accomplishments to compete with Adelman, Pop, Phil, etc etc.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:31 AM PST up reply actions  

If you mean he's been coaching for less than 25 years, (something you can't say about Pop, Adelman, or Phil)

then I’d say you are correct. If you think Nate hasn’t had accomplishments, then I disagree.

On Nate’s watch, the Blazers entire culture has changed from Jailblazer to solid citizen, while the win totals have gone up an average of 11 per year. Nate was selected by Team USA to prepare the league’s best players for international competition, in which they won handily. Those same top players have nothing but compliments for Nate and his coaching. Nate has taken two different teams from the lottery to the playoffs this decade.

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Jan 4, 2010 7:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Doesn't matter, he still doesn't have the pedigree

You thinking he will in 25 years is wishful thinking

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Boo this

you’re not a psychic — definitive statements about what will happen in the next 25 years and deriding the viewpoint of somebody who disagrees with you is uncool.

"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview

by BlazersOrBust on Jan 4, 2010 9:51 AM PST up reply actions  

It is not uncool.

He is entitled to his opinion.

It could be argued that it isn’t very intelligent. But then again Leeroy could be psychic.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 2:56 PM PST up reply actions  

As someone who regularly reads blogs around the league, I totally endorse this... There are 30 teams in the NBA and 30 of those have elements of their fanbase who want a new coach.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Jan 4, 2010 6:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I likewise am puzzled at the surity of condemnation of Nate

There are so many points of data that we have no clue about – opponent scouting reports, Synergy Sports analysis, long-term development plans, individual player development, and more. Even the things we can see we tend to selectively tune out.

The offense is based on Brandon Roy, post players and shooters. Those three components are part of the collective decision agreed to by coaches and management. Anyone who does not fit those descriptions had better play great defense. All the offense arguments against Nate seem to be disagreements with the base offensive plan. It was #1 in the league last year in offensive rating.

As for defense – that is learned. Players mature and gain instincts about the play on the floor and skills to react to that play. Anthony and Wade both got it this year from being on the USA team with Nate as the defensive coach. Our guys are a few years behind them and will get better each year. Losing Nic hurt a lot.

Even more important is that Paul Allen and KP are actively engaged with the team and will know better than any of us when a coaching change is needed. My hope is Nate can become the next Jerry Sloan and spend 20 years here. Larry Miller knew a bit about building an organization and stayed with Jerry from the beginning through the ups and downs. It has made the Jazz a model franchise in that regard. A stability that allows the team to draft a particular skill set in its players and keep them their whole career (at least the best ones). Portland is drafting around Nate as well to maintain the stability and produce championship contenders.

"I could almost fall asleep when he's got the ball," Demopoulos said of Roy. "That's how comfortable I feel with him. He always comes through."

by lee3022 on Jan 4, 2010 12:00 AM PST reply actions  

If the Blazers are drafting around Nate then you can kiss a title goodbye

You don’t draft players based on a coach, especially one without a proven track record.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:32 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

As stated they draft around a philosophy and Nate fits that philosophy

Nate is not the reason we will win championships but he is a key part of the reason. You can see for yourself the effort these guys give for him. That is always the killer for a coach – when he loses the locker room. The first point I made stands – the experts are not posting in the blog – they are being paid for their skills and have demonstrated their advantage over the league for the past several years. Their decision data is far more complete than ours and with consecutive sellouts are convincing the community to buy in as well.

Anyway perhaps you can enjoy this amazing team as it demonstrates the depth of character (culture) that the team has and fights through adversity. From here it is an amazing sight.

"I could almost fall asleep when he's got the ball," Demopoulos said of Roy. "That's how comfortable I feel with him. He always comes through."

by lee3022 on Jan 5, 2010 1:23 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

There are things that Nate could do better

But I don’t really see a compelling reason that he needs to be replaced. Overall, even though some things he does frustrate me, I can’t really justify firing him. And in many ways he is to be commended.

That is, unless we then promote Monty Williams to head coach. That guy has the potential to be a great NBA head coach.

by jamon51 on Jan 4, 2010 12:28 AM PST reply actions  

Um...Nate was forced into these circumstances

That said he hasn’t been horribly outcoached lately like he was earlier in the year.

