Oden's Rookie Offensive Prowess: Updated
by Blaz06Draft on Sep 23, 2009 6:24 PM PDT
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PrintGreg Oden is characterized as a bust by many uneducated or biased members of the media. On the contrary, when he was on the court, he had one of the best rookie seasons of any center to come into the league in the last 25 years. We all know he was still recovering from microfracture surgery, never in shape, and injured twice during the year. He fouled alot, which kept him out of games. This is what the uneducated or biased observers focus on.
Let's focus on his offense, on the time he was on the court. He gets characterized as raw and of limited effectiveness. We'll compare him to the rookie years of other centers. What do you want out of your center on offense? I say two things: offensive rebounds and efficient shooting.
Let's first compare Oden first to the greatest all-NBA centers to come into the league from 1984 thru 1999: Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, and Ewing. These players were all-NBA centers (top 3 centers in league) a combined total of 43 times, or an average of 11 times each. Here's how Oden stacks up against these all-time greats in terms of offensive rebounding percentage:
- Hakeem 16.9%
- Oden 15.7%
- Shaq 13.4%
- Robinson 11.7%
- Ewing 7.6%
So Oden was 2nd only to Hakeem amongst this illustrious group, and outstripped Shaq, Robinson, and Ewing.
Let's look now at shooting, using true shooting %, which factors in free throw shooting, as the metric. Here's the results:
- Oden 0.599
- Robinson 0.597
- Shaq 0.584
- Olajuwon 0.564
- Ewing 0.526
So Oden tops this list, again bettering Shaq and Robinson, and the rest of these 11-time all-NBAers.
Let's see, Oden the bust, coming in 2nd on o-rebounding and 1st in true shooting accuracy, against the four best centers of the last 25 years.
Now let's compare Oden to the top two post-2000 centers: Yao Ming and Dwight Howard. As far as o-rebounding:
- Oden 15.7%
- Howard 12.2%
- Ming 9.7%
So Oden's o-rebounding rate is 29% better than Howard's and far outstrips Ming's.
As far as shooting:
- Oden 0.599
- Howard 0.571
- Ming 0.570
Again, Oden is above his peers, the best Eastern and Western conference centers.
And remember, Oden did all of this -- placing highly against 11-time all-NBA centers and outstripping his two best peers -- while recovering from microfracture surgery, never in shape, and injured twice during the year.
GO GREG, GO BLAZERS!!!
UPDATE STARTS HERE
I've seen the comments about the other players being more of a focus on offense than Oden. This is mostly true. It is reflected in the Usage Percentage (USG%) metric. It represents the percent of a teams offensive plays that involves a player while on the court. It factors in field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers.
The USG% for the players are:
Shaq 27.0%
Robinson 26.6%
Ewing 26.5%
Hakeem 23.5%
Ming 22.1%
Oden 19.3%
Howard 16.7%
Oden is toward the bottom of the list. His team ran the offense thru him only about 2/3 as often as did Shaq's, Robinson's, and Ewing's.
Let's now look at what the players did with the offensive opportunities they got. The first metric I developed is PER/USG%. PER is an overall measure of effectiveness, especially offensive, per minute played. Here's how this metric works out:
Howard 1.030
Robinson 0.989
Oden 0.938
Ming 0.932
Hakeem 0.898
Shaq 0.848
Ewing 0.657
So Oden didn't have as much of the offense run thru him, but he is 3rd in this metric, and did well with the opportunities he was presented.
Another metric that tries to get at the same thing is points per 36 minutes plus o-rebounds per 36 minutes, divided bu USG%. This tries to factor in scoring and o-rebounds, and adjust it for offensive opportunities. These are the two factors I think are key for a center on offense. The results are:
Hakeem 1.119
Robinson 1.034
Howard 1.024
Oden 1.005
Shaq 0.970
Ming 0.891
Ewing 0.860
You can see that Oden is in the middle of the pack, and above Shaq, Ming, and Ewing, and within 3% of Howard and Robinson. So again, Oden did alright with the offensive opportunities he was presented.
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those are good stats for a rookie center
But I’d like to see a comparison of mpg between Greg and those other dudes. And please write another post when Greg manages to play more than 20 minutes per game. Hopefully Greg’s performance will still be laudable.
