The Official 2009-10 Prediction Thread

I think we will improve in wins, but not a crazy jump. The addition of Miller is enough to give us a few more wins, keeping in mind that we won a lot of close games last year. It will get easier to win, but we won’t make the jump to a number #1 seed.

Blazers win enough games to take NW Division Title, 57-60 wins. The media no longer doubts Greg Oden. Batum stands up and hits some game winning shots. Blazers fans are irked that LA is not included in the All Star game. LA responds by dominating Gasol in last game of regular season. Blazers reach western finals.

but for now, I’ll go with 58. The Blazers played like a 56 win team based on point differential last year and Andre Miller should provide a significant upgrade. Backup PF is a concern, but it would be hard to be worse than Frye was last year. The Blazers will be in a dogfight with Denver all season long for the division (with Utah not too far behind), and I think the Blazers pull it out by 2 games.

Blazers get to 62-63 wins this year. Miller helps out. Webster comes back better than ever. Batum continues his progress he started last year, continued in Europe. Lamarcus makes all star. Oden is improved but only averages 13 and 10…still a presence on defense.

They get the 2 seed, behind LA.

The Blazers then shock LA in 6 games and beat Boston in the Finals in 7.

It’s the first of several.

LA fans never show their face on a Blazer board again.

64 wins, 7.3 ppg margin of victory

Only a couple of home losses.

Player……..Minutes…..Points……..Rebounds……..Assists
Roy…………37…………..23…………….5…………………5
Aldridge……37…………..18…………….8…………………2
Oden……….28…………..10…………….9…………………1
Miller………..31…………..12…………….4…………………7
Webster……24…………..11…………….3…………………1
Blake……….20……………9……………..2…………………4
Fernandez…24…………..10…………….2…………………2
Outlaw………21…………..11……………4…………………1
Batum………12……………3…………….1…………………0
Pryzbilla…….20……………2…………….7…………………0
Bayless………6……………4…………….1…………………2
Pendergraph…5…………..2…………….2…………………0
Cunningham…5…………..3…………….1…………………0

I’ve done this for the past few years, and every year I miss the one guy who misses most or all of the season and unbalances all the numbers. Last year it was Martell, the year before it was Oden, the year before it was Joel. Let this be the year we don’t have that happen, and 64 wins maybe will.

Yes, San Antonio has gotten better with the addition of Jefferson & McDyess and the L*kers have not gotten worse, but no other team in the Western Conference has the room and likelihood to develop like the Trailblazers.

Portland has improved at point with Miller and at SF with the return of Webster. That’s like adding two quality FAs. In addition, barring injury, Batum, Oden, Aldridge & Rudy, young and hungry, will improve. The team has a year’s experience and a frustrating first round playoff loss to put behind them. They know the importance of gaining home court advantage in the post season.

They will win 60 games and lose 22, finishing behind L.A. and possibly S.A. for best Western Conference record. They will reach the Western Conference finals.

And that’s the truth.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest Division
1. Portland Trail Blazers (No. 3 Overall)
Gained depth at PG in Andre Miller, plus Martell Webster will be healthy again after missing entire 08-09 season, and with Oden and Nicolas Batum improving, the Blazers are my (admittedly biased but still very realistic) pick to win the NW division.
2. Denver Nuggets (No. 4 Overall)
Still a pretty strong team. Lost some depth (Dahntay Jones and Linas Klezia) which is why I don’t have them repeating as division champs.
3. Utah Jazz (No. 6 Overall)
Basically the same team as last year. Solidly in the playoffs but not finals contenders.
4. “Oklahoma City” “Thunder”
The Zombie Sonics are going to be sick in a couple of years. This year they’ll still finish in the lower end of the division, but look for Durant to cross over into the Kobe/Lebron/Wade stratosphere (I’m not joking. He’s a complete stud).
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Not good at all last year, and I don’t see anything that got them better over the summer.

Pacific Division
1. Los Angeles Lakers (No. 1 Overall)
Artest was a high-risk/high-reward signing but I think that if there’s any combination of superstar/strong coach that can keep his eccentricities in check, it’s Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson. Still the team to beat in the West.
2. Phoenix Suns (No. 7 Overall)
Should play better together with Shaq gone. If Amare Stoudemire is healthy they should make the playoffs.
3. Golden State Warriors (No. 8 Overall)
I like these guys a lot, very young and diverse in talent, but the West is too stacked for them to get a higher seed.
4. Los Angeles Clippers
Got rid of Zach Randolph, which is always a good thing, and Blake Griffin is going to be great, so on paper they could potentially make a playoff run. However, they’re the Clippers. They’ll find a way to screw it up somehow.
5. Sacramento Kings
Awful and not getting any better.

Southwest Division
1. San Antonio Spurs (No. 2 Overall)
Adding Richard Jefferson could be dangerous, considering they gave up essentially nothing for him. They would be the clear favorite to reach the Finals if Duncan and Ginobili weren’t such huge question marks, injury-wise.
2. Dallas Mavericks (No. 5 Overall)
Shawn Marion was a great signing for them. They’re a solid team, and the fact that they won’t make it past the first round says more about the rest of the Western Conference than it does about them.
3. Houston Rockets
Yao is out for the season, Artest signed with LA, McGrady is still out and we don’t know when he’ll be back. I like some of the young guys on this team (Scola, Brooks, etc.) and I love the Ariza signing, but that stuff is going to play out later on. I wouldn’t expect much from them this year.
4. New Orleans Hornets
No depth beyond CP3. They got the better end of the Chandler-Okafur deal but considering the kinds of upgrades the rest of the West teams made, that isn’t enough to get them back into the playoffs.
5. Memphis Grizzlies
Biggest joke in the NBA, hands down. Their front office is a disgrace…they gave away Pau Gasol to the Lakers for nothing, and then a year later they’re willing to trade for Zach Randolph and give him essentially the same money. Genius.

First Round:
Lakers over Warriors in 5
Spurs over Suns in 5
Blazers over Jazz in 6
Nuggets over Mavericks in 5

Second Round:
Lakers over Nuggets in 6
Blazers over Spurs in 7

Conference Finals:
Lakers over Blazers in 7

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast Division
1. Boston Celtics (No. 3 Overall)
Rasheed Wallace gives them more frontcourt depth. I can’t bring myself to predict them making the finals because Garnett’s knees are too much of a question mark.
2. Toronto Raptors (No. 8 Overall)
The Turkoglu contract was terrible in the long run (have fun trading the last two years and $20 million of that when he stops being good a few years down the line), but for this year he’ll help them out. I don’t see them getting much higher than the 8th seed, but they’ll make the playoffs. And then when Chris Bosh bolts next summer they’ll go right back to being a mediocre lottery team.
3. New Jersey Nets
The Carter trade will be great for them a few years down the road, but I don’t see them doing much this year.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
Nothing to get excited about with them. Andre Miller was a huge piece, and he left for Portland. Not going anywhere.
5. New York Knicks
Not only are they terrible already, but they might lose David Lee and Nate Robinson, all in the vain hope that they’ll somehow be able to convince LeBron and Wade to sign with them in 2010, which is NOT happening.

