Repost: Let 'em Foul Out
I posted this in Jan 2007 when there were fewer BlazersEdge followers. Thought I'd post it again to get new opinion.
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I've never coached and my playing days went no further than park leagues and pickups, so maybe I'm missing something here. But . . . it seems illogical and counterproductive to bench starters when they pick up a second foul three minutes into the game, a third foul early in the second quarter, etc., etc. Here's four reasons why:
- Unless the coach has a crystal ball, he doesn't know how many minutes he can get out of a starter with fouls. How often have we seen a key player `in foul trouble' end the game with only four fouls and ten minutes less than ideal playing time?
- A two point bucket is worth two points. It doesn't matter whether those two points come in the last minute of the game or the first minute of the second quarter. Why `save' the production of key starters until late in the game? (I know, late game pressure introduces another factor here.) It always tougher to play from behind, but when a key player `gets into foul trouble' NBA coaches seem willing to play even or from behind in the hopes they can pull it out in the last five minutes. Why not keep the heavy artillery in there and make the other team play from behind and pull it out? Get those buckets, steals, rebounds, etc. as early as you can and put the pressure on the other guys.
- How can a coach urge aggressive defense when a player knows he'll get penalized (benched) for being too aggressive and picking up a couple of cheap fouls?
- A winning basketball strategy is partly about setting the agenda and controlling the game. Why cede that control to the refs or opposing team and allow them to disrupt your game plan, interrupt a player's rhythm, and potentially reduce playing time of your best players?
Michael Lewis, in his book Moneyball, had some examples of playing baseball `by the book' that are statistically illogical. His conclusion, as I recall, is that baseball managers don't want to be second guessed when they ignore `the book' and lose. Sure, if a key player fouls out it will sometimes happen in a game you lose. But you're also going to lose games when you bench players with foul trouble. My vote: let logic rule.
Or . . . maybe it's as magic man Dai Vernon said: "The mind is led on, step by step, to defeat it's own logic." Maybe I'm missing the magic.
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I'm very much in favor of being more "risky" with stars in foul trouble
Its a pet peeve of mine that coaches limit a guy’s minutes due to foul trouble, only for them to end up with 4 fouls and having played fewer minutes than the coach would have liked. A rec for you.
especially since
superstars get far fewer fouls called on them than regular players. That goes for Roy and hopefully in the future Oden
by GreatOden'sRaven on Sep 21, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree completely
If Greg gets his fifth foul half way through the 4th, leave him in there! Whats the point of putting him on the bench?
"What I'm not looking for is, uh, some big overgrown monster that's always thinkin' about food."
by Starvin' Marvin on Sep 21, 2009 3:33 PM PDT reply actions
It would take some training of the players.
I think players would naturally become more passive as they pick up fouls so they can “live” longer in the game. Their effectiveness would decline if they picked up their fourth foul in the first half. In that case a more aggressive bench player may actually be better than the starter, os you might as well sit the player who’s picked up the fouls.
Of course that happens to a degree already when coaches leave players in and risk them picking up their third foul in the first quarter, but I think it’s this effect they’re trying ot moderate.
Players would have to learn to play with the same energy level despite their foul situation, and I don’t think that’ll happen.
I remember the post
And still agree with you today
Numerically Blazers Edge is #25
by Outlaw is Rejector on Sep 21, 2009 6:27 PM PDT reply actions
billy beane traded andre ethier for milton bradley
that proves moneyball is stupid.
game set match
dinasour type of guys choir boys
Especially with Greg last season, it seemed like his minutes were artificially limited by foul trouble when Nate wasn’t going to play him at the end, anyways. I felt Nate was way too traditional and conservative in that respect. This season, I suspect Greg is going to show his value at the end of games, and it will matter more that he hasn’t fouled out at the end. As for other players, as long as they are bench players I don’t see the point of pulling them for foul trouble, usually. Although if Nate can’t go to Outlaw at the end of the game he might freak out or something. (Can you tell I am not that enthusiastic about Outlaw?)
Greg NEEDS to foul out
is a point I’ve made previously.