The counsels of impatience and hatred can always be supported by the crudest and cheapest symbols. For the counsels of moderation, the reasons are often intricate, rather than emotional, and difficult to explain. And so the chauvinists of all times and places go their appointed way: plucking the easy fruits, reaping the little triumphs of the day at the expense of someone else tomorrow, deluging in noise and filth anyone who gets in their way, dancing their reckless dance on the prospects for human progress, drawing the shadow of a great doubt over the validity of democratic institutions. And until peoples learn to spot the fanning of mass emotions and the sowing of bitterness, suspicion, and intolerance as crimes in themselves - as perhaps the greatest disservice that can be done to the cause of popular government - this sort of thing will continue to occur.
by Love on Sep 23, 2009 6:32 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Obviously those centers probably logged heavy minutes in their rookie seasons.
The point of this thread was just saying while Greg was playing, he was pretty darn good.
by dario argento on Sep 23, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions
"He fouled a lot ... This is what the uneducated or biased observers focus on."
Committing fouls was his biggest weakness. It limited his minutes and limited his contribution to the team. It makes no difference what his stats are if he can’t stay on the court, so it’s unjustified to fault others for focusing on his biggest weakness. However, if someone says he can’t fix that problem, then I would suspect they are uneducated or biased.
Reducing his fouls is the #1 thing he needs to focus on to become a better player. When he solves that problem everything else will start to fall into place. I expect him to be much better this year because of increased mobility, experience, and perhaps a little more maturity. However, he may still have a rough time, especially early in the year if we have replacement refs before getting the regular refs back. Inconsistent officiating would probably hamper his ability to adjust this year and could lead to confidence or attitude problems.
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Sep 23, 2009 7:48 PM PDT reply actions
he had a truly great rebounding rookie season and he scored efficiently
He’s got to stay healthy, learn to defend the pick and roll and challenge shots at the rim without fouling, and reduce his turnovers. If he does those three things, even if he never looks polished on offense, the Blazers will be in fantastic shape. He’s got the tools to make it happen— let’s see if his knee corporates and if he puts in the work.
by jksnake99 on Sep 23, 2009 7:51 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
OdensKnee, Ltd
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
Yeah, pretty much every statistical evaluation shows Oden was very good as a rookie big when he was on the court
He just wasn’t on the court as much as ANYONE would like, except the enemy.
Even just glancing at his raw stats— 9/7 ain’t bad out of a really raw rookie big man coming off an injury. But, it doesn’t scream GREAT. He simply didn’t play enough games, and worse than that, not enough minutes each game to make his numbers reflect his actual impact.
Because when he played, he usually did pretty good, and this version of Oden is a 6-foot-under-the-basement level of what Oden will become. Even with all of the problems, he was very effective and some nights damn good.
It’s why I always say as long as Oden can somehow stay on the court, most of our problems go away. Because when he’s on the court, he’s good. And history says he’ll only get better, both from recovering from the micro and just standard gaining experience from being in the league. Especially as a big.
The only thing we gotta worry about is whether his string of unluckiness will continue or not. Everything else has been purty good, even if you don’t consider the extenuating circumstances.
Mortimer
Do you ever wonder why it is that media and general observes are so quick to label Greg?
What are their motives? if it’s selling, you could sell by getting in depth interviews that encourage and compare like the post here, and sell the same amount, maybe more.
Where’s the benefit?
I just don’t get it. I’ve seen enough from Greg Oden to know, at least in my opinion, that he’ll be good and if this team can win a championship or more, he’ll be great.
I'm in the business of bringing out the best in people.
Gotta have a quick label for the casual fan.
Julian Wright= Enigma
Al Horford= Lunch pail
Darren Collison= Steady
Beasley= Underachiever
etc etc all get a label slapped on so we don’t have to watch them and come to our own conclusions.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Sep 28, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Gotta have a quick label for the casual fan.
Julian Wright= Enigma
Al Horford= Lunch pail
Darren Collison= Steady
Beasley= Underachiever
etc etc all get a label slapped on so we don’t have to watch them and come to our own conclusions.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Sep 28, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Julian Wright= Enigma
Al Horford= Lunch pail
Darren Collison= Steady
Beasley= Underachiever
etc etc all get a label slapped on so we don’t have to watch them and come to our own conclusions.