But if the regular rotation players hadn’t all been hurt, I think the team would’ve underachieved. There was certainly no evidence pre-injuries that Nate had a handle on the situation.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Jan 4, 2010 7:30 AM PST reply actions  

Jeez, you'd probably be after Pops, too

After all, the Spurs were thought preseason to be the number 2 team in the West…

Sometimes, when a team doesn’t win close games, it’s not actually the coaches fault. Luck has a big role in all games, the coach and players can only try to do the thing that gives them the best chance of success, there’s never a guarentee it’s going to work, especially since those other guys get paid to win also.

If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer

by Clevelander among roses on Jan 4, 2010 7:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Those Cream Puffs aren't so weak

We won in Memphis, New Orleans, and Charlotte, and people said they were Cream Puffs.

Memphis is at .500, and is 10-5 at home. They have home wins against Dallas, Cleveland, and Denver — but not Portland. Memphis may not be the toughest place in the league to win, but it certainly isn’t easy to win there. Their only home losses are to Detroit (first game of the season), Portland, Milwaukee, OKC, and Boston — so only one really bad loss, to the Pistons. I’d say that’s a pretty good win to get on the road — Cleveland couldn’t get one there.

New Orleans is half a game under .500, and 13-3 at home. Their only home losses are Portland, Toronto (who is just under .500), and NYK — one bad loss. Home wins include Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Denver, Miami, and Houston. That is a quality win to get on the road. They only had a horrible record at the time because of a brutal road schedule — they’ve been very good at home, and a lot of good teams would love to have had that “cream puff” win that we got there. And don’t tell me Chris Paul was hurt — we were beating them and shutting him down before he got hurt (3 points in 31 minutes).

Charlotte — they are 11-4 at home. Home losses are to Orlando, Portland, Boston, and Utah. Home wins include Atlanta, Toronto, Cleveland, and Denver. Looks to me like a tough place to win, where only good teams are getting wins and some really good teams are losing.

Those look like three quality road wins to me. Sure, beating those teams in Portland wouldn’t be anything to say we’re doing great, but winning those games on the road was a really solid accomplishment which a lot of fans are under-valuing because they are looking at overall record, rather than the difficulty of a road win.

We also had a road win at OKC pre-injury, which most people thought at the time was no big deal, but they aren’t an easy team to beat. And a lot of fans bashed us for the home Memphis loss pre-injury, but Memphis has big wins at Miami and Phoenix, too.

We were accomplishing more pre-injuries than many fans want to give us credit for. We weren’t looking like a championship team, but we were getting a lot of wins in games that weren’t as easy as they looked on the surface.

#5 #10 #52 #88

by jscot on Jan 4, 2010 9:09 AM PST up reply actions   2 recs

Regardless of how they've played since then

Most of those teams were simply playing terribly at the time we had played them. We were the 6th game in the middle of a 7 game losing streak for Memphis, who have now jettisoned AI and are playing much better without him. The Hornets had just fired Byron Scott, and have no finally let Collison and Thornton play minutes and show that they are actually good players. We were the 4th game in a 7 game losing streak for Charlotte, who have also vastly altered their team by trading two guys who were largely non-factors for Stephen Jackson.

Regardless of their current records, those games weren’t particularly tough at the time, and each team has undergone a fairly significant change since then that would explain their improvement, at least relative to their composition at the time that we were racking up wins over them.

#52

by Royster on Jan 4, 2010 9:37 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Nice

fact-based rebuttal.

"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview

by BlazersOrBust on Jan 4, 2010 9:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Let's check that

Memphis had already jettisoned AI. Of those seven losses, five were on the road, and all were tough games. After losing to us, they lost at Houston, and then won three straight and five of seven. So were they really playing terrible ball then, or was the schedule brutal?

The Hornets. They were 3-6 when we faced them, but their schedule had been absolutely brutal. Were they playing terrible? They had beat the Kings and the Mavs at home, and the Clips on the road. People at the time thought the Kings and Clips wins meant little, but now we know those are decent teams. And they had losses at S.A., Boston, LAL, NY, and Phoenix, and at home to Toronto (another decent team). The fact remains that Dallas couldn’t win there and we did, so people can pooh-pooh the accomplishment, but it is still a decent win to get. Sure, they fired their coach, but often teams play better the next game. We came out and shut them down and made sure they didn’t get the emotion going in their favor. A quality win against a very dangerous opponent.

Charlotte — well, again a seven game losing streak, but again, five were on the road — the only home losses were to Orlando and Boston. They had beat Atlanta earlier. But here, I think you are right — there was a significant change right after that in the Stephen Jackson acquisition. It wasn’t an easy place to win, no matter what anyone says (they were 3-1 at home when we got there with a win over a red-hot Atlanta team), but home wins after the Jackson acquisition aren’t indicative.

