Tradeology - a closer look at the science of trades, beyond opinion
by dirtboydave on Jan 23, 2010 2:21 PM PST
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PrintTrades. Trades. Trades.
Every other post these days looks like a lengthy trade drawer comment that got away. Sounds like Trader Bobis back in town and no one is safe (I’m not sure every Bedger remembers those days). We've read it all..."Got to get a small forward." "Need a new point guard." "How will we make the playoffs without banger 4/5 to back up LaMarcus." "Trade Greg/Trout/Dre while they're worth something." We have even seen a few posts and comments calling for KP to be replaced if we don't make a splash in February. Yes everyone has the answer....TRADE!!!
Trades are exciting. One of the most exciting moments in sports that doesn't occur between the lines. A new player on the team. Youtube hits will spike and the fanposts will be coming in by the dozens. Visions of improved play on both ends of the floor. How will the team mesh? Can you imagine how they will play with _____. How exciting.
Here is a thirteen player trade from 2005 that excited fans throughout 5 U.S. states. Even Bob Wittsit would have gotten his fix off this one:
MIAMI HEAT acquires F Antoine Walker from the BOSTON CELTICS and G Jason Williams, F James Posey and G Andre Emmettfrom the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES and the draft rights to C Roberto Duenas from the NEW ORLEANS HORNETS in a five-team trade that sent G-F Eddie Jones to Memphis, F Rasual Butler to New Orleans, a 2006 second-round draft pick, a conditional second-round draft pick, F Qyntel Woodsand the draft rights to Albert Miralles to Boston; The UTAH JAZZ acquired C Greg Ostertag from Memphis; Boston acquired C Curtis Borchardt from Utah and G Raul Lopez from Memphis; New Orleans acquired G Kirk Snyder from Utah.
Here is quick look at most of the trades from the past three years in no particular order. I excluded trades for draft rights and pawn piece players (I'll explain why in a minute).
MAJOR TRADES: (these consist of big names and trades that improved one or both teams)
Phoenix acquires Shaquille O'Neal from Miami in exchange for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks
Dallas trades Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, Trenton Hassell, Maurice Ager, DeSagana Diop, first-round draft choices in 2008 and 2010, and cash considerations to New Jersey for Jason Kidd, Malik Allen and Antoine Wright; waives Nick Fazekas.
Boston acquires Kevin Garnett from Minnesota in exchange for Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, a 2009 first round draft pick (top three protected), a return of Minnesota's conditional first round draft pick previously obtained in the Ricky Davis-Wally Szczerbiak and cash considerations.
Denver acquires Allen Iverson and Ivan McFarlin from Philadelphia in exchange for Andre Miller, Joe Smith and two first-round draft picks
Dallas trades forwards Devean George and Antoine Wright to Toronto for forwards Shawn Marion, Kris Humphries, center Nathan Jawai and cash considerations as part of a four-team deal
Phoenix traded center Shaquille O'Neal to Cleveland for center Ben Wallace, guard-forward Sasha Pavlovic, a 2010 second-round draft pick and cash.
Atlanta acquires Mike Bibby from Sacramento in exchange for Shelden Williams, Lorenzen Wright, Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue and a 2008 second round draft pick.
In a three-team trade, Cleveland acquires Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and a 2009 second-round pick from Cleveland plus Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West from Seattle; Chicago acquires Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes, Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons from Cleveland; Seattle acquires Donyell Marshall and Ira Newble from Cleveland and Adrian Griffin from Chicago.
MOSTLY LATTERAL MOVES: (I'd suggest skimming through these)
In a three-team trade, New Orleans acquires Bonzi Wells and Mike James from Houston, Houston acquires Bobby Jackson, Adam Haluska and a 2008 second-round pick from New Orleans as well as the rights to Sergei Lishouk from Memphis and Memphis acquires Marcus Vinicius from New Orleans and the draft rights to Malick Badiane from Houston.
San Antonio acquires Kurt Thomas from Seattle in exchange for Francisco Elson, Brent Barry and a 2009 first round draft pick.
Denver acquires Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones from Philadelphia in exchange for Reggie Evans and the draft rights to Ricky Sanchez
Charlotte acquires Jason Richardson and the draft rights to Jermareo Davidson from Golden State in exchange for the draft rights to Brandan Wright.
New York traded guard Quentin Richardson and cash to Memphis for center Darko Milicic
Charlotte acquired center Tyson Chandler from New Orleans for forward/center Emeka Okafor
Dallas traded guard Jerry Stackhouse and cash considerations to Memphis for guard Greg Buckner
Milwaukee acquires Richard Jefferson from New Jersey in exchange for Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian.
New Jersey traded guard Vince Carter and forward Ryan Anderson to Orlando for guards Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee and center Tony Battie.
