Sched Ahead 1/18/10, Week Thirteen -- Staying Alive

If you told me a week ago we'd get two wins on the trip, I'd have taken it, though I hoped for three.  If you told me we'd lose at Washington, and still get two wins, I'd have definitely taken it.

If you told me Brandon would play only one half of one game, and Jerryd would miss 1 1/2 games, and we would still get two wins, I'd have laughed.

The race got tighter, our margin for error is smaller, but no Blazer fan can complain about that road trip.  We were a couple of breaks from winning all four of them, and we're doing it with the bottom of the depth chart.

TIRED OLD SUMMARY INFO

This weekly schedule analysis is based on four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  "Cream Puff" Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  "Jawbreaker" Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  "Banana Peel" Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  "Rocky Road".

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 ("Cream Puff" Home), a majority of Cat 2 ("Jawbreaker" Home) and Cat 3 ("Banana Peel" Road), and win some in Cat 4 ("Rocky Road").  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

The jscot Stupid Sched Projections methodology is explained in this post.  Since they are stupid projections, it doesn't bear repeating here.

Last week's update

CHANGES THIS WEEK

No recategorizations this week, all 19 teams at or above .500 last week are still there.  Charlotte, Chicago, and Toronto are all within two games of .500 and could flip status, triggering recategorizations this week.  Because there are so many winning teams, there are many more games in Cat 2 and 4 than in Cat 1 and 3.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (2-2).  The old men and kids went 2-1 on Cat 3 "Banana Peels", losing at Washington but then winning at Philly for the first time in forever, and later winning at Detroit (both teams on a BtoB).  In between, we almost stole a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Boston.  Over the course of the season, neither a good nor bad week, but given the injury situation, we'll definitely take it.

Dallas (3-1) did just as expected, winning one you would think would be tough (Cat 4 BtoB in Boston) but failing to get all the ones you expected them to get, going 2-1 on Cat 3 "Banana Peels" with wins at Washington and NY but a loss at Philly.     

Denver (3-0) kept rolling, winning a Cat 3 Banana Peel at G.S., then a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" against the Clips (both teams on a BtoB), then a Cat 2 "Jawbreaker" at home against the Hornets, who were on a BtoB.  They look like they are about to run away with the NW division, but they have a minor crisis coming -- only one of their next 7 home games has the opponent on a back to back.  They've been feasting on tired opponents all year.  Perhaps they won't find it quite so easy for a while.  They are playing good ball right now, though.

Houston (2-1).  The week started great, with a Cat 1 win at home against Milwaukee (Bucks on a BtoB), then a really nice Cat 4 "Rocky Road" win at San Antonio.  They gave it back with a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" home loss against Chicago (who helped us more than once this week).

L.A.  (2-2) continues to find life tougher on the road than at home, opening with a Cat 2 home win over Orlando, then going 1-2 with a BtoB Cat 3 "Banana Peel" win at NY sandwiched between tough Cat 4 losses, at Cleveland and Toronto.

Memphis (2-1) stayed good at home and not so good on the road, with two nice Cat 2 home wins against teams they might need to beat out for a playoff spot (Phoenix, OKC), then a Cat 4 Rocky Road loss to another team they might need to beat out, New Orleans.

N.O. (2-2) started bad with a Cat 2 home loss to San Antonio, ended bad with a BtoB Cat 4 road loss to Denver, but in between wasn't so bad with a Cat 2 home win against Memphis and a Cat 3 Banana Peel win at Minnesota.  Still not a very good week.

The OKC Blunder (2-2) did reasonably well in a really tough four game trip, opening with a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" win at Atlanta, grabbing a Cat 3 "Banana Peel" at Minnesota, then losing two Cat 4s in a row, at Memphis and then a tough one on a BtoB at Cleveland. 

Phoenix (2-2) had yet another "not very good" week, losing a Cat 4 at Memphis, then going home for three Cat 1 "Cream Puffs" and only getting two of them.  They got the win over NJ, lost to Chicago, and then beat the Warriors (both teams BtoB).  They are now behind us in the Stupid Sched Projections, and sliding slowly, slowly towards the abyss of the lottery.

S.A. (1-2) set out to prove there is no such thing as home court advantage, winning a testing Cat 4 in New Orleans, then losing two Cat 2 home games, to Utah and Houston.  Since they've been horrible against winning teams, this week didn't actually hurt them in the projections, but it wasn't a good week.

