Webster was out, Batum was a rookie, etc. This is a new year, Roy is now playing at 206 lbs (not 215) So don’t assume the rotations will be identical to last year’s mix, etc

I think you are both right to an extent. In the past, I think Nate has been more reactive than proactive, in general. I think the three guard lineup last year was reactive, in response to Martell’s injury, but proactive, in the sense that Nate was going to go with it to some extent despite matchups.

But we’re entering a new phase. Our playoff spot is not really in doubt anymore. Instead of trying to survive, we’re one of the beasts of the West, and teams need to respond to what we are doing, rather than the other way around.

Nate saw last year that a three guard lineup could be very effective. It will be even more so if Oden is really a dominant force in the middle. I am not convinced he’s going to abandon it entirely, or only use it when other teams go small. He may well use it at times just to make the other team find a solution.

If we have a dominant defensive center, that will somewhat negate any mismatch problems, with the other team left struggling to negate our quickness advantage with three guards. And of course, if they go small too, most opponents won’t have three guards of the same quality as the ones we can put on the floor, and putting three guards out there means they have less help to try to hold down Greg and LMA inside.

Ultimately, we have an embarrassment of riches, in that we can create mismatches while giving up little to the other team.

And Nate doesn’t have to run a three guard lineup in response to another team doing so, either. Nic (and probably Martell, too) is fully capable of defending an opposing guard.

We’re going to be good enough this year that we don’t have to react to the other team, they have to figure out how to react to us.

offensively Roy plays PG most of the time when Blake is in the game, and that went pretty well. So I don’t think those stats are meaningful.

The stats I was referring to was when Roy was playing PG, not Blake. I know you think that since Brandon handles the ball a lot on offense that makes him the “functional” PG…but when Steve was in the game, the Blazer’s “PG” rating was much higher. Typically, Blake doesn’t get much credit for the way he gets the team into their halfourt sets and makes sure the other players are getting the ball in good positions to score. All everyone sees is Brandon in ISOs or P&Rs pounding the rock, so they think he’s got enough ball-handing skill to be a passable PG, but that’s only a part of the job description.

In the end, it doesn’t matter how much “we” like Blake, since Nate and Brandon’s feelings about Steve haven’t changed over the summer. Miller is going to demand 30 mpg by his play in camp and preseason, and Blake won’t give up the rest of the PG minutes to Bayless or any hybrid guard combo. Rudy’s chief competition for PT will be Batum and Webster, and may the best man who will help the team win games in the short and long term get the lion’s share of the available wing minutes

Truth is that with Blake playing significant minutes, this team will not win a playoff series

you need to define “signficant minutes” I made a similar comment about Blake as a starting PG following the playoffs, and I was making proposals for the Blazers to upgrade the starting PG position since last winter. But I’ve also maintained that Steve will be one of the best backup PGs in the league, and that Nate/Brandon/KP really like him, and that I expect SB to be extended and not dealt before his contract expires next July.

As far as Rudy and Roy “meshing” as a backcourt, the ‘08-09 stats revealed that neither played the PG that well, and the aquisition of Miller tells me that the Blazer’s brass were pretty sure that Roy/Rudy wouldn’t be a viable backcourt combo for at least the next 2 years

Rudy is a really good player, but he plays behind Roy at SG. For Rudy to “progress” as an NBA star, he’s going to need to play more SG minutes than will be available for him in Portland, unless Brandon gets injured. As much as folks try to move Roy around to PG or SF to make more “room” for Rudy to play in Portland, the fact remains that he and Roy will always defend NBA 2-guards the best,. Neither player is going to get “bigger” to defend SFs regularly and neither player has a PG’s mentality—nor should they have to start thinking “pass first”—they’re scoring guards who can effectively put the ball in the basket in different ways.

I think that it will be in Rudy’s best interest to eventually play for another NBA team. Not because I dislike him, he’s a great player with a great personality—who can not like Rudy? I just see the PT conflict at the SG position as being impossible to resolve, and any attempt to “circumvent” the issue will just lead to frustration for the team and Fernandez. I know Portland’s management thinks highly of Rudy and they’ll need to be blown away with a trade offer before they’ll deal him away, but that offer should come as he improves and another NBA team has an opening at SG and has a player that KP really likes, in return. How soon this will happen I have no idea, but I’ve put the timeline during the next 15-21 months, as an estimate

I don’t know if you remember Drazen Petrovic, but the Blazers were in a similar conundrum back in 1990, with Petro not getting enough PT playing behind Clyde Drexler at SG. Drazen went to New Jersey and became an NBA all-star, and I can see Rudy’s career path needing to make the same kind of “transition” before he gets the opportunity to really shine