How Strong Are the Blazers?
by Dave on Sep 8, 2009 11:45 PM PDT
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PrintAs I said yesterday, I am waist deep in comparative team studies right now in preparation for the upcoming season preview. I won't be ready to make hard and fast conclusions until the Blazers' spot comes up in said preview (traditionally last) but one of the advantages of poring through NBA rosters and stats until your eyes bleed is that you do get a bird's-eye view of the league as a whole. One of the pitfalls of following the team every day is the trees obscuring the forest so this kind of opportunity is refreshing...and sobering.
Even a knee-jerk, first-blush run through the league reveals that Portland's prospects, while strong, are by no means guaranteed...at least not on the basis of talent alone. When we did the season prediction thread a little while ago many of the predictions hovered around the 60-win mark for the Blazers. Some special alchemy will have to happen to bring those prognostications to fruition.
What do the Blazers have compared to the rest of the league?
- They have an incredibly good shooting guard. Though Brandon Roy is not at Kobe Bryant's level of production you'd not be ashamed to field him against anyone in the league, including the elite, big-name off-guards.
- They have a fine, young power forward who probably hasn't hit his production ceiling yet. While LaMarcus Aldridge has holes in his game he's able to make up for most of them with his combination of speed and skill. You can still name a generous handful of power forwards more accomplished, however.
- They have a promising defensive center with a bunch of question marks surrounding him, the biggest of which is his ability to keep up with the game and avoid fouls long enough to stay on the court.
- They have an aging-yet-competent veteran point guard who knows how to pass the ball pushed by a classic utility player who will want to keep his starting spot.
- They have three young-ish small forwards all of whom bring different skills and none of whom yet have a total package.
- They have bench potential that makes them the envy of most teams. But depth is far more useful in maintaining a top spot than it is in earning you one. In fact among developing teams depth, especially depth based on potential, is usually overrated. The odd play versus the Celtics aside, you can only play five guys at once. You can only give seven guys (eight on the outside) major minutes. Potential needs playing time in order to develop and there just aren't enough minutes to go around to make a team with astonishingly "deep" potential practical. Yes, such depth is a benefit. It's just not as telling of one as people estimate. A team with seven talented, established, experienced players who know their roles will usually beat a team with ten guys who could all start someday (or, as the saying goes, could start for other teams now).
Other teams have their own drawbacks, of course. The point isn't that the Blazers are secretly worse off than everyone else. But they're not automatically better off than everyone else either. Collectively this isn't a recipe for a tour de force through the season. That tour could happen, but it's not going to happen just because the Blazers showed up. (Compare them with, say, the L*kers or Cavaliers, whose march looks much more evident.) If the Blazers do make another leap forward it'll be because one or two key players stepped forth definitively (or were traded for someone who steps forth definitively) and because they play as a cohesive unit with a single agenda. The latter factor will likely prove the deciding one. There's no roster-based reason to forecast the Blazers having a major edge against Denver or San Antonio, let alone overtaking the L*kers. There may be reasons on paper to bump Dallas or New Orleans further ahead than they were last year. The Blazers have to hope that their vaunted chemistry, commitment, and unselfishness provide the crucial advantage they need in order to tip the scales when talent alone won't do so. Simply put, they're going to win together as a team this year or they're not going to advance much further than they did last year.
Fortunately the Blazers have shown themselves up to this kind of challenge at the levels through which they've already passed. But the stakes are higher this year and the competition less forgiving. There will be plenty of reasons to anticipate and celebrate the start of this season. But there will be reasons to sweat as well.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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i dont really think there is any way to know the pecking order in the west past the lakers.
that 2-9 spot to me is all up for grabs… rock paper cissors type thing. they could easily meet up with a team in first rnd and can it or make it to w.finals with the right matchup. this has nothing to do with record. blz may end up with 60 wins but not be clear favorites out of that 2nd range pack.
its hard to say. to me if going into the following season its clear, nationally, that the blazers are gonna be challenging the lakers for contention and break out of that 2nd range pack then it will be a successful season. .
I think this year, 6-9 are clearly worse.
L@kers
Blazers, Spurs, Nuggets, Mavericks, Jazz (one of these last three won’t be as good as they are on paper)
One of the last three, Rockets, Suns, Hornets, maybe an up-and-comer.
I think it’s fair to say that there are some teams that definitely won’t be top 4 seeds but could still be in the playoffs.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Portland will blaze the frosty nugs.
Just not exactly like in years past.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
but that is just like every year. we have no idea who it will be. thats why i think its up for grabs.
last year the hornets randomly took a step back, so did suns. i mean who knows…
im not sure the suns wont be more productive this year… and the rockets d may keep them in it. i could see the jazz falling apart with the boozer thing hanging.
but i was thinking more playoff momentum/playoff matchups then regular season record, not sure what the post was meaning to address.
Well, yeah, of course there will be surprises
I just disagree with the sentiment that there are 8 teams who could slot in at 2-4.
I was thinking in terms of where teams will end up as playoff seeds, I guess.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Measured optimism is where I am at
The last three years I have expected big improvement but tempered those expectations for fear of basing them on homeristic predjudices. I don’t see that changing this year. I can see them improving by 4-6 wins and challenging for the #2 seed or staying in 53-56 win area and vying for the #4 seed. I don’t see them taking a step back unless injuries play a large role or all of our worst fears about playing time finally are realized and the chemistry that has helped this team climb the win total ladder runs out.
Adding Miller and Oden staying on the floor for 25-30 minutes a game could make this team much better. The biggest question mark is at the SF position but there are lots of possible answers to the question. I guess we will find out soon enough.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Sure, I'm a Homer
but I wouldn’t trade them for any other team looking at the next three years.
The reality is that they will have to change from potential to proven, while many of their competitors are already proven. Even so I have no doubt they will be amount the league elite. This sport is fickle and the future flies past so this is a time to enjoy and savor.
I’m thinking that Andre will have a significant impact, that Greg will be more than most expect by year-end, that Martell has not forgotten how to shoot and play, that Nic and Rudy are poised for natural development, and that Travis will contribute, again. Oh yah, those young stars Roy and LMA are still improving and steady Blake and Joel will be … steady. No outrageous predictions of extraordinary accomplishment – all within reach. And, all on top of 54 wins.
Look’s to me like 58 and right in the hunt are quite realistic. What if they really click and get hot? 60+ is not out of the question. But that should not be the goal. 54 or 56 but with more player development is my preference. The focus has to be on preparing during the year for performing in the playoffs; that’s really what matters. Winning on the road and playing consistently are this years lessons.
Another way to put it: they will have a very realistic chance to beat any team they play. That makes it interesting.
I just hope they have the fortitude to give all the kids a change to develop. It may be that they all play well enough to do both – win lots of games and generate lots of ‘garbage time’.
I will repeat – this is a time to enjoy and savor.
RT: The focus has to be on preparing during the year for performing in the playoffs; that’s really what matters.
agreed, winning more road games against the WC playoff teams will be the regular-season “measuring stick”
I just hope they have the fortitude to give all the kids a change to develop
but not at the expense of your first point. It’s not 2005, anymore
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Not incompatible,
at least in my mind.
