Sched Ahead -- Preseason Edition

For many readers of Bedge, the Sched Ahead posts are familiar territory, but we have new members who will need some explanation, so you will have to bear with me while I give some background.

Sched Ahead History

The genesis of the Sched Ahead threads arose out of a fanpost by upper left corner.  In it, he discussed four different categories of games.  I had always thought of a schedule in terms of these same kinds of games, and so I decided to work up a spreadsheet that would analyze the remaining games on our schedule (and the schedules of our rivals) accordingly.  Thus, began the "Sched Ahead" updates. 

As an additional bonus, I threw in the "jscot Stupid Sched Projections."  These are called stupid because they are, well, stupid.  But they became very popular.  Why should something which is stupid become popular?  Don't ask me.  Ask the politicians, they specialize in this stuff.

There will be no Stupid Sched Projections in this preseason edition, because Stupid Sched Projections are (stupidly) based on the assumption that you will continue to win each type of game at the same rate you have already won that type of game this season.  To try to do a Stupid Sched Projection at this point would necessitate dividing by zero, since we haven't played any games.  Dividing by zero is stupid.  I knew that even before my spreadsheet said so.

First Sched Ahead fanpost.

Last Sched Ahead fanpost.

Last Stupid Projection update.

If you want to read them all, click on my name, choose blog, and work your way through.  I don't know why anyone would, but there you are, the Internet is great for providing ways to find info that no one would want.

Summary Info

Four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The top contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Who is a Winning Team?

For purposes of this analysis, I'm going to use the final record of last season to determine who is a winning team.  A .500 team is considered to be a winning team.  I recognize this is imperfect, but there is no perfect way to go about this.  Even during the season, as teams move back and forth across the .500 threshold, this analysis changes the way it rates games against them.  But one cannot make an exact science out of what is, in effect, a prediction/projection tool, anyway.  We are dealing in probabilities here, and we have a relatively small sample with which to work.

The editors of this fanpost (that's me, but it somehow sounded more regal or something to say "editors") are fully aware that Phoenix or Houston or Philadelphia or Miami, for instance, could slip into the morass of a losing season if things go poorly for them.  Conversely, a miracle of Memphis could occur and all of their talents could become team players and they could make a run at a winning season.  Far more likely, Detroit finds a way to put together a winning season.  But for this analysis, we'll use last year's records.

We will also assume that the teams we need to watch in regard to the playoff battle this year are the same as last year:  Portland, and then in alphabetical order, Dallas, Denver, Houston, L@kers, N.O., Phoenix, S.A., & Utah.

An Unbalanced Schedule

Because there are 30 teams in the league and 82 games on the schedule, it is mathematically impossible to have a perfectly balanced schedule.  Western teams play a tougher schedule than Eastern teams, because there are more winning teams in the West.  Losing teams play a tougher schedule because they have to play every single winning team, and there is one losing team they don't get to play at all.  Winning teams get an easier schedule because they get to play every single losing team, and they don't have to play one of the winning teams at all.  If you do not understand why this is so, perhaps it will come to you later.  I do know that when a coach says that his team "beat themselves", it doesn't change this fact of life.

The unbalance comes in that each team plays teams from the other conference two times, teams in their division four times, and the other teams in their conference either three or four times.  Each team will have four conference rivals that they only play three times, and the rest they will play four times.  Of the teams which they play three times, against two of them they will have two away and one home, with two home and one away against the remaining two.

PLEASE GET THIS POINT!!!

Before we go any further, remember this.  There will not be overwhelming differences between schedules.  A better team is going to finish ahead of a weaker team.  But playoff seeding may come down to a single game, so relatively small differences in schedule difficulty can have a disproportionate impact.

Three Game Rivals

The following table shows which teams each of the nine playoff rivals will play three times, and whether they have two home games or two away games against those teams.

Advantage Portland.  Every other team had winnable games disappear from their schedule due to only playing a weak team three times.  For instance, Utah had two road games that should have been pretty easy to win go away, because they only get Memphis and Sacramento once on the road, and they also only get the Warriors once at home.  On the other hand, we managed to dump road games at L.A. and S.A. without picking up a loss.  From this perspective, we have a marginal advantage here.

Also notable:  if we "hold serve" in our home games against L.A. and S.A., we win any playoff tiebreaker with those two teams, as far as seeding is concerned.

Types of Differences in Schedule Difficulty

I will look at the following categories of differences:

1. Comparative difficulty of Road Games
2. Comparative difficulty of Home Games
3. Back to Back Games
4. Opponent Back to Backs (how often we play opponents when they are on the second of a back to back)

I have not looked at 3 games in 4 nights, 4 games in 5, etc.  This data is available from NBAStuffer, if anyone cares.  I am not persuaded that these are significantly more difficult for experienced players than back to backs.  Since teams started flying on private jets, there's a pretty small sample size.  Last year, we went into the toughest place to play in the league on the fourth in five nights, without either of our starting forwards, and almost got a win.

