Joe Freeman On Martell Webster
by Dave on Sep 30, 2009 11:13 PM PDT
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PrintJoe Freeman over at the Oregonian is tickling our homer bones again with another article on...what? It's like a funny bone, except for fans. Home-team rooters? OK, fine. I'll admit it's probably the worst phrase ever invented in the history of blogging. Can we just talk about Freeman's article now?
The subject of the pre-season prose this time is Martell Webster. As always, the article is more than worth a read. Martell reiterates his stance that Nicolas Batum may aim to start, but he (Martell) is about winning. I'm not suggesting you buy that old saw completely. Rather it hearkens to a debate Casey Holdahl and I had on the last podcast. We were making cases for small forward starting. He took Batum and I took Webster.
Granted, I don't believe Martell will come out of the gate with the starting role in hand. He's been off too long to be sure of. He's not had much practice with the current (grown up) incarnation of the Blazers. Batum almost certainly starts the season getting his name announced every night. But down the road I have a hunch that Martell is going to challenge for that role. I'd bet at some point he takes it.
This has nothing to do with a poor assessment of Batum. Of the two, Nicolas is the future of the position. Nicolas also has plenty of skills and enough talent to recommend him in the present. But that's just it. Batum has enough skills that he'd make a great flexible bench player. You can send him off the pines to guard anyone who's hot at any of the three small positions with the starters. You can form a running second unit including Fernandez, Batum, maybe Outlaw, probably with a little left over Andre Miller to push tempo and steady any jumpiness. Whichever center is in reserve you'll need more defense. If Rudy and Travis are out there you don't necessarily need more shooting, let alone if Blake plays out there too. Batum's a nice fit.
Webster, on the other hand, is a small forward who will guard the opposing small forward. Though he can sure dunk purty if nobody is in front of him he's not the agile, slasher type. Roy and Miller are though. What do they need? What does LaMarcus need to execute his mid-range game or Greg (assuming he's there) in the post or cutting low? They could use more outside shooting. Batum has range but not the kind of confidence in his marksmanship that Webster has. Nicolas shot 37% from the arc last year but most of those shots were astonishingly open. Webster shot better in his last active season while attempting twice as many threes, many of which were more difficult. Webster will keep opponents more honest than Nicolas will. His defense won't be the same which is a strong argument for Batum, especially with Nate McMillan preaching defense from the opening of training camp this year. But again, Batum's defense is usable anywhere, anytime, starting or not. Martell is going to be a better starter than reserve.
During the podcast Mr. Holdahl pulled the old, "If they're doing well why would they change?" argument on me. I must admit, it's convincing. Then again with the expectations on them, the league more ready for them, and the general tendency of things to slip the second time you try them I'd venture there's a better chance for the Blazers to have a disappointing first couple months this year (versus their expectations) than in years past. Heretofore if things just went pretty well everybody was satisfied. This year things will have to go incredibly well for anyone, including the team, to be happy. A handful of games above .500 in mid-December is going to generate questions this year when it would have generated celebration in years past. And those questions could well generate the kind of tinkering that would lead to Martell getting a try.
What say you? Is there any chance Martell enters the starting lineup for any reason besides injury this year? If so, why and/or what will it take? Feel free to share other impressions from Freeman's piece as well.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Its up in the air if you ask me.
It is really hard to say because we don’t even know who the other 2 starters are. I know Roy and LA will be there. But who will be running the point? I think Martel would be great paired with Oden and Miller. Spreading the floor for the big man and a great transition 3 point presence for Miller. I think with Blake you need more back court D and he has the shot that can spread the floor. I like Webster with Andre and Batun with Blake.
That's the argument I have made
I think he’s the better fit with who we know the starters are going to be.
http://www.blazerstrail.com
Webster weighs in on the Blazer's pursuit of Hedo, last July
from Freeman’s article
Webster said he fully embraced the Blazers’ summer pursuit of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, who was courted to play small forward.
“He’s a great player; I don’t blame them,” Webster said. “I’m still here. If (Turkoglu) were here, I would still be here, too. In this game, you have to make an effort to try and make your team as best as you can. And that’s what we tried to do. It’s a business.”
But didn’t the Turkoglu quest signal that the Blazers had doubts about Webster?
“Not even. (Turkoglu) would have to go out there and deal with me at the end of the day,” Webster said, chuckling. “If he’s here or if he’s not here, I still have to go out there and do what I’m supposed to do … be competitive, try to make him better, while at the same time try to make myself better. He’s a hell of a player and that would be more of a challenge for me. This is a business. If he would have been here, I love Hedo. He’s a great player. I kind of look up to him.”
