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BE + KP2 Podcast Episode 4

Basketball Prospectus's Kevin Pelton and I are back after a one-week hiatus with episode 4 of our newly-christened basketball podcast. Slightly shorter episode this week but we crunched a bunch of content into 46 minutes.

Click through for an episode preview and iTunes download instructions.

Star-divide

This week's episode has a short intro and 3 full segments.  

Intro:

The official naming of the podcast.
Briefly reminiscing about collecting basketball cards.

Segment 1:

LaMarcus Aldridge: where does he stand, what's next and is there a better, younger 4 in the NBA?
The evolution of the Power Forward position: has any position changed more over the last decade than the 4?
When and why do 7 foot 4s fall in love with their jumpers?
How does Blake Griffin fit in? A hybrid between throwback and modern 4s? What about Rashard Lewis? Paul Millsap? David Lee?
How Steve Novak helped me win an argument over KP2.

Segment 2:

Inflated scorekeeping: a threat to the sanctity of basketball?
Kevin's experiences keeping score over the years.
Discussing the over-reliance on box scores: How "Groupthink" develops in the post-game locker room hallways and makes its way into game recaps.
Could more advanced box scores be helpful? What would they include?

Segment 3:

A number-crunching post preview: What is the relationship between roster retention and winning percentage? Does winning cause roster retention or does roster retention cause winning?
A look back at 40 years of Blazers rosters: when was there the most turnover? The least? Which 4 Blazers played together the longest? Which 2 players played together the longest?
What makes the last 6 years of Blazers history so remarkable from a winning percentage standpoint? Why is this good news for Kevin Pritchard?

Musical Interludes:

Ahmad - Back in the Day (remix)
Boom Tho - Internet Dominance [first heard over at the ridiculously awesome Ridiculous Upside]
AZ - I'm Back

-------------

Right click and save as to Download BE and KP2 Podcast Episode 004.

The mp3 is 42 megabytes.

Remember there are some mildly pg-13 musical interludes.

-------------

Thanks to prezofdeath we have these easy iTunes setup instructions (takes less than 60 seconds).  

  1. Open Itunes. Select "Advanced" in the menu at the top.
  2. Click "Subscribe to Podcast..."
  3. Enter the following code into the box that opens up: http://feeds.feedburner.com/thedontoniowingcast
  4. All of our past episodes should load in your podcasts folder. You can then download any/all of the episodes that you would like. Future episodes should then load automatically.

Note: You may need to close/open Itunes for the episodes to appear and the downloads to start. Make sure you're running the latest version of Itunes.  If you are having any difficulty, just download using the link posted above. More advanced iTunes functionality coming shortly.

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

Comment 16 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Great work getting up to speed with the iTunes Ben

I usually find my podcasts by searching for them under a “Power Search” in the iTunes Store. Yours didn’t show up that way for some reason, but the method you describe here worked great.

I’ll be listening to your podcasts shortly.

by MavetheGreat on Aug 28, 2009 10:53 AM PDT reply actions  

there’s an approval process that we are in the middle of before the power search thing works. prez is on it. hopefully it will be ready in a few weeks. all praise due to prez.

by Ben Golliver on Aug 28, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Transcription excerpts forthcoming

Work is slow today. I’ll probably just do b-ball related discussions.

by jiminut on Aug 28, 2009 11:05 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm thinking

you’re not a baseball fan?

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 28, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love to go to games and I check the scores

In all sports, I hardly ever read anything but the final score and the write up.

by tominhawaii on Aug 29, 2009 3:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

thanks

for accepting “the challenge”

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 28, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

green

thank you Jiminut! – elgin

Without you out there, we're nowhere here

by 22baylor on Aug 28, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lovin' the recs

Here’s Segment 3. I gave up early on Segment 2 since it’s less Blazer specific. Props to my inspiration, two4larue

Segment 3:

BEN: … This was inspired by a post Dave wrote a few days ago where he was asking which Blazers are going to be on the team three years from now. The big problem facing the Blazers is they have all these young talented Blazers who are looking to get pretty large contracts in the next couple years. And that’ll lead to some really difficult decisions for Kevin Pritchard. Although he could potentially pay all these players it would go way over the luxury tax line, so it’s probably unlikely that all the players who Blazers fans want to see stay, will stay…. Most people seem to think that there is going to be a pretty large percentage of the team staying.