Those games weren’t pushovers. Any one of them could have been a loss, easily — those teams were all fully capable of beating quality teams at home. You may not expect to lose any particular one of them, but it is a very good accomplishment to win them all.

#5 #10 #52 #88

by jscot on Jan 5, 2010 9:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Well, NO had still just fired their coach

So while their situation may not have been as dire as the national media predicted, we still caught them at an especially opportune time.

Memphis was still in the midst of the AI controversy given that he was simply on a “leave of absence” at that point. It wasn’t until they finally cut him that things picked up. As far as “all were tough games”, yes they were on the road, but that included dates with Sacto (not easy, but not especially intimidating), GS, and the Clippers and they were giving up an average of 120 ppg in those 5 games prior to ours. 2 teams with winning records, 3 teams with losing records, and getting hammered by an average of 10 ppg over the stretch. That’s not running into a tough schedule, that’s playing terribly.

Charlotte was a little better than both of those teams, but I just can’t buy that a team that had just lost to the trainwrecks that are the 2009/2010 Bulls and Pistons is playing that well (even on the road). Not a pushover like, say, Minnesota, but hardly a game you point to and say “that’s a tough team”.

#52

by Royster on Jan 5, 2010 9:36 AM PST up reply actions  

OK

NO we caught at a time which is dangerous. How many times do teams win the first game after firing the coach? A lot. And you don’t know what offense they will run. Those are never predictable. I wouldn’t call it “especially opportune” — if we’d been lax in our defense, and given up some easy buckets, it could have been ugly real quickly.

Look, on a scale of win difficulty, it isn’t a 10 or anything, but it was easily a 6.

Memphis. SAC is 11-7 at home. A loss there doesn’t mean they were playing terribly. GS was still healthy and is always dangerous, especially at home. LAC is 10-8 at home. A loss there doesn’t mean you are terrible. Any of these losses means nothing. Put them all together and it tells you they were (at the time, anyway) a bad road team. It tells you nothing about how difficult it is to win there.

None of these wins (Memphis, N.O., Charlotte) were signature wins, but to call them “cream puffs” as Leeroy did is silly. In all three cities, visiting teams lose more than they win, and elite teams have lost there — in all but Memphis, elite teams had lost there before we went there and won. The accomplishment of winning them all should not be downplayed.

#5 #10 #52 #88

by jscot on Jan 5, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions  

To narrow the debate some

I’m actually a little skeptical of the “dead coach bounce” theory, at least in terms of the immediate following game or two. I think it’s one of those things that’s just reinforced by a lot of confirmation bias, but without a comprehensive study, who knows?

New Orleans lost to us and Atlanta after firing Scott.

New Jersey has been hopeless regardless of who’s coaching.

Memphis dropped their only two games under Johnny Davis after Iavaroni got canned last year.

Phoenix won last year, but they were had the all star break between the change and were installing one of D’Antoni’s old assistants.

Toronto lost their first three after firing Vincent last year.

OKC lost Brooks’ first 5 games last year.

Sacramento won Natt’s first game in charge (against Minny), but dropped their next 6 or so.

That’s just for the last couple seasons. Of course, it’s all anecdotal, and most of these teams are bad, so you’d expect them to lose anyways, but I suspect that some midterm positive effects of coaching replacements get mistaken for short-term improvements by NBA fans. We’d need a lot more data, though, that I’m too lazy to dig up.

#52

by Royster on Jan 5, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions  

How convenient for your point of view..

That the win total was “misleading”. I guess some wins are worth less than a whole “W” in your world? People are saying the same think about the L*kers, but however you cut it, they have the best record in the league and we are tied for first in the NW. How about the Coach of the team who did that on 16 crutches with two rookies and some band-aids getting some credit.

      RoadBlazer

by Roadblazer on Jan 4, 2010 2:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Nate is mediocre at best

I am sure he does some things well, but he is horrible when it comes to player rotations and calling a game. I know posting up isn’t part of Martell’s game, but why not try it against Iverson? Why did they have so many problems getting the ball to GO in the low post? Why is their rotation on defense so poor? Why have they not improved upon many of the things that led them to lose in the playoffs last year?