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Sep 28, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
HurraKane212=Never has anything new to say
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
by jscot on Sep 28, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
I’ve been wondering all along why Oden is so unpopular. Because he looked great to me last year. Great effort. Great physical talent. Inexperience and injury are the only things I saw that limited him. That’s why the call them rookies.
Maybe this will lay it to rest. The OP supports the claim that Oden established a peer group in his first year in the NBA of Hakeem Olajuwan and Shaquille Oneal.
In other words, he did very very good!
But practically every comment you see, for a year now, if Oden does x, y and z, then he will be a good player. If Oden gets his head on straight, if Oden stops fouling so much, if Oden…
And then there was the whole JQuick’s personal attack on Oden. And the embarassing coverage of Oden’s visit to a psychologist here and elsewhere.
I don’t get it.
Is it cause he doesn’t give the pretty sound bite? Is his face too African looking? Maybe Greg rubbed someone with influence the wrong way?
Whatever it is, it would be nice if it would stop.
It's because the common perception is that PPG is the best measure of how good a player is
Regardless of minutes, eFG%, etc. Thus the common NBA fan just sees 9 and 7.
Also, the fouls really are a problem.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
if he doubles his minutes played, and only improves marginally (in areas outside staying healthy and fouling less), I think that would change a lot of peoples opinions.
Yeah, even if he remains only as "good" as he was his rookie year
And simply stays on the court, you have a very good center and much more production than we’re used to from the 5.
I can’t imagine a scenario where he only stays as good as his rookie year, but non-injury worst case scenario and he never ever improves, he’s still a very effective big man.
M—
Greg is a "star".
Much of his problem with fouling was that he was so closely scrutinized.
Powerful and huge he is a curiosity and that was a large part of his problem. When he did foul, the fans and the refs were already looking at him. The power was there but much of the freakish speed and athletic ability were missing. I’m hoping that a lighter more agile Oden will have more success. The NBA is a “star” driven product. When Greg is happy he has one of the best personalities in the history of this franchise. He is bright and funny and I am rooting for him. I for one am happy that “it” hasn’t been handed to us on a silver platter. Our growth has been organic and the future is so bright we will have to wear shades.
Well said and agreed
The more agile Greg has to do with his weight but even more has to do with his recovery from microsurgery.
Others have needed 2 years to regain their explosive capabilities after microsurgery. Amare is a good example. In his second year back he became an All Star (he already has some time in the league). Greg could do that as well. It simply takes time. I can envision Greg as our most valuable player simply because his unique physical abilities come along only every decades or so.
Greg could be an All Star this year
With Yao out, and Shaq gone … The West is wide open for center All-Stars. Greg could make it. His competition: Bynum, Nene, Beidrins, Camby/Kaman, Robin Lopez, Hawes, Jefferson (who’s really a PF), Collinson, Okur, Dampier, Who-ever-the-Rockets-throw-out-there, Okafor, & Bonner.
The real contending competion is from Nene, Okur (who’s been an All-Star), Jefferson, Bynum, and maybe Okafor.
Seriously, … none of those guys stand out as bona-fide All-Stars. Granted Oden doesn’t either right now. But here’s my point; Oden could be better than all of them. The potential is definitely there.
I'm in the business of bringing out the best in people.
He'll need to start strong
and stay healthy, and solve the fouling.
And we need to win a ton of games — the coaches reward that.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
this is good and all, but don't forget that Oden played the majority of the time against
2nd tier, bench bigs. He also did not have the weight of production on his back and had better players beside him who draw attention from the defense, which led to high percentage looks. Don’t read too much into stats from last year other than his rebounding, which was admittedly superb.
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
And true, he wasn't expected to score and we hardly ran plays for him
Which makes the 9 points in 20 minutes out of a super raw big with no offensive moves MORE impressive, not less.
He got doubled almost every time he touched it, way before his offense had earned it. It’s because he is big enough to just get close to the basket and dunk it in man to man coverage.
He earned his 9 points. We hardly passed to him, missed him wide open all the time, and really scored a lot less than he could have if he had a PG who knows how to play with a big. Roy did amazing, but didn’t incorporate him like he should.
It’s not like Dwight Howard has post moves. He scores off of others creating and him finishing, and offensive rebounds. Oden can do that easy, plus he’s a much better passer.
Morty
by Mortimer on Sep 23, 2009 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
+1
Oden, in as little time as he played last year, was dangerous. You could just see it on the court. Other coaches saw it. That’s why he was doubled. For some reason the Portland media were more interested in his life outlook.