L.A. Clippers acquired guard Sebastian Telfair, forward Craig Smith and forward Mark Madsen from Minnesota for forward Quentin Richardson
Minnesota traded guards Randy Foye and Mike Miller to Washington for the 2009 No. 5 draft pick, forwards Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila and Oleksiy Pecherov.
Golden State traded guard Jamal Crawford to Atlanta for guards Acie Law and Speedy Claxton.
Toronto acquired forward Reggie Evans from Philadelphia for guard-forward Jason Kapono.
Minnesota acquired forward/center Shelden Williams and guard Bobby Brown from Sacramento for center Calvin Booth and guard Rashad McCants.
New York acquired guard Larry Hughes from Chicago for guard Anthony Roberson and forwards Jerome James and Tim Thomas; acquired forward Chris Wilcox from Oklahoma City for forward Malik Rose.
Orlando acquired guard Rafer Alston from Houston for forward Brian Cook.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City acquires Tyson Chandler from Chicago for P.J. Brown and J.R. Smith.
Memphis acquires Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner and the draft rights to O.J. Mayo from Minnesota in exchange for Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins and the draft rights to Kevin Love
Denver acquires Taurean Green from Portland in exchange for Von Wafer.
Detroit acquires Juan Dixon and cash considerations from Toronto in exchange for Primoz Brezec.
Houston acquires Gerald Green from Minnesota in exchange for Kirk Snyder, a second-round pick in 2010 and cash considerations.
Minnesota acquires Antoine Walker, Wayne Simien and Michael Doleac, along with a first-round draft pick and financial considerations from Miami in exchange for Mark Blount and Ricky Davis.
Utah acquires Kyle Korver from Philadelphia in exchange for Gordan Giricek and a protected first-round pick.
Charlotte acquires Nazr Mohammed from Detroit in exchange for Primoz Brezec and Walter Herrmann
New Jersey acquires Stromile Swift from Memphis in exchange for Jason Collins and cash considerations.
Memphisaquires Stromile Swift and draft rights to Rudy Gay from Houston for Shane Battier
Minnesota acquires Antoine Walker, Wayne Simien and Michael Doleac, along with a first-round draft pick and financial considerations from Miami in exchange for Mark Blount and Ricky Davis.
Orlando acquires Brian Cook and Maurice Evans from L.A. Lakers in exchange for Trevor Ariza; waives Bo Outlaw
Utah acquires Kyle Korver from Philadelphia in exchange for Gordan Giricek and a protected first-round pick.
San Antonio traded forwards Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas and center Fabricio Oberto to Milwaukee for forward Richard Jefferson
Charlotte acquires Nazr Mohammed from Detroit in exchange for Primoz Brezec and Walter Herrmann
HOSINGS:
L.A. Lakers acquire Pau Gasol and a 2010 second-round draft pick from Memphis in exchange for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, the draft rights to Marc Gasol and first round picks in 2008 and 2010Boston acquires Ray Allen and draft rights to Glen Davis from Seattle in exchange for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and draft rights to Jeff Green. (I have to say, Marc is making this look less and less like a robbery every game)
Orlando acquires Rashard Lewis from Seattle for future second-round pick (HA – that’s theft. Sounds like something Paul Allen would do. More on that in a minute)
Orlando acquires Brian Cook and Maurice Evansfrom L.A. Lakers in exchange for Trevor Ariza
Well if you've managed to skim through this post this far instead of looking for the poll and posting a comment in regards to the title of my post, I appreciate it. That took some time to put together. And the poll is coming. Originally I wanted to include the past 4 years but it became tedious and it is long enough.
In the past few years we've seen several big trades that moved significant players. Some that were fair. Some that were cruel and unusual punishment to fans. But more times than not the trades are for non-impact players, bad fits and are often regretful. This list did not even include trades for draft picks or all the young players that are only in the league for a few years- which is literally close to half of the trades in the NBA.
If you compare the impact trades and the other 90%, the difference is pretty obvious. Packages of young talent and key players for other key players and cap relief. I don’t see a trade in the 90% category that made a team a contender or even took them to the next level. Maybe you could go back and find one for me. My point being, although trades always seem like the easiest and best solution, they are only beneficial a small percentage of the time.
For those of you that think KP will be ridiculous for not pulling the trigger on a deal this February keep in mind that over 90% of the calls he will be fielding over the next few weeks will fall in the "lateral move at best" category.
Do we really need to trades young talent to win an extra few games this season? We’ve heard all the stories and accusations of how Dre came to Portland and now are chemistry has taken a hit. Do we need that twice in one season? I have a feeling some Portland fans don’t like Dre because they don’t see him as a Blazer. I can understand that. He wasn’t a Blazer last year, or the year prior. We didn’t draft him. We haven’t seen him grow into a key part of our beloved team. Let me ask you this, if KP makes another move and brings a player to the Rose City, will he be a Blazer, or will he just be the new guy shaking up the team chemistry?
