Big men scoring in the 4th quarter and LaMarcus Aldridge

very nicely done, rec’d.

I would be curious to if there is a noticeable correlation between larger 4th quarter drops and bigs that play with superstar wings ….The reason I ask is that you showed that bigs drop off scoring in 4th (a little or a lot) and wings take over ……that being said ….does the relative quality of the wing have an effect?? I guess I am saying…even if we wanted LMA to score more in the 4th …wouldn’t those points have come from Roy and Outlaw? At least partially?

anyway…good work

To other bigs in fouls drawn and fouls per game. Being 6’11 and Athletic and averaging less than 1 block per game to me is the biggest lack in his game, not scoring…his defense against smaller 4’s and switching to guard 1’s and 2’s is inexcusable!

I can’t help but wonder what his numbers were like last year after the All-Star break when he went into Mega-Beast mode. I also wonder if there is any chance that he could do it again this year. I still hold hope for LMA to improve but even I have found my frustration levels are elevated. Thank you for showing us that it is not ALL his fault.

I think that the trend toward bigs getting less shots in the fourth quarter is part of how the NBA game has evolved to this point. The rules in the NBA befit wings and guards who can get the ball to the rack. It’s only natural that coaches run more plays for their star players who can create their own shots when it is the easier option that they are given. It takes a monster of a big man to be able to score and draw fouls at the same frequency as any slightly talented wing scorer in the fourth quarter because the rules are different for the defenders of the big men. Guards and Small forwards can scoot right past their man and get to the line simply because the refs will reward those who go to the hole during crunch time. Face up big men are far slower than their smaller counterparts most of the time and have an inevitably higher and slower dribble so they cannot hope to drive straight to the basket without being stripped of the ball unless they are matched up with an extremely poor defending squad, are of otherworldly talent, or have simply refined that part of their game. It is just too risky most of the time. 4th quarter scoring big men are monsters on the low block with multiple moves and countermoves with the ability to pass out of double teams and also with defensive abilities that allow them to stay in the game without fouling out. This is a MASSIVE amount of responsibility to ask of any big man. This is also not LMA.

LMA’s game has so many flaws when it comes to this aforementioned model of 4th quarter success that it is close to impossible to understand all of the things he may do wrong on any given night therefore much criticism is wrongly applied. I have a hard time picking him apart every time he comes up short these days simply because we are putting him in a place that is very close to completely foreign to him. He is being told to be the primary scorer down low and he doesn’t have the necessary post moves and confidence to be able to score when he is the focal point of the other teams defense. He is also playing against bigger and stronger albeit slower players every single game. I do have hope that since he is being forced to adapt to a new role in the offense, he will begin to work a little bit harder on his low post offense. His attitude does not concern me too much. It is something that he will never be able to change but just because he doesn’t have the fire doesn’t mean that his low energy attitude toward things cant be useful. He is machinelike when he gets a turnaround jumpshot off. When he figures out how to turn toward the hoop, he will be machinelike doing that as well. I have faith in that.

His defense and rebounding are variable. I’ve seen him play horrible defense one minute only to surprise me with excellent play the next. We wouldn’t really be talking about it too much if all of our defensive players and rebounders weren’t touched by the Basketball injury devils this year. He will always do what he does well. Hopefully we won’t be forced to ask him to do things he can’t do well for much longer in the future.

P.S. To all the people who call him soft for not being Greg or Tim Duncan down on the block. – You suck.

You know, losing Oden and Pryzbilla both in combination with the absence of Maurice Lucas has impacted LaMarcus bigtime. I just don’t think he’s ever going to be the type of player people think he could. He’s not Charles Barkley or Karl Malone. His weakness as a player is more exposed right now without his mentor in Lucas plus losing both of his centers who normally eat up rebounds. I really think LaMarcus is a great player and will be an all star before this current contract is up with Portland. But he’s just not the individual talent people are begging for yet. He needs to be part of a team who take advantage of his awesome strengths and help mute his weaknesses. Aldridge will improve dramatically once he has an experienced rebounder in the game with him like a Brendan Haywood.

Way to build a case.

Ultimate rec.

Smart, thoughtful, researched, well-presented…this is a best-of-class sports blog post.

Impressive!

Thanks for it!

One explanation I would put forward for this is that LaMarcus’s moves are always conservative and take a long time compared to other post players. He gets the ball, waits for traffic to clear, waits for the double team, then either makes his move or passes out. Additionally, he’s such a conservative passer out of the double team that the team isn’t able to immediately take advantage. All this play takes precious seconds off the shot clock. It works OK against a defense that is at first quarter intensity, but when the defense is rotating aggressively and really working to “wall the ball” and prevent side to side ball movement, it all needs to happen more quickly. This means you don’t have time for conservative passes out of the double team, or waiting for traffic to clear to survey your options. The defense will be all over you. LaMarcus needs to work on making quicker moves and decisions, then he should be more successful scoring against ratcheted-up defenses in the fourth.

