Trade prop. from a Bulls fan
by L. Toro on Jan 12, 2010 1:44 PM PST
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PrintBlazersEdgers, I'm a longtime lurker, rare poster over at BlogaBull, and I notice some back and forth between blog audiences occasionally. With that in mind. please consider the following proposal (I should probably include anyone from the Wizards blog too, as I think they might protest first in this deal.) But nonetheless:
Blazers get:
Brendan Haywood (expiring)
Wizards get:
Tyrus Thomas (expiring)
2010 Bulls #1
Bulls get:
Travis Outlaw (expiring)
Steve Blake (expiring)
Joel Pryzbilla
Probably feels like a lot to give up from the Blazers perspective, but I think Butler is the best player in the deal and could definitely be the 3rd best player on a championship team. And Haywood can play this year and maybe more depending on Oden's health. Outlaw and Blake are both expiring. Of course, you'd hate to lose Rudy and Pryz, but I think Haywood is at least as good as Pryz and Rudy plays the same position as Roy. (Playing them together is fine, though I don't think a longterm solution, and Rudy should be a starter in the NBA. From an outsiders perspective, I don't think Rudy will ever reach his potential as Roy's backup, esp. with Bayless deserving minutes too.) The trade also takes away some financial flexibility for the Blazers, but again, I think it makes you legit championship contenders, particularly next year when Oden is back. Of course it doesn't address the Andre Miller situation, but I can only do so much for your franchise ;).
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Don’t see anyone trading for Pyzbilla given his injury…Also, I’m not sure Caron Butler fits well with Nate McMillans system since he cannot shoot the tree. Also, we are not much in the running for Expiring contracts…Perhaps if we received Antwan Jamison?
GREEEEEEEEEEEEEEG OOOOOOOOOOOOOODEEEEEEEEEN
agreed,
I dont see anyone wanting Joel, Caron probly isnt a good fit with Martell and Nic. Good thought though, on paper it is a good idea, in practice im not so sure.
by blazerbeliever97504 on Jan 12, 2010 1:53 PM PST up reply actions
injuries
yeah, i hear you about Joel’s injury, though i think the Bulls would bite the bullet to get a great outside shooting two-guard like Rudy to pair with Rose in the backcourt and the potential for much-needed depth on the frontline. And it wouldn’t hurt their cap space for the summer as he and Rudy together make about the same as Hinrich. Then they could fill the PF position in FA.
But yeah, I guess that’s what I was wondering, whether Butler would fit in Portland. Cheers
Expiring big man contract would be enticing
we get a fill-in for this year without worrying about where he fits next year
by momomoses7 on Jan 12, 2010 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
heh
I’m not sure, Fernandez is almost untouchable and we don’t really need/want Butler I don’t think.
I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
I agree
I don’t see Butler fitting into the Blazers future plans as of now. As of 3 years ago? You bet, but with Batum and Webster both playing the 3 I don’t see the need for another SF on this team. Haywood would be awsome for this year, and next if he could be resigned as a back up 4/5.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
ya see you're right about Rudy's development, but not about joel.
joel’s value in PDX>>value in rest of NBA. Haywood is a passable substitute though as he at least can put a few pts up on the board. I think the bulls make out like bandits though. Kirk is playing better but still not at the level he once was and tyrus thomas is a player that i think frustrates everyone with his potential and how it is untapped.
Besides, this is bolstering us at the 3 and I think that is the position of least need aside from SG. We need a PG. We’d much more likely center a deal on Devin Harris.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
This trade would leave us dangerously thin.
We’d have essentially guards TOTAL (Miller, Bayless, Roy), and 3 SFs (Butler, Webster, Batum), One Power Forward, and 2 centers.
You could argue that Webster could substitute into SG for stretches, but we’d still have a very thin line up.
"Ain't nothin' in this world for free."
same with Batum for that matter
In the NBA you are what you can defend. Of course with Batum in the game the offense might not have enough firepower.
Two years ago I would have done it
Butler has declined too much for me to make this move now, though.