Central Division
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 1 Overall)
LeBron and Shaq, enough said.
2. Chicago Bulls (No. 6 Overall)
These guys are young and promising. I like them a lot. The East is too top-heavy for them to make it past the first round, but they’ve got a good thing going.
3. Detroit Pistons
Let Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess walk and sign with better teams, overpaid for Charlie Villanueva, overpaid even more for Ben Gordon who has to share minutes with Rip Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey, signed Ben Wallace for no apparent reason. They barely finished at .500 last year. They’ll be lucky even to do that.
4. Milwaukee Bucks
Gave away Richard Jefferson, let Villanueva walk, probably not about to re-sign Ramon Sessions either. They were mediocre before, they’re mediocre now.
5. Indiana Pacers
Nothing at all special or interesting or promising about this team.

Southeast Division
1. Orlando Magic (No. 2 Overall)
Vince Carter and Brandon Bass are both terrific pickups. Rashard Lewis missing 10 games with the roid thing costs them the No. 1 seed.
2. Atlanda Hawks (No. 4 Overall)
3. Washington Wizards (No. 5 Overall)
Atlanta and Washington are my two sleeper picks. Love both of these teams. Washington will be dangerous if Gilbert Arenas is as healthy as people say he is.
4. Miami Heat (No. 7 Overall)
Wade alone is good enough to get them into the playoffs, but no depth.
5. Charlotte Bobcats
No chance of making the playoffs.

First Round:
Cavs over Raptors in 5
Magic over Heat in 4
Celtics over Bulls in 7
Wizards over Hawks in 7

Second Round:
Cavs over Wizards in 5
Celtics over Magic in 7

Conference Finals: Cavs over Celtics in 7

FINALS: Lakers vs. Cavs. I’m going to abstain from picking a winner in this series right now, but it will go into 7 games regardless.

MVP: Dwyane Wade
RoY: Blake Griffin
6th Man: Lamar Odom
Defensive Player: Dwight Howard
Most Improved: HOPEFULLY Greg Oden
Coach: Stan Van Gundy

Because we will win more than last year, but we’re still not a 60 win team.

6 ppg margin of victory. 2nd seed in the west ( in a ferociously close race with Denver and S.A. ). Western Conference Finals, that ends in a game 7 in L.A. with a L@ker victory after Nicholson runs onto the court with the game tied, the ball in Roy’s hands, and 5 seconds left. Jack runs over to Brandon and screams at him, forcing the refs to call a T on Roy with 0.1 seconds remaining on the clock. Kobe makes the technical FT for the W.

When Asked why he deserved a T for Jack Nicholson screaming at him, Tim Donaghy ( who was taken out of banishment for this one game, citing conspiracy theories from the rabid Portland fan base ), replied “Brandon, It’s Jack freakin’ Nicholson. If he’s yelling at you, you must have done something wrong.”

what they over achieved last year. I think 56 wins is likely. Second in division. Third in the west, ahead of Spurs and behind Denver and LA. Second round after squeaking past either the Mavs or Jazz. Lets say Mavs. Second round loss.

LMA 20-10 all year.

Oden struggles until all-star break and then has a killer second half.

Andre clicks right from the start of the season.

Martell has a respectable season, but Batum becomes the clear star at the 3.

Rudy a close runner up for 6th man of the year.

Lose in the Finals in 6 games

Third or fourth in the Western Conference.

Greg will start out slow, but by the end of season will become a solid 25-30 minute guy, nearly averaging a double double.

LaMarcus won’t make the All-Star team, despite having a solid season.

Brandon will finish 3rd in MVP voting.

Nic will start, Martell comes off the bench, Rudy will be awesome like always but not as a point guard, Jerryd will fade into the background unless there’s Steve or Miller gets injured

Our improving chemistry will help us get through poorly played games. Miller will flourish with the likes of Rudy, LMA and Webster as his targets. Oden will improve through Miller through countless easy dunks through lobs.

Roy’s stats will decline but only because he doesn’t have to single handedly win games for us. He will become more efficient (it’s hard to imagine) and will be healthier due to sharing the load. He will still be an All-star again.

Sept 1 predictions

58 or 59 wins – Injuries will cost us 60 (who? don’t know, but someone)
We Win NW Division
2nd in Western Conference
We Lose in WCF’s to Lakers in 6
Roy makes All-Star Team, LMA not
Batum starting again at SF by Dec 1
Outlaw Traded
Bayless stays (but hardly plays) unless included in Outlaw trade
Rudy averages 27 minutes, plays 6 minutes per game or more at PG by end of year

Far-out, Long shot prediction – Oden named to All-Star Team by Coaches if Duncan voted on as PF.
Oden averages 31 minutes, 14 points, 12 rebounds. 2.0 blocks, and is a major defensive presence that earns him the all-star vote from the coaches.

Ok, more realistically he averages 28 minutes, 12 points, 9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and I’ll still be happy watching him in the rookie/sophomore game.

its a little high but i think they can do it.. martel is coming back, i dont expect that to make to much of a difference. oden dropped a few pounds and should have a much more productive season.. he did miss 20 some games last season so that should be a couple more wins. batum spent a lot of time playing this summer, so he shouldnt be as big of an offensive liability this season, therefore his excellent defense should be on the floor for longer. dre should add a few wins… outlaw is working out this summer, so thats good. and as a whole i think the blazers are going to be playing like they have a chip on there shoulder from the early exit from the playoffs. i expect roy to be on a mission.

The blazers will get the second seed. denver didnt do much this offseason. jr smith is suspended a few games, kleiza is gone, i expect them to only get 50 wins or so.. spurs are going to do as good as everyone thinks, more than likely someone gets injured. dallas is going to slow down, nowitski especially, and kid should have retired by now.

blazers will make it wcf and will bring the lakers to game 7… unfortunately i dont see the blazers taking the lakers this year. next year for sure!

73-9…

Gotta outdo the Zen Master

I think the team growing up will be a +2

Oden will give us a +2

Andre will give us 2; making the second team a fast break unit.