Not that I want that to it be a regular practice, and I understand the traditional “Protection” measures to keep key match-ups and lineups available for later in the game, but it is “use it or lose it” so you don’t get any bonus points on a loss for having a couple of leftover fouls after the game. Got made at Nate a few times last year for that; first Greg wastes a few fouls, then Nate wastes a few fouls. ugh.
But, why does he NEED to foul out. Greg needs to learn the sorrow of having to sit and watch, not because Nate pulled him, but because he couldn’t control his own twitchs, grabs or shoves; because Greg took himself out of the game he can’t blame anybody except that guy in the mirror. Even better if they lose a close game. It needs to burn.
Nate does protect him too much and just needs to let him run, its not like he can’t turn to Joel. He needs to learn. Sometimes he does need a little protection from a jerk calling several fouls in a row, but Nate could give him a quick minute break, tell him what he needs to change, and send him right back in. That’s how he’ll learn and take it to heart.
Looked for and could not find how many foul-outs Greg actually had last year… I’m thinking it wasn’t very many.
I believe it was something like
4 times in the regular season and 1 time in the playoffs
I wish I spent more time playing catch with you and less time training my body and mind to kill you...
Are Foul-Outs an unofficial stat
that they blow up after the season? I can’t find any info online.
Is there a NBA stat fanatic blog anywhere that has foul-out numbers?
BTW: are badgers related to bedgers?
the best I could find
was the game log here. I just tallied all the 6’s. Oh, before I forget, badgers are like the plaster gnomes in the collective bedgers’ yard
I wish I spent more time playing catch with you and less time training my body and mind to kill you...
That'll do Babe, thanx
At least they have the right colors…
http://www.gnomefrenzy.com/university-of-wisconsin-garden-gnome.html
W=FTW
by Sashland on Sep 24, 2009 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like it but
players target those who get in foul trouble. They see a chance to take someone out and got for it. Should players like GO know how to stay out of trouble yes and during regular season go for it good practice. This cannot happen in the playoffs by any means. I can see it know GO gets 5 in the 3rd and they gun straight for him in the 4th he gone then pryz comes in nice well roy then rudy well miller the blake then batum/webster wll you get the point lets just keep LA well veteran backup pf ok good idea. I love being a blazer fan
You're probably right but...
While players target other players in foul trouble, refs tend to go more lenient towards players in foul trouble. They don’t want to send someone out of the game on a ticky-tacky foul.
But overall the effect may be detrimental to have a player in who is in foul trouble. First the player will adjust his play to avoid more fouls. Second the other team will try to take advantage of the foul trouble by pushing agressively at the more passive player. So it depends on how bad the backup is. In Greg’s case, we have a great backup so there’s no reason not to replace him.
On the other hand I’ve never understood the early benching. Bench a player after 3rd or 4th foul. Let him play until them. They’ll still be available when you need them, especially considering Nate’s fixed rotations.
There is that, but
if a coach has the propensity to bench his players after quick or early fouls opposing players will still target them. We saw this a lot last season. Our opponents were taking the ball at Greg early to try to draw those first two fouls quickly in order to get him off the floor.
I wish I spent more time playing catch with you and less time training my body and mind to kill you...
Two great points above...
I’ve been an advocate of keeping Greg on the floor for his full shift, regardless of fouls, and I think you are right on here: if it’s true that coaches and players will target a player who has 5 fouls to get him out of the game, certainly those same coaches and players could see Greg sitting on the bench with early fouls, and make that a key part of their strategy: get to Greg early.
I guess I believe that Nate should just stick to the rotation (for Greg) regardless of fouls. Greg needs time on the court. He’s allotted 6 fouls – let’s use ’em! Which line would you rather see:
Player Mins Pts Reb Ast Blks Fouls
Oden 30 17 13 3 3 6
or
Player Mins Pts Reb Ast Blks Fouls
Oden 18 10 8 1 1 5
?
Blazers: RUN away with the title!
KP: Please don't trade the next decade's Scottie Pippen (Batum), Spanish Larry Bird (Rudy), Bill Russell (GO) or Captain BRoy - at least until they 3-peat..
I could be wrong, but...
