FanShot

A pretty gloomy standings prediction using Win Shares

Basketball-Reference using the Win Shares method to project performance of all players and adding those wins up for the teams they are on. It doesn't look very good for Portland, coming in at 44.6 wins and 8th in the West. But all teams tend more towards the mean with no team winning more than 52 and no team winning less than 29, so the spread should be larger in real life. In the East most notably Toronto and Indiana fare much better than most fans and pundits would predict, with Miami having another abysmal season that would certainly cause Wade to ponder his alternatives. Also the projections for the individual players are interesting (and likely somewhat off): Miller becomes the third best player on the team. While still in the top 5 Oden doesn't improve his Win Shares, he even regresses a bit. Nicolas is in the top 5, better than Travis and Rudy and everyone else. Martell is as low as Howard only playing 670 minutes. And so on.

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