Who is our Starting Small Forward?
A terrific discussion on the merits of our three headed sf monster.
over 2 years ago
blazersunited
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Ive Said it before 100x's
And I’ll say it again. Martell is going to do things this year that make people regret ever forgetting who he plays for. I love Nico, but the next 4 yrs belong to Martell Webster
"Intent is prior to content, the question is, does this generation really want truth?"
"Cogito ergo sum" -Descartes
i'm with you
i think martell was going to explode last year, if he stays healthy he can become a serious stud. love nic, but would love to see martell go crazy.
http://basketballiluuminati.blogspot.com/
by blazersunited on Sep 26, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I love Batum
I don’t think the next four years belong to Martell. I think if he can make an impact this year, they might look to deal him to open up the spot for Batum. Batum absolutely has the tools to be a killer in a couple years. He’s the long-term guy IMHO
http://www.blazerstrail.com
My blog about the Portland Trail Blazers
to begin the season..
i think you’re right. if martell stays healthy, he’ll play into the role during the season.
http://basketballiluuminati.blogspot.com/
by blazersunited on Sep 26, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
chuckle
not a chance, i’m sure it was tongue in cheek, but great to have ime back around. with ime, andre and juwan around, i feel alot better about our experience and veteran presence.
http://basketballiluuminati.blogspot.com/
by blazersunited on Sep 26, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
or walks in..
and clearly becomes the dominant backup pf, making trout even more expendable.
'do it, do it, do it tell you're satisfied!' - brian wheeler
by blazersunited on Sep 26, 2009 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You can throw the stats out the window
The major reason why Nic or Martell will start is “who fits best with Roy and LMA?”
Batum became a “glue” guy last year; it was said that Brandon enjoyed playing with him. Nic also takes on the toughest defensive challenge at the beginning of each half. Nate just talked about the team needing to emphasize defense to reach the finals. Advantage: Batum
For Martell to “regain” his starting job, he’s going to have to outshine Batum as a defender and as a 3rd-4th-5th? scoring option on offense. That’s not an easy role to fill, especially for a guy who’s known for his jumper and rebounding, but not for his lateral quickness.
The one thing that may work in Webster’s favor is the starting PG battle. If Miller beats out Blake (like most of us anticipate, but there’s no accounting for Nate’s love of lineup “continuity” and low A/TO ratio from his PGs…) then Andre’s lack of long-range shooting may force McMillian to play his best 3pt threat from the SF position in the starting lineup to help spread the floor for Roy and LMA to operate. Advantage: Webster, unless Batum shows marked improvement in his 3pt stroke, as compared to Feb-March of last year
Let the best man win! Either way, the SF position will be in good hands, and the need for Nate to insert Roy at the “3” will be much less than last year
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I agree
Webster/Rudy/Travis plays with Miller, Blake with Batum. This balances the shooting
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on Sep 26, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
so, you're saying Blake and Batum remain as starters?
it’s kind of hard to put Rudy and Travis in the starting lineup, with Miller
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I'm saying...
That one of Rudy, Webster, or Travis, all of whom I see as receiving minutes at small forward (or in Rudy’s case, at shooting guard while Brandon slides over to small forward) needs to be on the floor with Miller to balance the shooting. If Miller comes off the bench, I don’t think that balance is going to be an issue, but as a starter, I don’t think Batum provides the right blend with Brandon, Lamarcus and Greg/Joel.
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on Sep 27, 2009 2:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Where do people get the idea that Webster is a much better shooter than Batum?
Webster shot just 42.2% total two years ago and shot only 40.8% for his 3 year career.
Webster shot 38.8% from 3-pt range two years ago and just 37.2% career.
Batum shot 44.6% total his rookie year and 36.9% from 3-pt range.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Batum shoots better than Webster this year.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 27, 2009 3:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Because Webster shot twice as many threes
And they were of the more difficult variety than Nic’s “no one within 10 feet” threes, and he still shot a better percentage than Nic last year. 2 years ago Trout shot a slightly higher percentage from deep than Webster, but he took something like a third of Webster’s three pointers and almost always from the corner, I think it’s pretty obvious that he wasn’t the better shooter.