Very interesting to see Dirk’s % go down as much as it did. If Dirk’s can go down, anyone’s can. He is about as close to a wing as a big man can get and even he doesn’t improve his scoring. The ones who do are either 3 point specialists (Lewis) or the #1 scoring option on their team (Bosh and Jefferson).

I am okay with LMA’s output with Roy/Outlaw in the game, I just wish he didn’t look so nervous out their. If he looked calm I would have no issue.

if there’s such a thing on BE as underrated posters, you’re on top of my list. Keep up the great work and REC.

To be fair to Royster…I believe he posted this question before he worked on this fanpost…so some of the conclusions I made will also be found here in his own post.
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If LA is the 2nd option in the first, it would stand to reason that he should be the 2nd option in the 4th. If the coaches think Travis is more effective in the 4th, why shouldn’t he be considered more effective in the other 3 quarters, too?

Why? I don’t know for sure but I have an idea.

First, the trend (which you have acknowledged) that big guys dip in production in the fourth is real….even Dirk …who is not a #2 option…but is a #1 option and former league MVP…takes a backseat to Jason Terry in the 4th, who a fine player but not exactly Brandon Roy. (If someone could find an answer to why that is true, we could probably have a better insight to why LMA drops as much as he does.) If I were to guess, I would think it has to do with the fact that it is tough to get the ball to the bigs in a position other than out by the 3 point line….and most bigs don’t have the driving ability to get all the way to the hole by themselves and that leaves them with face-up jumpers on the perimeter….a shot that most would concede isn’t as high a percentage as say ….a Brandon Roy penetration score or dish, so they go away from their big guy….as we have seen, this effect becomes stronger and stronger the later in the fourth we get (especially here in Portland).

Second, the fact that the rotations dictate that LMA (who only gets about 7.5 mins on average in the 4th) gets most of those 4th quarter mins at the very end of the game (from the 6 min mark or so). It doesn’t seem too surprising that LMA drops off even more than other bigs based on the type of offense Portland plays to end games.

Third, Travis Outlaw….we have all seen how Travis plays …he tends to be the end of the conduit…the end of the play…I wouldn’t go as far as to call him a "Black hole" ala Zbo…but once he gets the ball …he doesn’t give it up …the coaches live with this because he is pretty effective in this capacity and can get his own shot without having to be set up….but it probably has a direct impact on LMA’s touches in the 2nd and 4th quarters when Trav gets the majority of his mins…(you can see this effect in the 2nd quarter too BTW …just not to the same extent.)

So…it seems to me that when you add all of that up …it is not all that surprising that LMA takes a hit, and it is a bigger hit than other Bigs because of Roy and Outlaw, in the 4th quarter. Also, if you trade him for another PF, that player better better be able do some of the things that Outlaw can do too….or we will be right back where we started

because yours is a really well thought out, well written post (huge rec from me), but this is the sort of discussion that drives non-stats guys nuts. Isn’t this a lot of analysis and numbers to support what could easily be concluded just by watching the games?

I know there were a number of people that were arguing that there wasn’t even a problem, and this should open their eyes, but to me it seems like it should be really obvious from a spectators POV.

excellent analysis.

Especially without Roy the last 5 games, his numbers haven’t impressed. Where is his 35+pt game(S) since both Oden/Pryz whent down?

Last 5 games with ROY gone.

41.2 42-96 0-7 17-25 1.0 1.0 1.8 3.0 2.2 5.8 8.0 2.0 20.2

And then you add in the only slight increase in rebounds per game(like 1.5+, with a few 11+ games in there to cancel out the 6-7 ones..at least no more horrid 4 rb games…ugh).

If LA could be more like a Nowitzki then I don’t really care, but hes not, hes more and more a tweener that doesn’t shutdown or intimidate on D, and his Gazelle abilities are wasted on our plodding offense-we should do a Multi Team deal and trade him to NYK so he can run with David Lee and then get Gerald Wallace or something in return.

I really like LA too, and still remember when he and BROY came in as the new pillars for portland to rebuild, and now with Oden in injury purgatory, I think we should perhaps start thinking of shifting both Oden/LMA in the next couple years while continuing to build around Roy and ROY alone, a la Kobe in LA.

Royster email me I want to do some additional analysis for this season invisibleninjapdx at gmail dot com

if he were being presented (and paid) as a 3 or 4 option, then the outcry would be less

MY GOD WHERE DO YOU GET THE TIME TO DO THIS
if only i could
really nice though, good clear analyses