During the two previous seasons we heard fans and media crying for a SF – trade, trade now. Then KP stood pat and we saw the emergence of draft pick Nic Batum, a defensive stopper with seemingly unlimited offensive potential. Now we don’t need a SF via trade.
Most of this season we’ve heard that we need a young banger at the 4/5 to backup LMA. KP solved this problem before it started and picked up a young banger 4/5 named Jeff Pendegraph. If you ask me he is the solution to the problem and he has potential and every bit of ability to help the Blazers for the rest of this season, and most likely into the future.
If you look through the league you will see a very interesting and stark pattern. Good players, impact players are rarely acquired via trade….they are drafted or they are draft day trades. Locally we see that here in LMA, B Roy, Nic, Greg, JB, The Definition, etc. Across the league this list includes Kobe, King James, Josh Smith, Carmelo, Bynum, Deron Williams, CP3, D Wade, Joe Johnson, Hinrich, Duncan, Parker, etc. The list goes on and on. Keeping this in mind, if the best players in the league are acquired via drafts and draft day trades, it sure is a luxury to have a GM in KP who has made this his speacialty.
And if you think it is a problem that KP only makes his big moves on draft day, and not in February, take a look at what he's done for us regarding the draft in the last few years:
· In a three-team trade, Portland acquires the draft rights to Nicolas Batum from Houston; Houston acquires the draft rights to Donte Greene and second-round selection in 2009 from Memphis plus Joey Dorsey from Portland; and Memphis acquires the draft rights to Darrell Arthur from Portland.
· Boston acquires Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff and a second-round pick in 2008 from Portland for Dan Dickau, Raef LaFrentz and the Draft rights to Randy Foye.
These next three trades would probably be considered hosings by any Portland fan. Well, really any intelligent fan for that mater.
· Phoenix trades James Jones and draft rights to Rudy Fernandez to Portland for cash considerations - that's right money. Paul Allen litteraly robbed an entire city and franchise with his checkbook. That's a bad dude.
· Minnesota acquires the Draft rights to Randy Foye from Portland (via Boston) for the Draft rights to Brandon Roy.
· Portland acquires the Draft rights to LaMarcus Aldridge and a future second-round pick from Chicago for Viktor Khryapa and the Draft rights to Tyrus Thomas.
I'd say KP has set us up pretty well for the future without making any big trades. He did make a pretty big trade once though:
· New York acquires Zach Randolph, Fred Jones, Dan Dickau and the draft rights to Demetris Nichols from Portland in exchange for Steve Francis, Channing Frye and a 2008 second-round draft pick. (I wish so badly we would have had the foresight to throw in Darius Miles and whoever else it would have taken to get the draft rights to David Lee.)
*Portland acquired Jamaal Magloire from Milwaukee for Steve Blake, Brian Skinner and Ha Seung-Jin. I'm pretty sure Skinner and Ha would sign for the league minimum...do you think we could do this one again? That would be a nice band-aid for the remainder of the season.
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i have not heard of anyone here wanting to trade oden
other than that, best trade drawer ever
bayless leaves over my dead body
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
#52 #4 #24
Washington Huskies=2011 Rose Bowl Champions
Gavin Dawson on the MSP
but radio personalities would never throw out outrageous ideas to increase ratings, would they?
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I've heard it, albeit rarely.
Also, at least once a year at the beginning of each season since he’s been drafted, at least one person will suggest we trade Roy while his stock is high (usually because he takes a few weeks to play into the previous year’s shape, and the initial dip in production is seen as a sign he’s on the downside of his career).
Rec
After reading all of this I have realized we don’t need to trade anyone, we just need to tinker the set up we have next season.
rather then trade LA don’t make him the #2 guy on our team, make him the #3 and move Oden to the #2 (assuming he comes back healthy).
rather then trading Blake or Trout let them walk at the end of the season making roster space for us to bring over a couple of our Euro’s to develop
rather then moving Miller let him stay and don’t pick up the option after next season by then Bayless should be ready to start and Mills can back him up.
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
re: natural process
That was somewhat my point in my short rant. Many times the piece you trade for has much of the same skill set you may already have – you just don’t know it. With the increased minutes some of our playersare recieving, and the results we’ve seen, I think this year is a great example of how a TEAM can evolve together. 90% of our squad have played together a while, maturing together, learning ingorporate individuals’ strengths, and learning how to play team ball (especially on defense). We saw how long it took to gel with Andre and I think part of that success is due to his increased minuts due to injuries.