It could be lots more but there are lots of tangibles that can’t be factors in.

magnumpi

the Blazers win 58 games next year. 2 or 3 wins got away from Portland that should have been wins, but we also got some to go our way. So there is 54 wins at least assuming that happens again. I think we win at least 4 more game just because Portland will be so much better on the road. We are going to pick up those games @ Philly and @ Charlotte. We will also probably win a game in LA, and I know we won’t lose all 4 games to Dallas.

The Blazers could have won 60 last year had they taken care of buisness on the road. So that’s why I’m going with 58. I do think we could reach 60, but I know it’s possibly going to cost us a couple games as players gell and injuries happen.

Greg Oden will not improve enough for the haters to stop calling him a bust

Joel P will start more games than Greg Oden

LaMarcus makes the all star game

LOSS in WCF

2nd seed

we’ll have a fight when we play the lakers

Brandon finally gets national recognition

Lakers will defeat us game 7 of WCF again

It’s all about Texas this season

Win in season home opener against Houston

Difficult stretch in Phoenix, Orlando, Miami, Dallas, San Antonio, Denver, Philadelphia sequence in December leads to a ton of “Fire Nate” and “Trade Everybody” posts.

The new year brings a new and improved team harmony

Loss in WC-semis vs. San Antonio (or was it LA? So murky. Nah, I saw white jerseys)

Brandon and LaMarcus make the All-Star game in Dallas

As does Durant. Oden does not, but after more doubting questions from local and national writers angrily dominates the rookies-sophomores game.

Martell still doesn’t have his breakout season. Nic does show impressive progress for part of the season.

Everyone expects a big trade at the deadline, but in the end it turns out to be something like Juwan Howard for Malik Allen.

One rotation player goes down with injury for a long while. My crystal ball doesn’t tell me who, but I can predict that BE will panic.

P.S.: The new smaller commenting window designed for mobile sucks! How hard is it to reformat the site when recognizing a phone?

we finish with the 3rd seed(behind L* and san antonio). We upset L* in round 2 in 5 games(all home games are a blowout for us and we squeak one out in la) . then lose a tough(every game but one is decided by 5 points or less) 6 game series to the spurs in the wcf. the spurs move on to beat boston in one of the greatest defensive finals ever(also known as boring for the casual fan) again in 6.

the biggest rise for a team in the west is the clippers, who fire dunleavy mid season and make a push for the playoffs only to fall a game short. griffin is as good as advertised and b diddy gets motivated again.

the biggest fall in the west is the jazz. with boozer and okur eyeing free agency the team quits on their coach and fall into a downward spiral that not even d-will or millsap can save them from.

the biggest rise in the east is the wizards. with arenas healthy all season and a few role players added this offseason they make a serious climb all the way to the 5th seed in the east.

the biggest fall in the east is philadelphia. After losing their floor general(to the greatest team on earth) they struggle with consistency(already a bit of a problem for them) they have games were they win big against good teams but just as many were they lose badly to bad teams. they struggle with mediocrity all season finishing 5 games out of the playoffs.

other things: the shaq experiement doesn’t work out in cleveland and they end up 3rd in the east and are bounced in the second round. shaq says some bad things about lebron afterwards(i know, i know, shocker)

houston stays afloat(somehow) only to get yao back for the playoffs and lose all continuity and the series(badly)

new orleans continues to sell off players for cap space. it becomes so bad that chris paul say “this is not what i signed up for.” their front office replies with “chris was just joking, haha, he does that sometimes. He’s not going anywhere.”

OKC still sucks, then gets a high draft pick, then bill simmons writes a 1000 word article on why they will be the breakout team next year.

ppl who get traded: amare, john salmons(again), rip hamilton, mike dunleavy jr., raymond felton(if stil with ’cats), redd(finally), almost the entire knicks team, josh howard, boozer, and a couple meh players(like always)
 some of this may sound absurd but i was going for the gold on these picks

Blazers lose in the first round to New Orleans fans react by blaming Outlaw who will have been playing for Miami since the trade deadline.

35 Home
22 Away

Division Winner
3rd in the WC
Brandon the only All-Star
More “quality” wins, fewer last second heroics required, we put away the teams we should, with 5 mins to go in the 4th Nate gets to rest Brandon, LMA, Andre.
Rex gets some regular minutes at garbage time.
2nd round of the playoffs.

   I’m not so good at predicitions. I think this is going to be a hard season to call. We will know a lot quickly, see how this team starts the season out.

   I think this could be a dream season, or very disappointing very quickly. As we’ve rebuilt we’ve been afforded the luxury of being the young team on the rise, and thus a lot of sins were forgiven automatically. But now we have a veteran PG core, our long term star in Brandon Roy and all the other sub plots and players involved. This is really going to be a put up or shut up season.

   It’s easier to be the new guest arriving at a party, it’s harder to be at that party and keep it going. Last season it was generally accepted that we arrived. Now the expectations are to maintain that level and improve.

  I think we clearly have the talent to accomplish this, but we still are young team and most of our improvement is going to come from the development of existing players. Too hard to predict what type of seasons a Batum, Webster or Oden might have. They all could have break out seasons that really propel The Blazers to a higher level, or any one of them or all of them could struggle. It’s a cop out, but I just can’t predict anything….except it should be a fun season to watch.

55 wins. The team will be better, but the schedule will be a little tougher. Opponents will be circling the Blazers on their calendars this year. The other teams won’t be softened up by back to backs like last year.

Even though I made a win total prediction, I am not sure win total should be the goal. I think winning the division should be the goal. The Blazers need home court, which is an obvious advantage for them.

that’s my non-homer prediction. my homer prediction is a Finals appearance.

55 Wins. Brandon will improve a little bit, but will produce at about the same rate. Lamarcus will continue to produce 18 – 8, though expect a little more consistency. Greg will still have quite a bit of foul trouble, but will be able to play about 30 minutes a game. Overall I think we’ll be the third seed behind the Lakers and Spurs.

awesomeness.

I dunno about wins…I’ll say 57 just to have a number out there.

My main prediction is the same one I made last year, and I’ll keep making it ‘til it’s true. LaMarcus – 20 & 10.

I also predict a new beard fad in Portland, spawned by another “won’t shave til ________” committment by the team. Soon all men, women and children will be sporting beards. Some of them will be fake. Some you will wish were fake.

it will take one more season to crack the 60 win barrier. We are still too young. Projecting anything but improvement is a sign of over-confidence, and over-confidence is the key to disappointment.

I do think regardless of the win total, Portland might be able to pull off a first round playoff series victory, assuming they match up with Utah.

