FanPost

Oden PER Jump

Hollinger has Oden's PER increasing by about one point.  "Trending Up: Greg Oden. Last season: 18.13, PER 2009-10 projection: 19.11 PER."  Looking at the history of PER jump from rookie year to 2nd year for a bunch of noteworthy big men, the average 2nd year PER jump is 2.5.  This would take Oden's PER to over 20 (20.63).  This would be better than Dwight Howard's 2nd year PER.

There typically is a jump in scoring from rookie to 2nd year when looking on a per 36 minute basis.  For example, Howard went from 13.2 pts/36 minutes to 15.4, while Yao Ming went from 16.7 to 19.1.  These are increases of 2.2 and 2.4, respectively.  If you add the 2.3 average to Oden's rookie year number, you go from 14.8 to 17.1.  So it's not unreasonable to think that Oden would score 17 points if he plays full starter minutes.

As far as rebounding, Oden is already a phenomemal offensive rebounder.  His got 4.6 o-rebounds per 36 last year.  He also had 7.0 d-rebounds per 36, for a total of 11.6.  Howard increased his d-rebounds by 1.5 per 36 in his second year.  Such an increase would take Oden to 8.5 d-rebounds and 13.1 total rebounds per 36.  If Oden increases his d-rebounds to Pryzbilla's level (9.5 per 36), it would add another 1.0, for a total of 14.1 rebounds.

So Greg could be a 17/13 player is he plays 36 minutes!

Oden's big challenge will be staying on the court, given his foul problems last year.  This should improve with experience and being in better shape.  If he plays 30 minutes, the 17/13 scales to 15/11.

I am going into this season quite optimistic that Oden "surprises" us with what is perceived to be a breakout year.  He might be a candidate for most improved, if he lives up to these figures, which are based upon historical trends on top of his rookie year performance. 

He might even make a bigger jump than the averages used in this analysis.  Some players do: it's the nature of averages.  Two factors supporting a greater jump are 1) Greg will be in better shape and one more year removed from microfracture surgery, and 2) Andre Miller and his ability to get big men the ball in scoring position.  If he does this, the Blazers are deep into the playoffs!!!

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