And Mortimer has it right. Our offense limited itself last year. With the conservative ballhandling approach and limited passing when it mattered. Oden wasn’t the only guy under-utilized offensively.
What few bright spots we had against Houston in the playoffs were when Greg got the ball in his hands. Because it felt like that could turn the tide. Whereas Brandon beating his head against that wall trying to do it by himself was only more demoralizing.
No question about the fouls. But 2 factors mitigate that:
1. Blazers were poor against the pick and roll and had generally weak perimeter D last year. (And when I say poor against the pick and roll, I’m not talking about our big men, I’m talking about very inconsistent responses to the P and R from our point guards which of course puts a lot of pressure on the big men.)
2. Rookie centers get a lot of fouls.
All in all, there has been too much criticism of Greg Oden, and it makes me wonder if there is something prejudicial going on in the media. Regardless, I am happy to see this post and hope there will be more respect in the coverage of Greg this year.
In regards to the fouls
He was also 30+ pounds heavier than the last time he played competitive basketball. That may not seem like such a big deal, but it’s like learning to play in a whole new body. Factoring in that he was only one year removed from micro-fracture surgery compounds this even more.
I wish I spent more time playing catch with you and less time training my body and mind to kill you...
Right
He tried to move in ways he used to be able to move, and couldn’t. Limited agility means you end up late to the spot (block instead of charge) and (unless you are very experienced) instinctive reaching when you shouldn’t have had to reach.
Regained agility = 50% fewer fouls, in all probability.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
But Mort,
the OP is using Oden’s exceptional field goal percentage to validate the opinion that he’s doing just fine. My point isn’t that he’s not doing well, but that FGP is a muddying stat in this argument because it doesn’t take into account the degree of difficulty. The players Oden is compared to on this list all took the burden on themselves in their rookie year, they were expected to carry the team from the outset. Oden hasn’t had those expectations, as we have surrounded him with good players that draw the defense’s attention. This created good looks for him at the basket as he was able to benefit from the penetration of his guards most of the time. I strongly feel (and hope) that Oden will be fine this year on the offensive end and the stars will align for him finally. But my central argument is that the sample size of Oden’s offensive stats from last year does not garner a guarantee to be a world beater anytime soon on offense.
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
by premthegrem on Sep 24, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
It's not so much the sample size
as that the quality of the samples is different.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
No, that's a good point
Because of his foul problems we couldn’t rely on his scoring like the other classic big men were relied on.
But, the numbers are very promising, and he did it against almost every sort of player. We both didn’t go into him enough or catch him when he’s open, AND he wasn’t on the floor enough to be there for us offensively.
His percentage does not equal Hakeem or Shaq because he wasn’t used in the same way, and his extenuating circumstances make it difficult to compare and contrast him with other #1 bigs. But, the numbers are, again, very promising and show he was effective on offense… even with having no post moves and no one skilled at delivering him the ball in a killing zone.
You are 100% right though, his situation was simply different than the others.
Mortimer
Point well taken
Objective observers can’t call him a bust. He’s actually quite good. But, the game is 48 mins, not 28. He won’t ever be comparable to the all star centers you listed if he can’t stay on the court for around 30 mins per game.
by goblazer1 on Sep 24, 2009 8:50 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Greg is efficient, he is just not dominant yet where the efficiency really creates good total numbers and many wins
Step by step. I wouldn’t compare him to the greats of the game at the moment, but he is near the absolute top among big men in the 3 last draft classes (along with Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Joakim Noah, I’m probably forgetting someone). His PER is around 18, which is excellent for a rookie. If he can build on that, play more minutes even with a little worse efficiency (not necessarily, if he would get it up to 20 that would be great), he will be a strong option on the offensive end and potentially a beast defensively and especially on the boards.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
As for the minutes, I think the absolute minimum goal should be 2000 (+700 minutes, more than 24 per game)
If he – and Nate in his game management – can’t get that done, we have a big problem. Oden NEEDS to play half the minutes available at center. 2300+ (28+ minutes) would be even nicer, but Joel is a strong competitor, so splitting time sounds about right for a start.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
I agree Nate bears responsibility along w GO
Nate needs to make sure Greg is playing even if he’s in foul trouble. As the previous fanpost argued. It might not “look” good to have Greg fouling out a lot, but he needs to keep Greg out there. The kid needs to get extended minutes to get a feel for the game. He’ll figure out how to foul less eventually.
by goblazer1 on Sep 24, 2009 9:46 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
In general, I agree
One little quibble — it is harder to maintain high efficiency with high usage. We weren’t running the offense through Greg, so if he got the ball, it was often on an offensive rebound or in position to dunk it.