I predict an uneven season. With everything clicking and everyone healthy, the Blazers average a 9 ppg margin of victory. Rudy’s game becomes more well rounded, Batum is a much better offensive player and a more reliable defender. Oden plays more minutes and is a terror on the boards. LMA settles for fewer jumpers. The Blake-Miller point guard rotation is far superior to the Blake-Rodriguez one. The Blazers team rebounding is ridiculous. It becomes a major focus of opponents.

Unfortunately, the Blazers will suffer a few key injuries and become . occasionally complacent. Roy misses 10 games. LaMarcus misses 15 games. Pryzbilla misses 20 games. Greg misses 10. Without Roy, the Blazers are fairly straightforward to defend. Without LaMarcus, Pryzbilla, or Oden, the inexperience in the back-up PF and C is exposed.

Fortunately, the Blazers are healthy for the playoffs (and maybe even sign a veteran PF just for the playoffs). They play like they do during their best stretches during the regular season. The Lakers lack the drive/health to repeat. Kobe doesn’t look like the same player by May; the years of wear start to show. Duncan and Giniboli have lost enough that the addition of Jefferson doesn’t really matter.

The Blazers lose to the Cavs in the NBA finals. The Cavs center combination plus LeBron is big enough and tough enough to negate the Blazers usual dominance on the boards. Cavs win in 6 games.

We’ll win the division and earn the #2 seed in the west.

Oden will start slow, but will end strong averaging 14 and 10 on the year.

Miller will thrive and realize how good this team is, compared to the 6’ers.

Bayless will make the jump into the rotation at some point and Blake and Outlaw won’t make it to the end of the season (maybe just #25).

Aldridge will get his extension that’s loaded with incentives, which if he hits, will put him near max.

Roy and Aldridge will make the ASG.

We will make it to the WCF and lose to the fakers in 7.

Go Blazers!

I think the west has gotten better, it will take time for Roy and Dre to learn to play together.

Games in LAC, GS, and even in Memphis won’t be as easy this year as they were last (who am I kidding, those Memphis games will be just as easy!).

I think the Blazers win the NW Division, and finish with the 2-3 seed.

For the record, I don’t think LA will win 60 games this year, nor will anyone in the west, I think all of the top teams will win a few less games (with the Spurs holding steady) and the worst teams in the west gaining a few games.

I think the Blazers will win the first round of the playoffs. I hope they make it to the WCF, but we will see.

2nd round of the playoffs. 2nd seed, contender status.

I think if everything works right, we could win 60, but that’s a lot of things to work right. Oden needs to be Oden for 30+ minutes a game. Miller needs to fit right away. Blazers need to avoid injuries. We need to win the games that we’re supposed to win. We need to win out on the road.

I don’t think all of these things come together this year. But enough of them do for us to reach 53 wins, which puts us into a good playoff position. Sure, that’s not as good as last year. But last year so many things came together that might not happen as well this year (like catching so many teams on back-to-backs). It’s not that we’ll be worse than last year (we wont), but that things will just work out this way.

Eastern Conference playoff teams
Boston – 63 wins
Cleveland – 60 wins
Orlando – 58 wins
Atlanta – 49 wins
Chicago – 44 wins
Miami – 44 wins
Detroit – 40 wins
Washington – 40 wins

EC Lottery Teams
Toronto – 37 wins
Philadelphia – 33 wins
Indiana – 32 wins
Milwaukee – 32 wins
Charlotte – 28 wins
New Jersey – 28 wins
New York – 25 wins

Western Conference Playoff Teams
LA Lakers – 62 wins
Portland – 58 wins
San Antonio – 57 wins
Denver – 55 wins
Dallas – 51 wins
Utah – 49 wins
New Orleans – 47 wins
LA Clippers – 40 wins

WC Lottery Teams
Phoenix – 38 wins
Houston – 35 wins
Oklahoma City – 33 wins
Golden State – 32 wins
Minnesota – 22 wins
Memphis – 20 wins
Sacramento – 18 wins

I think people underestimate just how hard it is to get 60 wins in the NBA. Only the truly outstanding teams each year can get there. It’s been said here before but it’s important to remember that the jump from 41 to 54 wins was difficult, but the jump from 54 to 60 is twice as difficult. Teams will be gunning for Portland now. This is no longer a team under the radar.

That being said, even with the possibility that the Blazers overachieved last season, it’s hard not to think that there won’t be at least a slight improvement in the win column this season. A few reasons why this is the case:

1. The team is a year better, not a year older. That’s the luxury of having a young team on the rise. Another season in the league brings nothing but improvement for the young fellas. I don’t know how Roy could improve much, but historically, players at his age continue to improve their game and get better for another few years. That alone should be worth a few wins.

2. The return of a healthy Greg Oden and Martell Webster. Now, I’m firmly entrenched in the “Batum is the SF of the future” camp. But you could do a heck of a lot worse than Martell as a backup. Instant offense off the bench would be nice from him, but I’d be satisfied with consistent play and a few points a game. He’s been out of action for a while now and probably will need at least a couple weeks to catch up to full game speed. We’ve all heard what Greg’s been up to with the USA Mini-Camp and his workouts in Columbus. Any offensive improvement from him is huge, but the real thing that should make Blazer fans salivate is his increased knowledge of how to control the paint. Last season he was a difference maker down low defensively with his athleticism and size alone. With improved footwork and court vision, he could be one of this league’s elite interior defenders. It’s still a work in progress, but the foundation is there for a monster.

3. Andre Miller. I really like what he can do on offense. He’s not a bomber, but he’ll set up his teammates well along with finding his own buckets. Even a slight improvement on defense at PG over Blake is a welcome addition.

Still, even with all of these possible additions, I find it hard to believe that this team is now a title contender already. I certainly hope that’s the case, but I still think they’re a year away. Portland should definitely make the second round of the playoffs this year. Whether or not they get to the conference finals depends on who they play. I think they can beat just about any team in the West in a playoff series outside of LA and SA right now. Even though talentwise I think Portland is better, I think the playoff experience of the Spurs would be hard to overcome. If they can avoid either of those teams in the second round, the conference finals are definitely within reach this season.

I’ll guess 58-24, losing in a 6 game series vs. the Lakers in the conference finals.

Asking all of us to put numbers down officially without doing the same himself? Tsk, tsk, tsk…..

