Dave started an interesting discussion on the front page when he asked:

What one thing do the Blazers need in order to maximize their success this season?

The thing that is so encouraging about this team is that there were so many suggestions.  While most had to do with Greg Oden improving in one way or another, Blazer fans could come up with many things that could make this team much, much better than the team that won 54 games last year.

The eternal off-season drags on, so in an attempt to help eternity pass slightly more quickly, I thought it was time to list our reasons for optimism.

Cowardly disclaimers

Anyone who reads many of my comments knows I like disclaimers, so that I can always say, "Well, I said this wasn't a sure thing."  So we'll start with some disclaimers:

1. The only defense for injuries is depth, and with a roster limited to 15 men, and economic realities (including the salary cap) no team can stockpile enough talent to safeguard against injuries derailing a season.  There is no guarantee that injuries won't zap us hard this year.
2. No one can predict the future, so we are only dealing in probabilities and possibilities here.
3. None of the things that might happen below are guaranteed to happen.  Some of them are likely.  Some are unlikely.  Each one could happen, and if it did, it would help us.  The statistical probability of ALL of them happening is probably lower than the probability of some nutcase in Scotland ruling the world some day -- and we all know how probable that is.
4. Some of these are actually mutually exclusive.  It is probably not possible for Martell to have a breakout year, Nic to improve enough to earn 30 mpg, and Rudy to earn 30 mpg as well.
5. I will not attempt to place precise probabilities on each of these things. 

Probable Positives 

(More likely than not to happen)

Individual Players

1. Brandon Roy will not regress in his game, but rather stay the same or improve.  He's in his fourth year, healthy, and fit.  Some players do regress in his situation, but it is unlikely that he will do so.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge will not regress -- same reasons as Brandon.
3. Greg Oden will see at least marginal improvement in conditioning, agility, defending without fouling, and offensive effectiveness.  All of these should happen just by virtue of recovery from microfracture and an extra year of experience and coaching.
4. Joel Przybilla and Steve Blake may see reduced minutes, but are likely to provide similar productivity in their time on court.  These players are both consistent veterans in their prime, with games based on skill and technique more than on athleticism -- there is little reason to expect any real decline in their games this year.
5. Andre Miller is likely to fit in well enough to be a very significant upgrade over the Sergio/Jerryd combo at backup PG.
6. Andre Miller is likely to perform at a high enough level to take some minutes from Blake and give us higher productivity during those minutes.
7. The addition of Miller is also likely to mean that we are much less vulnerable to injury to our starting PG than we were last year, when we only managed 9-6 while Blake was out.
8. Nic Batum is likely to improve at least marginally as an all-round player and as an offensive threat.
9. Rudy Fernandez is likely to improve at least marginally after a year of learning the ropes, adjusting to culture shock, etc.
10. Martell Webster is likely to provide a positive contribution by the end of the season, if not sooner.

Team Considerations

1. It is probable that the coaching staff has learned some things and is progressing.
2. Because most of the players have not changed, there is likely to be greater offensive synergy as they are more aware of each other's tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses.  Because we have an unselfish team, this synergy will increase year to year as players are together.
3. Team defense is likely to improve this year due to increased strength as young players mature, increased experience, improving execution of coaching instructions (same personnel, again), greater familiarity with opponent offensive tendencies, and greater awareness of each other.  Note that every player except Steve and Joel should be expected to be better at carrying out his role within a team defense this year due to greater maturity, strength, and experience -- and Steve and Joel should not be any worse than last year.
4. Team confidence is likely to be much higher this year.  We aren't wondering at the start of the year whether or not we'll make the playoffs.  We know we are for real.  We won't have that "deer in the headlights" moment in the first home playoff game -- we know what we have to do now, and we know we can do it.  The "we are winners" mindset is contagious on a team, and it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
5. We will probably push the ball more and get at least a few more easy baskets per game.
6. Any injuries that keep a player out for less than 15 games are unlikely to significantly hamper us due to our tremendous depth.  Nate is likely to be able to "chop and change" with twin towers, small lineups, or whatever is needed sufficiently that we can withstand the loss of almost any player and still be competitive against most teams in the league.  We saw this last year when, even when Brandon went down, and with Martell out (our all-star and our other starting wing at the start of the season), we were able to go 2-2 against tough competition.  Even when LMA was out we were competitive against the best for one game.  This team is not worse than last year. 

These are all, in my opinion, probabilities.  It is very highly probable that enough of them happen to make us a significantly better team.  In fact, it is a virtual certainty that we will be a better team unless we suffer a significant (as in season-ending) injury to Brandon, LMA, or Greg.  The loss of Joel for much of the season would hurt badly if it happened, but it is likely that Greg's progress would significantly mitigate that loss, and the addition of Andre and progress of other players may well provide enough positive factors to fully negate it.

Real Possibilities 

(I am placing here things that may happen, but which I consider reasonable possibilities.  I do not consider them to be probable, but neither do I consider them unlikely.)