Incorporating a new player is tough. Sometimes it never happens. I thought for a while this may be the case with Dre. New players don’t know you deffensive schemes, offesive plays, and they aren’t used to playing with the rest of the team, however improving young guns have practiced, traveled and played with the team. Just another young teamate who is ready to play.
Some players are going to walk for more playing time and more money. Its inevitable, but if they are an important part of your franchise you can keep them the majotiy of the time. And, with KP at the helm, I bet we’ll be stocked with young up and coming talent for a long, long time. After all draft day comes every year.
While we don't need a trade as some have insisted...
… if one materializes that makes sense, it probably shouldn’t be passed up. Only hindsight can reveal the wisdom of a trade of course, but if you can give up Kwame Brown and get Pau Gasol in return, you do it.
by zaruga on Jan 24, 2010 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Voted 2nd option
I would not be upset if it ended up being the first. I think this team is good enough, as is, to possibly do something in the playoffs (upset a higher seed in the first round or at least make it a dangerous series for them) this year if they get Roy, Batum and Bayless back healthy and Rudy gets back playing at least like he did last season. There is even a possibility that Outlaw and Oden make it back by playoff time and they become an even more dangerous team.
If they can get some help at the 5 without mortgaging the future, it would be great. Otherwise, let’s see what happens with this team. The worst that could happen is everyone gets tired down the stretch and they miss the playoffs. Disappointing, but gives them some better options this summer with a higher draft pick. ( I seriously doubt the worst I laid out will happen, but is it really that bad considering what they are already bringing back next year and beyond??)
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Very nice summary
In terms of “hosing”, in retrospect (and even back then) I don’t share the disgust a number of fans and even coaches have shown for the Gasol – Gasol trade. That’s a bit like looking at the outcome of a foul, and when the player falls to the ground and doesn’t get up immediately declaring it a flagrant 1 or 2 while it would have been a normal foul if the player had happened to land on his feet. Just because people were not happy with the Lakers getting even better, that doesn´t mean it was a horrible trade. Memphis also got what it wanted with that deal, shedding salary and acquiring a great younger and cheaper player (he was already very good in Spain at that time) as well as getting cap space. They were also able to move Crittenton to Washington to get their own draft pick back, a pick that became much more valuable than the other picks it got from LA. That they then turned around and used that cap space in the end on Zach Randolph might be due to a slight mind change of the owner (and the need to get over the minimum cap limit), and Zach isn’t even playing bad this year.
How about this example for ‘hosing’: The Cavs got Mo Williams from the Bucks for Joe Smith and Damon Jones, with Seattle also involved. And Joe Smith even returned to them a year later for the playoffs. Upgrading from a chucker to one of the best guard shooters in the league? Not bad. As many (one might say most) deals in todays NBA, it was a financially motivated deal for the Bucks to get rid of Mo’s contract – that they had just signed him to while paying more than they could sustain. Teams that are willing to take on salary can “win” more or less lopsided trades. Maybe again this year. It remains to be seen if the Blazers will be a buyer or again a neutral team this February, passing on more chances in order to grow with the existing team. Potentially disrupting chemistry or sending out a player who becomes great on another team, vs. potentially ending up with missed chances or even having not enough talent in the end if some of the young guys don’t develop as planned/have injury problems/got overpaid. The difficult thing about predictions is that they involve the future.
I argued hard at the time of the Gasol trade ...
… that Chris Wallace was being unfairly criticized on two counts:
1) The deal was not as lopsided as everyone was claiming, due primarily to Memphis getting both cap relief and young picks and players, one of whom (Gasol the younger) was already giving some indication of being better than his brother.
and
2) The odds were it was the only realistic deal available.
To be fair, I thought trading for Randolph was a mistake, but so far, the results are showing I was wrong on that score. Memphis is playing considerably better than I would have thought at the start of the season.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
It's a balancing issue
As much as I like Pendergraph and Dante, it remains to be seen if they can cut it against top-caliber opposition in regular rotation minutes. That leaves us with only two proven rotation players in the 4/5 positions going into next year (assuming Oden recovers fully and Przybilla is not full strength). As others have stated, it seems unlikely that Outlaw will be brought back, given that we have used draft picks on Dante, Claver and Pendergraph, all of whom will require minutes at Travis’s 3/4 position. So I don’t count him here.
On the other hand, we currently have seven proven rotation players vying for playing time at the point and on the wings (Brandon, Jerryd, Steve, Nicolas, Martell, Rudy and Andre). The rotation crunch would be alleviated here if you just let Steve and Travis walk for nothing, but given all the assets that we won’t be able to make good use of over the long term, it makes sense to package a couple of these guys with the expirings for an established “big.”