Webster shot 3.6 3-pt shots per 24 minutes, Batum shot 2.8 per 24 minutes.
So that’s a difference of 0.8 3-pt shots per game if they had shared 48 minutes per game equally. Not even close to a 2x difference when you compare apples to apples.
Batum had a 3-pt % of 36.9%, while Webster had 38.8% his last full season.
Batum had a FG% of 44.6%, while Webster had 42.2% his last full season.
Batum had TS% of 55.5%, while Webster had 54.8% his last full season.
Batum had eFG% of 53.2%, while Webster had 51.6% his last full season.
So overall Batum shot better and scored with better efficiency. You can blame that on 29 other teams being stupid and not guarding him as much as they do Webster, but until proven otherwise I don’t see any proof that Webster is a much better shooter.
Let’s see how Nic reacts if they guard him tighter. Maybe he just puts the ball on the deck, drives around his man, and dunks.
Batum also out rebounded Webster per minute, had more assists per minute, had more steals per minute, blocked 2x shots per minute, and had less turnovers per minute compared to Webster. So Webster’s got to actually shoot much better than Batum to make up for Batum’s better all around play before I give him the starting spot.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 27, 2009 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, similar argument - not worth repeating again.
The good news – Batum and Webster will soon settle this on the court.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 27, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
it's all about respect
I remember watching Nic being left so wide open last year, he could’ve taken a couple of dribbles and read David Stern’s name on the Spalding before lining up the shot and letting it fly. The opposing teams wanted Batum to shoot the 3 ball, especially during the 2nd half of the season
I don’t remember this ever happening with Webster. The other teams didn’t want to leave him open for fear he would stick the dagger in. Maybe Martell will have to “earn” this respect again this year, but from all accounts (Townsend, etc) he’s getting good lift on his jumper and is right back where he “left off” last September.
If Nic improves his 3pt shot and makes the other team keep a defender on him at all times behind the arc, then those shooting stats will have a lot more meaning, to me
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Martell's actually guarded
Teams don’t leave Martell alone at the three point line. Nic was basically shooting uncontested 3’s every single time, and still shot a lower percentage than Martell.
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on Sep 27, 2009 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t think Batum provides the right blend with Brandon, Lamarcus and Greg/Joel.
Nate and Roy were pretty happy with Batum’s play as a starter last year. You don’t “need” another scorer in the starting lineup, just a guy who makes the other team “pay” when he’s left open. Plus, Nic is the best perimeter defender on the roster, by far. That comes in handy at the beginning of each half, to neutralize the other team’s best wing player.
I get the “we need Martell in the corner to spread the floor” strategy, I just think Nate is going to start the SF who blends the best with Roy and LMA, and Martell will have to work really hard “convince” everybody that he can do that better than Batum did last year, during the next month
54 wins? That makes Nic the “incumbent” at the 3
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
I meant with Miller as starting point guard
With Blake he’s fine. Like last year when they won 54.
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on Sep 27, 2009 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Yep
If you read the article, that’s exactly one of the arguments I made for Webster. I know you guys think it’s up in the air still, but I think it’s a given that the starting point guard will be Andre Miller. Swapping him for Blake means you need to go with the best long-range shooter at the 3, to balance the unit.
http://www.blazerstrail.com
My blog about the Portland Trail Blazers
it makes sense
but, you have to balance that against Nate’s desire to keep the starting lineup static. If Miller beats out Blake (as he should) and Greg beats out Joel (as we all hope he will) then McMillian will be faced with a choice to “roll over” 3 spots in a starting lineup that won 54 games last year (with a lot of help from the bench, I might add) Nate may opt to leave Nic in the starting lineup and get his outside shooting from Brandon and LMA, even if they’re not exactly deep threats from behind the arc
I’m not saying it will happen, but I could see Nate opting for Nic’s defense and the good “ju-ju” he developed with Roy and LMA last year at the beginning of each half, rather than to put in a 3rd “new” starter who can shoot it a little better, from downtown
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yeah, I see that argument
That would be my friend’s side of the argument, the “don’t fix it if it ain’t broke” angle. I can see it both ways, I just think there’s an added dimension here – we need to reclaim some of Webster’s value as a trade asset. I think he succeeds the most in that starting lineup, so I’m sort of hoping it turns out that way. It’s up to Martell.
