Bayless Bashing and Miller Myth-Busting

I broke ya in two

(to paraphrase Tom Petty)

need minutes to develp a cerebral game. it wasn’t just that andre had the right coach in college, he had the opportunity to develp his game on the court. bayless will be expected to develop in practice. he’s not going to see the real court for the next 2 years unless we let blake walk after next season. practice is great for working on your jumpshot (which he still needs) but its tough to improve your feel for the game as a point guard in practice. plus, nate mcmillian as a professional coach cares about w’s. not the development of his 3rd string pg. he’s no rick majerus in that regard. of course, we have guys like monty williams, I just hope bayless continues to stay “coachable.”

Innate talent and aptitude, by definition, are not learned, but otherwise humans are highly adaptable. Jerryd’s learning curve applies here—how much time does it look like it is going to take? We’ve got some time now that we have Andre.

There are two paths for Jerryd and I think Miller’s presence is pivotal in which road he takes…

1. He can be a typical, cocky NBAer, see his peers like Rose putting up big numbers and making big dollars on their second deal, and demand a trade for greener pastures where he can get his PT, a la Sergio.

2. He can take Miller’s presence as the best thing that ever happened to him, spend a couple years (his de facto college Junior and Senior seasons) watching film over his shoulder and really learning the craft, and then actually being READY at the appropriate juncture.

It will take a very special person not to chose the quick path to fame and fortune. Andre Miller had 5 years after HS to learn the craft and a rookie year in the NBA to find his footing. Bayless is an ENORMOUSLY GREAT physical specimen and quite intelligent. But he needs to somehow fight against the pull of gravity for a couple years to pull this thing off.

He’ll either be a very rich, mediocre combo guard fast; or a very rich, terrific PG slow.

It is his choice, ultimately.

Chauncy Billups is a good example of someone that was able to morph into a good point guard. The problem is that Billups was able to start/play a lot of minutes on some crappy teams for about 3-5 years, before he became a good point guard. IF Bayless got those minutes and had the will he could do the same thing. The problem is that those minutes aren’t available here, and his blaming the turnovers on team mates in summer legue make me doubt that he’ll be able to do it here. That is why I suggest we include him in a consolidation trade. I don’t doubt he has talent, I doubt he’ll become what the Blazers need in the next 2-3 years.

I’m only down on Bayless right now because he sucks at what we need him to do.

Sure, he could be the next vet. point guard everyone tries to get for their championship run. It is just so hard to tell with PG prospects whether they will pan out or not.

One thing is for sure, I think it is a good idea to try and grow a young PG. I can’t think of anyone better for that than Bayless. Ride the pine and keep practicing, you aren’t good enough yet.

So for now, I happy to have him, though not happy to see him get real minutes on the court outside of blowouts.

We could probally get Tyrus Thomas straight up for him.

To excel at the nba level a player must have advantages in both nature and nurture. Natural gifts include both physical and mental attributes.

There is no argument that with hard work a player can maximize his potential. This can even happen mid-career. A marginal player can work himself across the threshold to become a star, provided his ceiling is high enough, which is to say that he has the requisite natural abilities and takes advantage of his strengths.

I believe that natural gifts, by virtue of being natural, are clearly visible after physical maturation and a few years of organized ball. Bayless clearly displays strength, quickness, hops, body control, determination, a workable jumper, and beautiful ability finish at the rim.

His ability to get to the rim will probably earn him enough time in the league to figure out how to serviceably run an offense. I think he will be able to recognize and exploit mismatches. I think he will develop a feel for when to push the ball and when to set up the offense.

But I don’t think he will ever be known for his uncanny court vision.

I said that the day we drafted him and I was hopeful he could do it for us. But I think there is a very low probability he can learn to be a point guard sitting on the bench and not playing. As Nate has said repeatedly, he makes poor judgements with the ball on whether to attack or to pass. He commits too early before he sees what the defense is giving him. It isn’t about his poor shooting, he can learn that in practice. It isn’t about his poor defense, which appears to be mostly from being overly rookie aggressive. It’s about his feel for the game and the judgements he makes, and I don’t think that can be learned by watching or even in practice against your own players who will seldom be going all out in the relatively few scrimmages the team has once the season starts.

Unless there are injuries Rex should get less quality playing time this year behind Blake and Miller than he did last year behind Blake and Sergio. He got two extended opportunities last year to beat our Sergio and failed twice, which says a lot about how much he has to learn. I still think he could learn to be a point guard, but I don’t think it will happen here.