So I looked back at last year’s team. One of the things that’s been lost in the shuffle of this offseason as the Blazers made runs at different players like Hedo and Millsap, is that this has been a quiet offseason for the Blazers. With the addition of Andre Miller, the addition of Dante Cunningham, the addition of Jeff Pendergraff shortly, and only the subtraction of Sergio and Channing and a few of the end of the bench guys, otherwise it’s been a straightforward summer with a huge percentage of the guys coming back from last season. So that seemed unusual. Teams don’t always keep their top 8 or 9 guys in tact from year to year. Guys go in and out. Every team deals with that. Look at the L*kers, they lost Ariza, the Magic lost Hedo, they lost Courtney Lee. Basically every contending team lost guys and brought in guys. The Blazers are sort of the exception this year.

So I asked you to help me go back and look through the entire Blazers history to see how roster retention ended up interfacing with winning percentage because my first thought and I think what a lot of people assume is that if you’re not sending a lot of players out and you’re not bringing in new players, that probably means you’re pretty darn good and pretty close to where you want to be. I think that’s a mantra that Kevin Pritchard has repeated over the summer, that we like our roster, we like our players…. So why don’t you explain math-wise what we did to look the relationship between retention and winning percentage or team success.

KP: Well, first off, I give you credit because you did all the dirty work… There’s a couple different ways to look at it. One is the percentage of guys year over year that end up still on the roster. The other is a little different, is the average length of tenure on the team for everybody on the roster. For example, in the early early to mid 90’s, the Blazers were no necessarily unique in not turning over their roster each year because some of those end of the bench guys were changing… but they had the core group of Clyde, Porter, Kersey, Duckworth, Williams… That shows up more when you look at the average experience of the team…. So the first way to look at it was the relationship between average experience and the team’s success. And you find that there is a pretty good relationship except for those mid-90’s teams because after the peak of the finals appearances then the record starts filtering down a little each year but at the same time that team was getting more experienced each year until the trade of Drexler to Houston and cleaning house…. So you find a straight line for a while and then it goes down.

The second thing to look at is how much is this getting driven by keeping a successful team together and break up an unsuccessful team, and there you find an even closer relationship, that the players that return the next year tends to be controlled by the winning percentage the previous season. So it seems to me the relationship goes more towards a winning team causes you to keep the team together…

BEN: The Blazers have had a pretty interesting history. They started off as an expansion team so the turnover rates were pretty high when they were getting things together. Obviously the late 70’s was the only title they ever won and the retention rate really starts up at that point because like you were saying… they were trying to keep those guys around. Yet they still had some guys coming in and out for injuries or contract demands the owners didn’t want to meet. But like you said, the most steady time in the franchise’s history is interestingly the early 90’s. And that’s almost the time when the fans were most into the team as well…. And once you get the fans behind them it gets even tougher to trade those guys…. There’s a lot in play… Fan support can drive retention. Even taking Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, if they don’t get LaMarcus signed people are going to be ticked off. Same thing next year with Oden even if he doesn’t quite live up to expectations, the people expect him to be a Blazer for life and obviously the same thing for Brandon Roy. So it was interesting to see what’s driving retention. Is it the wins, is it the fan support that comes with the wins, is it just dollars and cents of the contracts… and that was the most interesting thing is that Drexler, Kersey, Porter and Duckworth were all teammates for longer period than any other four Blazers in franchise history. Those four guys were together for more seasons than any other players from 1970 until now. And Drexler and Kersey were together more as two players than any other two players throughout the franchise’s history.

So that brings us to today, in that Roy and Aldridge could potentially be the guys that pass Kersey and Drexler because they came in the same year and both looking to sign 4 and 5 year extensions. So we’re actually in a period of history-making in that when it comes to retention it really just comes down to dollars and cents, about who’s going to make the cut.

KP: No matter how successful a team is, there’s always going to be some turnover as you look to get to that next level or what have you, and realistically the most important part of that research related to Dave’s post is no matter what you do, you’re not going to have all of these guys back here in four years. You have to start mentally preparing yourself for the fact that the highest percentage of guys with at least four years of tenure was a group of about six guys in the early 90’s. So you have to start thinking about who are the six guys who are going to be here, and then everyone else, ultimately is going to be a temporary part of the puzzle.

BEN: No doubt, and I think if you have to pick six guys right now people would lock in on four real quick. They’d say, Brandon, LaMarcus, Nic Batum and Greg Oden. So to think of all the rest of the talent on the Blazers roster you have to pick two of those guys who are going to still be there in a couple years that’s pretty crazy to think about. But it’s a historic time of transition in the Blazers history. That’s another thing that popped up when we were looking at the research in terms of winning percentage, is the largest drop over a 3-year period in terms of winning percentage was from 2003 to 2006. In other words, that crater of 2006 was the absolute worst over a 3-year span that the team had done in its entire history. And then the best 3-year span was from 2006 until the present. So talk about statistics being on Kevin Pritchard’s side, he’s presided over the biggest rise in winning percentage over the entire 40 year history of the Blazers… But the idea that that’s going to set even higher expectations going forward is just going to make his life more difficult. If you could keep six guys from this roster right now, would you take all four that I just mentioned?