Win the division
2nd in conference
Make the WCF
Beat the F*kers all 3 times this year
Roy and LMA make the All-Star Team
Roy is 2nd team All-NBA
LMA is 3rd team
Greg starts to shine
So does Batum
Martell or Trout is traded (prob Trout)
Bayless wins praise due to his play when another PG is injured
Joel stares down Shaq at least twice

We’ve improved an average of 11+ games each of the last three seasons, so nine more wins does not seem like such a stretch because:

• Continuity. We lost a few minor pieces and gained only one significant player in Andre, who has no pressure to perform at an All-Star level for the team to succeed.
• Harmony. Blazer team chemistry continues to be fabulous, while some of our competitors (Lakers with Ron-Ron, Jazz with Boozer, Mavs with Marion) may have issues.
• Growth. Our young team is maturing. Brandon and LaMarcus start their fourth season. Greg, Rudy, Nic, and Jerryd have a full season under their belt. Miller, Blake, and Przybilla are veterans. And none of our rookies will see significant minutes.
• Age. Not ours, but our opponents. A lot of them have players moving past their prime.
• No lineup holes. Our reserves could beat a lot of teams by themselves.
• Martell. How excited would we be if we had acquired him in the draft? He’s our #1 pick this year. We don’t know for sure how he’ll do, but he has the potential to regain the starting small forward role, which would be a tremendous accomplishment and a big lift for the team.
• Brandon. Our guys believe in his skills and leadership.

Roy continues his rise to superstardom by making his 3rd consecutive allstar team.
LMA will be considered for the allstar team, but ultimately won’t make it.
Greg Oden will be average at best offensively, but will change how other teams play with his defense and ultimately contribute positively to the team on a more consistent basis.
Andre Miller will prove to be a good addition for his leadership and decision making abilities in the clutch.
Marty the Viking will settle into a consistent 3pt threat off the bench
Batum will continue to start
Travis will not be smarter than a 5th grader, and will post youtube videos of himself not being able to dribble with his left hand. (wait, that already happened). Really, that this guy once sat down with JC and said he wants to be an allstar is laughable. He can’t even start over a 20 year old Euro.
Dante Cunningham will get limited minutes and his deficiencies as a short power forward will make him borderline useless unless he bulks up and out powers people.
Jeff Pendergraph will take on the role of Shav and MAYBE see spot up garbage time duty.
KP will get exactly what he wants out of his team, and all transactions that occur around the trade deadline will be exactly how he foretold they would be. He will also walk on water, but someone in attendance will spot Gob hiding behind a curtain and realize it’s all an illusion.
Rudy will continue to hustle, and continue to play his way out of Portland since no one is unseeding Brandon as the starting 2.
Most importantly, they’ll make it to the second round of the playoffs and be eliminated in a 6 game series by either the Los Angeles Lakers (notice the respect with out the lame *) or the San Antonio Spurs.

I think I’ll go with a best/worst case scenario…

Worst case:
52 wins. 4th seed. 2nd in division. Lose in 2nd round of playoffs to the fl*kers.
Brandon goes to his 3rd All-star game (voted in by coaches) and finishes 7th in MVP voting. He averages 22/4/4
LA and Greg do not make it to the All-star game.
LA averages 18/7
Greg averages 10/9

Best Case:
61 wins. 2nd seed. 1st in division. Lose to the fl*kers in the WC Finals.
Brandon goes to his 3rd All-star game (voted in by fans!!!) and finishes 2nd in MVP voting. He averages 25/5/5
LaMarcus goes to his 1st All-star game (voted in by the coaches)
He averages 23/8
Longshot: Greg goes to his 1st All-star game (voted in by the coaches)
Greg averages 16/10

Other predictions:
Batum will win the starting SF spot.
Andre will win the starting PG spot
Greg will win the starting C spot
Blazers will have the best home record in the west.

Roy: Will plateau slightly, but still put up great numbers: 23.7 points, 4.7 assists, 4.5 rebounds. Will obviously be an all-star, but not voted in by the fans. That will be a coaches decision.

Aldridge: Tough to say. He could either coast like he has the last two years, or this could be his break out year. I predict 18.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists. No all-star appearance.

Oden: Will improve, but wont be our savior. Foul trouble will continue to be an issue. 25 minutes, 11.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 4.1 personal fouls.

Batum: I hope and pray this year will be his coming out party. This is the prediction I expect to be most incorrect, but color me an optimist when it comes to my boy Batum. 24 minutes, 9 points, 4.5 rebounds. Obviously a lock down defender.

Outlaw: Yet another consistently inconsistent year for Outlaw. No defense, no off hand dribbling. 26 minutes, 12.3 points, 3.8 rebounds.

Miller: I expect his production to fall off, but only slightly. 28 minutes, 12 points, 5.5 assists.

Blake: With the presence of Miller, his numbers will dive as well. 20 minutes, 7 points, 3.8 assists.

Przybilla: I expect him to be fiesty as ever if he plans to opt out of his contract. I have a feeling this will depend on his production. 23 minutes, 5.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.4 blocks.

Rudy: It’s hard to pencil him in due to minutes, but he’ll continue his hot stroke. The problem is, I still don’t see him having an increased role on the team. Minutes for him will remain the same, at best. 25 minutes, 9.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, 38.9% 3-point shooting.

Webster: Who the heck knows. I’m not even going to bother to guess. This guy has never lived up to my expectations and his flashes of brilliance (24 points in a quarter!) aren’t enough for me to make an educated guess on how he’ll do this year, especially after not having played competitive ball in 18 months.

Team Predictions: After 58 wins, I see the blazers getting home court advantage in the first round and beating their 1st round opponent. I see them losing to the 2nd round opponent.

Baby steps.

I see a 59-23 season for the Blazers, which was good enough for the NW division title and second seed in teh west, behind the L@kers. The Blazers cruise through the playoffs, until they meet the L@kers in the WCF. The series goes 7 games, with “he who shall not be named” hitting a 3 point prayer at the last second to win the game and series.

LA is a 20-10 guy all season long and is named as a reserve to teh all star game.

Oden is no longer labeled a bust by anyone whose opinion counts (which means Bill Simmons will still be ragging on him.) He will be a beast on the boards and will be in the top 2 in blocks.

It will take a month or two before Miller blends in with Roy. The team record will actually trail that from last year for several months, before everything clicks and the Blazers are THE hot team in the league from the all star break on.

Roy’s scoring average will drop by a point or two, but he will make his annual all star appearance.

The battle for the starting SF spot will be intense. That will be the matchup in practice that I’d love to see.

I also see one of the following being traded during the season: Outlaw, Blake, Rudy. If I had to pick, I;d vote for Outlaw, but it will be dependent on what KP can get in return.

people dancing in the aisles of the Rose Garden

Tied record with San Antonio but we lose tie breaker with the Spurs either on head-to-head or conference record against playoff teams.

Last year 64% of Bedgers predicted 50 or less wins. I bet this year 64% or less of Bedgers predict 61 or more wins. And we call us homers. I predict 64 wins for next season. I dare you to call me homer.

nate is fired after the 3rd preseason game and roy is named player coach. everyone makes the all star team. roy is mvp. cunningham is rookie of the year, rudy 6th man, oden most improved, paul allen hires me as a person to talk to during the game.