#52
He's had his share of injuries as well
Batum and Martell both have bright futures. I wouldn’t do this deal even if Butler wasn’t an injury risk.
"I been ridin' the midnight train, got ice water in my veins." -Bob Dylan
"Sasha? That's a sissy name." -Mike Rice
Quoting the OP
Probably feels like a lot to give up from the Blazers perspective, but I think Butler is the best player in the deal and could definitely be the 3rd best player on a championship team.
I completely disagree. Butler has played just awful this year and appears to be on the downswing of his career. I think Outlaw, Rudy and Hinrich are the best players in the deal (not necessarily in that order).
At best, that’s a half season “fix” for the Blazers, a team that is set up to be elite for 8-10 years as is.
You won.
by Roybot on Nov 11, 2009 1:41 AM PST
WHOA
just because Outlaw is a better athlete and 1 on 1 player than Butler does not make him a better NBA player. Butler is an excellent defender and smart team player, as well as a more efficient and prolific scorer than Outlaw, een this year. Still not sure if I do the trade, but i think Butler on the downswing of his career is better than any of those 3 right now, and Hinrich is years removed from his best seasons.
some rebuttals
Butler is a better defender than Outlaw, but he hasn’t been an elite defender for several seasons now. Picking up Butler for his defense would be a mistake at this point in his career. I think Outlaw would actually be a more efficient scorer than Butler this year assuming Outlaw could improve, even slightly, on what he did last year. Butler’s shooting is down to 42% at the moment. Their TS% are the same (comparing this season for Butler and last season of Outlaw as a proxy)…Outlaw hits 3s, Butler gets to the line, so those essentially balance out. Butler has a very small edge in scoring ability once you factor in minutes and pace.
I should also make one of my implicit criteria explicit. I didn’t intend to mean the absolute best player right at the moment. Clearly, that would be a silly comparison because Outlaw is injured. I was factoring in age for the players involved as I noted with the comment about Butler. And it’s tough not to also factor in contract size as well, even though we’re talking about performance. Do I want 25 year old Outlaw with a 4 million dollar/year contract or a 29 year old Butler with a 9 million dollar/year contract?
Similar arguments can be made for Rudy, but in his case, I would put even more emphasis on his production/dollar. Rudy for 2 million/year? Great deal.
You won.
by Roybot on Nov 11, 2009 1:41 AM PST
I love it!
But then again, I think Prz will probably never be the same (unfortunately) even if he is able to come back. Also, trading Blake & Outlaw is a non-issue, because if we desire we can resign them for next year. So this trade is essentially Rudy for Butler & Haywood which is a sweetheart of a deal given how much we need a center.
that is kind of the crux of the deal...
whether or not Joel can come back. If Joel is done for I like the deal… if he can come back in decent shape next year I am not so sure I like it.
I don't mind including Joel
in a deal for a better player, but not for Butler, he has declined alot since he was pretty good, so now he is only kind of good, which is what the team has in Batum and Webster, but both of them are still young and can improve, while Butler is getting older and will just decline.
Ben II Blazersedge.com || New to Blazers' Edge?
Wow
> Probably feels like a lot to give up from the Blazers perspective,
yes, quite
> but I think Butler is the best player in the deal and could definitely be the 3rd best player on a championship team.
Yes – and so could Fernandez and Outlaw.
> And Haywood can play this year and maybe more depending on Oden’s health.
Since we are giving up Przybilla, he’d have to play in relief minutes for Oden.
Haywood for Przybilla is a downgrade from the Blazers’ perspective.
> Outlaw and Blake are both expiring. Of course, you’d hate to lose Rudy and Pryz, but I think Haywood is at least as good as Pryz
no
> and Rudy plays the same position as Roy. (Playing them together is fine, though I don’t think a longterm solution, and Rudy should be a starter in the NBA. From an outsiders perspective, I don’t think Rudy will ever reach his potential as Roy’s backup, esp. with Bayless deserving minutes too.)
I agree with this. Someday soon, Rudy will have to go in a trade – but not this trade.