Nice post, though, and I agree you shouldn’t trade just because you feel forced. But I think it could be a win/win for both us and a team with a big guy that’s looking for young talent to make a trade.
by atomiccafe on Jan 23, 2010 3:17 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
agree
the most sensible trade is to help the log jam of moderately proven talent. However, I don’t think we need another player per Zboy below.(unless you could get a youthful difference maker like Bosch.)
Kp has the cards (and also the attention) that may dictate trades, But he has to consider what he wants this team to look like in the future .
What team, is the question. Is it the one with Oden ?The one with Miller? The one with Bayless? This team has yet to identify itself….. It has horses but doesn’t run. It has Roy who has a well-defined comfort zone. Questions with LMA and only one clear choice for the 1,2,3 spots. (no one has stepped up enough to lay permanent claim to these rotating spots) Except I would say Miller is a clear favorite at point….So there you are again, still a lot of confusion and uncertainty. Style of play and Nate’s confusing inability to incorporate new bodies in the mix.
Just some questions when your building a team, that may or may not, be a concern of KP. (but I bet it is)
Any trades or other deals have to be reconsidered because of the events of this season. The window was supposed to open this year, setting up next year as the one of reckoning…Things have changed. Predictions for Portland’s future are a lot more difficult now, than before the start of the season.
By the way, I like Neko Case. She is a little know artist that, I believe, is from the Seattle area.
I like her music and own 3 cd’s of hers. Including the one on your photo.
Rec'ed for saving me a lot of typing....
All season I have been advocating the idea of packaging Trout and Blake for a big. Originally, I saw that big as a back-up 4/emergency 5. Now, with Pryz seriously hurt and facing an uncertain return and with the development of Pendy and Donte, I see it more as a back-up 5.
Trout and Blake are both useful players with tradable expiring contracts. The team has largely outgrown both guys and their utility to the team is declining. It just makes sense to get value for these guys while we can. Even if both Oden and Pryz are ready by next fall, given their histories, it makes sense for this team to carry three centers rather than four point guards.
I don’t think you do a deal unless you get someone with decent utility as a emergency guy next year. I don’t think we should be begging, we should be looking.
by upper left corner on Jan 24, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
Trout and Blake have some value
but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect more than a rent-a-center if that’s all we’re willing to give up. If we’re really looking for a backup for the next 3-4 years, it’s going to take a package of one or two of our young prospects (Martell, Nic, Rudy, Jerryd) + some combination of expiring contracts + a draft pick or two. Centers are valuable—ask Orlando why they paid to keep Gortat. But even if we give up more in potential than we get back in talent, it achieves the goal of balancing our roster, getting a useful backup at center and also setting our perimeter rotation more concretely such that the guys who are left know their roles and have time to develop.
Trout and Blake combine for about $7 mil which is the going rate for back-up bigs.
We don’t need a guy with a huge offensive game. We need a guy who can defend and clean the glass if GO or Pryz is unavailable. I am not against sweeteners, but I don’t think you need to give up one of our top young guys.
by upper left corner on Jan 25, 2010 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
maybe right on blake but
I don’t know that we don’t need outlaw anymore. We sure could have used his fourth quarter play over the last couple of months. I think his value is downplayed. Aside from BRoy he’s the only guy I trust with the ball in the fourth, and his rapidly developing D and three ball looked real nice at the start of the season.
I don't totally disagree
I am ambivalent about Trout.
I like having a guy who can spread the floor at the PF position. Combined with Roy, Bayless, and a shooter (Webster, Rudy) and a big guy in the middle, that is a line-up that can stretch the defense and create opportunities for Roy and Bayless.
My problems with Trout have always revolved around team defense, rebounding, and shot selection. He seems to slowly be making progress on all three. On the other hand, Trout’s ability to create his own shot should be less critical now that we have Miller, and with Bayless’ and Batum’s development.
I’m not adverse to keeping Trout, but I would be willing to part with him if we could get a quality big.
by upper left corner on Jan 26, 2010 8:06 AM PST up reply actions
So far this season both guys have shown they can play.
While it is yet to be determined if they are capable of starter’s minutes on a regular basis, both look like they are certainly capable of providing solid play off the bench. What more do you want? If Oden and Aldridge are going to be the starters, 15 – 20 minutes of solid play out of Pendergraph and Cunningham is sufficient. They don’t have to play like all-stars.