Utah (2-0) had another good week.  Only two games, and they got them both, a Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at San Antonio and the creamiest and puffiest of cream puffs, a Cat 1 home game against the Nets.   

Houston and Phoenix (at home) and Portland and Dallas (on the road) took losses to losing teams, . 

Helped themselves:  Dallas, Denver, Utah.

Treading water: Portland, Houston, L.A., Memphis, OKC.  

Hurt themselves:  N.O., Phoenix, S.A.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

If you are still holding out hope for catching Denver, you like this category.  They've been mediocre on the road against good teams, and they have a lot of games left.  Houston, OKC, and Phoenix have the fewest remaining, which could help them down the road.  OKC, Utah, and all three Texas teams got Cat 4 wins.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Denver, N.O., and Dallas have fewer "easy" road games remaining. 

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

We're still middle of the pack in number of tough home games remaining.     

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

Houston and Phoenix both took their first "Cream Puff" losses of the season, which really hurts their projections -- the spreadsheet doesn't like Cat 1 losses.  Now Dallas is the only outlier -- lots of easy games left for the Mavs (though they've not done well in these games this year). 

All Home Games

Not a huge amount of disparity here anymore, except that L.A. and S.A. have fewer home games remaining.  Houston has a few more at home than most of their rivals, which could help them down the road.

All Away Games

Well, we held right at .500.  The rest of the West was strong on the road this week, going 11-8.  Overall, the Western playoff rivals are 108-127 on the road.  L.A. and S.A. still have more road games remaining than anyone else, Dallas and Houston a little less than most of their rivals.

All Games Against Winning Teams

Some difficulties ahead for Denver, N.O., and S.A.  It is still only Denver, L.A., Dallas, and Portland that have winning records against winning teams. 

All Games Against Losing Teams

Denver has 29 games left against winning teams, only 10 against losing teams.  Yes, this still could get interesting. 

Back to Back Games Remaining

Denver and Memphis have the most remaining, S.A., Denver, Portland, L.A., and OKC the most remaining BtoBs that finish with a difficult Cat 4.  We play one of those this week, in Dallas.  Of remaining back to backs, the following are the number of games where the other team is on a back to back as well: 

Net, the games where only the Western contender in question is on a back to back:

L.A. has the toughest schedule here, with Denver coming next in BtoBs, but three of theirs are at home, with two Cream Puffs.  Phoenix and Utah have the easiest road ahead.  

Now, games where we are not on a back to back, but our opponent is:

N.O. and Dallas have the most help from "tired opponents" games remaining, L.A., OKC, and S.A. the least. 

The Projections

Here is the vital stuff:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but if we want to talk about stupid, you are actually reading this.

End of year rankings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa.

1. L.A.  57.2 wins (down from 58.6).   
2. Dallas.  53.2 wins (down from 53.9).
3. Denver.  52.7 wins (up from 51.4).
4. Utah.  49.2 wins (up from 47.4 in 7th).
5. Portland.  48.4 wins (up from 47.8 in 6th).
6. Houston.  48.3 wins (down from 49.1 in 5th).
7. Phoenix.  47.7 wins (down from 49.8 in 4th).  
8. S.A.  45.7 wins (up from 45.6).
9. Memphis.  44.9 wins (up from 43.9 in 10th).
10. OKC.  44.0 wins (up from 43.8 in 11th).
11. N.O.  43.4 wins (down from 44.2 in 9th).

Lots of movement this week again.  The spreadsheet liked Denver's and Utah's unbeaten week, and especially Utah's win in S.A.  It liked the Spurs win at N.O. so much it didn't punish them for two home losses.  It did not like Houston and Phoenix each losing to Chicago at home.  Memphis has their best projection of the year.

It is still looking like a 45-46 win cutoff for the playoffs, but it is even tighter than last week.