At this point I’m fine if we hang on to him, or fine if we can package his salary with another asset to make a desirable trade, but I think the best thing for him would be to get traded to a bad team where he could at least get regular backup minutes. I would be amazed, given his nature, if he isn’t asking for a trade (probably not publicly) before the year is out.

can reluctantly learn to play the point, but in the long run it will be wasted energy because that’s not what he wants to do. That’s not who he is. That’s not what gives him joy and motivation. Few of us excel doing what we dislike.

Same thing for LMA. He doesn’t enjoy physical play. That’s not who he is. That’s not what gives him joy and motivation. Few of us excel doing what we dislike.

Whenever he plays extended minutes I see more positives than negatives.

BECAUSE I SAID SO

That’s going to be about half the posts on this thread.

doesn’t mean Bayless can learn PG skills.

Of course, it also doesn’t mean he can’t. For me, the real question is, in his heart of hearts, does he want to be a true PG, or is he doing it because his hand is forced by the situation? If his heart isn’t into becoming a serious PG as it’s own end, then I fear he won’t do much more than tread water.

“You can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear” (I apologize that I’ve used this one before)

There are certain traits that I believe are innate and while they can be developed and honed somewhat, they are largely hardwired. The ability to see the floor, see the plays while—or even before— they develop, and being quick minded enough to make lightening decisions based on what is observed are a couple of these. Being a super-athletic player does not automatically translate into being able to develop these abilities if they are missing from the get-go.

Bill Walton, Larry Bird, Brandon Roy are three players that come to mine that possess/ed those abilities in spades. There are many others too who had them to a good degree like Magic and Kidd. I don’t think we’ve seen any signs what-so-ever of these qualities in Bayless. Which leads to the next addage:

“If the horse is dead, get off.”

 I’m taking about the point guard horse here, and not to give up generally on Jerryd. Since he doesn’t appear to have a slot on our current team, I’d like to see us showcase his talents as a scorer to prepare for a a trade. Unfortunately, unless an injury occurs, we don’t appear to have any more room for him as a short scorer than we do as a PG.

What to do? Hang on to him and let him ride the bench until he becomes disgruntled, which I’m almost sure he will? Why am I that sure? Well, criticizing his team-mates after S.L., the horrible sour-puss grump he was on draft night, his somewhat caustic attitude toward the media, and a VERY LARGE “BAYLESS” tattooed across his back are traits that are probably not conducive to being a happy-camper bench rider.

Dime: Other than the Andre Miller thing, have you been following the NBA offseason moves?
JB: Not really. The only thing I’m worried about is me, and getting more minutes next year.

I don’t even care if he turns into a monster on someone else’s team. I just don’t like his personality and short arms.

It’s possible to be very committed and driven to succeed without being a grump with a constant scowl. Please.

He played. Lots. Where is Bayless going to find minutes. While I like him more than Blake, the presence of Miller makes Bayless superfluous. Outside of garbage minutes where he can by himself maybe make a game that was out of hand close (& I mean both positively and negatively,) when is he going to play? Miller averaged over 30 minutes a game his whole career. He got to learn on the job. Had Bayless shined at point during the summer league, maybe we take a shot at Odom and address power forward instead of point. Clearly, the Blazer’s management valued a point guard more. One thing is for sure, Bayless ain’t gonna get any better riding the pine.

That’s pretty impressive as a frosh PG. Most elite college PGs don’t average much more than 6 assists in 30+ minutes.

I probably wouldn’t use Miller as an example of a point guard who learned to be one. Seems like he had the vision and playmaking skills even as a freshman. He further refined it in college.

For me the facts as you have presented them are compelling and I was already pre-disposed to being patient with Jerryd.

After your reasoned responses and inspired by Norsktroll’s work I ran a comparison with 4 rookie point guards from last year. All are one and done except George Hill (3 or 4 years college?). Eric Gordon and Derrick Rose were drafted well ahead of Bayless and Hill well behind but all are 1st rounders 2008.

I will not attempt to argue these comparisons except to note that Bayless was better in TS% than I expected and that on a 36 minute basis is comparable. If anything the advanced statistics comparison seems to refute the claim that he is useless. For some, any attempt to present meaningful comparisons or reasoned response is baseless tripe or an exceptionally foolhardy, dangerous mindset. You have already devastated these arguments above so I stand applauding your excellent and masterful job.