I wouldn’t be surprised if refs were more inclined to call fouls on players with a reputation for fouling out. Perception is reality, in this case. The history confirms the suspicion: “Was that a foul that Oden committed? I’m not sure, but since he’s fouled out of a dozen games so far this season, it seems pretty likely.” Tweeeeeeeeet!
What I was thinking as well
If a player has a rep of being foul prone, then the refs are going to scrutinize their play far more closely.
That being said, I still think it is a good idea for players, especially foul prone players like Greg, to foul out occasionally. Think of it as NBA tough love.
by DonkeyShins on Sep 25, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Seth made a good point
other players will attack someone in foul trouble. Coaches pull a guy with 2 early fouls so he doesn’t end up with a 3rd in the first quarter.
I would like to add that I’m in favor of protecting a player in the first half, but less inclined to do the same in the 2nd half. I think in the 2nd half you just play the normal rotation even if guys have some foul trouble.
Finally, it also depends on the player, his style and how important he is to the team. We want to save Roy for the 4th quarter so you take him out of the game. Centers need to be free to defend the paint without worrying about getting called for a foul. It’s much easier to score on a big man when he’s worried about picking up a 3rd foul in the 2nd quarter. On the flip side, a guy like Batum can stay in the game with foul trouble. We’ve got backups for him, we don’t rely on him to score in crunch time and it’s not going to hurt team/fan morale if he’s on the bench.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
I like this answer
it all depends on the situation and so on.
I do think Greg should have been allowed to foul more because you KNEW he wouldn’t be playing in the fourth quarter and he might have actually found a groove.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
USA Camp improvement: "but as a whole, he stayed out of foul trouble"
Makes the point elsewhere that last year Greg was using his hands because he did not have conditioning fully back and was a step slow. Now the report is just a half-step slow, on occasions, during a dominating performance on D. Maybe fouls will be less of an issue if this growth continues.
“Two weeks ago, Greg participated in a USA Basketball Mini-Camp event, held in Las Vegas. Playing against the best young talent in the NBA, Greg more than held his own. There were several occasions where he still looked a half step slow, but as a whole, he stayed out of foul trouble (the practices and scrimmage were officiated), and rebounded and defended very well.
Although it was Kevin Durant who would grab most of the headlines, the coaches and staff were generally very complimentary about Greg’s performance.
Descriptive words such as “very good”, “balanced” and “quickness” were used freely to describe his play. Jerry Colangelo reported that he’s “got a future in the NBA and maybe a future with us (meaning the USA Olympic squad)” but added that he still had work to do.
Coach Jay Triano had nothing but praise for Greg, saying, “Oden was the surprise of the practice. He shut down everything inside.”
Tweets from the sessions included the following:"
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/228516-the-case-of-the-misunderstood-manchild
I remember this..
Funny… but I do remember this post from back then. I think it’s an original idea, and a good challenge to the norm of coaching. As a coach at the JV level, I won’t take a player out early… unless I think he is really putting on a hack fest and is playing out of control and, thus, hurting the team. It seems that whenever I give the warning to a player that he’s got 2 or 3 fouls in the first half, he re-focuses his play and avoids further foul trouble. I’ve never automatically benched a player that reaches a certain amount of fouls early in the game. It stunts our flow in the game, and takes them out of the crucial parts of the end of the first half.
My approach to foul trouble developed from a year as an assistant coach for the varsity team. We were in the league championship tournament and our two best players were in early foul trouble. We had previously beaten this team by 25 points, and they somehow played very close with us from the start. Our go-to players picked up 2 early fouls each, and we had them on the bench as soon as that happened. While they sat, the other team built a sizable lead, and we could never recover. Both players lost their cool and eventually fouled out. The time they spent early in the game on the bench was the point in the game we were beaten. I realized later on that we reacted too quickly and didn’t put enough value on the middle portion of such a crucial game. We were caught up in the idea that you have to save your best players for the end of the game. You certainly need to exercise a moderate level of conservative methods… but at some point you just need to go for it, put forth some trust, and allow your best players to play. I have often found that they change their approach to the game and settle in when you put the pressure on them to play with more control.