1. Integrating Miller and Webster will take some time.
2. Depth will present some fun experiments for Nate.
3. Fine tuning the timing on both ends will build playoff efficiency.
4. Greg needs run time to manage fouls and improve offensive mix. I’m a contrarian – I think Greg will learn to manage his fouls better if Nate lets him foul out a few times. He needs to learn the frustration of watching and not being able to help because he took himself out of the game.
5. The young ones need to work through the jitters and build confidence. Nate needs to learn the special roles that suit them best so he has some extra tools he can rely on in the playoffs – look who got performance from rookies in the playoffs and see if they got there by polishing the bench during the regular season. They need a chance to develop and need to actually play in games to do so. For example, barring injuries Bayless won’t get lots of run time but he should get enough so he has a comfortable feel on the floor and can work on some specific skills; that way he can be available for a few minutes as a specialist to guard quick point guards. If you don’t give him any chance during the regular season he can’t really help in the playoffs.
All these mean less regular season wins than if they went with a strict 8 man rotation. So, shorter rotation at the beginning to give the core a chance to mesh, more play for the kids in mid-season, and tightening the rotation towards season end and in the playoffs. However, I’m hopeful that blowouts will provide plenty of opportunities.
Bayless and Cunningham
aren’t going to get the same opportunities to develop that Sergio and Outlaw did. Unless the regular players are decimated with injuries, the PT just isn’t going to be there, and “garbage time” minutes are no substitute for meaningful minutes, when the game’s result is still in doubt
All they can do is practice hard, learn from the assistant coaches and “be ready” in case they are needed. But those 48 minutes in 82 games are no longer “developmental time” for any Blazers young-uns. The bar has been raised
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Nice post
Assuming we don’t collapse a la Baby Bulls (which seems unlikely, our roster is more balanced and has a clear #1 player instead of a glut of 2nd and 3rd wheels) it seems likely that we should be able to match our seed from last year. It is so hard to predict the exact number of wins, but it is fair to say that a large number of playoff teams in the West will fall into a 3-5 game range. I would guess we should finish no lower than #2 in the division, as I see an essentially unchanged Jazz team finishing 3rd. If our “worst-case” scenario (barring catastrophic injury) is a similar regular season result as last year, I think we are doing pretty good.
I also hae a degree of optimism for our playoff hopes. Last year I honestly think that we could hae beaten any potential 1st round opponent with our home-court advantage with the exception of the Rockets, who seem to hae our number and were built for playoff success. This year the Spurs and L@akers are the only 2 teams that seem to fit that bill, and it seems likely that we would see neither before the 2nd round if all the preseason pundits are to be listened to. This allows us an excellent chance to win a playoff series, the next major item on our team’s development checklist.
The team that really had the Blazer's number last year was...
Dallas. We couldn’t beat them. I wouldn’t want to run into them in the playoffs, unless we prove we can beat them in the regular season.
What you call a downer ,I call honest.
There is plenty of reasons for optomism, yet many stars would have to align to reach the win levels that some are projecting. For instance we don’t catch teams on back to backs nearly as often as we did last year. Also,until the blazers can prove they have improved their team defense I feel this column is right on the money.
by Phi Slamma on Sep 9, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dave’s article is intentionally not optimistic! Aka somewhat negative. Otherwise know as, possibly, a downer. Maybe even a little bit aggravating.
The definition of the word honesty has nothing do with it, unless we believe Dave is not being sincere?
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
It is what it is.
If I told you that statistically there was more crime and drug-use in an all black neighborhood in downtown Portland as opposed to a suburb in Lake Oswego would you accuse me of prejudice? Why should his statements be aggravating? He stated his opinion based on some of his observations and simply drew a conclusion. Just because his conclusion and prediction doesn’t align with your own neither proves nor disproves he is showing a bias of any kind.
If nothing else, Dave is interfering with my state of ignorant bliss. If he is wrong, I really do have a reason to be aggravated!
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
Nice summary, Dave. But please don't forget to include
our coaches.
I’d put the Blazers coaching staff right up there among the top three in the West .. up there with LA and San Antonio.
On biased perception, I agree
But on paper, the Blazer staff has a LONG way to go.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
I hope we keep them for years.
I think coaches continuity is very important, even more when they´re hard workers and have had increasing success year after year.
They still have to prove they can get success in play offs though.
they will
it was a learning experience for the whole team, including the coaches.
what the hell is this for?
No, Gregg Popovich, Phil Jackson, Jerry Sloan, Rick Adelman, George Karl, Rick Carlisle, and Byron ...
Scott are all unequivocally smarter, more experienced head coaches than Nate McMillan. Heck, McMillan is an average, garden-variety NBA head coach.
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
That's why he is an Olympic coach
It’s all in the interest of international relations. Put good players out there, but just send out an average, garden-variety coach so the other countries have a chance to beat the best players and feel good about it.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
by jscot on Sep 9, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The head coach of the Olympic team has never coached in the NBA, so it's not like a huge deal
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 9, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
It does mean
that people smarter than AK disagree with his assessment.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
I'll say that I'm not surprised Nate McMillan makes a good assistant coach who can ...
handle major egos. That, however, has nothing to do with him being a mediocre tactican, obstinate when it comes to making much-needed in-game adjustments — as well as pre-game modifications, which was noted by the playoffs last year — and an all-around terrible defensive coach regarding the opposition’s efficiency.
Of course, McMillan is the blockhead who puts Greg Oden in a position to rack up fouls by coming out on blown pick-‘n’-roll assignments — which’ll remain a point of contention next year with Andre Miller and Steve Blake, as the team didn’t obtain a guy such as Kirk Hinrich to stifle the opposing point one-on-one and fight through screens — instead of staying at home to defend the paint.
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
That's not entirely surprising, but it's not some validation that McMillian is an elite head coach
He’s in that Scott Skiles, Eddie Jordan, Flip Saunders stratosphere.
The 2009 White Sox....like a 40 degree day.
by Ozzie Montana on Sep 9, 2009 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
AK I am puzzled by your apperant hate for Nate,
Pop,Jackson & Sloan are all nearing retirement. I like the Ricks but Byron Scott & Nate are pretty much a wash in my eyes Try again.
He did it! Yes he did!
I don't hate Nate McMillan. It's just that McMillan isn't a good coach, but rather an average one.
Anyway, here is my finished top-fifteen and bottom-ten rankings of head coaches in the NBA today.
TOP-FIFTEEN
1. Gregg Popovich (He’s simply the best.)
2. Phil Jackson (While he has a few superstars and Tex Winter’s triangle offense to thank for his vast success, the “Zen Master” nevertheless deserves credit for winning over and over again with few bumps in the road along a bumpy, ego-riddled trail.
3. Jerry Sloan (Longevity is hard to come by in such a volatile industry, but his thick-skinned nature and use of a modern-day UCLA high-post offense has made him a fixture among legendary contemporary coaches.)
4. Rick Adelman (He utterly embarrassed Nate McMillan in the playoffs last season, for using the flex motion and relying on smart defenders like Shane Battier baffled his inferior counterpart into submission.)
5. Stan Van Gundy (His use of the 4-outside/1-inside spread offense in Orlando shows that he can adjust his style to fit player personnel, which some coaches are incapable of doing under any circumstances.)
6. George Karl (A master at pushing the ball and installing a trapping defense, his drawbacks include an abrasive personality and crumbling under pressure.