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  This is a huge week.  Two Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home against key rivals (N.O. and Utah), two Cat 4 Rocky Roads against key rivals (Houston, Dallas on a BtoB).
2. Dallas.  They start with a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" against the Bucks, then a Cat 4 at Phoenix, and finally a Cat 2 against Portland, who is on a BtoB. 
3. Denver.  Testing week for the Nuggets, with a dangerous Cat 2 at home against Charlotte, then three straight Cat 4 Rocky Roads, at Houston, OKC, and S.A.    
4. Houston.  Home cooking, with four straight Cat 2 "Jawbreakers", all on one day of rest.  Atlanta, Denver, Portland, and Phoenix.  If I'm greedy, I want them to lose the 1st and 3rd of those, and win the 2nd and 4th.   
5. L.A.  Four on the road.  They start with three Cat 3s at Washington, Indiana (BtoB), and Philly, then close with a Cat 4 at Boston.  The schedulers seem very uncreative.  Last week, we played four in the East including Washington, Philly, and Boston.  So did Dallas, four including those three teams.  This week, L.A. does it. 
6. Memphis.  The week starts with another tough Cat 2 as Orlando comes to town.  The Grizzlies have been killing it on these games recently.  Then on the road, a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Detroit and a Cat 4 Rocky Road at S.A., then back home on a BtoB for a Cat 2 Jawbreaker against N.O. (both teams BtoB).  Memphis looks like a strong playoff team (at least at home) recently, but this is another testing week for them.  
7. N.O.  After a disappointing week, this one is dangerous.  They open with a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Portland, then a Cat 3 Banana Peel at Golden State (Warriors on a BtoB).  Then, a Cat 1 "Cream Puff" at home against the Bulls, who have been winning on Western courts recently, and finally a Cat 4 at Memphis, with both teams on a BtoB.  Every game is one they could win, but every game has its own dangers.  A losing week and they begin to fade back out of the playoff picture, a winning week and they move up. 
8. The "Blunder".  After a solid road trip, three home games, Cat 1 against Chicago, Cat 2 against Denver, and Cat 1 against Golden State.  OKC has been solid on the road but mediocre at home. 
9. Phoenix.  Having dropped all the way back to seventh seed, and having failed to take advantage of an easy schedule last week, they have to pay for it this week.  A Cat 4 "Rocky Road" at Utah, then back home for a Cat 2 against the Bobcats (both teams BtoB), then another Cat 2 against Dallas, and finally a Cat 4 at Houston.  Four games against winning teams, they need at least two wins. 
10. S.A.  One last hurrah at home, four games there this week, then none until after the all star break, and only two in February.  No easy games, the first a Cat 1 against Chicago, the next three all Cat 2 against Atlanta, Memphis, and Denver.  They still have a horrible record against winning teams, but have done a little better recently, and will hope to grab at least three of these.  The road trip is coming.   
11. Utah.  The Jazz have won six of their last seven, and will hope to keep it going with a Cat 2 at home against Phoenix, a Cat 4 at Portland sans Roy, and a Cat 1 at home against a suddenly weak Sacramento team. 

The importance of this week's games cannot be overstated.  First is New Orleans.  If we can somehow find a way to win this game, with Brandon out, Jerryd probably not full strength, and trying to assimilate Nic again, we will extend our lead on one of the teams wanting to take our playoff spot AND own the tie-breaker against them.  It is still early, but a win, with the tiebreaker, effectively gives us a five game lead over the Hornets, and we are getting healthier.  In other terms, if they drop out of the playoff picture in the next week or two, the possibility of a player like Okafor becoming available could really help us. 

Next, Utah, one game behind us in the standings.  A win puts them further behind us, and ties the season series with two games remaining.  They need to win the series to get the tiebreaker (discussed in last week's post), and one of the two remaining is in Portland with Utah on a back to back.  Whichever team wins this game is extremely likely to win the tie-breaker, which could be very important later.

Next, we're at Houston, who is currently the #8 seed and two games behind us.  Expanding our lead over the #8 seed is highly recommended.  If we win this game, we lock down the tie-breaker against Houston, too, effectively making our lead over them an additional game.  We  have a good chance of winning the tie-breaker against them even if we lose this, but a win would be much better.

Finally, we have a BtoB at Dallas, a team that should beat us but also a team that seems to drop games they should win.  We're 2 1/2 behind the Mavs, and a win would narrow that gap.  And you guessed it, a win would almost certainly give us the tie-breaker against the Mavs at the end of the season, though we've got a pretty good chance of that even if we lose this game.  Not that I expect to be in a tie with them at season end, but you never know.

We need to grab at least one win this week, two would be a good week, three would be phenomenal and would make the path to the playoffs a lot smoother.  The ideal would be to grab the first two and go to Texas relaxed, knowing we've done everything we needed to do this week and anything else will be a very nice bonus to have.  But both of those home games are very tough.