All the injuries made his job easier. As for the part about people not liking Nate because we don’t have a fast break, that’s only half the story. As of last week this team was last in both fast break points and points in the paint. This isn’t Nate’s fault? How many teams will go far in the playoffs when they can’t do either of these things?

by lil'stink on Jan 4, 2010 9:21 AM PST reply actions  

I agree. Nate is good at coaching new players. He is good at coaching the "underdog"team.

Nate may even be a good defense/offense coach. I don’t know enough about that to address that. However, Nate is not a good player rotation coach. I think the way he’s handled starter decisions has been abysmal. Period. Also I think he took FOREVER to give minutes to anyone who has not played for him for 4 yrs.

by Natsthecat on Jan 4, 2010 4:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Like Nic and Rudy?

Even Steve has only played for him for 2 1/2 years.

#5 #10 #52 #88

by jscot on Jan 5, 2010 9:07 AM PST up reply actions  

One of my problems with Nate...

was how he played Nic. Wasn’t his decision to start Nic in part because other players on the team (especially Roy) thought he should be starting? Nate almost always pulled Nic at the same time in the 1st quarter, no matter how he was playing. Nic could hit a 3, score on the break, and be the only one hustling on defense. Yet Nate would still pull him after 6-8 minutes and not play him for the rest of the half.

by lil'stink on Jan 5, 2010 9:28 AM PST up reply actions  

That's a fair criticism

though regular substitution patterns have been used to great advantage by some coaches (Jack Ramsay did it at times, for one).

But I wasn’t trying to claim that Nate’s use of Nic (or Rudy either) was perfect, just to refute another over-the-top criticism of Nate. Fans may not understand or agree with some of Nate’s rotation decisions, but it is ludicrous to say that you have to play for him for years to get minutes, as Natsthecat did.

#5 #10 #52 #88

by jscot on Jan 5, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions  

I'll give Nate one more year

All things considered, I’m pretty sure Nate is not the coach of the future for Portland. That isn’t to take anything away from all he has accomplished, but I think the team has “outgrown” him. The first month of the season made this point loud and clear. At full strength our offense wasn’t working, our players were confused, our defense wasn’t great, and we weren’t winning. The rotations were CONSTANTLY changing, our strengths were underutilized and our weaknesses were overexposed. Nate had trouble fitting our personnel into his scheme, or more importantly – his scheme into our personnel.

Had we remained healthy, I’m quite confident that this season would have ended in disappointment. Jerryd Bayless would have ended the season on the bench. Andre Miller would either have been traded for junk or just wasted, and Rudy Fernandez would have continued to be under utilized. Greg Oden would have spent most of the season on the bench with two fouls. We probably would have won LESS games than last year and had another 1st round exit. In that scenario (one that I think was bound to happen) Nate should have been let go. Those issues are all things that are the coach’s responsibility and Nate was screwing them up left and right.

As it stands now, Nate (and KP to an extent) may have gotten lucky with the injuries to this team. Jerryd Bayless being forced into action was great. Nate, for the past month, has basically had all his rotation and line-up decisions made for him. When players start to return one at a time (Batum and Rudy), Nate SHOULD be able to insert them into the line-up to positive results without messing up the chemistry too bad. The fact that he has been able to take a team with a very depleted roster and get them to continue win games has been huge, and I think Nate deserves a lot of the credit. Sitting at the top of the division after all the adversity this team has been through is nothing short of amazing. That said, Nate has always been able to take “lesser” rosters and get them to overachieve (he did it in Seattle and he did it in Portland too). Getting a stacked roster to just meet expectations is what he struggles with.

I couldn’t in good conscience fire a coach who has done as much for the franchise as Nate has when half his team has spent the season on the sidelines. I’ll give him one more year, but if 2011 ends the way this season started, it is time to move on. For this roster NOT to be a title threat at the end of next year is unacceptable in my mind.

by StuckeyDuck on Jan 4, 2010 9:52 AM PST reply actions  

Who would you people want instead?

I dont know if Nate is a “Championship” level coach yet, but is this team a “Championship” level team? Not in my eyes. Not with fragile Oden, soft Lamarcus, and one dimensional SF’s.

And unless your name is Phil Jackson, Greg Poppovich, Larry Brown, or gulp Doc Rivers, then there arent too many championship level coaches available. Let me guess, Rick Adelman has all the answers! (note, never won a championship).

Nate is what he is. A very good coach. But this is a players league, and unless Lamarcus starts playing like he is 6’ 11 and Greg stays off the operating table we really dont have a hope anyways. And if you take a look at all the HORRIBLE coaches in the NBA, we should all consider ourselves lucky that we have somebody that at least knows how to manage a clock and has put an identity on what kind of team we will be.

Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson

by Benson on Jan 4, 2010 10:07 AM PST reply actions  

That is a good question

I don’t see anyone else out there. I’m kinda on the “Fire Nate” bandwagon, but I understand you can’t just fire him without a new coach in mind.

Larry Brown is who I think we need. I’d throw a bunch of money at him and try to lure him away from Charlotte. He’d be coming to a great situation and he’d get our players to win. I’m not sure of the rules of poaching coaches from other teams, but I think he would be worth it. Adelman is another great option, but I’m not sure he’d want to leave Houston to come back here. Jerry Sloan would be awesome, but impossible to get (and probably won’t still be coaching 5 years from now.)

by StuckeyDuck on Jan 4, 2010 10:13 AM PST up reply actions  

there was a vocal minority

who was on the adelman bandwagon before he got hired by houston…although doc has a ring…i’d still take adelman over doc.

I'm going on a Dave boycott until AK1984 is brought back.

"Did they really expect me to bow down to Jesus?!?" ~Sophia

by Philthyanimal on Jan 4, 2010 1:48 PM PST up reply actions  

The debate should be "is Nate Coach of the year?"

The Blazers are in first place in the NW division despite the fact that they’re missing 7 of their 10 best players, they have improved by an average of 11 games a year during Nate’s tenure, young 2nd round rookies are stepping into Nate’s system to make big contributions, and the team is playing with more heart and hustle than any team in the NBA but instead of debating whether he should be coach of the year we’re debating whether he should be canned. What does Nate have to do to make you happy? Sometimes I think that if Nate tuned water to wine “fans” would be on here complaining that the wine wasn’t Pinot Noir.

As far as whether or not he can win a championship we don’t know yet becasue he’s never had a championship level roster yet. This debate reminds of the comments people made about Doc Rivers and Tony Dungy when I lived in Central Florida. Everyone said “They’re good but they don’t have what it takes to win a championship.” Both were canned and later won championships elsewhere.

In the Houston series goes we’re lucky it was as close as it was. The rockets exposed 2 big weaknesses in our roster.
     A. Only one player can create oppurtunites off the dribble.
     B. Almost no veteran experince.

B will be fixed with time and A should be fixed by the development of Bayless and the signing of Miller.

We’re lucky to have a good coach and to fire him so prematurely would be a huge mistake.

JRogero

by JRogero on Jan 4, 2010 12:02 PM PST reply actions  

The Rockets did more than expose weaknesses in our roster

They exposed weaknesses in our style of play. Things I don’t think this team has been able to correct as of yet. Nate was a mediocre, conservative, boring player while in the league. Too bad his coaching style has followed suit.

by lil'stink on Jan 5, 2010 9:24 AM PST up reply actions  

What????

there is no evidence here, what-so-ever, that Nate is shinning……Nothing has been proven at all….And no credit is due …..this team has done one thing and one thing only…They have come together as a “team”….they have done this by just going out and playing ball….period! they have done this out of necessity …..and why would one want to credit Nate and the coaching staff for this? they have never shown anything in the past that relates to the difference between winning and losing a game……..it’s all about the players….It’s still a matter of Roy’s play and and dependence on outside shooting(live or die ie. Philadelphia)…they are working harder because they need to pick up slack for missing players…because of this fact, it has helped them re-discover what it takes to be a “team”……..I really think you should give more credit to Howard than Nate…..He has been a real stabilizing influence on this team….
   Yes it’s easy to credit or discredit the coaching staff for rises and falls….they are the ones, on the first line of scrutiny, when people surmise a team’s success’s or failures …..however, the jury is still out on Nate and the coaching staff…..they have proven nothing….and you can just as easily justify their failures (as people have previously commented)

by WyEast on Jan 4, 2010 12:59 PM PST reply actions  

I'd say that taking an extremely young team from 25-57

to the playoffs within 3 years counts for something. i’d say that being in first place in the NW division with nothing but rookies and weathered veterans counts for something too. I would also say that the marked improvement in defense since Nate arrived is something of an accomplishment as well.

But I will say this again. IT IS A PLAYERS LEAGUE. All of Phil Jacksons’ wisdom and coaching expertise was worth dittley poo when they didnt have Pau Gasol. The Lakers were getting bounced every year and Kobe wanted out. Doc Rivers didnt all of a sudden become a coaching genius 2 years ago, HE GOT Kevin Garnett.