7. Rick Carlisle (As one of the more underappreciated head coaches, he rarely gets enough credit for running an effective motion offense from a variety of sets — such as 2-3, 1-3-1, 3-2, et cetera — yet, even without the recognition, victories still come his way.
8. Larry Brown (The man is a hothead who loves to turn a roster over like Wal-Mart does with its low-end workers, but nobody in the NBA today can run a transition offense and the secondary break — while also getting his guys to fully commit on the other end — these days.)
9. Flip Saunders (Like a poor man’s George Karl, he has had prior trouble during important situations. Yet, insetad of loving a trapping defense like Karl, he relies heavily on zones.)
10. Scott Skiles (Almost like a poor man’s Larry Brown, he has trouble keeping a job for a long time due to being a bullheaded jackass; however, when given the chance, his ability to coach up guys defensively is surpassed by nobody.)
11. Doc Rivers (The man isn’t the greatest tactician, but he sure can motivate a group and does a good job delegating responsibilities to more intelligent assistant coaches.)
12. Byron Scott (Blessed during his coaching career thus far with great point guards, Jason Kidd and Chris Paul, he’s gotten by with a heavy staple of pick-and-roll sets, although it’s been reported in the past that he’s relied on assistants like Eddie Jordan for installing the offensive sets.)
13. Lawrence Frank (Although a protege of Bobby Knight, he’s more about a heavy reliance on the pick-and-roll offensively — similar to Jeff Van Gundy — rather than the old-fashioned motion offense created by his mentor.
14. Nate McMillan (Although his slow-paced high-low zone offense looks like it came out of a middle school playbook, he still manages to coach extraordinarily efficient scoring teams with that system.
15. Mike D’Antoni (Shockingly to most purists, he’s brought success from his run-and-gun offense with the “seven seconds or less” moniker.)
BOTTOM-TEN
10. Jay Triano (Anyone who happily plays Andrea Bargnani at center is a fool.)
9. Paul Westphal (He only won in Phoenix due to the talent around him.)
8. Mike Dunleavy, Sr. (He’s a worse GM than head coach.)
7. Eddie Jordan (How did this failure of a head coach — albeit decent as an assistant — get another shot? A ripe up-and-comer like Mike Budenholzer, a proven commodity like Doug Collins, or a shot in the dark like Tyrone Corbin would’ve made more sense than Jordan.)
6. Mike Woodson (I’m amazed he’s lasted this long in Atlanta.)
5. Mike Brown (He’ll miss John Kuester to run things for him; plus, LeBron James has carried him.)
4. Alvin Gentry (This retread only got another shot due to Terry Porter’s incompetence.)
3. Lionel Hollins (Why’d he get a third shot as the head guy? He should be a career assistant.)
2. Vinny Del Negro (He’s in over his head, while Chicago should’ve hired Phil D. Johnson.)
1. Don Nelson (He’s an old, washed-up has-been who should be put down like Old Yeller.)
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
AK is wrong!!!
I am sorry AK, but you are wrong on some of the coaches you listed as being worse than Nate.
The following coaches are better than Nate:
*Mike D’Antoni
*Don Nelson (age being the only thing that makes this even close)
*Vinny Del Negro
*Eddie Jordan
*Paul Westphal
*Jay Triano
The number one question I have about the Blazers this year is Nate! I hope he proves me wrong, but unfortunately, I do not think he will. Even the players know and are just hoping at this point.
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
Whoa
Del Negro? Triano? You must really hate Nate! That’s an awful thing to say.
Nelly is a perennial loser.
M—
Nelson is just an awful coach.
not sure if he was awful, but man is he awful.
westphal has had little success in the nba. del negro doesn’t know how to call timeouts, who is jay triano?,
the only person i would consider taking over nate is d’antoni. that team would certainly push the ball.
It is not personal.
Don Nelson has won over 1300 games, second on the all time list. He has a .565 win percentage over a very long career. Certainly not a perennial loser.
I do not dislike Nate as a person. I actually thought he was a good hire. And one might even say he has done his job, but he just is not a championship level coach. (Note: any coach can win with enough talent.)
I also try to get a feel for the player’s opinions, and from what I see, at best, it is a mixed bag regarding Nate. Many of the players flat out disagree with his coaching strategies as evidenced by displays of displeasure on the sidelines and comments in the press. Among those I would list are Rudy, Nic, and Greg, along with players now gone from last year’s team, Channing, and Sergio. I also look heavily on the offensive and defensive X’s and O’s, and Nate is not even close to Pop or Phil, let alone Adleman, or, or, … .
Again, I hope I am wrong for the team’s sake, but I do not think I am. L
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
Nelson also has lost over 1000 games.
To be fair, he did win COY three times (1983, 1985, and 1992) and was named one of the Ten Greatest Coaches in 1997.
Nate gets a nod from me as long as his team continues to make forward progress.
by MiledAnimal on Sep 10, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
man i would bump d'antoni up into that top 5. sloan has alienated allot of players. so down 1 for him and adelemen.
and i think ur wrong about phil jackson. some of his best coaching jobs have been without good teams. the scottie pippen bulls and the smushparker/kwame to 8th seed in a very very very tough western conference.
popavich has done all his magic around one player and plans to retire when that said player does. not saying he is bad (i just think hes number 2 because of this). Phil has done his stuff successfully with 5 different core teams (mj/pippen, pippen/whomever, shaq/kobe, kobe/smushparker(lol), kobe/pao) i mean you can’t win without good players so i dont get what you are saying.
sounds to me that the reason for your current positioning of these two players is you dont like that phil is smug and popavich is publicly humble. two things that have nothing to do with being a good coach and two things that only matter if you are a team that consistently loses to these two coaches. one is a soar winner and the other isn’t. so whats the big deal?
You really think that, Dave?
Deep down inside, in your moments all alone, when no one is looking, and you don’t have to pretend not to be a homer? You really think that? Or do you really, deep down, expect this team to be much better than last year?
Reasons for expecting significant improvement, not all of which will happen (but some of them almost certainly will):
1. Greg Oden taking a big step forward in health, conditioning, and athleticism, due to having a full two years recovery from microfracture.
2. Greg Oden being able to stay on the court longer due to increased mobility and learning to foul less often.
3. Greg Oden becoming an offensive threat after working with Bayno over the summer.
4. Andre Miller taking all of Sergio’s minutes and at least some of Blake’s.
5. Improvement from Nic Batum, especially offensively.
6. Probability that we have the post-all-star break LMA for the whole season, instead of the last third of the season.
7. Improvement from Rudy now that he’s had his season of adjustment to living in a foreign country, and playing in a different league at a higher level.
8. Possibility that the presence of Andre pushes Blake, in a contract year, to perform even better.
9. Possibility that the presence of Andre makes Joel somewhat more effective on offense.
10. Possibility that Andre takes enough pressure off of Brandon that Brandon becomes even better.
11. Possibility that Martell returns and provides a positive contribution.
12. Possibility that Travis spending a summer working out, for once, pays off significant dividends in his game.
Will all of those things happen? Undoubtedly not. Will half of them? Who knows?
But enough of those things have a strong enough likelihood of happening that, on balance, the probability is very high that this team wins at least five more games than last year.
There is not a single player on our roster who should be worse than last year. None of them are past their prime, where you expect their games to decline, except for Andre — and Andre in decline is a lot better than Sergio was last year.