Now that is one confident young man, who really understands how the business-side of the NBA works.
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
One more thing I noticed about Webster
Webster was one of the first to congratulate Batum as he came off the court last year. He seemed totally supportive and enthusiastic, even though you might expect the opposite.
Webster will make a good coach
in about 12-15 years…unless his goal is to be a GM, instead
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I hate to chime in in agreement, Dave,
but you put your finger on a key need for the first unit: outside shooting. Assuming that Miller replaces Blake, this need becomes greater. If Nic is to hold off Martel throughout the season, he needs to focus on bettering his three shooting. Like a laser.
And that’s the truth.
I like what Martell said during his media day interview about wanting to finish the game more than start it. I’d apply all of your arguments about how he could fit into the starting unit to his finishing the game with said unit. I think Nic’s defensive ability lends him to starting the game on the opposing team’s starting 3, particularly if Blake is the starting point.
My team went to the playoffs in my first year.
don't tell that to Rudy
or RFS1970?
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Martell is going to be a better starter than reserve.
This may have been true in the past, but I don’t think starting matters so much to Webster, now. According to Smith’s interview a few weeks back, Martell is focusing on finishing games. I think he’d be OK with Nic starting each half, as long as #23 gets the opportunity to stick in a dagger and send the other guys packing
Again, much depends on who wins the starting PG position. If it’s Blake, then Batum will likely be starting at the 3. If Andre gets the nod, then Martell might be a better fit.
No matter “who” winds up starting, all of these guys are eventually going to get into the lineup at the same time, regardless
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
NBA players are so rehearsed by agent and league,
I don’t think we learn anything about their frame of mind from such an interview. Besides, human nature is to manage expectations and mask disappointment in a competitive environment.
Don’t you think most guys would rather start? Who knows.
In any case, I agree that the PG decision is going have the most ripple effect. Because Blake are Miller are such different players.
Let's not kid ourselves: every player wants to start games.
- The arena is full, the crowd is excited. The lights dim, and a spotlight illuminates a circle on the floor. The announcer calls the names of the starters, who run into the spotlight to thunderous applause. Cameras broadcast close-ups of each player to a national or even international audience. It’s an honor that only the starters receive.
- With few exceptions, the starting five are the five best players on a team, and everyone knows it.
- There’s a cachet attached to being a starter. There is none attached to being a reserve, despite the fact that just being in the NBA at all means you are one of the top 400 or so basketball players in the world.
- Starters almost always play more minutes than reserves.
- Starters almost always make more money than reserves. They certainly have a stronger bargaining position during contract negotiations.
- Starters almost always get more and better endorsement deals.
I applaud the team-first lip service that everyone on the team is providing us, I doubt that there is even one player on the Blazers, or any other team, who does not long to be a starter. It’s a potential source of friction that the team will have to watch carefully.
by MiledAnimal on Oct 1, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
John Havlicek and Kevin McHale
say “pffft!”
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
There was a pretty clear precedent last year with successful teams
switching up starters. A little known fact is that a certain LA team started younger Walton almost twice as many games as Trevor Ariza last year. In fact, the last game Luke started was the beatdown we put on them in Portland. This despite winning 7 of 10 before that game.
So Ariza only started the last 20 games of the season and the playoffs. Seemed to work out pretty well for them.
Also, the Magic
switched it up with Pietrus and Lee midseason, so the idea that good teams always stick with the status quo definitely isn’t the case.
Argument makes sense.
Martell teamed with Miller to compensate for lack of 3 pt. shooting.
And Nicolas’ flexibility to provide defensive punch anytime and at either wing.
If you think, as I do, that Miller is bound to start eventually, then Dave’s assertion that Martell starts is logical.
And having watched Nicolas in Eurobasket, I don’t think he’s ready to be a force on the offensive end.
These lineup jugglings are the most intriguing thing about this preseason to me!
having watched Nicolas in Eurobasket, I don’t think he’s ready to be a force on the offensive end
I don’t think this matters, since Batum will (hypothetically) be playing in a lineup with Roy and LMA. Having a defensive-minded “role player” at the 3 might be “better” than inserting another scorer. (We saw this concept play out with Nate’s decision to keep bringing Travis in off the bench last year, after Martell went down)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I thought Travis played poortly in his starts and was better served as a scorer off the bench
So it might be that Travis was a bigger part of not starting than Nic taking the job.