> The trade also takes away some financial flexibility for the Blazers, but again, I think it makes you legit championship contenders, particularly next year when Oden is back. Of course it doesn’t address the Andre Miller situation, but I can only do so much for your franchise ;).
It does address it, by trading Blake.
I’d prefer a 2 for 1 deal where Blake and Outlaw go for someone better than Haywood. – Elgin
OK...so girls in movies where guys wear hockey masks have a better survival rate than the average Blazer player. - Dave
Are you serious?
Haywood is a downgrade from Prz? Do you have anything to back that up with?
Also, who are we going to get for Blake + Outlaw that is better than Haywood?
Here is something to back it up with.
Joel is one of the top three rebounding centers in the league.
Joel is one of the top three defensive centers in the league.
BUT I DON’T WANNA LOSE RUDY, BAYLOR!!!
In Bayless I trust.
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A further examination
Yes, Joel is a better rebounder, that’s true.Haywood is better at everything else.
They are 1 month apart in age, so that’s a non-factor.
Injuries, however, are a factor. Haywood has been in the league 8 years, and has played at least 60 games 7 times. Prz has been in the league 9 years, and has played at least 60 games 4 times, and that doesn’t count this year. So even if Joel were perfectly healthy at the moment, relying on him for the future would be ignoring the past.
Joel’s PER last 3 years:
12.10
15.46
11.35
Average: 12.97
Haywood’s PER last 3 years:
18.14
14.97
16.15
Average: 16.42
PER an innapropriate metric in this case
Per measures offense, and nobody will tell you Joel’s impact on the game is on offense. He is a defensive juggernaut. He defends every center outside of Yao well and is one of the most efficient rebounders in the game to boot. That’s it what Blazer’s fans want from their backup center—not another scorer; we already have plenty of those on the team. Although Joel does have one extremely good gift on offense, that is screening. But PER doesn’t count the number of screens set that lead to baskets.
But it does count rebounding
Which is really Joel’s calling card.
Another reason their PER is so different is because Joel turns the ball over >20% of his possessions, while Haywood’s turnover rate is about 12%. That’s a big difference. Blame moving screens if you like, blame bad hands, but any way you slice it, playing with Joel is playing 4 on 5 on offense.
I agree that he’s a better defender than Haywood. Definitely. No doubt. But to make the statement that “Haywood is a downgrade from Prz”, their defensive abilities would have to be as far apart as Stevie Blake’s & Gary Payton’s.
I like Outlaw/Rudy as much as the next guy
But the 3rd best player on a championship team should be able to play pretty good, focused D for entire games.
You do realize Rudy was leading the league in steals until Ariza's hit came back to haunt him.
Steals may not equal defense, but they are a part of it. And he was the best for a small but significant amount of time.
In Bayless I trust.
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If Oden can stay out of foul trouble playing safety
then Rudy could be quite devastating on the perimeter. We could use a bit of opportunism in our defense.
You won.
by Roybot on Nov 11, 2009 1:41 AM PST
I would do this deal if Haywood's contract didn't expire at the end of this year.
We are essentially giving up up 4 rotation players for 1. Haywood would likely bolt at the end of the season, given how hard a coach Nate is for new players. Haywood would have to make way for Steve Blakes minutes…oh wait! Blake is in the trade! Still though, on paper this looks like a good trade for all teams, but the Blazers get the shaft if Haywood walks next year which IMHO is likely.
#10
value wise is pretty good
but I’ll be pretty happy with our SF rotation when Batum comes back, so no need for Butler.
I would do this trade.
You gotta give up value to get value. People dont realize what a stud Butler is. yes we haver Batum, who has potential, but i’ll take talent over potential when it comes down to it.
Here's the deal
Blazers aren’t winning the title this year no matter what (and weren’t before the injuries either), so let’s not hurt our future for a short-term boost.
If we are going to make a trade, then trade a player that doesn’t have a long-term future with the Blazers, like Blake, Outlaw, or Miller. If we can’t get anything good for them, don’t do a trade. We’re not desperate (we have injuries, but like I said, we’re not winning a title this year anyway) and our future looks bright.