KP: Yeah.

BEN: Which two do you keep in addition to those four.

KP: Well in pure talent Rudy has to be in that group but since he essentially plays the same position as Brandon Roy or at the very least one of Brandon Roy and Nicolas Batum makes him a difficult fit. Przybilla and Blake are probably out because of age. Andre Miller’s out because of age. So it’s not that hard actually. I could make a case for why a lot of guys on the roster wouldn’t be here in four years. I mean, Outlaw, who knows if he’s gonna be around next year. Cunningham and Pendergraff are too young to really think about that sort of thing. I don’t know. I’m not a huge Martell Webster fan, I think he’s gonna get lost in the shuffle behind Rudy and Nic Batum this year, so he could be on the outs depending on whether you could move his contract extension or not.

BEN: There’s always Bayless. (both chuckle)

KP: You get your core and that’s the San Antonio model is you have that core in their case of Parker, Genobli and Duncan, and around it look at how much they’ve changed since they won their championship in 2003. Think about who was there in 2003 when they won the championship – that’s only 7 years ago. That’s a longer period than we’re talking about. Steven Jackson played a key role for that team. Speedy Claxton was big for them off the bench. He’s barely playing basketball anymore.

BEN: Alright, so what we’re basically saying is, we don’t expect a lot of turnover in the very short term but there’s gonna absolutely have to be turnover in the 3-year window just because it’s never not happened in Blazers history. So everyone should look for our research being presented soon. It looks at Blazers history, the relationship in terms of retention, in terms of how many guys are sticking around from the previous season, and winning percentage. As Kevin mentioned we did see that there was a relatively demonstrable relationship between these two things but like you said it was more about the winning leading to the percentage, we’re hypothesizing, rather than the retention leading to the winning.

by jiminut on Aug 28, 2009 3:10 PM PDT reply actions   3 recs

all I can say is

better you than me!

(much better)

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 28, 2009 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

keeping "the core" together

There’s a lot to be said for continuity and young players learning how to gel together. It helps at both ends of the court when everybody is on the same page and they build trust in their non-verbal communication and synergy. Some of the obstacles to keeping the core together are playing time, and how young players want to make money in the prime of their careers. It takes a strong leader and some unselfish teammates to keep “the band” together, even in the best of times.

The ‘77 team was hailed as one of the most cohesive units ever, but as soon as adversity hit (and it became clear that Weinberg and company couldn’t afford to pay Lucas, Hollins, etc) the show closed on the road and a lot of young Blazer fans got their heart’s broken. KP’s done a good job of drafting and acquiring high-quality kids and Brandon Roy is going to keep everyone “in line” so anyone who starts complaining about not getting enough shots or PT instead of making sacrifices to win isn’t going to be around for long. (We’ve already seen this to some degree with Jack and Sergio)

Another factor in who “the keepers” will be is the opponents. Right now the L*kers are king and part of Portland’s roster building strategy should be to put a squad together that can knock ‘em off their perch. Is this the main consideration? Maybe not, but I’ve seen it many times in Blazer history. “We” had to get a center to check Kareem, so we drafted Bowie. We needed a running team to keep up with Magic and “Showtime” so Clyde and Kersey were drafted. You get tired of losing to L*A every year in the playoffs so you assemble a team that can compete with them and hopefully beat them the next time. Then, once you win the west the goal is to beat LeBron or whoever the new “beast” in the east may be.

(You may be thinking “we’re not going to worry about those other guys, we’ll just put our best team together and play our style and let them match-up with us!” This works great if you’re Jack Ramsay and you win it all in your first season as head coach in a new city, but most of the time building a championship roster is a work in progress.)

And that’s why the same 2,3,4 players don’t stay together for 10 years. Injuries happen, expectations change. Somebody gets an offer from another team and KP decides he can’t match it and maintain fiscal responsibility with the payroll (or, the Vulcans step in and say “no more luxury tax dollars, we’ve got to break even!”) Something always comes up…just think, 12 months ago nobody would’ve said that Nic Batum was a member of the “core” but just look at him now!

My advice remains: don’t get married to all the current players. Sure, Roy, LMA and Oden are gonna be around for awhile, and hopefully they’ll stay healthy and win a bunch of rings. But guys like Travis and Rudy will have to continue to “settle” for complimentary roles or find their fame and fortune elsewhere

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Aug 28, 2009 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Dontonio Wingcast?

Will anyone else ever call the podcast that? Doubt it.

by StatRaven on Sep 4, 2009 4:50 PM PDT reply actions  

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