Travis: "His length is unbelievable. He's long, it feels like he gets his go-go-gadget arm out there and gets the ball." Dante Cunningham
yep
Nate said something like “Travis isn’t comfortable starting with Roy/LMA, he doesn’t get into the flow of game on the offensive end” (etc) and McMillian went with Nic instead, and Batum worked out much better than anyone expected (especially those of us who saw #88 play in summer league…)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I watched Nicolas in Eurobasket,
and I feel he can be a force on the offensive end. He took over the games when he needed to. He did an outstanding job this summer.
Not being able to handle a hangover will lead to a level of maturity.
Wheels to Jason Quick
by Kampeska on Oct 1, 2009 4:45 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Nic has a bigger skill set with his ballhandling, passing, and ability to find open spaces on offense. Martell is strictly an outside shooter. Nic will hold on to his starting role and will eventually close out games as well.
Easiest skill to improve over time is outside shooting. My money is on Nic.
Defense is the key
If he can close the gap some on defensive performance, he’ll get more PT than Nic. If not, probably not.
As others have said, it partly depends on the Miller-Blake situation as to whether or not he starts. But as far as how much PT he gets compared to Nic, it probably will come down to his defense. Nic is going to provide more offense this year, so if Martell wants to take time from him, he has to provide good defense.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
not only that, but
Batum has to be able to shoot well enough to draw a defender “out” to guard him on the perimeter. As Dave noted, opponents left Nic virtually unguarded and dared him to shoot, last year. Whatever his 3pt shooting percentage may have been, it wasn’t enough to keep opposing wings from “cheating off him” to help double on Roy/LMA
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I expect marginal improvement from Nic in that area
Perhaps more than marginal.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
Batum averaged 19 minutes a game leaving plenty for Martell.
The mingling of Roy and Rudy into the mix with Outlaw means there are lots of choices. I am not sure Batum gets more PT this year. He dropped to 10.5 minutes per game in the playoffs.
So I question that Nic will provide more offense – he seemed to play well in the EuroBasket this year but I think he did not shoot well from 3 (and that is a short 3). He can hit the wide open shots – can he hit the catch and shoot and can he shoot off the dribble? Is he better than last year? I would think so if you mean more than last year rather than more than Martell.
But I do agree that defense may determine the starter.
Travis: "His length is unbelievable. He's long, it feels like he gets his go-go-gadget arm out there and gets the ball." Dante Cunningham
Yes, I mean more than last year
Nic’s offensive contribution will increase. His handle is better, and he will take it to the hoop a little more.
There is a big gap between Martell two years ago and Nic last year offensively, and also a big gap defensively. I expect Nic to narrow that offensive gap somewhat, so I expect if Martell is going to play more than Nic, he has to narrow the defensive gap somewhat.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
I'm as big a Webster fan as there is
but let’s not forget that Batum was a revelation as a 19-yr international rookie. His emergence last year was a complete and total surprise to virtually every NBA observer. He will only get better – and that includes his “confidence”. If the Euroleague is any indicator, Batum is well on his way to making a mockery of the sophomore slump.
That said, I think the 1-2 punch of Webster and Batum will be the best SF tandem in the NBA, this season. In fact, if they don’t combine to be a top 3 in Net PER, to go along with top 3 in Net PER for the 2-guard and PF positions, I will be shocked. Center could also be top 5.
Houston may still be stronger at SF defensively
Ariza is not as good as Artest but he is longer and faster and younger. Battier is all NBA Defensive 2nd Team. Neither of our guys has proven themselves to this level.
Travis: "His length is unbelievable. He's long, it feels like he gets his go-go-gadget arm out there and gets the ball." Dante Cunningham
who's going to play 2-guard for Houston?
I thought Ariza and Battier were both starting at the 2-3 or 3-2?
I noticed Shane is out for a week with a tweaked something or other. Shades of Hedo
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
LeBron begs to differ
It doesn’t even matter who his backup is LeBron + random scrub > Batum + Webster. I like Batum and Webster, but I think it is unlikely that they will even be in the top 5 of net PER.
Right
If we’re top 10 at SF, the good times are rolling, because we’ll be top 5 at center, top 2 or 3 at SG, top 7-8 at PF, and top 12 at PG.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
the Blazers were
3rd or 4th in NET Per at the 2 and 4, top 7 at the 3, and middle of the pack at the 1 and 5. It is hardly a reach to expect both the 3 and 5 positions to be top 5.