Get well Greg! Rip City is still behind you!
Works in the NBA trade machine...
Except, I’m not sure how to figure in the 2010 Bulls first round pick or post a link with those results. Odd little details. Also, it has Chicago and the Wizards losing 2 and 3 games more, respectively, where it has our projected wins increased by +1, so based on that, only we would do such a trade. I like Butler and Haywood well enough, but not enough to want to give up Pryz or Rudy. I might be more open to it maybe with a different sacrifice of our team members, but it would have to be pretty sweet.
Just my 2 cents.
"I struggle, sitting on my hands"--Kevin Pritchard
bulls blazers idea
Martell,andre,draft picks
for
thomas,heinrich
I don't think Washington
gets enough back in this trade. Butler is a borderline all star and Haywood is a big defensive center in the top ten in rebounding. I think Haywood is the sticking point from their perspective. It would leave a heckuva logjam at the three in PDX. Blazers would almost need to make another trade. Blake and Fernandez have similar tools and we would be missing a three point guard threat.
This jumped out to me as well
Only Chicago gets the positive balance but hey – the guy is from Chicago!
Without a contract and the Wizards in turmoil the addition of Thomas is marginal at best. The draft pick might get something done at the draft but until the players declare and the pool is set draft picks are somewhat a crap shoot. Also note that the fixed salary for 1st round picks might be too high for many teams if the salary cap goes down and especially if a hard cap comes in the next year.
"I could almost fall asleep when he's got the ball," Demopoulos said of Roy. "That's how comfortable I feel with him. He always comes through."
rudy leaves over my dead body
bayless leaves over my dead body
Start Bayless (in a 2 guard lineup)
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
#52
#4
#24
"Pick One."
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
fine
bayless
but rudy leaves over my badly bruised body
bayless leaves over my dead body
Start Bayless (in a 2 guard lineup)
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
#52
#4
#24
by thomasikehara on Jan 12, 2010 8:56 PM PST up reply actions
the Blazers
simply don’t have the right mindset for making trades at this particular time. They are shocked right now, with all the injuries and the Miller/Nate deal. It’s not the best time to make sudden moves right now…So my guess is, they won’t. (not to say that they shouldn’t) but they just don’t know what they have yet and have never developed an identity to give them any clues on what would be their best move on players (if any)
From both a business/player end this trade looks decent. The fans would not like losing Pryz. or Rudy. (it’s funny how Rudy has become invaluable (as in P.R.atmosphere, as well). He can play, but most Europeans, like Rudy, are typically, poor fundamental defenders.(my only knock on him) But we are rich in 2 guards (as Blake and Bayless are more suited to the 2 spot)
Lots of people think Miller should go, but this would be a big mistake (unless they don’t want a true proven point guard.) sorry, Nate your dropping the ball here…Rudy and Miller are our only shot at getting some open court play out of this team…They have to stay, in spite of Nate.
simply don’t have the right mindset for making trades at this particular time. They are shocked right now, with all the injuries
I don’t think KP is hasty in his approach to making deals, if anything, he tends to over-analyze and require more in return for his assets than rival GMs or scouts think they’re worth
and there’s nothing wrong with that, from a Blazer’s fan perspective…unless we happen to find out he’s left a deal on the table that looks like a no-brainer, in retrospect
Outlaw for 2 late first round draft choices (via Memphis) may eventually reside in that category… time will tell
Unless Nate is ready to play a lot of 4 guard lineups in the coming months, KP needs to deal a few wings for a big man. He’s not going to get “poached” by rushing out and making a knee-jerk deal…he could have made that hypothetical “mistake” a few weeks ago and nobody would’ve questioned it, because of the dire need for more size on Portland’s roster
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yes
I don’t see KP as a “standing pat” sort of guy. I’m sure at the start of this season, they were near ready to let things soak for a year. Some of the shock I was talking about is a possible (but private concern) over the integration of Miller into the mix. It boggles my mind why this has been so difficult.