Certainly, the JV game is hardly comparable to the NBA with it’s time length and intensity… but it’s still the game of basketball, and the forward, progressive approaches to the game are what separates the contenders from the pretenders. This topic is relevant to the Blazers because of the foul trouble they had with Oden last year, where he was being pulled very early in the game and could never mentally adapt to its flow. Since Portland has adequate insurance in Joel Przybilla, why act with such haste? I’d allow him to use up to 4 fouls in the first half, provided he is playing well and is in the flow of the game. Joel can play a solid 20-25 minutes… and more, if necessary. Loosen the reigns on Oden and let him play. He should be averaging no less than 30 mpg this year. If he can’t end the game because he’s fouled out, so what? Show some trust in Oden… allow him to grow up this year.
in support of your post
I’ve seen NBA players pulled out and they lost their groove and seemed jagged. They’d go back into the game and simply foul again.
I think it’s all a judgment call at the time but coaches shouldn’t be afraid to go against the grain from time to time if they think it’s best.
"Fernandez, to my eyes, is the Blazer who walks that walk most comfortably. A lot of Portland's fans (egged on, dare I say, by their local broadcasters) lament things like how Ron Artest or Yao Ming get to hit Brandon Roy's arms.
But I suspect Fernandez sees all that and thinks: We get to hit arms! Cool!"
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-135/On-Playoff-Experience.html
I think this has merit within limits
I’ll just say this, though. You don’t want Joel to play the entire second half, right? So if Greg is hacking away, you need to get him out of there soon enough that he’ll have some time to spell off Joel in the second half.
Also, you need to recognize that fouls can be mostly a mental issue, and that sometimes taking a guy out can break the mental cycle. For whatever reason, he wasn’t properly in the game mentally, so get him out of there and give him a chance to re-focus while he still has some fouls left.
In other words, I’m not sure there is one right answer to this question.
"if Nate has Roy or Miller in the game at all times, that stagnation will turn into conflagration" -- two4larue
Agreed; I posted re/ this myself last season
Again and again, GO would get two quick ones, sit forever, then get back in the game only to immediately pick up #3. He’d never get a rhythm or become effective, and he’d end the game with a foul or two to burn. How dumb is that? Especially when you have arguably the best back-up center in the league in Joel. As I said in my post, the 8 fouls those two possess are like money in the bank—money that you lose if you don’t spend it. Why hoard it? That seems pathological to me.
Sure, once in a blue moon you’d lose a game down the stretch because both your centers have fouled out. But as things stand, the Blazers lose games in the 2nd & 3rd quarters because they’ve let the refs’ quick whistles totally waste the asset of Greg Oden. As you suggest, in this case “playing by the book” allows a coach to cover his behind, but it doesn’t win more games. On the contrary.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
This reminds me of the statistical argument for hardly ever punting on 4th down in football games
Though the case isn’t as black-and-white as that, the strongest similarity is that coaches have incentive to not deviate from the norm – “the nail that sticks up gets hammered down” and all that.
I like the idea, especially for someone like Greg who is going to improve, but as others have said sometimes it makes a player a target on defense, and it depends on how they react psychologically and if they’re in a groove (like if they are already playing badly a break is probably a good thing).
Good issue to bring back up though, and probably underutilized. Rec for you sir.
You can measure skill and talent with your eyes, but productivity is shown through statistics.
One thing you'd have to look at is the opponent
Do you need to pace your centers so as to keep them in the game against a top opposing center? If you’re up against Shaw / Howard / Duncan / Yao — or even Nene the Blazer killer — you really don’t want to leave yourself without a big man to cover them every minute, especially at the end.
If you’re playing a mid-level team that’s good at center but not going to challenge you for 48 minutes like, say, Miami / Atlanta / Milwaukee / NJ, then maybe you want to go for it and use up all your Gregzilla minutes.
I'm amazed
Wow, I don’t think anybody has made a persuasive argument for pulling a player with two quick fouls. I am beginning to buy into the idea that coaches don’t want to deviate from the norm. But Nate seems secure enough in his position that he’d buck the trend if he believed it would help win a game. Wouldn’t he?

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