They were top 7 at the 3 because Roy spent significant time at that position
If Roy gets almost all his time at SG this year, the net PER at SF will be lower.
by trk on Oct 1, 2009 1:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I have estimated that Roy played SF 39% of the minutes with Rudy at the SG spot
That changes the dynamic some. But Roy said this week he was not going to guard SF again this year so does this continue? If so we are good at every position because Rudy may be top 10.
Travis: "His length is unbelievable. He's long, it feels like he gets his go-go-gadget arm out there and gets the ball." Dante Cunningham
his 'revelation'?????????
ok listen i get that you guys like Batum but the dude scored 5 points and grabbed 3 rebounds in 18 mpg last year. yes hes decent on defense.
but cmon. stop the koolaid.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Oct 1, 2009 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Decent defense?
He was our best defender as a rookie. Yes, better than GO.
Why would we stick him on the bench to guard other backups? It’s not like Martell is an offensive genius. He averaged 10 and 4 in 29 minutes in his 3rd season. Is that really that much better than Batum’s rookie year?
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
And about Martell's silky J
He shot 42% from the field and 39% from 3 land. La di freakin da……..all in his 3rd NBA season.
Martell’s rookie year, he averaged 6 and 2 in 18 minutes, but without the defense.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
I buy Freeman's article
The positive spin is consistent with Martell’s statements last year and earlier to Brian Smith. Chemistry is good and Martell has been here long enough to have a voice and to lead by example.
The Magic had the system to use Howard inside and surround him with shooters. It worked pretty well, at least until Jameer went down (I think they changed their style some after the injury). KP in the past has made the same statement about Oden – we need to surround him with shooters. I still see Martell as our best shooter. When we need to spread the floor Martell is money.
The best part is that Coach Nate goes into the season with versatility and choices of weapons with depth. If they defend they will be very hard to beat.
As for your prediction of a poor November and December – it smacks of a hustler move to get bets for the kids!
Travis: "His length is unbelievable. He's long, it feels like he gets his go-go-gadget arm out there and gets the ball." Dante Cunningham
Good that you don't have to
They happen to play on the same team.
Travis: "His length is unbelievable. He's long, it feels like he gets his go-go-gadget arm out there and gets the ball." Dante Cunningham
"(Martell) is about winning" ???????
Where is the basis for that?
Martell is about shooting.
He has not been a great defender, or passer, or blocker, or rebounder.
Those are TEAM supportive qualities that will dictate which SF gets the majority of minutes.
You can make a case for bringing in a shooter to add quick scoring but….
you need those other qualities throughout the game.
take away the Europeans,
and maybe Pryzbilla, and none of last years PTBs had a team focus.
It’s really not NBA culture except at the championship level. When guys finally figure out what it takes to win. Not just lip service to “playing like a team.” But being Kevin Garnett committed to doing the work of it. We haven’t seen that with these Blazers yet.
I’m hoping that will start to change this year with improved passing and defensive effort. This is when coaching/leadership is so important.
They looked like a team to me when they were winning 54 games.
They certainly need to get better, especially on defense, but they looked like a team to me.
not really.
Hi Jk.
There were glimpses of it offensively towards the end of the season, but I’ve not seen it on the defensive end. In general, Portland is still a sum of its parts. For team mindedness to take, there is a critical mass of selflessness that has to be reached. It’s somewhat rare in the NBA, so I don’t think it keeps them from being a very good team, even a 60 win team. Just not a great team.
Um Batum has not been a great passer, blocker, or rebounder either
And Marty can outscore Batum all day long.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Oct 1, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Batum is better than Webster at everything in the game...
… except 3 point shooting and defensive rebounding.
Although I remember Webster as stronger and able to handle heavy SFs such as Artest without being posted up
Nic may get there and maybe even this year but they do seem to have different body types. His incredible length gives him the ability to block shots from behind – something I have not seen Webster do. Together they represent heavy matchup problems for every team in the league.
Webster has the physical tools to be a good defender. Last year he committed to becoming a strong defender and that is more of the battle than any other factor. He appears to be more athletic than Bruce Bowen ever was and has had a year of mental preparation to begin to approach that level. We saw how devastating Houston can be with two strong mobile wing defenders and I see no reason why these two cannot approach that level in a few years.