62-20 regular season because injuries happen. A healthy team with everythign clicking could easily be 72-10, but it’ll take a while for the team to really click and people won’t be healthy.

If the blazers can handle the changes with the lakers they make it to the finals. If not, their run stops when they hit the lakers.

If the blazers make the finals and have a let down in one game, they lose due to some calls that Blazer fans consider horrible. Finals go to 6 games regardless.

Aldridge doesn’t make all-star as a PF and only makes it if he’s somehow considered a center or if his stats are in the 25/10 range which he hasn’t shown he can do night in and out. He competes against Boozer, Duncan, Stoudamire. I don’t see him beating those guys out (although duncan would likely be center).

Aldridge always seems to start the season slow and then start bursting around the end of the season. I’m going to predict the same pattern although I’d be ecstatic if he could bust out at the beginning of the season and improve from there. Doing that he has a chance at all star and the stats required, but he’s yet to start a season hot.

Roy improves on his scoring by about 2 points and averages 5-6 and 5-6.

Blazers take division and are ranked #2 in west.

Blazers make a trade with Outlaw or Webster Mid Season. the player in return will drop jaws.

Webster comes back and improves slightly.

Oden comes back and still looks slow and clunky but manages to improve his foot work. People will continue to call him a bust despite the fact he’ll start to average 12/10 and the fact he’ll change games for us. End of the season I can see him around 16/10 and real improvement will happen after the all star break when he gets a breather. People will stop calling him a bust and instead say that he shouldn’t have been the first pick because they forget what he was like playing ball in college with one hand.

The Blazers will go on a little losing streak on the road and people will call for Nate’s head because he’s not substituting right. Close losses will be blamed on Nate or the Ref’s.

Bayless will see little playing time and people will continue to grumble about him being a bust. Rumors may even come out that he’s voicing displeasure. The good news is that he’ll start to look good and people will be grumbling because he’ll start to show a consistent game that’s worth playing. The trade may change his playing time. If so he’ll show that he’s not quite ready to really lead the team but has qualities that are tantalizing and full of potential and he can make a good back-up (assumes trade is about mid season).

Miller and Roy. that’s a tough one. I’m going to predict they’ll fit together because they HAVE to fit together and both are good enough they’ll find a way.

Batum will show a little improvement with scoring adn still be strong on defense but will be unable to garner a lot of playing time until Webster or Outlaw leave.

Sophia will complain about cheerleaders while mooning for Batum.
I will appreciate the cheerleaders while humping Rudy’s leg.
Tom will post something that people think is funny and he’s serious about.

Dave will preach about not getting too up at wins or down on losses and then be swept up in enthusiasm as the blazers start to annihilate other teams on a consistent basis. The holes he’s always concerned about are gone or reduced to such an extent that another year totally banishes them.

Blazers start a little slow the first 10-20 games and lose a few games they weren’t supposed to as they learn to play together with new parts. They finish the season like a steam roller with +15pt margins of victory.

New people crash Blazers Edge and the Old timers and the new old timers go a little nuts about the one sentence posts that go along the lines of “the blzrs r gr8 n will win it all don’t u think! GO BALZERS!”

People will become emotional after losses and demand trades.
People will demand trades anyway. Most of the trades will consist of an imaginary player that fits the mold of lebron james, Wade, Howard, or Paul.

Outlaw is going to tick a few people off with his mistakes.

Jscot still won’t rule the world but will continue to put his devious plans into motion.

Just Blaze will win another Court Rivals Championship.

Blake puts up a tougher fight than others are predicting but eventually loses the starting position. His play is very conservative and eventually it’ll be recognized that the blazers need solid play, but they need to take risks to take advantage of situations.

Joel stays with the blazers. he wants the championship and he’s still getting over 20 minutes a game with the Oden/Pryz switching. His money pitching wife is ticked with him and scolds him. he stands firm.

People still continue to complain about the blazers not running, but they DO take advantage of more fast break opportunities and despite “not running” they’re still winning.

I become engaged after i get a little smashed but don’t regret it.

The economy starts to visibly turn around about januaryish (in that people start hiring again)

Extremism will still rule politics and people will continue to protest things that are actually amazingly beneficial to them because the slogans sound cool.

People will continue to say “can’t” instead of “how”.

Blazers will make it deep into the playoffs and yet still supposedly lose money. Ticket prices will be raised again.

I’ll be offered over 2 grand for my finals tickets and wince as i turn down the offers.

horde will continue to dominate alliance in rivendare. (211 healers geared better than me on the server, less than 40 are alliance). I do not get the pretty orange mace. I still won’t use my mic.

This year will be a very good year and life will start improving for everyone as we turn the corner.

K, those sound good.

The Spurs, Celtics, Cavs, Magic, and Lakers have a good chance to win 60+ games. It is rare to see multiple teams win 60+ games in a season, much less 6 different teams including the Blazers.

I expect the Mavs, Clippers, and Thunder to improve in the western conference. The Hornets and Jazz should be more of a threat when healthy. The Suns will most likely drop off and the Nuggets may take a small step back as well. Houston is rebuilding.

All in all, I expect 57 wins and the Northwest division. A meager 3 game improvement doesn’t seem to be much, but I think the Blazers will be a much better team.

’Cause this is something I would totally feel more comfortable in being able to test drive some of the bandwagons before jumping on one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Basketball_Association_teams_by_single_season_win_pct

Not cracking 60 this year. That is a very difficult bar to reach, and Portland is simply not a 60 win team… yet.

WINS:
I’ll say 56… with only slight regular season improvement from last year in the win column… HOWEVER, Portland wins in the first round and takes the quarterfinals to game 7. We will see great improvement in the team’s chemistry and playoff experience/readiness.

AWARDS
Oden is a top candidate for MIP, while Roy makes the All-Star team (a distant 2nd to Bryant in the SG votes) and Aldridge sneaks in as an injury replacement.
McMillan considered for coach of the year… but will be edged out in the end.
Kobe takes MVP #2… with another close race with Lebron. Having won the championship previously, and producing another 60+ win team on the verge of championship #2, will win over the hearts of the voters. Roy finishes 4th in the MVP votes.

OTHER NBA
Duncan and the Spurs rise up to challenge the Lakers in the West finals, taking them to game 7 in LA. However, Kobe will prove to be too much, and the Lakers head to the finals and take the back-to-back. Sucks… but it’s just the truth people.
Boston makes one last charge to the Finals after taking out Howard and the Magic in the East finals. Lose to LA in 6.
All the while, Darius Miles continues to make copious amounts of stripper rain money without doing jack.