If you were running the offense to him a lot more, it would have been harder for him to have the same shooting efficiency. The other centers were much more high usage as centers, so it is natural that their efficiency would be lower.
Even so, your point is sound — Greg was a very efficient scorer. But he wasn’t a major offensive weapon.
It won’t take much improvement for him to become that major weapon, though. He’s a keeper. He’ll average a double double plus this year, I expect.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
The "injury prone" label still mystifies me a bit.
Maybe it’s because as a fan I was able to basically hit reset on the first year and truly view his rookie year as year #1. Compared to other big men, I don’t know where he stacked up statistically in number of games missed due to injury, but it never struck me as being on the high side. Plus, his injuries weren’t of the persistent, chronic variety which are much more worrying long term. To me, his limited minutes due to fouls was always far and away a bigger concern than games missed due to injury.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
It was on the high side, especially since you usually expect your top draft picks to play a lot of minutes. 0 in year one and 1300 in year two isn't much.
The injuries are unrelated and only the knee injury was a structural damage while the rest were freak injuries, but they can be constructed as a series of injuries leading to the idea that he is prone to it. Add anecdotes about his legs being a different length and Bill Simmons stupid but persistent “he walks like an old man” observation/joke, and the storyline is formed.
I think Greg was the angriest and most frustrated at the All-Star weekend, his chance to show on a national level what he can do, and instead a few days before he bumps knees with Maggette and has to sit on the sidelines getting asked by Craig Sager about all his injuries instead of his game. He looked like he either wanted to disappear into a hole or punch him in the face.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
These are good explanations of the bias
but not, in my mind, reality. You have accurately described the background for the media description.
As lukeyhere alludes, the minutes in year two are much more related to his fouling than his injuries. In 61 games played only 2 or 3 were shortened by injuries. That still leaves him 58 in which he would have played an average of 30 minutes for a total well over 1700. He earned the right to start over a very good veteran and he actually did play 30 minutes in games where he was not limited by fouls.
The injuries in another player would be remarkable (except for the microfracture) for the ability to play well through them, dominated by the broken wrist in college. He does not seem to be a malingerer. If the injuries continue through another two years limiting him to 60 or fewer games in each of those years then it would seem to be a trend suggesting injury prone. For a 18 year-old, three years seems too short.
So the point I get from lukeyhere that Greg has been unfairly labeled injury prone seems at least valid in being premature. We are writing in the larger context of Blaz06Draft’s refutation of the label “bust” and “injury prone” therefore being used to label Greg a bust.
I'm an Oden fan here
but it’s pretty tough to defend him based on last year’s statistics. Here are the overall statistics from some rookie years:
Season Age Tm Lg G MP FG% FT% ORB DRB TRB AST BLK PTS ▾
Oden 21 POR NBA 61 21.5 0.564 0.637 2.8 4.2 7 0.5 1.1 8.9
Shaq 20 ORL NBA 81 37.9 0.562 0.592 4.2 9.6 13.9 1.9 3.5 23.4
Hakeen 22 HOU NBA 82 35.5 0.538 0.613 5.4 6.5 11.9 1.4 2.7 20.6
Ewing 23 NYK NBA 50 35.4 0.474 0.739 2.5 6.5 9 2 2.1 20
Robinson 24 SAS NBA 82 36.6 0.531 0.732 3.7 8.3 12 2 3.9 24.3
Howard 19 ORL NBA 82 32.6 0.52 0.671 3.5 6.5 10 0.9 1.7 12
Ming 22 HOU NBA 82 29 0.498 0.811 2.4 5.8 8.2 1.7 1.8 13.5
Curry 19 CHI NBA 72 16 0.501 0.656 1.5 2.2 3.8 0.3 0.7 6.7
Olowokandi 23 LAC NBA 45 28.4 0.431 0.483 2.7 5.3 7.9 0.6 1.2 8.9
Bogut 21 MIL NBA 82 28.6 0.533 0.629 2.3 4.7 7 2.3 0.8 9.4
Now, granted, Greg was younger than the quartet you mentioned, but on every front, he looks more like Curry, Olowokandi, and Bogut. Of course, this is due to his minutes being low and none of these guys were coming off major injuries, but let’s not be crazy with our choice of statistics. Greg DID NOT look impressive most of the time he was on the court last year. He generally looked lost and slow, except when he was facing weak competition. He DID look like a guy who had tons of potential… let’s home he fulfills it, rather than trying revisionist history.