Travis: "His length is unbelievable. He's long, it feels like he gets his go-go-gadget arm out there and gets the ball." Dante Cunningham
Yes, I could see Martell being better against Artest and LeBron
He has the physical ability. We’ll see if it translates into defensive success against those players.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
And drawing fouls
Which is why Webster’s TS% is almost identical to Nic’s.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
Martell has not been a great … rebounder
Based on…? Maybe not “great” but he’s been pretty good for a 3, and I expect him to get better
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
8.2 percent and just under 300 in total for his minutes isn't bad, but it's not great either.
It puts him about on a level with Desmond Mason, Bobby Simmons, Vladimir Radmanovic, Francisco Garcia. Smaller players like Ramon Sessions come close to that.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
Miller-Roy chemistry
is going to be the most telling factor in how these lineups shake out.
If it’s immediately good, and Roy likes it, that’s probably what we’ll see.
Question is how much does the offense adapt to Andre’s strengths. That may only happen on the second unit.
I worry Roy can't play with a real point guard
because he plays the part at the shooting guard position. Andre Miller may be relegated to backup just because Roy wants to “run the team” meaning he always wants to the ball in his hand to shoot or dish. But if that is the case then how does a “true point guard” work with this team?
Maybe I’m wrong, but we have been so weak for so long at the PG position, it just might be the real weakness of this team.
"No disrespect to Jeff Blake"
by Eat Politicians on Oct 1, 2009 1:23 AM PDT up reply actions
If it turns out that Roy can't play with a pure PG
then it means Bayless is the future at the point. A combo guard who can bring the ball up and defend PGs.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
Three words: all star game
No Roy didn’t feel he was his most effective playing alongside CP3, but he still got his production without controlling the ball. That is all the evidence I need to say Roy can accomodate playing along-side a star PG.
2nd night in a row
@dave: does this mean i can take joe freeman off my rss feed?
blah blah blah blah lame comment - lame commenter
by Bandwagon Butcher on Oct 1, 2009 12:28 AM PDT reply actions
I really like this post, Dave
A big factor heading into this season is Martell Webster. Having him back is akin to having a highly touted draft pick, or a solid Free Agent pickup, except that we’ve already chanted his name at the Garden. A little bit like Steve Blake, a little bit like Greg Oden.
Martell seems to fit the starting role better, despite the defensive upgrade of Batum. During the Houston series, the Blazers were limited with what they could do with Nicolas, as there was no one Great Wing Player for him to guard. Unless you count Artest. (I don’t.)
Nate will eventually start Martell, and use Nic as his attack dog if someone gets hot on the wing.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Not at the beginning
A number of observers from Hollinger to Quick to Ben have pointed out that Nate focuses on defense in training camp. Martell never was an above-average defender, laterally not the quickest, reaching in too often, being caught out of position, not a strong rebounder for his position. Going by Ben’s reports, Nic has even improved defensively from the end of last season not shuffling his feet anymore so often and still hawking his opponent, skying for blocks and rebounds, etc. while Martell looks healthy and solid on offense but still has to get back a step to find his rhythm.
If Nate seriously considers keeping Blake over Miller in the starting unit, Nic deserves the same. It’s his spot to lose over the season.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
by Norsktroll on Oct 1, 2009 4:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Batum
has the skills to keep the job. To bring him off the bench when someone gets hot is less helpful than Nicolas stopping them from getting hot in the first place. Nic also has tremendous ball handling skills. Martel ,with confidence, can come off the bench for instant offense. That is what his skills would indicate he would be best at. “Martell, I need twenty points before the end of the quarter.” No problem for Martel.
Not being able to handle a hangover will lead to a level of maturity.
Wheels to Jason Quick
Good point. Martell could inherit Travis’ role of sixth man as the season progresses, to bring better shooting off the bench when the opposing team has keyed in on the players. Though not as good at creating his own shot than Travis, Nate might like him for his precision on the catch-and-shoot and pick-and-pops.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
by Norsktroll on Oct 1, 2009 4:59 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's all about matchups, balance, and chemistry
I expect the Blazers may lead the league this year in what usually isn’t a good category: most different starting lineups.
With our depth, and very close skill set between ‘starter’ and ‘backup’, I think Nate can switch starting lineups based on the opponent. Playing a team with a 3 that likes to get hot early? Start Batum. Have a faster PG? Start Dre. Etc… This would also help foster team chemistry, with less of a clear division and stigma between ‘starting’ and ‘coming off the bench’.