Look at our roster, either this year or last year, and tell me that Nate is underachieving with this roster. I say he is doing fine.

Ball handling and dribbling are my strongest weaknesses."—David Thompson

by Benson on Jan 4, 2010 3:44 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

I took a look

and your right ,,,Nate is not underachieving (he’s doing just about everything he could possibly do or at least is capable of doing)…..But it’s a long, long, reach, to assign credit for the teams recent success….Does he get any credit for the team’s confusing and slow start? I only look at it this way….when his team needed him most, he accepted little responsibility.
      And I haven’t quite grasped the defense improvement …..Unless you call, from rock bottom to less than adequate, improvement.
    Why do you people continue to embellish Nate with all the accolades? I mean he’s not a liability, but he’s simply not a standout coach (one that would make a difference)……However, he would make an excellent assistant coach.IMO (Olympics).
     I fully accept the fact that he may be the best we can get, at the moment….(Not too many difference making coaches out there) But in the same breath, I will not conclude that he is an outstanding coach that will lead us to the Championship, either.

by WyEast on Jan 5, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions  

What I find so difficult to understand ...

… is how few people seem to understand this point.

My unscientific, non-research based opinion is that coaching may account for 10% of what impacts a game, if that. While that is not insignificant, it certainly isn’t the most important factor.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 3:09 PM PST up reply actions  

The only evidence is that Nate can motivate a team with nothing to lose!

 What happens when he gets all of the talent this team has together and available to use? How will he blend it? How will he define roles and playing time? You can talk all you want about it being about the team, but ALL of these players, from Brandon on down do worry about how that affects them and where they fit in! They all want to contribute and play a part.

Nate has failed miserably to integrate a very good veteran PG onto this team because of his ridiculous loyalty to the incumbent and/or his extreme dislike of the new guy! That’s a very big strike in my book.

Integrating Oden was also a strike against Nate, IMO. Oden was shooting around 60% because the vast majority of his shots came close to the basket. That is the type of shots that can be money in the bank. Nate chose to try to continue with the old Blazer offense of 07’ and 08’ even though it was exposed during the series against Houston. Remember that Yao Ming guy that we had no answer for in the playoffs? Oden could be that and maybe even more!

by goobie1 on Jan 4, 2010 1:31 PM PST reply actions  

Oden could be that and maybe even more WITH A DIFFERENT COACH.

Maybe Nate will learn something about coaching from this year. He has been forced to give new people minutes. He has had NO CHOICE. So he has seen and will continue to see just what people can do when given a chance. Maybe McMillan will be able see that his old ways are not necessarily the be all end all. I don’t think Nate is stupid…just stubborn. Sometimes people do learn from their mistakes. Not often but sometimes. Especially if it means ones job will be kept…

by Natsthecat on Jan 4, 2010 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

You would have a good point ...

… if it was fact based, rather than just opinion.

There were a lot of observers who felt the reason Portland’s offense wasn’t running as smoothly as last season was BECAUSE Nate was trying to get the team to integrate Oden. He recognized that Greg was developing his offensive game faster than expected and was trying to take advantage of that. But you don’t take the engine from an M-1 Abrams and stick it into your Porsche and expect it operate perfectly the first few times out of the garage.

And it was not just a matter of integrating one player. Ignoring for the moment that PG is the ignition to a team on the court, Miller was but one of 3 new players Nate had to work into the starting lineup. Failure to accommodate one new guy may be valid, but claiming that trying to fit three new guys is child’s play leads me to believe that opinion is triumphing reason here.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 3:20 PM PST up reply actions  

My biggest concern about Nate is

If Rudy is not playing a lot more minutes than Steve for the rest of the season our Euros are going to conclude that playing in the NBA on a Nate coached team is a career dead end but would rate him as a good coach,great is a real stretch

by southern oregon on Jan 4, 2010 2:22 PM PST reply actions  

I think Boom Boom Batum qualifies as a "Euro"

Doesn’t he? Nate started him most of the season..as a rookie I might add.

   RoadBlazer

by Roadblazer on Jan 4, 2010 3:05 PM PST up reply actions  

ok..

My educated Guess is that Batum would have made the top small forward spot anyway based on the need for a defensive stopper. I just don’t see “anti Euro” bias as one of our problems.. perhaps some vitamin D deficiency and more Calcium in the Diets of our Bigs….but not anti-Euro Bias.