And if Portland wants some extra insurance, they should have little problem signing an extra big, just as they did this off season with Howard. If you recall, the decision was between “which” big man they were going to keep, Howard or Collins. It wasn’t as if they had a problem signing someone.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Pendy and Dante might be awesome
but like you say, we don’t really know. And in any case, my preferred method of big man rotations is to have three big guys who can play together in several combinations. The Lakers are the prototype for this: Gasol starts at PF with Bynum playing center while Odom basically backs up both positions. Denver has a similar rotation with Nene, Birdman and Kenyon Martin. By using a rotation like this, you can basically promise three players starter minutes (it comes out to about 33 minutes a night divided evenly). Since LaMarcus is much more effective at the four than the five, and since Cunningham and Pendergraph are pretty undersized as long-term solutions at the “5,” I’d like to bring in a guy who can play both 4 alongside Oden and 5 alongside LaMarcus. Those 3 would then play the lion’s share of the big man minutes, with Pendergraph and Cunningham as emergency replacements.
Although I agree with you that Pendergraph and Cunningham are quite serviceable, there are a number of players that are either already beyond serviceable or are widely recognized to have potential to become better than serviceable in the backcourt. Jerryd, Rudy, Nicolas and Martell all fit this description. However, because of our unbalanced roster, some of them will not receive the playing time necessary to fulfill this potential. Because we realistically we cannot play all of these guys in the long-term, and because they are highly-regarded prospects with decent trade value, we would be well served by packaging one of them to obtain an upgrade over Pendergraph and Cunningham in the frontcourt.
Blake and Trout are the only guys I am willing to trade
That leaves us with
PG: Miller, Bayless, Mills as a project/change of pace
SG: Roy, Rudy, Bayless
SF: Nic, Marty, Rudy
Minutes are tight, but it gives us good depth and versatility to overcome injury. Rudy is the guy who might be unhappy with this scenario for the long term, but we can cross that bridge when we get there.
by upper left corner on Jan 25, 2010 5:59 PM PST up reply actions
long term
I don’t believe we can keep both Nic and Marty long term. Neither has the handle to play the 2, and while Nic is capable of playing some “stretch 4,” his biggest strength is perimeter “D.” That would be wasted playing there. Players do not produce as well in +/- 20 mins a night as they do in 35. As such, I think we should eschew splitting the time at the three down the middle, and choose a starter to play 33-38 minutes a night. That makes the other guy expendable, since Roy can play small forward against most backup 3s, and you would always have Dante in case of matchup issues (a big backup 3 that our three guard lineup can’t handle).
Injuries?
If this season has taught us anything, it has taught us that you need extra quality players who can step up in case of injury. Brandon takes a beating is always likely to miss a few games. Rudy is a skinny greyhound who takes a beating. We need extra guys. Three player rotations at the 1-2 and 4-5 are great in theory, but one injury is enough to cause major havoc. I would prefer to have quality hree player depth at every position (counting players who can play multiple positions).
I do agree that if you are going to trade any of the young perimeter guys the two most likely candidates are Rudy and Martell, but I would prefer to keep both.
by upper left corner on Jan 26, 2010 7:58 AM PST up reply actions
One more response in what has been a really informative exchange
It’s good to go back and forth in paragraph form.
The quality depth we have this year is great, but it is primarily allowed by circumstances that won’t be present when we’re making a championship challenge. Namely, we have huge numbers of players who are either on rookie contracts or have not proven themselves as rotation players in the eyes of the rest of the league. This allows us to have seven NBA ready perimeter players. Once we have to choose which of those players has to get paid, we won’t have the luxury of keeping high-quality players in “break in case of emergency” status. A good big man won’t play for the Blazers if he sees his role as being the 4th guy behind LA, Oden and Joel (as Tim points out below). We also won’t have enough money to pay good big men (or good guards) to sit behind the players who get most of the use.
Additionally, I think your points about injuries sort of reinforce what I was saying about roster balance. We don’t know about Joel’s future, so that leaves us with just Greg and LaMarcus in the frontcourt. Pendergraph’s effort is great, but he really looks overmatched at times. We need another quality big next year. I would love to obtain a guy like that in a straight salary dump, because those perimeter guys are all good players with high ceilings on cheap contracts. But on the flip side, they also represent really nice chips in a trade for exactly the same reason. If we need to get another big, our options are basically to trade or get someone at the MLE. So if the right deal comes along and they want Rudy, then you at least listen. Although I think we probably totally agree on how hard it is to trade multiple guys with high ceilings for a proven guy (the elusive consolidation trade). KP’s job is never easy and never done.