http://www.blazerstrail.com
My blog about the Portland Trail Blazers
yeah, I read that and agree
we’ve had folks around here trying to include Marty in trades and I was like ‘cool your jets, he has negative trade value until he can get out there on the court in an NBA game and prove he’s healthy, again" But I think I’m gonna have to side with your friend the Knife’s argument that Websters long-term contract is going to be less-appealing for rival GMs this winter.
OTOH, Outlaw’s expiring contract is going to be much more attractive to teams that want to shed salary in preperation for next July’s FA derby. That doesn’t mean that KP won’t be able to deal Martell, but it’s less likely that he’ll get an offer that will make it “worth his while”…unless he needs to combine Webster’s salary with Travis’ to get a “big fish” like Devin Harris. (Regardless, if Webster can play 20+ mpg off the bench and look as good as he did in 2007, his trade value will be equivalent to his contract, again. Obviously, if he plays well enough to start and improves his overall numbers, he’ll look like more of a “bargain” to the other teams who might be in need of a sharp-shooting wing, down the road)
But my suspicion is that Trout will “leave” and Marty will “stay” at least until Batum fully develops and Claver is ready to come over. That’s just a guess-timate. Portland needs 2 SFs for 48 mpg, and I don’t believe that either Roy or Rudy are going to be playing a lot of 3, on a nightly basis.
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Very true... so back to the whole "lineup chemistry" issue
I do think that Outlaw is the most likely candidate to get dealt, and I do think that they need 2 guys (not named Roy or Rudy) to man that SF spot. So I guess we’re back to the question of who’s going to be in those two lineups, and who best complements those casts. You know, if somehow Blake did remain the starter, I would totally cast my vote for starting Batum. Blake is incredibly proficient at knocking down those corner spot-up threes. I just don’t see it though. Nate is going to say what he’s going to say, but I don’t see any way that Miller doesn’t start for us on opening night… If Miller is the PG, I want Martell out there stretching the defense.
http://www.blazerstrail.com
My blog about the Portland Trail Blazers
also...
I think Webster is redundant to a second unit with Blake and Rudy, who are great long-range shooters in their own right.
http://www.blazerstrail.com
My blog about the Portland Trail Blazers
the 2nd unit's offense will be...?
I’ve heard it both ways. The bench will run better with Miller at PG, and guys like Rudy and Travis would be better off in a running unit. And Greg would be better playing with Andre, because of the lob passes, etc
(Of course, the whole idea of 2 seperate 5 man “lines” is ridiculous in the NBA, no coach substitutes 5 for 5, there will always be overlap, between the bench and the starters, etc)
But for the sake of argument, let’s say you had a backcourt of Blake and Rudy, with Martell at the 3. What kind of half-court offense would you run? To me it’s simple, I’d have the big men set staggered screens, curl Rudy and Marty off the pin-downs and have Steve hit them in rhythm for catch-and-shoot jumpers (remember Webster’s 24-point quarter?)
The only downside is…Travis. He doesn’t strike me as a willing screen-setter, and you really want 2 good pick-setters to get the shooters open. A twin-towers lineup with Joel and Greg might work, or Juwan could come in and set screens for 5 minutes a game, I suppose. But this is just an example how putting 3 shooters into the game at the same time could work out for short stretches, as a change of pace.