But it’s clear Nate is stressing D this year, and he’s a very loyal guy, so I’d bet a decent amount of change that, barring injury, Nic is going to start game 1 this year. Stressing team D only to leave what most consider your your best defensive player on the bench to start the season doesn’t make too much sense, and hurts Nate’s cred with the team.
Loyalty is another reason why your game 1 opening PG I believe will be Mr. Blake.
Blazers: RUN away with the title!
KP: Please don't trade the next decade's Scottie Pippen (Batum), Spanish Larry Bird (Rudy), Bill Russell (GO) or Captain BRoy - at least until they 3-peat..
And on the other hand...
I certainly see your point of view and I think Batum is most likely the starter come Game 1. But the flip side is the tendency for the team to come slowly out of the gate and a shooter like Webster might help alleviate that.
Granted, it certainly felt like the Blazers did a better job last year of coming out competitive than in years prior.
We need another offensive threat to start
That could be Greg, it could be Martell, it could be Andre, it could be an offensively improved Nic.
My money is on Greg. He isn’t likely to far surpass Joel defensively this year, so if he takes the spot, it will be because of offense. And if that happens, then offense becomes less important at the 3.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
I wouldn't be surprised if Oden did surpass Joel defensively this year
Oden looked pretty bad defensively at the beginning of last year, but it seemed like there was a noticeable improvement by the end of the season, and he looked great defending at the USA basketball mini-camp. Oden has better physical tools than Joel (especially now that he is fully healthy), and it just seems like his defense is improving at a very rapid pace.
Ah, but I said "far surpass"
He may be better, but there will be no huge gap on that end. For Greg to set himself apart from Joel, he’s going to have to do it offensively.
Long term, Greg may be far more than Joel, but I doubt we’ll see it this year.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
Martell
I think his year off has inflated peoples expectations a bit. He’s always been slow for his size. He couldn’t take anyone off the dribble. He couldn’t hit the open shot (only the hard ones, it’s weird). He played marginal defense.
If Batum has improved this summer at all, it’s his spot. I don’t care who starts at the . I understand the need for a floor spacer, but having a ballhawk on the opponents best player is more valuable than having him guard any 6th man, other than Manu.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
If a year off has inflated expectations for Martell
then the offseason has seen some Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation for Nick Barnes. The way posters are talking about his offense it’s like we ran multiple sets through him rather than having him as a 4th option, at best. I love the guy’s potential and I know he’s only 20, but when last year did he show an ability to put the ball on the floor and create? Other than showing a slightly better ability to move off the ball, I can’t think of a single thing he did better than Webster does offensively last year, but Webster is written into the corner as a “limited” offensive player and Nic is considered to be Scottie Pippen.
I know he looked good at Eurobasket, but until I see him doing that in the L and not against Slovenia, I’m not completely sold on Nic as an offensive force.
Agree with your thoughts iDea.
Martell has always been hyped as this pure shooter, but he often disappointed in that area. I think people are forgetting how streaky he was. Maybe though, the time off will have served to erase the mental block that some felt he was battling with those wide open shots.
Personally, I think Nic is a shoo-in because (as Jscot pointed out above) I believe Oden will give us that third scoring option on the floor minimizing the need for Martell’s skill set.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
Martell has a chance to earn the starting job
but if he’s not quite a bit better than he was pre-injury, Batum needs to be playing way, way more minutes.
Great mix of skills sets - nice job KP!
I tried looking at things a different way (hopefully more like a coach would): look at the batch of skill sets the Blazers have…
3-pt shooting: Martell, Rudy, Blake
Inside game: Oden, LMA
Slasher to the bucket: Dre, Roy, hopefully Nic, if he continues Euro aggressiveness
Catch and shoot: Travis, hopefully Roy, LMA a little bit
Tough D: Nic, hopefully Oden, and if you can believe his pre-season words, Roy
Fast break ability: Dre, Rudy, Nic, Travis
Alley-oop dunkability: Rudy, Oden, LMA, and it sounds like Martell
The reason I went through all that is that Nate showed last year he likes consistency: so he always made sure either BRoy or LMA were on the court, so he had somebody dependable on offense. He also wants to pound it in to Greg, and he values spot up shooters on the wing. I hope he wants to push the ball more, which requires a good running unit, and depth. So, I believe you will see units that have a good balance between the skill sets above.
I do believe the opneing night startng lineup will be:
Blake, Roy, Batum, LMA, Oden
That unit has it all (except for a great fast break), doesn’t it?
