Wins +/- over same games from last year (actually 3 back)

by blazer91 on Jan 14, 2010 4:23 PM PST

I started this a few weeks back and just wanted to update. Where are we vs. last year?

Well, when last I posted, we were two wins behind last year's pace, with a couple "favorable" games upcoming to try to get back on pace. Now? Three behind. Even though we actually had the exact same record at this point in the season last year, our schedule was much tougher to this point. Versus the same teams, we are actually three games off the pace:

So far, We "ADDED" wins (vs. last year) @ New Orleans, @ Charlotte, @ Dallas, @ OKC, @ San Antonio and vs. LA Clippers.
We "DROPPED" wins (vs. last year) @ Orlando, Miami, @ New York, Denver, Memphis, Atlanta, @Milwaukee, @ LA Clippers, and Memphis (again).

Again, the methodology is to look at the same games on the schedule between the two seasons, taking into account schedule changes (i.e., Drop last year's SECOND home games with Phoenix (A WIN) and New Orleans (A LOSS), and replace them with SECOND home games with Houston (A WIN 12/5) and Golden State (4/14). Drop last year's SECOND road games with the Lakers (A LOSS) and San Antonio (A WIN), and replace them with SECOND road games with Dallas (1/30) and Sacramento (4/3).

So, at this point in the season, we are one game better on the road (five up and four down), but four games worse at home (one up and five down).

Not bad, considering all this team has been through and anticipating getting guys back as we go forward.

BTW, if you want to play along, here are the remaining losses from last year in the order we play them this year (which for you people with the power of deduction tells you what our wins should be to keep pace with last year):

JAN (4-5 in remaining games, with the following losses last year):

Orlando

@ Philly

@ Boston

@ Houston

@ Dallas

FEB (11-2, with the following losses last year):

@ Utah

@ Phoenix

MAR (9-4, with the following losses last year):

@ Denver

@ Golden State

@ Phoenix

Dallas

APR (3-4, with the following losses last year):

@ Denver

Dallas

@ LA Lakers

Golden State

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Comments

Nice compliment to Jscot's weekly schedule updates.

I agree that given the injuries, the team has been remarkable.

The other thing to keep in mind is how strong the team finished last year. Come March and April, this years team is going to have a hard time keeping up with last year’s blistering pace. We need to keep pace this month and next. Remember that is the time frame when Blake and Oden were out some last season.

by upper left corner on Jan 15, 2010 8:19 AM PST reply actions

Well, February will make or break it.

They have to win 11 of 13 games to keep pace

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Jan 15, 2010 8:50 AM PST up reply actions

this is great!

Good perspective on both what to expect this year & remembering last year.

Nice work!

by zbrum on Jan 15, 2010 12:17 PM PST reply actions

Another way to look at this:

To keep pace with last year (actually to be no more than three games off the pace, which is where we stand today), we can’t lose another home game after tonight’s Orlando game (this game was a loss last year) until the END OF MARCH! Daunting.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Jan 15, 2010 3:52 PM PST reply actions