Oden will burden the team with a few losses as he develops his game. And while I think Millers game does help Portlands defense against elite guards, Portland’s defense is still not good enough yet to propel the blazers above 60 wins.

Of course I’ll be happy to be wrong (in the right direction!).

INCREASES FROM LAST SEASON:

Roy’s 3s
Oden’s Dunks, Blocks, Boards, and Cardio
Jered’s Frustration
LMA’s All Star Appearances and RPG
Rudy’s Assists
Team Wins, Assists, Steals, and Fast Break Points
Traffic to Blazersedge

DECREASES FROM LAST SEASON:
Blake’s MPG
Roy’s MPG and Nagging Injuries
Team Turnovers
Outlaw’s FG Attempts

Too chicken to go 60 wins but we finish 2nd in the west. Book it!

I predict we finish one game behind the L*kers (63-19) for 2nd in the West. The final four will be Portland, LA, Cleveland and Boston. LA-Portland will be a heated battle that we lose in LA in 7 games. Greg will average 26 minutes! Outlaw will be traded. Blake or Bayless will be traded. Joel will get in at least 2 fights. Sergio will torch us as one of our 20 loses comes against the lowly Kings (Von Wafer did it).

He takes a seat in a wooden chair, stage center, and pours himself a single shot of whiskey, which he drinks. He then wipes his mouth with the dirty sleeve of his pirate coat and leans back in his dilapidated chair. Spotlight dims. Crowd goes hush.

“It was a DARK and STORMY night in the Rose City when Durant and his O’CURSED kin DARED to step back into the arena of which had handed them a defeating SO FOUL. A crushing SO DEEP, that it tore the sinew from the BONE and left small children a crying for their mothers.

ARrrrr…

And on this night the two competitors whom didn’t even play the same position, yet were constantly being judged in their pre-larval stage with each other by those SCURVY-DOG lovin’ media types came to give their all to the game they loved. And give it their all THEY DID and with the game tied at 214 points each and ten seconds left it came down to SINGLE SHOT! Oklahoma had the ball.

ARrrr….

Duranty jumped into the air like a seagull out of a potato gun with his yellow eyes on the booty of the rim, when out of nowhere a man so FIERCE. A man SO BRUTAL. A BEAST so WANTON that wolves HOWLED whenever he ate a sandwich LEAPED to meet his FATE! LIGHTNING STRUCK! And the lights went out.

ARrrr….

A single spotlight shines down on the crushed and broken form of Kevin Durant. Greg Oden is bent over him holding his hand in one hand and a single flower with the other hand. A tear slowly slides down Greg’s cheek.

“The media created us Greg. And now the media has destroyed us. When will Blazersedgers learn that what they are doing to us is wrong? When…will…they….lear…….”

Kevin eyes go dark and the tear falls from Greg’s cheek amd lands on the flower, causing it to burst into flames. Greg picks up the pieces of Kevin’s poor, horribly mutilated form and slowly walks out of the arena accompanied by music of a Wagnerian theme, per Act III of The Valkyries (although the music comes from the overture to Tannhäuser).

Camera pans to flower in the floor. Crushed in the spotlight.

FADE OUT
CREDITS ROLL

last season the general consensus was that if you predicted 50 or more wins you were a homer. The team vastly overachieved to hit 41-41 so we couldn’t expect another large increase in the win total. Most analysts had us 3rd in the NW division and 7th or 8th seed in the West. Mr. Hollinger even penciled us in at 42 wins. Of course, everyone knows we got 54 wins.

I’m getting a very similar vibe this off season. A team that looks like it overachieved. Plenty of early predictions are overlooking the Blazers (relatively speaking). People are getting called homers for predicting more than 60 wins (although, there seems to be a lot more unbridled optimism).

Once again, I want to play the part of the realist. I predicted roughly 45-47 wins last year. This year I’m reluctant to say 60. I’m conflicted because it’s too easy to get swept away by the tide of homerism, but at the same time the Blazers keep performing better than I expect.

In the end, I’d rather be happy they outdid my prediction than be disappointed they didn’t perform up to some random expectation I built up in my head before the season even started.

58 wins

Edgers:

Having tried but found myself unable to ignore Dave’s challenge, I decided to expend a bit more thought and energy than is my custom, and I hope that the resulting oeuvre, humble though it be, will earn your approval. I have anticipated several immediate objections, namely: "This should be a Fanpost", "This should be a Fanshot", and "You should have posted this on O-live". Such critiques do have merit, but I ask your forbearance.

I have long admired a certain analytical style that is perhaps best exemplified by the numerous learned epistles of jscot. Therefore, I have attempted to imbue my prognostication with a spirit of quantitative and scientifically-rooted objectivity. Interestingly, the outcome of this studied effort appears indistinguishable from that based on wild speculation, the mode I most often employ. Be that as it may, let me say a few words regarding my methodology.

Considering the twelve players most likely to appear on the official roster based on information available today, I noted that each one is characterized by a primary and secondary nominative property, and that the respective instantiations of these properties themselves have components that may readily be mapped to a subset of the natural numbers, U = {1, 2, 3, …, 26}. Thus, for each player, X, we have that m = P(X) and n = S(X), where m and n may reduced using a well-defined operation to m’ and n’, belonging to the set D = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}. Finally we sum all resulting m’ and n’ values for all the players, respectively, and these totals are taken to bracket the expected number of wins for the season. Those who have studied computer science will recognize that this algorithm implements the often-observed GIGO queuing system.1 The intermediate assignments and calculations shown below should make this all quite clear:

P(LaMarcus Aldridge) = 12+1+13+1+18+3+21+19 = 88 => 8+8 = 16. 1+6 = 7.
P(Nicolas Batum) = 14+9+3+15+12+1+19 = 73 => 7+3= 10 => 1+0 = 1.
P(Jerryd Bayless) = 10+5+18+18+25+4 = 80 => 8+0 = 8.
P(Steve Blake) = 19+20+5+22+5 = 71 => 7+1 = 8.
P(Dante Cunningham) = 4+1+14+20+5 = 44 => 4+4 = 8.
P(Rudy Fernandez) = 18+21+4+25 = 68 => 6+8 = 14 => 1+4 = 5.
P(Andre Miller) = 1+14+4+18+5 = 42 => 4+2 = 6.
P(Greg Oden) = 7+18+5+7 = 37. 3+7 = 10 => 1+0 = 1.
P(Travis Outlaw) = 20+18+1+22+9+19 = 89 => 8+9 = 17 => 1+7 = 8.
P(Joel Przybilla) = 10+15+5+12 = 42 => 4+2 = 6.
P(Brandon Roy) = 2+18+1+14+4+15+14 = 68 => 6+8 = 14 => 1+4 = 5.
P(Martell Webster) = 13+1+18+20+5+12+12 = 81 => 8+1 = 9.