(Then, when Brandon and Miller came back in, it would be back to a steady diet of ISOs, post-ups and P&Rs for the rest of the half…)
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
interesting
I thought it would be a mess, but that might work in some situations… especially against the right teams. It’s true that there’s no such thing as 5 for 5 lineup switches. Having Roy and Miller on the floor at the same time in the first half might not make that much sense, so maybe what Nate will do is quickly substitute Blake for Miller (again, I just see no way that Miller is not the starter…). If that were true, I might bring in Blake and Batum at the same time, for Miller and Webster. That leaves you with a long stretch where Miller can be the quarterback in the 2nd quarter, and Roy can rest. I’d do the same thing in the third, leaving Roy with a ton of gas in the tank for the 4th quarter, when I think you play your 5 best guys (which will include Miller and Roy).
http://www.blazerstrail.com
My blog about the Portland Trail Blazers
I came up with this last month, and jscot is still running it as his signature line
“if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration”
Sure, it’s a little Al-Sharpton-esque, but the idea is to keep at least one “creator” on the court for all 48 minutes, so the offense doesn’t go into a funk like it did for stretches of games, last year.
If Nate sticks with Blake as the starting PG, it could be because Steve and Brandon play well together, but it could also be because he doesn’t want to have to take Roy and Miller out of the game at the same time, so one of them has to be the “6th” man (and it’s not going to be Brandon, savvy?) If this strategy is explained to Andre I think he’ll be “cool” with it, as long as the team is winning and he’s “finishing” the close games.
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
and remember
Nate used to start games with Luke Ridnour and finish them with Antonio Daniels, up in Seattle
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Yeah, he likes to finish with defense...
I do remember that. He also used to drive me nuts when he would pull Brent Barry from the Seattle lineup in the midst of some very strange substitution patterns (a little further back)… Opting for Daniels instead of Ridnour was about defense, but I actually don’t know who would be be the “defensive option” in Miller vs. Blake. It doesn’t matter anyway, Nate is going to finish with Miller every game unless he’s hurt.
http://www.blazerstrail.com
Andre
I actually don’t know who would be be the "defensive option" in Miller vs. Blake
It’s not even close. It’s not because Miller is quicker or has longer arms, it’s all celebral. Steve’s a smart guy, but Andre studies film, detects his opponent’s tendencies, then communicates the best strategy for him teammates to defend as a group and mess up the other team’s sets.
I remember the Philly game at the RG last year, Miller and Iggy had Brandon frustrated like you will rarely ever see (at least, not until the Rocket’s series…) And all because Miller watched film of Roy’s moves, and snuck over to double Brandon when he reverse-spun.
I remarked at the time that Portland really needed a second “creator” on the floor to take advantage of the resulting 4-on-3 when Roy was trapped and had to pick up his dribble. Little did I know that Miller was going to be that 2nd creator. Andre is going to help on both ends of the floor, he will play 30+ mpg and be out there in the 4th quarter until the game is decided.
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Batum earned it
Look at the picture on the link! He was very effective against the league’s best last year. He made smart plays every time he was in the game. The extra passes, helping team mates on defense, and finishing nicely at the rim are just some of the important things he did in the very limited number of minutes he played for Nate. (Many games he didn’t appear in the second half)
by wheresBlazerBill on Sep 26, 2009 10:06 PM PDT reply actions
There were whole weeks that Batum didn't score 10 points for all games combined
He does good things, and I like him as a player, but he was a below average starting small forward in the NBA last year.
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on Sep 27, 2009 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Based on points scored?
*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
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><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><>
Based on everything
20 starting SFs definitely better than Nic last year: Pierce, LBJ, Iggy, Melo, Durant, Grant Hill, Ariza, Artest/Battier, Wallace, Prince, SJax, Josh Howard, Deng/Salmons, Hedo, Marvin Williams, Butler, Granger, Marion, Mike Miller, Wilson Chandler.
I’d rather have Nic in the long run than most of those guys, but they were all better than him last year. And we need to take our blinders off if we think that a 20 year old rookie who could barely scrape 20 minutes a game was a premier SF last year. I don’t remember seeing too many arguments from Denver fans about how Dahntay Jones was a top starting SG last year.
Ability to vote
I know a lot of folks have already read this, but I added a poll to the bottom of the article that allows you to vote on who you think should be the starting SF on opening night.
http://www.blazerstrail.com
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