For us to be no better than last year, we would have to either have none of those potential improvements come to pass, or we would have to have enough declining performance to counterbalance any improvements. The chances of improvements are much, much higher than the chances of declines. This is still a young and improving team, with the only obvious roster weakness being that our backup PF is a tweener, but a pretty productive player for a tweener.
Every other team in the league has bigger roster weaknesses than we do. The best teams are able to compensate for their weaknesses by putting superstars on the court, but we can pretty well compensate for ours, too.
This is a 60 win team, probably better.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
by jscot on Sep 9, 2009 12:59 AM PDT reply actions 9 recs
Agreed!
While I was reading Dave’s article I could not help thinking, "Why is he being so negative when the season has not even started yet?"
This is a young team that is growing, what they were last year is not what they are going to be this upcoming season. The Portland Trail Blazers should clearly be better based on age and experience, let alone picking up Andre Miller and getting Martel back.
It is a no brainer! This team is going to play better basketball this year! They are going to be a contender THIS YEAR. We as Blazer fans have a lot to look forward to! And I do not care what the rest of the league does. We will be better. We are moving forward.
Some of the other contenders may have gotten better for this upcoming season, but they have to prove it as well. And best of all, our window is just really beginning to open. It is the other teams that should be doing the sweating, NOT US! I can feel the arthritis settling into Kobe’s knees as I write. Not to mention the arthritic conditions afflicting Timmy, Shack, Vince, and Jason.
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
My gosh, jscot!
What an analysis. This is why I come to Blazer’s Edge .. to have a serious back-and-forth among friends on the same side.
one thing i would add
is the experience the players got playing in the post season. yah we lost, but that could be a little motivation. I hate to use Kobe as an analogy but just like Kobe was on a mission last season after losing in the finals, i see Roy being on a mission this season.
I agree those are all possibilities.
1), 2), 3) Oden improving offensively and staying on the court for 26-28 minutes is very likely.
4) Andre taking all Sertio’s minutes and some of Blake’s minutes is certain, but there will be some adjustment in style for the whole team. There will also be a significant adjustment for Andre and Roy to play together, and in particular sorting out who handles the ball, etc. when things aren’t going well and at the end of games. I think this may cost us a couple games early.
5) Nic will definitely improve offensively.
6) I’d bet on some improvement from LMA but not major.
7) I think Rudy will improve but exactly how is a big unknown – defense highly likely, ability to make his own shot (less likely).
8) I suspect Blake had a career year last year and I’d be thrilled if he can just duplicate it (per minute for less minutes this year).
9) Slight improvement for Joel because of Andre but not more than 2-3 points a game better.
10) I don’t think Andre will help Brandon much, if any. In fact, I think Andre (vs Blake) will hurt Brandon at first and hopeful that evens out by the end of the year. Blake spreads the floor better for Brandon and Brandon isn’t a catch and shoot guy. Even if he says he will work on it, it’s a big change for him.
11) Martell may help on offense, but he would hurt on defense compared to Batum.
12) Travis gets traded or he will end up hurting more than helping. He won’t be happy with his role and lessor minutes in his contract year, and I think that will encourage him to launch more bad shots.
So I think overall we improve by 4-5 wins, but don’t get to 60 because of adjustments to playing with Andre. If we don’t trade Travis, I think we could fall back to 54 wins or less because of Travis distractions, and no backup PF/C when LMA, GO, or Oden inevitably get hurt and miss several weeks.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2009 2:58 AM PDT up reply actions
i agree on some parts
but i disagree that andre will hurt the team at all, especially roy, roy is extremely talented and will do just fine with a few catch and shoot. i doubt rudy improves much on defense but i bet he becomes more consistent offensively, and maybe is aloud to do more than shoot threes all game. i highly doubt that outlaw starts chucking the ball just because he is in contract year, and the blazers will when more games than last season even with him being on the team. i dont see extra losses just because of your disaproval of one player. and honestly, with miller coming off the bench, and there being a second offensive initiator, i would bet that outlaw plays better, because he wont have to be that go to guy coming off the bench when the offense is stalled. Outlaw will no longer be the third option, miller will. Oulaw may be a defensive liability but he will also make other back up power forwards defensive liabilities when they are guarding him.
Do you think Outlaw goes from 28 minutes per game to
11-12 minutes a game in his contract year, remains happy about that all year, and doesn’t take shots at a faster pace because of his limited minutes?
Or do you think he still gets 28 minutes? If so, how many minutes does Webster get, which then has to come out of Nic’s or Rudy’s minutes from last year?
I’m assuming we will have injuries to at least one of our key bigs. If LMA goes out for a few weeks Outlaw has to start at PF and play 24-36 minutes, while Howard backs him up. Or if GO or Joel goes out for a few weeks with injury, Outlaw has to play 24-36 minutes at backup PF while LMA has to play backup center. I figure that would cost us 3-4 games if we don’t trade Outlaw for a quality backup PF/C.
Do you figure there’s no adjustment time for Roy and Miller to play together? That’s possible, but I doubt it. I expect the whole team, including Nate, will have to adjust to Miller’s skills and style, which are very different from Blake or Sergio. But as I said, even if that costs us a few games early, I expect it to even out over the year.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2009 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions
i think
that his minutes go down a bit but not much. i think martell is the odd man out until proven other wise. aldridge has proven that he not prone to injury, and if he does get injured, there are still options, twin towers, testing out DC, howard or swift if they get signed can play minutes. i dont think outlaw could be much worse than frye.. and miller needs to learn the blazers system not vise versa. the blazers dont change the way they play based on one new person. if anything it expands on what they can already do. miller is a veteran who has played with several teams so i think he can handle playing with a new team.
what the hell is this for?
Miller is not going to play Steve Blake's role as a PG.
That would be a disaster. He can’t shoot the 3-pt shot at all (21% career). Miller is a completely different PG, virtually the opposite of Blake. He will not spot up in the corner and spread the floor for Roy. He will post up (which Blake will never do) and score or pass out. He will throw lob passes to the big guys and run P&R’s. Unlike Blake he wants the ball in his hands. He likes to run. He is virtually everything that Blake isn’t. The team will have to adapt to Miller, not the other way around. This is a good thing, but I don’t think it will be a seamless or instant transition.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2009 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions
miller plays like roy does
to some extent.. basically its going to be like having another player that plays like roy on the floor, and i see blake playing with starting unit, so that doesnt change to much for them. its just going to add another player that can penetrate.. and run pick and rolls but its not like the team is getting a new coach and running a completely different system
what the hell is this for?
Miller and Roy together reminds me of Roy's all star games
Roy played off of CP3 who obviously handled the ball more than Roy, yet Roy was still highly productive though very understated in his all-star performances.
Now Miller is a savy vet and has played with other star wings (Iguodala and Carmelo). I don’t see Miller taking over the spotlight from Roy rather setting him up so he has to initiate less of the offense. Miller knows Roy is the Man of this team. We have two very different yet effective and efficient players that can both play alongside Roy at PG. That will make our offense even more efficient as the defense will change with each PG keeping team from establishing a comfort zone in defense. We will see far fewer fourth quarter double teams on Roy at the 3pt line because Miller can and will make them pay as an outlet to break the pressure. We didn’t have a second option last year to handle the ball in crunch time to set up the plays.