Late to the party
I’ve made my feelings on these issues known elsewhere, but I think this argument breaks down into two categories 1) what do the Blazers need right now, and 2) what’s the best decision for the future? Right now the team needs a center, with similar skills as Przybilla. Any offense from this big man would be a bonus, but he should be able to block shots and rebound, to help the team make defensive stops especially in crunch time. For the future, KP needs to hang onto his young talent (Batum, Bayless, Rudy) I wouldn’t put those guys into any deals, unless the “return” was an all-star caliber player, and that’s not an immediate need
Blake (EC) Outlaw (EC) and perhaps Webster are the main trade assets. Sweeteners include Mills, Koponen, Freeland, Claver, draft choices and Paul Allen’s money. There’s enough “value” there to acquire a center like Joel. KP needs to bite the bullet and make a deal to help his undermanned front line compete between now and May; dealing any of the players in this paragraph (obviously not all of them) would not significantly affect Portland’s future plans
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Mostly agreed
I think Trout and Blake ought to be enough to get the caliber of guy we are talking about.
I would be reluctant to trade Webster because I think his spot up ability can be a tremendous asset with an eventual Roy/Bayless backcourt. Marty and Nic are a tremendous one two punch at SF: a shooter who can defend, and a defender who can shoot.
If I were going to trade one of the young guns, I would be more likely to trade Rudy, because I think he has more value and he is more likely to chafe at limited minutes. I also think that Bayless has shown he could be effective as a SG backing Roy. I could see a 3 guard rotation of Roy, Miller, Bayless with Mills and possibly Batum as emergency back-ups. Obviously, we would need to have an idea about Mills before we let Blake go.
by upper left corner on Jan 27, 2010 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
Rudy has more potential value than Martell
I don’t want to trade either, but I can see PT conflicts for both of them, assuming Batum and Roy stay healthy in the months to come. For Rudy I’d be asking for more than Webster, and while Martell’s value is currently at the highest it’s been in his career, Rudy is still recovering from his surgery.
KP can deal Blake and resign him this summer if need be, so I don’t think “finding out what Mills can do” is a factor, re: the decision to deal Blake next month
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Prtland tried doing this over the summer.
They made an offer to David Lee. One difference or complicating factor was that we already had three bigs in LA, Oden and Joel. Throw in Travis playing at the 4 and Lee wondered where his minutes would come from.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
While I agree with the central thesis of your post that most trades don’t accomplish much, two aspects of the Blazers current situation argue for consideration of a major trade.
First, the Blazers presently have too many players with legitimate talent. That’s not to say that we have 12 players with star potential. But, we do have at least 12 players who can be expected to make positive contributions in the NBA, maybe sufficient even to start on some teams.
Although in large part that is positive, it also creates an unstable situation. As a practical matter, for our own sake the roster will need to be pruned even if that brings only future considerations. Most desirable would be if 2 or 3 pretty good players could be traded for 1 somewhat better [read near allstar calibre] player.
Second, this next summer brings an unusual free agent crop and several clear allstars will be likely be moving. Because of our deep rooster and our extraordinary owner, we may be in a position to upgrade. Of course our small market will be a deterrent, but who wouldn’t entertain something like LA and Rudy for Bosh or Bandon ,Travis and other considerations for LeBron. Sure, something of that nature is purely speculative, but (1) we can probably offer better talent than most to a team who is going to lose an allstar in any case, and (2) the strength of remaining talent together with our wealthy and committed front office might be more attractive to a young star than trying to win championships in a big market with more modest teammates.
Please don’t misunderstand. I am not overselling either of these possibilities. My point is that the present conditions may be harbour unusual potential for a Blazer trade
present conditions may be harbour unusual potential for a Blazer trade
I don’t think we would be reading “trade LMA” comments and posts if the whole team was healthy and he was playing at this exact same level.
Really?
Wanting to trade LMA for Chris Bosh is just smart, because Chris Bosh is one of the top three players at his position. I don’t think we can offer enough to get Bosh, but people around here have been asking for an LMA-Bosh trade for a while. That’s no slight against LMA. Bosh is better, and he would help our team.
The "roster prunimg" and "consolidation" trade proponents always sound like future GM's ...
… but always fail to acknowledge the simple fact that it rarely happens in the real world. Look at the trades mentioned above. Out of all of them, how many can be classified as a consolidation trade or one made because a team was trying to trim excess talent in order to lessen a minutes issue?
Not one that I can find. Even if we loosen up the definition and just look for instances where a team trade young talent for a “key” or all-star type player, we have maybe three. There is the Garnett trade. There is the Gasol trade and there is the Kidd trade,
The first was driven by the fact that Garnett was almost certainly headed out of Minnesota when his contract expired. The Wolves had two choices – find a decent trade or let him walk for nothing. The second had similar elements to it. Gasol was unhappy in Memphis. There was also a very strong desire at the time on the part of Memphis to cut salary, which this trade did. Still this one can stand as an example of a team trading young pieces and picks for a top of the line player. The Kidd – Harris trade does fit the bill for trading youth for a veteran all-star. But it is basicall a straight up PG for PG trade. No pruning or consolidation and it involved a highly rated and sought after young PG in Harris. Not sure how many of the Blazers, other than Aldridge, fit his category.