   RoadBlazer

by Roadblazer on Jan 4, 2010 6:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Sergio and Rudy think of it as a pro Steve bias

The minutes situation before Rudy went down deserves all the bad press it gets,do you really think Steve is a better player and “earned” his minutes?

by southern oregon on Jan 4, 2010 6:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Honestly... I don't know..

Not trying to dodge you here, truly, whether Steve is better depends on what you are looking for. I was and still am willing to admit that Nate and the staff know stuff I do not. What I do know is Steve is not as horrible as some on this site have been screaming. I am a big Rudy guy, but Steve plays better help defense. I know I am in the minority in this opinion. But to your credit, I buy your " I would rather see Rudy" stance more than I buy “Blake sucks” as a reason. I questioned the “why’s” of the minutes as well, I just don’t think my confusion of the minutes allocation as a reason to call Nate a terrible coach. Not that you did that here.

   RoadBlazer

by Roadblazer on Jan 4, 2010 7:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Nailed it there!

I believe coupled with a strong dislike of Miller and his pro-Steve bias has caused our PG situation to be a distraction when it should have been a sourse of calm, solid consistency had Nate handled it right from the start. He didn’t.

by goobie1 on Jan 4, 2010 9:16 PM PST up reply actions  

My guess

is that Blake was, and still is, a more fundamentally sound player….something Nate may have concluded that this team needed more than skill or potential.

and for what it’s worth, I believe Batum’s defense and also open court game, are also needed.

by WyEast on Jan 5, 2010 9:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Blake more fundamentally sound than Miller?

I don’t think so. Being more conservative doesn’t neccessarily make him more fundamentally sound. A PG’s job is to bring the ball up the floor and either drive to the hole or dish it to the open man. To generally “run the offense.” Miller is head and shoulders above Blake at that. Try again.

by goobie1 on Jan 5, 2010 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Did I say that?

I was commenting to southern oregon’s post about Sergio and Rudy…. You talk (write) but you don’t listen (read).

I don’t know where you came up with comparing Blake to Miller in this thread? I missed it, I guess.
But thanks for the insight on what a point guard is……So here is some insight on life; You’ll find that you can get along better in this world if your a better listener than talker…try it

by WyEast on Jan 5, 2010 1:38 PM PST up reply actions  

My bad, I appologize.

I have gotten so wrapped up in the PG controversy that I projected it right into this one! Sorry bout that. Still, you did respond to my post after I used Blake and Miller as the principals in a way that lead me to believe you were defending Blake playing 30 mins. a game. I just don’t see how that can be justified.

by goobie1 on Jan 5, 2010 2:35 PM PST up reply actions  

You ask the wrong question.

The correct question is “Do you believe the Blazers are more effective with Steve Bake or without him”.

So far, they have shown to be pretty effective.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I've had doubts

I was especially dubious of Nate’s continued reign after the Houston series. His stubborn persona often rubs me the wrong way. But when it comes right down to it, Nate has done his part of bringing respectability back to the franchise in more ways then just how he coaches. He’s a generous community advocate for one. He has faith in his players and the players respect him. He’s getting the most out of an unbelievably screwed up situation and that is entirely meritorious. I’m done criticizing Nate. I prefer the tag Blazermaniac to Blamermaniac anyways.

"In order to keep a true perspective of one's importance, everyone should have a dog that will worship him and a cat that will ignore him."

by bow4meow on Jan 4, 2010 3:44 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

I'm no great basketball mind,

but if the team looks better and plays better the LESS players we have available, doesn’t that take credit away from the coach? Seems to me the players deserve a whole lot more credit than the coach. A large portion of his job is adequately substituting players, and the less he’s had to do that, the better the team has done.

#52

by TheTinfoil on Jan 4, 2010 5:29 PM PST reply actions  

I agree

Rotations are a definite weak spot for Nate. Not having a logjam of players at certain positions makes this aspect of his job easier in a sense. Hopefully he will be able to figure things out when guys come back, but I doubt it. He just doesn’t strike me as someone who can think outside the box. And Nate’s box is apparently quite small.

by lil'stink on Jan 5, 2010 9:19 AM PST up reply actions  

great observation

I think you are a lot closer to reality than the original post.

by WyEast on Jan 5, 2010 10:04 AM PST up reply actions  

LOL--Reminds me of Fantasy Football Lineups

I always do better when I don’t have to decide who’s starting at RB or whatever each week.

I think you’re right—it appears that a reduction in decisions improves Nate’s performance. That would definitely be considered a failing… or at least, the theory seems sound.