The biggest potential pitfall out side of an injury is Trout’s role being minimized due to Webster’s return. However, I believe KP will deal him quickly if we ever get a remote bit of discontent brewing in the locker room. This team is poised to make a solid splash this season by winning against good team on the road – the last of the regular season hurdles to climb for the squad. They already beat good teams consistently at home and bad teams at home and the road. It shouldn’t matter as much if opponents are on a back-to back this year as it did last year because of the extra year of maturity.
RT: i dont think outlaw could be much worse than frye
If you’re trying to reassure me, it’s not working
KP needs to add a better backup PF/C than Channing, and not hope that “nothing goes wrong” with LMA/Greg/Joel between October and May
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
and why are you assuming injuries?
be optimistic!!! quit assuming the worst will happen. the blazers should start the season with what they have, and if there is problems they go from there. not try to fix problems that may or may not be there.
what the hell is this for?
Yeah, sure. Joel and GO have hardly ever been injured in their careers.
In Joel’s career he has only played in 66% of the games. He missed 1 of every 3 games due to injury. Oden has played in 37% of his games. Last year he missed 21 of the 82 games. LMA has done much better, but he has still missed 26 games in 3 years. It would incompetent for a GM to enter the season assuming no injuries to these guys.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2009 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions
i never said that
greg or pryzy have never gotten injured..last season joel barely missed any games if any.. lamarcas only missed like a couple last season… and oden had an entire off season that he was able to get back in to shape which will help keep him from getting injured. im not saying that injuries wont happent. what i am saying is that if injuries happen the blazers have enough people to cover it. any team that suffers injuries to its players are going to have a little set back.
what the hell is this for?
this is what i assume
KP is waiting for the perfect deal.. he is not going to trade outlaw or blake or bayless just to trade them..if the perfect person for this team comes up, i am all for trading.. but who is to say that durring that time, batum doesnt have further shoulder problems, or martell is extremely rusty, it would be smart on KP’s part to start the season and see how these situations play out. Maybe Outlaws off season work paid off and he is better than previous seasons, maybe he out works one of the other guys, so many possibilities that waiting might be the smartest option.
what the hell is this for?
I'm willing to wait until Feb
But if everyone’s healthy and the SF logjam intensifies the “consolidation deal” may need to be made sooner. KP needs to play his cards wisely, if he waits until sparks fly re: “not enough minutes” he could lose his trade leverage
(ref: Sergio, last fall)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I don't like mid-season trades for the same reason KP doesn't.
It disrupts the team in the latter half of the season when they should be preparing for the playoffs. But Travis is going to walk after the playoffs even if we don’t trade him (no way we are going to give him a big salary increase to play behind Batum and LMA, and some other team that wants scoring will). So ideally trade him early, but it may be hard to find a suitable deal until near the trading deadline. I hope not. I hope KP already has something worked out and is just waiting for our cap space to open up again when the season starts.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions
me, too
the sooner the better, but KP may want to wait and see if his other wings are healthy and producing before pulling the trigger
and if he waits too long and just lets Outlaw walk away, I will roast him
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I could foresee a trade with MInny
Minny has lots of PGs and big men but a real hole at the wing slots. Trout would be perfect for Rubio’s rights, as long as we got a backup 4 as the filler.
They'd have to be at least a little crazy to do that trade.
We’d have to give them something else at least. I bet they’d ask for Batum or Rudy. (Everyone asks for Batum or Rudy.)
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Until we have a third string center, that's a very bad sign
No center can play 48 minutes.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
RT: why are you assuming injuries?
Do you take off on a long road trip without a spare tire in your trunk?
(Howard and Swift are donuts, I’m talking about a real spare with some tread remaining)
there are always going to be some bumps along the way, count on it. Roster depth is a good thing, but it needs to spead evenly over all 5 positions. Who’s the #3 center? LMA? Then, who’s the #2 PF? Outlaw?
That’s not enough tread for off-roading
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
by two4larue on Sep 9, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like the metaphor, rec for that.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
That's true, Miller might be a wash over the year (improving chemistry over the year)
So by the playoffs he’ll be a large net positive.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
Mostly agree, but . . .
the comparison of Webster’s defense with Batum is misplaced. I see Webster mostly taking Outlaw’s minutes at SF so the more apt defensive comparison is Webster-Outlaw. If Martell’s foot is indeed fully healed, as reported, he should be a slight defensive upgrade over Travis.
Webster’s healthy return does make Outlaw the odd man out and it seems pretty clear that the Blazers are trying to shore up the PF position with the view of making him expendable in that backup role as well. I don’t see him being a distraction for long because I don’t think he’ll be with the team for long. He might even be traded before the regular season begins.
And that’s the truth.
It's a question of who gets Outlaw's minutes at SF.
If Batum gets more minutes than last year then our defense is improved. If Webster gets all of Outlaw’s SF minutes, then the offense may benefit because I think Martell will pass better and take the ball to the hoop more than Outlaw, but the defense suffers compared to Batum getting those minutes. I suspect early in the year the minutes will be divided about evenly between Batum and Webster, with both getting about 18-19 minutes. Rudy will get about 10-12 minutes at SF(on offense – Roy SF on defense) in the 3-guard lineup. Then by December I suspect Batum and Webster will start splitting those minutes more like 24/12.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2009 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions
^^ I'm not predicting whether Batum or Webster gets the 24 minutes,
just that one of them will probably outplay the other enough to get a larger share of the available SF minutes by the end of Dec.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
this morning Gavin Dawson was saying
that he’s glad that Quick is now on the Game, because Jason always brings “the Truth” about the Blazers to the fans
(I thought a few folks here would get a kick out of hearing that…)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree with your points and you probably missed some
Like maybe Brandon becoming a better mid-range shooter, team synergy improving as they’ve played together one more year, etc.
I also agree that the team is 5 wins better. My only quibble is fans assuming that the team didn’t over achieve in the regular season last year. It’s possible that last year’s team, if they could replay it over and over like a video game, would prove to have been a 49 – 52 win team, in which case adding 5 wins wouldn’t get them to 60.
In other words they may play 5 wins better ball this season and still only win 54 games.
The point differential
would have predicted 56 wins. So it is possible they underachieved. If you play those Orlando games over like a video game, we win both of them at least 8 out 10 times. Likewise, we sweep the Clips 8 of 10 times. But then, we’d lose that Houston game 9 of 10 times.
We can’t really assume anything, it’s all probabilities at this point. The most likely probability is that the wins were a pretty accurate reflection of the capability of the team to overcome injuries, opponents, and the rigors of an 82 game season.
You are right that I probably missed some, and the two you mentioned are valid. We didn’t even talk about the (unlikely) possibility that Bayless makes a huge progression and surpasses Blake on the depth chart. Not very likely, but if it happens, it would strengthen us.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
One more reason for improvement
Replacing Frye with whatever replaces him is going to be worth a couple of games.
by PoliSam on Sep 9, 2009 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
but not if that guy is
Juwan Howard or Stromile “not so” Swift
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
At the moment we arguably got worse at that position
Channing isn’t the tough player people called for last year, but he is way more skilled than a rookie Dante, a rookie Pendergraph who now is out for much of the year, and a better rebounder and post-up interior defender than Travis.