Even though "he did not look impressive"
his production was still good during that time. That’s the point of the OP, and it is sound.
You are looking at his per game averages. Look at the minutes played and you understand why they were low.
All he has to do is fix the fouling somewhat, and his per game averages would have been much higher. Even though he is raw and doesn’t look great at times, he is still effective. If he becomes more polished in his play, he is likely to become a dominant force in the middle.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
While he “did not look impressive,” he put up o-rebounding and shooting accuracy numbers on a per minute basis equal to or better than the all time great centers. That’s my point.
I think he’ll look impressive this year, and it will just be the beginning. If he can get to 30 minutes a game, I think he’ll be good for 15 points and 12 rebounds.
Why rely on the stats?
We watched him play. When given the ball to create his own shot, he didn’t look very good. Not bad, but really he was only effective when he could rebound and put-back.
If you want to concentrate on stats, then play around with his Blocks. He wasn’t exactly on pace to get 3 a game, or anything. And having watched him, I can see he is slow to anticipate shots. He gets only the blocks where the player drives near him. Great centers were great because they “came out of nowhere.” Usually, Greg was nowhere.
He will improve, sure. But it’s silly to use low-minute stats to demonstrate he will be one of the greats when seeing him in person showed he wasn’t nearly as impressive as Brook Lopez. In the long run, Brook might be the better center for the Blazers’ style of play, with a well-rounded game.
Play like your contract year was last year.
by LimitedUpside on Sep 25, 2009 1:55 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
unrec
Yeah, I watched him play!
I watched him SLAM the ball through the hoop with tremendous force!
I saw him alter opponent’s offensive sets, either trying to get him to foul, or get away from him.
I saw him doubled, as an injury rehabbing rookie, almost immediately.
I saw him turn into an offensive rebounding force.
I saw him called for way more ticky-tack fouls than the average (even rookie) center.
Can’t wait to see him “not look very good” this year!
Brook Lopez? Gimme a break… In older, less PC days, he’d be called the token Big White Stiff… He won’t be able to hold Oden’s jock when their careers are over.
Blazers: RUN away with the title!
KP: Please don't trade the next decade's Scottie Pippen (Batum), Spanish Larry Bird (Rudy), Bill Russell (GO) or Captain BRoy - at least until they 3-peat..
by Visionary2 on Sep 25, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Meh
One of the reason he didn’t get many blocks is because players would start into the paint, see him, and change direction. I watched him play, and saw that. That is as good as blocking a ball into the seats.
Of course, it takes two years to regain full mobility after microfracture.
Where would you expect lack of mobility to affect him the most? 1) Being out of position on defense, resulting in fouls 2) Fewer blocked shots.
Oden changes the game. Brook Lopez doesn’t, and never will. He’s a nice player, I’d love to have him if Joel leaves in the next couple of years.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
I totally disagree Jscot
Brook Lopez was one of the best shotblockers in the league last year— far better than Oden. Lopez also has the ability to shoot the mid range jumper and is much more polished offensively.
Despite all that, Oden’s pure size and rebounding ability make him roughly as effective as Lopez when on the court— but Lopez was the better interior defender last year.
Lopez will be an allstar. I don’t think Rod Thorn would trade him for Oden.
He’s a nice player, I’d love to have him if Joel leaves in the next couple of years.Give me a break, man.
Thorn would trade him for Oden
in a heart beat.
Lopez doesn’t instill that “oops, better not go that direction” response that Greg does. You’ve seen it, I’ve seen it.
Let’s just compare their stats (per 36 in parentheses):
Lopez had 2.5K minutes, scored 1068 points (15.4), had 665 rebounds (9.6), and blocked 151 shots (2.17).
Oden played 1.3K minutes, scored 540 points (14.8), had 424 rebounds (11.6), and blocked 69 shots (1.89).