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Jan 5, 2010 11:31 AM PST up reply actions  

When you start applying fantasy sports comparisons ...

… to real life, then I would say you effectively kill your credibility.

In this case I don’t think you are, but I have noticed that the whole fantasy sports phenonenom, along with video games, has given a lot of folks the impression that what the pros do is easy.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Hmm...I don't agree at all

Fantasy sports and its use in baseball led directly to the advanced statistics used in Oakland, etc. Theo Epstein and the like are nothing more than fantasy geeks that figured something out that the pros missed. (cross reference Moneyball).

That same craving for advanced statistics has led to all kinds of investigation including Football Prospectus, 82games, Synergy, and the rest.

If nothing else, fantasy sports have given the more casual fans a better understanding of the usage of—and more importantly, the failings of—traditional statistics in these sports. Certainly, fantasy sports have at least increased the demand for advanced statistics.

Trying to better understand the game flow in order to accurately predict events is the very essence of fantasy sports. It’s like suggesting that amateur astronomers have nothing to contribute to the field when, in fact, they make discoveries all the time. Ditto for journalism and bloggers, if you allow me to extend the argument.

I wasn’t intending to be totally serious when I made the joke above but if you’re going to get condescending about fantasy sports and those amateurs who dig the statistics they involve (at least the serious players), then I think you are in profound error.

Buck Williams for the hall of fame

by Phizbin on Jan 5, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I will acknowledge being in error in the sense that my comment

may have too broadly dismissed any positive influences.

But I will stick by the point that playing fantasy sports is not qualification for doing the real thing. Our son is home after graduating from college and waiting for an open slot in TBS at Quantico. He brought with him his wide screen plasma and x-box. He has a ton of first person shooter games and I’ve been wasting time playing Modern Warfare 1 & 2. I don’t think that mastering the game means I should be working as a shooter for the CIA. No matter how realistic they make a game or how many tools they make available for fantasy analysis, it will never replace the real thing.

Theo Epstein did not get his start playing fantasy sports. He got a job with a team and worked his way up. In other words he was able to apply new tools and advanced statistical analysis to the real world experience he gained. The two go hand in hand. I’m not sure how to address the astronomy analogy, other than to ask if amateurs contribute something more than new observations. As I understand it, professional astronomers can only look at a fraction of the skies. This means that there is a lot of space for tens of thousands of additional eyes to look at and sometimes find stuff. The pertinent question would be whether amateurs are making significant contributions to the theory of astronomy. I don’t know the answer to that one.

My basic point is that you need both real experience and cutting edge analytical tools and that as fans, we only have access to one.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Jan 5, 2010 4:39 PM PST up reply actions  

when does he get credit

So when we succeed with a full roster it is because we have so much talent and has nothing to do with the coach and when we succeed after losing 6 or 7 of our best players it’s because it relieved the logjam of minutes and has nothing to do with the coach. So when does a coach get any credit for a team success? It seems odd that so many fans want to blame a coach when things go wrong but do not want to credit him when things go well.

The idea that success after losing the majority of your top players shows a coaches failing seems crazy to me. Lots of professional teams have crumbled under far less adversity than the Blazers have had this year. Keeping a team motivated under these circumstances is not something just anyone can do.

Nate has succeeded in the criteria that counts most to me. The team is winning and has improved every year. If you want to judge a coach by a different criteria I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

JRogero

by JRogero on Jan 5, 2010 11:57 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Wow..How frustrating it is

to try debating with people who have no common sense. The people who think they know more about coaching in the NBA, than real NBA coaches.
I got frustrated just reading this string… I have sympathy for timg56, WyEast, Roadblazer, and the others who try talking with the idiots on this string.

by Rick_D on Jan 6, 2010 5:33 PM PST reply actions  

You are right about one thing

One side of this argument doesn’t have any common sense. But it’s not the side you think. The very act of thinking that Nate M is a good coach means you do not have a firm understanding of basketball. I’m sorry to have to say it so abruptly but it’s true. Nate’s short comings are too numerous and out in the open for it not to be obvious to the logical and yes unbiased observer that he cannot be an effective championship coach in the NBA. I would love it if he could over coming his shortcomings and learn to be a good coach, because KP doesn’t seem to want to let the guy go, but I don’t see that happening.

I stayed out of the discussion because I would just be repeating myself and I’m sorry if this hurts any feelings but you all need to stop following blindly and start watching and listening and learning.

by Emperor_Doom on Jan 12, 2010 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

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