There's Gotta Be More To Life
by Norsktroll on Sep 9, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's my take too
Frye was frustrating, but not more than an unproven rookie or a tweener who isn’t a strong rebounder.
Mo—
It is very important I agree
If it isn’t adressed by the trade deadline I will be shocked & disappointed.
He did it! Yes he did!
We had the same feelins regarding Batum last summer
he was just some unproven rookie, but turned into a very productive player in limited stints. The extra hustle of Dante on Pendegraph might make us forget about the Buffet of goodness and overshadow Trout, We just don’t know.
RT: the only obvious roster weakness being that our backup PF is a tweener
I would add that an injury to LMA/Joel/Greg will magnifiy this weakness during the regular season, and foul trouble to these players will magnify it during big games and especially the post-season
the backup 4-5 is the ‘09-10 Blazer’s Achille’s heel. Here’s hoping KP addresses it, before Paris throws the proverbial javelin
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Granting that everything you say may well be true
We had that same Achilles’ heel last year, plus another one at PG, plus a raw rookie who was non-existent on offense for the first half of the year starting at SF, plus one of our two centers was out of condition and struggling with microfracture, plus, plus, plus.
We had about 6 Achilles’ heels last year, and this year we have one. And not one player should be expected to be significantly worse this year. Very strong probability that we are much better, and have a non-negligible increase in wins.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
but why have even one
when it isn’t necessary?
I don’t want much, just everything. No chinks in the armor, heading into the season. You can’t predict when injuries will occur, but it only makes sense to be at least 2 deep at every position (with quality reserves…not tweeners, rooks, has-beens or never-weres)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That depends on if it is necessary
Since all we have are rumors of alleged trades, we don’t know what deals KP has tried to do, who he could have acquired, and what it would have cost to acquire him.
We know KP and Nate are both aware of the weakness. The guys KP is bringing to training camp is revealing — the current roster still has a hole. Since it is doubtful either of those guys is really going to be an answer, and since we know he sees that hole, I think we can safely assume that he is looking for a real solution.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
Blah blah blah blah blah... Go Blazers
:)
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Sep 9, 2009 3:06 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
The Blazers will the Championship, end of story
they have so much talent, I just can’t see them not winning.
I just hope they win it on the road. those new white rip city jerseys look awful.
I can’t wait for the season to start
by hugetrailblazerfan on Sep 9, 2009 4:01 AM PDT reply actions
I am not sure he forgot.
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
good article
The key to the Blazers is for their bread and butter players to get better. A big step up for Oden, Batum, and/or Webster will all help the team immensely.
The main virtue of having a boatload of players is that even if they had some major injuries they probably will still have a 50+ win regular season.
If the whole team stays healthy, their depth will probably be a mild negative rather than positive. Too many NBA-caliber players will be spending the whole season on the bench.
“Replacing Frye with whatever replaces him is going to be worth a couple of games.”
I think “whatever” is probably Dante Cunningham. And I agree.
according to the Blazer coaches/scouts, Dante can't guard most NBA PFs
and Frye occasionally was asked to defend
centers
they’re both “forwards” but one is an apple and the other is an orange
I like Cunningham, but expecting him to “replace” Frye (on defense) is optimistic. On offense, their games are very similar
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Dante can guard other guys coming off the bench, he just can’t check Duncan/Garnett/Nowitzki etc.
"If the Lakers are Hollywood, then we are South Central." - Clipper fan.
same with Travis
and to win a playoff series, you will need more than one forward who can check these elite players
I’m still waiting for an “upgrade” to Frye. Dante Cunningham wasn’t it
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yeah, Dante Cunningham is a 4/3 and Channing Frye is a 4/5.
At best, Cunningham could mirror Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s production last season as a rookie defender; however, that still means he’ll be unable to guard bigger, stronger power forwards and all true centers.
As it is, Cunningham is just fine right now as a third-string power forward for depth. That’s it, though.
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
Not pessimistic
Realistic self evaluation is essential. Not necessarily expected of most fans, but essential.
To borrow a medieval analogy, Me thinks when one is preparing for battle it is as important to know where the chinks in your own armor are, as it is to know where the chinks in your opponents armor might be.
This could be a great season for The Blazers, but it’s the first where this team won’t catch much of a break on any level. We aren’t going to suprise people, we will be expected to win on most nights, and even though we still are a very young team, that excuse just wont be accepted as readily as in the past. We’ve become a playoff team and with that all the expectations of a playoff team are attached.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
I don't think we surprised people last year
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
Pessimistic?
I can see how we may have surprised some people early in the year last year when we came out of the blocks fast despite that very tough early schedule. I think the team surprised itself a little bit.
After that I would say the surprises got considerably tougher to come by. And down the stretch of the season when we got stronger, and closed it out on a hot streak, I don’t think any of those playoff contenders we thrashed could say they were surprised.
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
Everyone knew we would be dangerous last year
I’m not talking about the fans or East Coast pundits, I’m talking about opponents. Nobody circled Portland on their calendar and said, “Easy win”. They all knew they were going to have to bring it if they were going to beat us.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
I agree!
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
Surprise, surprise, surprise...
Despite the attention The Blazers garnered, I still think last season we surpised some people. As has been mentioned, we exceeded expectation with our record especially at the start of the season. I think everyone including The Blazers themselves were pleasantly suprised.
Up until last season we were a lottery team, last season saw our return to playoff contention.
We can debate forever whether you want to believe we surprised people last season or not….it actually doesn’t matter. My point is that we have arrived as a playoff team in relationship to last season. I think we are capable of a lot more this season, but I also think everything will be more difficult. Our motto is no longer “Rise with Us”.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
I think that having Brandon
equals more than just an edge at the shooting guard position. He’s the big game changer here. I think we’ll have a very good record again in games decided by 3 points or less, and that’s good for a number of wins. I remember when the teams since ‘03 and before Brandon happened to be in a close game down the stretch (when we weren’t getting blown out, I mean) when you just KNEW the other team (and not just the Spurs and Lakers and other contenders, but almost EVERY other team) would find away to put us away. I really don’t think there’s a team in the west other than the Fakers that has a player like this.
And as for the depth issue I think that injuries happen as often (or almost as often) at the beginning of the season as they do down the stretch. Maybe our top 7 or 8 guys don’t look super impressive against other teams top 7 or 8 but with one or two injuries, now you’re using players 9 and 10 also. And yes we have question marks at the small forward spot, but at least we have a COUPLE of question marks there. We’re rolling dice at the spot a little bit, but at least were roll 2 (or 3 if you count Travis) dice. Better odds.
Familiarity will add 3 wins alone!
The longer the core of a team plays together, year in and year out, the better it becomes as a unit. That is until it reaches its prime. Last year was the very first year for Greg, Nic, and Rudy playing with Joel, Brandon, Lamarcus, Travis, Steve, etc. This year we should see improvement over last only because this squad will be more familiar with one another. Yes, Andre is a new addition and bringing Martell back into the fold is a new wrinkle, but in general we have a LARGE group of players coming back for its second year together. In my book, that alone is worth 3 additional wins.
By the way, I suspect that Canzano took over Dave’s keyboard last night!
There aren't enough three-word-paragraphs in Dave's post
to make me suspect Canzano took over his keyboard.
Also, there weren’t any incomplete sentences beginning with the word “also”.
by Montavilla Steve on Sep 9, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
normally i agree
but i really have to disagree on this.