So Oden was equal in scoring per 36, well ahead in rebounding, and approximately 10% behind Lopez in blocked shots — in his microfracture recovery year.
If you think Lopez is going to be an all-star then you have to assume that either A) Oden isn’t going to improve despite being healthy or B) Oden isn’t going to be healthy or C) Oden is going to be a perennial all-star at least. Because Greg’s per minute productivity was better than Brook’s, and Brook wasn’t hampered by microfracture recovery.
Anyone who knows basketball knows that lack of mobility brings fouls. And anyone who has been following microfracture recoveries knows it takes time to regain mobility. You know all that, so you know the fouling is going to be less of an issue this year.
Greg’s struggles last year were the natural result of his operation. He’ll be fine this year. He’ll get in foul trouble sometimes, but not like last year. He’ll easily play 25-28 mpg (over 30 if we didn’t have Joel, and perhaps over 30 anyway), and his per 36 numbers will come up, too. You can convert at least one of his fouls per game into a block this year just because he’ll have the added mobility to be able to get to the shot without fouling this year. You can zap another of his fouls just because he’ll know better not to reach.
You posted that Lopez played double the minutes. That’s why he had higher stats. If the minutes differential were likely to continue, then you could continue to expect higher stats from Lopez. But the two major factors in Greg’s minutes (lack of agility and experience) are both going to be significantly lessened this year.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
I would rather have Oden... his upside is still higher
but the two players were approximately equal in PER— slight edge to Oden. However, Lopez was much more valuable to his team overall because he stayed healthy and out of foul trouble. Additionally, Lopez had a much higher usage— he’s a guy you can run your offense through much more so than Oden.
The reason I say Thorn doesn’t make that swap is because GMs are risk adverse, and Lopez is the much safer bet right now.
I don’t take issue with you being high on Oden, but I strongly take issue with the idea that Lopez isn’t a game changer. This is a player who by most advanced metrics ought to have been rookie of the year last year. If you re-do last year’s draft he likely goes #2 and you can make a very solid case for him as #1.
I guess it goes to what you mean by "game changer"
Thorn takes Oden because he hopes to lure LeBron or Wade, and those guys would love to play with Oden, more so than Lopez. If you have loads of offensive firepower, you take the guy whose greatest impact is on the boards and defense.
And the potential is too great to pass up. I don’t know that Thorn is that risk averse. His recent deals with Milwaukee, Dallas, and Orlando don’t strike me as the actions of a man avoiding risk.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
Also it can't be ignored that Lopez is the same age as Oden
and managed to play double the minutes Oden did by staying healthy and out of foul trouble.
I am the biggest Greg fan out there
but I need to see some positive output consistently from the guy before I will fully believe he is a potential star centre. No matter how you spin the stats (all 2 of them).
"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy
WHATEVER!!!!!
COMING BACK FROM MICROFRACTURE. PUTTING UP THE STATS HE DID AS A ROOKIE WHO ROLLED HIS ANKKLE THE FIRST GAME. (L*KERS OMG HIS CAREER IS OVER!!!!) CHECK BACK IN JANUARY WHEN IT’S ABOUT SIX MONTHS REMOVED FROM THE SURGERY THEN WE WILL TALK UNTIL THEN BE QUIET OR SPEND THE TIME RESEARCHING AMRE’S STATS!!!!!
AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
"No disrespect to Jeff Blake"
by Eat Politicians on Sep 27, 2009 4:45 AM PDT up reply actions
but why is the rum gone?
Come on you gotta listen unto me,
lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be. ~Johnny Cash
by HurraKane212 on Sep 28, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Go GO
The expectations on GO have been phenominal.Its tough when you are a #1 pick.I think that we need to get off the beat down GO train.For a rook with all the injury problams and the pressures for a very young kid,I think he did very well. Especielly considering his limited minutes.Yes he made a lot of rookie mistakes.Thats to be expected.However nobody wants to change that more than Oden.He has worked very hard with high praise from Bayno.I pity the fool who comes down the lane for a chippie this year.Can you say swatted like a fly.
by DowntownVinnie on Sep 27, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions
Nice update
I’m not sure exactly how to measure higher usage vs. percent effectiveness, so I’m not sure that what you are trying to prove can really be statistically proven. But it is evident that Greg was far more productive than he gets credit for, and that his potential is very high.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
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