In other words, the odds of this type of deal being available is extremely low. Judging Pritchard on his performance based on his making one is similar to judging a person’s financial success based on them having to win the lottery.
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Agreed all around.
Pursuing the perfect consolidation trade is like is like searching for the holy grail. Many look, few find.
by upper left corner on Jan 25, 2010 6:03 PM PST up reply actions
Do the math
7 perimeter players (8 if you count Mills…Outlaw makes 8-1/2 when he’s back)
4 big men, two are rookies. None are a true center
KP did make a trade last February (Diogu for Ruffin) He recently said he’s going to be “active”. Maybe “nothing happens” next month, but there will be ongoing trade speculation here, right up until the final minute of the deadline.
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
ok I bite
“The Definition”??
Sorry if I’m out of it… my best guess is Webster, as in the Webster’s Dictionary.
So what I take away from about two years of listiening to fans play fantasy GM is
a series of proposals to trade away the farm for, lessee, Caron Butler, Maxseil, Millsap, Prince, Hinrich…all of whom suck or on the quick downturn this year.
Or the other series of proposals where we trade leftovers, bench players and a rose garden hot dog for Chris Paul, Bosh or Devin Harris.
When it’s all said and done I’m glad Pritchard is running the team.
by raoulduke on Jan 23, 2010 10:38 PM PST reply actions 3 recs
Rec'ed for TRUTH and LAUGHTER
90% of all talk is ignorant balderdash.
9.99% is entirely speculative.
.01% actually makes sense and is worth wasting key strokes on.
My personal non-favorites are the ones where we package three, or more, quality, young guys for one aging near- star whose production is about to fall off a cliff.
by upper left corner on Jan 24, 2010 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Regardless.
We still have too many of the wrong chess peices when everyone gets back healthy. I think what all the injuries have proven is that less is more. Guys simply play more focused and with more energy when they are a big part of the rotation. I think when the minutes get spread out just so everyone can play there’s a tendancy for players to go through the motions. You would think that if your only going to get 15-20 minutes a game you would go balls out with the energy but that never happened with this team early on.
I don't disagree, I think my point was that Pritchard has been getting it right so far.
I enjoy most of what I read on BE even if I disagree with a lot of it. But the trade talk is just annoying.
I agree the trade talk is annoying. I think the anti trade talk more interesting.
What do us fans know anyways? I think that Portland has intelegent fans, but we’re just fans. The Orlando Magic fans voted to trade Shaq. True story, look it up.
well, maybe the Magic fans were right, then
if Pat Williams had made a deal at the deadline, at least he would’ve had something to show for one of the biggest “assets” in NBA history
letting superstars walk away for nothing to save a few bucks = epic fail. There’s no positive way to spin that to your fanbase
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
What the injuries have proven is that the ability to identify talent ...
… and have it available is of considerable value. It hasn’t proven anything with regard to having less talent.
Without Webster and Batum, who plays SF when Batum goes down? Without Miller, Bayless and now Rudy, who picks up the scoring load off the bench with Travis out, or in the starting lineup when Roy has to miss games? Without two well coached 4 year rookies and a gray beard previously considering retirement, where would Portland be with both centers on the DL?
Does anyone really believe that Portland plays as well as it has if three or four of these guys were not on the roster?
Clarence, It's better to have a gun and not need it, then need a gun and not have it.
Maybe between tonights game and AllStar Weekend Brandon can convince
CP3 to demand a trade to Portland!
\sarcasm, but I can dream.
great post
with the exception of including kirk hinrich in the “good/impact players that get drafted and not traded.” that list is the who’s who of the NBA (cp3, deron, lebron, etc) and yet you threw hinrich in there.
All of them are on their rookie contracts (excluding Hinrich, of course)
or were extended as restricted free agents. The fact that so many of the young good players are heading into unrestricted free agency is going to kill some of the franchises that DON’T make a trade, assuming that not all of them will re-sign with their current team.
Two points scored by GO’ = "thunderdunk"
The 10% is pretty tantalizing, don't you think?
Here’s another list for you:
Shaq
Rasheed
KG
Ray Allen
Pao Gasol
These are marquee players who were traded in the past decade, and who then won a title with their new team within a couple of years.
Two points scored by GO’ = "thunderdunk"
In fact...
I think the only championship teams that didn’t trade for all-star players in the last 2 decades were the Spurs and the Bulls. So, as I see it, unless you draft one of the 10 greatest players of all time (like Jordan or Duncan), a trade seems practically essential.
Unless Oden stays healthy (or LMA becomes a lot more assertive), I’m not convinced the current roster is winning a championship. :-(
Two points scored by GO’ = "thunderdunk"
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