Tier 1: Lakers
Tier 2: Blazers/Spurs
Tier 3: Denver, Mavs, Jazz, new Orleans
The assumption is that the blazers continue to play as a team. I don’t see this as an issue.
There seem to be a lot of people that really want to be cautious on this but my gut is telling me that these blazers are going to blow people away. I don’t know if hte caution is based on fear because it’s too good to be true, fear because of past let downs, or just fear that somethings will go amazingly wrong because things have been going so right.
The blazers should NOT have won 54 games. They were young. They were inexperienced. Their star players have only been around a couple of years. This was a 41 win team and before that about a 30ish win team and before that…
This team is talented. This team has smart players and coaches that despite all the odds and past records and injuries have pulled out wins and done it consistently with consistent improvement.
Still, there are people that doubt. There are people that hold back. This team isn’t over achieving. This team is meeting it’s potential. The over achievement would only be that people dont’ expect young teams to do that.
Dave, on this one I need to disagree. I believe this team is far better than you think. I do agree that it’s all based on team work. As long as the team can keep it’s chemistry, work ethic, and ability to play as a team, I think this team will be almost unstoppable. if Oden can actually play ball, I believe this team IS unstoppable.
Putting the blazers in the same category as denver? That doesn’t work for me. did you not see the last game where the Blazers put their foot down on the nuggets ore the games before that or the margin of victory? Those things aren’t accidental. Those things are a team finally figuring out how to play together.
Anyway, here’s hoping your caution is wrong and I’m right.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
remember the playoffs
What really surprises me is how Bedgers are basing their optimism on the team’s 54 wins and the great stretch run in early April, without “balancing” that with the way they could only win 2 out of 6 playoff games, even though 3 of those games were at home
I read Dave’s paragraphs and didn’t get a “pessimistic” vibe, at all. Until the team wins a playoff series, I don’t expect any of their regular season “blowouts” to mean anything more than 1 win out of 82. I’d much rather have a 4 “one point victories” in a post-season series
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
You are right
and that’s why I am not pushing a whole lot of optimism about the playoffs. If we get some lucky breaks (like everyone staying healthy while opponents don’t, etc), we could win it all. But we would have to be lucky.
My optimism is based on expectations of improving on last season’s success in the regular season. I would not bet on us going past the second round, even if we get a #1 seed.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
If we can get the #2 seed, it's probably because GO improved very significantly,
and Miller fit well. If that is true, I’d bet we can get to the WCF. However, I’d wager a lot more on getting to the WCF if San Antonio decides to tank enough regular season games to drop to a 4th seed and not a 3rd seed.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 9, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
right
Portland’s best chance is for L*A and SA to meet in round 2 and beat the snot out of each other, then the Blazers can pick up the pieces in the conference finals
this is assuming all 3 teams are at full strength in May
I’ll probably be satisfied with a tough 2nd round loss to either the L*kers or the Spurs, as long as KP has hardened the roster beforehand and the kids got legtimately “beat” without any help from the zebras
(I realize that’s a lot to ask for…)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
That is probably Portland's best chance
but it’s not their only chance. The Blazers will be a very solid team come playoff time in 2010. I think no one will want o face us any more than they’ll want to face the L@kers or the Spurs if healthy, The big lesson last year was losing game 1 and homecourt advantage. I think the team will take that lesson to heart and be capable of beating any team in the playoffs. Sure they might lose but every game will be competitive, unlike NOH or Utah last year.
Summed up my playoff expectations nicely.
So I’m seconding this.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I'm not betting on that
I’m pretty much expecting we get either LA or SA in round two — and if that happens, we might lose even if we play very well.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
"What do the Blazers have compared to the rest of the league?"
Out of your 6 bulleted points, I disagree with 2. For #2, you describe Andre Miller as “competent,” but I’d say that’s an understatement. I forget the exact stat, but the guy is one of the all-time assist leaders in NBA history, and he’s not over the hill yet by any means. He totally dismantled Steve Blake and every other Blazer guard who tried to check him last season in the Rose Garden. Miller/Blake is a serious upgrade over last season’s Blake/Bayless combo.
For #6, you say depth is overrated. In the post-season, yes. But during the regular season it’s huge, mainly because it offsets the injury factor—ALWAYS huge in an 82-game season.
The ‘09-’10 Blazers have a better starting point guard. They have more depth. And they’re older & more experienced (after having the youngest rotation in the NBA last season). Therefore, injuries being roughly equal, I’d expect them to exceed last season’s total of 54 wins. 60 wins is NOT an unreasonable expectation for this team.
Not that a repeat of the 54 win total would really be a disappointment. This season, success or failure will be measured by whether the Blazers advance in the playoffs.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
And there is another reason for promoting a realistic
evaluation vs. unfettered optimism. I’ve noticed that many of those subscribing to overboard optimism are often the first to start trashing the team when things aren’t going right (like losing a game or two to a lower-rung team).
I appreciate Dave attempting to subdue unbridled homerism somewhat (it’s a dirty job but someone has to do it), and I don’t see it as being negative in the least. I’d describe his take as cautiously optimistic.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
Generally I agree
but this time around despite a desire to be reserved and cautious, I’m hopeful dave will be very very wrong. I honestly feel if EVERYTHING goes right, this team is a 72 plus win team and finals champions. If half of things go right then we’re a 62 win team, and if things go horribly wrong we’re a 52 win team.
Time will tell.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
Even if everything goes right
I think we’re a year or two away from making a run at 70.
And you really have to have EVERYTHING go right.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
Two years from now
if Greg Oden plays like the HOF center he was hyped to be, Brandon continues to play like a superstar, LMA plays like an all-star, and players like Nic fill out the holes in their games, you have a team that could make a run at 70.
All of those things are entirely possible.
But you would have to have everything go right, including staying healthy all year.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
I think it's a really, really, really inclusive kind of everything.
Batum becomes an All-Star, etc.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I don't see any team in the west winning 70
I do see the Rose Garden being a house of horrors for other teams,the place is gonna be rockin. 2-3 more wins is possible. With the years experience & the addition of Dre & Martell we should challenge for the top seed. S.A. will coast some in an attempt to stay healthy and Utah will be the other team in the top 4. The second round is going to be tough but WCF’s is a definite possibility.If everything goes perfect Finals. I don,t see a title this year but I hope I’m wrong. It’s gonna be fun regardless.
He did it! Yes he did!
I concur!
Just because someone doesn’t stand on the rooftop and yell out that the blazers are going to win the championship this year doesn’t mean that they are being negative. Some fans are simply so pumped up on fast food and adrenaline that the combination seems to create a pious effect against the “non’believers”. I agree that the elimination of Channing Frye was addition by subtraction, and that our point guard spots will be deeper this year. Maybe we can get another couple games over last year, but counting victories before they are earned is for losers.
Win totals are (nearly) meaningless!
I know we use win totals as a way of quickly communicating regular season success. 50 wins generally means you are a playoff team, 60 wins suggests you are in the top tier of NBA teams and 70 wins means you are a FORCE in the league. But now that the Blazers are a solid playoff team I would argue that win totals are no longer the most relevant measure of Blazer success.
I understand that you must win games to make the playoffs, and I understand that you must win more than your opposition to gain home court advantage. However, the only way I will measure the success of our team over the next several years will be in number of playoff series victories.