Nate and Roy seem to think it’s their show(I guess it is) and Miller needs to comply. Miller knows full well that if he complies, he will not be the player that he was hired on to do . I am sure that KP thought this transition would go a lot smoother and recognized the need for a floor general type point guard. It “bent” the team in another direction when Miller was added and also getting Greg involved. It’s still further derailed because of the injuries and therefore content to go the easier route to get some wins.
So IMO, the KP-Nate relationship may not be as perfect as it was before. However, KP has built this team from the ground up with Nate included in the package. I think most think, hiring Nate was a good thing, and that he was probably the best coach available.
The question that comes to mind; Is this our the team? I think not. But since change has not been good for this team (via Nate and Roy) then I wonder if KP thinks that letting things play out some, before he decides on the best move for this team. IMO…If he moves Miller, then he is effectively giving the reins to Nate and not addressing the immediate needs of this team.
Most think, a trade needs to happen…it’s newsworthy, at least. The question I brought up is; has this team’s identity already been decided by Nate?…….If so, then KP has a tougher decision to make. (excluding a no-brainer move, like you said)
I am speculating, of course, but the notion that Nate and KP are still on the same page, may be different in private than it is in public. Usually successful franchises need either good agreement or full independence between GM and Coach? So this is why I thought the general state of affairs, in Blazerland, complicates things some.
We can conclude that we’re broken(injuries) but will the missing parts be the rebuilt ones, or replaced with new? IMO We need new parts….and sadly, the question of Oden is at the forefront(IMO). His time frame is rapidly diminishing as an NBA player of significance…even if he comes back and has an injury free year, he still will be well behind what they thought they might receive from this position. There are still quite a few role players in this league, but in starting lineups, everyone needs to be a threat to score. Another area that the Blazers have not been able to conquer (points in the paint)…So this team sort of has an identity, but one that is in limbo and decisions on personnel get more involved because of it.
KP has a proven track record, we shall see….And even if nothing happens, it ’s always fun to speculate.
I heard that Portland and Denver are in the running for Brendan Haywood.
I don’t know who we would trade. Hopefully not Miller. Joel is injured and may not play again in the NBA. His type of injury has been career ending in the past.
not just Haywood, but Jeff Foster as well
Did the Nuggets just lose a big guy to injury? You’d think with Nene and the Bird man they have all they can use
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
The Nuggets have big guys
but they’re not all that happy with them. Bird gives them shotblocking, but his rebounding and post defense are pretty poor. Martin gives them rebounding and defense, but when he’s in the game they don’t have a shotblocking presence. And Nene is more of a power forward, but with those two beside him he’s playing center. So a guy like Haywood would be a true center who can rebound and block shots, allowing Nene to shift to power forward and lightening the load on his shoulders.
I think that they're trying to match up with the L*kers
and they’re already looking ahead to another WCF collision. Haywood could help them defend Bynum in that scenario. The key will be keeping Billups and Melo healthy
When reached 40 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Miller fits the Wizards's need best
And it solves one problem here. The Blazers prize flexibility in their players and a combo 4/5 would be better.
"I could almost fall asleep when he's got the ball," Demopoulos said of Roy. "That's how comfortable I feel with him. He always comes through."
rudy's probably my fav player on the team right now
but i’d do this trade. tough juice will help us a ton.
im not interested in giving up
the blazers 2010 1st rounder, considering if things go bad for us it could potentially be a lottery pick. i would be interested in someone like taj gibson from the bulls, i think he has potential as a game changing forward off the bench.
i wouldnt give up rudy if i was kp
I understand we need a big man but Rudy is a lot better than I think even we know right now. As much as I like Bayless I think he needs to be our trade bait.
I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
We already have two small forwards.
That is the biggest problem. Joel is the 2nd biggest.
Also, Bulls don’t give up much.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Pendy is more valuable than Haywood.
Pendy has lots of upside. I’d rather we stay put and get these guys some minutes
by Hermistonmelons on Jan 17, 2010 3:56 PM PST reply actions
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