Individual Players

1. Brandon may improve still further offensively, as Andre creates opportunities for him to be even more effective, as he develops other facets to his game, and as the increased threat of other players makes him even more deadly.
2. Brandon may improve defensively as he has to carry less of the burden offensively.
3. LaMarcus may marginally improve as a low post defender and defensive rebounder.
4. Aldridge may become a greater scoring threat by taking the ball inside more, and possibly drawing a few more fouls as well.
5. Aldridge may become a significant threat on the fast break (we saw some of this near the end of last year).
6. Greg, instead of marginal improvement, may take a major step forward defensively, playing 25-28 mpg with significantly less foul trouble, patrolling the paint, blocking shots, and dominating the boards.
7. Greg may take a major step forward offensively by becoming a significant low post offensive threat, with one or two effective offensive moves developed over the summer.
8. Greg and/or Joel and/or LMA may become an offensive threat in the pick and roll with Andre.
9. Nic may take a major step forward offensively, averaging double digits in points and earning 30 mpg.
10. Martell may break out before the end of the season like many of us thought he would last year, shooting over 40% from 3 on 5-6 shots per game, with improved defense and aggressively taking the ball to the hoop.
11. Rudy may become a much more well-rounded offensive threat, knocking down mid-range jumpers and taking the ball to the hoop more often.
12. Rudy may become a better defender on and off the ball.
13. Steve may up his shooting and the rest of his game to the point where starting PG really is a difficult decision for Nate.
14. Travis may bring the rebounding the way he did in that one Houston game last year on an occasional basis, rather than once a year.
15. Travis may improve at taking the ball to the hoop occasionally, rather than settling for pull up jumpers all the time, thus improving his true shooting percentage and drawing more fouls.
16. Travis may improve marginally in his defensive rotations and on-the-ball defense.
17. One of Pendergraph, Cunningham, or Howard may provide an important contribution at some point in the season. 

Team Considerations

1. We may become a very effective running team, pushing the ball up court off of rebounds and blocked shots, and creating a lot of easy baskets.
2. The veteran experience of Miller and Howard, and the increased experience of the rest of the team, may bring a real improvement in handling difficult situations like back to backs on the road, tough games at tough opponents, bouncing back from tough losses to strong opponents, coping with injuries, etc.  These guys may help make us more "professional".  We may lose fewer games due to injuries this year.
3. We may really learn how to take advantage of our shotblockers in a team defensive scheme.
4. Our early schedule gives us a possible opportunity to go on a tear at the start of the season and establish ourselves as one of the unquestioned elites of the league, with possible benefits in confidence, respect from referees, etc.
5. Last year, our Pythagorean predicted wins based on point differential was two greater than our actual wins.  We actually underperformed in wins/losses last year by two wins.  We may match or even exceeded expected wins this year.

Note that we will probably be a better team even if none of the things on this second list (the Real Possibilities) comes into play.  And it is highly probable that at least some of the things on this list will happen, because most if not all of them are reasonable possibilities.

Unlikely, but Possible 

There are too many things here to list.  These are things that cannot really be expected, but are possible, and could have a significant impact on our fortunes if they do.  Travis could become a consistent rebounder or a lock-down defender (some may laugh, but he has the physical tools, and it is easier to learn to be a lockdown defender than a good help defender).  Rudy could be so good he wins Sixth Man of the Year.  Everything could click for Jerryd by mid-season and he becomes a major rotation player for us at the point.  Dante sets the world on fire, and takes Outlaw's minutes.  KP steals a starter quality PF from someone to back up LMA, or makes a blockbuster deal to bring us a top 5 PG, or something.  Martell knocks down 50% on threes, averages 15 ppg, and is a lock down defender, starting with game 1.  Nic shows that he is going to make everyone forget Tayshaun Prince.

Any of those things could happen, but they aren't the kind of thing that you expect or plan on happening.  We've got a great team without any of them -- but the fact that those possibilities are even out there, that KP actually has assets he could trade to pull off a blockbuster, that we have players with enough talent that we can even dream of such things, is just more reason for optimism, after the other reasons listed above.

Da BOM

This is a Blazer Optimist Manifesto -- "da BOM".  We are not blind optimists, us Blazer optimists.  We have sound reason to be optimistic.  All of our reasons for optimism may not pan out.  Life is like that.  But we have enough probable reasons to be optimistic, and enough other possibilities that could greatly help us, that for Blazer fans, optimism is the real realism.  It is far more realistic to expect this team to outperform last year's team than to expect it to underperform  last year's.  And last year, we tied for the second best record in the West.

This is not a prediction of post-season success.  You have to be fortunate with injuries to have post-season success, and unless you are dominant, you may need some luck with matchups as well.  Experience probably helps a little more in the post-season than in the regular season (though it helps in the regular season as well).  This team is still very young, and while much more experienced this year than last, still far more inexperienced than LA or the Spurs. 

This is, however, a recognition that in all probability, we have a great team this year.  Not good, not even very good (we were very good last year), but great.  We are one of the elites, one of the teams that people have to think about when they talk about teams that could win it all if they get some breaks.  They may not know it now, but by the end of this year, they will know it. 

We're ready to roll, and few teams that get in our path will come out with their ego unaffected and their losses column unchanged.