So far this team has achieved ZERO series victories. Next season, I assume we all would agree that ZERO would be a disappointment. In your opinion, how many playoff series’ must the Blazers win to be a success next season? One? Two? Three? All FOUR??!
I say three victories would be a success. Zero would be a disaster. One or two would be disappointing. Not a disaster, but disappointing. What do you think?
How did we start talking about 70 wins?
Only one team has EVER won 70 games. Maybe we can think about winning a playoff series before we start becoming the greatest of all time.
BTW, we’re also undervaluing 50 wins. Typically, anything above .500 was probably enough to get into the playoffs, and 50 wins was a very strong team. The West is just so competitive that we’re thinking of 50 as routine. Anytime we can improve on 54, that will be a very good season. 60 will be elite. We might get there.
I think it is the balancing point position opposite the stance that Dave took. Somewhere in the middle is probably more appropriate.
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
Zero is failure. One is meeting expectations. Two is success, any more is wild crazy success.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
The factor that everyone is overlooking: European players almost always experience a jump in production between their first and second years.
The argument goes along the lines of “Rudy’s 24, he’s already the player he will be in the NBA.”
Was Manu done growing at 25? Did Scola plateau after his very solid rookie season? No, they improve. The international to NBA jump is very rough. Rudy will improve.
That’s not even considering Nicolas. A European sophomore who happens to be twenty years old? He has a chance to improve substantially this season. Not even accounting for his European status, Pelton’s similarity scores were quite lofty for Nico.
Rudy/Nic improvement alone is worth a few wins.
"If the Lakers are Hollywood, then we are South Central." - Clipper fan.
Measured analysis has it's place...
but don’t tell these folks.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
Weren't these the same rabid fans that were screaming,"Bring on the Lakers?"
Just before their collective asses were handed to them by the Houston Rockets in the worst playoff home loss in team history? I get the euphoria. I’ve been a long suffering blazer fan as well. However I always believe it’s dangerous to look past opponents, and in the case of this article, look past an entire season and make predictions based on instincts. I believe that in some cases, the better the team gets the more intolerable some fans become.
Color me intolerable
Although instead of looking past the season i’m just looking forward to it! Is it november yet?
He did it! Yes he did!
Yeah, but...
isn’t it the job of the team to not look past opponents? The fan’s job is to go nuts.
A throng of rabid fans screaming, “Bring on a first round defeat and a valuable learning experience!!!” just isn’t very exciting.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
western conf
“Putting the blazers in the same category as denver? That doesn’t work for me. did you not see the last game where the Blazers put their foot down on the nuggets ore the games before that or the margin of victory?”
But the Blazers pulverized the L*kers at home as well, but nobody is saying the Blazers are better than the L*kers.
I actually agree that the Blazers are probably in a higher tier than the Nuggets, I just don’t think the last game of last year’s regular season is a good supporting argument.
hey
Hey, let’s not to be so tough on those predicting 70 wins, at least they’re not predicting 90 wins in the regular season! (he he)
What if we include the pre-season and the playoffs? I say, "Go for 90!"
There is more to an athlete than how fast they can run, they also better be able to see what they are doing and know why they are doing it.
“I honestly feel if EVERYTHING goes right, this team is a 72 plus win team and finals champions. If half of things go right then we’re a 62 win team, and if things go horribly wrong we’re a 52 win team.”
I’d put it more like:
Everything goes right: 60 wins
Half things go right: 55 wins
Things go horribly: 50 wins
What's your defition of "horribly" here?
If Greg Oden and Brandon Roy suffer season-ending injuries — which, unlike the 70-win junk that some people are yapping about for whatever asinine reason, isn’t impossible — then the Portland Trail Blazers will be a lottery team.
Now, if Roy is out for a long stretch due to some freak accident, then that’s nobody’s fault whatsoever. On the other hand, though, If Oden — or even Joel Przybilla — is injured for a substantial amount of games and the team still hasn’t solidified its frontline depth, then Kevin Prtichard should once again be blasted for his lack of understanding the importance of balanced roster construction.
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
I think the difference between 'everything goes right' and 'things go horribly' should be more than a 10 game gap.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I hope someday we get to that level!
To put us at 70 now is out of left field. I have to hope your right & I’m wrong but WOW 72
He did it! Yes he did!
One game at a time
I know it’s the most used cliche in the NBA, but we really do have to take one game at a time. I think we did a good job of this last year. Some of the older teams maybe take a while to get warmed up into the season, or have a lull somewhere in the middle. We have to really concetrate on winning every game. Don’t let the Clippers, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, ect. beat us. Really try and get the home court advantage in the playoffs. Our depth might help during the regular season, get us through an injury or two.
All that being said, once we get to the playoffs, some matchups will obviously be better than others. I didn’t want to see Houston last year. This year if the Spurs are healthy come playoff time, I don’t want to see them as much as most of the other Western teams. Hopefully we’ll make it to the Western Confrence finals, and take our best shot at whoever waits. Hey if we have home court in that series, or any series for that matter, I give us a good shot.
again I maintain that number of wins is irrelevant
Apparently everyone disagrees because that’s all that is being used as a barometer.
# of wins is irrelevant,
If your a team like the Spurs or L@kers. A team like Portland needs every boost of confidence & home court is essential. I think we will be better on the road this year but if we want to advance in the playoffs we do need a high seed.
He did it! Yes he did!
My predictions on the West standings
1) L@kers
2) Mavericks
3) Blazers
4) Spurs
5) Nuggets
6) Hornets
7) Jazz
8) The Grizzlies, Suns and Thunder will be the ones fighting over the 8th seed, but I think the Grizzlies will prevail due to Me, Myself and Iverson.
Yeah, if you want a bunch of aging veterans making one last run, the Spurs are a much better choice than the Mavs.
Also, I think Houston will be at the playoff-making fringe.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
I don't think Houston will be anywhere near playoff contention this year
No Yao and no McGrady = tough times in Houston.
by Bib Fortuna on Sep 10, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
here is what i think
1. LA
2. Portland!!! (a bit optimistic but definitely doable)
3. San Antonio (they could even end as 4 just cause they like to take it easy at the end of the year)
4. Dallas
5. Denver (even though they did nothing this off season
6. Utah (only if they resolve the Boozer dilemma)
7. NO (the center swap is going to do much for them)
8. ? (a lot of teams can fight for this spot)
what the hell is this for?
4
I think we’ll get 4-5 wins next year. with Nate being an awful coach, Brandon, Greg, Pryz, Webster, Batum and lamarcus most likely out for the season ( I’ve heard they’re injury prone) and Andre miller over the hill (he’s what? 54 years old now?) most likely we’ll end up having to go with a three man lineup of Cunningham Bayless and pendergraph (of course we’ll have to play 2-on-5 until December until Pendy is back) But who knows maybe I’ll be pleasantly surprised?
by moflow on Sep 9, 2009 11:02 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Carlos Boozer
Can anyone explain to me why the Jazz want to move Boozer? I thought he was one of the corner stones of that team. Is there any possibility that Portland could acquire him? Does he have problems off the court or is it just a big contract? Would he be happy backing up LMA and GO?
They think he is going to leave anyway so they want something back if he does
I don’t think the Blazers would want him. He’s still a starter and wouldn’t be happy playing backup.
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