Comparative Difficulty of Road Games

Due to the schedule imbalance noted above, where all of our 3-game rivals are winning teams, we see an advantage here.  Note that last year, we won 15 of 19 Cat 3 games, and only 5 of 22 Cat 4 games, and you can see that it is much to our advantage to have more games in Cat 3, and fewer in Cat 4.  Utah and San Antonio have a disadvantage here, due to the quality of the teams they have to play in their road games.  Last year, we played three games against Dallas, Houston, Sacramento, and Golden State.  Isn't it nice to have a fourth game against the Kings and Warriors rather than against the L@kers and Spurs?

Comparative Difficulty of Home Games

Last year, at home against winning teams we went 16-6, against losing teams we went 18-1.  Hopefully, we will do even better against winning teams this year, but it is still an advantage to have more home games against losing teams.  Houston's schedule is the worst on this factor, while San Antonio and Portland have the best schedule here. 

Note that both home and away, we tie for the best schedule as far as how many games against winning teams.  Combined?

Last year, we played 44 against winning teams and 38 against losing teams.

Back to Back Games

This table shows how many back to back games each team plays this year, and the categories into which the second game of the back to back falls.  Reminder, Cat4 is Rocky Road, Cat3 is Banana Peel Road, Cat2 is Jawbreaker Home, and Cat1 is Cream Puff Home.

Notable -- while the number of back to backs we play is near the middle, if slightly low, a high percentage (60%) of our road back to backs are against losing teams (Cat 3 Banana Peel Road).  I am not sure if this is good or bad.

Last year, we were highly successful against losing teams when on the road -- but we didn't have to play them on back to backs very often.  These games are winnable, and having them be back to back could cost us some wins on games that could be winnable.  On the other hand, since only 6 of our 21 Cat 4 (Rocky Road) are back to backs, we may be able to perform better than last year.

That is hard, though.  Historically, 50 win (or better) teams only win 25% of their road games against other 50 win teams.  If they are on a back to back, that drops to 21%.  So if we are an "average" 50 win team, we'll win 4 non back to back Cat 4s and 1 back to back.  If you took five of those Cat 3 back to backs away, and made five more of our Cat 4s back to backs, you might only cost us one win in Cat 4, and gain us several in Cat 3.  I think this hurts us if we're a 50 win team.  If we're 60 plus, it probably helps us, because we have to do better than 5 wins in Cat 4 to hit 60 wins.

Last year, Utah played half (or more) of their Cat 4s on back to backs, and got destroyed.  The schedule is kinder to the Jazz this year.  It is harder on LA than it was last year.

New Feature I Didn't Cover Last Year

This is back to back games in which our opponent is also on a back to back.

I'm pretty much assuming that the back to back in such cases is a wash.  They are tired, you are tired.  In fact, it might be slightly to our advantage if we have superior depth, but in any event, I think a table that removes these games from the back to back totals tells us a little more....

Factoring that aspect in, you can see that most teams have an advantage on us here, the exceptions being LA and Denver.  Phoenix has a lot of back to backs (20), but on 11 of them their opponent is on a back to back, too.  Pretty amazing.

Opponent Back to Backs

These are the games where our opponent is on the second night of a back to back.  We had a LOT of these last year, as has been noted by many people, and not so many this year.

I think we can set some of the conspiracy theories aside now.  If the league was trying to make LA's schedule easy, I don't think you would see them with only 9 teams coming in on a back to back.  Houston's schedule is harder on some factors, but look at those 10 Cream Puffs.  They should win those games anyway, but with the opponent on a back to back....

These do include games where both teams are on a back to back, so let's remove those from the table, and look at those games where the team is not on a back to back, but it's opponent is:

Before feeling too sorry for Denver because their home schedule is harder than ours due to having to play one more against winning teams than we do, look at the back to back story.  Three of those home games against winning teams are back to backs for Denver, while we have none that are back to backs -- but they have an additional 12(!!!) that are back to backs for the opponent, while we only have four. 

Some Closing Thoughts

Well, that's the Sched Ahead overview.  I like what the schedulers did for us as far as who we play 3 times, and who we play 4 times.  I like that they gave us home court for the season series against LA and the Spurs.  We might end up being very glad of that before all is done.  Definite advantages for us on this front.

They've treated us fairly well as far as the back to backs we play.  There have been better schedules on that front, but there have been a lot worse, too.

They've not been very kind to us as far as when our opponents are on a back to back.  A lot of other teams have it better.  We have 14 opponent back to backs.  LA has 9, OKC has 14, Boston has 15, and everyone else has more.  The league average is 20. 

Any time you face opponents on the second night of a back to back five less times than you have to play back to backs yourself, you have to recognize the schedule isn't all that kind to you.

The unbalanced opposition that we've drawn may mean an extra win for us, maybe even a couple.  The back to back situation may cost us the same.  I don't see anything in the schedule that greatly changes my view on our prospects this season.

Projection?

No projection, but a prediction.  I reserve the right to change it after preseason, but I put us at 62 wins.  Please note that here on Bedge I predicted two wins too low two years ago and one win too high last year.  Since I'm always within two, I've made my prediction 62 to ensure that we at least hit 60.

I'll be pretty busy the next day or two, so if anyone has any questions on any of this stuff, please be patient with me, I may or may not get to it until Saturday.  Have fun.