P(ALL) = 7+1+8+8+8+5+6+1+8+6+5+9 = 72.

S(LaMarcus Aldridge) = 1+12+4+18+9+4+7+5 = 60 => 6+0 = 6.
S(Nicolas Batum) = 2+1+20+21+13 = 57. 5+7 = 12 => 1+2 = 3.
S(Jerryd Bayless) = 2+1+25+12+5+19+19 = 83 => 8+3 = 11 => 1+1 = 2.
S(Steve Blake) = 2+12+1+11+5 = 31 => 3+1 = 4.
S(Dante Cunningham) = 3+21+14+14+9+14+7+8+1+13 = 104 => 1+0+4 = 5.
S(Rudy Fernandez) = 6+5+18+14+1+14+4+5+26 = 93 => 9+3 = 12. 1+2 = 3.
S(Andre Miller) = 13+9+12+12+5+18 = 69 => 6+9 = 15 = 1+5 = 6.
S(Greg Oden) = 15+4+5+14 = 38. 3+8 = 11 => 1+1 = 2.
S(Travis Outlaw) = 15+21+20+12+1+23 = 82 => 8+2 = 10. 1+0 = 1.
S(Joel Przybilla) = 16+18+26+25+2+9+12+12+1 = 121 => 1+2+1 = 5.
S(Brandon Roy) = 18+15+25 = 58. 5+8 = 13 => 1+3 = 4.
S(Martell Webster) = 23+5+2+19+20+5+18 = 92 => 9+2 = 11 => 1+1 = 2.

S(ALL) = 6+3+2+4+5+3+6+2+1+5+4+2 = 43.

Therefore, S(ALL) = 43 <= Wins <= P(ALL) = 72, and
Wins expected = (43+72)/2 = 115/2 = 57.5 ~ 58.

As things presently stand, it looks as though the Blazers are guaranteed to have at least a winning season, 43W/39L, but could potentially set a club record with 72W/10L. However, the expected win total of 58, although a slight improvement over last season’s mark, seems too conservative. But note that if Jeff Pendergraph is signed, the situation improves dramatically:

P(Jeff Pendergraph) = 10+5+6+6 = 27 => 2+7 = 9.
S(Jeff Pendergraph) = 16+5+14+4+5+18+7+18+1+16+8 = 112 => 1+1+2 = 4.

Now, S(ALL) = 47 <= Wins <= P(ALL) = 81, while wins expected = (47+81)/2 = 128/2 = 64. This seems much more reasonable and Pritchard will almost certainly sign the rookie big man.

As always, care must be taken to avoid drawing unwarranted conclusions from the sorts of data we’ve been examining here. In particular, note that P and S values for individuals are not entirely reliable indicators of likely achievement levels. For example, it would be incorrect to assume that Greg Oden is due for a poor season simply because P(Greg Oden) = 1 and S(Greg Oden) = 2. Individual results are always subject to a type of modification known as the "Vandeweghe effect". Interestingly, we see that the Blazers will enjoy greater success if their season is more in line with the P(ALL) value than the S(ALL) one. Future research might be undertaken to see if P(ALL) correlates with the informal, but useful attribute of team "chemistry".

1 Garbage In, Garbage Out

If we lost all of these games (listed below) and NO OTHER games, we’d finish 63-19. Realistically, let’s throw in 5 more “bonehead” losses to mediocre teams, or off nights. That’s how I arrived at 58-24. I still believe our season will be defined in part on December play this year. If we even split our back-backs, I’m calling a 60 win season POSSIBLE, but not probable. A lot depends on our success on the road vs. playoff teams. We had a pretty terrible track record last year.

Tough road games which could be losses:

11/28, POR @ UTAH
12/11, POR @ CLE
12/19, POR @ ORL
12/20, POR @ MIA (Back to back, @ ORL & MIA)
12/22, POR @ DAL
12/23, POR @ SA (Back to back, @ DAL & SA)
1/22, POR @ BOS
1/23, POR @ DET (Back to back, @ BOS & DET)
1/30, POR @ DAL
2/3, POR @ UTAH
3/7, POR @ DEN
4/1, POR @ DEN (With the divsion on the line, probably..)

Tough home games which could be losses:

10/29, DEN @ POR
11/6, SA @ POR
1/10, CLE @ POR
1/15, ORL @ POR
2/4, SA @ POR
2/6, LAL @ POR (I hope we win both, but I suspect they may split this year. Call it 50/50)
2/19, BOS @ POR

Home:39-2
Road: 26-15
Blazers finally dominate the teams equal to or worse than them on the road. Roy is an easy all star, LaMarcus breaks out and averages 21 and 10 and is also an allstar, Oden makes the best of the open looks that andre gets him and averages 15 and 12 and is the starting center on the allstar team.

Here are the losses:
Either @OKC or @Houston on first back to back
@ NO
@ Charlotte (B2B)
@ ATL
@ GS
@Utah
Houston on 4 days rest
@Clev
@Orlando
@ Miami (B2B)
@SAS (B2B)
LAL
Cleve
@Phil
@Boston
@Utah
@Phx (B2B)
Boston
@Den
Dallas
@NO
@Den
@LAL

36-5 at home and 23-18 on the road

Best guess

1. Oden will play for longer stretches and impact the team’s defensive efficiency.
2. Martell Webster’s return will have a negative impact, because there just aren’t enough minutes to go around to keep everyone content.
3. The backcourt tandem of Miller/Roy will make the team less efficient offensively. Because Miller can’t space the floor, teams will pack the paint. Without an established low-post scoring threat, and one less 3pt shooter on the floor, the Blazers will have to settle for low percentage shots.

So, 1 step forward, 2 steps back.

Playoff seedings w/ *notes:

1. LAL*best record in the league
2. DEN*best home record in the league
3. NOH*MVP season for Paul
4. SAS*Blair starts, McDyess finishes.
5. DAL*an up-and-down season due to lack of quality big men
6. POR*1st round exit to eventual WC Finalists, the NOH
7. UTA*dangerous team after trade deadline: hinrich(!) in/boozer out
8. HOU*Adelman finally wins COY

60 wins.

Improvement from Batum and Oden proved to be the catalyst. The Blazers have two players on the Western Conference all-star squad, with Rudy meriting serious consideration for sixth man of the year. Oden averages 15/11 in 30 minutes while playing about 70 games.

and Size 10 hat