3-pt shooting: Blake
Inside game: Oden, LMA
Slasher to the bucket: Roy, hopefully Nic, if he continues Euro aggressiveness
Catch and shoot: hopefully Roy, LMA a little bit
Tough D: Nic, hopefully Oden, and if you can believe his pre-season words, Roy
Fast break ability: Nic
Alley-oop dunkability: Rudy, Oden, LMA, and it sounds like Martell
That leaves the "bench" with everything but a strong inside game (and D) with:
Dre, Rudy, Martell, Travis, Pryz
3-pt shooting: Martell, Rudy
Inside game: (weak here)
Slasher to the bucket: Dre (which should make up a little for that weak inside game)
Catch and shoot: Travis
Tough D: (nope)
Fast break ability (in spades): Dre, Rudy, Travis
Alley-oop dunkability: Rudy, Martell
Given this analysis, it’s a good thing it’s not hockey, and we don’t do wholesale line changes. For example, I think you’ll see Oden or more likely LMA on the court with the ‘second unit’ a lot to begin the year.
It’s all going to depend on matchups: ours, as in who plays well together, good D, spacing the court, can run a little… And the opponent: what do we want to take away from them? Gonna be a fun year…
Blazers: RUN away with the title!
KP: Please don't trade the next decade's Scottie Pippen (Batum), Spanish Larry Bird (Rudy), Bill Russell (GO) or Captain BRoy - at least until they 3-peat..
I like your thinking, but...
Tough D /= Pryz? Also, LMA can run fast-break just fine, if he’s getting support from the guards.
"Homer bones" ...
(tee-hee-hee)
Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k
I whole-heartedly support Marty and welcome him back
I hope he has a monster season, he deserves it. I wasn’t a Marty fan really at first but his perseverence and attitude has won me over. If there’s one guy I can’t wait to see this season it is Martell.
Blazer Fan
Where's the poll?
Great topic. I’m for Batum. Defense over offense. Bring the offense off the bench. While it’s true that Defense is a valuable skill at any point in the game, Batum tends to guard the opponent’s best wing, who usually starts.
Here's a poll...
I don’t want to self-promote, but I covered this over a week ago and included a poll, so you could look at that:
http://blazerstrail.com/2009/09/25/who-starts-sf-for-the-2009-10-trail-blazers/
http://www.blazerstrail.com
With Webster back and Outlaw coming strong into camp (left handed dribbles and passing the conditioning test)
It means the Blazers have an extra high value asset in Batum. A lot of NBA teams want him. We all know the Spurs drool all over him. It is time to entertain the thought of trading Batum to move up higher in the draft. I mean, Batum could get us from from the mid thirties to the low thirties in the second round. C’mon KP work that magic!!
I get the paper, so I don't care!
by Name's Ash on Oct 1, 2009 9:19 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I would only trade him for Tony Parker
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
by Norsktroll on Oct 1, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec
Spurs aren’t going to have any high draft picks for a while.
I suppose we could trade him for Duncan to get that backup big man that 2FL is always pining for.
I’d hold out for Parker, though.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
I think Tony Parker is overrated
Duncan and Ginobili are the main reasons why the Spurs are a good team.
by trk on Oct 1, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
they are the main reasons why the Spurs are a championship team
the Spurs were a good team without Ginobili and with an injured Duncan last year.
sigh
I guess no one but me remembers Martell being the best defensive player on our team two years ago…. like the only guy who could guard Kobe a little….
My guess is Batums shot will be better this year, and Martells might take a bit to come around…..
by Zers4Ever on Oct 1, 2009 9:33 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
oh and also
since Webster and Roy are basically the same size, and Webster is a way better defender then Roy, you can take a lot of defensive pressure off Roy when they are both in the game. You can do somewhat the same with Batum, but I think Webster will be a better defender on SG’s then Batum
really?
I guess no one but me remembers Martell being the best defensive player on our team two years ago…. like the only guy who could guard Kobe a little….
I honestly don’t remember this at all; just that everyone hoped he could become a defensive player or be able to create off the dribble or something more from him.
"...the primary focus of all obstacles is to induce labor, so progression can be born." - LiL C
I remember the end of his last year playing
Nate asked him to spend the summer on learning defense. If he wanted to get more minutes and have more impact on wins in his system. Nate told him learning defense will make him a star.
I get the paper, so I don't care!
this is what I remember too
And that he had a nice enough game at fanfest or preseason last year that made a lot of people think he was going to become the third best player on the team or something.
I love Martell. I only became a Blazer fan in the past few years, and Martell was my first rookie love. I even followed his progress in Iowa.. or Idaho.. or.. Ft. Worth.. or whatever place the d-league affiliate plays in.
"...the primary focus of all obstacles is to induce labor, so progression can be born." - LiL C
Total Recall
Let’s refresh our memory with some neutral pundits:
DraftExpress (current profile as of before his injury, not his pre-draft one)
Defense: Shows some signs on the defensive end, but not consistently. Not a bad one-on-one defender, but lacks the lateral quickness to consistently defend more athletic players. Will get beat off the dribble from time to time. Reaches a little bit too frequently. Doesn’t come up with many steals or blocks regardless. Has the size to contest shots and does a decent job getting a hand up when his man pulls up. Lacks some experience and savvy on this end. Will try and close out shooters and block their shots, leaving himself out of position for long rebounds. Cleans the glass at a solid rate for a wing. Makes a nice effort defensively, but still needs to develop better anticipation and fundamentals, and just learn the small tricks of the trade. Lacks the foot quickness to be a lockdown defender, and is somewhat stuck between the 2 and the 3, but has the strength, size and length to be a capable one with experience.
Hollinger:
2007-08 season: For a guy with such a nice stroke, he sure is bad at midrange jumpers. More than a quarter of Webster’s shots last season were long twos and he only made 38.9 percent; this actually was an improvement on the two previous seasons, when he made 34.3 percent and 33.8 percent….
Webster is 6-foot-7 with an NBA body and a sweet jump shot, making him a prototypical pro small forward. He’s trying to build on that by becoming an ace wing defender as well, and his body gives him a chance because he can easily repel post-ups by opposing wings. However, his lateral movement is more “decent” than “exceptional” and he’s not an overwhelming athlete, so this role stretches his skills to their limit.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
More Hollinger: Offensively, he’s not a good ball handler or an explosive player around the basket, so he depends on jumpers for most of his points. Last season only 26.5 percent of his shot attempts came in the basket area — among players 6-foot-7 or taller, only Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Sasha Vujacic, Peja Stojakovic and Kyle Korver shot from close range less frequently. With his stroke, Webster should also be a better foul shooter — he only made 73.5 percent last year.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
Good posts!
Some professional critiques are always useful when faded memories and emotions are being thrown around as reality.
by spencerbutte on Oct 1, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Roy on Webster's Defense
Rather than rely on our opinions or those of various bloggers/journalists, let’s look at what Brandon Roy says about Martell’s defense:
… And I watched some film on him in my second year — I was like, dang, Martell took a lot of pressure off me. …I think he’s a player that we missed last year… There was games where, like, me and Travis had to guard LeBron and Kobe, where (two seasons ago), Martell did that. And Nicolas can do that. So it takes a lot of pressure off me, so I’m excited that he’ll be back.
So, assuming you think Brandon Roy knows his elbow from his armpit, watch closely whenever Martell and Brandon are on the floor together and see if you can spot what Brandon saw.
I think everyone, including Brandon
agrees that Nic can D up, the argument here being that Webster actually isn’t half bad at that end himself, as according to Brandon’s film study.
You're right, I definitely don't remember Martell being our best defender
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
He was our best perimeter defender
It’s just that he wasn’t all that good.
We were, you know, a bad team on perimeter defense two years ago. And we weren’t exactly stellar last year, either.
As author of Da BOM (Blazer Optimist Manifesto), I hereby certify that we will win 62 games in the regular season. Disagree at your peril.
I remember all the perimeter defenders being equally mediocre 2 years ago
by trk on Oct 1, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, me too
I guess that means, technically, he could have been our best perimeter defender. But really, he stunk. He lacks the lateral quickness to be a great defender.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
Brandon and Prz
If Prz was the starter, then more offense is needed out of SF. Playing 3 1/2 on 5 on offense isn’t good. I think Batum is better than that but many don’t.
Whether it’s Miller or Blake, neither one is great at D. Both will give the effort, but they’re not Rondo or Kidd. Roy is a decent to good defender and he’s outstanding on individual plays at crunchtime. But perimeter D was a serious issue for the Blazers over the last couple years and the name is Batum. He allows Roy to save some energy by guarding the lesser SG or SF (and on occasion, the Tony Parkers of the NBA).
1. Oden bringing more offense and attention than Prz.
2. Miller being the better playmaker than Blake.
3. Batum making the defensive side easier for everyone (centers included).
Hate to absolutely disagree with Dave. Martell may end up starting, but he shouldn’t.
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